I Know It Means Nothing

But Brayan Pena is having a ridiculous winter league...

Check it.

Brayan in 164 AB's has a .341/.423/.567 with a .990 OPS he also has 8 Homers and 38 RBI's and he isn't supposed to have good power so I hear. This guy is GOING OFF..

Other Noteables -

Mike Aviles .321/.379/.491 - .870 OPS in 112 AB's 0 homers though -- 9 2B's and 5 3B's

Alberto Callaspo .303/.364/.379 - .742 OPS in 198 AB's 1 HR and only 11 Strike outs

Kila Ka'aihue .239/.432/.423 - .854 OPS in 71 AB's and 3 HR's and 22 BB's

Esteban German .344/.459/.465 - .924 OPS in 157 AB's and 23 RBI's, 31 BB's and 19 SB's

Miguel Olivo .163/.268/.306 - .574 OPS in 49 AB's and 1 HR

Again I know it means nothing.. but interesting

10 months ago focs 37 comments 1 recs |

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You're right it means nothing

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Dec 26, 2008 3:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Gigantes del Cibao plays in a t-ball field

B. Pena is playing for Gigantes del Cibao in the Dominican Winter League. They play in a notoriously hitter-friendly park. That partially explains Brayan’s power explosion. Here are some other power numbers for Gigantes players:

Brayan Pen, 8 HR in 164 AB (1 HR every 20.5 AB)

Juan Francisco 12 HR in 161 AB (1 HR every 13.4 AB)
Sean Rodriquez 6 HR in 74 AB (1 HR ever 12.3 AB)
Brad Nelson 8 HR in 72 AB (1 HR every 9 AB)

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 26, 2008 3:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Correct me if im wrong

But wouldnt that make your average numbers go down if you played in a smaller park ?

Werd.

by focs on Dec 26, 2008 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What average numbers?

Do you mean batting average, OBP and SLG? Typically smaller parks help both OBP (a little) and SLG (a lot). It might hurt batting average somewhat. Clearly Pena is making a hell of a lot of contact in winter ball. But I think the power spike is park and competition driven.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 26, 2008 4:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ya i meant batting average

Werd.

by focs on Dec 26, 2008 6:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

why would it hurt batting average?

Ground balls will be the same, and warning track flies will be homers. The only difference is the outfielders might play shallower, so maybe some loopers don’t drop.

by kcdc1 on Dec 27, 2008 2:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The only difference is the outfielders might play shallower, so maybe some loopers don’t drop.

That’s it. There’s less ground for the OFers to cover, so they get to more balls, turning them into outs. But I’m just spitballing here. I don’t know if the data supports the contention that smaller parks decrease batting average. Just a guess. Of course it isn’t really important, because I know the data supports that smaller parks increase OBP and SLG.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 27, 2008 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not necessarily

Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.

by NHZ on Dec 27, 2008 6:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

esteban showing off the speed...

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Dec 26, 2008 6:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Maybe that will increase his trade value

I kind of think he won’t be around by opening day, and I’m sure other teams would like to have him.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 26, 2008 6:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

another guy sabatoged by the tremendous hillman/moore duo

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Dec 26, 2008 8:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think they are the reason that his hitting was shitty last year

(particularly in the first half) He had a down year and it wouldn’t have made sense for them to play him too much given how horribly he was hitting. And it’s not like he should have played over Grudz or Callaspo.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 26, 2008 9:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i disagree about grudz...

but just b/c i dont think he shouldve been on the team in the first place.

Also, I dont think random ABs every 10 days is the way to get into a rhythm at the plate

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Dec 26, 2008 9:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

but just b/c i dont think he shouldve been on the team in the first place.

I agree. I wouldn’t have re-signed him for 2007 or 2008. But with him on the team, and Callaspo, German would have been my third option for second base, particularly with him hitting so poorly.

Also, I dont think random ABs every 10 days is the way to get into a rhythm at the plate

Probably, but when you’ve got Grudz, who was actually hitting pretty well, and Callaspo who looks like he might actually have a decent-to-good future on the team, it’s hard to justify keeping German in there when he’s not hitting well.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 27, 2008 12:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Probably, but when you’ve got Grudz, who was actually hitting pretty well, and Callaspo who looks like he might actually have a decent-to-good future on the team, it’s hard to justify keeping German in there when he’s not hitting well.

I agree with that, but I think it DOES have to do with German’s bad year at the plate. Once he got more regular PAs in the second half, he came around a bit.

Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.

by NHZ on Dec 27, 2008 6:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think it was just a cold first half, followed by his numbers regressing to the mean

I don’t think the lack of playing time was the cause. He’s had intermittent playing time throughout his career as a Royal and performed at a decent level. I don’t buy that intermittent playing time in 2008 suddenly hurt his hitting. He just had a bad year, and an awful first half. Even bench players can have down years.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 28, 2008 1:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Love those numbers!

Especially Aviles’, Ka’aihue’s and German’s OBPs. I am a bit more interested in Pena now. The Red Sox are looking for a catcher still. And the Yankees are looking to dump an outfielder. I wonder if the Royals could swing a three way trade and pick up Xavier Nady for John Buck? Not that the outfield isn’t already overflowing already, but I like Nady more than anyone else in the Royal’s outfield other than DeJesus.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Dec 27, 2008 11:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

three way deal involving the yankees and red sox?

good luck with that one

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Dec 27, 2008 1:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Buck?

I think he’s laughable for any team other than ours. I mean as a starter. OK, he’s laughable on ours too.

I may not be much, but I've got great intangibles.

by kabrink on Dec 27, 2008 1:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think you're doing the, "if he's not great, he sucks" thing again

Do you know how poor of a hitter the average MLB catcher is? Over his career, Buck has been a bit below that average, but not by a lot. Catching, like lefty pitching, is always in short supply. A young catcher with a little upside remaining who can hit at least near average for his position has some value. Many teams would love to have him as their #2 catcher.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 27, 2008 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Buck didn't help his case by throwing 2 hoppers to second last year.

by Warden11 on Dec 27, 2008 6:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think you're doing the "if he's average, he's great" thing again

I’m sure that if I search your old posts I can find plenty discussing how sucky Olivo is. Yet, my gut (yes, my gut) is telling me that Olivo is a slightly better hitter (but about average, like Buck), with more power, and can actually throw out a runner. So, why do you think Olivo sucks but Buck is great because he’s average? This is an odd dichotomy.

If you really believe this:

Many teams would love to have him as their #2 catcher

then I wonder why NO other teams are pounding on our door trying to trade someone for him. Boston is desperately looking for catching. I’ll wait and let the market value him for us.

I may not be much, but I've got great intangibles.

by kabrink on Dec 27, 2008 8:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No, I'm doing the "if he's a bit below average for his position, then he's a bit below average for his position"

I’m sure that if I search your old posts I can find plenty discussing how sucky Olivo is

You’ll find plenty of posts in which I say he’s a lot like Buck, but older. They both have some slightly different pluses and minuses, but similar quality overall. I liked his FA signing for 2008. It was cheap ($2.1M) and only for one year. The re-signing for $2.7M was pretty stupid.

So, why do you think Olivo sucks but Buck is great because he’s average?

Where do you get these odd ideas? When have I said that Olivo sucks And when have I said that Buck is great? In fact, just a few inches up on your computer screen, you’ll see that I said he was a bit below average for his position. I typed that and somehow that mutated in your brain into me saying that he’s great. How does that happen?

If you really believe this: “Many teams would love to have him as their #2 catcher” then I wonder why NO other teams are pounding on our door trying to trade someone for him. Boston is desperately looking for catching.

Why aren’t other teams pounding down the Royals door for Buck? Because nobody pounds down anybody’s door for a backup catcher. I’m not saying that many teams are dying to have Buck and would give up tons of talent for him. I’m saying there’s a market for him. And that’s what NHZ said which caused some switch in your brain to flip. “Somebody said Buck isn’t absolutely awful. It’s time for me to lose it!” Buck has some value. He’s better than the vast majority of #2 catchers in MLB. So, many teams would love to have him as their backup catcher. But is any team desperate to upgrade their backup catcher role? No. It’s on the to do list, but it isn’t critical. It’s something that they’ll take care of, but there’s no rush. And we have no idea how much interest other teams have shown in Buck. The fact that it hasn’t been on MLBTR doesn’t mean anything.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 28, 2008 1:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess I'm crazy and lose it, and you're condescending - I can live with that

At any rate, is it safe for all of us to agree that the Royals have 2 backup catchers as their starting catcher? We don’t know yet about the younger guys but it seems people are projecting them to be about the same stature. Even if this is so it would be good to let loose Buck or Olivo and bring up one of the kids for development.

I may not be much, but I've got great intangibles.

by kabrink on Dec 28, 2008 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm all for trading either Buck or Olivo and have been ever since they re-signed Olivo

I’d like to see what Pena or House could do as a Royal, and they likely wouldn’t be much worse. For the record, the Royals don’t really have any genuine catching prospects in the upper minors. The guys that were talking about as possible major league catchers are Pena, House and Tupman, aren’t kids who are still developing. They are at, near or past their peaks already. Pena is going to be 27, House 29 and Tupman 29.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 28, 2008 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

good point on their ages

I may not be much, but I've got great intangibles.

by kabrink on Dec 28, 2008 5:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ugh

I’m really tired of pointing out how low the offensive bar should be set for catchers.

Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.

by NHZ on Dec 27, 2008 6:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Defensive?

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Dec 27, 2008 8:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No, I bet he’s just a bit frustrated with people who apparently don’t understand how poorly an average catcher hits, and are amazed that Royals catchers and shortstops rarely hit well. You know what, catchers and shortstops usually don’t hit well. And that’s been the case for about the last 120 years.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 28, 2008 1:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

oh shit

I meant his “defensive ability.” As in John Buck’s ability to play defense.

Yea…that was quite unclear…wasn’t meant to be a snarky comment.

His defense looked pretty awful this year…he seems to be regressing in that regard. And his complete inability to throw out runners is not good either….3rd most SB’s against him in the MLB this year, only behind AJ Douchezynski and Ramon Hernandez.

Below average offense + below average defense + at least 2 million = B. Pena for backup catcher!

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Dec 28, 2008 2:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd be surprised if he's losing his defensive skills at his age

I think he had a bad year throwing out runners. I think his other defensive skills were fine and he was better at blocking pitches than Olivo in 2008. I think he’ll throw out significantly more runners in 2009, just from regression to the mean. Look at his year-by-year stats with regard to throwing out runners and 2008 was an outlier. Outliers at his age usually aren’t because a player’s skills have suddenly fallen off a cliff.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Dec 28, 2008 2:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

probably right

but then again, his arm did look downright pathetic at times this year…it wasn’t the same as in previous years. maybe he was injured or something and he’ll be better in ’09.

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Dec 28, 2008 2:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs