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PMR: Aviles was 2008's third best defensive SS

Following up on yesterday's posting regarding PMR's 2008 team defense results, today we find another metric that has Mike "Avilanche" Aviles as one of the top defenders at shortstop in 2008, behind only Marco Scutaro (!) and the ageless Omar Vizquel. Jeter is way down... although not as far down as Tony Pena, Jr.

Also posted are the rankings for the second basemen. Grudz ended up just below Alexei Ramirez and Luis Castillo, while Alberto Callaspo is 5th-from-last, wedged between defensive monsters Aaron Miles and Ray Durham.

As always, the usual caveats about defensive metrics apply, particularly with regard to a one season (or less) sample in relation to to "true talent."

Link 2 months ago Futurama_ep72_tiny devil_fingers Comment 55 comments 1 recs |

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I guess not having good access to baseball broadcasts

means I missed out on that particular cliche.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 7, 2008 2:59 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Furcal is a pipe dream (with a bad back)...

Stick with Mikey at SS for 2009 and see what you’ve got after next year. Callaspo has played well enough to plug him in at 2B and the 9-hole.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 7, 2008 3:28 PM EST   0 recs

agree

we really need more information to evaluate both of them (half a season isn’t enough). They both have earned the right to prove they can/can’t be a part of the future at ss/2b

by ZeppelinDZ on Nov 7, 2008 4:11 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

This is why

We must land a FA shortstop like Rafael Furcal!!!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 7, 2008 3:52 PM EST   0 recs

If we do give a year to Aviles and Callaspo in the starting roles,

which I am very ok with, who do we keep as backup(s)? Pena(ugh) and Herman(semi-ugh?) Herman is up for arb., right?…….

by Steve Hovley on Nov 7, 2008 6:25 PM EST   0 recs

right at the moment I would go with...

the .400 obp Dominican league guy… TPJ because we would need another ss.

or we could go with both of them, but then that does not leave room for 3 1b/dh types.

unless we go with an 11 man pitching staff.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Nov 7, 2008 6:39 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

or

Like I said in another thread, you dump ‘em both and get an SS that won’t embarrass with the bat like Cesar Izturis or Alex Cora.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 7, 2008 6:51 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Ugh

I’ve made fun of that guy so much…

And he sucks without TURF.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 7, 2008 7:25 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Cesar and Alex

Are still pretty embarrassing with the bat. Izturis OPS+ 67, Cora 75

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 7, 2008 9:22 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

If the guys on the roster

I’d say German. Definitelly shoud be offered arbitration. Can’t play defense for crap, but he’s a useful bench bat and can fill in at a number of spots. Might also have some trade value.

TPJ — don’t trust him. Bring him back on a minor league deal or something. Good guy, potentially useful defensive SS, but guys like him are a dime a dozen.

If they “need” to sign someone, assuming Callaspo and Aviles are in ( and I do think the Royals should at least inquire on Furcal and O-Dog as a partner for Aviles. Who knows…), either Izturis or Punto, depending on who comes cheaper. Maybe the Jays will release John MacDonald (sort of a TPJ 2007).

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 7, 2008 8:29 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Pena and German

Are perfectly acceptable in reserve roles IMO. Pena gives you a good glove man and German can walk a little and steal a base or two. Its not like most teams have awesome backup infielders.

And in Omaha I’d try to get that Callix Crabbe guy in the minor league FA thread, and of course JASON SMITH NOW!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 7, 2008 9:20 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I agree with half of that

German is a perfectly acceptable bench player. What you said about him, plus defensive versatility (if not high quality versatility). Pena’s inconsistent defense isn’t good enough to make up for his horrendous bat, even for a bench player. Pena is a toolsy project who is much too old to be a worthwhile project.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 7, 2008 9:22 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Yeah no Pena

He’s kind of in the Jeter school of cool looking plays <> great defensive player

by PopeSoria on Nov 8, 2008 6:22 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

If Aviles is in the bottom half of SS's next year

…are we going to wonder what suddenly went wrong with his defensive skills, or will we re-evaluate the defensive metrics?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 7, 2008 9:18 PM EST   0 recs

Prolly the metrics

We still seem to be in the prototype stages of developing accurate defensive metrics.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 7, 2008 9:21 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Enthusiastically agreed

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 7, 2008 9:23 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

The metrics have a long way to go

but I’d say that it would be smarter to say (depending on how far down the list he is, and what his expected-actual numger is) that he wasn’t as good as he seemed this year. I thought that even two full seasons wasn’t quite enough to get at a player’s “true talent” fielding, so why would 2/3 of a year.

Whatever you think of his true talent or what he’ll do going forward (and I don’t know, but I’m more optimistic now then when I read about the impression people got of him in the minors), I think it’s pretty cool that Aviles did well in pretty much all the metrics for at least this part of the year. It’s of like this offensvie performance — even if you don’t think he can keep it up (and I have more doubts about that than I do about his defense), the fact remains that he did do it this year, and it was fun.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 7, 2008 9:37 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Another way to say it

If he does end up hitting .280/.310/.400 next year and slumps to a -5 SS, he’ll still be only a slightly below league average player (say, around 1.7 WAR) at minimum salary. The Royals could do worse. They could have a slightly above average SS (say, 2.4 WAR) at $20M

Anyway, while the various metrics vary greatly one some players (Ichiro is a notorious example), here’s what I’ve found on Aviles for this year:

Dewans: +15 plays
PMR: +18 plays
Inaz: +5.5 runs (although that includes all his positions, and he didn’t do so well, statistically, in the limited time he had at 2B and 3B)

[Insert all the qualifications I’m putting now on all my posts re: defense that are nonetheless ignored.]

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 7, 2008 9:46 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I mostly agree with that
I’d say that it would be smarter to say (depending on how far down the list he is, and what his expected-actual numger is) that he wasn’t as good as he seemed this year. I thought that even two full seasons wasn’t quite enough to get at a player’s "true talent" fielding, so why would 2/3 of a year.

Very true, and I was trying to get at some of this. One of the limitations of one season of fielding metrics (even if those were “perfected” metrics), is that you are dealing with an inherently small sample size. One season of hitting data includes many data points. One season of fielding data has many fewer data points. That’s just the way fielding is. And if we’re dealing with data on 2/3 of a season, the sample size is even smaller and less reliable.

My point is that what the best fielding metrics say about Aviles’s 2008 MLB fielding is instructive as to how good of a fielder he is, but it is far from dispositive. Current advanced fielding metrics have their limitations. Looking at them over just one season is a further limitation on their meaningfulness and reliability. Having merely 2/3 of a season of data limits their utility even further.

All of this isn’t to say that Aviles is really a bad fielder. Nor is it to say that he isn’t a good or valuable player. I’m just saying that when evaluating how good of a fielder Aviles is, we shouldn’t necessarily jump to the conclusion that he’s a good fielder based on these 2008 metrics, much less that he’s one of the best in the league.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 7, 2008 10:11 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

that's where scouting comes in

I know I’ve been name-dropped Tom Tango (but with a name like that, isn’t it just made for being dropped? it’s awesome) too much around here and peopel are probably (understandably) rolling their eyes at me for doing so, but, hey, I’m not smart enough to think of this stuff myself, so what the hell. Anyway, I think this quote from him really gets at the proper relationship of “scouting and stats,” and, although he meant it generally, is particularly applicable to fielding:

The quickest explanation of sabermetrics was given by Theo Epstein early in his GM career, when he said that he sees statistics and scouting as two lenses of the glasses. Unsaid by him is that the glasses is sabermetrics. So, anyone who thinks of the choice as beer or nuts, ignores the reality that the choice is beer and nuts.

Also, the more performance statistics you have, the less value you can place in scouting, because at some point under certain conditions, the reality of what actually transpired is more important in determining what will happen than what the scout thinks that player will be doing. And vice-versa of course, if the performance numbers was based on small samples.

Now if I can just figure out how to ask him a question without making a total fool of myself…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 7, 2008 10:40 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Great quote

There are a couple of rock solid and extremely important ideas in that quote (good scouting and good stat/performance analysis are both extremely important, and the inverse relationship between amount of statistical data and the importance of scouting information).

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 8, 2008 12:34 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Mmmm

Beer and nuts.

What’s this about defense?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 9, 2008 2:47 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

while we're here

I was looking at the GIF version of the plus minus leaders and trailers for the year that I found somewhere but now can’t relocate (and I can’t upload from my computer, in any case, I think that might be a violation of fair use)… All year we heard that Gordon was -20 in the field and all that… But the list of “trailers” I have stops at Cantu at -11 plays… It’s interesting, because while I had been assuming Gordon came out as a below-average (but closer to average than replacement level) 3B, if he’s -10 plays, that’s -8 runs, and I have him about that much above average offense + position… well, anyway

In other words, does anyone know where Dewan’s has Gordon for the whole of 2008? For that matter, can we get a list of the Royals, or at least he major players we care about?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 7, 2008 10:10 PM EST   0 recs

Isn't Dewan's +/- available at BillJames.com?

And aren’t you a member/subscriber there?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 7, 2008 10:13 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I don't subscribe to anything, yet

I’m a grad student supported by his wife partner (my NewSpeak chip malfunctions sometimes), so I need to play it cool. For now, my “baseball hobby spending” is purely fantasy related. I’m going to add a BP subscription too, although the more I find of free stuff on the net, the less enthused I am about it. I guess it would mainly be for PECOTA and it’s application to fantasy at this point (enter Morse with a bloody cleaver).

I’ll probably subscribe to Bill James at some point next season… I know… you’re still reeling from the revelation that I haven’t subscribed to Prospectus… When does the new PECOTA stuff come out? Would that be a good tie to do it?

I finallly figued out how to convert RZR/OOZ to runs pretty quickly on my own, but the results were so weird I still wasn’t happy with it.

I did re-find the Dewan’s list of the leaders/trailers here.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 7, 2008 10:35 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I’ll probably subscribe to Bill James at some point next season… I know… you’re still reeling from the revelation that I haven’t subscribed to Prospectus

My heart skipped a beat. I don’t know how I can go on now.

When does the new PECOTA stuff come out? Would that be a good tie to do it?

Mid-Januaryish, and yes.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 8, 2008 12:36 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Alex

Was +6 in ’07, -9 in ’08.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 9, 2008 2:49 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Cool, thanks

-9 ain’t great, but it’s better than it looked like it was going to be.

How’d Teahen end up?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 9, 2008 3:01 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

aviles

2-for-4 with a double in his first puerto rico winter league game. then 0-for-1 with a walk before being taken out of the game.

if he’s injured……………………………well let’s just pray that’s not the case.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 7, 2008 11:43 PM EST   0 recs

Orlando Cabrera, come on down!

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 7, 2008 11:45 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Pena has 8 walks in 47 AB's

CLEARLY HE HAS LEARNED TO DRAW A WALK1!11

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 7, 2008 11:48 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

!!!!!11!!11!!

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 7, 2008 11:48 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

thank god he's pre-arb

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 7, 2008 11:51 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

he had a couple phone calls with Seitzer

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 8, 2008 12:36 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

LOL

In the New Historical Abstract, James talks about a simulation experiment to determine if there was any player worth walking every time. Long story short, even in the worst imaginable lineup, walking Babe Ruth every time is worse than handling him as you normally would. A LOT worse. Crappy cleanup hitters end up with like 151 RBI.

What I’m saying is, if TPJ walked 600 times next year, it is quite unlikely they’d be clinching in game 162 — they’d probably win at least 108 games.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 8, 2008 12:01 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

More interesting stuff re: Aviles and defense

In this post, Sean “Chone the Rally Monkey of Anaheim” Smith talks about using his TotalZone metric to look at some minor league defensive from 2007 for some guys who were in the majors this year, including Aviles. Check out what he found:

The correlation between Major League 2008 and Minor League 2007 was .54, which is higher than I expected, and higher than I would have expected between two major league seasons when the sample of chances (153 average) is so small. That may be a fluke, maybe I pick 20 players who fit the same criteria next year and get .07 or even a negative number. [Dan] Fox did publish ratings for 2005 to 2007, so I could look at 3 years to see if the correlation holds up.

If it does, super cool, we can project fielding for minor league infielders as well as we can for major leaguers. Interestingly, the players had slightly better fielding ratings in the majors than they did in the minors – as a group they were +5 per 500 chances in the bigs and +2 in the minors.

So Aviles may actually have been decent defensively in the minors last year, from what we can tell (it would be cool if Dewan and mgl started getting data for at least the high minors). That he seems to have done better in the majors might (big “might” here) explain why the scouts panned his defense as terrible in the minors, then grudgingly admitted it was “average or above average” in the majors after the stats reports came out that showed him doing well (or it may just have been different scouts).

It’s just developmental at this stage, but it interesting, nonetheless.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 8, 2008 6:34 PM EST   0 recs

it's probably worth noting that Aviles played a lot of 3B in the minors last year

I’m not sure if that affects the #’s he did for his research, but yea.

Just my amateur scouting opinion, but I really think Aviles defensive skills got better somewhere between the ‘07 and ’08 seasons. I was one of the people saying his defense was pretty mediocre before he got called up, although I hadn’t been to any Omaha games yet at that point.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 8, 2008 7:10 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

amateur scouting opinion

I would be terrible at it, but while it may not be of “professional” quality, I think hardcore fans like yourself are a lot closer to the pros than you think. When Tango first started publishing the results of the Fans Scouting Report, he talked to people in the industry he knows (he has worked for MLB teams in the past) and they were actually pretty impressed, and said that it was remarkably close to their own scouting evaluations.

Good point about 3B last year. Obviously, I didn’t know that. Maybe it “made him a better SS” like Hillman said playing 3B in August made Teahen a better LF after Gordon came back!

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 8, 2008 7:24 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

also

didn’t Aviles have some bagging injuries or something in ’07?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 8, 2008 7:25 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I didn't even know that his day job was at a supermarket

He really does have a great work ethic.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 8, 2008 7:31 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

lol

Anyways, no, Aviles wasn’t injured last year from what I can remember. All I can find on google is his one game injury when he got hit in the hand this year.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 8, 2008 7:35 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

All this talk about grocery stores and scouting

Reminds me that the guy that signed Albert Pujols now works at Schnucks.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 9, 2008 2:50 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Kurt Warner!

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 8, 2008 7:38 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

CF rankings posted

At Baseball Musings today.

KC CFs as a team were above only the Cardinals (YES! In your face MORANS.)

Of the “qualified” CFs (min. 1000 balls in play, I think), DDJ sadly comes out last, at ~ -13 plays, or about minus 10-11 runs. Keep in mind that he didn’t play that much CF this year, relatively speaking, so the sample size is smaller than usual. Last year he was almost even at about -1 plays. Keep in mind, again, that various metrics say different things depending on their source data (BIS or STATS) and methodology. For example, while PMR had DDJ at -1 plays (actually .98, so pretty much even) 2007, in 2007 UZR had him tied with Coco Crisp at +13 runs, and UZR generally liked DDJ in previous years (don’t know about this year).

Still, it’s worth tracking. Defense is one of the earliest skills that declines, generally speaking, so it wouldn’t be surprising if DDJ was losing a step. Too bad there isn’t much data on Mitch, but the other internal options don’t look so great: Gathright is at about -5 plays, and of course, can’t hit.

LANGERHANS NOW

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 9, 2008 2:10 PM EST   0 recs

Sounds good, but Langerhans would come cheaper

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 9, 2008 8:01 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

+1

Why trade Teahen for Franklin (ABSOLUTE LIE) when you can have both Teahen and Franklin, Jr.

Dayton it’s not rocket science (ahem):

Ok, not quite, but you get the picture (har har har)

Sorry.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 9, 2008 9:17 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Just in case anyone misinterprets your joke/hyperbole
Why trade Teahen for Franklin…when you can have both Teahen and Franklin, Jr.

This postulates or at least implies that Langerhans approximately equals Gutierrez. I know that you know this isn’t true. I just want any unsuspecting readers to know that you know this isn’t true.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 9, 2008 10:04 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Well, I don't think Langerhans is as good as Guttierez

but now that you “clarified” it, I’m not sure sure

:P

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 9, 2008 10:20 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

so sure

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 9, 2008 10:20 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Sure sure, you keep telling yourself that. ;)

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 9, 2008 10:52 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

3Bs now out

Time for bed. Well, it’s not surprise at this point — Gordon came in at minus 13 plays (about minus 10-11 runs), which is a bit worse than Dewan’s had him. Pinto makes a comment that Gordon doesn’t look like he’s long for the position (and PMR had hjm at minus 3 plays last year, although that’s still within the “average” range), but that seems like jumping to conclusions, given the sample size. Oh well, bad year in the field for Alex. He had a good one last year. Hopefully it was just a slump/combination of tough plays. It will be interesting to see what UZR comes up with.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 10, 2008 1:03 AM EST   0 recs

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