Winter Meetings Day Three Open Thread
by Freneau on Dec 10, 2008 6:00 AM EST
in Kansas City Royals News
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PrintFurcal mania hits day two!
- SB Nation Hotstove Hub. Hey, at least you can read about the interesting things other teams are doing.
- A few people here have mentioned the merits of signing Randy Johnson. Well, the Astros are on it.
- JoePo/Poz on the crazy Royals rumors.
- The 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 Atlanta Braves. Its just easier to get familiar with the names early. (Ducking.) I know the ex-Braves joke is borderline mainstream now, but I've just got to point out, if anybody was obsessing on it before me, I surely missed it. Something to be proud of I suppose.
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+1
Even as shared fan with the Cubs, I was literally EXCITED about the possibility of CC perhaps maybe staying with the Brewers. It was making the rivalry fun. No there is no rivalry—-even more so if the Peavy deal goes the Cubs way. …I hate the Yankees. – TL
[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.
It's a big budget
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
So, is anybody else not quite excited about
potentially signing Furcal for four years? The last year seems like a definite sunk cost, as he probably won’t play much. I’d rather go two, but the money required for that is not available to the Royals.
Uh, I'd be more excited...
…if the injury bug hadn’t bitten him so hard recently. It feels like a Juan Gonzalez move. – TL
[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.
color me as unexcited....
i’d be much more pumped if we could somehow swindle Baltimore for Brian Roberts….however that’s probably asking too much.
by Fernando Vina School of Linguistics on Dec 10, 2008 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
damn
I thought I’d get first since I’m teaching class and the kids are testing
In the Royals game of life, Neifi Perez is the rake.
This is what you guys get for your tax dollars
Teachers keeping the kids busy so they can keep up with the Winter Meetings
In the Royals game of life, Neifi Perez is the rake.
Back here in KC,
my teacher roommate is sleeping in because of the roads. While I had to drive to work all the same…
….
We had school today......
tax dollars earned for me today!
by Fernando Vina School of Linguistics on Dec 10, 2008 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
In class
We are supposed to be reading Romeo and Juliet, but I think we will just watch it so I can stay on the thread
In the Royals game of life, Neifi Perez is the rake.
+1
reading is for suckers
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 11:11 AM EST up reply actions
I'm on the Kansas side
WE HAD SCHOOL!!! Sucks
In the Royals game of life, Neifi Perez is the rake.
I grew up in Blue Springs, MO
And I believe they wore it as a badge of honor that they never ever cancelled school. Then I moved to Kansas and they cancelled school if it was too cold out – no joke.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
you guys are lucky you don't live in Ontario
my wife has been teaching up here for 6 years — not one day canceled for snow
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 11:11 AM EST up reply actions
well, we don't ride our hardy caribou to school in Kansas City
…so we kinda have to wait for the snowplows to do their thing.
(But I live in California now, so…hah. No snow. Ever.)
I'm near springfield but my school is in session, my wife's is not...
GRRRRr
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
When I Lived
In Little Rock they canceled school because it was going to snow. I was working swing shift at a bank, and I’d gone to a friend’s house for beers after work. When I started my car to drive home, the radio came on and I heard the announcement that schools were closed. Not a flake had fallen. We eventually got about 4 inches of snow and ice, and the state was paralyzed. No one had snow tires, so everyone ran out and bought chains. The snow stayed on the ground for about 2 weeks, and after the roads were clear some people were still using the chains on bare asphalt because they could see snow. I was working with adults who had never seen snow stick before; it doesn’t snow much down there.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Dec 10, 2008 1:24 PM EST up reply actions
Main reason
For being a teacher is the snow days. But nothing worse then counting on a snow day and not getting it. Brutal.
In the Royals game of life, Neifi Perez is the rake.
Remember being a kid
and trying to will on the snowstorm, usually to no avail. Now that I’s all growed up, snow is just an annoyance to deal with.
I hereby resign from this post.
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Dec 10, 2008 9:51 AM EST up reply actions
Of the "Final Four"...
…teams that are in on Furcal I think it really comes down to the Royals and the Dodgers. I don’t think the Blue Jays are that serious and he has already turned down an offer from the A’s. I wouldn’t be against signing Furcal, but I think I’d like us to go after O-Dog instead.
Mike Jacobs you're 2009 AL MVP
I don't see it
I just don’t see us picking up either unless and until we get rid of Guillen and his salary. I also don’t think that we can take a leap of faith and sign Furcal/Hudson first then try to get rid of Guillen, too much risk salary-wise. I can’t imagine that anyone would take Guillen, given that others like Dunn, Burrell, Ibanez are out there. Who is going to want a head case that is overpaid and declining?
I hereby resign from this post.
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Dec 10, 2008 10:14 AM EST up reply actions
Olney was on Sportscenter...
talking about how cold the market for corner OF’s is this year. He was focusing on Man-Ram and the extreme unlikelihood that he will be getting anywhere near the $20-25M per sort of deal he was wanting (HA! Take THAT, Boras!), when there are guys like Dunn, Burrell, Abreu, etc. that will sign for FAR less. By less he was saying in the $10-12M per range. So, effectively, even if the Royals agreed to trade Guillen for next-to-nothing, they are still likely competing against the top FA corner OF’s that are still out there.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 10, 2008 11:36 AM EST up reply actions
I think he wants to get more money from the A's
And is using us as leverage. But that doesn’t mean we won’t get him. Billy Beane can be stingy with the money.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
And the As offer is really, really smart
see that Dayton? You want to get more for your money. imagine that, no “bonus for coming to Oakland?”
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
But the nickname is worth $6M/year by itself
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
Are we the leader for Furcal?
2:07am: Richard Griffin suggests the Blue Jays are just being used by Kinzer to add negotiating power.
I wasn’t psyched about signing Furcal prior to the offseason but when the market is this depressed I might come around to it especially if they can limit the damage to 3 years.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
As long as the Dodgers don't low ball him
I think he’ll go back to LA. If they do though I think we’d be next in line. IMO
Mike Jacobs you're 2009 AL MVP
LA seems like they are in big payroll cut mode.
They are low balling ManRam trying to buy off Andruw Jones contract and CC was basically begging them to get in the mix and they wouldn’t bite. Plus just based on a few of their past contracts they aren’t into giving multiple year deals so I would expect a 3 year would be the max they would go for Furcal.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
And this is why
the Gload and Yabuta signings matter. That would have been an easy, carefree way to free up most of the money required for Furcal in 09. Another argument against the “what do I care – it’s Glass’ money” crowd.
That being said, wouldn’t it be nice if the owner decided to take a chance, show some faith in his GM, and bump the payroll up to cover this? It would not be THAT big of a gamble – theoretically, the team could flirt with .500 or even contention this season, and combined with the newly renovated stadium (and DESPITE the economy), the signing COULD theoretically pay for itself.
Look at this potential lineup:
DDJ
Furcal
Gordon
Guillen
Jacobs
Butler
Aviles
Buck/Olivo
Crisp
That could actually be near league average.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
by loyal2sdad on Dec 10, 2008 10:22 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
If they get creative with the contract
like backloading it some then I really don’t think ’09 would be much of an issue
Mike Jacobs you're 2009 AL MVP
Furcal should go for that
/sarc
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
+1
also why “only” spending $3M on a 1-WAR-in-a-giid-year guy like MIke Jacobs matter.
And also why blowing the trust gained on the Meche deal by following it with the “dumb in the best case scenario” GUillen deal (if you were Glass, how much trust would you have after the Guillen fiasco?". And why $5.4M on Crisp means he has to be average against $400,000 for Ramirez (minus the money spent on Farns, Lyons, or Springer) to make it worth it for the Royals.
Even if those trades work out, they were inefficient.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 11:15 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I understand the decline curve and all,
but is a 4th year for a 31 year old shortstop that big of a concern? This is a very good player, and even with a normal decline, he is still likely to be productive at age 35.
(I would have some mild concern about the nature of his injury in 08; i.e., a back injury)
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
And have you seen...
…the guy’s arm?! Wow. Furcal is a quality player when healthy. – TL
[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.
You may be right
I think I’m a little overskeptical because of how these types of deals have burned the Royals before.
+2
And by that time, assuming he develops as he should, Giavotella should be ready for utility or backup duties (at least). So, the Royals wouldn’t have to worry about going out to sign another FA middle IF to a big contract if Furcal’s injury issues/decline become major factors.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 10, 2008 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
that might be pushing it for Johnny G
I think he’ll spend a full year or close to it in Wilmington in 2009, and if all goes well, he’ll move onto NWA for 2010. Assuming all of that happens, he’ll probably be given a chance to make the big league club in 2011, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him start the season in Omaha instead.
at his age I think that is too long of a timetable.
He should move alot faster than that if he going to be a ML player.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
How much faster can you realistically expect him to move?
The guy was in A ball this year, and he hit well (especially for a 2B), but not spectacularly well. Expecting him to be in the MLB in 2010 probably won’t happen.
I see two basic scenarios with Furcal...
(1) his back turns out to be a chronic issue and he turns into a Sweeney/Albatross contract in year one; or (2) he stays relatively healthy (as he has for most of this career) for the majority of the contract (especially if it’s only three years). If he does start to decline noticeably in the field, it likely won’t be until 2011, at which point Johnny G should be ready for prime time.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 10, 2008 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
If Furcal declines enough the DMGM/the Royals realize he needs to move to second, he’ll probably be below average defesively there, too, and offensively as well. So that has to be taken into consideration when putting in an offer.
They shouldn’t go much higher than the As did.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
That doesn't quite compute
Furcal could lose a couple of steps in the field and still be a serviceable offensive player. Based on his age, Furcal’s offensive production shouldn’t start substantially declining for another 3ish years, and he would still be an above-average bat at that position, even if his defense slips a little.
I guess I disagree
he’s not a slugger, he’s a speed-and-contact guy. Those skills peak at 29 at the very latest, combined, more around 27. Lok at the numbers. Check his replacement-level 2007.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
You look at his career, 2007 was clearly the outlier
He was going on an absolute tear in 2008 before he got injured. Sure, he would have cooled down a lot, but I think his numbers would have rebounded regardless.
outliers and injuries are part of a players performance history
And they are weighted accordingly
Bill James (sigh) projects: .341 wOBA (.286/.354/.409)
Marcels: .336 (.281/.351/.406)
That’s about average now, which is good for a SS. He’s average to above-average on defense (although UZR says he is now below average, I’ll leave it).
With 85% playing time (and do you really think he will player that much next season?) and a normal decline rate, the monkeys (who aren’t doctors, so they don’t understand injuries, they can just regress to the mean) say 1/$13.4, 2/$25.5, 3/$35.8, 4/$43.9 is market value. I certainly wouldn’t go beyond them, give their optimistic playing time predictions, that’s all. 3/36 would be my ceiling, and I’d feel leery about that.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
why would he go to the Royals if they didn't offer more money or more years?
Just because he likes hangin with GMDM? Come on get realistic
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
to each his or her own
that’s even more than the Robo-GM market value, though
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
He turned down 4/35-40 from the A's
so if we offer 4/40-45 and he takes it I think we’d be ok.
Mike Jacobs you're 2009 AL MVP
agree to disagree
let someone else take the risk
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
+1
It seems like an odd move to me to replace our miracle above average SS by paying someone else ten million dollars more.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
Small clarification
By all accounts, Furcal wouldn’t replace Aviles. He’d essentially replace Callaspo, with Aviles changing positions.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 11, 2008 6:13 AM EST up reply actions
Sure,
but then there’s the question of whether or not Aviles would grade out to be as good a 2B as he was a SS last year. Really, my point is that with two middle infielders that I think will be pretty good this year, it’s not worth the relative cost of the upgrade to Furcal.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
Is there any decent defensive SS who isn't a better defensive 2B?
But I think your second point has merit. The question (and it is a big question mark) is how good Callaspo will be. I think his bat will be ok (with a nice OBP) but by all accounts he’s a poor defensive 2B. Furcal would be an offensive upgrade over Callaspo and the overall middle IF defense would be better. I think 2B isn’t an area of dire need, but it is an area of significant need.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 11, 2008 9:21 AM EST up reply actions
I would much prefer a 3-year deal with Furcal to a 4-year deal
My ceiling for him would probably be a 3/33 deal, except maybe to tack on an option for the fourth year.
But, Furcal seems like he really wants a guaranteed fourth year, which especially if the contract is at all backloaded, will probably end up being a sunk cost to some degree. So if the fourth year became a sticking point in negotiations, I’d probably say thanks but no thanks.
+1
Typical me — “argue” with someone, then realize we basically agree. Seriously, that’s 3/33 max sounds right to me.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
3/33 is a pretty good deal.
He could have been a type A free agent (8 million value), and could be a type A or B when he leaves or we could trade for something on the back end possibly, additional value unknown. So it is really more like a 2/13 million with trade in value on the last year, or possibly as good as 3/17 million in value.
Go Royals!
Because Kansas City is just that awesome...
hey, at least we’ve got a LOT less traffic than LA
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 10, 2008 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
It's not about what he should do
it’s about what the Royals should do
I think people are misled by his hot start to 2008 or something. He hasn’t been genuinely good for a full season since 2006 — and then he was just above average.
The offensive decline has already begun.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
I'm calling shenanigans here
For his position, Furcal was well above average in 2006. Shortstops who hit for a .814 OPS don’t grow on trees. Characterizing his 2006 line as “just above average” isn’t wholly accurate. Plus…hell, at this point, I think the Royals would take a .814 OPS from their first baseman, much less their shortstop (I’m not saying Furcal will OPS .810+ in 2009, but saying his decline began in 2006 is not at all substantiated by the numbers).
I'm saying the decline is obvious after that
even without the injury
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
While he may be in a decline, I think it's far from obvious
2007 really looks like a blip if you assume his 2008 numbers are even remotely skill based. I can only assume 2007 performance is injury related because his slugging took a significant hit compared to other years.
His OBP remained at .333 in his worst year since becoming established and his career OBP is around .350. I would say if his skills were declining, OBP would have seen a more significant decline. I think SLG would be more impacted by injury than OBP and the numbers support this – albeit in a very simple analysis.
probably not getting much more precise
I don’t think I’m actually disagreeing with you guys. I do think his offense is good — for a SS. The projections take stuff into account. I’ll have to re-run his ZiPs projection through the wOBA-nator later today.
2006, 2007, and 2008 all count. So does aging. So does his big home park. So does inferior NL pitching.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
I would just add that
organizational need should play a factor, but you have to be careful, otherwise you end up paying Jose Guillen 3/36 because “hell, he can’t play defense anymore, and last year he was pretty lucky, and the year before he was hurt, and he’s clearly in decline, but he 60% likely to be better than Emil Brown, so what the hell.”
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 12:29 PM EST up reply actions
PS
he ended up not being as good as Emil Brown
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 12:29 PM EST up reply actions
Who is as good as Emil Brown?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
If you add Teahen and Guillen's 2008 WARs together
they are about equal to Emil’s. At least using bUZR and baseball-reference linear weights.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
Point is
No one is as good as Emil Brown.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
At...
Reporters’ Eyes Target Shooting?
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 10, 2008 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
Justin Huber! Now!
The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib
A couple of things
Yeah, I think pretty much everyone recognizes the Guillen signing was a mistake, otherwise, Moore wouldn’t be actively trying to trade him.
You said that in reference to 2006 that, “even then, he (Furcal) was just above average.” I was just saying that even just glancing at the numbers would tell you that isn’t at all accurate. I like Furcal, but probably not as much as you think I do. :)
Furcal's 2006
I just changed my spreadsheet, actually, I couldn’t remember. My old one had his 2006 as being very good on both side of the ball. My new one had the same offense, but bad defense. So I think he was good (although that season was almost as much of an “outlier” as 2007’s collapse, although I’m not much for "outliers"). So we aren’t that far apart.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
Can someone tell me why MLBTV isn't starting til January?
Wouldn’t this have been the perfect timing for that? Then MLB could’ve done what the NFL does and give all the breaking news first to MLBTv.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
Agreed
That was a curious decision
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 10:57 AM EST up reply actions
Forgive me if this was posted last night
But here is Dick Kaegel’s report
. Nothing much really, DM is playing it very close to the vest.
-DM will add a reliever either this week, or early next week – he did not deny they are talking to Kyle Farnsworth, Brandon Lyon, Russ Springer and Juan Cruz.
-Trey talked about the pen and mentioned Peralta, Yabuta and Duckworth. Yuck. I’m pretty sure though that he’s just putting a happy face on in case the Royals fail to sign a reliever
-DM doesn’t know if they’ll take anyone in the Rule 5
-DM doesn’t anticipate non-tendering anyone (I have to think Gobble and Gathright and possibly Peralta are all prime candidates)
-DM denies the Greinke for Franceour talk
-DM says the trade front is “unpredictable”
Again, he’s playing it pretty close to the vest, not showing his cards at all.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
yeah, Cruz would be nice...
but giving up a first or second round pick just so that we can get the reliever we want for a year or two? Pass.
The only other reliever on that list worth getting at all excited about is Lyon, but I don’t think we’re going to land him.
I'm 95% sure Lyon is a type B free agent
So his old team would get a draft pick, but it would not be at our expense.
Springer and Cruz are both type A free agents. So I’m sort of hoping we don’t sign either of them.
my apologies
I was under the impression that type b’s still got compensation from the team that signs him..
It would cost us our second round pick.
Our first round pick is protected.
Go Royals!
I'd be fine with giving Peralta another shot
Royals, NBA, Golden Hurricane, Hawkeyes, Chiefs, and KU basketball, in that order.
Great JoPo Column
His picture just keeps getting funnier:
Preparing for an audition for the new Scorcese film about the Polish Mob
Nice reliable mockery of the way the “Greinke-for-Francoeur” rumor gets started. Still, Ihave to say this quote frustrates me — not in a “OMG DMGM SUX” way, more in a “well, I guess he’s probably just another GM, all things considered” way:
The Royals and Dayton Moore do like Jeff Francoeur. "The guy’s one of the greatest competitors I’ve ever been around," Moore says, and he has repeated similar compliments enough times, to enough people, that everyone around the game knows Moore would like to have Francoeur.
Don’t get me wrong — I think makeup is important. Everyone does. Read the beginning of Moneyball, in the draft room even the stats guys for the As take makeup seriously. But we aren’t talking about a kid working his way through the minors. We’re talking about a guy who has been in the majors for several years, never posted a good OBP, doesn’t seem to be improving, was still the focus of Braves marketing, and even his usually good defense has fallen off the table. I’m not sure how much “competitiveness” can make up for sheer suckitude at this point.
Like I said, no big deal. If Moore is just expressing affection for a kid he’s known for a long time, then that makes Moore likeable. No biggie. If he really thinks Francoeur has signfiicant value or upside at t his point, that’s another issue.
/irrelevant rant
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
I don't think
you can ever unoquivically (sp) eliminate someone from discusssions of future productivity.
Case in point…if you would have told me that Rocco freaking Baldelli would ever contribute to the Rays again, I would have said you were crazy. And he was coming off of a major injury.
Farancouer has just sucked. No real injury trouble, he’s just lost his mojo.
Obviously Greinke is a retarded discussion, but if he can be gotten with little given up, he’s a worthy player to take a cheap flyer on.
oh, I agree
but really cheap. I wouldn’t even give Teahen for him at this point.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
And despite Baldelli's problems with injuries
when he was healthy, he was way better than Francoeur was, imo
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
jinx!
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
hard to say
Rocco only really had 1 good year. Basically, you are saying Angel Berroa is better than Francoeur also…
Oh no, you're not getting another boring spreadsheet out of me...
WPA/LI (quasi-linear weight wins above average) per year:
Frenchy:
2005: 0.63
2006: -0.07
2007: -0.51
2008: -2.63
total: -2.58
Rocco:
2003: -0.01
2004: -0.80
2006: 0.76
2007: -0.76
2008: 0.12
total: -0.69
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 11:30 AM EST up reply actions
Steve Phillips on 810 right now
an anxious nation holds it’s collective breath to see what nuggets of wisdom are dropped into the heartland…
I hereby resign from this post.
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Dec 10, 2008 11:36 AM EST reply actions
SI is confirming the terms of the Sabathia contract...
Tooly is saying it is 7 years, $160M, which would make Sabathia the highest paid pitcher ever. The Yankees have close to $90M in bloated contracts coming off the books this year, but still…some things never change.
And the Yankees still aren’t done—they are in talks with Lowe and Burnett as well.
But hey, "small market teams can still compete"
Ginormous emphasis on the word “CAN”…
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 10, 2008 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
That's what SHE said...
I hereby resign from this post.
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Dec 10, 2008 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
Big overweight body already+
7 years + Overpitched already = Yankees Overpaid as usual
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
Cf. the time they went for Randy Johnson over Carlos Beltran
C. C. is better than Johnson was at that point, but if they chose Sabathia over Teixeira..
Lesson: if people think overpaying for Sabathia is a bad idea for the Yankees, why would overpaying for Rafael Furcal be a good idea of the Royals?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
Because he is a good player that the royals have no depth in, either...
at the MLB or minor league level, and the contract is roughly 25% the size of Sabaitha’s. The Royals could really use a player like Furcal.
agreed. But they shouldn't be overpaying for anyone, at least not without making their roster more efficient
I’m not saying Furcal isn’t good. He is good. Not great, but good. He’s a better investment that Burrell would be, and 4/40 for Furcal would be much, much smarter than 3/36 for Guillen or even 5/90 for Toriiiiii.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
I agree you shouldn't overpay...
unless you’re one player away from contention or the Yankees. I tend to think Moore legitimately believes the Royals could contend in 2009 with Furcal. I’m not saying I agree I just think his trades this off-season seem designed to maximize the 2009 win total.
The Yankees
are the product of what happens when the fans run the team. The only reason they have to sign him for that price is to ward off the 100,000 ‘why the bleep didnt we get Santana or Sabathia’ comments and fan backlash
Yankees Spending Spree has begun
Looking at adding a 5th year for AJ Burnett
Hank Steinbrenner wants ManRam
Hank is gonna end up being just like his father.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
Really disappointed CC went to the Yanks
I was hoping FAs would pass them over and I was looking forward to seeing CC hit in the NL. Plus I was holding out hope the Brew Crew would land him.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
as everyone has probably already noted
it would be completely appropriate for CC to end up in Milwaukee
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
Terrible Deal for the Yankees
Player controlled opt out clause after 3 years and a no trade clause.
The Yanks continue to be the FA whipping boy must suck to be the rich kid.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
that opt out might actually help them
but I have a hard time seeing this as a smart deal for them
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
Season ticket payments are due today.
I don’t know if that impacts what the Royals do, I’m just sayin.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I'll split em with you
If you ever move back to KC
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 12:33 PM EST up reply actions
that would be awesome
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
well, i'll always have the nationals
1) a horrible team
2) in a division and league I have no interest in
3) in a stadium that takes me at least 45 minutes to get to each way
You get to see Willie Harris 81 times a year
That is something.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
Willie Harris had a monster year in the field
Would have been the second best OF on the Royals this past year, easy.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
Slick Willie, 2008
+17 RAR hitting, -3 positional adjustment, +19 defense = +33 RAR = 3 WAR.
Would have been the third best positional player on the Royals.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
ha
I think Gammons believed what he wrote, but I also think that while teams should be figuring out defense, that it’s really another mask for collusion, just like Selig is trying to do with the economic climate.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 1:12 PM EST up reply actions
May I ask?
Are you at Catholic U? Georgetown? Other?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
meh, what's a couple of hours
Biblical Greek has been around for thousands of years, it’s not going to change this afternoon.
After all, the Royals might ink Kyle Farnsworth!
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 3:15 PM EST up reply actions
that should be worth an extra $1M for Farns alone
didn’t Mark Teahen tell Mellinger that Farns was the guy he’d most avoid in a fight? And then Mellinger told Farns?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 3:17 PM EST up reply actions
Ive had season ticks for the last 5 years
WOOOOOO.. the weekend package though.. its a preety good deal.. go opening day then every friday, sat, sunday
Werd.
See you there
I’ll be the one in the “Jason Smith” jersey
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
Another side note worth mentioning
I think the Ramon Hernandez trade helps us a fair amount in establishing John Buck’s trade value. The last couple years, Hernandez’s offensive output has been a small notch higher than Buck’s (Hernandez posted OPS+’s of 88 and 86, Buck has OPS+’s of 90 and 79), but Hernandez is overweight and physically declining while Buck has had an impeccable bill of health for his entire MLB career, plus Hernandez’s defense has gone completely to shit. So, I think Buck is probably the more valuable catcher…which is good, since the Reds basically got Hernandez for spare parts (32-year-old utility man Ryan Freel plus a couple of unremarkable minor-league hitters). I still think, at the very least, Buck is worth a decent, B-level prospect, and I’d much rather Moore acquire one decent player for Buck than three mediocre benchwarmers.
Hope he tries to get pitching
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 12:33 PM EST up reply actions
I was thinking
The Laird deal set the table. Buck is slightly worse than Laird offensively, and probably quite a bit worse defensively, but the Rangers actually got a decent young pitcher for him and a really young minor leaguer…maybe we could get two okayish prospects for Buck.
Houston seems like a good fit. And don’t underestimate Boston and the Baird connection.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
Can't wait for Buck to hit 20 homers for the Red Sox
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
if that happens...
I might cry. In case you haven’t noticed by the tone of my post on the Hernandez trade, I have mostly moved to the “acceptance” stage of grieving after hearing that Hillman and Moore were dumb enough to name Olivo the #1 catcher. If Buck hits 20 dingers for the BoSox in 2009, I might regress to, I dunno, the denial phase.
+1
I think you, me, and NHZ are the only members left in the John Buck fan club, unfortunately.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
I am a fan
Because he keeps hitting 20 bombs a year in my DMB league and I keep thinking real John Buck will live up to virtual John Buck.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
what's DMB?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
Yes
A nice little simulation game I play to pass the time while watching the baby.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I think loyal2 likes him, as well
all are welcome, membership discount is al an all-time low…
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
And with your membership discount,
you can play Mormon baseball player bingo every Monday night as a part of Family Home Evening.
We should stop talking about him
Now I’m getting mad again. Over John Freaking Buck.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 1:08 PM EST up reply actions
I like Buck
I just don’t think he’s likely to get much better. I wouldn’t have re-signed Olivo, but now that he’s here, along with Pena and House, somebody should be traded. If Buck can get the Royals the best haul in trade, do it.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
when I see Buck, I see Beltran
The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib
Who Do You
See when you see Beltran?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Dec 11, 2008 1:08 AM EST up reply actions
see, I didn't think the Laird deal did quite as much for us
because Laird is pretty clearly the more valuable catcher. Hernandez and Buck are very different catchers, but I think their trade value is probably a little more equal, weighted towards Buck however.
The market for Buck should have more clarity
with Hernandez, Ross, and Laird finding homes. The teams have still need catching will have to come to the teams like KC who have some depth. Red Sox will need a competent compliment to go with Tek when he resigns. Astros and Marlins seems to have needs too.
oh, and as far as a potential Boston trade goes...
What do you think about Buck for Yamaico Navarro?
Unfortunately, not a lot of players in the Astros farm system excite me that much. But maybe Moore could fleece Wade somehow.
I don't know who Yamaico Navarro is
but it’s a great name
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
he's a SS prospect who ended the year in high A ball
Good all around hitter, fairly toolsy. I think he’s 20 years old. Sickels has him at a B-.
Is it possible
That Teahen and Buck are traded in the same offseason. All vestiges of the Beltran trade gone forever…
I think she is out hunting moose and caribou
stocking up for winter
The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib
campaignin's hard!
The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib
by buddyball on Dec 10, 2008 12:42 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Are the Royals making a run at signing her?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
why not, would
I’d bet $100 Dayton voted for her
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
She clearly has a knack for PR...
if they did sign her, I suppose we could expect regular press conferences from Moore and Hillmand with similar backdrops.
I suppose turkey slaughtering might distract from some of Hillman’s more questionable decisions.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 10, 2008 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
She's spying on Russia
from her front lawn.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
She's Very Toolsy
For a Valley Trash chick.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Dec 10, 2008 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
that's what he said
The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib
DM is taking David Glass' money
To the roulette table in the hopes he can double his money and afford Adam Dunn.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I have a bad feeling that the number isn't going to be as low as most of us want it to be
If it is $2M or more than one year, I’m going to throw up in my mouth a little.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 1:59 PM EST up reply actions
well, he'll likely be gone by mid-season
although paying $2 for a c-level prospect seems pointless
i’d rather just throw that into the greinke fund
I don't think a minor reliever signing affects the amount of money that Moore and Glass are willing to offer Greinke
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
I will defer to DM on relievers
Farnsy doesn’t make a lick of sense to me, but DM has earned the benefit of the doubt on bullpen construction.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
True
I just hope this isn’t a tools-only, completely ignoring results evaluation process.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
I'm so tired
Of your constant negativity towards everything Dayton does!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
It's my new obsession
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
aren't you a lawyer?
They HAVE to be negative. It’s how they are programmed to think in law school… my sister went to Wash Law… I know.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
I prefer to think of it as critical thinking
And critical can be negative. :)
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
He's been good
but I wouldn’t go that far, unless we’re willing to give people a pass on mocking every single position player move he makes.
He’s been good with the bullpen — Riske, Ramirez, also Tejeda and Ho-Ram. Dotel to a lesser extent.
On the other hand, I’m not sure Greinke in the bullpen for most of last year makes him a wizard. Nunez wasn’t his guy. The truth is that Mahay was a good sign, but ended up being barely above replacement level (so he was way overpaid).
I’m not saying he sucks — on the contrary, I have faith in it. But Farns projects as below replacement level. IF McClure makes him a $1M player, then fine… if he’s only paid $1M max.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 2:29 PM EST up reply actions
unless we’re willing to give people a pass on mocking every single position player move he makes.
Most do. Giving Moore the benefit of the doubt on relievers would only be fair.
On the other hand, I’m not sure Greinke in the bullpen for most of last year makes him a wizard.
I also don’t think the General Manager deserves the credit or blame for that. Generally GM’s don’t dictate the roles players play. And I really don’t think DM and Buddy had that kind of relationship. In short, I’m confident that was Buddy’s call. Also, Greinke said that it helped him a lot, because in that role (in part with Riske’s guidance) he learned how to rely on his fastball, maximize velocity and not rely on pinpoint control, and use his FB as an out pitch.
Nunez wasn’t his guy.
This is a criticism of Moore?
IF McClure makes him a $1M player, then fine… if he’s only paid $1M max.
McClure might do nothing for him. McClure, and neutral luck could easily make him a $2M pitcher (theoretically). It’s not like a $2M reliever is great. If that is where the bar is set, it isn’t set very high.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not
Nunez wasn’t a criticism of Moore — I’m just saying that it’s not like he picked him up off the scrap heap.
I’m simply point out that if we call “objectively” analyze for objective analysis rather than dismissal of position player moves (which is the right thing when it comes to analysis, if not entertainment pieces), then we have objectively analyze pitchers, as well, rather than just giving the benefit of the doubt.
Ross Gload sucks. CoCo Crisp is good.
Joakim Soria is good, Kyle Farnsworth sucks.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
Nunez wasn’t a criticism of Moore — I’m just saying that it’s not like he picked him up off the scrap heap.
True, but he did call him up. And going into the 2007 season, I don’t think anyone was talking about Nunez as a guy who might help the bullpen. But I do think Moore gets very little credit for Nunez.
I’m simply point out…rather than just giving the benefit of the doubt.
Fair enough. First, I think it is fair and intelligent to add the fact that Moore likes the player to the evaluation of a reliever he acquires. His track record counts for something. It doesn’t mean that every pitcher he acquires is going to be good. But his evaluation has proven correct more times than not, so I think that should tell us something positive about any pitcher he acquires. It’s just one factor to consider. Second, even statgeeks like us recognize that tools and that which is not counted are important elements of evaluation, along with stats. Stageeks like us are good at evaluating players with stats. Moore and his people are good at evaluating pitchers by looking at tools. So I don’t think our statistical analysis is the beginning and end of pitcher evaluation.
Ross Gload sucks. CoCo Crisp is good.
Joakim Soria is good, Kyle Farnsworth sucks.
“Farnsworth sucks.” That is what the stats say. The stats also very clearly showed after the 2006 season that Gil Meche was no better than a #4 starter. The numbers were pretty unambiguous. And yet Moore and is people recognized that he was actually better than that. They were right. This is just to show that tools count, and pitching coaches can count too. It also shows that Moore and his people are good at finding and acquiring pitching talent, beyond just what the stats say. And they aren’t good at that for position players.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 2:54 PM EST up reply actions
gone by mid-season
just like Mahay
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 2:25 PM EST up reply actions
Such cynicism
And cynicism regarding Moore and relievers? That takes some work.
First, if Mahay isn’t traded at the deadline, he will likely become a type 5 FA, and a sandwich pick. Riske became a sandwich pick. Could Farnsy become a Type B? Definitely. Maybe not, but it is not unrealistic.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
Sorry, Mr. Rove
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
Huh?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
Yankees fans also moan about A-Rod
I would hate to add that guy.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
Yup, Farns = A-Rod
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think there was a point there
The point being that how Yankees fans react to a player is meaningless…at best. Who would have thought that signing Farnsworth would push your snark button.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
...or your defensiveness lever
is he even signed yet?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
Nope
Besides, maybe Moore pulls a stealthy ninja move and signs Springer when we were all thinking it would be Farns.
Zing!
Someone is in a mood.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 2:56 PM EST up reply actions
Our only hopes for Farnsworth being significantly better as a Royal
1. He had some back batted ball and HR/FB luck in 2008, so his numbers should regress (positively) to a better mean.
2. Maybe McClure can help him spot his fastball better and perhaps not rely on his slider too much.
I still don’t like him, but if Dayton Moore does, then that at last says something positive about him.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 2:12 PM EST up reply actions
In Farnsworth's defense
I will say that a Farns-Olivo battery would make me think twice about ever charging the mound.
But if he is signed to anything more than a 1 year/2M deal (maybe with a club option for a second year), then I might cry even if Buck doesn’t hit 20 bombers at Fenway next year.
I don't know
that performance Olivo showed off against the Sox was that scary
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
On the positive side
It is almost certainly going to be less costly and he will be brought in for a less important role.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 2:56 PM EST up reply actions
I agree
but like what other people have said, I tend to trust Moore’s faith in pitchers. Moore’s only two significant screw-ups as far as signing pitchers have been Yabuta and Tomko, and both were signed to relatively low-cost, low-risk contracts. Compare that to signing Meche and Mahay, finding Soria in the Rule 5 draft, and acquiring RamRam, HoRam, and Tejeda for next to nothing…Moore’s successes far outnumber his failures in finding pitching, so, I’m not too concerned.
If this had been Allard Baird drooling over Farns, though, I’d probably be singing a different tune.
Allard would be bringing in Farnsworth to be the veteran closer
Then, due to being the only halfway decent reliever on staff, his arm would fall off after the all-star break.
Maybe it's just my "mood" getting in the way of objectivity
But even ignoring luck and using ERA above replacement * his 1.09 leverage, Mahay still didn’t quite “earn” his salary, being worth just under $3.6M. If you use FIP, he was worth just over $1M. If you use tRA, he was below replacement level…
I do think Moore has been good with pitchers, and the Mahay signing at the time wasn’t awful or anytyhing. I just disagree that Mahay should go on the list of “successes.”
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
you need to get over “replacement level” for 1/2 the season Mahay was PERFORMING on an all star level. His injury shortened his season and his productivity. The reason this team performed above their pythag was because of the bullpen and Mahay was a Huge part of that for half the season. If he returns to close to that level it doesn’t matter what your BS numbers tell you the actuality of it is he will have earned every cent of his contract.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
I wish advanced metrics were broken down by month
I just don’t think he was truly outstanding before his injury. He was good or pretty good before the injury, not great.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
That would be a really nice way to measure the impact of injuries
And while injuries are part of a player’s performance, I do agree that his value is higher than the full-season-impacted-by-injury numbers tend to show. His 1st half value may be overstated by his then stellar ERA, but he clearly wasn’t the same pitcher when he returned from injury.
right, he could very well be better next year
I wasn’t even talking about projection — I was evaluating Mahay’s overall performance this year. Injry effected or not, his overall line is not impressive, and not worth $4M, even when I used the most generous estimations.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
Your saberstats are for projections
the facts are he was a lefty reliever who pitched 56+ innings with a 1.75 ERA who pitched complete innings against both lefties and righties. Those are All Star type numbers for any reliever the only difference was he didn’t pitch the ninth inning.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
sorry, but his whole year counts
he had a 3.48 ERA
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
And also other stats are more telling than his ERA
And they are less pretty.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
The reality of the situation is his ERA
yes if you want to talk about Projections then bring up the other stats. The reality is how he performed for the team and he was performing at all star levels until his injury. His plantar fasciitis injury is what got him to the 3.48 ERA d_f just ask Tim Duncan’s plummeting average.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
Only ERA = "reality"?
That’s bizarre. FIP describes reality. xFIP describes reality. tRA describes reality. And each of those three do a better of describing reality in a meaningful and reliable way.
All season long, he put too many runners on base, and usually wiggled his way out of trouble. He danced with the devil and got away with it. That’s not a description of an excellent, dominant pitcher (at any point of the season).
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
Disagree
It doesn’t matter if he put runners on base that didn’t score. The fact remains that those runners didn’t score and he found a way to wiggle out of those situations. If you want to make that your argument for why he won’t succeed next year then do that but that does’t make for a good argument for ’08.
d_f injury argument would be the only one that really held water for saying he didn’t perform up to his 4 mil pay. I disagree to that just based on the deal Affeldt got in a depressed market. Affeldt stats for the season were very similar to Mahays and he got the same deal in a heavily depressed market. If ’09s market was normal Jeremy probably gets more money and/or years.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
It doesn’t matter if he put runners on base that didn’t score. The fact remains that those runners didn’t score and he found a way to wiggle out of those situations
While I think ERA captures something of value, good performance for a pitcher is about reliably getting outs and not putting runners on base. THAT is the description and measure of success. Not your relative luck with keeping runners on base from scoring.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
Disagree
The goal of any pitcher is not to keep runners off base, but to prevent runs. When looking at past performance, I couldn’t care less how many walks and hits he gave up — only how many of those turned into runs. If he prevented runs, no matter how ugly it might have been, that’s success.
When trying to predict future performance, it matters how those outs were recorded. So if you’re trying to predict how much a pitcher will be worth or how successful he’ll be in the future, absolutely, take other factors into account.
Royals, NBA, Golden Hurricane, Hawkeyes, Chiefs, and KU basketball, in that order.
The goal of any pitcher is not to keep runners off base, but to prevent runs. When looking at past performance, I couldn’t care less how many walks and hits he gave up — only how many of those turned into runs. If he prevented runs, no matter how ugly it might have been, that’s success.
What is most meaningful about past performance is those outs recorded and runners allowed on base. The number of runners who scored from those outs includes a lot of luck based on when and how the runners were bunched. So looking at the most meaningful and reliable measures means looking at many other things before ERA, and weighting ERA pretty low.
If a pitcher was “pitching ugly” but didn’t allow runs, then he didn’t pitch well. And I want to use metrics that show me how well a pitcher was truly pitching.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 5:18 PM EST up reply actions
I think we might be arguing about different things, kcscoliny (you need to pick a handle that is easier for me type!)
In my original cmment, I’m just valuing his performance this past year vs. his contract, not his value going forward.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
We just re-acquired
Cuevas from the Braves.
HOORAY!
This Winter Meetings was totally worth it!
Now if only we could re-acquire Wes Bankston.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I can't help but imagine that
when reacquiring a player that was claimed from you, a silly British slap fight would ensue.
maybe a fish slapping contest ala Monty Python
The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib
NO.....
just another waiver claim.
http://www.kansascity.com/news/breaking_news/story/931038.html
Now just
1 open spot on the 40 man roster……we will definitely take someon in the Rule 5 i would think
So the Royals had 2 open spots on the 40-man before this waiver claim?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
Ok, so I guess Cuevas and Fulchino opened two spots, and re-acquiring Cuevas brings us back down to 39.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 3:35 PM EST up reply actions
They better not f- w Dayton, just ask the Mariners
he took their RF, Gil, Ho-Ram, he made their stats consultant two-time them… the Braves don’t want any part of this war.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
Any body with a keener sense of "market timing" than me?
Wouldn’t it make sense for the Royals to wait until after the Rule 5 draft to see if what they can get and then evaluate where their bullpen stands before signing a FA?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
I think the Rule 5 spot is for the 7th bullpen spot and Moore knows that he wants an upgrade from the 6th bullpen spot, regardless of what they get in the Rule 5.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
WRONG
if the Rule 5 pick isn’t another Soria, then the offseason was a bust
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 3:37 PM EST up reply actions
Ok, I'll grant you that
VEAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 3:38 PM EST up reply actions
And extra gravy
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
gotta lock that down
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
I think of Donald Veal as the love Child of Bland and GOB
That was an odd coupling.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
I couldn't get it to post
but I saw a picture of the actress that was actually pretty hot
she was really good in that role. I hope the whole “bland” thing didn’t hurt her chances of getting cast elsewhere.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 3:43 PM EST up reply actions
Looks like somebody's little sister got tarted up
But yes I have seen pics of her where she looks like a normal, attractive girl, and not Bland Veal.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
wait
sorry, I’m legit confused. So is Cuevas sort of “Rule 5 insurance,” in case they don’t see anyone they like in the draft? If they do get someone in the Rule 5, don’t they need to take someone off the 40-man? Or is that not until the Spring.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
Now you're confusing me
I believe there are currently 39 players on the 40-man roster. Add a Rule 5 draftee and the 40-man is at 40. If they sign a FA, they’ll need to DFA someone (like Cuevas…yet again).
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, that's what I thought
I’m just glad the Transaction rules are so transparent
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
MLB thinks it's better if we don't know these things
(and ignore that man behind the curtain too)
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
Probably won't announce a FA signing
Until after the Rule 5, then they can DFA someone like Mario Lisson and slip him through waivers.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Despite Springer's
age i would much rather have him than Farnsworth…..seen him struggle too much with his straight fastball.
Need anything else be said?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
Baseball Writers' Association of America adds four internet writers
Neyer
Kahrl
Carroll
Law
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
I fanshotted this, is is OK if I didn't "consolidate" with the Winter meetings thread
cf. my always witty commentary there
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, it is good fanshot material (I just hadn't seen it yet)
This isn’t really Winter Meetings material.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 3:43 PM EST up reply actions
Wow, at least 2 of those guys rip on that association constantly
Power to the people!
Now they need to do something
About their eye-burning website. Seriously, it looks like a geocities page from 1997.
http://www.baseballwriters.org/
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
as one would expect
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
I loved altavista for a while
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
Report says Furcal wants 4 at 13 per year
A’s offered 4 @ 9.
KC should probably pass at a 4 year deal.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
4/52 is what Furcal and his agent have thrown out there for more than a month
It is more than clear that no one will give him that. I think the A’s offer is the most he can get for 4 years. For 3 years, he can probably get 3/33 or 3/36 from someone.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
I think someone might go a bit higher than the As for 4
but you’re right. Not much higher.
Snakeskin Boots might swoop in with 4/45 or something.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
Could be
I think 4/40 is doable by someonel like the Dodgers. 4/45 would surprise me, but Ned has surprised me before.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
I can't remember for sure
but I remember doing a (even more primitive) retrospective projection for A-Jones, and 2/36 looked pretty good… yikes…
…and that’s why cheap young talent rules.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 4:07 PM EST up reply actions
that's a negotiating ploy
4/52? Off the top of my head, I’m not sure there is a single position player I’d offer that to, other than Mark Teixeira, who is worth way more than that, of course.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
It's a Boras-like tactic
Try to skew the market value by starting with a crazy huge number.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
(i mean fo the position players available this year)
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
O-Dawg!!!!????!!!!????!!!!????
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
I have read on here but don't fee like looking
with Hudson, we would lose a pick and Furcal we wouldn’t right????
by powder blues on Dec 10, 2008 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
Yes
I think his likely price plus the draft pick makes him not worth it. I was just joking with d_f who likes O-dog, but I’m sure doesn’t want to give him 4/52.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
yeah
the draft pick thing sucks, because I do think he’s a slightly better sign that Furcal, but even the projected 4/48 is too much given his age and stuff. And that’s besides the draft pick.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
Hasn't Hudson
had injury issues the past 2 years as well? I just looked it up and only once in the last 6 years has he played more than 150 games.
by powder blues on Dec 10, 2008 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, that's why I wouldn't got 4/48 on him
Furcal being an SS is balanced by his major injury and Hudson’s superior bat, from where I stand, by ymmv
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
I would go 3 for 36
with no problem if we can deal Jose…..but if ownership will give us more money then spend it now and try to trade Guillen later. I think sometimes we have to take risks.
by powder blues on Dec 10, 2008 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
Moore might be telling Glass something like this:
“I want Furcal and we can get him for $X, but it would have to be within the next 48 hours. He won’t be on the market much longer. Now, I can’t trade Guillen right now, but someone will take him and most of his contract off of our hands, but it will take a few months, after the FA crop has thinned. If you give me the Furcal money now, I promise to trade Guillen and most of his contract by opening day.”
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
That would make sense….then we could keep Teahan in RF and have an above average defensive outfield. We would be rid of Guillen’s attitude and Jacobs would provide the bad OBP and power that left with him.
by powder blues on Dec 10, 2008 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
But if the Royals lose Guillen
who will take the role of “Yeah, Jacobs sucks, but at least he’s better than x?”
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
Well
considering everyone and their grandma is better than John Buck………..the answer would be JOHN BUCK!
by powder blues on Dec 10, 2008 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
I think he'll be better than Olivo next year
He has been most years.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
but that’s not saying much either. Just tired of watching Buck strike out with less than 2 outs and a runner on 3rd.
by powder blues on Dec 10, 2008 4:15 PM EST up reply actions
Buck has been awful for a full season and a half consecutively.
by djk royal on Dec 10, 2008 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Jacobs hasn't been close to 1 WAR the last three years
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
If Jacobs is used correctly...
as a platoon DH he will be an asset.
Unfortunately, I think there is no reason to think he’ll be used that way.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with that
but the platoon advantage in his stats and not playing defense are offset by a DH being worth less (although not in his case) and reduced playing time.
Now, if he could still catch..
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
Anyone Can Catch
Poorly.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Dec 11, 2008 1:31 AM EST up reply actions
Well, he's a catcher
With a few exceptions, catcher’s can’t hit.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:15 PM EST up reply actions
sadly
once you adjust for position and defense, both Buck and Olivo are almost a win better than Jacobs next year
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
that is truly sad. wow.
by Fernando Vina School of Linguistics on Dec 10, 2008 8:43 PM EST up reply actions
you won't believe this
but guys who project as league-average hitters but can only DH just aren’t that valuble.
I do need to read up on adjusting for guys use only in platoons. That wuold help his rate stats, but the decline in playing time will cut into that.
And keep in mind those are projections, not predictions.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 10:43 PM EST up reply actions
Latest on Furcal
Posted by Steve Phillips
The Royals, Blue Jays, A’s and Dodgers remain in the mix for free-agent shortstop Rafael Furcal. K.C.‘s front office has asked ownership for more money. The A’s had their offer rejected, but they’re still in it.
David Glass said yes
But only if he could spend one night with Dayton Moore’s wife.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 4:00 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Zing!
Do we have any pics of Mrs. Moore?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
I assume Dayton's an ex-jock
I’m guessing she’s an attractive, late-30s, early 40s woman. Probably a former cheerleader/volleyball player he met while getting his Masters in P.E.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
That's my guess
I bet she’s attractive, but conservative for her age. She plays the role of a corporate executive’s wife. Probably a tiger in the sack. I’ll give DM the benefit of the doubt. He’s earned it.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:15 PM EST up reply actions
I wonder if retrosheet has a record of his past flings
that would be a complicated SQL script…
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 4:15 PM EST up reply actions
In that movie, a night with the wife only got $1M
That’s only Farnsy money.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
Deal!
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:05 PM EST up reply actions
On a separate note, I was wondering at what price point other teams would be interested in Guillen
A team might view him as a legit power bat who could rebound from injuries but not for 2/12. Maybe 2/18 or 2/16?
Even if the Royals had to spend $8m over 2 years, it would be worth it with any sort of player in return – and I mean any player…it would only be a salary dump.
I think once Dunn, Burrell, Ibanez and Abreu are signed, the market for Guillen opens up a bit
If there are still some teams with money desperate for a corner OFer (and who like his raw power skills) at that point, I think someone might take him and 3/4 of his contract. Maybe more.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:07 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not sure I'm willing to part with Gload to make it happen
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
you may just have to come to grips with that, my friend
you can’t make an omlette without cracking some eggs…
The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib
so we should be rooting hard
for a team like the yankees or cubs or someone to pick up one as DH and one as LF so more teams have COF vacancies.
Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.
Oops, that was supposed to be 2/24 not 2/12. 2/12 - Now that would be a deal!
I think even the Royals were on the hook for 4m a year it would be worth it to move him. 5-6m may be even be worth it depending on the who the replacement is.
Sorry if this has already been posted
Buster Olney says the A’s met again with Furcal last night. Apparently Oakland’s four-year offer had been worth about $36MM. Meanwhile Steve Phillips says Royals GM Dayton Moore asked ownership for more money to sign Furcal.
Werd.
ESPN also
said Furcal’s agent is looking for 4/52.
Lets offer 4/46
With incentives that might bring it up to 52. Like 1.5 for each time he is an all star?
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
4/46 is too much
4/40 is too much.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
Both are right
Both are too much.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
that's what I'm asking...
What’s the right deal for him?
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
3/36 would be my ceiling for the Royals
3/33 would be even better
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
he's already turned that down...
do we keep pursuing or go in another direction?
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
He turned down 4/36
3/36 is a better deal for him than 4/36. With a 3/36 deal, you go back into free agency with a chance to sign another decent contract.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
but if GMDM had to ask for more money...
what does taht mean?
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
Moore has a payroll budget, but both he and Glass have always said that these budget numbers aren’t carved in stone. He can always go to Glass and pitch a player and a contract to him and Glass might go higher than the budgeted number.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
But that doesn't tell us how much Moore might be willing to offer Furcal.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:36 PM EST up reply actions
Sounds good to me
Write it up and fax it to Mr. Kinzer.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
Not very
If reports are accurate, there are still multiple teams bidding on Furcal. The A’s say they are looking elsewhere, but their 4/36 offer is still on the table and they don’t have any other very good options. So Furcal can afford to wait right now and see if someone will beat that offer. If not, he can fall back on the A’s offer.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
he seems like he is in a little bit of a hurry.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
Could be
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
And I'm looking for a supermodel to sleep with
I think both Furcal and I will end up being disappointed.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
did he look in the pockets of the pants he wore last night?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 4:16 PM EST up reply actions
I don't like 4 years and anything
really…..offer him 3 for 39 ……..it gets him his 13 million a year but with less years. He can prove himself again and still get another decent payday in 3 years.
I’d do 3/36, so of course I’d do 4/36, but the former would obviously be the better deal for Furcal.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
i guess i would do 4 for 40 or less but
anything over 10 mil a year i would only do 3 years…..3/39 would be my max and i think worth it once we deal Guillen.
by powder blues on Dec 10, 2008 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
I don't even know if I'd do 4/40
A guaranteed fourth year would probably be a dealbreaker for me.
some sort of vesting option, maybe
but I’d want to reduce the original deal a bit. I suspect he wouldn’t go for that.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
I think he and his agent both thing (correctly, in my view)
that this is his last big payday. So they are going to really push for 4. That’s just the sad reality of most aging athletes. Well, not that sad, considering he’s a millionaire.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
would making the fourth year a vesting option be a potential compromise?
IE, starts as a club option and if Furcal gets to [x] number of plate appearances (I dunno, 500) that year, it becomes a player option. It makes sense from the club side, because if Furcal is getting that many plate appearances it would imply that he is both still durable and productive, and it would make sense from Furcal’s side because, well, if he keeps playing, he gets his fourth year.
I like that idea a lot
But his agent might not. Putting on my agent shoes (which I love to do…they’re so comfortable, yet still look great), it would seem to me that it would be pretty easy for a team to limit PA’s to keep from making it a player option if they really didn’t want to pay him his 4th year.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 10, 2008 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
Most competently run teams won't do that
Because if it looks like the team is limiting playing time for a player solely to avoid living up to a contract, other FA’s won’t want to sign with that team.
I remember when there were a couple of people who asked why the Royals had let David Riske play so much as to turn his contract’s club option into a player option. The answer is simple—you don’t want to look like a douchebag employer to people whose services you are trying to retain.
Well, then Kinzer would have to tell his client...
that he doesn’t believe the Royals are one of those douchebag employers if that was part of the offer. I would like to think we have at the very least gotten past those days. Baby steps.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 10, 2008 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
I don't like that compromise
I think 3/36 is the edge of what he’s really worth, and still contains a lot of risk for the signing team (injury, faster than expected decline). Adding a vesting option for a fourth year when he’ll be well into decline wouldn’t be good for a team like the Royals.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
I agree, three years is the edge of what he is worth
I would not offer Furcal a guaranteed fourth year. But presumably, if Furcal is still getting 500+ PA’s a year in 2011, it is because he has avoided injuries and is still reasonably productive—otherwise, he would be on the DL or riding the pine, in which case the Royals would retain the club option and could simply buy out the fourth year. Bottom line—the only way the Royals get on the hook for that fourth year is if Furcal stays healthy and doesn’t suck during his third year. There is some risk, but if it means netting Furcal at a slightly lower price overall for the last few productive years of his career, it may be worth it.
But presumably, if Furcal is still getting 500+ PA’s a year in 2011, it is because he has avoided injuries and is still reasonably productive
I would dispute the “reasonably productive” part of that statement. Usually, if you aren’t a rich team and you have a guy signed for a lot of money, he will get lots of regular playing time as long as he’s healthy, regardless of production (see Jose Guillen). So he could be rapidly declining with Moore and Hillman still saying that he’s a great presence on the field and that they love his defense, even if his hitting and range has evaporated. So I think a vesting option is very dangerous.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
The Royals haven't always done that
(see: Angel Berroa)
But he was getting a lot less money
And he wasn’t a “proven veteran.”
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
(now would be the time to make an ex-Braves joke)
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
$4-5M is still an awful lot to pay for an AAA shortstop
Berroa was making some pretty substantial bank.
That said, I see your point.
(sorry, should have read through everything before I repeated this point you made, DY)
we are really on the same page today… it just takes me a couple hours ot realize it
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
A $50,635,899-aire, according to Baseball Reference
Not allowing for income taxes and any investment returns.
I would say his last big payday was his 2005 contract with the Dodgers. He had to know that he was probably going to peak at the $15M he made last year.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 10, 2008 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
i'd give him 4 years
with an opt out clause if he doesn’t get at least 1000 PA’s in his first two years. i think that is plenty fair. if he performs well and is healthy the next two years, he’d easily get something like 2/22 in the market at that point.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
It depends on how big the offer is (and what other offers he gets)
He’s got a 4/36 offer on the table. Would he take a 4/48 offer with a club opt out clause like that? Maybe.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
Jesus Colome released
Good ERA the last two years, but pretty crummy K-BB ratios. Marcel projects him as a 4.23 ERA next year.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Free talent that projects better than the Prof.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
Well, not free but cheap
Seen his tRA the last two years? Yuck.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
nah, I was just going off Marcels (which doesn't do tRA)
he’s slightly above replacement level there, so not great. Without looking more deeply, I guess my “bias” (which I think it generally, if not specifically, a good one) is for younger talent that will come more cheaply. I also think in general it’s better to take a chance on a guy who will probably make around the minimum than wooing Farns for $1M. That kind of stuff adds up.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 4:58 PM EST up reply actions
I year you
And it is also possible that Colome and Farnsworth both end up making $1M on the FA market. It’s hard to say what the dollar value is for either pitcher in this market.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:59 PM EST up reply actions
YIKES!
that tRA* is dreadful… also didn’t realize he was 30. I just vaguely remember him from a fantasy waiver pickup a few years back (very deep league). Yeah… minor league deal only.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
Farns is coming off a 3/17 contract.
I would be very surprised if he signed for anything less than $4 mm.
I predict
1 year $1.75 million with a $2 million club option.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I think that's a good guess
You’ll at least be close.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 5:02 PM EST up reply actions
He'll take what he can get in this market
His poor performance in recent years and the nature of this year’s market means that his offers are going to be smallish, regardless of what he wants.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
Well obviously he'll take what he can get...
but he does strike out over a batter an inning.
from what I've read (rumors), that's almost he same rate at which he impregnates women
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
I dunno
it was just gossip that I read a while back. He allegedly doesn’t like to wear raincoats. Also was a bad exampe for Scott Proctor (another guy who the Royals should try to get simply because of the awesome nickname)
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 5:08 PM EST up reply actions
In addition to his K/9, his value is hurt by
- His decreasing velocity (now under 95 mph)
- the fact that his K/9 took a big dip in 2007 and rebounded some in 2008, but not to pre-2007 levels
- His 3-4 bb/9
- His 2.24 HR/9 in 2008
- His 4.80 and 4.48 ERA in 2007 and 2008
- and poor advanced defensive metrics for recent years
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
Whoops, typo
or Freudian slip or something. I meant to say that his advanced pitching metrics (FIP, xFIP, tRA, for instance) were crappy.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 5:19 PM EST up reply actions
Haha, thanks for clarifying
Those metrics would matter quite a bit more.
+1
Seriously, expecting a reliever to be any sort of a decent defender is slightly hilarious. Not quite as hilarious as, say, watching Octavio Dotel try to issue an intentional walk, but close.
Maybe pitcher's defense will become the new market inefficiency that small market teams need to exploit.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
The Royals should trade Greinke for Kenny Rogers
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
If only they had a huge stats department which would show them how good this is
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
i'd say Greinke is a better defender than Rogers
At their ages, I’d say it’s not particularly close either.
Zack might be the best defensive pitcher in baseball.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
What about factoring in...
AL pitchers’ hitting statistics for interleague play? Zack’s hitting has to be worth another win right there.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 10, 2008 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
It's like they said when TPJ pitched
the Royals shouldn’t pitch him too much, he might get hurt
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 6:39 PM EST up reply actions
He should pitch to contact more!
His strikeouts are hindering his playmakingl.
Ah, the 2003-2006 Royals pitchers, the masters of “pitching to contact.”
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 5:46 PM EST up reply actions
Did you ever hear Ryan's story about Rogers practicing grounders?
by andrewmiller on Dec 10, 2008 6:55 PM EST up reply actions
no
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 6:58 PM EST up reply actions
consider yourself lucky
it’s in his rotation of favorite stories….along with the Jarrod Washburn’s first career start (aka brawl game with the Angels). He MUST tell it every time he gets the chance. It’s almost at his Univ. of Minn. annoyingness level.
by Fernando Vina School of Linguistics on Dec 10, 2008 8:49 PM EST up reply actions
Nats released Jesus Colome
don’t know what his other stats look like but he might be worth a 1 year offer with the way McClure has healed the other relievers GMDM has picked up.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
Baseball America has a Rule 5 piece up
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=1818
What buzz there is has centered on Class A pitchers with stuff rather than track records. Among the names bandied about:
• RHP Jordan Pratt, Dodgers: The 2003 fifth-round pick out of an Oregon high school has yet to progress past Class A. He spent 2008 in high Class A Inland Empire and walked 67 (while striking out 80) in 69 innings. However, Pratt has premium stuff, with a fastball that consistently reaches 94 mph, and an inconsistent curveball and a premium cutter that helps him handle lefthanded hitters. They went 2-for-35 off him in Hawaii Winter Baseball, where Pratt showed off some smoother mechanics that helped him throw more strikes. Lefty David Pfeiffer of the Dodgers, a sidearmer, also was getting some attention.
• LHP Jordan Norberto, Diamondbacks: Norberto has upside, as he’s just 22 and has reached 96 mph with his fastball. He’s also spent the last two years in the low Class A Midwest League, striking out 220 in 204 innings while walking 102.
• IF Corey Wimberly, Rockies: No one in the class fits the utility profile better than Wimberly, a 5-foot-8 switch-hitter with plus speed and defensive versatility. Wimberly played second base, third base, shortstop and the outfield in ‘08 at Double-A Tulsa while posting a .370 on-base percentage. He lacks strength but has a solid track record as a hitter.
• RHP Loek Van Mil, Twins: The 7-foot-1 righthander has shown a fastball up to 97 mph in the past but has a partial ligament tear due after injuring his elbow just prior to the Beijing Olympics. Fellow Dutch national teamer Hainley Statia (Angels) remains the top middle-infield possibility in a thin group of players there.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
anyone who is 7 ft 1 and picked baseball over basketball
should immediately be disregarded.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
Who interests us?
I think that LHP Jordan Norberto. Wimberly would be a cheaper Este who is younger…
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
We already have three lefty relievers
Hopefully soon to be two with Gobble shown the door tomorrow.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Guys still in A-ball who are Rule 5 eligible don't interest me much
By rule, you have to have been in pro ball for several years in order to be Rule 5 eligible. If you’re still a toolsy A-ball guy after all those years, I’m not too excited about you. When there are toolsy guys who have had some real minor league success (although with admittedly spotty track records), I’d go with them (like Veal and that Rays pitcher).
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
Pretty sure he was
But there are exceptions to every rule
Yes
I think the A ball guys have a lot more upside, but are much less likely to contribute.
Johan Santana was also an A ball guy.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
A-ball guys who have spent 5 or 6 years at that level?
They’ve added a year of control since Santana and Soria were drafted. Even at that, guys who have been down at that level for multiple years have failed to move up the ladder for a reason. It’s not like we’re talking about good 20 year old A-ball prospects who still have huge upside.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:58 PM EST up reply actions
Van Mil and Norberto haven't been there that long
Just two years in Rookie ball, one year in A ball for Van Mil; one year of Rookie Ball, two years in A ball for Norberto
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
And just to clarify
I’m not that big on Van Mil or Norberto, just saying that a lot of international guys get exposed in the Rule 5 for weird reasons and have higher upside than the guys that are languishing in AAA.
I still think Veal or Morlan make much more sense for us. If we were in 2005, then I would say Van Mil or Norberto made more sense.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Very true
Good point about international players.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 5:02 PM EST up reply actions
unless it's for Anne Veal or one of those other dues
if Dayton passes on a 7-1 dutch guy, I’m going to be pissed. the comedy possibilities are way too great.
I’d even be willing to accept Farns on the team as his mentor.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 5:06 PM EST up reply actions
Ok, good points
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 5:02 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, but his case was unique
…given the odd path his pro career took before the Rule 5 Draft. If they can fine some similarly odd, exceptional case then go for it. I see a lot of guys who have just languished in A-ball on that list.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
Salary for Furcal
Going back to the Furcal salary conversation for a second, I think it’s pretty much pointless to contemplate anything involving 3 years. Furcal won’t take anything less than four, and further, he won’t take anything less than $11 mil per (or he would have accepted the A’s offer). So the entire conversation is: would you give Furcal 4/45? Because that is a fixed price, no doubt about it.
Now, the Dodgers might be able to get away with giving him 3 years, but that’s only because they’re going to offer him 3/40. That’s LA’s mojo, offering fewer years for more money per.
I'm about to change my username to DannyDuffyfan
by jackie ballgame on Dec 10, 2008 4:55 PM EST reply actions
"fewer years for more money per" = Ned Colletti's MO
I don’t think 4/45 is a fixed price for Furcal. That is what he’d like to get, no doubt, but if Oakland’s 4/36 offer is at all indicative of what the clubs think he’s worth, I doubt he’ll get anything like 4/45 or even 4/52. The Dodgers DO like to overpay for fewer years, but they are also involved in trying to re-sign ManRam, plus there are some rumors that ownership is finally trying to reign in Colletti’s spending and that the Dodgers may have to dump some salary.
Beyond LAD, there aren’t any really big market teams who are ireported to be in the running for Furcal and might be inclined to overpay for his services. If that is the case, Furcal may have to settle for something less than 4/45. In which case, the Royals may have an outside shot at snagging him for a Hoagie deal.
Furcal won’t take anything less than four,
He wants four, but he’ll take what he can get. If the best 4-year offer he gets is 4/36, then he’d jump at the chance to take 3/36.
he won’t take anything less than $11 mil per
Again, what he’ll take is limited by what will be offered. And money is tight in this market, unless you are an elite SP or Teixeira.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
Well, at the very least
we’d have to beat out the A’s. And the A’s offer was reported to be 4/40. So…just guessing here, but doesn’t that mean you have to beat 4/40?
I'm about to change my username to DannyDuffyfan
by jackie ballgame on Dec 10, 2008 5:13 PM EST reply actions
Who knows if the reports are true
But everyone was saying the A’s offered 4 years at 35-40 per year. Most I’ve read said it was 4/36. So we’d have to beat that. 3/36 beats that by more than a little.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 5:16 PM EST up reply actions
My bad
it was reported at “between 35 and 40” initially… Okay, so we have to beat 4/36
I'm about to change my username to DannyDuffyfan
by jackie ballgame on Dec 10, 2008 5:16 PM EST reply actions
Yeah. And even if the A's offer happened to be 4/40...
I think, from Furcal’s standpoint, 3/36 > 4/40.
he does know his mathematics
The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib
Got it
I'm about to change my username to DannyDuffyfan
by jackie ballgame on Dec 10, 2008 5:16 PM EST reply actions
Smoltz
There have been no rumors of any Royals interest here, but I thought I’d share this:
4:04pm: Rosenthal says “the Braves are prepared to lose Smoltz if another team offers him a significant guarantee on a one-year deal.”
I don’t know what “significant” is, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Moore had at least some preliminary interest here.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
I can't keep track
is he a going to be a starter or a closer?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 10, 2008 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
Who knows
He’s currently rehabbing and the big issue on him is health, so I assume he’d probably have to be used in relief, or in some mixture of starting and relieving to limit his innings (he could be this year’s Tomko!)
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 10, 2008 5:29 PM EST up reply actions
I think I'm going to create an overflow thread
We’re over 400 and things are slowing down.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
Overflow thread is up
Please jump to that thread for more Jairo Cuevas, Kyle Farnsworth, Rafael Furcal and Justin Huber discussion.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
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