Nelson non-tendered by Marlins

Just a little news about a favorite player of mine. I always kind of like the guy...But I love these two quotes from the article:

1. Joe Nelson went 3-1 with a 2.00 ERA in 59 appearances with the Marlins last season.

2. Working within a tight budget, Florida was offering about $650,000 for Nelson, who might be able to top $800,000 on the open market.

Some PLEASE explain to me WHY?!? the royals just shelled out 9.25 MILLION to Farnsworth?! I didnt think that deal was that bad till I saw this.

also it mentions that Waechter is a friend of Nelsons and that the Royals are a leading candidate to sign him.

about 3 years ago RoyalPug 55 comments 0 recs |

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I want him

I’d give him a $1M guaranteed plus incentives in a second. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that he’ll be at least pretty good in 2009 and considerably better than Farnsworth. But he’s not a “power reliever.” I don’t understand Dayton’s new fascination with power arms. Nelson’s fastball-changeup combination makes him a strikeout machine. Results matter. I don’t care how you get them. If you can get results with a 90 mph fastball and a great change, then I want you in my bullpen. If you have a 95 mph fastball and your results suck, I don’t want to have anything to do with you.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Dec 14, 2008 2:57 AM EST reply actions 2 recs

Yeah, the funny thing is, for a guy that isn't a power reliever....

He has over 1K per inning over his entire career. Yeah, he throws 90mph, but that 90mph gets swings and misses. Why? Devastating offspeed stuff – see, Joakim Soria. If Nelson can keep the walks down, yeah, he’s going to put up a good 2009 for somebody. He’s not a 1-2-3 inning guy, but he is a 1IP 1H 2K type of guy.

realistically speaking

by slayor on Dec 14, 2008 6:37 AM EST up reply actions

Agree 100%

And it makes the Farnsworth signing look even dumber.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 14, 2008 11:02 AM EST up reply actions

What's replacement level for GMs?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Dec 14, 2008 1:48 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs

NY is right

Just look at Moyer and Wakefield. Granted they aren’t relievers but they are obviously fairly effective to have lasted so long. They can barely throw harder than 40 mph or so!

Early in the offseason Rany advocated a knuckleballer (Haeger) but he went to San Diego. He’s been non-tendered as well. What do people think of him? I kind of like the idea of a weird knuckleballer on our staff.

I know he’s a right hander which probably goes against him for us. Also, he has some horrible ERA numbers but I keep hearing ERA doesn’t matter – or is at least a poor measure.

by kabrink on Dec 14, 2008 2:50 PM EST up reply actions

Haeger is worth a good minor league contract

Or perhaps a split contract. I don’t think Haeger is going to ever succeed in the majors, but I’d be willing to make a small investment (but still overbidding other organizations) to see if something develops.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Dec 14, 2008 3:30 PM EST up reply actions

Ducky insurance

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Dec 14, 2008 5:10 PM EST up reply actions

it's all about the tools with dayton....

and for a relief pitcher MPH is the biggest tool

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Dec 14, 2008 5:44 PM EST up reply actions

And I guess that's why the Royals signed the biggest tool on the FA list

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Dec 14, 2008 6:45 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs

Well,

Some PLEASE explain to me WHY?!? the royals just shelled out 9.25 MILLION to Farnsworth?! I didnt think that deal was that bad till I saw this.

There is no logical reason. BUT HE THROWS HARD AND WE CAN FIX HIM.

I would not at all be against picking up Nelson.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Dec 14, 2008 8:08 AM EST reply actions

I am dead against it

i like Nelson, but if Farns got 2/9.5 or whatever, I think Nelson’s probably worth K-Rod money.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Dec 14, 2008 1:48 PM EST up reply actions

Well yeah,

but if Kyle Farnsworth is getting 2/9.25….I think most people know that’s not what he’s actually worth. Nelson might come cheaper because him being non-tendered and his journeyman career path.

Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.

by NHZ on Dec 14, 2008 2:13 PM EST up reply actions

just trying to make a joke

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Dec 14, 2008 2:21 PM EST up reply actions

I thought so,

but I can’t tell if you’re actually against picking Nelson up. Are you?

Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.

by NHZ on Dec 14, 2008 5:29 PM EST up reply actions

no -- I'll consider anyone for the right price

I’m a huge fan of cheap bullpens. that was the hope after this past season’s success — not just happiness that DMGM could put together a good, cheap bullpen, but that his skill in that would spread to other areas.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Dec 14, 2008 5:35 PM EST up reply actions

no I would favor Nelson if he came cheap

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Dec 14, 2008 5:36 PM EST up reply actions

As would I.

I really wish Moore had at least waited past the non-tender deadline to decide on bullpen options. The Farnsworth thing really has me down.

Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.

by NHZ on Dec 14, 2008 6:21 PM EST up reply actions

I think NY said it on a post a couple days ago

I think he’s probably right, that for some reason DM kind of freaked and thought nobody was going to be available.

by kabrink on Dec 14, 2008 8:54 PM EST up reply actions

Kind of like the kneejerk reaction he had with Guillen last year.

Like a kid with some money in his pocket and afraid the worst could happen———-he wouldn’t get to spend it.

by Steve Hovley on Dec 14, 2008 9:37 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I sure am glad he didn't save that money

think about the horror of Milton Bradley getting signed this year, then laying only 95 games for the Royals (and putting up about 3 WAR inthe process)

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Dec 14, 2008 10:12 PM EST up reply actions

i bet milton plays a full season

and dominates, ala chad pennington this year

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by marbotty on Dec 15, 2008 9:02 AM EST up reply actions

He'll play a full season?

Is he going to make a deal with the devil? Or has he found some miracle elixir.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Dec 15, 2008 3:28 PM EST up reply actions

okay, 145 games

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by marbotty on Dec 16, 2008 12:18 AM EST up reply actions

He's never done that in his career, and yet he's going to do that in 2009?

Again, where did he find the magic pill, and where can I get one? This is the number of games played per season for Bradley in his career:

2000 42
2001 77
2002 98
2003 101
2004 141
2005 75
2006 96
2007 61
2008 126

For his career, the average is 91 games. Over the last three years, the average is 94 games. HIs career high was five years ago. I know you’re a big Bradley fan. But let’s not pretend that he’s suddenly going to turn into something that he’s never been.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Dec 16, 2008 1:26 AM EST up reply actions

After reviewing his history, I think I'm the one who has found the magic pill

Cuz my prediction looks crazy.

Still, I put very little stock in the idea of individuals being “injury prone.” I do believe there are people who are lazy. Maybe that’s the case with Bradley.

I’ve tried to find a comprehensive injury report for Bradley to see what has ailed him over the last few years — I know he had a torn ACL which more or less prevented him from playing full seasons in 2007 and 2008. I don’t believe that is the sort of injury that is lingering/recurrent — so if he is healthy, I don’t see why he couldn’t play something close to a full season.

I could be wrong about the nature of the ACL, and unfortunately, I can’t find what his other injuries were. So, maybe I’m just wishcasting here.

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by marbotty on Dec 16, 2008 6:55 AM EST up reply actions

substitute a "cr" for the "l"

i loves me some Milton Bradley, too, though.

For some reason unknown to everyone but me and God, and I forgot my version…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Dec 16, 2008 8:24 AM EST up reply actions

Still, I put very little stock in the idea of individuals being "injury prone." I do believe there are people who are lazy. Maybe that’s the case with Bradley.

Yeah, I don’t know either way. I think some players are injury prone and some don’t take care of themselves and some are unlucky. But I do think that injury history should be thought of as a tool or as a stat, whichever floats your boat. Just like with other performance stats, past performance tells us something about what we should expect in the future. If a guy has had one or two flukey injuries over nine years, then one shouldn’t expect more flukey injuries. But when a guy misses significant time to injury in every year of his career, one should expect that to continue.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Dec 16, 2008 1:45 PM EST up reply actions

me too

as I’ve said elswhere, while Moore still might prove himself to be a good evaluator of major league talent in general, the signing really is disturbing because it shows how far off he is in terms of how any team (but particularly a team in a market situation like the Royals) can compete on a budget. There’s no team that can pay market value for every win above replacement, much less overpay by 10+ times (a generous estimation of the Professor’s deal). And the Royals don’t have enough talent under pre-arb club control to do it even once, much less twice (Guillen, Farns… I’m being nice by not including Ho-Ram 2009 and Mahay).

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Dec 14, 2008 10:15 PM EST up reply actions

your description of Moore sounds like how I would describe Baird

uh-oh

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by marbotty on Dec 15, 2008 9:00 AM EST up reply actions

no

it does not.

i think you don’t have a clue as to how bad BairdBrain was.

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Dec 15, 2008 1:11 PM EST up reply actions

So here's whats going to happen this year

(I don’t necesarrily want this)

Soria gets hit by a line drive in the shin and goes on the 15 DL during our playoff push in late September. 12 games left. Farnsworth becomes the closer, goes 6-6 in save opps and the Royals win the Central!

Farnsworth becoms the closer and Soria goes to the rotation for the next season.

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Dec 14, 2008 10:54 AM EST reply actions

I want this

I’ll take a division title, thank you very much

by raefzilla on Dec 14, 2008 11:06 AM EST up reply actions

Boo-yah bitches!

Soria to the rotation AND a playoff berth!!!

Give me!! I WANT!!! I WANT!!! I WANT!!!

by AxDxMx on Dec 15, 2008 1:05 AM EST up reply actions

According to Joe Frisaro over at Marlins.com

The Royals are one of the teams deemed as a possible destination for Joe Nelson

Linkage

by Royal from Queens on Dec 14, 2008 12:26 PM EST reply actions

Next week

When we sign Joe Nelson & Rafael Furcal…
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Anybody want to wait in line with me for playoff tickets?

by GoBabies!! on Dec 14, 2008 10:17 PM EST reply actions

If that happens, I'll buy your playoff tickets for you.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Dec 14, 2008 10:20 PM EST up reply actions

Daniel Cabrera, 3/15 guaranteed with performance incentives if he ever goes 2 innings without issuing a walk

you heard it here first

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Dec 14, 2008 10:21 PM EST up reply actions

As bad as I think some of these moves are

they are still getting us closer aren’t they? DCab is a huge improvement over Banny. That’s a risk I’m willing to take. I’ll wait in line with you GoBabies. We’ll have standing room only in the fountain seating and we’ll die of exposure during the 3 hour game in freezing conditions, but it will be worth it!

by AxDxMx on Dec 15, 2008 1:07 AM EST up reply actions

DCab is a huge improvement over Banny.

No, he isn’t.

As bad as I think some of these moves are
they are still getting us closer aren’t they?

Are the signings of Farnsworth, HoRam and Waechter getting us closer? No, they aren’t. Is the Jacobs trade getting us closer? No. Did the Crisp trade get us closer, probably, but not by much.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Dec 15, 2008 1:36 AM EST up reply actions

One more thing

Nobody wants the Royals to get into the playoffs more than me. But I’m not interested in deluding myself into thinking the Royals are close to contending when they aren’t. False hope gives rise to great disappointment. I prefer at least attempting to evaluate the team realistically. Unless some major improvements are made between now and opening day, nobody will be camping out for playoff tickets.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Dec 15, 2008 1:37 AM EST up reply actions

i dont think at present dcab is an improvement over banny...

but i think cabrera stands a better chance of being a decent starter from here on out than banny….banny is a 6th or 7th quality starter that every team needs to have stashed down in AAA

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Dec 15, 2008 2:26 AM EST up reply actions

We'll see if that's how Bannister ends up

His performance history is pretty mixed so far.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Dec 15, 2008 2:44 AM EST up reply actions

"DCab is a huge improvement over Banny."

I’m really not a Bannister supporter at this point, but there’s not much question that Bannister and his mediocre stuff that he can throw for strikes is a measurably better pitcher than Cabrera and his crappy control and declining fastball.

Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.

by NHZ on Dec 15, 2008 2:32 AM EST up reply actions

funny how the stats last year dont show banny as a measurably better pitcher

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Dec 15, 2008 3:18 AM EST up reply actions

It would be a big mistake to limit your evaluation of any player to one season of stats

And, if you’re looking at advanced metrics like FIP and tRA, Bannister was both a measurably better and a significantly better pitcher than Cabrera last year.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Dec 15, 2008 3:24 AM EST up reply actions