Dan Szymborski: Transaction Oracle for the Pitcher Signings

Dig those ZiPS projections! I can get on board with that. Love the historical comps, too.

Also, nice Mike Jacobs reference for CubsFreak, wherever he/she is.

over 3 years ago Matt Klaassen 22 comments 1 recs |

Comments

jeezuz

I understand if the Farns deal was not so good, but the Horacio deal? It’s 2 f’ing million for a LHP with a career ERA of 4.5. He’s not THAT bad. Gotten a bum rap because of the bad trade the Mariners made to get him.

In fact, if he can keep limiting the walks and inducing ground balls…I really so no reason why he can’t be a decent pitcher. Especially if we end up with Furcal and Aviles up the middle.

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Dec 12, 2008 12:49 AM EST reply actions

Is there a reason that he didn't include the ZiPS projections?

Just because it was much funnier to ridicule the Royals than to actually provide numbers. Somebody needs to tell Dan that all he does well is numbers, not comedy. He’s good with the numbers. Give me the ZiPS projections, Dan and take your comedy routine to the Yuck-Yuck Shack on Route 9. In short, be a good statmonkey and give with the numbers, schmuck.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 12, 2008 2:12 AM EST reply actions

fair enough

I don’t know the reasons why. Your point is valid (although he went carefully through both the Jacobs and Crisp trades, neither of which he liked, but he didn’t ridicule). It might be that ZiPS isn’t complete yet, he’s overloaded with all the WM transaction action, and this was just easier.

I have to say that I laughed to myself. I loved the DMB thing that had Cantu pitching and Jacobs at short.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Dec 12, 2008 2:35 PM EST up reply actions

I guess I prefer ridiculing Dayton Moore much more than to have outsiders ridicule him. And I have always thought that statgeek haves like BP, THT, BTF and Baseball Analysts should be about serious stuff, not half assed attempts at humor. That’s just my preference. I want the stats, the analysis and the theory; I don’t want the lame attempts at comedy. Those who write at these sites do the first three well and the fourth exceedingly poorly. Dan may think he’s trying out for The Daily Show’s sports report, but he isn’t. He’s a one trick monkey. Dance monkey!

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 12, 2008 2:59 PM EST up reply actions

It's funny because it's true

by Gopherballs on Dec 12, 2008 2:01 PM EST reply actions

I thought it was hilarious

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 12, 2008 3:10 PM EST reply actions

I’ve updated the entry with the projections. Sorry about the delay, but there were a lot of parasites in my fur this morning.

by Szymborski on Dec 12, 2008 5:47 PM EST reply actions

Thanks

I appreciate the numbers. I haven’t gone to look at them yet, but I know they’ll be bad.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Dec 12, 2008 6:08 PM EST up reply actions

Dan, if you read this

I know your projections are based, of course, on prior performance. Therefore, in the case of H. Ramirez, those pre-2008 stats were exclusively as a starter. Given that he performed so much better as reliever in 2008 than his prior performance, and the fact that pitcher generally perform better as relievers than as starters, should we expect that he’ll do better in 2009 than his ZiPS projection?

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Dec 12, 2008 6:12 PM EST up reply actions

You made btf (sort of!)

now YOU the man, NY

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Dec 12, 2008 6:30 PM EST up reply actions

If only I could have signed that gem

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Dec 12, 2008 7:15 PM EST up reply actions

lol

(I can’t believe I’ve become a “lol” guy)

you the man. Somehow, I suspect the numbers will be take all the humor out of the situation for us, though.

on a side note, any chance you’ll join the “cool kids” and start including wOBA/lgwOBA in your projections?

Just a suggestion (that I’m sure you’ve received many times). More power to you — awesome projection system.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Dec 12, 2008 6:29 PM EST up reply actions

Ooppss...

one more thing: any way you can give us a league (and/or MLB-wide) ERA (unadjusted, and for everyone) yet?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Dec 12, 2008 6:40 PM EST up reply actions

Crunched the numbers

It’s tough to get an exact read without a league ERA/RA or whatever. marcels has 4.3, but that’s pretty low, and using the projection from another system is problematic. I thought about going with 4.4 or last year’s 4.44, but settled on 4.5 for now. Now a huge difference, of course. There is one seeming huge one, but really…

Also tough because Ho-Ram’s previous performance is mostly a a starter. So anyway, as you might recall from earlier, Marcels

has Farns as below replacement level with both FIP and ERA.
Ramriez is slightly above replacement (think #5 starter) as a starter, around it as a reliever
Waechter slightly better than Ho-Ram

Now, the playing time predictions are variable in many ways, but I think they are generally in the reliever range. In any case, being shorted a few innings short when you just above replacement level doesn’t increase your value, even with the leverage added, so (all assume relief replacement level lgERA*1.07. All “wpLI” numbers assume generic “setup man” pLI of 1.4)):

Waechter: 64 IP. -0.75 ERA-RAR, 0.71 FIP-RAR. With pLI: -1.05 ERAR, 0.99 FRAR

HoRam: 49 IP, 0.19 ERAR, 2.13 FRAR. w/pLI: 0.27 ERAR, 2.98 FRAR

Professor: 62 IP, 0.17 ERAR, 0.57 FRAR. w/pLI: 0.24 ERAR, 0.80 FRAR

More later if you want it

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Dec 12, 2008 7:14 PM EST reply actions

New numbers, not that much different, + Market value

Dan S. (the ZiPSMaster) gives us his AL ERA of 4.44. The new numbers aren’t that much different. I’ll use the setup leverage of 1.4 to detrmine the market value. I will also assume a flat “replacement contract” for the one year of any player. Exactly replacement level = $400,000 contract. Anything below will be deducted. I will use the most generous (to the player) of ERAR*1.4 or FRAR* 1.4, or just flat leverage (assuming that if they are below replacement they will be used in lower level situations). That value will be in bold. I will also be a bit generous by going 10 runs = 1 win rather than 10.5. 1 WAR’s value is $4.84M, so a 1 WAR player would be paid $4.84 + $400,000 replacement salary. Usual qualifications about Ho-Ram’s numbers apply.

Waechter: -1.20 ERAR, 0.25 FRAR, -1.68 ERARpLI, 0.35 FRARpLI = $0.57M

HoRam: -0.16 ERAR, 1.78 FRAR, -0.22, ERARpLI, 2.49 FRARpLI = $1.6M

The Professor: -0.27 ERAR, 0.13, FRAR, -0.38 ERARpLI , 0.18 FRARpLI = $0.49M

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Dec 12, 2008 9:23 PM EST up reply actions

So it looks like HoRam and Waechter’s contracts were pretty close to the appropriate amount given their likely production, and Farnsworth’s contract was about ten times bigger than it should have been…and one year longer.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Dec 12, 2008 9:40 PM EST up reply actions

yeah

keep in mind that the values are jacked up by the multiplicative (I think that’s the work) way that iving the setup pLI (1.4) has. Ramon Ramirez had a 1.36 last year. It’s extremely unlikely that they all will get it. Like I said, these are the most generous estimates.

In Dr. F’s case, of course, there isn’t much to multiply. Waechter is in a similar boat, WAR-wise. I knew the Waechter deal wasn’t that bad. Of course, it all depends on how his incentives work.

I guess one could argue that it’s hard to have a terrible, terrible deal under $2M. Gload’s was dumb, but it isn’t killing the team. WIt Ho-Ram, if you take his leverage down to 1, it’s more alike $1.2. Worse, but what’s $0.6M when Farns, etc. And the performance incentives…. Then there’s the ambiguity with his projection.

Outside of the math, I still think that even if Ho-Ram performs like that and doesn’t get the incentives, that similar performance could be had for less money, but that’s pretty speculative and moot at this point.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Dec 12, 2008 10:13 PM EST up reply actions

This confuses me

Either way, I’ll still wait to see how they do. Maybe we’ll get lucky.

Or maybe when DM shakes their hand at a press conference some magic dust is rubbed off.

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Dec 12, 2008 9:41 PM EST up reply actions

I think DM needs to shake Billy Beane's hand and try to get some of his magic dust

…or Theo Epstein…or Andrew Friedman…

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Dec 12, 2008 10:05 PM EST up reply actions

(insert joke about George Brett and magic dust)

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Dec 12, 2008 10:08 PM EST up reply actions

AL ERA

I’m assuming an American League with a 4.44 ERA and a National League with a 4.38 ERA (3 year weighted average).

I’m actually more positive than the “Bill James” projection (it’s more of a brand than his actual projection) of 4.96 and the Marcel of 5.05 with Ramirez. His strikeout rate got even worse in relief than it had been as a starter. I just can’t see him being very good at all. And that’s not just from a stat standpoint – he doesn’t overpower anybody or change speeds all that well or have all that great command.

by Szymborski on Dec 12, 2008 8:09 PM EST reply actions