RR Royals #12 Prospect

by doublestix on Nov 7, 2008 5:26 PM EST Comment 43 comments

#1 Mike Moustakas, 3B
#2 Eric Hosmer, 1B
#3 Daniel Cortes, RHP
#4 Kila Ka'aihue, 1B
#5 Daniel Duffy, LHP
#6 Carlos Rosa, RHP
#7 Tim Melville, RHP
#8 Mike Montgomery, LHP
#9 Johnny Giavotella, 2B
#10 Blake Wood, RHP
#11 Daniel Gutierrez, RHP
#12 ???

Gutierrez is the winner.

Dickerson off, Cegarra and Pimentel on.

Short scouting reports:

Edward Cegarra | RHP | 19-years-old | 5-foot-11, 175 pounds
Acquired - UDFA: Venezuela | '08 Level - Burlington (Low A)/Wilmington (High A)
Vitals - 8-11, 3.99 ERA, 160.0 IP, 112/26 K/BB, 0.88 FB/GB
-Undersized strike thrower that does an excellent job of not giving free passes. Currently possesses average fastball that runs up to 93. Flips in curveballs for strikes to keep hitters off balance. Working on changeup which he'll need to remain a starter.

Julio Pimentel | RHP | 22-years-old | 6-foot-1, 190 pounds
Acquired - Trade w/ Dodgers in 2006 | '08 Level - NW Arkansas (AA)
Vitals - 7-13, 5.38 ERA, 157.1 IP, 115/52 K/BB, 1.26 FB/GB
-Hard throwing prospect acquired in 2006 from the Dodgers. Has three pitches, a 91-93 sinking fastball (slightly higher velocity in relief), a plus changeup, and a curveball. Still needs to work on command. Profiles better as a reliever in the mold of Fernando Rodney.

Derrick Robinson | CF | 20-years-old | 5-foot-11, 170 pounds
Acquired - 4th Round, 2006 | '08 Level - Wilmington (High A)
Vitals - .245/.316/.322, 97/51 K/BB, 62-for-79 SB
-Absolute burner with exciting top of the order hit tools. Still learning the game after football was his #1 sport in high school, and thus hasn't shown much in the way of results yet. Can play defense, has a good arm, and projects for gap power much like Kenny Lofton or Shane Victorino (away from that tiny ballpark in Philly).

Tyler Sample | RHP | 19-years-old | 6-foot-7, 240 pounds
Acquired - 3rd Round, 2008 | '08 Level - Arizona (R)
Vitals - 0-5, 9.00 ERA, 27 IP, 39/29 K/BB, 2.60 FB/GB
-Huge frame with big time fastball/curveball combination. Changeup is a work in progress, as is command of all his pitches. Sample has huge upside but is light years away from helping out the Royals.

Jason Taylor | 1B/LF | 20-years-old | 6-foot-0, 200 pounds
Acquired - 2nd Round, 2006 | '08 Level - Burlington (Low A)
Vitals - .242/.372/.418, 97/81 K/BB, 40-for-54 SB
-Physical, athletic player with excellent plate discipline and projectable power. Very instinctual player, as noted by 40 SB's despite average at best speed. Likely will move to the outfield in the future.

Poll

Who is the Royals #12 prospect? (players listed in alphabetical order)

Edward Cegarra, RHP

14 votes

Julio Pimentel, RHP

22 votes

Derrick Robinson, CF

44 votes

Tyler Sample, RHP

19 votes

Jason Taylor, 1B/LF

41 votes

Other (specify)

9 votes

149 votes | Poll has closed

1 recs | Comment 43 comments

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Comments

ok

How far do we want to go with this? I understand were probably starting to get into murky waters for some folks.

Also, suggestions for the next poll would be good.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 7, 2008 5:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Now might be a good place to stop

Or if you stop after 12, you can call it the “Twelve Pack.” There is not much utility in ranking the grade C prospects.

by Gopherballs on Nov 7, 2008 5:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the point of this was more to get discussion than it was the rankings

but the rankings obviously generate the discussion more, and it’s kind of fun to see where everyone grades out among each other.

i don’t think folks are going to want to hang this thing up yet. we’ll see after 15.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 7, 2008 6:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

go for 20

Must have 20!!

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Nov 7, 2008 10:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think we should go to 25, but we should pick up the pace of voting, maybe one a day?

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Nov 7, 2008 6:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I like to get to about 100 votes before going to the next one

And that is taking at least 2 days.

Maybe i’ll go less votes next time.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 7, 2008 7:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think we keep voting until less people are voting

the further we go, the more hilarious it gets. Sorry, I am taking it seriously, but I admit that the further we go, the more fun it is, in a weird way. It’s not like it’s pushing a bunch of stuff down the page. Maybe if DMGM signs Dunn and Furcal, it might be good to slow down, but until then…

But that’s just me — I’m just another person who reads and posts here too often.. Really, you should keep posting these as long as you feel enthusiastic about it.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 7, 2008 8:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1.

I agree. As long as nothing too serious or drastic is going on with the Royals, and as long as enough people are staying interested enough to vote, I say keep going.

I love these things.

by rockchalk on Nov 8, 2008 12:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

15 could work

by royalsreview on Nov 8, 2008 4:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No Joe Dickerson????

I think that is a big omission. He’s arguably a top 10 prospect. He got my “other” vote.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 7, 2008 5:58 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

I took him off because he got the least # of votes in the last poll

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 7, 2008 6:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Totally agree

Dickerson at worst is a 4th OF type.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Nov 8, 2008 10:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

or 2,000+ yard rusher

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 8, 2008 11:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

of course

I’d vote for everyone on the list over Dickerson except Cegarra

by kcdc1 on Nov 8, 2008 12:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would have stopped after #1...

These just waste space in my opinion…

by kansasjhawk044 on Nov 7, 2008 9:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ow?

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Nov 7, 2008 10:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Huh?

And by that, I mean wuh? Discussing who are the best Royals prospects and how good they actually are is a waste of space?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 7, 2008 10:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe he's mad they don't project as good shooting guards

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 7, 2008 10:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I bet Paulo Orlando can really shoot the 3

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 7, 2008 10:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think you mean "threesome"

he is from Brazil, right?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 7, 2008 10:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Give us something good to talk about! It's like... KU Freshman coming in.

boooooo

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Nov 7, 2008 10:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Damn us for wanting to discuss future Royals players...

Damn us all!!!!!!!!!!!

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 7, 2008 10:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

to heck

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 7, 2008 10:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

DUDE

Why would we enjoy speaking about baseball when our economy is in a RECESSION! We have so many more serious worries. Damn you all!

by kansasjhawk044 on Nov 9, 2008 8:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

voted other

Dickerson

by gordonrules on Nov 7, 2008 10:38 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

I like the big time power potential

and big time speed potential from Taylor. He could move to the OF as well.

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Nov 8, 2008 10:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Closing in on 100 votes.

Looks like we might need a runoff?

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Nov 9, 2008 6:20 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Let's take this..

…to 15. – TL

[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008

by timlacy on Nov 9, 2008 6:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

keep going until peopple stop voting

why not? i still have opinions on everybody on the ballots.

by kcdc1 on Nov 9, 2008 8:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It would be criminal to choose Robinson over Dickerson

If you’re a numbers guy, then there is no reason to choose Robinson’s dismal .245/.316/.322 line over Dickerson’s .297/.376/.442 at the same level. If you prefer scouting reports and tools, Robinson has one tool only (speed) and nothing else at the moment. The best scouting reports you will find on him laud his upside but agree that he cannot hit. Dickerson, on the other hand,does everything well but not great and the consensus is that barring injury he will at the very least climb the ladder as a 4th OF type and at worst develop into a Nate McLouth.

There is no rational reason whatsoever to rank Robinson over Dickerson at the moment.

Waiting for April.

by DC Royal on Nov 10, 2008 8:47 AM EST reply actions 2 recs

*At best develop into a Nate McLouth

Waiting for April.

by DC Royal on Nov 10, 2008 8:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well, that's a let down

(smiley-face)

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 10, 2008 9:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Both are toolsy and have some upside, but not great upside. And Dickerson has turned his tools into an actually pretty good performance. Robinson is still looking for results.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 10, 2008 8:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I haven't seen either of them play

But I remember an interview over this summer where DM was asked about the top OF prospects in the system. He immediately brought up Robinson. The questioner then directly asked about Dickerson, to which DM responded something along the lines of, “Oh yeah, he’s good too.” Rany also mentioned in a post about KK that scouts are not impressed with Dickerson. Dickerson is a corner outfielder who has shown a good eye, but lacks home run power. Time will tell, but I think we’re much more likely to see Robinson contribute at the MLB level than we are to see Dickerson do so.

by kcdc1 on Nov 10, 2008 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Absolutely. Dickerson MIGHT be decent but he’s going to have to keep hitting for a high average and take a bunch of walks. Fact is, the guy just doesn’t have a powerful swing that will play at a corner spot. I like the “quietness” he has when up there at the plate, might allow him to hit for a solid average. Fourth OF? Ya, I’d say there’s a decent chance. Starting corner OF…just not seeing it.

In all honesty, I might rank David Lough above Dickerson. Not certain yet, but Lough has more power and can play a legit CF.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 10, 2008 1:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lough aside

I’m not buying the argument that questions about Dickerson’s projection somehow have a higher negative impact on his ranking than Robinson’s complete inability to hit for average AND get on base at the professional level. And if the consensus here is to hammer Dickerson on his lack of home run power, you cannot selectively ignore that same criticism of Robinson, who has zero power to speak of and a combined .244/.314/.315 line in three seasons at the lowest levels of professional baseball. That’s just flat out terrible, and his most valuable tool (speed) is completely negated if hecannot figure out how to hit or get on base at an acceptable clip.

There is always the possibility that Robinson has a breakout season, but to be fair that possibility applies to Dickerson as well. The trap with overvaluing upside in minor league players is that you are banking on returns from young kids that in reality never come to be more often than not due to multiple factors – injuries, immaturity, and more often than not, performance that does not match optimistic predictions. If minor league players were stocks, you want want to sell short 99.9% of the time because prospects decrease in value at higher levels or outright fail at a much higher rate than they continue improve or succeed.

I’m not saying that Robinson has a higher likelihood of failure than Dickerson does; as I understand it that is not the point of this exercise. What I’m saying is that when it comes to valuing prospects, other than tools, projection and upside you’re left with results on the field, and Dickerson has at least shown in his results the ability to acceptably hit, field, and run at the lower minor league levels. Even if his upside is not as high as Robinson’s, the results have to count for something in valuing Dickerson in the present.

Waiting for April.

by DC Royal on Nov 10, 2008 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I expect Robinson to either be playing at WR for Florida or

QB for Ga Tech within a year.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Nov 10, 2008 4:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I expect that your wrong

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 10, 2008 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hell, he could start at Arrowhead on Sundays

and still have plenty of time to work on baseball

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 10, 2008 9:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Only if he could play on the line...

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 10, 2008 11:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I value tools a whole hell of a lot more at lowers levels than statistics

Perhaps you will be right, but right now I’m banking on Robinson’s upside. I do balance them stats, upside, gut feeling, and other things in my rankings. My gut likes Robinson A TON. I think he’s going to be a good player.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 10, 2008 4:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs