Rob Neyer Blasts Meche Contract..... Again.

I was not, however, wrong about Meche's contract, which was not a good one for the Royals.

Why not? Because big contracts don't make sense for losing teams. In Meche's two seasons the Royals have finished 69-93 and 75-87, with a .500 record still just a fantasy. Now, the argument that has been made is that while Meche might not push the Royals into contention all by himself, signing him "showed the Royals are serious" and would thus attract both fans and free agents.

Fans? The Royals finished last in attendance this year, next-to-last the year before. Free agents? The only notable free agent they've signed since Meche came aboard is Jose Guillen (about whom the less said, the better).

snip

Someday, the historians will look at Gil Meche's statistics and his salaries and conclude that the Royals got their money's worth, and then some. Today, though, those dollars are just another example of the mismanagement that has plagued the franchise for nearly 25 years.

about 1 month ago djk royal Comment 26 comments 0 recs |

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Hey, I admire him for not giving up or giving in, regardless of the facts

Of course back when he was signed, he said he’d be a good value for the money if he pitched like a #3 SP. Of course, he’s done better than that and yet it was still a bad contract. Oh well, whatever works for Rob.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 1, 2008 4:45 PM EST 0 recs

Rob Neyer was the reason I got into sabermetrics

Kinda sad how irrelevant he has become in the field. I can’t remember the last time I read him.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 1, 2008 4:49 PM EST 0 recs

He actually had a good article up on wOBA recently

but yeah, same feelings about Neyer. I do think he just loses it when it comes to the Royals. The less said about Neyer on the Royals, the better.

Almost as bad: Neyer trying to seem cool and hip re: politics. Must be something in the Lawrence water from when he was busy dropping out of university.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 1, 2008 5:00 PM EST up 0 recs

The wOBA

article was quite similar to one posted up on fangraphs a few days earlier. I wouldn’t be surprised if it wasn’t ripped to some degree.

Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.

by wildthang on Dec 1, 2008 5:46 PM EST up 0 recs

he actually quotes the Seidman article at length

I like Seidman and Fangraphs, and maybe, as Rob says, Seidman does have a “future in the game.” However, I ran a similar analysis of Meche’s contract somewhere on this site a month or two back, do I have a future in the game, or is Seidman’s age the issue?

Seriously, Rob, it didn’t take me that long in the last few months to obtain the knowledge I needed for my analysis (which I might revise now, on the basis of other things I’ve learned). And I don’t write about baseball for a living. You’re supposed to be the sabermetrics guy at ESPN — you should be impressing me, not frustrating me by not knowing stuff I learned by reading blogs in my spare time.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 1, 2008 6:39 PM EST up 0 recs

You do have a future in the game

The Royals need hot dog vendors after all.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 1, 2008 9:25 PM EST up 0 recs

Agreed

The last thing that he wrote which I really liked was Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers. He’s gone downhill from there. His books on dynasties, blunders, etc. are boring at best. And his columns show little in the way of superior insight or analysis.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 1, 2008 5:06 PM EST up 0 recs

It's actually not sad at all

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Dec 1, 2008 8:22 PM EST up 0 recs

two things

1) he went to ESPN Insider… which I don’t think was his decision. Why ESPN has this side of their site is beyond me. They are one of the few sports websites that probably makes enough in advertising to not have this be necessary.
2) Personally, I don’t share Neyer’s love for the ancient history of the game. Some of his writing has gotten really historical, i.e. the legends book or whatever it was, and I don’t really get into that stuff. Just a personal preference.

by royalsreview on Dec 2, 2008 2:37 PM EST up 0 recs

Here's my take on Neyer

yawn *

blink *

blink *

I'm about to change my username to DannyDuffyfan

by jackie ballgame on Dec 1, 2008 5:44 PM EST 0 recs

with bullet points no less

I'm about to change my username to DannyDuffyfan

by jackie ballgame on Dec 1, 2008 5:44 PM EST 0 recs

Those points deserved bullets

Neyer does not.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 1, 2008 6:50 PM EST up 0 recs

honestly, i sorta agree with the angle he takes on this

he doesn’t say the Meche contract was a bad contract; quite the opposite, he says it turned out it was a great contract. Moreover, he says he was wrong about how good Meche has been.

The point he makes is it was bad for the Royals. That a losing team on a budget either doesn’t spend so much on one player, or if they do they trade the contract to cash in that value.

If you evaluate success on winning (which fans do but teams only partially do combined with money) any dime spent on a team that doesn’t win is wasted, i.e. Meche has wasted about 20 million dollars so far.

Certainly problems with looking at it that way, but I don’t think he is nearly as off-base with this as I have seen him in the past.

by ZeppelinDZ on Dec 1, 2008 5:44 PM EST 0 recs

Assumption doesn't hold

The assumption is: bad teams shouldn’t spend so much on one player BECAUSE it keeps them from building the rest of their team with that money. I can’t think of an instance where the money we have or will pay Meche has had any impact on the talent evaluation (see increased LA scouting), drafting (4 bonus babies in three years drafting BPA), player development (added additional MiL affiliate) or other FAs (Guillen, lost out in sweepstakes for Hunter, Jones-thank God-, and Fukudome, but not because of money).

It’s just not realistic to say “bad teams shouldn’t spend any money until they get good”. That would mean building entirely through the draft and somehow managing to have all those drafted players peak at the same time. Otherwise, you need FAs and they aren’t coming a)cheap or b)to a loser or c)to a cheapskate.

by Big Guy on Dec 1, 2008 5:59 PM EST up 1 recs

It also completely ignores

Any value from (a) trading Meche someday; (b) getting draft picks when Meche leaves; © the impact, if any, in having a decent pitcher on the rest of the pitching staff

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 1, 2008 9:27 PM EST up 0 recs

Agreed

I’m so sick of that attitude that if you’re not going to be competitive you might as well go 0-162. It doesn’t work that way. You build it piece by piece.

by raefzilla on Dec 2, 2008 1:23 PM EST up 0 recs

I think you build a team piece-by-piece. Sometimes that means taking on a big FA contract before the team is ready to contend. If the Royals had a good minor league system when Moore was hired, then he could have just sat on the young talented until they were ready to ride the Royals into contention (as the Rays have done). But he didn’t have that. And neither he, nor Glass, nor the Royals fanbase was ready for the Royals to literally sit on their hands for at least five years while the minors were rebuilt and enough young players developed for the Royals to contend with in-house talent. That’s how long it would have taken at the very shortest. There is a middle course between radical rebuilding and win-now. Moore has taken that course. He’s not dumping huge money on aging FA’s. He spent one big chunk on Meche and that has worked out. He spent another big chunk on Guillen and that has not. But he’s not acquiring FA’s who are blocking good, young players. Almost all of the Royals good, young talent is getting a chance to develop, while the Royals add wins and get closer to respectability (and to the point where good FA’s might actually be willing to accept the Royasl offers). While we can quibble with this or that move, I think the overall strategy is sound.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 1, 2008 6:56 PM EST up 0 recs

+ 1

by djk royal on Dec 1, 2008 8:12 PM EST up 0 recs

+2

I think Rob tries to say that at this point in the cycle the organization should be trading away established players for prospects and continuing to build from within. The problem with that approach is that they Royals were devoid of viable trading chips who would bring a large enough return to greatly help the major league club immediately.

by Top Ramen on Dec 2, 2008 10:16 AM EST up 0 recs

His argument would hold water if...

…the contract was hindering the organization from doing other things.

But, it’s not, and Neyer looks like an idiot again.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Dec 1, 2008 8:28 PM EST 0 recs

if the royals never approach a pennant during the length of the meche deal...

then there is something to what he is saying

by royalsreview on Dec 2, 2008 12:17 AM EST 0 recs

I disagree

Winning 75 games is better than winning 70. Sports aren’t necessarily championship or bust. It’s entertainment, so if a first performance satisfies fans more than a second would, that first performance is better, even if it doesn’t include a pennant.

by kcdc1 on Dec 2, 2008 10:50 AM EST up 0 recs

someone needs to take Neyer out back

and whip him Royal style.

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Dec 2, 2008 12:27 AM EST 0 recs

Cheer up, Rob

Your makeup is running.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Dec 2, 2008 6:15 AM EST 0 recs

We spent the most money of any team in the draft this year.

We keep adding personnell to scouting and to the front office. We’re a player in Latin America now. I’m not sure how this contract has held us back or where he would want all that money to go besides in the owners pocket.

by djk royal on Dec 2, 2008 11:15 AM EST 0 recs