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Winter Meetings Day Three Open Thread

Royalsreview_tiny by royalsreview on in News Comment 431 comments

Furcal mania hits day two!

  • SB Nation Hotstove Hub. Hey, at least you can read about the interesting things other teams are doing.
  • A few people here have mentioned the merits of signing Randy Johnson. Well, the Astros are on it.
  • JoePo/Poz on the crazy Royals rumors.
  • The 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 Atlanta Braves. Its just easier to get familiar with the names early. (Ducking.) I know the ex-Braves joke is borderline mainstream now, but I've just got to point out, if anybody was obsessing on it before me, I surely missed it. Something to be proud of I suppose.

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Comments

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+1

Even as shared fan with the Cubs, I was literally EXCITED about the possibility of CC perhaps maybe staying with the Brewers. It was making the rivalry fun. No there is no rivalry—-even more so if the Peavy deal goes the Cubs way. …I hate the Yankees. – TL

[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.

by timlacy on Dec 10, 2008 10:28 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So, is anybody else not quite excited about

potentially signing Furcal for four years? The last year seems like a definite sunk cost, as he probably won’t play much. I’d rather go two, but the money required for that is not available to the Royals.

by Bornin85 on Dec 10, 2008 9:30 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Uh, I'd be more excited...

…if the injury bug hadn’t bitten him so hard recently. It feels like a Juan Gonzalez move. – TL

[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.

by timlacy on Dec 10, 2008 10:29 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

and

the fact that it is his back brings memories of Sweeney.

by wetleg on Dec 10, 2008 11:02 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

color me as unexcited....

i’d be much more pumped if we could somehow swindle Baltimore for Brian Roberts….however that’s probably asking too much.

by Fernando Vina School of Linguistics on Dec 10, 2008 4:28 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

damn

I thought I’d get first since I’m teaching class and the kids are testing

In the Royals game of life, Neifi Perez is the rake.

by Matty486 on Dec 10, 2008 9:31 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This is what you guys get for your tax dollars

Teachers keeping the kids busy so they can keep up with the Winter Meetings

In the Royals game of life, Neifi Perez is the rake.

by Matty486 on Dec 10, 2008 9:32 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Back here in KC,

my teacher roommate is sleeping in because of the roads. While I had to drive to work all the same…

….

by Bornin85 on Dec 10, 2008 9:33 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

In class

We are supposed to be reading Romeo and Juliet, but I think we will just watch it so I can stay on the thread

In the Royals game of life, Neifi Perez is the rake.

by Matty486 on Dec 10, 2008 9:33 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

reading is for suckers

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 11:11 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm on the Kansas side

WE HAD SCHOOL!!! Sucks

In the Royals game of life, Neifi Perez is the rake.

by Matty486 on Dec 10, 2008 9:34 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I grew up in Blue Springs, MO

And I believe they wore it as a badge of honor that they never ever cancelled school. Then I moved to Kansas and they cancelled school if it was too cold out – no joke.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 10:52 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Trust me

It’s not a state-wide phenomenon.

by BrRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 11:03 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

you guys are lucky you don't live in Ontario

my wife has been teaching up here for 6 years — not one day canceled for snow

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 11:11 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

well, we don't ride our hardy caribou to school in Kansas City

…so we kinda have to wait for the snowplows to do their thing.

(But I live in California now, so…hah. No snow. Ever.)

by DarthYoshi on Dec 10, 2008 11:19 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm near springfield but my school is in session, my wife's is not...

GRRRRr

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Dec 10, 2008 12:55 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

When I Lived

In Little Rock they canceled school because it was going to snow. I was working swing shift at a bank, and I’d gone to a friend’s house for beers after work. When I started my car to drive home, the radio came on and I heard the announcement that schools were closed. Not a flake had fallen. We eventually got about 4 inches of snow and ice, and the state was paralyzed. No one had snow tires, so everyone ran out and bought chains. The snow stayed on the ground for about 2 weeks, and after the roads were clear some people were still using the chains on bare asphalt because they could see snow. I was working with adults who had never seen snow stick before; it doesn’t snow much down there.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Dec 10, 2008 1:24 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Main reason

For being a teacher is the snow days. But nothing worse then counting on a snow day and not getting it. Brutal.

In the Royals game of life, Neifi Perez is the rake.

by Matty486 on Dec 10, 2008 9:34 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Remember being a kid

and trying to will on the snowstorm, usually to no avail. Now that I’s all growed up, snow is just an annoyance to deal with.

I hereby resign from this post.

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Dec 10, 2008 9:51 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Of the "Final Four"...

…teams that are in on Furcal I think it really comes down to the Royals and the Dodgers. I don’t think the Blue Jays are that serious and he has already turned down an offer from the A’s. I wouldn’t be against signing Furcal, but I think I’d like us to go after O-Dog instead.

Mike Jacobs you're 2009 AL MVP

by eboston on Dec 10, 2008 9:53 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't see it

I just don’t see us picking up either unless and until we get rid of Guillen and his salary. I also don’t think that we can take a leap of faith and sign Furcal/Hudson first then try to get rid of Guillen, too much risk salary-wise. I can’t imagine that anyone would take Guillen, given that others like Dunn, Burrell, Ibanez are out there. Who is going to want a head case that is overpaid and declining?

I hereby resign from this post.

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Dec 10, 2008 10:14 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Olney was on Sportscenter...

talking about how cold the market for corner OF’s is this year. He was focusing on Man-Ram and the extreme unlikelihood that he will be getting anywhere near the $20-25M per sort of deal he was wanting (HA! Take THAT, Boras!), when there are guys like Dunn, Burrell, Abreu, etc. that will sign for FAR less. By less he was saying in the $10-12M per range. So, effectively, even if the Royals agreed to trade Guillen for next-to-nothing, they are still likely competing against the top FA corner OF’s that are still out there.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 10, 2008 11:36 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think he wants to get more money from the A's

And is using us as leverage. But that doesn’t mean we won’t get him. Billy Beane can be stingy with the money.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 10:52 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And the As offer is really, really smart

see that Dayton? You want to get more for your money. imagine that, no “bonus for coming to Oakland?”

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 11:12 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Are we the leader for Furcal?
2:07am: Richard Griffin suggests the Blue Jays are just being used by Kinzer to add negotiating power.

I wasn’t psyched about signing Furcal prior to the offseason but when the market is this depressed I might come around to it especially if they can limit the damage to 3 years.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Dec 10, 2008 10:20 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

As long as the Dodgers don't low ball him

I think he’ll go back to LA. If they do though I think we’d be next in line. IMO

Mike Jacobs you're 2009 AL MVP

by eboston on Dec 10, 2008 10:24 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

LA seems like they are in big payroll cut mode.

They are low balling ManRam trying to buy off Andruw Jones contract and CC was basically begging them to get in the mix and they wouldn’t bite. Plus just based on a few of their past contracts they aren’t into giving multiple year deals so I would expect a 3 year would be the max they would go for Furcal.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Dec 10, 2008 10:39 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If they get creative with the contract

like backloading it some then I really don’t think ’09 would be much of an issue

Mike Jacobs you're 2009 AL MVP

by eboston on Dec 10, 2008 10:33 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Furcal should go for that

/sarc

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 11:15 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I understand the decline curve and all,

but is a 4th year for a 31 year old shortstop that big of a concern? This is a very good player, and even with a normal decline, he is still likely to be productive at age 35.

(I would have some mild concern about the nature of his injury in 08; i.e., a back injury)

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Dec 10, 2008 10:25 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And have you seen...

…the guy’s arm?! Wow. Furcal is a quality player when healthy. – TL

[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.

by timlacy on Dec 10, 2008 10:32 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You may be right

I think I’m a little overskeptical because of how these types of deals have burned the Royals before.

by Bornin85 on Dec 10, 2008 10:39 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Move Aviles back to short

after the first 2 years and put Furcal at second when he declines.

by BrRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 11:06 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+2

And by that time, assuming he develops as he should, Giavotella should be ready for utility or backup duties (at least). So, the Royals wouldn’t have to worry about going out to sign another FA middle IF to a big contract if Furcal’s injury issues/decline become major factors.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 10, 2008 11:40 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

that might be pushing it for Johnny G

I think he’ll spend a full year or close to it in Wilmington in 2009, and if all goes well, he’ll move onto NWA for 2010. Assuming all of that happens, he’ll probably be given a chance to make the big league club in 2011, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him start the season in Omaha instead.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 10, 2008 11:47 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

at his age I think that is too long of a timetable.

He should move alot faster than that if he going to be a ML player.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Dec 10, 2008 11:51 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

How much faster can you realistically expect him to move?

The guy was in A ball this year, and he hit well (especially for a 2B), but not spectacularly well. Expecting him to be in the MLB in 2010 probably won’t happen.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 10, 2008 12:07 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I see two basic scenarios with Furcal...

(1) his back turns out to be a chronic issue and he turns into a Sweeney/Albatross contract in year one; or (2) he stays relatively healthy (as he has for most of this career) for the majority of the contract (especially if it’s only three years). If he does start to decline noticeably in the field, it likely won’t be until 2011, at which point Johnny G should be ready for prime time.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 10, 2008 12:36 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If Furcal declines enough the DMGM/the Royals realize he needs to move to second, he’ll probably be below average defesively there, too, and offensively as well. So that has to be taken into consideration when putting in an offer.

They shouldn’t go much higher than the As did.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 11:48 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That doesn't quite compute

Furcal could lose a couple of steps in the field and still be a serviceable offensive player. Based on his age, Furcal’s offensive production shouldn’t start substantially declining for another 3ish years, and he would still be an above-average bat at that position, even if his defense slips a little.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 10, 2008 11:50 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I guess I disagree

he’s not a slugger, he’s a speed-and-contact guy. Those skills peak at 29 at the very latest, combined, more around 27. Lok at the numbers. Check his replacement-level 2007.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 12:04 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You look at his career, 2007 was clearly the outlier

He was going on an absolute tear in 2008 before he got injured. Sure, he would have cooled down a lot, but I think his numbers would have rebounded regardless.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 10, 2008 12:09 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

outliers and injuries are part of a players performance history

And they are weighted accordingly

Bill James (sigh) projects: .341 wOBA (.286/.354/.409)
Marcels: .336 (.281/.351/.406)

That’s about average now, which is good for a SS. He’s average to above-average on defense (although UZR says he is now below average, I’ll leave it).

With 85% playing time (and do you really think he will player that much next season?) and a normal decline rate, the monkeys (who aren’t doctors, so they don’t understand injuries, they can just regress to the mean) say 1/$13.4, 2/$25.5, 3/$35.8, 4/$43.9 is market value. I certainly wouldn’t go beyond them, give their optimistic playing time predictions, that’s all. 3/36 would be my ceiling, and I’d feel leery about that.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 12:25 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

why would he go to the Royals if they didn't offer more money or more years?

Just because he likes hangin with GMDM? Come on get realistic

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Dec 10, 2008 11:52 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

4/45?

I think I would be ok with that deal if it would get it done

Mike Jacobs you're 2009 AL MVP

by eboston on Dec 10, 2008 11:57 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

to each his or her own

that’s even more than the Robo-GM market value, though

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 12:00 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He turned down 4/35-40 from the A's

so if we offer 4/40-45 and he takes it I think we’d be ok.

Mike Jacobs you're 2009 AL MVP

by eboston on Dec 10, 2008 12:06 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

agree to disagree

let someone else take the risk

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 12:07 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

It seems like an odd move to me to replace our miracle above average SS by paying someone else ten million dollars more.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Dec 11, 2008 6:06 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ahem

for four years, as well. Little bit much, IMO.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Dec 11, 2008 6:07 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Small clarification

By all accounts, Furcal wouldn’t replace Aviles. He’d essentially replace Callaspo, with Aviles changing positions.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 11, 2008 6:13 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sure,

but then there’s the question of whether or not Aviles would grade out to be as good a 2B as he was a SS last year. Really, my point is that with two middle infielders that I think will be pretty good this year, it’s not worth the relative cost of the upgrade to Furcal.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Dec 11, 2008 9:12 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Is there any decent defensive SS who isn't a better defensive 2B?

But I think your second point has merit. The question (and it is a big question mark) is how good Callaspo will be. I think his bat will be ok (with a nice OBP) but by all accounts he’s a poor defensive 2B. Furcal would be an offensive upgrade over Callaspo and the overall middle IF defense would be better. I think 2B isn’t an area of dire need, but it is an area of significant need.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 11, 2008 9:21 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I would much prefer a 3-year deal with Furcal to a 4-year deal

My ceiling for him would probably be a 3/33 deal, except maybe to tack on an option for the fourth year.

But, Furcal seems like he really wants a guaranteed fourth year, which especially if the contract is at all backloaded, will probably end up being a sunk cost to some degree. So if the fourth year became a sticking point in negotiations, I’d probably say thanks but no thanks.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 10, 2008 12:14 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

Typical me — “argue” with someone, then realize we basically agree. Seriously, that’s 3/33 max sounds right to me.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 12:26 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

3/33 is a pretty good deal.

He could have been a type A free agent (8 million value), and could be a type A or B when he leaves or we could trade for something on the back end possibly, additional value unknown. So it is really more like a 2/13 million with trade in value on the last year, or possibly as good as 3/17 million in value.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Dec 10, 2008 1:41 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Because Kansas City is just that awesome...

hey, at least we’ve got a LOT less traffic than LA

by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 10, 2008 12:00 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's not about what he should do

it’s about what the Royals should do

I think people are misled by his hot start to 2008 or something. He hasn’t been genuinely good for a full season since 2006 — and then he was just above average.

The offensive decline has already begun.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 12:01 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm calling shenanigans here

For his position, Furcal was well above average in 2006. Shortstops who hit for a .814 OPS don’t grow on trees. Characterizing his 2006 line as “just above average” isn’t wholly accurate. Plus…hell, at this point, I think the Royals would take a .814 OPS from their first baseman, much less their shortstop (I’m not saying Furcal will OPS .810+ in 2009, but saying his decline began in 2006 is not at all substantiated by the numbers).

by DarthYoshi on Dec 10, 2008 12:19 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm saying the decline is obvious after that

even without the injury

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 12:27 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

While he may be in a decline, I think it's far from obvious

2007 really looks like a blip if you assume his 2008 numbers are even remotely skill based. I can only assume 2007 performance is injury related because his slugging took a significant hit compared to other years.

His OBP remained at .333 in his worst year since becoming established and his career OBP is around .350. I would say if his skills were declining, OBP would have seen a more significant decline. I think SLG would be more impacted by injury than OBP and the numbers support this – albeit in a very simple analysis.

by jsolo on Dec 10, 2008 12:42 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

probably not getting much more precise

I don’t think I’m actually disagreeing with you guys. I do think his offense is good — for a SS. The projections take stuff into account. I’ll have to re-run his ZiPs projection through the wOBA-nator later today.

2006, 2007, and 2008 all count. So does aging. So does his big home park. So does inferior NL pitching.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 12:45 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I would just add that

organizational need should play a factor, but you have to be careful, otherwise you end up paying Jose Guillen 3/36 because “hell, he can’t play defense anymore, and last year he was pretty lucky, and the year before he was hurt, and he’s clearly in decline, but he 60% likely to be better than Emil Brown, so what the hell.”

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 12:29 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

PS

he ended up not being as good as Emil Brown

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 12:29 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Who is as good as Emil Brown?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 12:30 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If you add Teahen and Guillen's 2008 WARs together

they are about equal to Emil’s. At least using bUZR and baseball-reference linear weights.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 12:35 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Point is

No one is as good as Emil Brown.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 12:36 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

At...

Reporters’ Eyes Target Shooting?

by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 10, 2008 12:39 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Justin Huber! Now!

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Dec 10, 2008 12:36 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

A couple of things

Yeah, I think pretty much everyone recognizes the Guillen signing was a mistake, otherwise, Moore wouldn’t be actively trying to trade him.

You said that in reference to 2006 that, “even then, he (Furcal) was just above average.” I was just saying that even just glancing at the numbers would tell you that isn’t at all accurate. I like Furcal, but probably not as much as you think I do. :)

by DarthYoshi on Dec 10, 2008 12:37 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Furcal's 2006

I just changed my spreadsheet, actually, I couldn’t remember. My old one had his 2006 as being very good on both side of the ball. My new one had the same offense, but bad defense. So I think he was good (although that season was almost as much of an “outlier” as 2007’s collapse, although I’m not much for "outliers"). So we aren’t that far apart.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 12:41 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Can someone tell me why MLBTV isn't starting til January?

Wouldn’t this have been the perfect timing for that? Then MLB could’ve done what the NFL does and give all the breaking news first to MLBTv.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Dec 10, 2008 10:52 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

why would

Bdud Selig start getting things right at this point?

by GoBabies!! on Dec 10, 2008 10:56 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Agreed

That was a curious decision

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 10:57 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Forgive me if this was posted last night

But here is Dick Kaegel’s report

. Nothing much really, DM is playing it very close to the vest.

-DM will add a reliever either this week, or early next week – he did not deny they are talking to Kyle Farnsworth, Brandon Lyon, Russ Springer and Juan Cruz.
-Trey talked about the pen and mentioned Peralta, Yabuta and Duckworth. Yuck. I’m pretty sure though that he’s just putting a happy face on in case the Royals fail to sign a reliever
-DM doesn’t know if they’ll take anyone in the Rule 5
-DM doesn’t anticipate non-tendering anyone (I have to think Gobble and Gathright and possibly Peralta are all prime candidates)
-DM denies the Greinke for Franceour talk
-DM says the trade front is “unpredictable”

Again, he’s playing it pretty close to the vest, not showing his cards at all.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 10:56 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I would LOVE

 Juan Cruz, but seeing as he is an “A” FA, I don’t want him. :(

by GoBabies!! on Dec 10, 2008 10:57 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yeah, Cruz would be nice...

but giving up a first or second round pick just so that we can get the reliever we want for a year or two? Pass.

The only other reliever on that list worth getting at all excited about is Lyon, but I don’t think we’re going to land him.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 10, 2008 11:10 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cruz would cost a first.

Lyon would cost a second.

I think

by GoBabies!! on Dec 10, 2008 11:11 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm 95% sure Lyon is a type B free agent

So his old team would get a draft pick, but it would not be at our expense.

Springer and Cruz are both type A free agents. So I’m sort of hoping we don’t sign either of them.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 10, 2008 11:15 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

my apologies

I was under the impression that type b’s still got compensation from the team that signs him..

by GoBabies!! on Dec 10, 2008 11:42 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It would cost us our second round pick.

Our first round pick is protected.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Dec 10, 2008 1:33 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'd be fine with giving Peralta another shot

Royals, NBA, Golden Hurricane, Hawkeyes, Chiefs, and KU basketball, in that order.

by Rowyal on Dec 10, 2008 11:46 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Great JoPo Column

His picture just keeps getting funnier:


Preparing for an audition for the new Scorcese film about the Polish Mob

Nice reliable mockery of the way the “Greinke-for-Francoeur” rumor gets started. Still, Ihave to say this quote frustrates me — not in a “OMG DMGM SUX” way, more in a “well, I guess he’s probably just another GM, all things considered” way:

The Royals and Dayton Moore do like Jeff Francoeur. "The guy’s one of the greatest competitors I’ve ever been around," Moore says, and he has repeated similar compliments enough times, to enough people, that everyone around the game knows Moore would like to have Francoeur.

Don’t get me wrong — I think makeup is important. Everyone does. Read the beginning of Moneyball, in the draft room even the stats guys for the As take makeup seriously. But we aren’t talking about a kid working his way through the minors. We’re talking about a guy who has been in the majors for several years, never posted a good OBP, doesn’t seem to be improving, was still the focus of Braves marketing, and even his usually good defense has fallen off the table. I’m not sure how much “competitiveness” can make up for sheer suckitude at this point.

Like I said, no big deal. If Moore is just expressing affection for a kid he’s known for a long time, then that makes Moore likeable. No biggie. If he really thinks Francoeur has signfiicant value or upside at t his point, that’s another issue.

/irrelevant rant

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 11:10 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't think

you can ever unoquivically (sp) eliminate someone from discusssions of future productivity.

Case in point…if you would have told me that Rocco freaking Baldelli would ever contribute to the Rays again, I would have said you were crazy. And he was coming off of a major injury.

Farancouer has just sucked. No real injury trouble, he’s just lost his mojo.

Obviously Greinke is a retarded discussion, but if he can be gotten with little given up, he’s a worthy player to take a cheap flyer on.

by GoBabies!! on Dec 10, 2008 11:15 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

oh, I agree

but really cheap. I wouldn’t even give Teahen for him at this point.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 11:17 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And despite Baldelli's problems with injuries

when he was healthy, he was way better than Francoeur was, imo

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 11:17 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

jinx!

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 11:19 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

hard to say

Rocco only really had 1 good year. Basically, you are saying Angel Berroa is better than Francoeur also…

by GoBabies!! on Dec 10, 2008 11:24 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh no, you're not getting another boring spreadsheet out of me...

WPA/LI (quasi-linear weight wins above average) per year:

Frenchy:

2005: 0.63
2006: -0.07
2007: -0.51
2008: -2.63

total: -2.58

Rocco:

2003: -0.01
2004: -0.80
2006: 0.76
2007: -0.76
2008: 0.12

total: -0.69

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 11:30 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Steve Phillips on 810 right now

an anxious nation holds it’s collective breath to see what nuggets of wisdom are dropped into the heartland…

I hereby resign from this post.

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Dec 10, 2008 11:36 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

SI is confirming the terms of the Sabathia contract...

Tooly is saying it is 7 years, $160M, which would make Sabathia the highest paid pitcher ever. The Yankees have close to $90M in bloated contracts coming off the books this year, but still…some things never change.

And the Yankees still aren’t done—they are in talks with Lowe and Burnett as well.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 10, 2008 11:43 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I know CC's been durable

but man, the Brewers rode that arm really, really hard last year.

by Top Ramen on Dec 10, 2008 11:49 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Big overweight body already+

7 years + Overpitched already = Yankees Overpaid as usual

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Dec 10, 2008 11:54 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cf. the time they went for Randy Johnson over Carlos Beltran

C. C. is better than Johnson was at that point, but if they chose Sabathia over Teixeira..

Lesson: if people think overpaying for Sabathia is a bad idea for the Yankees, why would overpaying for Rafael Furcal be a good idea of the Royals?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 12:06 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Because he is a good player that the royals have no depth in, either...

at the MLB or minor league level, and the contract is roughly 25% the size of Sabaitha’s. The Royals could really use a player like Furcal.

by djk royal on Dec 10, 2008 12:10 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

agreed. But they shouldn't be overpaying for anyone, at least not without making their roster more efficient

I’m not saying Furcal isn’t good. He is good. Not great, but good. He’s a better investment that Burrell would be, and 4/40 for Furcal would be much, much smarter than 3/36 for Guillen or even 5/90 for Toriiiiii.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 12:14 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree you shouldn't overpay...

unless you’re one player away from contention or the Yankees. I tend to think Moore legitimately believes the Royals could contend in 2009 with Furcal. I’m not saying I agree I just think his trades this off-season seem designed to maximize the 2009 win total.

by djk royal on Dec 10, 2008 2:23 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The Yankees

are the product of what happens when the fans run the team. The only reason they have to sign him for that price is to ward off the 100,000 ‘why the bleep didnt we get Santana or Sabathia’ comments and fan backlash

by GoBabies!! on Dec 10, 2008 11:59 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yankees Spending Spree has begun

Looking at adding a 5th year for AJ Burnett
Hank Steinbrenner wants ManRam

Hank is gonna end up being just like his father.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Dec 10, 2008 12:26 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Really disappointed CC went to the Yanks

I was hoping FAs would pass them over and I was looking forward to seeing CC hit in the NL. Plus I was holding out hope the Brew Crew would land him.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 12:36 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

as everyone has probably already noted

it would be completely appropriate for CC to end up in Milwaukee

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 12:37 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Terrible Deal for the Yankees

Player controlled opt out clause after 3 years and a no trade clause.

The Yanks continue to be the FA whipping boy must suck to be the rich kid.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Dec 10, 2008 2:44 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

that opt out might actually help them

but I have a hard time seeing this as a smart deal for them

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 3:06 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

have we traded for Pete Orr yet?

by royalsreview on Dec 10, 2008 12:27 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Season ticket payments are due today.

I don’t know if that impacts what the Royals do, I’m just sayin.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 12:30 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'll split em with you

If you ever move back to KC

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 12:33 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

that would be awesome

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 12:34 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

well, i'll always have the nationals

1) a horrible team
2) in a division and league I have no interest in
3) in a stadium that takes me at least 45 minutes to get to each way

by royalsreview on Dec 10, 2008 12:37 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You get to see Willie Harris 81 times a year

That is something.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 12:41 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Willie Harris had a monster year in the field

Would have been the second best OF on the Royals this past year, easy.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 12:42 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Slick Willie, 2008

+17 RAR hitting, -3 positional adjustment, +19 defense = +33 RAR = 3 WAR.

Would have been the third best positional player on the Royals.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 12:55 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

ha

I think Gammons believed what he wrote, but I also think that while teams should be figuring out defense, that it’s really another mask for collusion, just like Selig is trying to do with the economic climate.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 1:12 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I feel your pain

though I’m only here through 2010.

by BrRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 3:11 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

May I ask?

Are you at Catholic U? Georgetown? Other?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 3:12 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Catholic U

I should be studying for my Greek final right now.

by BrRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 3:13 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

meh, what's a couple of hours

Biblical Greek has been around for thousands of years, it’s not going to change this afternoon.

After all, the Royals might ink Kyle Farnsworth!

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 3:15 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Can't wait to get into brawls next year

with Olivo and Farnsworth on our side. It could get ugly.

by BrRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 3:16 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

that should be worth an extra $1M for Farns alone

didn’t Mark Teahen tell Mellinger that Farns was the guy he’d most avoid in a fight? And then Mellinger told Farns?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 3:17 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ive had season ticks for the last 5 years

WOOOOOO.. the weekend package though.. its a preety good deal.. go opening day then every friday, sat, sunday

Werd.

by focs on Dec 10, 2008 12:44 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

See you there

I’ll be the one in the “Jason Smith” jersey

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 12:50 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Another side note worth mentioning

I think the Ramon Hernandez trade helps us a fair amount in establishing John Buck’s trade value. The last couple years, Hernandez’s offensive output has been a small notch higher than Buck’s (Hernandez posted OPS+’s of 88 and 86, Buck has OPS+’s of 90 and 79), but Hernandez is overweight and physically declining while Buck has had an impeccable bill of health for his entire MLB career, plus Hernandez’s defense has gone completely to shit. So, I think Buck is probably the more valuable catcher…which is good, since the Reds basically got Hernandez for spare parts (32-year-old utility man Ryan Freel plus a couple of unremarkable minor-league hitters). I still think, at the very least, Buck is worth a decent, B-level prospect, and I’d much rather Moore acquire one decent player for Buck than three mediocre benchwarmers.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 10, 2008 12:30 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hope he tries to get pitching

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 12:33 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I was thinking

The Laird deal set the table. Buck is slightly worse than Laird offensively, and probably quite a bit worse defensively, but the Rangers actually got a decent young pitcher for him and a really young minor leaguer…maybe we could get two okayish prospects for Buck.

Houston seems like a good fit. And don’t underestimate Boston and the Baird connection.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 12:35 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Can't wait for Buck to hit 20 homers for the Red Sox

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 12:36 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

if that happens...

I might cry. In case you haven’t noticed by the tone of my post on the Hernandez trade, I have mostly moved to the “acceptance” stage of grieving after hearing that Hillman and Moore were dumb enough to name Olivo the #1 catcher. If Buck hits 20 dingers for the BoSox in 2009, I might regress to, I dunno, the denial phase.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 10, 2008 12:44 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

I think you, me, and NHZ are the only members left in the John Buck fan club, unfortunately.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 12:46 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I am a fan

Because he keeps hitting 20 bombs a year in my DMB league and I keep thinking real John Buck will live up to virtual John Buck.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 12:51 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

what's DMB?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 12:58 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes

A nice little simulation game I play to pass the time while watching the baby.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 1:27 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think loyal2 likes him, as well

all are welcome, membership discount is al an all-time low…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 12:56 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And with your membership discount,

you can play Mormon baseball player bingo every Monday night as a part of Family Home Evening.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 10, 2008 1:05 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We should stop talking about him

Now I’m getting mad again. Over John Freaking Buck.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 1:08 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I like Buck

I just don’t think he’s likely to get much better. I wouldn’t have re-signed Olivo, but now that he’s here, along with Pena and House, somebody should be traded. If Buck can get the Royals the best haul in trade, do it.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 1:54 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

when I see Buck, I see Beltran

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Dec 10, 2008 3:27 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Who Do You

See when you see Beltran?

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Dec 11, 2008 1:08 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

see, I didn't think the Laird deal did quite as much for us

because Laird is pretty clearly the more valuable catcher. Hernandez and Buck are very different catchers, but I think their trade value is probably a little more equal, weighted towards Buck however.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 10, 2008 12:40 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The market for Buck should have more clarity

with Hernandez, Ross, and Laird finding homes. The teams have still need catching will have to come to the teams like KC who have some depth. Red Sox will need a competent compliment to go with Tek when he resigns. Astros and Marlins seems to have needs too.

by daveyork on Dec 10, 2008 12:52 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

oh, and as far as a potential Boston trade goes...

What do you think about Buck for Yamaico Navarro?

Unfortunately, not a lot of players in the Astros farm system excite me that much. But maybe Moore could fleece Wade somehow.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 10, 2008 12:53 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't know who Yamaico Navarro is

but it’s a great name

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 12:56 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

he's a SS prospect who ended the year in high A ball

Good all around hitter, fairly toolsy. I think he’s 20 years old. Sickels has him at a B-.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 10, 2008 1:00 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You had me

At “toolsy”

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 1:27 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Is it possible

That Teahen and Buck are traded in the same offseason. All vestiges of the Beltran trade gone forever…

by labbadabba on Dec 10, 2008 2:07 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Where art thou Mike Wood?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 2:15 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think she is out hunting moose and caribou

stocking up for winter

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Dec 10, 2008 12:39 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Are the Royals making a run at signing her?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 12:41 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

why not, would

I’d bet $100 Dayton voted for her

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 12:42 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

She clearly has a knack for PR...

if they did sign her, I suppose we could expect regular press conferences from Moore and Hillmand with similar backdrops.

I suppose turkey slaughtering might distract from some of Hillman’s more questionable decisions.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 10, 2008 12:44 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

She's spying on Russia

from her front lawn.

Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!

by cmkeller on Dec 10, 2008 2:06 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

She's Very Toolsy

For a Valley Trash chick.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Dec 10, 2008 2:24 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

that's what he said

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Dec 10, 2008 3:15 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

tick tock tick tock

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Dec 10, 2008 1:19 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

DM is taking David Glass' money

To the roulette table in the hopes he can double his money and afford Adam Dunn.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 1:28 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

810 is reporting

A Farnsworth deal is imminent

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 1:58 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I have a bad feeling that the number isn't going to be as low as most of us want it to be

If it is $2M or more than one year, I’m going to throw up in my mouth a little.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 1:59 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Agreed

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 2:01 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

well, he'll likely be gone by mid-season

although paying $2 for a c-level prospect seems pointless

i’d rather just throw that into the greinke fund

by royalsreview on Dec 10, 2008 2:12 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I will defer to DM on relievers

Farnsy doesn’t make a lick of sense to me, but DM has earned the benefit of the doubt on bullpen construction.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 2:14 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

True

I just hope this isn’t a tools-only, completely ignoring results evaluation process.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 2:18 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm so tired

Of your constant negativity towards everything Dayton does!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 2:26 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's my new obsession

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 2:31 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

aren't you a lawyer?

They HAVE to be negative. It’s how they are programmed to think in law school… my sister went to Wash Law… I know.

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Dec 10, 2008 4:10 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I prefer to think of it as critical thinking

And critical can be negative. :)

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 4:11 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He's been good

but I wouldn’t go that far, unless we’re willing to give people a pass on mocking every single position player move he makes.

He’s been good with the bullpen — Riske, Ramirez, also Tejeda and Ho-Ram. Dotel to a lesser extent.

On the other hand, I’m not sure Greinke in the bullpen for most of last year makes him a wizard. Nunez wasn’t his guy. The truth is that Mahay was a good sign, but ended up being barely above replacement level (so he was way overpaid).

I’m not saying he sucks — on the contrary, I have faith in it. But Farns projects as below replacement level. IF McClure makes him a $1M player, then fine… if he’s only paid $1M max.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 2:29 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

unless we’re willing to give people a pass on mocking every single position player move he makes.

Most do. Giving Moore the benefit of the doubt on relievers would only be fair.

On the other hand, I’m not sure Greinke in the bullpen for most of last year makes him a wizard.

I also don’t think the General Manager deserves the credit or blame for that. Generally GM’s don’t dictate the roles players play. And I really don’t think DM and Buddy had that kind of relationship. In short, I’m confident that was Buddy’s call. Also, Greinke said that it helped him a lot, because in that role (in part with Riske’s guidance) he learned how to rely on his fastball, maximize velocity and not rely on pinpoint control, and use his FB as an out pitch.

Nunez wasn’t his guy.

This is a criticism of Moore?

IF McClure makes him a $1M player, then fine… if he’s only paid $1M max.

McClure might do nothing for him. McClure, and neutral luck could easily make him a $2M pitcher (theoretically). It’s not like a $2M reliever is great. If that is where the bar is set, it isn’t set very high.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 2:36 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm not

Nunez wasn’t a criticism of Moore — I’m just saying that it’s not like he picked him up off the scrap heap.

I’m simply point out that if we call “objectively” analyze for objective analysis rather than dismissal of position player moves (which is the right thing when it comes to analysis, if not entertainment pieces), then we have objectively analyze pitchers, as well, rather than just giving the benefit of the doubt.

Ross Gload sucks. CoCo Crisp is good.

Joakim Soria is good, Kyle Farnsworth sucks.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 2:42 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Nunez wasn’t a criticism of Moore — I’m just saying that it’s not like he picked him up off the scrap heap.

True, but he did call him up. And going into the 2007 season, I don’t think anyone was talking about Nunez as a guy who might help the bullpen. But I do think Moore gets very little credit for Nunez.

I’m simply point out…rather than just giving the benefit of the doubt.

Fair enough. First, I think it is fair and intelligent to add the fact that Moore likes the player to the evaluation of a reliever he acquires. His track record counts for something. It doesn’t mean that every pitcher he acquires is going to be good. But his evaluation has proven correct more times than not, so I think that should tell us something positive about any pitcher he acquires. It’s just one factor to consider. Second, even statgeeks like us recognize that tools and that which is not counted are important elements of evaluation, along with stats. Stageeks like us are good at evaluating players with stats. Moore and his people are good at evaluating pitchers by looking at tools. So I don’t think our statistical analysis is the beginning and end of pitcher evaluation.

Ross Gload sucks. CoCo Crisp is good.
Joakim Soria is good, Kyle Farnsworth sucks.

“Farnsworth sucks.” That is what the stats say. The stats also very clearly showed after the 2006 season that Gil Meche was no better than a #4 starter. The numbers were pretty unambiguous. And yet Moore and is people recognized that he was actually better than that. They were right. This is just to show that tools count, and pitching coaches can count too. It also shows that Moore and his people are good at finding and acquiring pitching talent, beyond just what the stats say. And they aren’t good at that for position players.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 2:54 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

gone by mid-season

just like Mahay

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 2:25 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Such cynicism

And cynicism regarding Moore and relievers? That takes some work.

First, if Mahay isn’t traded at the deadline, he will likely become a type 5 FA, and a sandwich pick. Riske became a sandwich pick. Could Farnsy become a Type B? Definitely. Maybe not, but it is not unrealistic.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 2:38 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sorry, Mr. Rove

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 2:42 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Huh?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 2:55 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

After listening to Yankees fans

whine and moan about Farnsworth…ugh.

by labbadabba on Dec 10, 2008 2:06 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yankees fans also moan about A-Rod

I would hate to add that guy.

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Dec 10, 2008 2:12 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think there was a point there

The point being that how Yankees fans react to a player is meaningless…at best. Who would have thought that signing Farnsworth would push your snark button.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 2:39 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

...or your defensiveness lever

is he even signed yet?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 2:43 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Nope

Besides, maybe Moore pulls a stealthy ninja move and signs Springer when we were all thinking it would be Farns.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 10, 2008 2:46 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Zing!

Someone is in a mood.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 2:56 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Our only hopes for Farnsworth being significantly better as a Royal

1. He had some back batted ball and HR/FB luck in 2008, so his numbers should regress (positively) to a better mean.
2. Maybe McClure can help him spot his fastball better and perhaps not rely on his slider too much.

I still don’t like him, but if Dayton Moore does, then that at last says something positive about him.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 2:12 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

In Farnsworth's defense

I will say that a Farns-Olivo battery would make me think twice about ever charging the mound.

But if he is signed to anything more than a 1 year/2M deal (maybe with a club option for a second year), then I might cry even if Buck doesn’t hit 20 bombers at Fenway next year.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 10, 2008 2:43 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't know

that performance Olivo showed off against the Sox was that scary

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Dec 10, 2008 2:47 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

was=wasn't

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Dec 10, 2008 2:52 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

On the positive side

It is almost certainly going to be less costly and he will be brought in for a less important role.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 2:56 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

True

I don’t have very high hopes for Farnsworth, but at least he hopefully won’t be getting the 3M guaranteed that Tomko did. Plus, he’s had a decent track record lately, while Tomko was a little more of a reclamation project.

by Top Ramen on Dec 10, 2008 3:02 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree

but like what other people have said, I tend to trust Moore’s faith in pitchers. Moore’s only two significant screw-ups as far as signing pitchers have been Yabuta and Tomko, and both were signed to relatively low-cost, low-risk contracts. Compare that to signing Meche and Mahay, finding Soria in the Rule 5 draft, and acquiring RamRam, HoRam, and Tejeda for next to nothing…Moore’s successes far outnumber his failures in finding pitching, so, I’m not too concerned.

If this had been Allard Baird drooling over Farns, though, I’d probably be singing a different tune.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 10, 2008 2:57 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Allard would be bringing in Farnsworth to be the veteran closer

Then, due to being the only halfway decent reliever on staff, his arm would fall off after the all-star break.

by Top Ramen on Dec 10, 2008 3:03 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Maybe it's just my "mood" getting in the way of objectivity

But even ignoring luck and using ERA above replacement * his 1.09 leverage, Mahay still didn’t quite “earn” his salary, being worth just under $3.6M. If you use FIP, he was worth just over $1M. If you use tRA, he was below replacement level…

I do think Moore has been good with pitchers, and the Mahay signing at the time wasn’t awful or anytyhing. I just disagree that Mahay should go on the list of “successes.”

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 3:05 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

you need to get over “replacement level” for 1/2 the season Mahay was PERFORMING on an all star level. His injury shortened his season and his productivity. The reason this team performed above their pythag was because of the bullpen and Mahay was a Huge part of that for half the season. If he returns to close to that level it doesn’t matter what your BS numbers tell you the actuality of it is he will have earned every cent of his contract.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Dec 10, 2008 3:15 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I wish advanced metrics were broken down by month

I just don’t think he was truly outstanding before his injury. He was good or pretty good before the injury, not great.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 3:18 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That would be a really nice way to measure the impact of injuries

And while injuries are part of a player’s performance, I do agree that his value is higher than the full-season-impacted-by-injury numbers tend to show. His 1st half value may be overstated by his then stellar ERA, but he clearly wasn’t the same pitcher when he returned from injury.

by jsolo on Dec 10, 2008 3:26 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

right, he could very well be better next year

I wasn’t even talking about projection — I was evaluating Mahay’s overall performance this year. Injry effected or not, his overall line is not impressive, and not worth $4M, even when I used the most generous estimations.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 3:27 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Your saberstats are for projections

the facts are he was a lefty reliever who pitched 56+ innings with a 1.75 ERA who pitched complete innings against both lefties and righties. Those are All Star type numbers for any reliever the only difference was he didn’t pitch the ninth inning.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Dec 10, 2008 3:44 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

sorry, but his whole year counts

he had a 3.48 ERA

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 3:45 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And also other stats are more telling than his ERA

And they are less pretty.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 3:46 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The reality of the situation is his ERA

yes if you want to talk about Projections then bring up the other stats. The reality is how he performed for the team and he was performing at all star levels until his injury. His plantar fasciitis injury is what got him to the 3.48 ERA d_f just ask Tim Duncan’s plummeting average.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Dec 10, 2008 3:51 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Only ERA = "reality"?

That’s bizarre. FIP describes reality. xFIP describes reality. tRA describes reality. And each of those three do a better of describing reality in a meaningful and reliable way.

All season long, he put too many runners on base, and usually wiggled his way out of trouble. He danced with the devil and got away with it. That’s not a description of an excellent, dominant pitcher (at any point of the season).

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 3:55 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Disagree

It doesn’t matter if he put runners on base that didn’t score. The fact remains that those runners didn’t score and he found a way to wiggle out of those situations. If you want to make that your argument for why he won’t succeed next year then do that but that does’t make for a good argument for ’08.

d_f injury argument would be the only one that really held water for saying he didn’t perform up to his 4 mil pay. I disagree to that just based on the deal Affeldt got in a depressed market. Affeldt stats for the season were very similar to Mahays and he got the same deal in a heavily depressed market. If ’09s market was normal Jeremy probably gets more money and/or years.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Dec 10, 2008 4:07 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It doesn’t matter if he put runners on base that didn’t score. The fact remains that those runners didn’t score and he found a way to wiggle out of those situations

While I think ERA captures something of value, good performance for a pitcher is about reliably getting outs and not putting runners on base. THAT is the description and measure of success. Not your relative luck with keeping runners on base from scoring.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 4:10 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Disagree

The goal of any pitcher is not to keep runners off base, but to prevent runs. When looking at past performance, I couldn’t care less how many walks and hits he gave up — only how many of those turned into runs. If he prevented runs, no matter how ugly it might have been, that’s success.

When trying to predict future performance, it matters how those outs were recorded. So if you’re trying to predict how much a pitcher will be worth or how successful he’ll be in the future, absolutely, take other factors into account.

Royals, NBA, Golden Hurricane, Hawkeyes, Chiefs, and KU basketball, in that order.

by Rowyal on Dec 10, 2008 5:15 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The goal of any pitcher is not to keep runners off base, but to prevent runs. When looking at past performance, I couldn’t care less how many walks and hits he gave up — only how many of those turned into runs. If he prevented runs, no matter how ugly it might have been, that’s success.

What is most meaningful about past performance is those outs recorded and runners allowed on base. The number of runners who scored from those outs includes a lot of luck based on when and how the runners were bunched. So looking at the most meaningful and reliable measures means looking at many other things before ERA, and weighting ERA pretty low.

If a pitcher was “pitching ugly” but didn’t allow runs, then he didn’t pitch well. And I want to use metrics that show me how well a pitcher was truly pitching.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 5:18 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think we might be arguing about different things, kcscoliny (you need to pick a handle that is easier for me type!)

In my original cmment, I’m just valuing his performance this past year vs. his contract, not his value going forward.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 4:10 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

HOORAY!

This Winter Meetings was totally worth it!

Now if only we could re-acquire Wes Bankston.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 3:24 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I can't help but imagine that

when reacquiring a player that was claimed from you, a silly British slap fight would ensue.

by Bornin85 on Dec 10, 2008 3:24 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Lord Palmerston!

Pitt the Elder!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 10, 2008 3:28 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

maybe a fish slapping contest ala Monty Python

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Dec 10, 2008 4:20 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Now just

1 open spot on the 40 man roster……we will definitely take someon in the Rule 5 i would think

by powder blues on Dec 10, 2008 3:27 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So the Royals had 2 open spots on the 40-man before this waiver claim?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 3:31 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

They gained one

when the Braves took Cuevas back

by BrRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 3:32 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ok, so I guess Cuevas and Fulchino opened two spots, and re-acquiring Cuevas brings us back down to 39.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 3:35 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

They better not f- w Dayton, just ask the Mariners

he took their RF, Gil, Ho-Ram, he made their stats consultant two-time them… the Braves don’t want any part of this war.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 3:46 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Any body with a keener sense of "market timing" than me?

Wouldn’t it make sense for the Royals to wait until after the Rule 5 draft to see if what they can get and then evaluate where their bullpen stands before signing a FA?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 3:29 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think the Rule 5 spot is for the 7th bullpen spot and Moore knows that he wants an upgrade from the 6th bullpen spot, regardless of what they get in the Rule 5.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 3:31 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

WRONG

if the Rule 5 pick isn’t another Soria, then the offseason was a bust

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 3:37 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ok, I'll grant you that

VEAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 3:38 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Veal Jersey

With a side of onion rings.

by jsolo on Dec 10, 2008 3:39 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And extra gravy

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 3:40 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs