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Midnight Moves Open Thread

Royalsreview_tiny by royalsreview on in News Comment 311 comments

As Dutton explains:

The Royals are close to a two-year agreement with free-agent reliever Kyle Farnsworth for $9.25 million. Accordingly, they are expected to cut at least one more player from their 40-man roster before the 11 p.m. deadline Friday for tendering contracts to players.

Players offered contracts are guaranteed to receive at least 30/183rds of the club’s offer _ roughly one-sixth of their salary _ as separation pay if subsequently released. No separation pay is provided if the player isn’t offered a contract before the deadline.

Well, maybe he'll fail the physical. Holiday miracles can happen!

Incidentally, Dutton also mentions, horribly, that Ho-Ram is expecting to win a spot in the rotation.

A day later, and I feel no better about the Ramirez & Farnsworth deals. I really don't.

+++

UPDATE:

  • Dick Kaegel reports that Bale and Gathright have been non-tendered. And Cuevas. 
  • Dutton reports that German has been resigned. Dutton also shares some nice quotes with Moore bitching about the team's payroll and how it may affect some moves. Has he forgotten that he wants to pay Kyle Farnsworth over $9 million??

0 recs  |  Comment 311 comments

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Read More: Horacio Ramirez (P - WAS), Kyle Farnsworth (P - KAN)

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haven't done the calcs yet

but I’m pretty sure the Farnsworth deal will make even the probably foolish Ibanez deal look Beane-esque

time to get some bananas…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 12, 2008 10:32 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I love the supposed industry wide understanding of defense

and chatter about how its keeping burrell, etc’s value down

then bam, Rauuuuuuuuuuuuuuul

but hey, those magical RBISSSSSSSSSSSSS

by royalsreview on Dec 12, 2008 10:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

There's no reason to feel any better about those deals today

Did Americans feel better about Pearl Harbor on Dec. 8?

Also, H. Ramirez making the rotation would be a catostrophe which would make Tomko look like Cy Young. And if that happens, who loses out? Davies or Bannister? Given that the Royals need to find out if both of those guys are legit major league starters, that would be a big mistake. Boy, Dec. 11 is the gift that just keeps on giving.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 12, 2008 10:34 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I know... I know...

I’ll keep my fingers crossed on Ho-Ram staying in the bullpen, but this looks like Tomko part deux, without Tomko’s sneaky periods of OKness.

by royalsreview on Dec 12, 2008 10:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

tRA said Tomko was actually above average as a starter last season

bizarre

I love that Doug Waechter is the smartest signing of the Winter Meetings for the Royals

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 12, 2008 10:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Isn't that was precipitated the "exhile"

there really needs to be a “best threads of the 2008 season” poll or sometihng

that one, the hilariously diverse Teahen ones. The Soria-to-the-rotation stuff.

Draft Day Threads were awesome and strikingly friendly (BLOODLINES!!!!!!, Shooter Hunt, Steve Phillips jokes, etc.)

Of course, the last few days have been…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 12, 2008 10:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

There was also a great thread for the 2007 trade deadline. Lots of arguing about Davies-for-Dotel and how we should have gotten Balentien, or Hu or Francisco for him. It was a real blood bath.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 12, 2008 10:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

should I be excited

or just disgusted…

Ms. Teagan Presley, come on down

Yeah… the monkeys hate the Ibanez deal so much that I’m rechecking all my math

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 12, 2008 10:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

that makes two of us

they new “overflow” (ahem) girl is a porn “starlet” neamed Teagan Presley

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 12, 2008 10:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Come on

…she’s an “adult actress.”

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 12, 2008 10:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

in that case

you’re cruising the wrong damn internet sites.

See ya’ later.

by kabrink on Dec 13, 2008 12:16 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

did i miss the main arb deadline?

or is that also tonight

baseball rules= super easy to understand

by royalsreview on Dec 12, 2008 10:38 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

As crazy as the Ibanez deal was...

it’s definitely a positive for the Royals. I mean, if a 37 year old LF with no defense is worth a 3/30 contract, then Guillen’s 2/24 remaining seems downright reasonable. Once Dunn, Burrell, and Abreu sign, it may look even better.

I’m full of as much mild positivity about Guillen’s trade prospects as I was about the RamRam-Crisp deal.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 12, 2008 10:53 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

tremendous

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 12, 2008 10:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

although I'd rather have Raul than Guillen, given equal money

did I just say that?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 12, 2008 10:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd rather have Raul...

for 2009. You’d have to check in with me after the 2009 season to see which one I’d rather have for 2010. Raul’s production could really fall off the table at his age.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 12, 2008 10:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

true

but Guillen looks like toast already (I can’t wait to see the results of his “offseason conditioning!”). Raul can still hit.

If Miltno Bradley doesn’t get at least $15M a year, he should kill his agent.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 12, 2008 10:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Whether entirely rational or not...

…teams are loathe to give a position player that kind of money when they know they can’t expect him to play in more than 75% of the team’s games. I know that his hitting is good enough that his part-time performance can carry the risk to some extent, but I think this goes beyond pure rationality and the numbers.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 12, 2008 11:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No, I get that

and one thing about guys like Abreu, Ibanez, Dunn (and even Guillen, although it works to the Royals disadvantage) is that they’re horses. It is right to be careful with injury guys… it seems weird for pay them for 80 games of great production.

Let’s face it, right or wrong (and I understand this from the teams’ perspectives, too), Milton’s “attitude” problems have as much to do with his market isses as his injuries.

I can’t get over the 5 WAR in 120 games this year…

He would drive me CRAZY if he was on the Royals though. Even if he was destroying the ball, all the missed games would be maddening. Not worth it for my sanity.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 12, 2008 11:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I swear I've seen those picks at least 1,000,0000 times in the last week

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 12, 2008 11:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't even know...

how you could do that. It looks like someone slipped in some sort of “gag” ball right before that hit. One that had super glue or something on it that made it stick to his hand.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 12, 2008 11:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

imagine if manny ramirez did this

or the supposedly horrible gloveman barry bonds

the ravechites would want blood

by royalsreview on Dec 12, 2008 11:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

wow. Bonds wasn't THAT bad

and he was a genuinely great defensive left fielder in his 20s

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 12, 2008 11:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I wish I knew how to make .gifs like that

and that I had Royals clips from the last 8 or so years. There would be some fantastic gifs —

  • Harvey hit in the back
  • Harvey killing Grimsley
  • Kerry Robinson and the CF wall
  • T. Long and Chip Ambres running in while the ball drops behind them
  • German with the ball to he face in CF
  • Ken Harvey and the tarp.

by Top Ramen on Dec 13, 2008 9:23 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

That's pretty eerie...

it’s like a miniature, pixelated version of my face.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 12, 2008 10:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not anymore

His defense was once pretty good…then it hit the wall going about 60 mph. It’s genuinely bad now.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 12, 2008 10:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

no

worst defender in the majors this year in almost every metric

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 12, 2008 11:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

still a sweet hitter, even if he is declining

he was about +22 runs or something even with very little power. Walks, baby.

Marcels has him as a +15 hitter next year.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 12, 2008 11:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No, -11

i don’t know all the details, but he does use both STATS and BIS sources as well as regression. He’ snot using straight UZR and Dewan’s, either, because I think he’d get in trouble. He probably will be able to use bUZR next year, it wasn’t out in time this year. Anyway, those “raw” stats are OK for some things, but they tend to be a bit all over the place. Abreu’s numbers were just especially awful this year.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 12, 2008 11:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

sorry

one thing about Abreu is that I still think he was really underrated all those years. He was really, really an amazing hitter in his prime.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 12, 2008 11:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm calling it

Chuck James B#@..

Non tendered X Brave. New Royal by the end of the week.

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Dec 12, 2008 11:05 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Anyone see that Rosenthal is talking about...

the Braves entering the bidding for Furcal? Of course, it appears to be nothing but pure speculation (otherwise known as guessing, or “pulling a story out of your ass”).

by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 12, 2008 11:07 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I've heard that before

I’m still impressed that a squirrel could become such a prominent sports reporter

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 12, 2008 11:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I heard a rumor that I'm supposed to spread around

A-Rod to the Royals for TPJ and a coffee table.

(The Yanks are holding out because they want some frequent flyer miles as a throw-in)

by minda33 on Dec 13, 2008 2:09 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

In other news

That was a stupid comment that a soberer person wouldn’t make.

by minda33 on Dec 13, 2008 2:10 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Just ask

GobbleforCyoung

by minda33 on Dec 13, 2008 2:11 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If I Did

Not drink, I would not post.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Dec 13, 2008 2:29 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

50 minutes!

pack your bags robinson tejeda

by royalsreview on Dec 12, 2008 11:09 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

if tejada gets cut while HoRam and Farns get signed, then

…there’s nothing to do about it

ugh

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 12, 2008 11:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That would be yet another shocking and amazingly stupid move

I’m going to assume it isn’t going to happen and hope I don’t get surprised

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 12, 2008 11:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If Buck gets non-tendered, that would be even worse, from my point of view

I hope Stark was talking out of his ass on that possibility

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 12, 2008 11:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

If Ramon Hernandez has trade value, then Buck’s got to be worth SOMETHING.

"Quit trying to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring...besides that they're fascist. Throw some groundballs. It's more democratic."

by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 12, 2008 11:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not totally unreasonable

he was explicit in saying that they were “possibilities”

I dunno. For a “mainstream” reporter, I sort of like Jayson Stark for some reason.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 12, 2008 11:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He's fine

All of those guys (including the best ones and the worst ones) love reporting any rumor they hear, regardless of the source, regardless of whether it is fifth hand knowledge, regardless of whether even they think it is credible. And they freely mix rumors and their own speculation. They don’t hesitate to trowel out this news-slop because it is what people want and there is no downside to reporting something baseless which turns out to be not true. Gammons has reported at least a hundred trades and FA signings as being done, close, or agreed to which never actually happened.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 12, 2008 11:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It's a byproduct of the 24-hour (or 24 minute) news cycle and this lovely thing we call the Internet...

you’ve got to have something new to say every few hours, or else you don’t get as many hits and people stop paying as much attention to you. If all you did was report the items that you were confident in and/or could confirm, you’d be completely lost in the fray.

"Quit trying to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring...besides that they're fascist. Throw some groundballs. It's more democratic."

by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 12, 2008 11:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

His interviews with Petro...

are usually pretty good. He is less “formal” than he is on ESPN’s regular broadcasts. And unlike most of the other national guys, he is aware that the Royals exist, and generally keeps up with the moves they make and has actual, informed opinions about them.

"Quit trying to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring...besides that they're fascist. Throw some groundballs. It's more democratic."

by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 12, 2008 11:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

So, am I the only one waiting around to discover the future of Joel Peralta?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 12:08 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Unfortunately, we probably won't know until Dutton reports on it

His normal articles don’t come out until something like 4:00 am. Confirmation on who got signed, tendered and non-tendered before the deadline might not come until the morning, in which case, the news won’t get posted to the KC Star’s site until late morning at the earliest.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 13, 2008 12:14 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yep

Dutton’s hours are 9 – 3.

by kabrink on Dec 13, 2008 12:22 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

what's the countdown on Jenna Fischer

moving from the top of out “celebrity safe lists” (pretend i have one for a minute) to “I never want to see her on TV again. Not for another year”status.

I still think she’s got a while for me, but you never know.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 12:15 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

you mean

until she annoys you?

I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

by LeoBloom on Dec 13, 2008 1:14 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yes

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 1:16 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

but wouldn't that make her hotter?

Who is your vote for the tool. I agree it will happen.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 1:22 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

present

I hereby resign from this post.

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Dec 13, 2008 12:14 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

JoPo on Farns

If you haven’t read it, it’s at the end. Needless to say, Joe’s smart enough to hate this signing. Then he does the “DMGM is smart blah blah blah” thing at the end. But he closes with this zinger:

I will also pass along what one longtime observer of Farnsworth said: "The good news is it’ll reduce wear and tear on Joakim Soria’s arm. Because now, he will never, ever be given a lead."

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 12:18 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

The silver lining!

whew, finally

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 13, 2008 12:22 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Silver lining indeed.

Still trying to figure out who we are going to have on base to score.

by Warden11 on Dec 13, 2008 12:37 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

doesn't just walk to first and then wait for real hitters

like Olivo and Guillen to drive him in, like Mr Entitled Alex Gordon

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 12:44 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah seriously

don’t they have phone numbers at the bottom of their stories? i’ve seen joe po’s and i’ve been legitimately tempted to call him and be non chalant, like, “Hey Joe, you’re the best, man”.

Alex Gordon in '08

by RoyalJHWKR on Dec 13, 2008 12:31 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Considering that Mellinger hasn't had a new post on...

his blog for almost a month, he may not be the guy to call. Has he been writing regular articles?

"Quit trying to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring...besides that they're fascist. Throw some groundballs. It's more democratic."

by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 13, 2008 12:32 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, Mellinger

still has the national baseball beat, but its infrequent. Haven’t had any “ball star” entries in forever. They weren’t the greatest posts but they were regular and sometimes had good tidbits.

Alex Gordon in '08

by RoyalJHWKR on Dec 13, 2008 12:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I wondered that myself

I’m pretty sure he’s a younger guy, so he’s likely lower on the pecking order seniority wise in the news biz.

Alex Gordon in '08

by RoyalJHWKR on Dec 13, 2008 12:37 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

joe has facebook?

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by marbotty on Dec 13, 2008 12:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Bill James, Rob Neyer, Dan LeBatard,

Rany, “Vac,” and

probably Buddy Bell, too.

Allard.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 12:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Bob Dutton

At your service

816-234-4352

Alex Gordon in '08

by RoyalJHWKR on Dec 13, 2008 12:42 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That's his personal cell phone

Don’t wake him up.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 13, 2008 12:43 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

LeBatard Once Emailed

Me, saying he would light a candle in the igloo of devotion for me listening to him regularly despite the fact that he came on at 300AM in Alaska. I told him I was probably the only person in Alaska who knew who the fuck he was, and he should worship me. I listened to him driving home from music gigs.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Dec 13, 2008 2:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

indeed

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 14, 2008 1:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

so

he is INDEED the picture of athletic excellence after all.

by kabrink on Dec 14, 2008 3:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I can't believe I'm saying this

But the Nationals re-signing of Willie Freaking Harris for 2/$3M might be the underrated move of the offseason. And by Jim Bowden of all people.

-4 Hitter, -7.5 for LF, 14 defender = 3.420 for NL replacement = 23.4 = 2.3 * expected playing time = about 2 WAR. Even though an arb-eligible year (bought out in the deal ) would be 40 cents on the dollar, that’s still a great deal for the Nationals, since a player of similar quality would be about $10M on the market.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 12:31 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

If Ibanez got 3/30

Bowden should have tried to get Rollins for Harris

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 12:33 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Harris sucks...

he only had 43 RBI’s last year. And just 13 HR’s.

Oh, and you are all a bunch of idiot Midwestern assholes.

Sincerely,
GobbleforCyoung

"Quit trying to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring...besides that they're fascist. Throw some groundballs. It's more democratic."

by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 13, 2008 12:39 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

13 HRs? Seriously?

Are you sure those aren’t career numbers.

Wow, he really didn’t suck.

bizarre

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 12:43 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Seriously.

I was rather surprised, too. Those aren’t his total HR numbers for his career, but last year DOES appear to be his career year in many categories. OPS+ was 98.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/harriwi02.shtml

"Quit trying to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring...besides that they're fascist. Throw some groundballs. It's more democratic."

by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 13, 2008 12:46 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Damn it.

I was going to come up with something witty, but you are correct. I am an idiot midwestern asshole.

by Warden11 on Dec 13, 2008 12:44 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The RR Hall of Fame

1. Joel42
2. billybutlerformvp
3. jmoney42
4. steve phillips

Will gobbleforcyoung get in? Cubsfreak getting suspended might be his own equivalent to wartime service.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 12:47 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

5. devil_fingers

don’t sell yourself short :)

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by marbotty on Dec 13, 2008 12:48 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

if/when Ross Gload leaves the royals/enters the circle of fame/whatever

Joel needs to have his own “remembering” post

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 12:50 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

heh

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by marbotty on Dec 13, 2008 12:51 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It Was A

Rope. No shit, a rope.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Dec 13, 2008 2:44 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

2009 Marcels and CHone's defensive

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 12:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Those numbers are pretty impressive considering he gets most of his PT in LF

I guess that shows the value of very good defense and a pretty good OBP

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 13, 2008 12:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

ANY UPDATES!?!?!

I am kicking and pouting like an infant

by royalsreview on Dec 13, 2008 12:40 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Bob Dutton reports

that Joel Peralta is trying to peek through minda33’s drapes.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 12:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I have an update

My wife is shockingly uninterested in the non-tender deadline. What gives?

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 13, 2008 12:42 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think she'll be fine

just explain exaclty who Esteban German is, then she’ll get it

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 12:44 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

As is my fiance...

fortunately, she is firmly entrenched on the couch watching a Bridget Jones movie in which I am equally uninterested. Stalemate.

"Quit trying to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring...besides that they're fascist. Throw some groundballs. It's more democratic."

by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 13, 2008 12:44 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

does she know bob dutton?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 12:51 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He's Out Of

Town, too………………..hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm…………………….

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Dec 13, 2008 2:46 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not sure...

I bet Greinke is more sushi than Baconator.

by Warden11 on Dec 13, 2008 12:45 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Deep Fried

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Dec 13, 2008 2:47 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Bautista joins the Devil

in the non-tendered former Royals club

BTW, MLB Trade Rumors has 16 teams’ tenders updated, and some of those come from official sites. I never thought I’d utter these words, but where’s Dick Kaegel when you need him?

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 13, 2008 12:45 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

if we don't get him because of ho-Ram's contract

i will be more upset about that than not getting Furcal and Christina’s Kahrl Mark Ellis disrespect combined

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 12:49 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

hey, when did willingham become a national?

and could we have pulled off a similar trade?

This space intentionally left blank.

by marbotty on Dec 13, 2008 12:55 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

he's got a vaguely acceptable OBP

we don’t need that passivity in the clubhouse

the angels won a WS like 6 years ago donchaknow

by royalsreview on Dec 13, 2008 12:57 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh...

Different Willingham.

by Warden11 on Dec 13, 2008 12:58 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

it was a while back

I don’t remember… right after the world series I think. Right after the Jacobs thing. Some minor leaguers. Don’t know how good they were.

+ 13 hitter, – 8 defender, -7.5 LF, + 20 NL replacement level = 17.5 = about 1.75 player. Hmm. Something doesn’t seem right.

Anyway, yeah, below average player, but pretty good. A lot better than Jacobs.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 12:59 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah, it was a while ago

He got flipped for a couple of C-level prospects. It happened not long after the Jacobs trade, and I remember reading it and thinking, ‘why the hell didn’t Moore make THAT trade?’ Willingham for a couple of marginal prospects? Yes, please.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 13, 2008 1:45 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ty? I Thought

He resigned.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Dec 13, 2008 2:48 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Bale and Gathright

Per official site “Hot Stove Blog”

http://comment.mlblogs.com/search?blog_id=47511&tag=Royals

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 13, 2008 1:00 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

great

Marcels has Bale better than any of the Dos Crappy Amigos

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 1:03 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Tres

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 1:03 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Non-tendered...

that’s what you get for punching a door with your pitching hand.

"Quit trying to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring...besides that they're fascist. Throw some groundballs. It's more democratic."

by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 13, 2008 1:03 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1 on gathright

not sure how i feel about bale

by royalsreview on Dec 13, 2008 1:04 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

he just shouldn't use such a stupid voice when he's in the costume

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 1:05 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Given Dayton Moore's keen sense of the relief pitching Market as exemplified by this week's deal

I’m sure Bale will get $10-$12M

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 1:07 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I imagine

Moore working the phones the last 12 hours: “But Gathright’s got speed! A lot of speed! And he jumps cars! With a lot of speed!!!”

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 13, 2008 1:12 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

by LeoBloom on Dec 13, 2008 1:15 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

bless you man

I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

by LeoBloom on Dec 13, 2008 1:12 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Also Jairo

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 13, 2008 1:00 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I just hope the Mariner's don't step in

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 1:06 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe they can work out a system

Where he plays for each team every other week

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 13, 2008 1:10 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

lets merge this biatch

like the kansas city/omaha kings or something

I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

by LeoBloom on Dec 13, 2008 1:13 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

And that was

Dick Kaegel with the breaking news

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 13, 2008 1:03 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Joe Nelson

Non-tendered in Florida

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 13, 2008 1:06 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

another guy with a better projection that the Prof, Horam, or Waechter

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 1:08 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

this is the worst i felt

since i heard amy adams was playing a nun in that new movie

I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

by LeoBloom on Dec 13, 2008 1:12 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

But she's a sexy nun

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 13, 2008 1:13 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

she really is like a glammed up Pam/JF

its scary

I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

by LeoBloom on Dec 13, 2008 1:18 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yea

jim told her to act whiny and dress in shawls and other frumpy stuff when they were dating

he loved it

by royalsreview on Dec 13, 2008 1:27 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

but jim is such a likeable character

he really is

he’s just like you and me

by royalsreview on Dec 13, 2008 1:27 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

whom do you think is "bigger?"

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 1:29 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

who

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 1:29 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

having a difficult time coming up with an answer

i guess i’ll say JF

but i really have no idea what she actually looks like

by royalsreview on Dec 13, 2008 1:37 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Don't know much about John Bale

but the more I look at his numbers, the worse the HoRam deal seems.

What would he gave got in arb?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 1:15 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

HoRam is the new guillen

just about any and all transactions/game events/random occurance will make you feel that way

I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

by LeoBloom on Dec 13, 2008 1:19 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Farns is the new guillen

HoRam is merely the new Gload

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 1:20 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

And Kila is the New Huber

the circle of life

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 1:25 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

A good player the Royals give up too much for

Greinke and Butler for Toriiii, Jon Garland signed to fill Greinke’s spot.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 1:27 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

SO IS ANYONE ELSE NOW WAITING FOR ANOTHER MOVE/TRADE

37+ farnsworth= 38

I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

by LeoBloom on Dec 13, 2008 1:16 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Jairo?

What the hell? Is non-tendering him some kind of necessary roster move to get him onto a minor league contract or injured list or something?

by kabrink on Dec 13, 2008 1:20 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

They want him,

but they also want him off the 40 man. He won’t be ready to pitch until July at earliest. He’d already be protected with a minor league contract if they could have gotten him through waivers.

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 13, 2008 1:44 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

German resigned

http://www.kansascity.com/385/story/935313.html

Apparently, you cannot have enough backup infielders.

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 13, 2008 1:22 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Just trying to keep it even.

We don’t want to favor the outfielders by having more backups there.

by Warden11 on Dec 13, 2008 1:38 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

With Bale being non-tendered

it means to me that Rosa will be in the pen

Werd.

by focs on Dec 13, 2008 1:26 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Possible

Yimmy Yobble, Peralta, and Tejada survived the cut today—throw them in the mix with Soria, Farnsworth, and Mahay (all three locks, I’d think). I’d imagine Davies/Bannister/HoRam loser goes to the pen as well (well, Bannister’s got at least one option left). I guess Hoch has options as well if they want to do that instead and keep all three of those guys in the rotation (a step backwards, I’d say). I assume ShakeYabuta remains in Omaha for the remainder of his American baseball career unless he suddenly rediscovered motion for his pitches. That puts Rosa up against the Waechter reclamation project and Ducky for possible spot 7, so I like his chances.

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 13, 2008 1:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I dunno

if Hillman promised Moore to use Gobble strictly as a LOOGY, I can see why Moore might have spared Yimmy. Yimmy is only good for getting out lefties, but he is awfully good at it, and his numbers this year means that he probably won’t be seeing much of a raise, if any, in arbitration.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 13, 2008 1:47 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Money's the biggest part, I'd say

Bale likely gets a lot more in arbitration. There’s still this pipe dream of signing a $10-11 million/year middle infielder—gotta save money wherever you can (other than not signing Jose Guillens, that is).

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 13, 2008 1:48 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

oh

and Yimmy wasn’t stupid enough to punch a wall with his pitching hand. When that happened, that was pretty much Bale’s ticket off the team. Could’ve seen it coming from a mile away.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 13, 2008 1:48 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Gobble

Might have more value on the market as a cheaper option for a LOOGY for someone else, so keeping him made a little more sense. If they can move Gobble, they may take another run at Bale to a friendlier contract.

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 13, 2008 1:50 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Gobble's also quite a bit younger than Bale

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 12:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I just realized

Tony Pena Jr. is still a Royal.

Wow.

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 13, 2008 1:57 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

So is Shane Costa

These are the really fascinating spots on the 40-man roster, aren’t they?

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 13, 2008 1:59 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

TPJ AND Pena

Costa AND mitch

by royalsreview on Dec 13, 2008 2:03 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I like it.

Don’t you think it’s awesome to be the best AAAA team going?

by kabrink on Dec 13, 2008 2:06 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe

There’s some kind of advantage to a DFA later, like getting the first opportunity to see if they’ll take a minor league assignment, instead of a non-tender making them a free-agent requiring a new negotiation. There’s simply not any room on this 25-man roster for a late-inning not-as -good-as-too-many-people-think defensive replacement at SS.

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 13, 2008 2:08 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Good point

I hope that is what is going on.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 13, 2008 2:11 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

So umm

What do people think about Takashi Saito?
Is his elbow truely finished?

by Royal from Queens on Dec 13, 2008 2:01 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Dunno

But I think a number of teams will try to find out—I don’t see the Royals being one of them. We already have a reclamation project (or several) this year.

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 13, 2008 2:05 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Other names

Joe Nelson who was mentioned above and Chris Britton.

With Chuck James being non-tendered does that mean a signing by Dayton is close behind?

by Royal from Queens on Dec 13, 2008 2:06 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

306008

Called it 3 hours ago (see way above).

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 13, 2008 2:10 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry dude

but there are over 200+ comments. I’m not reading them all.

by Royal from Queens on Dec 13, 2008 2:23 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not bothered in any way

Just want to give credit where credit’s due.

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 13, 2008 2:25 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks CC09

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Dec 13, 2008 9:28 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

its been an incredibly sobering 48 hours

and it wasn’t a kick ass fall to begin with

by royalsreview on Dec 13, 2008 2:11 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+eleventy billion

ah, the sweet, sweet memories of doing nothing

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 12:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What were their contract amounts last year?

I thought Bale’s was higher, and I would have anticipated a bigger raise—even though he cost himself a bunch of season last year, Gobble was just dreadful.

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 13, 2008 2:13 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Answered my own question

Bale made 2.2M last year, Gobble 1.3M. Gobble’s not cheap, but he is cheaper. Of course, Bale’s the better value, but this is not the offseason of good value.

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 13, 2008 2:17 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

2008 salaries
Bale 2.2M
Gobble 1.313M

Bale would have been going into his first year of arbitration. Gobble would have gone into his second year. Since arbitration goes primarily by counting stats, and the amount you get is based on a service time comps, I think Gobble will get nearly $2M, while Bale will get little more than the 80% of his 2008 salary which he is guaranteed by rule. In short, I think Bale would be cheaper. Certainly they’d be at least close. And in terms of production on the field, Bale > Gobble.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 13, 2008 2:17 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I thought of that

Just as I was reading your answer.

The arbitration system reminds me of uniform pay for school teachers based on service time instead of merit—you get a little bump for further education, but it’s mostly about just putting in your time.

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 13, 2008 2:21 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah really

And the evaluate performance by your last two seasons. And “performance” is heavily affected by playing time. If you play two full seasons, they’re gonna give you a nice bump, especially in your second arb. year.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 13, 2008 2:24 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

But gobble

gave up 90 runs in one inning. Twice.

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Dec 13, 2008 9:29 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Because with Hillman as the manager, Peralta is better than Gobble

Gobble as a strict LOOGY is very good. Gobble used as he was throughout 2008 is awful. Not just bad, truly awful. Peralta is better than that.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 13, 2008 3:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

But early in the year, Gobble was good vs. both.

So why couldn’t he be both?
I understand the LOOGy argument.

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Dec 13, 2008 10:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Because he's never been good against RH batters

Not in 2008, 2007 or for his career. He’s very hittable against righty batters and doesn’t get many K’s. He’s only effective against lefty batters.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 13, 2008 11:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

frustration

I really don’t understand why the hell Gobble isn’t gone already. He should have been first or second out the door.

by kabrink on Dec 13, 2008 2:20 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Joe Nelson could be a great pickup

His ZiPS projection:

Joe Nelson – Age 34 3.65 ERA, 69.0 IP, 58 H, 28 ER, 9 HR, 31 BB, 86 K, 117 ERA+

A good ERA with 86 K in 69 IP and a K/BB of nearly 3. Sold.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 13, 2008 2:23 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Could the Marlins get any cheaper?

Seriously, sweet jesus. Further proving signing Farnsworth was idiotic, we could probably bring Nelson back for $1mil and have him put up the same damn numbers.

realistically speaking

by slayor on Dec 13, 2008 2:26 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Multiple teams will bid on him, which will push up his price

I think it will be closer to $3M than $1M, but he’s very likely to be better than Farnsworth for a much loser price.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 13, 2008 2:28 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The amazing part: the Marlins nontendered him because they were 200k apart on the contract.

TWO HUNDRED THOUSAND DOLLARS

That’s unfuckingbelievable. You think they could have signed him for what he wanted, and them flipped him for any sort of prospect. Any type, a warm body. Instead, he walks. Amazing.

realistically speaking

by slayor on Dec 13, 2008 2:29 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

that's what happens

when a tightass like Jeff Loria owns your baseball team.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 13, 2008 2:33 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It would have sucked

To still have him and Wellemeyer still around. But we did keep Ducky!

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 13, 2008 2:29 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I despise Jeffrey Loria as a baseball owner

but the dude is boot camp for making good GMs

BEINFEST NOW

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 12:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

of course

as soon as he got a real budget, he’d probably turn into a moron like almost every other GM does once they get more money

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 12:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Bale prediction

He gets signed by Boston or Oakland for HoRam money, has a good season and people say “where did this guy come from?” He’ll also have a better season than HoRam.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 13, 2008 2:27 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Am I the only person that remembers Bale K'ing like 9 Yankees in 4 innings of relief a year ago?

Throwing like 93-94mph with one of the better left handed curveballs I’ve seen recently? He was only throwing 89-90 in September this year, but still, he looked good. oh well…

realistically speaking

by slayor on Dec 13, 2008 2:30 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Nope

I remember it, too. I would have liked to see Bale get a whole season in the pen. It seems like left-handed relievers are just hitting their prime at age 34.

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 13, 2008 2:36 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I also recall that

I’m a Bale fan; I hope he negotiates a new deal with DM and comes back to me the Royals.

by minda33 on Dec 13, 2008 5:03 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1.8 (with incentives)

just checking out his FIPs and tRAs… dude is always above average, at least recently

Frankly, at this point if Greinke doesn’t get resigned due to money, I’m more worried about Dayton getting assainatied than the President-elect.

You know, strictly on the principle that all lives have the same value.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 12:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Grienke doesn't want to resign yet.

Grienke doesn’t know if he wants to get out of bed to pee though…. so your guess is as good as mine.

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Dec 13, 2008 10:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i bet they resign bale

good non-tenders. german is useful hitter as well. last year was bad but i bet that was an aberration.

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Dec 13, 2008 4:16 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

or decline.

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Dec 13, 2008 9:30 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't mind German coming back

I was wondering about Bale, as well. Hopefully on one else wants him or offers him more money.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 12:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

This site gets more amazing everyday

Someone whining about Tomko above and now whining about John “Freakin” Bale. This is classic it just gets more and more entertaining everyday. Moves aren’t even complete and fans are banging on GMDM. All of a sudden people are banging GMDM’s ability to put together a bullpen based on projections. Come on guys really?

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Dec 13, 2008 10:30 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, really

Stat count. Stats count for Tomko, Bale, Farnsworth, Peralta, HoRam and every other player. I know you are allergic to advanced metrics, but they are genuinely meaningful.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 13, 2008 3:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Advanced Metrics/Projections don't count

I’m sorry you believe they do but if Bret Tomko’s actual ERA was 4.55 like his FIP then maybe he would still be on the team as a starter. Unfortunately counting stats like runs allowed matter and that is why a guy like Bret Tomko thankfully is no longer on this team.

You were wrong during the season when you were arguing for Tomko and no stat like FIP or tRA can change that no matter what new math equation you develop Bret Tomko remains a 35yo RH with a low 90’s fastball with little to no movement. All Advanced Metrics come up with the same conclusion to that problem HOMERUN.

In the end your tRA’s your FIPs your advanced metrics are nothing more than projections, poor ones at that. What GMDM has done with the bp has worked in the past and I have no reason to believe it won’t continue.

Does all this mean I am in lockstep with the Farnsworth deal, no not because I don’t believe him to be a decent option in the bullpen with McClures help but more because I believe it to be absolutely terrible negotiating on the part of GMDM. Farnsworth and his agent had absolutely no leg to stand on to get the type of deal that he did. In comparison there was only one notable setup man that had signed prior to the Farnsworth deal and that was Affeldt. Not only is Jeremy 3 years younger than Kyle but he at a higher K/9, lower BB/9 HR/9 and ERA than Farnsworth and for GMDM to agree to a higher deal than what Affeldt got is ignorant on GMDM’s part.

As far as the Bale>Gobble/HoRam conclusions I think that maybe has more to do with what Bale did to his hand last year and who McClure/Hillman are more comfortable with. 500K or so is splitting hairs when you are talking a 70M payroll if McClure/Hillman are more comfortable working with Yimmy, HoRam then so be it.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Dec 13, 2008 4:37 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Advanced Metrics/Projections don’t count

That’s a good, succinct way to describe willful ignorance and anti-intellectualism. I appreciate your clarity and openness.

I’m sorry you believe they do but if Bret Tomko’s actual ERA was 4.55 like his FIP then maybe he would still be on the team as a starter. Unfortunately counting stats like runs allowed matter and that is why a guy like Bret Tomko thankfully is no longer on this team.

Do you know what accounts for the difference between a pitcher’s ERA and his FIP/tRA? The defense behind him, the bullpen behind him and luck. Metrics like FIP, xFIP and tRA come much closer to isolating the pitcher’s actual performance and separating it from things like defense, the pitchers that entered the game after him and at least some aspects of batted ball luck.

In the end your tRA’s your FIPs your advanced metrics are nothing more than projections, poor ones at tha

Projections? Projections are about the future. These stats describe past performance. And they do so in a way that actually speaks to the pitcher’s performance, not other factors (as much as possible).

What GMDM has done with the bp has worked in the past and I have no reason to believe it won’t continue.

So because of past bullpen successes then we should expect every bullpen he puts together to be good regardless of the moves he makes? That is utter nonsense. I give him credit for having a good track record with bullpens and pitching in general. So I give him the benefit of the doubt to some degree. Unfortunately, there is little doubt about how bad and therefore overpaid Farnsworth is. Even the most optimistic, reasonable projections for him have him as merely a bit above average, and that’s not the most likely outcome for him. Moore screwed up, period.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 13, 2008 4:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm sorry I don't buy into your advanced metrics

Calling them advanced is an error by sabermeticians. Why is it the defenses fault that a guy throws a hitable pitch? Brett Tomko throws a low 90’s to 94 mph fastball with little to no movement any player with his salt is gonna be able to stroke that pitch. Just because it doesn’t go over the fence everytime doesn’t mean the defense is bad maybe it just means that pitcher isn’t all that good. Guys like Tomko are always gonna have an average FIP/tRA because they don’t walk an absorbanant amount of hitters but the fact remains his stuff is average to below average and he remains easier to hit than most. Tomko did pitch at a time last when the Royals were playing decent defense yet he still found a way to get shelled.

When they develop an advanced pitching stat that takes into effect ball off the bat trajectory and/or speed off the bat call me because at that point it will be truly advanced until then calling all balls off the bat equal is fiction.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Dec 13, 2008 9:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That's why we play the season on paper,

Right NY Royal?

Oh… my bad. We play in the season and guys surprise us both positely and negatively….

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Dec 13, 2008 10:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Does this mean we can't evaluate players?

Should we not say anything about how good or bad players are? Is that which is “on paper” meaningless? Sure guys can surprise us. Farnsworth could be great next year. Gordon could be awful next year. But neither of those things are likely. We have quite a bit of information about how good Farnsworth and Ramirez are. It doesn’t look good at all. Is anything possible in 2009? Sure. But not all possibilities are equally likely.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 13, 2008 11:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I’m sorry I don’t buy into your advanced metrics
Calling them advanced is an error by sabermetician

How can you seriously argue against stats and metrics you don’t understand? Have you read any articles or books about the major flaws in ERA and the value of FIP or tRA? Of course you haven’t. You prefer to assume that ERA tells you what you need to know. Ignorance is bliss.

When they develop an advanced pitching stat that takes into effect ball off the bat trajectory and/or speed off the bat call me because at that point it will be truly advanced until then calling all balls off the bat equal is fiction.

You do realize that FIP and tRA do not treat all batted balls as equal, don’t you? Since you don’t really know anything about those metrics, of course you don’t know that. But that doesn’t keep you from criticizing them. It would be like me criticizing quantum string theory. When I know almost nothing about it, how can I say it is wrong?

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 13, 2008 11:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Condescend much?

Its laughable tRA has a simple approach to batted balls basically stating that all groundballs, linedrives and flyballs are created equal. I’m sure you have played the game and realize this not to be true.

Oh wise master of the stats please indicate to me how FIP calculates these batted balls as differently? Last I looked other than HR’s FIP doesn’t really take much of that into consideration. Maybe you can enlighten me though oh great one. All it stats are that if a guy doesn’t walk or hit batters and strikes out a decent share of hitters then it must be his defenses fault for allowing runners to score. Again too simple for my taste.

NY there are such things as hitable pitchers and pitches it’s not the defenses fault if Tomko throws a pitch with no movement it’s his fault.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Dec 14, 2008 12:07 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Have you read any of the voluminous research about how very little a pitcher affects what happens to balls put in play? A pitcher has some control, but most of what happens to balls put in play is out of his control. When I first read of this research, it sounded like bullshit. That was the response of most people, including many (if not most sabermetricians). And so studies were done, re-done and replicated over and over. Again and again, the research confirmed that pitchers have little impact on what happens to balls put in play. They can get strikeouts. They can give up walks. They affect whether solid contact is made (line drives).

So stats which take defense and bullpen support out of the equation do a better job of isolating the pitcher’s performance. I would suggest you read some of this research instead of just assuming it isn’t true. There’s an entire field of research and analysis (sabermetrics) which understands this. Yet you know better than them, despite the fact that you haven’t even read their findings. Closing your eyes and putting your fingers in your ears isn’t going to change reality. Willful ignorance is pathetic.

Kcscoliny, you really deserve to be condescended to. You ridicule and reject something you haven’t even attempted to understand. You prefer to live in your simplistic world of analyzing pitchers by your own amateur scouting opinion of their stuff, along with their ERA. Your analysis is state of the art…for the 1970’s. I can tell you are genuinely interested in and passionate about baseball. I would suggest that you try to learn more about it.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 14, 2008 1:14 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yet you know better than them, despite the fact that you haven’t even read their findings. Closing your eyes and putting your fingers in your ears isn’t going to change reality. Willful ignorance is pathetic.

I’m not the one in here who thinks to know better than everyone else. That would be you NY. You are the king of that realm. As far as your FIP and tRA are concerned and the rest of your increasing stat totals I’m glad you guys are intrigued by them but they don’t prove anything that the eye can’t already see. Just because you can come up with a math equation to try to prove your assertion that Tomko is average doesn’t make you right.

FIP,tRA all your so called advanced metrics are aftermath stats to try to compare and or project what a player is going to do or what he already has done and they are overly complicated and ignorant because they don’t change anything that they REALLY did or are going to do. The only people that believed Brian Bannister was some kind of stud was the sabermetric community. Anyone who could watch his 90 mph fastball realized it was only a matter of time before he began to get knocked around.

Have you read any of the voluminous research about how very little a pitcher affects what happens to balls put in play? A pitcher has some control, but most of what happens to balls put in play is out of his control

I can’t believe this is actually something you believe. Have you ever stepped in the box to face a 90+mph fastball with movement? Once the ball is put in play yes a pitcher has little to no control nor does the RF when the ball is hit to LF. The pitcher can control to a point where the ball is actually hit and the effectiveness with which it is hit.

How many bats does Mariano Rivera have to saw off to prove that to you? These aren’t mindless rats out there running around they are talented/skilled athletes and just because you and mathmeticians can’t understand that concept doesn’t make you right.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Dec 14, 2008 1:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't want to enter the debat in particular

but just note that tRA (and i imagine FIP, too), don’t leave much mystery as to Mariano Rivera’s awesomeness…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 14, 2008 1:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm Not An

Active stat person, but I’ve long recognized the value of beginning advanced analysis, such as OBA, SLG, etc.. I was fascinated with Boswell’s “Total Average” in the middle ’80’s, but it was a bit like Einstein’s “Unified Field” theory, a bridge too far in attempting to establish the absolute value of a player.

As for using advanced metrics to project a player’s future, historical comparison of projections and actual performance would seem to be the proof of its efficacy. I don’t know how well stat based projection has fared in this aspect, but I’ll bet some people around here do.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Dec 14, 2008 2:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

FIP,tRA all your so called advanced metrics are aftermath stats to try to compare and or project what a player is going to do or what he already has done and they are overly complicated and ignorant because they don’t change anything that they REALLY did or are going to do.

Advanced metrics like FIP and tRA describe a player’s performance, just like ERA, K/9 or any stat. The advanced metrics just do a better job of isolating the pitcher’s performance than old school stats.

The only people that believed Brian Bannister was some kind of stud was the sabermetric community.

The sabermetric community has never been in love with Bannister’s pitching. The vast majority of the sabermetric community predicted Bannister would have a poor 2008 season.

I can’t believe this is actually something you believe.

That pitchers have some but little impact on balls in play isn’t even controversial anymore (except among traditionalists who aren’t interested in anything new). The only question is the degree to which this is true. Are you at all familiar with BABIP (Batting Average for Balls in Play) and that few pitchers can reliably affect their BABIP? Knuckleballers, extreme sinkerballers and pitchers who can consistently get a very high percentage of groundballs can maintain a lower than average BABIP. Pitchers do have an effect on line drives. So a pitchers likely BABIP is a factor of their line drive percentage. Any deviation from that expected BABIP is about luck and defense.

I would suggest that you read up on the subject instead of just assuming all of this voluminous research is just wrong. Persistent, willful ignorance is a weak foundation from which to debate.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 14, 2008 4:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

FIP or tRA can't tell me anything that a few others stats can't

I’m sorry you don’t have this ability but apparently you don’t. You couldn’t see that Tomko sucked ass last year. Why? You can’t look past your stats and see that is your problem. I watch every game and I see who is actually throwing out there and where they are locating and what counts they are working from. Those things will tell me more than looking on Fangraphs to tell me Tomko’s FIP.

You take no fan/scout approach at all you think the scientific method is the only way to evaluate someone and that couldn’t be further from the truth. You need to put the calculator down and actually watch sometime to see what is going on.

FIP is a somewhat easy stat to manipulate. Anyone who can throw in the low 90’s not walk a ton and miss a few bats is gonna have an average FIP. Its nature that a guy who can somewhat control the strikezone/hit the target is always gonna have an average FIP that same guy will not always have an average ERA. Those 92mph straight fastballs turn into multiple hits.

To each there own NY you love that shite and I don’t I would rather lean towards the technological advances in the game.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Dec 14, 2008 10:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I watch every game and I see who is actually throwing out there and where they are locating and what counts they are working from. Those things will tell me more than looking on Fangraphs to tell me Tomko’s FIP.

Objective, meaningful metrics tell you more and are a lot more reliable than the subjective scouting opinions of some average fan sitting on his couch.

You need to put the calculator down and actually watch sometime to see what is going on.

You need to understand that stats are more meaningful that subjective scouting opinions. Of course, the subjective scouting opinions of good major league scouts is valuable. The amateur scouting opinions of some fan is worth very, very little. You’re not a major league scout. Get it?

To each there own NY you love that shite and I don’t I would rather lean towards the technological advances in the game.

Technological advances? LMAO. What do you mean, your high def TV? Or do you mean pitch f/x which reliably tells you how hard a guy is throwing. Unfortunately, that kind of data gives you enough information to assume that a pitcher can’t be particularly effective if he has merely average fastball velocity. Greg Maddux’s velocity was just average when he was wing CY awards. Joe Nelson’s fastball is only 90 mph and he’s still a strikeout machine. But hey, as long as you know a pitcher’s velocity, that’s all you need to know. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 14, 2008 10:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Do you ever tire of being some kind of genius?
I didn’t know F/X technology only tracked velocity? Hmm thought it tracked movement too. Maybe that was why Greg Maddux’s 90 mph fastball combined with location was so incredible. Maybe you’re right it was his superior defense behind him and luck thats the reason he won 13+ games for twenty straight seasons. God thats one lucky streak you would think some other guy with a 90 mph fastball would’ve had some kinda lucky streak like that.

F/X technology and the advances that will come behind it will take this game further than any Bill James derived statistic ever hopes to.

By the way when something that you ARGUE actually comes into fruition then I’ll believe you a little bit more. You sit on your CHAIR OF GENIUS telling people how ignorant they are in their view of the game yet pretty much everything you have said about this team in the past is wrong and rarely your own opinion. With one minor exception a HoRam reacquiring. These little quotes
A little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

get old when debating with someone who continually proves that the knowledge they have about baseball goes no further than a book. I think you get so upset with peoples scouting opinion because thats not how you watch the game. Yes I’m not a professional scout but I’ve played/coached and been around this game for 28 of my 30 years of life and a extreme level and so far I’ve been pretty accurate with what I’ve seen about these players on this team. You can’t get past that some people don’t care of the aftermath of the game they actually care what happens during the game. Why did this hitter miss a 94 mph fastball maybe it was the 4-6 degree drop in movement. What factor led to the second baseman not getting to the ball up the middle maybe it was his missed initial first step. Just because their isn’t a title behind someones name that doesn’t say scout that doesn’t mean they don’t have the qualifications to be one. I mean your title isn’t NYRoyal “Asshole” but you are definitely one of those. Yes that was a cheap shot.

Your defense of throwing a fit last thursday as opposed to people doing the same during game threads was ignorant it was just your point of view. It wasn’t right.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Dec 15, 2008 11:37 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I shouldn't have typed that

I mean your title isn’t NYRoyal "Asshole" but you are definitely one of those. Yes that was a cheap shot. You are good at ticking me off but that was over the line.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Dec 15, 2008 12:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Your defense of throwing a fit last thursday as opposed to people doing the same during game threads was ignorant it was just your point of view. It wasn’t right.

I called some stupid moves stupid moves. My response was proportionate to offense.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 15, 2008 3:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

If you need to call me an asshole or a douche or a son of a bitch or any of the other vulgar names you’ve called me over the last year, please do so by e-mail. Let’s not pollute this site with that shit. I know how you feel about free speech, but this site has rules, or at least guidelines. Even if you truly feel that someone is the king of all shitheads, keep it to yourself. We don’t want this site to become one of those places where discussion quickly devolves in people just throwing obscene names and adolescent insults at each other.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 15, 2008 3:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

True although at times it would be entertaining

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Dec 15, 2008 3:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The problem is that little fires like that cannot be contained

Look at Royals Corner. That site has no rules or guidelines about people calling each other douche bags, cocksuckers, etc. So, very frequently when a debate flares up there, people start throwing names, epithets and comments about each other’s mothers. And it’s not in a witty way. It’s like 14-year-olds talking shit on a playground. Unfortunately, on pretty much any website, it is easy for the discourse to deteriorate to that level if things aren’t moderated.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 15, 2008 3:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

30/183rds?

What kind of crazy rule is that?

Owners: “1/6? That’s way too high! How about 1/7?”
MLBPA: “Fine how about 30/183?”
Owners: “Deal!”

Can anyone explain this to me?

Kansas City Royals: your 2006 and 2007 NL Central champions!

by mazoboom on Dec 13, 2008 11:38 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I wondered the same thing.

It’s on my long list of things I really want to ask GMDM if I happen to run into him in a place where he can’t run away and HAS to answer my questions.

by minda33 on Dec 13, 2008 2:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

has he run away before?

was he wearing a golf shirt?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 2:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The last time I ran into him, I got a little starstruck (and I was also working), and he was in the middle of a conversation and I didn’t want to interrupt.

But YES on the golf shirt, and the sunglasses/strap combo.

by minda33 on Dec 13, 2008 2:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

watch out Minda

He might need help packing!

by kabrink on Dec 13, 2008 2:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

thanks for the apparel info

if I starter wearing that stuff (I don’t think I’ve owned a golf shirt in my adult life), can I be a baseball exec?

Keep us updated if the wardrobe changes

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 3:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Don't overlook the all-important

sunglasses strap. It really completes the look.

by minda33 on Dec 13, 2008 3:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Jin Wong has made it work for him, too

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 3:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Actually, this is from a pretty interesting article from his alma mater

the University of Mary Washington

Former UMW All-American Jin Wong ’97 (right) also has made a splash on the national baseball scene. He has risen from the ranks of the minor leagues to the Kansas City Royals, where he serves as director of baseball operations. Among players drafted since Wong joined the Royals are Zack Greinke, Billy Butler, Alex Gordon and Jeff Bianchi.

Wong began as an intern with the Atlanta Braves. He has moved swiftly through Kansas City’s major league organization from scouting operations coordinator to assistant scouting director to director of baseball operations. He handles everything from in-game video management to free agent acquisitions to major league contracts and arbitrations. He also is in charge of budgeting and scouting operations at both the major and minor league levels. He has won numerous awards in baseball circles, and he is a rising star on the major league front office scene.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 3:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, I agree and think a new fashion wave is coming

I’m going to get a sunglass strap too.

He must need it for all that hard running and working out that he does with the team.

Or picking up chairs.

by kabrink on Dec 13, 2008 3:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

that makes sense

although I’m disappointed it doesn’t come from some arcane aspect of freemasonry

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 14, 2008 5:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What Makes You

Think it doesn’t?

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Dec 20, 2008 1:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Can someone tell me what this means?
Club officials concede, privately, that trading outfielder José Guillen is the only reasonable way to free up sufficient payroll to pursue Furcal.

Not about the specific, but the “privately.” Journalism people (Meeeeeeeeeeeenda)? If it’s so private, why does Dutton not only know this, but print it?

Not a crtiicism, it just seems like a weird way to phrase something.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 12:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

d_f,

 I noticed that sentence as well. Really, I think it was Dutton trying to make us feel like we’re part of “insider” information, when really…we’re not. Either that or it’s the truth, and he’s NEVER going to be let into another Royals boardroom again.

by minda33 on Dec 13, 2008 2:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

thanks

Good to know, if possessing less entertainment value than creepy Jo-El Peralta stories.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 2:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Jo-El

was Superman’s dad, right?

by kabrink on Dec 13, 2008 2:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

For the record,

that was purely speculation on my part. I see no reason why Dutton could get away with printing something like that if it was really so “private,” especially about a player whose value and contract are so polarizing.

And I have a few more creepy stories up my sleeve, but no more about Jo-El (yet).

by minda33 on Dec 13, 2008 3:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

how does woods' contract make us feel

Woods is getting $10 mil/year. Does that make the farnsey deal look any better?

go royals

by daverclear on Dec 13, 2008 1:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'd have to say "no"

I think the Wood deal was probably too much, but that’s more a function of the overpaying for Proven Closers( tm) that happens in general. He does project as a decent pitcher, despite the injuries, whereas the Professor projects as a poor man’s Joel Peralta.

Baseballthinkfactory is down for the moment, so I can’t get to the ZiPS projection for Wood, so I’ll use Marcels for both. I give my commentary on the ZiPS projections for HoRam, Farnsworth, and Waechter here, but I’ve read more about projecting reliever leverage when estimating contract value since I posted that, so maybe I’ll redo all that stuff and post my results, if people are interested.

Marcels has a league era at 4.3. For relievers, some people use league era or ra as replacement level, but I’ll use lgERA times 1.07 as I have been, and that’s more generous to all involved. Market value is $4.84 * Wins above replacement (for the purposes of this post, I’ll use 10 runs as one win, although 10.5 is probably better). Then add in $400,000 for the replacement player salary. I won’t deal with decline curves here, although those are a bit “flatter” for relievers, anyway.

Relievers, of course, are put in certain “leveraged” situtations, so the runs saved above replacement need to be multiplied by that situation. That’s hard to project, of course. Generally, closers have around a 2 pLI, setup men around a 1.5 pLI, and so on. Tom Tango says that for the reliever market, the projected pLI should be the average of their expected use and 1. So for Closers, it would be 1.5, set up guys, 1.25, and so on.

The formula for leveraged runs saved above replacement for relievers is (lgERA x 1.07-ERA) x (IP/9). Then multiply that times expected pLI (pitcher Leverage index).

I’ll use which ever is better (ERA or FIP) to determine projected market value for each pitcher

Make sense? sorry, I’m doing the best I can.

Wood:

Marcel projects a 3.76 ERA and 3.58 FIP over 61 innings.

ERA-RAR = 5.70, times 1.5 pLI = 8.55
FIP-RAR = 6.94, times 1.5 pLI = 10.41

Market value = (1.04 times 4.84) + .4 = $5.43M = $4.6M overpayment

pr0FF3ss0r_F4rnsw0rth:

Marcel projects a 4.72 ERA and 4.87 FIP over 61 innings. SO I’ll use ERA for him. I’ll even be kinder — I won’t use any sort of leverage index for him; because he’s projected below replacement level the setup pLI of 1.25 will just make him worth less. I don’t know the details of the deal exactly, I’ll assume $4.5/yr. This is just for the first year.

ERA-RAR = -0.81
FIP-RAR = -1.84

Market value = (-0.08 times 4.84) + .4 = = $0.0128M ($12,800) Market value. = $4.487M overpayment. Ahem

Straight up, of course, it looks like the Indians overpayed more. So I could leave it at that. I will say that it’s very close, and given that Farns is below replacement as a reliever, if this projection hlds and you add anything like credible setup leverage, then he’s worth exactly nothing. On the other side almost every closer ends up with a higher pLI than 1.5. Soria was 1.78 last season, F-Rod was 2.25.

So I don’t think the Wood deal was good (although some disagree). But all things considered, it doesn’t make me feel better about DMGM paying out for a guy who looks like he’s worth a busboy’s salaray.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 1:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What about these projections though

I think you’ve fallen in love a little too much with projections and replacement level stats.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Dec 13, 2008 1:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

maybe

but we all project in some way when trying to figure out how good a team/player will be in the future? We don’t all use computers or formula, but whether you’re just looking at the last couple years’ performance or looking at a kids swing/pitch arsenal and thinking about what that will produce, that’s a kind of projection.

Marcel isn’t even all that complicated. It’s little more than looking at the last three year’s performance, weighting them 5-4-3 for hitters and 5-3-2 for pitchers with very slightly aging adjustments. It’s actually pretty much like common sense idea of how we “project” a player when we go to baseball-reference. And I use other people’s projections since 1) I don’t have my own system, 2) if I did it would suck, and 3) so that people don’t think I’m biasing it in any way.

The past isn’t perfect as a predictor of the future, especially with young players. Buy neither Wood nor Farnsworth or young. And I think thinking there’s some “untapped potential” on a 32 year-old reliever that goes beyond the numbers is a lot more like divination than looking at his recent performance. (And yes, it does seem that the pr0f3ss0r was a bit unlucky with FB/HR rates last year, although that doesn’t explain everything).

Ymmv, I’m doing the best I can.

What baseline would you suggest other than replacement level? If I used league average, Farnsworth would look even more pathetic.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 2:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think you are making both far more complicated than they really are.

Anyone can look at the Farnsworth and Wood contracts and say they are both vastly overpaid. They are both “retardedly stupid” contracts and I don’t need to back them up with projections especially relief pitcher projections which are hardly accurate.

Two things real quick: I absolutely hate the phrase “replacement level” because with it passes the notion that a team can replace player A with a player with the same effectiveness. That can only be said if there were an equal pool of talented players left unused by teams. I believe we all know that not to be true. Maybe that is my own problem with that phrase and no one else shares that but I do hate it.

I don’t like projections when Las Vegas Sportsbook sit down and start putting lines on all projections then I will start paying attention to them. I mean come on look at Marcel and Bill James projections they are too simplified I mean come on neither one of them could go out on a limb and say that Matt Joyce would play more than 92 games just because he only played 92 last year. This is what we are using to make valuations on contracts? How about just looking at what players are signing for i.e. Jeremy Affeldt and just coming to the logical conclusion that KC overpaid.

d_f you are taking a far too intelligent approach of dealing with an uninformed fan like Gobble.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Dec 13, 2008 2:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

of course

Just because another team overpays for a different player, doesn’t mean we have to overpay for ours. Especially if there’s no actual competition for the subject player.

by kabrink on Dec 13, 2008 2:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

wat

Banny being Banny.

by JobDDT on Dec 13, 2008 7:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Does anyone think?

That Hillman will use Soria in better, high leverage situations in 7th and 8th innings this year? I guess I tend to doubt it. Soria probably has some incentives in his contract to get “saves”.

Do you think Farnsworth might force Trey to do the above?

by kabrink on Dec 13, 2008 3:11 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Did we notice in the Star that

“Also on Saturday, the Royals announced that Jairo Cuevas, a right-handed pitcher acquired on waivers from Atlanta, has agreed to a contract with Class AAA Omaha.”?

From this Dutton article. I didn’t recall seeing it mentioned, but it’s probably noteworthy.

by minda33 on Dec 13, 2008 3:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

good catch

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 3:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

damn

i wanted him to go back to atlanta again

by royalsreview on Dec 13, 2008 3:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

it's not over yet, trust me

When will KC get the Braves in interleague?

What’s the midpoint?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 13, 2008 5:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

My brief look shows it to be Tiptonville, TN

which is pretty cool because it’s pretty much the border of MO, KY, and TN. And it’s pretty close to Arkansas too. So many states would be involved in the epic battles.
We might even get the southern Illinois militia into some skirmishes.

It’s also by a pretty lake.

A rivalry with the Braves would be pretty intense. There’s so fewer games than with the Mariners so each game would mean so much more and would decide things for perhaps years.

Kansas City Royals: your 2006 and 2007 NL Central champions!

by mazoboom on Dec 13, 2008 5:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What is wrong with HoRam?

I understand the Farnsworth grilling, he is clearly on the decline of his career, but HoRam was very effective for us last year. Why not give him a chance to win a spot in the rotation, and if he fails put him in the role that he shined for us in (0.90 WHIP as a Royals reliever)?

Yay on HoRam, Nay on Farny.

Banny being Banny.

by JobDDT on Dec 13, 2008 7:08 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

The reason you don't give him a chance at the rotation is because there is every reason to believe he'd be horrible there

…and that other options would be better. HoRam was horrible as a starter for most of his career. And even as a reliever he couldn’t strike anybody out, nor did he have pinpoint control. I’m cautiously optimistic that he’d be a decent reliever again. I don’t see any reason for optimism about him as a starter. None whatsoever.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 13, 2008 7:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Who cares what the contract says?

It doesn’t mean it is true. Why are so many other things GM speak yet a contract isn’t?

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Dec 13, 2008 9:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

There every reason to believe you're a woman too

(that’s not meant to be offensive, it’s just meant to show that anything is possible)

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Dec 13, 2008 10:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

not meant at you KS

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Dec 13, 2008 10:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Bizarre

Are you drunk or high?

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 13, 2008 11:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't say he was definitely going to be in the rotation

I didn’t even say that it is likely he’ll be in the rotation. I’m saying that it would be a bad thing for the Royals if he’s in the rotation. Even taking that possibility seriously is dangerous. How seriously is Moore taking this possibility? Who knows.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 13, 2008 11:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Um.. HoRam's competion is..

Duckworth, Bannister, Rosa and a couple of guys they are looking at in spring training. If he seems to be the superior starter after spring training, why wouldn’t you start him? If he does poorly you can always replace him.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Dec 14, 2008 6:22 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

His competition is the above pitchers plus Davies. None of them is guaranteed a rotation spot.

. If he seems to be the superior starter after spring training, why wouldn’t you start him?

Because I wouldn’t want the Royals to make a mistake about who should start based on somebody “looking good” for a month in Arizona. There is no reason to believe that HoRam will ever be even a decent starter. Bannister, Rosa and Davies at least have better upside than HoRam.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 14, 2008 5:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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