Royals bullpen news
The Royals official site has announced that Farnsworth passed his physical and the deal is official. The story also has some interesting tidbits about the bullpen:
- Farnsworth makes $4.25M in 2009, $4.5M in 2010 and there is a club option for 2011 for $5.25M or a $500K buyout. The contract includes $750K in performance bonuses for each season.
- Moore thinks McClure can help Farnsworth.
"Kyle has been very, very dominant at times in his career, and we feel that he's continuing to get better," Moore said. "We feel that he can get better. Bob McClure, our pitching coach, recognizes some things in his delivery and his approach that, with some necessary adjustments, we feel that he'll continue to improve with his consistency in the strike zone."
- The likely bullpen is starting to come together.
The signing has the Royals' bullpen looking to be nearly complete for next season. Along with Farnsworth and Mahay, the other members of Kansas City's projected seven-man bullpen would appear to be Waechter, left-hander Jimmy Gobble and right-hander Robinson Tejada. That leaves two open spots.
Isn't the writer (not Kaegel this time) leaving out someone? Like the closer? If those are the likelies for the pen, that leaves one open spot.
- Bale could be back with the Royals.
Although left-hander John Bale was among four players non-tendered by the club on Friday, he's likely to be re-signed by the club to fill one of those spots. Bale, who made $2.2 million last season, has been plagued by injuries the past two seasons.
- This info was already out there, but the Royals signed Cuevas to a minor league contract, and re-signed German (terms not yet disclosed).
So it appears this is what the bullpen is likely to be at this point:
Soria (R)
Farnsworth (R)
Mahay (L)
Waechter (R)
Gobble (L)
Tejeda (R)
Bale (L)
That raises some questions. Apparently Peralta was tendered. Does this mean he battles Waechter for a bullpen spot in spring training? Peralta is out of options, so either makes the 25-man roster or he's gone. Given Moore's apparently favorites, it doesn't look like there is room for Carlos Rosa. His performance in 2008 shows that he's major league ready. Are the Royals continuing to groom him as a starter, or is he just a future MLB reliever who is going to be wasted in Omaha? I think he's likely better than three or four pitchers on the above list.
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Its sad to see talent wasted at Omaha...
Personally I think both Musser and Rosa are better than a couple of options on that list (Bale, Farnsworth*)
*although if McClure says he thinks he can fix Farnsworth, then I’m willing to give him some time to show it. I mean He said he could fix Meche, and he obviously did. Much more up in the air is whether or not the “professor” will let McClure help him.
Honeslty, Rosa’s being kept at omaha makes me hopeful for one of two things:
1. Farnsworth or Mahay being flipped at the deadline, hopefully for another Daviesesque pickup.
2. Soria being stretched out this year for a future in the rotation and Rosa being groomed as the closer of the future.
Suffice to say I would be happy with either option.
I refuse to set up a signature....DAMMIT
by RoyalPug on
Dec 14, 2008 2:08 AM EST
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Musser?!?
Nah…he’s a AAA guy who could probably fill in if needed, but nothing more. He has poor control. 5 or 6 walks per nine aint getting it done.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on
Dec 14, 2008 2:52 AM EST
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On a related note:
The Marlins just non-tendered Joe Nelson and the Royals are rumored to be interested. I guess that would take care of the mystery spot.
I refuse to set up a signature....DAMMIT
by RoyalPug on
Dec 14, 2008 2:16 AM EST
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Where did you see that rumor about the Royals being interested in Joe Nelson?
Unfortunately, I think a lot of teams are going to be bidding on him.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on
Dec 14, 2008 2:43 AM EST
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You'd think so
But I’m surprised he was Non Tendered. Youd think that if there was interest they would ahve made a trade…
by GoBabies!! on
Dec 14, 2008 6:44 PM EST
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Perhaps
I don’t think he’s a great reliever who everyone is going to want (his age and injury history hurt his value). So I don’t think he’s someone that teams would like to pay for and give up someone in trade for him. But now that he’s a FA, I think multiple teams will want him and he’ll go for more than $1M. But I could certainly be wrong.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on
Dec 14, 2008 6:48 PM EST
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they would have non-tendered Jacobs, too
small market teams would actually give a shit about winning should start raiding the Marlins front office. Think of what those guys could do with a 40$M budget.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Dec 14, 2008 10:23 PM EST
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obviously it's going to be a little bit worse
and that’s what i voted for.
i think tejeda will ultimately end up being the 8th inning guy once we get a month or so into the season. he’s ready for a breakout in my opinion.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on
Dec 14, 2008 2:54 AM EST
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That Farnsworth contract is so weird.
If Moore were smart, really smart – he’d have Soria close first half, transition him into rotation starting at the all-star break. Have Farnsworth close from ASB break on, move Rosa into 8th inning role, hope Farnsworth puts together one of his good seasons, flip him in the offseason as a closer and then move Soria into rotation full time and make Rosa the new closer. Uh, yah, something like that.
realistically speaking
by slayor on
Dec 14, 2008 5:59 AM EST
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Unfortuneatley, the conditional is less of a slam dunk than it seemed 6 months ago
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Dec 14, 2008 1:59 PM EST
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Obviously it's going to be...
…the same or a little better. No team would deliberately decimate a bullpen. Management thinks there is value out there we’re not seeing. I’m inclined to play along. Plus, there’s NO guarantee that last year’s bullpen would perform exactly the same in 2009. It’s the nature of pitching to vary from year to year. – TL
[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.
by timlacy on
Dec 14, 2008 10:28 AM EST
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Obviously?
Even if they team had kept Ram Ram and Nunez, they probably would have regressed a bit. They just brought in three gjuys, none of whom were close to Nunez last year, and only one of whom was even as good as John Bale…
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Dec 14, 2008 2:01 PM EST
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See below.
I was being ironical. – TL
[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.
by timlacy on
Dec 14, 2008 8:02 PM EST
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sorry
well played
tremendous indeed
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Dec 14, 2008 10:23 PM EST
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Obviously?
There’s really no reason to believe the bullpen will be even as good as it was last year. Look at the subtractions and the additions. Even if Farnsworth/HoRam/Waechter are better than everyone expects them to be, they’re still not as good as Nunez/RamRam.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on
Dec 14, 2008 3:27 PM EST
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My "obviously" was...
…a play on doublestix’s post a few ahead of mine.
Nothing is obvious in pitching. Period. Soria could easily be a little worse than expected even if our additions are better than we think. This is part of the beauty of baseball. – TL
[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.
by timlacy on
Dec 14, 2008 8:01 PM EST
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Wow, we tendered Jimmy Gobble?
I know he wasn’t as bad as his numbers indicate, but man, I would have guessed you could non-tender him and sign him to a lesser deal and if he walks, he walks and you have Mahay and Musser as your lefty relievers with HoRam also a possibility as well as the numerous replacement level lefty relievers available on waivers all the time.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Dec 14, 2008 11:01 AM EST
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Jimmy Gobble

as good as lighting your money on fire
Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.
by wildthang on
Dec 14, 2008 5:59 PM EST
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I don't see what Bale's role on this team is
Assuming HoRam ends up in the pen, (please) we have plenty of lefties. And I’d rather have Peralta than a 3rd lefty anyway.
by raefzilla on
Dec 14, 2008 11:04 AM EST
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Mahay
I think a lot of us were a little surprised Mahay wasn’t flipped last summer. During this offseason it seems like every transaction has resulted in at least a few people speculating we would flip them at the deadline, including Farns, Jacobs, Crisp. But, the other speculation has been that Moore thinks and wants to contend this year. So, I guess it’s going to depend. If we’re anywhere near the mix in July do you think he’ll flip people? Probably not – even though he should.
And, I’m very surprised at Gobble. I would have dumped him and kept Peralta (minda’s experience not withstanding). I was also not impressed at all by Musser.
by kabrink on
Dec 14, 2008 11:06 AM EST
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as to the vote
For me, not being a stathead, it is really hard to tell if we’re improving the pen or not. However, for me, the last two years of the pen turned out better than I expected but that’s partly due to years and years of Royal cynicism, disappointment, and doubt. I’m hoping that DM can do it again and surprise us to the upside – especially since it’s more expensive now. Unfortunately, here comes that cynicism and doubt again. Most high priced things have tended to disappoint in the Royal’s past. Meche being the recent bright light.
One of the biggest problems last year was the streakiness. If the 2 really bad streaks could simply be replaced by even typical wishy washy .400 ball the season would have been much improved. Unfortunately, how do you evaluate the reasons when a whole team goes bad and eliminate such streakiness.
by kabrink on
Dec 14, 2008 11:19 AM EST
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I wouldn't at all be surprised if there was
significant dropoff in bullpen performance. Both due to the acquisition of Farnsworth and just natural regression to the mean. I’d explain what I mean more, but I need to study for my final and just posting this is making me aggravated with myself for procrastinating.
Later people.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on
Dec 14, 2008 11:36 AM EST
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I only have one this year,
but I have multiple essays due this week. And of course that one final is in the class where my grade is right on the borderline between and A and a B+. Grrrrrr.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on
Dec 14, 2008 1:45 PM EST
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Take the B
the extra work for the A isn’t worth it.
Kansas City Royals: your 2006 and 2007 NL Central champions!
by mazoboom on
Dec 14, 2008 2:21 PM EST
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Of course it is.
Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.
by NHZ on
Dec 14, 2008 5:28 PM EST
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Congratulations!
You passed Fighting Peer Pressure 101!
Kansas City Royals: your 2006 and 2007 NL Central champions!
by mazoboom on
Dec 14, 2008 5:52 PM EST
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I've been doing it all semester :P
I have more than one friend who is completely screwed right now. Now I’m a slacker, yea, but a slacker who does his work.
Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.
by NHZ on
Dec 14, 2008 6:22 PM EST
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The grade might matter
a little bit for your first job but never for another job. It will matter a little for grad school if that’s in the future. Otherwise, grab a beer with us and read some posts.
by kabrink on
Dec 14, 2008 2:37 PM EST
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I think Carlos Rosa is every bit capable of putting up Leo Nunez-like numbers, next season. I told Greg Schaum that, when all is said and done, Rosa could very well be our primary setup man. His two pitches – and command – are that good in a limited role. We have many options, but we had borderline dominance last year from several men. Ramirez won’t be replaced, Tejeda will be lucky to put up 2008 numbers for an entire 2009, Mahay won’t replicate last year, and Farnsworth will likely be a little better than Yabuta or Peralta. Bullpens are volatile, but on paper, no way our 2009 bullpen beats last year’s.
by Royals Nation on
Dec 14, 2008 4:38 PM EST
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Clueless as to where you get the idea
That Mahay and Tejeda will regress.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on
Dec 14, 2008 4:59 PM EST
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Well, looking at their histories
….I’d say Mahay will regress to ERA of 3.5-4, especially given his age, and Tejeda was unproven until last year.
by Royals Nation on
Dec 14, 2008 6:00 PM EST
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fair enough
I don’t think Mahay will regress though…I don’t think there’s anything that suggest he will either. I bet he puts up a similar season…
You could cite his FIP I guess, but at some point you have to realize the guy just regularly posts better ERA’s than he does FIP’s. His ERA has been better than his FIP 5 of his last 6 years.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on
Dec 14, 2008 6:11 PM EST
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that's true
but I was looking earlier today, and it seems in general that his K rate, FIP, tRA, xFIP etc. are declining, as well as his RA performance. I think he’ll still be good, but I think it’s a long shot that he’ll be better next year. He is getting up there in age
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Dec 14, 2008 10:25 PM EST
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Question
How do you calculate xFIP? Expected FIP, but….how?
by Royals Nation on
Dec 15, 2008 3:01 AM EST
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I can't give you the formula
But it basically adjusts the FIP for what it would have been if the player had neutral HR/FB luck (approximately 11%). Here is how Hardball Times describes xFIP:
Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. This is an experimental stat that adjusts FIP and “normalizes” the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly. Theoretically, this should be a better predicter of a pitcher’s future ERA.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on
Dec 15, 2008 3:08 AM EST
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Very much agreed on Rosa, but not Tejeda
Tejeda is very much capable of putting up Leo Nunez-like numbers in 2009. He put up Leo Nunez-like numbers in 2008. Their advanced pitching metrics (like tRA) were very similar. Tejeda is one of these hard-throwing pitchers with a limited pitch complement who are horribly overexposed as a starter, but make good relievers. I think he’s likely to remain a strikeout machine and a good reliever.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on
Dec 14, 2008 5:04 PM EST
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I Voted "Slightly
Worse", but that was based solely on my advanced “raWAGxp+” metric.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on
Dec 14, 2008 5:18 PM EST
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I'd be thrilled, if that were the case
Looking at the upsides of some of our pitchers:
- Tejeda, who an argument could be made has already reached it),
-Carlos Rosa,
- Julio Pimentel (who will likely spent the majority of 2009 in AA or AAA but, in a bind, has a strong enough repertoire, IMO, to be a ground-ball specialist NOW as a reliever)
Considering Gobble wouldn’t even have to improve to be an absolute asset in a particular role, It may compensate for faulty contracts like Farnsworth and possible regressions from the Ron Mahays of the world. Still, given the likely leverage of situations he will be placed under, Farnsworth actually makes our bullpen worse, especially if James’ and Marcel’s predictions hold up. I think the Farnsworth contract (and HoRam contract – if he’s placed in the starters’ role) has given the fans some negative connotations about our ’pen. Sure, signing Farnsworth was a mistake, but there are still plenty of options available, I think. Good options. Still…..why, Dayton?
by Royals Nation on
Dec 15, 2008 3:07 AM EST
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Agreed on the vast majority of what you said
Still, given the likely leverage of situations he will be placed under, Farnsworth actually makes our bullpen worse, especially if James’ and Marcel’s predictions hold up.
I don’t think Hillman handles a bullpen exceptionally well (his consistent misuse of Gobble comes to mind), but one good thing about him is that he doesn’t get locked into set bullpen roles. When pitchers are doing well, they get more high leverage situations. When they are pitching poorly, the don’t get those situations as much. I’m sure Farnsworth will be the #1 RH setup man when the season starts. But if his actual performance is as poor as his projections, I don’t think Hillman will continue to run him out there in higher leverage situations. He’ll give the ball to Tejeda or Rosa or someone else.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on
Dec 15, 2008 3:13 AM EST
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agreed...
He does play the hot hand in the 7th/8th innings. Seemed like he always used Mahay in those situations early in the year when he was pitching well, but once he started to struggle late in the year…he wasn’t seeing the mound nearly as much.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on
Dec 15, 2008 4:16 AM EST
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Hillman did some good things with the pen.
What he didn’t do well was..
1. Bringing in a reliever when a starter had the lead in the fifth inning (qualify for win stat)
2. Bringing in Soria in high leverage situations.
3. Not using Gobble as a LOOGY
I think that Hillman can learn to use Gobble correctly.
I am less hopefull on the other two.
The trade off being that pitchers have to be pretty confident that Hillman was going to let them get thier counting stats. Hillman also did a nice job in replacing pitchers at the start of innings when he could (which is why he used Gobbles incorrectly I guess).
Go Royals!
by BabyBlues on
Dec 15, 2008 1:55 PM EST
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All I have to say
is I’m happy my s/n still has relevance for another season.
by I need more Esteban on
Dec 14, 2008 5:21 PM EST
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What did you guys think the bullpen for last year was going to look like BEFORE the season?
Don’t lie. I wasn’t around so I’m not sure. But I think this pen will be better going into the year. There is obviously more depth and some proven players than last years going into the year.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on
Dec 14, 2008 6:27 PM EST
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I thought the 2008 bullpen would be good, but probably not as good as it turned out to be
Unfortunately, the statistical evidence supported a contention that the 2008 bullpen would be at least pretty good. The statistical evidence is considerably uglier for the likely 2009 bullpen.
There is obviously more depth
There is? I certainly don’t think so.
and some proven players than last years going into the year.
Yes, there are more pitchers for the 2009 bullpen who are “proven.” Unfortunately those additions have mostly proven that they suck. I don’t say that flippantly. Look at the track record of Farnsworth, HoRam and Waechter. Sure, they are proven pitchers, the same way that TPJ is a proven shortstop.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on
Dec 14, 2008 6:41 PM EST
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Yea, I don't think most were surprised the bullpen would be good last year
Maybe at just how good they were, but I think most felt we had a solid pen going into the year.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Dec 14, 2008 10:44 PM EST
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I was much more bullish on Yabuta than I am on Farnsworth, that's for sure
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by marbotty on
Dec 15, 2008 8:58 AM EST
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and we know how Yabuta turned out...
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by marbotty on
Dec 15, 2008 8:58 AM EST
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No mention
of Ho-Ram? He’s in the bullpen mix as well
by GoBabies!! on
Dec 14, 2008 6:45 PM EST
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Yeah, definitely
Unfortunately, that’s the best case scenario for him. So if HoRam doesn’t make the rotation, I bet he’s likely the long reliever, leaving no room for whom? Would the Royals really go with four lefties in the bullpen?
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on
Dec 14, 2008 6:49 PM EST
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I wish to hell they would have been smart enough to non-tender him then
They’d better be smart enough to cut him while he is still only due 1/6th of his arbitration award.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on
Dec 14, 2008 10:23 PM EST
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When is that deadline
Isn’t it like March?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Dec 14, 2008 10:44 PM EST
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Why I voted "much worse"
In the words of everyone’s favorite Royals analyst:
IF IT AIN’T BROKE, DON’T FIX IT
But seriously, folks… I do feel like a should explain, since I don’t think it was just despair over the Farns contract. And what’s the “line” between a “little” worse and a “much” worse? To be fair, no one should really give a hoot what I think. I won’t say “this will be short” (line), but I was planning on doing a longer Fanpost about the 2008 bullpen anyway. I’ll leave out a lot of the reasoning for leverage and stuff — suffice it to say, you have to include it to get an idea of bullpen value, particulalry when comparing to non-bullpen pitchers and position players.
1. Even if the bullpen had remained the same, it was so good last year that there would have been some regression anyway. Four things before I go any further.
- All numbers, unless otherwise noted, are leveraged runs saved above replacement.
- While FIP itself isn’t totally superior to ERA, I do think it is better, particularly for relievers.
- In 2008, apparently the runs:wins conversion was about 10:1.
- I don’t really discuss Tejada and Rosa, because it isn’t clear what roles are slated for them at the moment, given the recent signings
- tRA is my favorite pitching stat, but for various reasons (including that I don’t have access good projection system for it yet) I don’t include it here.
Last year, according to my estimations of leveraged ERA runs above replacement, here are how some of the Royals the top relievers did:
Soria +41
Mahay +9
Ramirez +22
Bale +5
Nunez +8
HoRam +5
Yeah… Soria was f-ing awesome with the ERA. But as I said, FIP is better for relievers in particalar, so here are those leveraged figures.
Soria +19
Mahay +4
RamRam +20
Bale +2
Nunez +4
HoRam +4
Still awesome. yes, Team RamRod outpitched Soria accoring to FIP (also tRA), and it’s not quite as close as this makes it look in terms of sheer pitching, since Soria had higher leverage situations. BTW, Nunez achieved his parity with Mahay in less innings and with less leverage…
So that’s an outstanding ‘pen. But I think there are obvious signs, without giving the list of projections, that there would be regression. If you l ike ERA, will, Soria’s FIP and ERA are way too far apart for him to to regress to his FIP by at least around 10 leveraged runs next season. RamRod’s projection also have him being a win worse. Mahay is older and declining. Nunez is projected as slightly worse.
so that’s the short version of why I think that, even if everything had stayed the same, the Royals 2009 bullpen would have still been good, but a “little worse” than 2008’s.
2. Why I think it will actually be much worse. Now, some people will say that I should be comparing the new guys’ 2009 projections with the old buys 2009 projections. Yeah, OK, but the exercsie here is comparing the actual 2008 bullpen with the projected 2009 bullpen. Suffice it to say, the projections for Ramirez, Nunez, and Bale (unless he’s been resigned while I didn’t know it) collectively are better than those for Farnsy, HoRam, and Waechter.
So, why so I say “much worse?” Here are the leveraged FIP-runs saved above replacement by the Team Ramrod again:
Team RamRod +20
Bale +2
Nunez +4
TOTAL = 26. That’s about 2.6 wins.
Now, Marcel has all the Planet Express dudes projected belew replacement level, and that’s even before leverage takes it’s toll… SO that’s a at least a 3 win “much worse” before even combined with an expected regression from Soria, Mahay, el. al.
But let’s use more “generous” projections such as those analyzed in our discussion of the ZiPS projections for the new guys.
There, I used everything to the advantage of the pr0f3ss0r and his crew. I even gave them all quasi-setup leverage indexes, despite the fact than they wont’ get them. I won’t even round (which hurt’s guys like Nunez in my calculations above). here are the figures:
Waechter +0.35
HoRam +2.49
Farnsy +0.18
TOTAL = +3.52 leveraged runs above replacement
So, being generous towards the projectios for the new guys, that’s a bit more than a 22 run decline from three dudes who they are apparently replacing. All in the expected regressions from “uhn-freaking believable " fro Soria, the aging of Mahay, and so on, I think "much worse.” is pretty fair.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Dec 15, 2008 11:38 AM EST
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i'd buy the aging of Mahay
if he hadn’t started pitching when he was like 25.
he’s still got a fresh arm.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on
Dec 15, 2008 12:58 PM EST
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either way
while he’s an important pitcher to the Royals, even if he maintains the performance level of last year, I still tihnk the other pieces are going to be worse
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Dec 15, 2008 1:05 PM EST
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I think that Hillman going with the hot hand and...
giving relivers the ball at the start of innings tends to generate more leveraged runs above replacement average then other managers. I think that the Royals pen will be about as good as last years because Hillman will have plenty of reliever to find the guys that are throwing well at any given time in the season. I don’t think Farnsworth is going to be allowed to keep failing and losing games no matter what he is paid. It didn’t work that way for Mayhay or Yabuta and they were being paid about what Farnsworth is.
Go Royals!
by BabyBlues on
Dec 15, 2008 2:09 PM EST
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the leverage helps Planet Express in the above analysis
since I assumed it would consistently stay at 1.2 when I did that analysis. Nunez ended up with a below 1 pLI last year, so it hurt him.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Dec 15, 2008 2:13 PM EST
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I said "slightly worse"
I think even if the bullpen staff was exactly the same in 2009 as it was in 2008, there would’ve been a slight dropoff — just because they were outstanding last year.
However, we’ve replaced two of the really good relievers with 3 mediocre ones.
by Top Ramen on
Dec 15, 2008 12:16 PM EST
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Slightly Worse
The talent level is not the same in the bp as it is has been the past two years.
Mahay
At this point we don’t know how Mahay will recover from his injury. It’s not like that is an easily shaken off injury.
Gobble
There is no proof that Hillman will use him correctly.
Farnsworth
Just based on the past few years stats he can’t really compare to what RamRam/Nunez or Greinke have done over the past couple years coming out of the pen.
HoRam
Not too concerned with him hopefully he and McClure can have a repeat performance. If nothing else he is a nice long reliever to have in the pen for bad Bannister/Hoch/Davies games. Every bullpen needs a guy like that and looking at the other guys with the exception of Bale I don’t think you would want anyone else filling that role especially if Tejeda turns into a 7th or 8th inning guy.
Bale
I don’t understand why KC picked him up and what role he will serve. Maybe he is Mahay/Gobble injury insurance.
Waechter
Hopefully he continues his Rh dominance from ‘08.
Soria
Can’t really expect him to put the same numbers up.
The encouraging sign is that with keeping Yimmy and the signing of Waechter maybe just maybe GMDM has convinced Hillman to use more Righty-Lefty matchups. He crushed the bp last year by overexposing Yimmy.
It’s really a crapshoot there is no way any of us could’ve expected RamRam or even Soria to perform the way they did last year. Soria should regress slightly but if Hillman would use matchups better the bullpen could actually be equal to last year if they get a few better 5th thru 7th innings. Any addition of Rosa either in the bullpen or the rotation is gonna help the talent level on the backend greatly.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
by kcscoliny on
Dec 15, 2008 1:18 PM EST
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One thing to ponder
Moore always tries to put together a 10-12 man bullpen staff, with only 7 guys in KC and the rest in Omaha. That’s not a bad idea, considering what pitcher injury rates can be some years.
What I’m getting at is that I’m wondering if player options status factors into these decisions. Which reliever candidates still have options remaining? I know Yabuta does, and I think Gobble MIGHT?
So, if somebody like Gobble has options, but Bale does not, then Moore may be optiong for the slightly less talented pitcher who has options over the slightly more talented pitcher who does not.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
by loyal2sdad on
Dec 15, 2008 1:38 PM EST
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Meant to add
that may explain why Rosa appears headed for Omaha to start the season. Moore may have decided that even though Rosa is clearly one of the 7 best reliever candidates in the system, it serves the organization as a whole better of they utilize his option years by making him the “I-29” guy this season; i.e., every time a reliever goes on the DL, Rosa is the first guy recalled.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
by loyal2sdad on
Dec 15, 2008 1:41 PM EST
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Won't the Royals carry 8 relievers
I think the writer was referring to the 7-man non-Soria bullpen. So if that projected bullpen is correct, there are still 2 spots left.
by kcdc1 on
Dec 15, 2008 2:05 PM EST
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a 13-player pitching staff????
ugh
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Dec 15, 2008 2:06 PM EST
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no chance
there’s going to be a bench crunch as it is, even if they cut Gloady (which i do think will happen). i’m thinking…
Shealy/Jacobs/Butler (two starting, one on the pine)
German
Maier
B. Pena/Buck/House (whoever the backup catcher is)
Backup SS
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on
Dec 15, 2008 2:55 PM EST
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I don't think Maier will make the 25-man roster
Teams do tend to favor the 13-player pitching staff, but yeah, if you keep German, there’s no room. I think it’s likely that German will be traded before Opening Day. The real question is how do you get rid of Gload?
by kcdc1 on
Dec 15, 2008 3:04 PM EST
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Gload

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Dec 15, 2008 3:13 PM EST
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I just about tripped over my keyboard in my haste
to recommend this post.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
by loyal2sdad on
Dec 15, 2008 3:50 PM EST
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re: maier
Probably depends if Teabags is traded…and if he is…Maier will make the team.
Gload? Release him. I don’t see how he fits on the team AT ALL.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on
Dec 15, 2008 3:14 PM EST
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13-man pitching staff?
Why would you think he’d do that? It’s very rare for any team to do that, especially for more than a week or two due to injury to a position player. A 13-man pitching staff means a 3-man bench. That just isn’t workable. I don’t see any reason to believe there’ll be a 13-man pitching staff.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on
Dec 15, 2008 3:26 PM EST
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I would assume, if no further moves are made,
they would go with the standard 12 man pitching staff, leaving only 4 backup position players.
Teahen is currently the 4th OF (releasing Gathright sorta seals that Teahen won’t be traded, I think)
Buck is currently the backup catcher
German is the backup middle infielder
Whichever among Shealy/Butler/Jacobs is not starting at 1B/DH on a given night
That’s all there’s room for. Gload almost certainly has to be traded at some point – only alternative, barring any DL moves coming out of spring, would be to send Butler or Shealy to Omaha, because those two have options remaining.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
by loyal2sdad on
Dec 15, 2008 3:49 PM EST
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This is why I think German needs to be traded
Bench
Buck
Teahen
Shealy
German
No one on that list can effectively backup SS. So I think German should be traded, TPJ should be released and a decent defensive SS should be acquired. There are many that would be cheap.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on
Dec 15, 2008 3:53 PM EST
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the Tigers got Everett for $1M
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Dec 15, 2008 3:59 PM EST
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Please remember, these are not my words:
Supposedly, Callaspo has been working at shortstop during a good part of his winter league play. I’m guessing this is at the beheast of the Royals, with the idea being if they do nothing else, and Aviles does need a day off or is injured, Callaspo could be slid over to SS and German to 2B, thus mitigating the backup SS concern.
Again, I’m paraphrasing something coming from the Royals – I don’t agree with them on this, as that would be a truly atrocious defensive middle infield, even if rarely deployed.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
by loyal2sdad on
Dec 15, 2008 4:44 PM EST
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Works for me
I’d be happy with Callaspo backing up SS and German backup in 2B, 3B and the OF when necessary. Callaspo isn’t a long-term solution if Aviles were to go down with an injury, but I think it would be fine for his off days. Yes, Callaspo’s defense at SS is fairly poor, but he’d also hit a lot better than the utility IFer who the Royals could bring into backup SS.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on
Dec 15, 2008 5:00 PM EST
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sans another acquisition
that’s the arrangement I favor
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Dec 15, 2008 5:51 PM EST
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But...
Everett probably doesn’t sign unless there is an expectation he starts, which would not be the case in KC…
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
by loyal2sdad on
Dec 15, 2008 4:40 PM EST
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Everett is what Pena SHOULD be,
but Pena can’t even hit as poorly as Everett, and Pena’s vaunted defense isn’t even close to Everett’s, which, IMHO, is quite good. (subjective – I haven’t looked at his defensive metrics).
You are on to something, NY – Pena not being released during the weekend purge speaks volumes about the Royals organizational middle infield depth.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
by loyal2sdad on
Dec 15, 2008 4:47 PM EST
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everett was unbelievable on the metrics
this year he was hurt and the shoulder was screwing him up… yet bUZR has him at +10 runs/150 — Pena’s career average.
He was about +24/150 the two years before that.
Here’s an awesome year from a different source: plus/minus had him 43 (34 runs) in 2006. And that’s not even prorated.
How great is that? Well, I doubt Everett is anywhere close to being a +34 defender now, but let’s say he was. Marcels says he’s a -32 hitter. So that’s +2 runs. + 7.5 for being a SS = 9.5. +2 for NL replacement level = 29.5 runs above replacement.
Yeah… a below replacement level hitting SS with defense that good is almost as good as DDJ was this year… and I’m a DDJ fan.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Dec 15, 2008 5:59 PM EST
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The complete lack of organizational depth at middle IF...
ESPECIALLY competent shortstops, is the Royals’ number one issue.
"Quit trying to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring...besides that they're fascist. Throw some groundballs. It's more democratic."
by Sweep_the_Leg on
Dec 16, 2008 12:21 PM EST
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We've got to get Buck off the bench
Worthless spot there. Get in a fresh young guy that needs to learn. Buck has shown what he is in the bigs.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on
Dec 15, 2008 7:51 PM EST
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The Royals don't have any fresh, young catchers who need to learn
Even decent catching prospects are in short supply in baseball. The only decent catching prospects that the Royals have are in the low minors. None of Pena, House or Tupman is a young catcher with upside.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on
Dec 15, 2008 7:55 PM EST
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Bullpen depth and injuries
Numbers in December always look good until the players start playing. KC having too many effective pitchers really isn’t an issue. Injuries and lack of effectiveness will sort out several of the players. Starting a few at Omaha isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Hochevar began at Omaha last year. Bannister has to be effective. The bullpen is no sure thing with Waechter, Peralta, Gobble, Tejeda, Rosa, – they could all be awful. Really like Rosa in the pen more that the rotation at this point. Don’t think H. Ramirez will be better than the 08 rotation guys so he’ll be in the pen.
My prediction for the 09 whipping boy is Kyle Farnsworth. He follows in a great tradition of Ross Gload, TPJ, and Jason Larue. It is the Angel Berroa memorial award – the Royal player who the board hates the most/complains about the most.
by daveyork on
Dec 15, 2008 10:01 PM EST
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Numbers in December always look good until the players start playing.
I don’t think the numbers look so good right now.
KC having too many effective pitchers really isn’t an issue. Injuries and lack of effectiveness will sort out several of the players.
Unfortunately, I don’t think they have enough genuinely good pitchers.
Starting a few at Omaha isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
For many of them, Omaha is not an option. Rosa and Musser have options left. I think that’s about it.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on
Dec 15, 2008 11:44 PM EST
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