RR Royals #13 Prospect

by doublestix on Nov 9, 2008 10:41 PM EST Comment 26 comments

#1 Mike Moustakas, 3B
#2 Eric Hosmer, 1B
#3 Daniel Cortes, RHP
#4 Kila Ka'aihue, 1B
#5 Daniel Duffy, LHP
#6 Carlos Rosa, RHP
#7 Tim Melville, RHP
#8 Mike Montgomery, LHP
#9 Johnny Giavotella, 2B
#10 Blake Wood, RHP
#11 Daniel Gutierrez, RHP
#12 Derrick Robinson, CF
#13 ???

Robinson FTW.

Dickerson replaces Robinson on the poll.

Short scouting reports:

Edward Cegarra | RHP | 19-years-old | 5-foot-11, 175 pounds
Acquired - UDFA: Venezuela | '08 Level - Burlington (Low A)/Wilmington (High A)
Vitals - 8-11, 3.99 ERA, 160.0 IP, 112/26 K/BB, 0.88 FB/GB
-Undersized strike thrower that does an excellent job of not giving free passes. Currently possesses average fastball that runs up to 93. Flips in curveballs for strikes to keep hitters off balance. Working on changeup which he'll need to remain a starter.

Joe Dickerson | RF | 22-years-old | 6-foot-1, 190 pounds
Acquired - 4th Round, 2005 | '08 Level - Wilmington (High A)
Vitals - .297/.376/.442, 48/31 K/BB, 24-for-38 SB
-Tweener outfielder with very good hit tool and good eye. Good speed underway, but doesn't translate well on the basepaths. Uses the gaps for extra base hits, enough strength to hit one out on occasion. Must keep hitting to remain prospect as he's likely locked into a corner spot.

Julio Pimentel | RHP | 22-years-old | 6-foot-1, 190 pounds
Acquired - Trade w/ Dodgers in 2006 | '08 Level - NW Arkansas (AA)
Vitals - 7-13, 5.38 ERA, 157.1 IP, 115/52 K/BB, 1.26 FB/GB
-Hard throwing prospect acquired in 2006 from the Dodgers. Has three pitches, a 91-93 sinking fastball (slightly higher velocity in relief), a plus changeup, and a curveball. Still needs to work on command. Profiles better as a reliever in the mold of Fernando Rodney.

Tyler Sample | RHP | 19-years-old | 6-foot-7, 240 pounds
Acquired - 3rd Round, 2008 | '08 Level - Arizona (R)
Vitals - 0-5, 9.00 ERA, 27 IP, 39/29 K/BB, 2.60 FB/GB
-Huge frame with big time fastball/curveball combination. Changeup is a work in progress, as is command of all his pitches. Sample has huge upside but is light years away from helping out the Royals.

Jason Taylor | 1B/LF | 20-years-old | 6-foot-0, 200 pounds
Acquired - 2nd Round, 2006 | '08 Level - Burlington (Low A)
Vitals - .242/.372/.418, 97/81 K/BB, 40-for-54 SB
-Physical, athletic player with excellent plate discipline and projectable power. Very instinctual player, as noted by 40 SB's despite average at best speed. Likely will move to the outfield in the future.

Poll

Who is the Royals #13 prospect? (players listed in alphabetical order)

Edward Cegarra, RHP

7 votes

Joe Dickerson, RF

26 votes

Julio Pimentel, RHP

6 votes

Tyler Sample, RHP

14 votes

Jason Taylor, 1B/LF

45 votes

Other (specify)

1 votes

99 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 26 comments

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Comments

I have a question

Does anyone think BP or BA will have Jason Taylor in their top 15? Kevin Goldstein at BP does a top 11 with a few “just missed the cuts,” so he’ll have a functional top 15 (or at least 14). BA does a top 30. He didn’t make Sickels top 20 and was the last in his list of honorable mentions. I’m pretty sure he won’t make BP’s top 15 and I really doubt he’ll be in BA’s top 15, probably not even top 20.

I’m not saying that BA, BP and Sickels are the final word on evaluating prospects. It just seems like we’re going against the best in the prospect evaluation and analysis community.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 10, 2008 8:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

because we're smarter than them

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 10, 2008 9:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Plus an elevated concentration of Midwest League roto enthusiasts

by Gopherballs on Nov 10, 2008 1:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and we're amazing.

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Nov 10, 2008 3:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sample

The voting for #12 (Robinson) and #13 (Taylor leading) seems to indicate that the RR community values tools and upside over actual performance.

If that is truly the case, then I respectfully disagree with our assessment as I think Dickerson is a better prospect than both Robinson and Taylor when performance is factored in the equation, but as long as we are consistent in our mindset I think our assessment will be fair. In that vein, for the sake of consistency and fairness I think Tyler Sample has to be ranked #13 and no lower than #14. Going on pure upside, I would probably even rate him ahead of Robinson at #12.

Waiting for April.

by DC Royal on Nov 10, 2008 10:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Like you, I don't understand Robinson over Dickerson, and it is because of the tools

Even if we disregard stats, I think Dickerson’s total package of tools is better than Robinson’s.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Nov 10, 2008 10:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Other than speed Robinson has nothing on Dickerson.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Nov 10, 2008 4:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Meh, Paulo Orlando has the best upside.

Dickerson has litle chance to make the team over Gordan and DDJ in the corners in 2011.
Robinson is Joey Gathright II at this point. YAY.
Orlando could be a starter in cf.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Nov 10, 2008 5:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And...uh...this thing called defense.

Robinson projects as an elite defensive CF. That alone makes him darn valuable. There’s also [i][b]projection[/i][/b] which Robinson has a shit load of.

Again, maybe I’m wrong and he won’t turn out to anything. But what good are rankings if everyone agrees? I’m going out on a limb and saying Robinson will be a very good CF, a Lofton type.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 10, 2008 5:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hope both Orlando and Robinson get better next year and give us some legit cf prospects.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Nov 10, 2008 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

obviously that would be nice

Don’t discount David Lough at all though…I really think he might be the most underrated prospect we have. Legit CF with power. I think he gets downgraded because he was 22 and in Low A, but he does have some skills, and it’s worth noting that he was a multi sport guy in college.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 10, 2008 5:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree!

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Nov 10, 2008 9:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

David "Prime Time" Lough

Mu$t Be The $30,000/yr.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 10, 2008 9:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the next matt holliday

Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.

by wildthang on Nov 12, 2008 4:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Except better, obviously

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 12, 2008 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dickerson might be a CF

in the DDJ mold. Not great speed but reads the ball well off the bat and has adequate enough speed to get the job done.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Nov 13, 2008 11:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+ 2000 yards rushing for the Chiefs in the offseason

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 13, 2008 1:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Only it would be recieving and for the Raiders.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Nov 13, 2008 6:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ive read that robinsons ceiling is kenny lofton....

count me in the crowd that would absolutely LOVE to have a lofton type

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Nov 14, 2008 2:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yes, me too

maybe that’s why i’m irrationally high on him.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 15, 2008 8:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I like Dickerson

more than Robinson as well, but not Taylor. Taylor quietly had a very good year in the MWL at 20 years old. Dickerson is also about one year older than Taylor. Taylor also showed a knack for hitting the long ball, finishing i believe in the Top 10 in the MWL

Dickerson has a higher SLG% than Taylor, but that is a little misleading when considering their BABIP’s. Dickerson had a BABIP of 347 and Taylor’s was 276.

So from my vantage point Taylor is a better prospect based on performance and upside.

Alex Gordon in '08

by RoyalJHWKR on Nov 10, 2008 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Taylor's line drive rate was a lousy 11.1%

His quick and dirty expected BABIP was .231.

by Gopherballs on Nov 10, 2008 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

but strangely

when I neutralize park and luck at Minor League Splits for Taylor, his stats go up. Isn’t that the purpose, to normalize for BABIP? I don’t have strong feelings about Taylor either way, just want to make sure I’m using the tools right. His raw stats in 2008 are .240/.368/.416 with a .272 BABIP; when I normalize for park and luck, it comes out as .279/.400/.467 with a .326 BABIP.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Nov 10, 2008 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure how MLS is adjusting for luck

It might be re-setting LD% to the league average or something. If you select the park and luck options, Wilson Tucker (10.5% LD) jumps to .321, and Antonio Jimenez (8.5 LD%) jumps to .319. I am not quite buying that.

In any event, I do not have strong feelings toward Taylor either, just noting his contract problems as an issue.

by Gopherballs on Nov 10, 2008 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

LD%'s at low levels are not reliable stats.

I’ve seen write ups on it, no link at this time.

Just looking at the LD% leaders though…no Burlington players on there at all, while pretty much the whole Kane County lineup is listed. Something about that is…wrong. Scratch that…ONE Burlington player, and a non-prospect at that.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Nov 10, 2008 2:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs