A New xBABIP Model

Over at The Hardball Times, Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix have come up with a new model for establishing xBABIP. It goes beyond just line drive rate to include speed, general location of hit, plate discipline, contact rate, park, handedness, and more. You can read the article for all the thrilling details. I wonder how it compares with the work done by our own ZeppelinDZ here and here.

There's also a download of all the data they ran from the last four seasons and comparison with the Studeman's older (and still useful) LD% + .12 model. For those of you have have lives, I'll list some of the Royals 2008 "luck rates" here. Positive numbers indicate they were lucky, negative, unlucky. I guess that Callaspo, German, TPJ, and MITCH didn't make the cutoff point.

Avilanche 10.73
Grudz 3.11
G-Load -.74
Butler 2.15
DDJ .45
Guillen -1.53
Teahen -3.79
Olivo 4.87
Buck -4.87
Gordon 3.73
Gathright 43.92

Not too many surprises here. Aviles shows up as lucky on every "luck neutralizer" I've seen. Gordon is a bit of a surprise, but when you realize that's 3.73%, it's not that different (and keep in mind this has little to do with power hitting). If you buy this model, then Olivo's speed doesn't explain his greater BABIP success than Buck this year -- I'm still betting that given equal playing time next year (wherever they end up), Buck has a better offensive season. This is Gathright when he's lucky? He, Aviles, and perhaps Olivo are the only ones who really stand out as exceptionally lucky this past season to me.

about 1 month ago devil_fingers Comment 8 comments 0 recs |

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gathright looks really weird

but i would say that’s fairly consistent with what I was seeing otherwise, haven’t read the article yet.

by ZeppelinDZ on Dec 2, 2008 1:35 PM EST 0 recs

ok, i emailed the guy to get the copy of the academic paper he is writing

but what they do is the same basic methodology as I did, but with more and better data. it should be really useful, ill read their paper and let you know

by ZeppelinDZ on Dec 2, 2008 1:55 PM EST up 0 recs

and wtf with the "nerds" tag?

by ZeppelinDZ on Dec 2, 2008 1:57 PM EST up 0 recs

I thought it was funny

I add it to many of mine. If you want me to delete it, I will

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 2, 2008 2:01 PM EST up 0 recs

nah man, i think its funny

by ZeppelinDZ on Dec 2, 2008 2:02 PM EST up 0 recs

but thanks for linking

i don’t browse HBT much, but this luck and hitting thing is really my main area of interest with baseball stats, so seeing these things is really cool for me.

by ZeppelinDZ on Dec 2, 2008 2:04 PM EST up 0 recs

the article is pretty awesome

pretty amazing what came back on joey. crazy to think he was extremely lucky in such an otherwise already dismal year.

no surprises with aviles. he’ll likely regress to a 290-315 BA next year, which is still very valuable at SS. I agree with you on Buck. I like Buck’s overall hitting approach to Olivo, doesn’t surprise me that he was a bit unlucky this year.

Buck was even more unlucky in 2007 with a BABIP of 233 and xBABIP (new one) of 283.

Pretty amazing work done by the HT guys. I’m amazed at some of the great stuff like this that comes out there and a few other places.

Alex Gordon in '08

by RoyalJHWKR on Dec 2, 2008 1:55 PM EST 0 recs

If Moore doesn't trade Gathright this offseason

…then he’s a f’ing idiot. Gathright has proven that he has some skills, but that he is overall a crappy baseball player. And yet, because some GM’s value his speed-only skill set, he has trade value. The Royals couldn’t get a lot for him, but they could get something. Non-tendering him would be fine, but it would be giving up what the Royals could get in return for him. So trade him, for the love of god.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 2, 2008 4:13 PM EST 0 recs