Fangraphs: Valuing Meche
Last year, the average dollar figure per win was around 4.5-4.75 million dollars. With inflation, I’ll call this year’s amount a firm 5 million per win. 2.5 wins multiplied by 5 million dollars per win amounts to 12.5 million dollars. That is, if Meche were a free agent right now and signed a 1-yr deal, 12.5 million dollars would be an appropriate fee. For multi-year deals, we usually factor in a 10% discount rate, since players tend to sacrifice a bit of their monetary value for some security. With that in mind, a 3-yr deal for Meche would come out to 33.75 million dollars. A 5-yr deal would be valued at 56.25 million dollars.
Meche may not have seemed worth the money back in 2006, but as of right now, his average annual value would be somewhere around 11.25 million dollars, just slightly above the 11 mil in his actual contract.
7 months ago
RoyalsRetro
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cool
totally agree with his conclusion, especially when you consider he is forecasting his FIP 0.57 above his 2008 numbers. Some rough math (i.e. in my head on the spot) based on repeating 2008 stats and that could easily be another whole win and a half above replacement, which is $7 mil / yr more in value.
Meche as a $15-$17 million a year pitcher… that’s roughly what his ’08 was by FIP.
by ZeppelinDZ on
Dec 1, 2008 12:07 PM EST
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Epic!
We always did feel the same, We just saw it from a different point of view, Tangled up in blue.
-Bob Dylan
by Royal Kingdom on
Dec 1, 2008 12:10 PM EST
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only a slight bargain?
when he’s wildly out-performed expectations (subjectively)
damn… kinda a letdown
by royalsreview on
Dec 1, 2008 12:20 PM EST
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Well, that was for a projected 2009
So far, he’s been a significant bargain in both of the first two years of his contract. They are predicting for him to be a bargain yet again in 2009 (although perhaps a little less so than 07 and 08). The total bargain/value from the first three years of the contract is significant.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Dec 1, 2008 3:46 PM EST
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And yet some still doubt.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on
Dec 1, 2008 12:26 PM EST
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next up:
JoGui. The Dream Crusher.
"I can resist everything but temptation." - oscar wylde
by cfizzle on
Dec 1, 2008 2:03 PM EST
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i look at pitcher wins
because wins are what we play for
sincerely,
old guy
"So whattya say, should we clean this place up?" - Tom Cruise
by DyeFan187 on
Dec 1, 2008 2:17 PM EST
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sure
and I suppose you decide how good a hitter is based on the number go-ahead runs he scores to give his team leads that are not later relinquished by the pitchers.
by kcdc1 on
Dec 1, 2008 3:46 PM EST
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GWRBI Is The
Most potent predictor of future performance known to man. Period.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on
Dec 1, 2008 8:52 PM EST
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