This is why it wasn't a good idea to sign Randy Johnson
The Giants have signed Randy Johnson to a contract which reportedly includes $8M guaranteed with performance bonuses of $2.5M and award bonuses of $2.5M. For some team, that might make sense. For a Royals team which isn't particularly close to contention, it does not. Why the hell are the Giants doing this?
about 3 years ago
Scott McKinney
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b/c they're intent on having the highest paid 5th starter in baseball history
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Dec 27, 2008 1:25 AM EST reply actions
oh shit..i was talking about zito....
most expensive middle reliever in history…
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Dec 27, 2008 3:29 AM EST up reply actions
Rumors are
They’ve been trying to move Sanchez all winter for a bat.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 29, 2008 10:53 AM EST up reply actions
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/giant-of-a-steal
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
Another weak Anderson article
He talks about how good RJ is but doesn’t explain how this likely puts them in contention. The Dodgers are still better and the Diamondbacks are both younger and better. This was a win-now move for a team that can’t win now. Another wasted $10M by the Giants.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 27, 2008 3:21 AM EST up reply actions
This was a win-now move for a team that can’t win now.
Your analysis, please. Why can’t they win the NL West?
Because the Dodgers and D’Backs are still better. Johnson and some low cost, low impact moves haven’t improved the Giants that much.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 27, 2008 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
You didn’t say it was more likely that the Dodgers or Diamondbacks will win. You said the Giants can’t win.
I think that a lot of unlikely things have to break right for the Giants to win that division — Sandoval has to emerge as a major league hitter, Renteria and Rowand must have good years, Molina has to continue to hit well with runners in scoring position, and so on and so forth, not even mentioning the pitching staff, which looks pretty good on paper but of course has to stay healthy to succeed. Is any of that impossible? Of course it isn’t.
The Dodgers and Diamondbacks are probably better than the Giants and Rockies, but they’re not strong enough for me to rule them out. The only team in that division with no shot at all is the Padres.
The Giants MIGHT be the third best team in the NL West
so they won’t be winning in 2009. That seems pretty clear if you compare the SF roster with the other teams in the division.
Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.
Isn't this what we thought of the White Sox last year?
Just sayin…
by Warden11 on Dec 27, 2008 6:23 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Not really the same case
The Indians and Tigers looked a lot stronger going into 2008 than the NL West teams in 2009.
Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.
I don't get what you are saying here.
So, the NL West teams don’t look as strong, so the Giants won’t be winning it?
Or are you convinced that the gap is just way too big between the Giants and D’backs or Dodgers?
Late response
but yes, I think the dodgers and the d’backs have a pretty big head start, despite the fact that 85 wins might win the division.
Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.
by NHZ on Jan 7, 2009 8:06 PM EST up reply actions
The Giants MIGHT be the third best team in the NL West
This is a reasonable assessment. We should take another look in February, however, once the late signings have been made.
so they won’t be winning in 2009
If you insert the word “probably”, we’re in agreement.
There's a reason they play the games people
Can you say Tampa Bay Rays?
Or how about Detroit Tigers?
So every team should follow a win-now strategy!
I’m just trying to describe how realistic their chances are, and whether this signing makes sense given where they are.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 28, 2008 1:12 AM EST up reply actions
I guess anything is possible
The Giants might contend. The Royals might contend. I guess anyone can win, but it’s just not likely. I was speaking to the wisdom of shelling out around $10M for a SP in a win-now strategy when a win-now strategy doesn’t make sense. They should be rebuilding.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 28, 2008 1:10 AM EST up reply actions
the reason i somewhat agree with this signing for them is...
that theyve got a few big contracts and a full scale rebuild isnt really possible. So, why not throw the extra $8 million out there and go for it.
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Dec 28, 2008 1:43 AM EST up reply actions
The only mitigating factor I see is that it is a one-year deal
So, while it isn’t a part of a rebuilding effort — which they should engage in — it doesn’t hurt them long-term.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 28, 2008 1:48 AM EST up reply actions
you really think they're that far away in the NL West?
I just don’t see them being too far away from competing in the division. LA was only three games away from being a .500 team last year, and they’ve got holes to fill with retirements (Kent, Maddux), and free agency (Lowe, Penny, possibly Manny). Plus, their best starter—the Buzzsaw— had offseason surgery.
Of course competing for the NL West and competing for the World Series are two different things…
by Fernando Vina School of Linguistics on Dec 28, 2008 1:51 AM EST up reply actions
LA was only three games away from being a .500 team last year, and they’ve got holes to fill with retirements (Kent, Maddux), and free agency (Lowe, Penny, possibly Manny). Plus, their best starter—the Buzzsaw— had offseason surgery.
And they’ve also got some good young players who should get better (like Kemp and Ethier) and they have tons of money which should allow them to pick up a corner OFer who should be very good in 2009 (like Many, Dunn, Burrell or Abreu). They’ll end up with one of them. And the D’Backs are also better than the Giants in my estimation, and they are considerably younger, so the development of young players will help them as well. I don’t think the Giants are particularly close. They were awful in 2008 and adding RJ, Affleldt, Howry and Renteria doesn’t get them close to first in my opinion. Instead of spending all of this money (and they have spent quite a bit), they should be trying to shed some of their contracts (not the biggest ones that they can’t move but some of the medium-sized ones) in exchange for a prospect or two. If they have to eat some money to move those contracts, so be it. Clearly they could have afforded it.
It seems like this strategy at best will allow them to just squeak into the playoffs by being the tallest midget in their division, and then get quickly knocked out by a genuinely good team. What’s the good in that? Does that help them be better in 2010? I don’t think so. Rebuilding, on the other hand, would have made more sense, and helped them get on the road to maybe actually becoming a good team.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 28, 2008 1:57 AM EST up reply actions
I think Sabean may be trying to do both at the same time...
They’re probably going to start three rookies 25 years of age or younger in the infield next year—-Sandoval at 3B, Burriss at 2B, and possibly Bowker/Ishikawa at 1B. Their core of starters (Lincecum/Cain/Sanchez) are all 26 or under. Zito’s not going anywhere with his contract, but isn’t ancient—the same age as Meche.
Maybe Sabean sees the opportunity to stay competitive while slowly overhauling the roster and ridding himself of vets he brought in while he had Bonds (Durham,Vizquel already gone….Roberts possibly next?) I’m not saying it’s the best plan for success everywhere, but I could see how an NL West team may be more willing to try it than a team in a stronger division.
I do agree that “being the tallest midget” may seem a little short-sighted, but it worked for Saint Louis a few years ago. I wouldn’t want to have to match up with their rotation in a short series (or any playoff series for that matter).
by Fernando Vina School of Linguistics on Dec 28, 2008 2:15 AM EST up reply actions
And I think doing both at the same time is doing what you should be doing in a half-assed way
You can’t have it all. You can certainly mix young player with older players. But you can’t both “win-now” and rebuild at the same time. Sabean has chosen the former over the latter, and I don’t think it will be at al successful.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 28, 2008 2:21 AM EST up reply actions
Giants
were 18 games under .500 against division opponents and .500 against everyone else. An improved pen starting pitching and lineup should help them improve those records. DBacks are younger and maybe weaker in the rotation, pen and lineup if their young players play the way they did from May 18th on. Big IF but they didn’t live up to the hype last year and maybe they don’t fill that huge potential.
As for the Dodgers I agree that they will probably resign Manny but who knows what type of Manny they will be getting. They would’ve been smarter to sign him early and keep him happy. They might be getting the “I don’t care Manny” which isn’t the same player they got last year. They were 7 games over .500 with him over 2 months so its not like they were some unbelieveable force. One can’t expect Manny to be 1.232 player over a whole season with the losses they are gonna sustain in the rotation they are probably slightly better than .500.
The Giants are probably slightly below .500 but a swing to above .500 wouldn’t be totally unheard of. Just a swap of Matt Cains record (8-14 to 14-8) which is justified would be a 12 game improvement
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
i think those stats are reversed...
the standings i saw showed that SF was .500 (half of their wins were in-division) against the NL West and 12 games under against the rest of MLB.
they also played in more 1-run games than any other team in the NL, going 31-21.
by Fernando Vina School of Linguistics on Dec 28, 2008 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
Ya you are right I misread it
they are .500 against the West
19-13 vs East
11-29 vs Central
6-12 interleague
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
They might be getting the "I don’t care Manny" which isn’t the same player they got last year.
Has Manny played like he doesn’t care at other points in his career? How well did he hit then?
One can’t expect Manny to be 1.232 player over a whole season
No, but one can expect him to be a very good .940 player. Perhaps with playing in the weaker league and a considerably weaker division he can continue to do even better than that.
The Giants are probably slightly below .500
The Giants won 72 games. Their second order wins (a more luck-neutral measure of how good well they played and how many games they should have won, like Pythag record only better) were just under 71. Do you think they’ve improved by 8-9 wins (80-90 net runs)? I certainly don’t.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 28, 2008 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
Has Manny played like he doesn’t care at other points in his career? How well did he hit then?
Why don’t you ask the Red Sox that question? They found a reason to move him. There is a reason there are far less teams interested in him and it isn’t just because of his defense.
Do you think they’ve improved by 8-9 wins (80-90 net runs)?
I don’t think they have but I wouldn’t be shocked by it either. You act as if the Dodgers and DBacks are the Yanks and Sox, they are young and unproven talent. TL, Cain, Johnson and their bp should pretty decent. I wouldn’t put them as the favorite but in the NL West they could be in the mix.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
Why don’t you ask the Red Sox that question? They found a reason to move him.
And got good value for him too.
There is a reason there are far less teams interested in him and it isn’t just because of his defense.
It has a lot to do with his age and asking price. A guy who is looking for $20M per year guaranteed for his age 37, 38 and 39 seasons isn’t going to get a lot of interest in this market. His bat will be declining with age and if you add in his poor and declining defense, that explains the lack of interest in him. He’s going to end up coming cheaper and for fewer years.
. You act as if the Dodgers and DBacks are the Yanks and Sox,
No, I’m acting like the Giants are the Giants. And if in that poor division they were a 71-win team (second order wins) last year, I don’t see them being 80-90 wins better this year. And if they are 80-90 wins better, they’re still below .500 and not in contention in that or any division. 85 wins could take that division. I don’t think the Giants have a realistic shot of winning 85 games. I don’t think they have much of a shot at winning 82 games.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 28, 2008 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
Whoops, I meant 80-90 RUNS better
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 28, 2008 7:16 PM EST up reply actions
8M is a bit on the stiff side
but in that division they have a legit shot to contend especially with the addition of Pablo Sandoval this year. He is possibly the 3-4 hitter they needed to put some pop back in the lineup. Arizona will struggle to score runs without Dunn and Hudson as will the Dodgers if they don’t resign Manny. Overall in a weak division the Giants offseason moves maybe put them back in the race. 8M/1 is nothing to this team considering the contracts they are already loaded down with.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
Count me in agreement.
Of course, if his back goes out, this will look like a waste. But, this will help them this year. The NL West is wide open, especially if Dunn and Manny are relocated.
the dbacks have quite a few hitters who could really break out...
and they only had dunn for like 2 months, so him being gone isnt a huge adjustment
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Dec 27, 2008 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
They have a lot of potential
but I believe they have made their rotation weaker with the losses of Owings/RJ. I would like to see their young bats realize all their potential because I probably the DBacks (Mark Grace) more than anyone else besides the Royals. There is definitely alot of upside there with Chris Young, Justin Upton, Conor Jackson, Mark Reynolds, Stephen Drew and Chris Snyder. All relatively young and talented plus Mark Grace is fun to listen to.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
I think the Giants will finish in third as a result of these upgrades,
but I don’t see them as getting right back in contention. Thus, i can’t really agree RJ was a good idea. He’d have been a good addition for a team that really is in “win now” mode.
Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.
1/$5M wouldn't have been so bad
for a team like the Royals, but he only wanted a west coast team with Spring Training in Arizona. We had half that. $8M seems a little high for a 44 year old that will throw up some stinkers.
this type of behavior by teams not residing in Kansas City
doesn’t bother me too much.
The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib
As laughably bad as the NL West was for most of last year....nobody can feel they're out of contention
I don’t see how San Fran’s organization and fanbase can feel like they’ve got no shot of competing in their division. The time for that type of thinking was a few years ago once they let Bonds walk. Are they the favorites? No. But I don’t see how one could say they can’t contend against the NL West teams. Winn, Lewis, Sandoval, Rowand, Molina, Renteria, et al. can all get some things done offensively….a healthy Cain and Sanchez can dominate at times, and we know about Lincecum.
If the Royals were in the NL West, we’d be thinking we’d have a shot at competing for the division—especially after our success last year against the division. I’d rather have a Randy Johnson one a 1 year/8 MM contract in the NL West than our current 2 year/9.5 MM deal for Farnsworth….or just tossing 1 year/3-4 MM at a Tomko-level retread like we did last year.
by Fernando Vina School of Linguistics on Dec 27, 2008 7:25 PM EST reply actions
I think it's a GREAT signing.
Mainly because the Giants have money to burn, and need to put butts in the seats. They can afford to spend 8 million to make their team marginally better for the benefit of their fans – and the division sucks, so they are definitely not out of contention. If they have the money to spend, and if Randy can do what he did last year again, why the hell not? It’s pretty retarded IMO to say that just since you don’t think they are “Close to contention” they should just sit on their hands and throw out some garbage career minor league starter every 5th day.
realistically speaking
Strange part of this story...
Why was it reportedly so important to Johnson that he sign with a team that happens to spend a few weeks training in Arizona rather than Florida? This just strikes me as a little odd…I can understand wanting to spend the full season living in a city that was reasonably convenient for my family, but spring training? If I were receiving an $8 million salary, I’d be happy to train wherever my team wanted me to in order to get ready for the season. Just kind of strange…
Could be that he knew he’d get around $8M from someone and so whether it was $7M from one team or $9M from another might not have meant as much to him as where he was going to be able to live for the month and a half that pitchers spend at spring training. I’ve read many times people theorize that for players who have made tens or hundreds of millions of dollars over their careers, towards the end one or two million dollars here or there isn’t usually as important to them as things like playing for a contender, where their family lives and things like that.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 28, 2008 9:35 PM EST up reply actions
he's got 4 kids ages 10-14 and lives in paradise valley...
which is 15 miles from phoenix…maybe being a parent and spending some extra time with his kids really matters to him…an extra 45 days at home means alot when you’ll be spending half of the next 6 months flying around the country for work…
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Dec 28, 2008 9:47 PM EST up reply actions
Supposedly
That was a factor for Kerry Wood too.
Maybe both Kerry and Randy want to be close to home when they rehab?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 29, 2008 10:56 AM EST up reply actions
I don't think its a good move
But I don’t think the Giants are that far from competing. Its a really weak division, and they should improve considerably by just taking crappy players like Omar Vizquel/Brian Bocock, Jose Castillo, John Bowker and Rich Aurilia off the field.
They land a Dunn and I can see them competing if things break just right for them.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
It's a good signing for the Giants
This is a team in perpetual “draw 3 million now” mode, and signing The Big Unit will help them to keep their fans coming back, even though they haven’t played in the postseason since 2003. They’re going to market their Cy Young winners now for all they’re worth.
There are some very stupid contracts on this roster, some of high magnitude and some of middle magnitude, but I don’t think Johnson’s is one of them.
About the arguments put forth in this discussion, that 1) they can’t win so 2) they shouldn’t spend the money:
1) Speaking probabilistically, how likely is it for a team that ranks 3rd in its division talent-wise in December, based on prior performance of the players on its roster, to finish first the following October? I haven’t run the numbers, but I think it’s a pretty common thing — with 6 divisions, I’d guess there are more years in which it happens than there are in which it doesn’t. Players break out, declines are temporarily reversed, teams outperform. It may not happen to the Giants in 2009, but I find argument that proceeds from the assumption that it can’t happen to be pretty silly, especially coming from people who claim to be numbers guys.
2) Is this contract likely to drive salaries up for all free agents in the future? No. Are the Giants paying significantly more for the level of performance they can reasonably anticipate for this free agent than other clubs are paying for theirs (pick your measurement of value and your method of projection)? Also no. Will this contract squeeze their budget for signing and developing amateur players? Again, no. So what’s the argument against spending the money? This guy is likely to help put people in the seats and to keep the Giants within shouting distance in the division until September. What’s the downside, other than that there’s a non-zero probability that his back will explode and spray shards of vertebrae from Pacifica to Livermore?
by 2X2L on Dec 29, 2008 11:46 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
his contract numbers are similar to what they paid to Durham last year before trading him...
it’s not like they’re going to be burdened by this deal. And I can’t claim to know much about their farm system, but the little I have read talked about how RJ will allow their two best young prospects one more year to develop before being brought up…..so I’m not sure how many internal options they had, especially after Correia signed in San Diego.
by Fernando Vina School of Linguistics on Dec 29, 2008 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
One option for rounding out the starting 5 before they signed Johnson was Noah Lowry, coming back from an unusual surgery and multiple setbacks in rehab. They’ve also got several solid-to-excellent prospects, none with a track record as yet in the high minors. Kevin Pucetas is the guy whose name keeps showing up in the local papers, not because he’s their best prospect but at least in part because at age 24 the risk of moving him up rapidly is lower than it is for the others. Tim Alderson, Madison Bumgarner, and Henry Sosa each have significant promise — Sosa is 23, Alderson just 20, and Bumgarner still a teenager.
So without a signing like this, it’s possible to argue that they were going to be taking a bigger risk than this signing represents, either by depending on Lowry to regain his pre-injury form or by moving one or more pitching prospects up to the majors very rapidly.
On another note
And I have brought this up before, but what about Pedro Martinez to KC? Any chance he would want to pitch here?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I think signing him to a contract with a modest base salary and performance incentives is a good idea, but apparently both he and the Mets are interested in working something like that out to keep him in New York. If they don’t come to terms in the next couple of weeks, I think Moore & Co. should make the attempt to bring him to KC.
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