The middle infield debate
by kcdoc85 on Dec 15, 2008 12:14 AM EST
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PrintI know many people are questioning the Farnsworth and the Jacobs deals (myself included), but I stiIl think the more important discussion should center around the middle infield.
Questions:
- Will Mike Aviles experience the sophmore slump?
- Can his defense hold up at SS for a full season, or is his range/arm better suited for 2b?
- Is Aviles at SS and Callaspo at 2b a week defensive duo, and a liability up the middle. (I think so)
- Are the Royals serious about getting Furcal? Is this a mistake? Is he healthy?
- Where does shoring up the middle infield rank among the Royals offseason needs? Should our biggest offseason acquisition be a SS or 2b? Or should they be focusing more on pitching, power bats, or "OBP guys"?
Here is my take, I'm probably way off, but I think the middle infield is a huge concern for the Royals. Our strength (defensively and offensively) up the middle could be the difference between another last place finish or flirting with .500 (or dare I say...contending?). A good middle infield provides a lot of defensive stabilty, and should (on good teams) provide much needed "spark" (OBP, speed).
Aviles was great last year, but I'm worried about him slumping this year, as the league catches up to him. I do not think Callaspo has the defensive skills that the Royals need at 2b, especially when the skills at 1b are going to be very below average (Jacobs, Butler, Kila). I'd actually like to see Aviles at 2b, and see us sign a solid SS (Cabrera, Furcal, Eckstein, Nomar, Cora). If thats not possible, keep Aviles at SS and sign a 2b (Hudson, Kent, Miles, Uribe).
The other option is to make a trade. I really like Rickie Weeks (MIL) or Jack Wilson (PIT).
Part of me is excited about the possibility of signing Furcal, but another part of me is terrified about his health. And I really don't feel like listening to all the critics and negators reticule the Royals again for overpaying.
I do believe strongly that IF (big IF) Furcal is 100% healthy, and he can give us the ABs and numbers that he put up from 2000-2007, then he would be worth every penny that we spend. And if that were the case, the Royals would probably contend for the division. He is that much of an impact player. Yes he's 31, so is Hudson, Everett, Aaron Miles, Nick Punto, Orlando Cabrera is 34!, Cora is 33, Eckstein is 33, but nobody seems to be talking about their ages...hmm. And yes he's coming off back surgery. And yes, he worries me...
If the Royals sign Furcal to a big time contract (4 yr - 44 mil), DM will no doubt be eaten alive by the national media and pessimistic fans. He will basically be betting his job that Furcal will turn this franchise around. If Furcal flops, he will be DM's downfall, just as Sweeney was Alaird's.
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the problem with your solutions is that they just arent really upgrades for the most part....
eckstein, cora, nomar ? you really think those are better solutions than aviles? nomar doesnt suck, but he cannot even stay healthy when playing far less demanding positions like 3b and 1b. Jack Wilson is a terrible option…career ops of 78 with a 77 last year…that is downright awful.
you mentioned that nobody seems to be talking about all of those other guys’ ages….and there is a reason for that…b/c nobody is talking about them being any sort of solution to any sort of problem….i like the idea of furcal, but i dont think it is really necessary.
i also like the idea of weeks…however, he doesnt really mesh with your plan of improving the defense up the middle…he’s pretty terrible as a 2b…so bad that people are constantly talkking about moving him off the position into the outfield
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Dec 15, 2008 1:41 AM EST reply actions
the debate
1. Sign Furcal and move Aviles to second.
or
2. Do nothing and go with Aviles at SS and Callaspo at 2nd.
Pretty simple.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
those are my feelings exactly....
and honestly, i’d prefer option number 2…..
and maybe an adam dunn on the side
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Dec 15, 2008 2:23 AM EST up reply actions
Well, there are other choices too
It’s only that simple if one wants to make it that simple.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 15, 2008 2:42 AM EST up reply actions
sure...
but would you be fine with signing a mediocre player instead? i doubt it.
imo, you go for the guy who could legitimately make an impact, or don’t sign anyone at all. orlando hudson could make a similar impact, but i hate the idea of losing draft picks.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
I'm just saying there are multiple choices and some people would support many of them
You and I agree that any middle IF additions should be an impact player, or none at all. Others (possibly including Dayton Moore) do not agree. So I guess you are saying that the debate should be limited to those two options. And of course they key to those two options is whether the Royals have opened up enough payroll (trading Guillen) to make it possible.
And, as you mentioned, even if you agree that the only acquisitions that should be made to the middle IF are impact players, then there’s the whole issue of Hudson. Would it be better to sign Hudson than Furcal? If Furcal signs elsewhere, should the Royals then try to get Hudson, or just pass?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 15, 2008 3:06 AM EST up reply actions
i get what you are saying...we agree
In a vacuum, I’d probably take Hudson based strictly on value, because he’s probably a tad better offensively and will likely cost a tad less. But were not in a vacuum, so…
1. Hudson would cost a draft pick. The long term future, and hopefully success, of this organization will be built on draft picks and other amateur signings. We’ve had two excellent drafts in a row…we need to make it three next year and keeping the 2nd round pick will ensure that happens.
2. We have a couple of 2B prospects, one whom I have made clear I think will be a very good player, and I think he could absolutely race through the system.
3. What if Aviles falls off a cliff? Now, I doubt it will happen, but if it does, who plays shortstop? Pena? Luis Hernandez? Yikes! Can’t discount this possibility.
So I’d pass, yes. I’m very confident AC can post a high OBP and not make a fool of himself at 2B. His range is a bit lame, but he is sure handed and turns the double play well.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
My middle IF thoughts
1. Aviles’s OPS should go down, as benefited from a lot of batted ball luck. But his hitting should still be good for a SS.
2. I think his defense is sufficient for SS. Personally, I think he’s average or a little above average defensively at SS. A small sample of advanced defensive metrics say he’s better than that.
3. Aviles is a fine defensive SS. Callaspo is likely below average defensively. I don’t think it’s a major issue.
4. The Royals are serious about getting Furcal, but can only afford it if they trade Guillen and the vast majority of his contract. So getting Furcal is a huge longshot.
5. I don’t think the Royals need to focus “up the middle” or on a “big bat” or on “OBP guys.” The Royals need to upgrade in ways that improve the team. Every good FA remaining who might be affordable (if Guillen were traded) has significant positives and significant negatives. For instance:
Furcal – good hitting for his position, good but not great defense, back injury makes him risky, wants a four-year deal and his decline over that period would limit his value
Dunn – very good hitting, awful defense which significantly limits his value, players with his skillset typically decline earlier and quicker than average, so he could fall off a cliff any year now
Burrell – very good hitting, awful defense which significantly limits his value, his age means that he should start declining soon
Bradley – very good hitting, frequently injured so you don’t know how much playing time you’ll get out of him in any season, so fragile that he can’t play the OF full-time, major asshole who usually has problems with the manager and/or coaches and ends up getting suspended a lot (by his team and/or by MLB)
Hudson – good hitting for his position, but he has injury concerns, decline concerns due to his age, and in addition to his big contract, he’d cost the Royals a second round draft pick
I’d probably be ok with signing any of them for the right price for the right number of years. Of course they all have their pluses and their minuses. Each could help the Royals a lot, and each is inherently risky, particularly with a 3+ year deal, which they would probably all require.
I don’t agree with the contention that players “up the middle” are special and that it’s crucial that a team maximize offense and defense at those positions. What you want, ideally, is players who are good relative to their position. Callaspo is somewhat iffy. His defense is likely below average and his hitting is a big unknown. Can he maintain a high OBP? If so, his hitting would be a definite plus. Can he develop a bit more line drive power? Perhaps. But for all we know, he could hit .250/.300/.350 next year. Who knows. So I’d be happy to upgrade. Furcal would be nice (moving Aviles to 2B). Hudson would be nice, but his cost in dollars and the draft pick leaves me mostly uninterested.
The one thing that I feel sure about is that the Royals don’t need to sign anymore mediocrities. That means hell no to Cabrera, Nomar, Eckstein, Cora, Kent, Miles or Uribe. I’d rather stick with a younger mediocrity who has upside potential: Callaspo. Spending money to have one of those crappy players get regular playing time would be a waste of money and a waste of Callaspo’s potential. 2009 is not going to be a contending year. Unless we can get a genuinely good player who might help us for a few years, then use 2009 to determine how good Callaspo is. If he proves to be a poor player, then we’ll know it is something we have to address next offseason.
I’d be happy for the Royals to sign a good corner OFer for the right price as well, but it appears Moore has gotten the OF that he wants. Of course if they can trade Guillen, that would free up money for a better OFer, which is how I would prefer to use it. I don’t think Moore agrees with me though.
The immoderate moderator
KC won't get...
…Bradley because I’m pretty sure he’ll be with the Cubs soon.
I’d take Dunn or Burrell for a few years—-no more. – TL
[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.
Just to add something that everyone probably agrees with anyway
but remember that for any team, yes even the Yankees, but especially the Royals, the comparison of any two players to see which is better for the team isn’t complete without an analysis of their salary or likely salary relative to their on-field value.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
It seems to me...
that SS is by far the biggest, deepest, most glaring hole that the Royals have. I like Aviles there, I think his defense shouldn’t be a significant concern (if it actually IS a concern at all in the Royals’ FO), and I would expect him to slump slightly next year but still put up generally decent numbers.
The problem is that, lest we forget, before his miracle callup, the Royals were trotting TPJ out there every day. He’s STILL the only viable backup at SS that the Royals have (hence his continued presence on the roster). There are absolutely no propects in the Royals’ system that are even CLOSE to being ML-ready (if they’ll ever be productive ML players at all).
Bottom line, if Aviles goes down with any sort of injury or struglles mightily, as of right now, the only option is TPJ. And I’m sorry, but that just ISN’T an option to me. If you acquire a SS, then you can move Aviles over to 2B, and you should have average to very good defense up the middle. If Aviles goes down or struggles, in comes Callaspo. If the New SS (i.e. Furcal) goes down, which is certainly possible, then Aviles just moves back over to SS and Callaspo comes in at 2B.
I really think that Furcal (or [sigh] Cabrera, IF and only if Moore couldn’t work out some sort of trade for a younger, serviceable backup SS) is the only option. Guillen and Farnsworth better perform like no-doubt All-Stars from wire-to-wire next year. Dammit.
"Quit trying to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring...besides that they're fascist. Throw some groundballs. It's more democratic."
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 15, 2008 11:33 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
I agree with you execpt you are forgetting another option.
We could trade for a very good AA or AAA short stop prospect. I know a top 20 short stop prospect would be costly, but would it really cost more then Furcal? The Royals have a lot of pitching prospects., maybe they could swap for a fairly polished ss type player? I think that might be the best way to go.
Go Royals!
I (sort of) mentioned that...
in the last paragraph. I think the best option would be to sign Furcal (assuming Guillen was actually traded or Glass suddenly becomes Santa Claus), but if it’s not in the cards then trade options should definitely be explored. Whether that’s for just a decent backup or for a younger, almost-ML-ready prospect, then fine. Obviously, the higher upside prospect will cost more, and I don’t know other teams’ farm systems well enough to project some possibilities.
Is there a decent kid in Philly’s system who is languishing behind Rollins?
"Quit trying to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring...besides that they're fascist. Throw some groundballs. It's more democratic."
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 15, 2008 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
Jason Donald
That’s who I was thinking of. Blocked by Rollins, and had a wOBA of .389 at AA last year. Wonder what it would take to pry him away from Philly?
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=$10190&position=SS
"Quit trying to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring...besides that they're fascist. Throw some groundballs. It's more democratic."
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 15, 2008 5:33 PM EST up reply actions
From what I've read...
…most think he’s not really a SS. In the majors, he projects as a 2B. Some say that he projects as an average offensive and defensive MLB second baseman. Some think he’d be better than that, particularly offensively. Of course it’s hard to say given that he’s never played above AA. I like him, but it would take something good to get him.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 15, 2008 5:44 PM EST up reply actions
"Not really a SS" like Moustakas...
is not really a SS? Or not really a SS as in, COULD play SS for another team that didn’t have Rollins in front of him? Of course, I guess Utley is going to be there at 2B for a while, too.
"Quit trying to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring...besides that they're fascist. Throw some groundballs. It's more democratic."
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 15, 2008 6:09 PM EST up reply actions
What they are saying
…is that his defensive performance would likely be well below average for a MLB SS. Basically they are saying that his defensive skills are appropriate for 2B, and not appropriate for SS.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 15, 2008 6:14 PM EST up reply actions
during the trade deadline rush rumors about Mahay-for-Donald
NHZ and I were (half-) joking that you can never tell with prospect. Any time there’s a SS prospect who can hit, there’s always “anonymous scouts” who express doubts about said prospect’s ability to stick at the position.
Cf. the “defensive skills” any no-hit veteran backup catcher allegedly brings to team.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 15, 2008 6:39 PM EST up reply actions
I appreciate your cynicism
And I think cynicism is usually appropriate. But I really don’t think there is a cause-effect relationship between a SS prospect hitting well and scouts saying that his defensive skills aren’t good enough for the position. These guys get drafted out of HS or college where they were the best athletes on the team, so they very often played SS. They are started at that level because, of course, the organization would love for the prospect to be able to stick there for obvious reasons. But every level the player moves up, the bar gets higher and higher, and eventually most of these good hitting, athletic SS’s who were always something of a stretch at that position move to other positions more appropriate to their skills. You (like me) are a convert to the value of defense. You don’t put a guy at a position just because his bat plays well there.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 15, 2008 6:50 PM EST up reply actions
agreed
And I really don’t know much about Donald. NHZ and I were just joking about what seems to always be the word on an SS or C prospect who can hit.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 15, 2008 6:53 PM EST up reply actions
I think that speaks to the rarity with which players have plus hitting skills and plus defensive skills. And I only know what I’ve read about Donald. And since most of it is pretty vague, like “probably doesn’t project as a major league shortstop” who knows how good his defense really is. It’s just that I’ve read that kind of comment about Donald from multiple sources.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 15, 2008 7:00 PM EST up reply actions
Gotta be frustrating. Poor Aaron Gleeman is going to have a heart attack one day given the frequency with which it is suggested that Mauer move off of catcher.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 15, 2008 7:07 PM EST up reply actions
At some point, it might make sense to move him out of that position. Catching is unique because it puts a lot of wear and tear on a player that no other position does. It also limits playing time to some degree. So I’d consider moving him at some point, even before his defense starts really declining, in order to maximize his longevity (provided that his team is willing to do what it takes to keep him for the long-term)
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 15, 2008 7:15 PM EST up reply actions
It speaks to the rarity, certainly,
but I think the rumors get spread faster about questionable defensive reputations when it comes to a player who can, you know, actually hit. I’m well aware of the subjective nature of this opinion, but Nichol’s Law of Catcher Defense would help explain why Brad Ausmus and Mike Matheny and Catchand Throwguy made it for so long as starters.
Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.
same as
Aviles wasn’t supposed to be a ss? same as Aviles wasn’t supposed to be good at all?
But, yes, I largely agree that if the guy is just AA right now, I’m not sure you can count on him anymore than TPJ to be a realiable backup for the situation you’re concerned about. Perhaps lightning could strike twice.
Aviles wasn’t supposed to be a ss? same as Aviles wasn’t supposed to be good at all?
I don’t know. I sure wouldn’t jump to the conclusion that if scouts have a negative opinion of a player or of a particular skill of a player then they must be wrong. Exceptional occurrences like the breakthrough of Aviles are just that: exceptions.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 15, 2008 8:42 PM EST up reply actions
Jerry Hairston anyone?
He can play 2b and OF when KC needs him to ala Gload/German and he had a nice bounce back year with the Reds injury aside.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
not a bad idea
if they can trade German. The Monkeys project him as a 1.2 WAR player with 85% playing time. That’s better than Callaspo, although I wouldn’t want to bring him in with the idea that he’s going to start over Callaspo.
If the Royals can sign him for $3M or less and German gets traded, a pretty good idea.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 15, 2008 1:46 PM EST up reply actions
As Dave Cameron notes
Chris Burke might also be a good choice here. Perhaps better, since he’d be cheaper.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 15, 2008 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
I guess if Teahen is staying...
and Guillen doesn’t end up being traded, then whatever one of the other utility players/backups the Royals start the season with should primarily be a backup middle IF (i.e. capable of playing decent-to-good defense at SS). I don’t see the benefit of adding another 2B/OF utility. I’d rather just hang on to German. In other words, any additional pure backup/utility guy should definitively eliminate TPJ’s roster spot.
"Quit trying to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring...besides that they're fascist. Throw some groundballs. It's more democratic."
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 15, 2008 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
I'm talking German
German will get at least $3M in arb. I’m pretty sure Burke can be had for less than that, and German can be traded or part of a trade.
Burke’s also a pretty good defender.
Not a big deal, but the different in salary could at least offset to Farnsworth sunk cost.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 15, 2008 3:08 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think German will get $3M in arbitration
It is his second year of arbitration, just as it is the second year for Buck and Teahen. Buck and Teahen got more in their first year of arbitration, and then performed better and had regular playing time in 2008. And everything I’ve read has suggested that Buck and Teahen will get $3-3.5M in arbitration, so German should get considerably less. Arbitration is primarily about service time and counting stats. If you aren’t a regular, it hurts your reward significantly. I’m thinking it will be more like $1.8-2.25M.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 15, 2008 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
oh, OK
I guess it all depends on what Burke/Hairston would want. I do think Burke is young enough that he might actually be able to complete with Callaspo for a starting spot if needed. If he can be had for less than $1M, I still say get him.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 15, 2008 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
For 2009? Where did you see this?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 15, 2008 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
Sportsline sez
“News: Ten players eligible for arbitration agreed to contracts, including Washington outfielder Willie Harris, who got a $3 million, two-year deal. The Chicago Cubs agreed to one-year contracts with outfielder Reed Johnson ($3 million), right-hander Chad Gaudin ($2 million) and left-hander Neal Cotts ($1.1 million), and the Phillies reached one-year agreements with infielder Eric Bruntlett ($800,000) and right-hander Clay Condrey ($650,000). Also agreeing to one-year contracts were Kansas City infielder Esteban German ($1.2 million), Detroit infielder Ramon Santiago ($825,000), White Sox outfielder DeWayne Wise ($550,000) and Oakland catcher Rob Bowen ($535,000).”
Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.
Cool, thanks for the info
Cots doesn’t have that yet. Considering he made $1M last year, the Royals got a good deal at $1.2M. That makes him even more tradable.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 15, 2008 4:34 PM EST up reply actions
They deserve them
If they were free agents, they’d get more, particularly Teahen.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 15, 2008 8:42 PM EST up reply actions
I realize
you have a much higher opinion of Teahen since we’ve debated him before. I’m just done with him. I really don’t think he’s ever going to “break out” like everyone has been saying and waiting for. We have to stop holding our breath someday or we’ll suffocate under the big Teabag.
Buck? meh
That's not a wise standard by which to evaluate a player
Most supporters of Teahen aren’t saying, “he’s about to have a big breakout and become an impact player!” Most of us just recognize the value of his hitting (particularly his OBP) and his OF defense. Add those two things together and you have a pretty good player. Yes, I would prefer that the Royals pretty good players be very good players and for their very good players to be outstanding players. But that doesn’t mean the pretty good players don’t have value. They do. Not every player on the team is going to be a star.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 15, 2008 9:03 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
hey
you’re back. That is the NYRoyal I know, and 100% agree.
by I need more Esteban on Dec 16, 2008 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
I'm complicated
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 16, 2008 1:23 PM EST up reply actions
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 16, 2008 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
I remember when I had a serious thing for her
Remember that movie with her and Neve Campbell?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 16, 2008 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
oh yeah
that picture up there is kinda scary, though
And don’t you mean Neve “Whatever Happened to Me?” Campbell?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 16, 2008 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
Neve peaked in "Party of Five"
Interestingly, I saw here in this independent film recently on IFC or the Sundance Channel in which she was naked and/or having sex in almost every scene.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 16, 2008 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
and that was after years of....
no nudity clauses…when people actually wanted to see her naked
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Dec 16, 2008 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
i believe wild things is the movie you're looking for...
and surely everyone remembers it.
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Dec 16, 2008 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
Much Like Jacobs
And Guillen, it’s best to use a player to the team’s best advantage, not the player’s. Teahen, Guillen, Jacobs, Shealey and Butler should all be parts of RF and 1b/DH platoons, but it probably won’t happen.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Dec 16, 2008 6:39 PM EST up reply actions
Thinking outside the box
While I agree that there is justified concern for Callaspo’s range at 2B, how about these alternatives to solve that problem:
DON’T trade for Jacobs
DON’T sign Furcal
DON’T sign Farnsworth, because not trading for Jacobs = not trading Nunez
Instead:
Sign Teixera for 20-22 million per year, thus upgrading 1B both offensively, AND defensively. That upgrade might adequately compensate for Callaspo’s perceived defensive shortcoming, as most believe it his range, and his range only, that has everyone apprehensive. Personally, I saw enough of his bat last year to convince me that it will play, and most likely play at above avg, at 2B.
Net effect:
Save $6m on Jacobs
Save $11m on Furcal
Save 4.5m on Farnsworth
Spend $20-$22m on Teixeira
Spend $1-$2m on Leo Nunez
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
That proposed Teixeira contract is not bigger than other offers reportedly on the table right now
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 15, 2008 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, but think of the savings...
Texeira would get on KC’s super-low cost of living? Especially compared to Anaheim/LA, NY, or DC!
"Quit trying to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring...besides that they're fascist. Throw some groundballs. It's more democratic."
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 15, 2008 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
And less state/local income tax than NY and DC
And yet it would still likely take something like 6/150 or 7/175 for the Royals to get him.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 15, 2008 4:36 PM EST up reply actions
but what if the Royals trade Guillen!!!?!?!/1/1/1/1/?!/1/1?!
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 15, 2008 6:40 PM EST up reply actions
The problem is
you’re “saving” money on Furcal that we haven’t spent – yet. Now, if we really do sign the guy and end up keeping Guillen, then I think a lot of people around here will be freaking out that we should have been allowed to compete for Tex. Although, I agree with most around here that we will not get rid of Guillen and keep the money too. That money is already spent and we ain’t gettin’ it back.
I realize he wouldn't sign here
but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t have even made an offer.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
True
I’m just saying he isn’t a realistic alternative. However, Furcal, Dunn, Bradley or Burrell would have been a realistic alternative to acquiring Jacobs, Crisp, Farnsworth, and Ramirez. And clearly a better alternative.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 15, 2008 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah,
I was sorta using Teixeira to further the point I always make – I’m in favor of acquiring one very expensive bat that is more certain to produce than to acquire two or three mediocre, less certain players.
I think a team in the Royals market should only have two types of players:
Young, ascending talent that is still relatively cheap
Stars that are highly paid, but highly productive
Just my opinion, and I realize that means we can only have 2, maybe 3 stars at the MOST at any given moment in time.
Problem with this: It requires a top-notch farm system to pull this off, and we are still recovering from the decade and a half of Glass running said farm system into the ground.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
and like I said in semi-agreement
while I don’t think the Royals should necessarily tie up such a large percentage of their payroll in one guy, he is the kind of player who, unliek Dunn, Burrell, etc. actually might have a chance of being worth the contract he signs.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 15, 2008 6:41 PM EST up reply actions
for some reason i just cant justify spending that much money on a 1b....
regardless of what your stats say…i just dont see defense at 1b making a $15 million difference b/w Tex and Dunn…not to mention that you’re going an extra 3 or so years with teixeira.
the only guys i can see being worth 25/yr are guys who hit as good as teixeira or better and play a more premium position…or hit like pujols…
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Dec 15, 2008 9:39 PM EST up reply actions
Even if you aren't worried about defense
Teixeira’s a sigificantly better hitter than Dunn. Over 700 PAs (a “full season”), Marcels projects Dunn as 24 runs above average offensively — outstanding. Teixeira is at 33. That’s before adjusting (as Marcels self-consciously doesn’t do) for the difference in parks — The projections are based on a period in which Dunn played in a bandbox in CIN and a hitters park in ARI. True, Teixeira was in a major hitters park in Texas (although the B-R park factors actually aren’t as favorable there as in CIN and ARI), but he also played in less favorable parks such as ATL and LA/ANA.
Moreover, Teixeira played most of the time in the AL, whose talent advantage is almost completely pitching-based.
I like the idea of Adam Dunn — huge man with tons of power and walks. Teixeira is a bit of a pretty boy. But I do think that once you realize that he’s a better hitter straight up, all the other stuff justified the conclusion that he’s vastly superior player.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 15, 2008 9:49 PM EST up reply actions
Dunn gives up a hell of a lot of runs in the OF
And Teixeira saves runs. So with Dunn it is offense-defense. With Teixeira, it’s offense+defense. And Teixeira is a better hitter. And Teixeira has been able to hit well in the AL, while Dunn has only hit well in the NL (in a hitter-friendly ballpark). And players with Dunn’s skill set typically decline earlier and faster. So I think the relative contract numbers for the two make sense.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 15, 2008 9:50 PM EST up reply actions
Ok... I'll refresh, but I have the earlier time-stamp at the moment
(b*tch!)
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 15, 2008 9:51 PM EST up reply actions
im not saying that Tex isnt the better player...he quite obviously is...
but in my opinion, it’d be a much better use of resources to sign Dunn at 4/48 and have him at 1b/dh and OPS 900 then to have Tex OPS 950 and play good defense for 7/175….
my opinion is party shaped in that 4/48 for anyone is not a franchise crippler if it doesnt work out…a tex contract would be…not saying that they are similar players..but look at what has happened to hafner and what that would do to the royals if it happened on that long of a contract
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Dec 15, 2008 9:54 PM EST up reply actions
oh yeah, I agree with that
7/175 is way too much for Teixeira, for the ROyals, anyway.
4/48 is way too much for Dunn, though. He might defy the decline again, but he might also be a smaller version of the Guillen albotross in 2 years with that contract. Even 3/36 is too much for a guy with his skills, although Ibanez, who’s considerably worse, got 3/30, so what do I know…
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 15, 2008 9:58 PM EST up reply actions
i think my problem is that i just dont really buy into dunn falling off of a cliff by age 32
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Dec 15, 2008 10:01 PM EST up reply actions
i could buy into this argument if we were buying into his mid 30s years
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Dec 15, 2008 10:03 PM EST up reply actions
understandably
But that’s NYRoyals argument. I’m neutral on the point. I’m going off their projections for next year from Marcel.Rally, which don’t have any distinct decline curves for individual players or types of players (as the more sophsticated projection systems do). So my analysis isn’t based on that.
Here’s something interesting. I’ll use ZiPS. Even thought league average off. baseline isn’t yet available for ZiPS, I’ll just use as .338 wOBA. ZiPS likes Dunn more. I will keep using Rally’s def. projections
Here’s a certain player who is clearly not as good a hitter as Dunn, but also plays corner outfield. Over 700 PAs, ZiPS has him as a +12 hitter in 2009. He’s a +5 defender in the corner OF.
+17 – 7.5 for corner OF = .95 wins above average. + Al replacement level (2.5 wins) = 3.45 WAR player.
Dunn. Zips (rightly) has him as a monster hitter. +32. Rally is pretty conservative, and has him as only “terrible” in the OF: a -13 defender.
Off + def. = 19 runs above average = 1.9 wins. -.75 for LF = 1.15 wins. + 2 wins for NL replacement level = 3.15 WAR player.
Now, I didn’t adjust for less that full playing time, but you get the idea. 3 WAR is above average, and Dunn looks better here. However, the other player is clearly better despite the vastly inferior bat because he’s almost 2 wins better on defense. The difference in pitching between AL and NL is real, but even if you take that difference away, Dunn is only barely better.
Who is this mysterious player? Hint: he was recently traded away for crap and doesn’t make crap (relatively speaking).
The mystery player?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 15, 2008 10:15 PM EST up reply actions
oh....i'd absolutely LOVE to have swisher....
kenny williams got fleeced
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Dec 15, 2008 10:19 PM EST up reply actions
now watch the Yanks screw up and play him at first
A Damon-Cameron-Swisher Of would be very good and underrated
But of course, they don’t need Tex.
maybe they’ll still get in on Dunn and have him play first (where he’s even less valuble, but what the hell).
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 15, 2008 10:31 PM EST up reply actions
the yanks need a 1b though...
so he’d be pretty damn valuable to them…
not to mention…that outfield defense would be ridiculous..and while not providing a ton of power, pretty good offensively as well
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Dec 15, 2008 10:38 PM EST up reply actions
Billy, with regard to the issue of Dunn falling off a cliff in his early 30's
There have been quite a few studies done on player development/decline curves and how those curves differ for different kinds of players. There is an average development/decline curve which has players peak in their mid-to-late 20’s, have something of a plateau (a slow decline) from that peak until about age 33, and then begin an increasingly steep decline. But the decline curve for players who have “old player skills” is considerably different. These are players who are long on plate discipline and power, but short on contact, speed or athleticism. They tend to peak earlier and then start declining rapidly often around 30. One of Baseball Prospectus’s books has an entire chapter on this phenomenon. There are several examples of this. The most recent is Richie Sexson. Of course these are not hard and fast rules. Not everyone follows the norm for their player type. Dunn could start his decline several years from now. I just don’t think that is likely. I think it is more likely that he’s speeding toward a cliff. When will he hit it? It’s hard to say. But I think it’s likely that a team would get a very good year from him in 2009, an ok year in 2010 and a fairly poor year in 2011. That’s why I’d give him no more than a 3-year deal.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 15, 2008 11:28 PM EST up reply actions
i guess we'll see
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Dec 16, 2008 12:39 AM EST up reply actions
do you know what are you talking about?
Adam Dunn shall be 29 the ENTIRE 2009 season.
He is on a 5 year in a row streak of 40 or more homers.
He is on a 5 year in a row streak of at least 100 walks.
Dunn has yet to spend an extended period in the a.l. so of course he has only hit well in the national league.
In fact, I offer that with Dunn’s skillset (massive power + great patience), he can hit in any league.
And he is light years from decline. Only the dumbest athlete in today’s game do not take advantage of off season preparation and eat poorly.
You have written it at least twice in this thread about ‘players close to decline’ but at 29 years old, how is it even relevant to this thread when discussing adam dunn.
The royals sign dunn and leave future batting champ callaspo at 2nd is the only way to go…
Adam Dunn: awesomest player ever
I like Dunn. But here are his Wins Above Replacement as per Chone Smith over the last 4 years, with 0 being suckville/Guillen-land, 1 being a bench player, 2 being average, 3 being above average, and so on:
2008: 2.2
2007: 2.9
2006: 0.4
2005: 3.9
thanks pretty close to what I have on my own (my 2008 is better, my 2007 and 2006 are much worse). Anyway, we’re talking about a guy who’s defensive problems made him around average this year, and barely above replacement level (I have him _below_) in 2006. I’m sure he works out, but age is age.
A simple four-year weighted average of Chone’s uber-stats, even on favoring the most recent year more heavily, gives us 1.7 WAR. Now, projections have him better than that, although Chone doesn’t. Off the top of my head, CHONE has +16 (run) offense, – 13 defense, -7.5 position. Since he’s an FA, let’s generously give him a +22.5 replacement level adjustment. Basically, you get a 1.8 WAR player using the usual aging curves, etc.
Any player is worth acquiring for the right price, of course. What is the “right price” for Adam Dunn? A more generous off projection suggests 3/$24 as around his market value. I’d be in on that. But I doubt that will be his price.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 18, 2008 11:53 AM EST up reply actions
Signing Dunn would only make sense if...
Guillen could be traded first or if Moore had never made the Jacobs trade. Otherwise it would be a very expensive luxury that teams like the Royals can’t afford.
"Quit trying to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring...besides that they're fascist. Throw some groundballs. It's more democratic."
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 18, 2008 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
There's still the question of where you put him
as bad as he is in left, he’d be worse in right. DDJ is OK in CF, very good in left, but his arm is his worst tool (I think), so RF would be a big stretch. Even with Jacobs gone, Dunn and Butler have about equal “skill” at first. It could work, but Dunn may or may not want to play there or DH…
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 18, 2008 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
For $8M, his bat can carry his defense
And I’d put him in LF. I’d do 3/24 in a heartbeat. I’d trade some OFer and let Dunn share time between LF and DH (with Butler playing everyday at either 1B or DH). Of course, this is what I’d do and that bears no resemblance to what Moore would be willing to do.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 18, 2008 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
no kidding
Now I’m getting excited — WE’RE GETTING DUNN FOR 3/24. Part of my brain already has him hitting 3rd, watching JoGui suit up for the Mets…
I’m going to go nuts if pitchers and catcher don’t report soon
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 18, 2008 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
This isn't even the bad part
The latter part of January and into February is a nightmare. The vast majority of the hot stove season is done. Few players are left out there, and few significant moves are made. The projection systems have all already come out. It’s just a lot of waiting.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 18, 2008 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
do you guys ever go out to spring training?
i’ve been out the last couple years and it’s a pretty awesome way to get your baseball fix before real baseball comes
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Dec 18, 2008 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
I was going to go last year, but then work got in the way
I’d love to go to Surprise. By March, things are getting very interesting, even if you can’t make it to spring training. Finally, something real(ish) is happening with regard to baseball. But late January and early February is just dead.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 18, 2008 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
its an awesome time...
and an escape from the shit weather in KC….or NY
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Dec 18, 2008 1:07 PM EST up reply actions
Or Seattle
Yes, I’ve been to ST at Baseball City and Surprise. I highly recommend it if you can make it happen. Lots of fun.
One day we went to Surprise without any tickets. The first guy in the parking lot sold me 4 tickets 1st row behind visitor dugout. Cool!
I may not be much, but I've got great intangibles.
lets go all the way back to 2002
Devil,
I would be very interested in seeing these numbers for each year beginning in 2002. Other than his injured 2003, I doubt there is very much difference year to year.
Looking at 2006, his rbi was down ~10 and runs were down less then 10. Walks were on par and homers were on par. Offensively, his season was no different than any other year of his career.
And who ever signs Dunn should be signing his for his bat. If an american league team signs him, it should definitely be with the intent to DH for a portion of any season.
RBI
Enough said.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 18, 2008 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
OK
Don’t get me wrong — I like Dunn, and I wish the Royals could get him. If you had asked me even 4 months ago what I thought th ey should offer, I would have said 3/51 or 4/64. I just have a different view of the market and player value now.
I can just give you my numbers that I already have for him (the defensive numbers are haphazrd, and I might redo them later) real quick, since I just have Chone’s for the last four, and I don’t have a breakdown. The first number after the year will be offensive linear weights above average, park and league adjusted (from b-r.com). The second number will be total runs above/below average for defense. The third number will be total positional adjustment in wins, prorated for innings. The fourth number (bold) will be total value in Wins Above Replacement (which will include the prorated replacement level adjustment. All these things matter.
Ok, so it’s Off, def. pos. adj., total WAR
2001: 13.1, -7.5, -0.29, 1.06
2002: 22.4, -7.5, -0.88, 2.49
2003: 10.9, -11, -0.55, 0.87
2004: 40.6, -1.6, -0.77, 4.93
2005: 35.7, -6.5, -0.81, 3.95
2006: 12.7, -26.1, -0.73, -0.03
2007: 29.7, -23.2, -0.67, 1.82
2008: 25.7, -0.8, -0.76, 3.56
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 18, 2008 2:51 PM EST up reply actions
If 2 is average and 3 is above average...
…then out of the last 5 years, Adam dunn is a very productive WAR based player.
2004: 40.6, -1.6, -0.77, 4.93
2005: 35.7, -6.5, -0.81, 3.95
2006: 12.7, -26.1, -0.73, -0.03
2007: 29.7, -23.2, -0.67, 1.82
2008: 25.7, -0.8, -0.76, 3.56
I am curious, why have you lowered your expection of Dunn’s salary?
it depends on how you look at it
I actually have no idea what to expect he will get paid. In general, you never know when a GM is going to do something stupid (Farnsworth), or player will decide to take less money to go somewhere else (Furcal). And Dunn is a particularly special case because I still thikn that many offices don’t get that the strikeouts are not big deal, whlie on the other hand many offices aren’t very smart when it comes to understanding the relative on-field value of a player’s defense and position.
If you look here, you can see a salary chart I did for this offseason’s free agency. I use the conventional $4.84 WAR + replacement salary per year. FOr all players, I follow along with the experts in assuming a 0.5 WAR a year drop in skill (since most players past 27 are in at least a gradual decline phase) and 10% salary inflation. If you clock on the different tabs, you can see the way I used Marcel’s offensive projections and Rally’s defensive projections to gauge a players WAR value. You can look at the notes there and follow some of the links in the “Info” tab for more information.
They aren’t my projections, but it’s more of an experiment to see how the “monkeys” do as a Robo-GM in predicting and evaluating the market.
I’m not a guy who does his own projections, but obviously, looking at my own numbers above (which just combine stuff from other sources), you have an idea of what the player has done. Going forward, of course, is what is of interest to fans and GMs looking at free agents for their teams to sign. The most recent four years, averaged, come out to about 2.3 WAR. On the salary chart linked about, a 2.5 WAR player “should” get a contract of 2/23.5M, 3/32.7M/, 3/39.6M, and so on.
But just averaging the last four years doesn’t really get us a good idea of the players value, right, because four years ago is a long time ago for atheletes. So (and again, this is very crude, since it lumps all the factors together rather than adjusting them separately) a better way would be to take a weighted average of the last four years — 5.4.3.2, let’s say. Then the average comes to about 1.7 WAR. That’s below average.
Now, Marcels and Rally’s projections are separate and a bit more nuanced (although Marcels is deliberatley crude compared to CHONE, ZiPS, or PECOTA). Adding it all together , you can see that the chart has Dunn, when adjusting for playing time, projected as a 2 WAR player. That’s average, overall. And you can see what the projected market value is. There might be other projectino systems that have him better (ZiPS, I think, likes his offense a bit more) or worse (CHONE likes his offense less). But they don’t vary enough to say he’s worth 3/50 or whatever.
Now, the projections might be way off, and he performs way above his abilities. But I’m not sure that’s a good bet a team, especially one with a payroll like the Royals, can afford to take.
It’s too bad, too, because I loves me some walks and massive home runs.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 18, 2008 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
If Farnsworth gets $5 million annually, Dunn should be worth $35 m
This space intentionally left blank.
+9.25
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 19, 2008 10:03 AM EST up reply actions
Tuna
Have you read anything about the development/decline curves of different types of players? Of course you haven’t and yet you pretend that every 29-year-old should be expected to have at last 4 more years of good production. It just doesn’t work that way. The early decline of players with “old player skills” isn’t exactly a controversial concept. It is widely understood and generally agreed upon in the sabermetric community. Knowledge is fun; you should try it.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 18, 2008 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
Coming from a guy...
…who thinks there is an impending drop off from a player who is in his prime, I am more then confident I am the only one between the two of us who is armed in this battle of wits.
Breakin it down, Adam Dunn is:
-on a 5 year streak of 40 homers (how many other active mlb’ers have had even 5 seasons of 40 hr?)
-on a 5 year streak of 100 walks (how many active mlb’ers have had even 5 season’s with 100 walks?).
I suppose there is only one direction for his stats to go but that can be said for ANY player who is on such a high level of production but at dunn’s age, it just isn’t happening during the lifetime of the contract he is going to sign this off-season.
In fact, if you care to think this through, you would realize Adam Dunn is not being signed for his defence. He is being signed for his bat and his bat is massive.
And if you care to, please name some of the players who prove your theory of decline. Players who have achieved dunn’s level of production and then declined in the mannor you are suggesting Adam Dunn is going to decline before they turned the age of 30 (without injury). I am very interested in reading this list.
Thanks
I am more then confident I am the only one between the two of us who is armed in this battle of wits.
I hate it when people use words they’re not really familiar with. This isn’t a battle of “wits.” This isn’t about “wit.” It’s about knowledge, and you are sorely lacking.
In fact, if you care to think this through, you would realize Adam Dunn is not being signed for his defence. He is being signed for his bat and his bat is massive.
And his shitty defense really hurts his overall value. His offense adds runs. His defense gives runs to the other team. Defense counts.
Tuna, you haven’t seen any of the research I’m referring to and yet you disregard it out of hand. For early peaks and early declines of bigger, less athletic players with “old player skills,” see Richie Sexson and Travis Hafner for two. Man, do some reading before you spout off and advertise your ignorance.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 18, 2008 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
defense doesnt count...
if he’s a DH…
Also, I was reading up a little bit on the old player skills stuff earlier today and most of the declines dont happen this early…he’s 29 and will be 32 by time a 3 year contract is up…and likely be a very productive player for those three years IMO…but we shall see i guess
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Dec 18, 2008 9:38 PM EST up reply actions
defense doesnt count…
if he’s a DH…
And by all accounts, he doesn’t want to DH. And when you’re a team where it is tough to sign a FA even when you have the highest bid on the table, signing a guy to play a position he doesn’t want to play is damned near impossible.
Also, I was reading up a little bit on the old player skills stuff earlier today and most of the declines dont happen this early…he’s 29 and will be 32 by time a 3 year contract is up…and likely be a very productive player for those three years IMO…but we shall see i guess
I’ve never said that he’s standing on the edge of the cliff right now and in 2009 we’ll see a decline. I’m just saying that the declines for players like this often happen around 30-31 (Richie Sexson – 31, Travis Hafner – 30). So the decline could come soon meaning he could be in the midst of significantly decline during the term of a multi-year contract. It doesn’t make him worthless, but it hurts his value.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 18, 2008 9:53 PM EST up reply actions
pretty off topic here.....
but i guess were talking about the yanks and i was just thinking about something…
if you’re the yanks, do you try to sign another starting pitcher? If so, do you put joba in the bullpen? for some reason tonite, im very intrigued by using joba as a fireman type reliever…getting 120-130 innings out of the pen and the occasional spot start. im just curious as to what you guys think of that idea
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Dec 15, 2008 10:41 PM EST reply actions
Not a bad idea
If they were to get a genuinely good SP, like Lowe, that might make sense. But overall, I think Joba is a very good pitcher who will develop into a good #2 SP (maybe a #3-quality SP in 2009). So I think he’d help the team more as a starter. Now, if you really maximize his leverage as a reliever, that would make it a closer call. So in theory it might be a good idea. But the reality is that the manager is Joe Girardi. And little Joe is a regular ol’ traditional manager who isn’t going to do that. He’s going to use Mariano in the 9th inning and Joba in the 8th inning. So for the actual real world 2009 Yankees with that manager, I don’t think you’d get the most out of Joba in the bullpen.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 15, 2008 11:34 PM EST up reply actions
Joba
If he’s healthy, he’s a #1 starter. No doubt in my mind about it. No ESPN garbage affecting my mind. Elite stuff with above average command. He is really good.
Unfortunately for him, staying healthy looks like a problem.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
pitch count is a MAJOR problem for him....
but im a huge joba fan as well…but 5 inning starters just arent all that valuable
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Dec 16, 2008 2:10 AM EST up reply actions
is that more because...
he just physically can’t last that long, or because his pitch counts are being very strict? i’m guessing some of both.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
its b/c he's very inefficient with his pitches...
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Dec 16, 2008 2:32 AM EST up reply actions
he wouldve been tied for last with about 3 others out of all qualified starters....
with 4.1 P/PA
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Dec 16, 2008 2:34 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, he's still got some issues to deal with
He’s not ready to be an ace yet. He’s got some good raw materials for a potential ace, but they are still fairly raw. I think he’ll become a good #2 starter eventually (if he can stay healthy). People call good young pitchers “future ace’s” all the time and it rarely comes to pass. The odds are against any pitcher, including Joba.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 16, 2008 2:41 AM EST up reply actions
The Pitch Count
Never bothers the Royals’ starters.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Dec 16, 2008 7:04 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I don't like Aviles at 2nd
He isn’t very fluid at turning to 2 from that side of the bag, and his range seems to decrease. I do think he is more than adequate at SS though, and Hillman has said that he was extremely happy with how Aviles played there this year. So unless we get Furcal, I don’t think he should be moved. Also, I think Aviles’s BABIP while a bit high, could be sustainable. He has a very quick eye and bat, as evidenced by his standing in the front of the batter’s box. You can’t really fool him with a pitch because he gets to it before the late breaking movement takes over too. He hits a lot of balls back up the middle (.308 BA on groundballs), and he hits a lot of line drives (17.4% LD with .808 BA on line drives). I say he avoids the sophomore slump, but does come back a bit. Based on 600 PAs, .310/.345/.470 about 35 doubles and 12-15 homers.
Hmmm... I hope you're right about Aviles' offense.
but I just dno’t see it. PrOPS has him at about .740 OPS. ZeppelinDZ’s BABIP study shows him to be incredibly lucky. The latest xBABIP model from THT, which takes player speed, handedness, etc. into account shows him to be extremely lucky.
Even the incredibly optimisiticc Bill James projections have Aviles as as below-average hitter (and my estmation of James projected league wOBA is low in that piece, having looked at Fangraphs version).
That’s all OK. I still think he’s likely hit well enough that, combined with average defense, he can be around a 2.5 WAR player — Furcal doesn’t be much better than that, and will be pulling in considerably more than Aviles’ $400K. And maybe it is the case that Aviles is better at SS than 2B, but that would be unusual. The issue isn’t Aviles as much as it is Callaspo, etc. But that’s neither here nor there. People need to adjust their expectations for Aviles’ hitting, and for what “good hitting” from a middle infielder is in general.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 16, 2008 12:20 AM EST up reply actions
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