BL (Bozeman): It appears to me that Dayton Moore in essence swapped Leo Nunez, RamRam, and any semblance of financial flexibility for Coco Crisp, Mike Jacobs and Kyle Farnsworth? Doesn't this series of moves seem, um, counter-productive? Do you see a worthwhile plan here?
Christina Kahrl: You left out spending $1.8 million on Horacio Ramirez (IIRC). I like the Crisp move as a win-now kind of transaction, but I savaged the Jacobs move for cause--some might think he's a win-now pickup, but he's just a placeholder, and Farnsworth and Ramirez are even less. This isn't progress, it's cosmetics, and like anything hastily slapped together, it'll melt in the summer sun.
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I get a kick at
how many baseball people seem to like the Coco-RamRam trade and kill the Jacobs-Nunez trade.
Jacobs sucks at defense but it is first base defense hardly SS or CF. I doubt anyone could hardly be as bad as the defensive metrics are at 1b with the possible exception of Adam Dunn (butchered it a couple years ago). Jacobs had terrible BABIP luck last year and still hit 30+ HR’s plus he essentially is a 3M+ rental to see if Billy or Kila can develop and he does something well that this team really lacks and that is not just hit HR’s its hit vs Righties.
Plus KC gave up an injury prone reliever to get him as opposed to RamRam who is the better and probably better longterm pitcher for a more expensive CF at a position KC already has a solid option.
I think GMDM performance this offseason should be graded as an F as whole. He not only underestimated the devaluation of the current market and loaded the payroll down his Farnsworth move was laughably bad. Fortunately for all of us none of these moves are longterm disasters. Furcal for 4/44 could’ve been an absolute crippler if he was injured and never able to return to form. The rest can all be undone within 6mo to a year. Hopefully he learns next year to lay back let the market develop a tad and then make some moves.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
by kcscoliny on Dec 29, 2008 1:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
That's a pretty fair take
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by RoyalsRetro on Dec 29, 2008 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think you are overestimating Jacobs
His biggest problem isn’t his defense. His defense sucks, which counts in his evaluation, but it is clearly a secondary or tertiary issue for him. The real problem is his hitting. He’ll hit for some power. But in the tougher league, will he be able to manage a .500 SLG? Maybe, but maybe not. And his OBP will likely be close to .300, maybe .315. And a .260/.315/.485 first baseman is a poor hitting first baseman.
And you assume that he was brought in just to be a one-year placeholder. I hope Moore sees him that way. But Moore has shown in the past that he likes low-OBP guys with decent raw power in a corner position and is willing to give such a player a good deal of money. Don’t be surprised if Jacobs is the Royals first baseman in 2010, making over $5M. It’s not guaranteed, but it is a reasonable possibility.
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by NYRoyal on Dec 29, 2008 3:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Those same assumptions can be made about Coco
yet he is more expensive and KC gave up more talent IMO to get him. If the odds board was out there I think the liklihood of Coco coming back is greater than Jacobs just based on the others around him. Jacobs is gonna have to perform and hope that Butler, Shealy and Kila don’t while Coco only really needs to be average because other than DDJ who KC seems to be moving to a corner spot (I am assuming because otherwise why do we need another CF). KC doesn’t have a whole lot of CF options unless Maier somehow steps up.
Jacobs isn’t a 32 HR guy this year but I’m hoping Hillman learned from last years Gload mistake and platoons Jacobs as a RH 1b/Dh. With 400-450 AB’s heavily weighted against RH’s Jacobs could put up some solid numbers 20-25 HR with 30 2b’s. His BABIP should bounce back to what it has in the past and I don’t believe his defense is quite as bad as last years metrics show it to be. Toss in one of the three Kila, Butler or Shealy being a decent player and I wouldn’t have a problem with Jacobs coming back for ’10.
Those are BIG IFS when we consider Hillmans track record but you gotta hope for the best prior to the season otherwise why even follow this team.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
by kcscoliny on Dec 29, 2008 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Those same assumptions can be made about Coco
What assumptions? That he’s a poor defensive 1B who is likely to hit well below average for his position? Crisp is a CFer who is projected to hit a bit below average for his position and defend a bit above average for his position, making him roughly average as a CFer. Jacobs should be below average for his position both in defense and offense. So how are the two similar?
Jacobs isn’t a 32 HR guy this year but I’m hoping Hillman learned from last years Gload mistake and platoons Jacobs as a RH 1b/Dh. With 400-450 AB’s heavily weighted against RH’s Jacobs could put up some solid numbers 20-25 HR with 30 2b’s.
One of the reasons the Jacobs trade was so bad is that there’s absolutely no reason to believe Hillman will use him in that limited way that maximizes his value.
His BABIP should bounce back to what it has in the past
And when his BABIP was higher in the past, his OPS was still .798 and .775, with a low OBP.
and I don’t believe his defense is quite as bad as last years metrics show it to be.
I hope that’s true. But from the metrics I’ve seen, the only question is whether defense is awful or merely bad.
Toss in one of the three Kila, Butler or Shealy being a decent player and I wouldn’t have a problem with Jacobs coming back for ’10.
So, spend $5M+ for a player who is no better than the existing options. That makes even less sense in 2010 than it does for 2009.
Those are BIG IFS when we consider Hillmans track record but you gotta hope for the best prior to the season otherwise why even follow this team.
Hope for the best, yes. But I expect what seems most likely given the available evidence.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 29, 2008 6:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
One of the reasons the Jacobs trade was so bad is that there’s absolutely no reason to believe Hillman will use him in that limited way that maximizes his value.
We only have one seasons worth of data to back up our assertions so I’ll wait and see.
So, spend $5M+ for a player who is no better than the existing options. That makes even less sense in 2010 than it does for 2009.
5M should only get used if he performs and Kila,Shealy, Butler don’t. While Coco’s is pretty much a lock to get excercised unless he vastly underperforms.
I have to believe that Jacobs playing versus lefties is gonna be a hard sell with the options of Olivo, Butler and Shealy all on the roster. If below is the starting 25man roster no other aquisitions I just don’t see how Hillman given the vs. LH success of last year can keep Jacobs on the field vs lefties. If he does then it will be another long season.
DDJ
Crisp
Guillen
Teahen
Aviles
Callaspo
Olivo
Jacobs
Buck
Butler
Shealy
Gordon
German
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
by kcscoliny on Dec 29, 2008 6:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
5M should only get used if he performs and Kila,Shealy, Butler don’t.
One of the problems with the Jacobs acquisition is that it will likely significantly decrease the playing time for Shealy and Kila, perhaps even Butler. So Shealy and Kila might not even get the chance to “perform.”
While Coco’s is pretty much a lock to get excercised unless he vastly underperforms.
That’s guesswork. So if Coco performs poorly, you think he’s a lock to have his option picked up for $8M, while a .800 OPS from Jacobs just a maybe? Please. Not only is it guesswork, it’s exceptionally poor guesswork. While there aren’t in-house CF options, there is a world of CF options out there for the Royals to acquire. Jacobs is a significant risk to block players who are as good or better in 2009 as well as 2010.
I have to believe that Jacobs playing versus lefties is gonna be a hard sell with the options of Olivo, Butler and Shealy all on the roster.
You “have to believe” it because you want to believe it. Moore brought him in to be a starting player. Hillman will keep trotting him out there day in and day out, just as he did with Guillen. Hillman’s past performance throughout the 2008 season should tell you something about his future performance.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 29, 2008 7:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
“You "have to believe" it because you want to believe it. Moore brought him in to be a starting player. Hillman will keep trotting him out there day in and day out, just as he did with Guillen. Hillman’s past performance throughout the 2008 season should tell you something about his future performance.”
Speaking of guesswork…
It’s hard to compare Jacobs and Guillen…they are two different animals.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on Dec 29, 2008 7:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was comparing HIllman's use of Guillen vs. Hillman's potential use of Guillen
Wasn’t that obvious? When Guillen was playing poorly (which was often), did he ever bench him? Did he even decrease his exposure to so that he faced more good matchups and fewer bad matchups? No to both. He gave Guillen more PA’s than any other Royal. So why should I think that Hillman will limit Jacobs exposure other than wishful thinking?
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 29, 2008 7:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
makeup
Guillen would have freaked out and affected the whole team if he was benched. DM knew that when he signed him (and that’s an argument for another day). And no, there’s not much the manager or anyone else can do when that happens. Jacobs won’t do that…he has great makeup and was often sit vs LHP with the Marlins without saying a word.
I’m guessing it’s at least part of the reason Gibbons was brought in to be bench coach…is to hold guys in check.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on Dec 29, 2008 7:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So you think Hillman wanted to bench Guillen but felt like he couldn't?
I don’t agree. I think Hillman and Moore have the same philosophy about the importance of power in the middle of the lineup. I think they both think that power is so scarce on the Royals that you need to have what they think is good power guys in that lineup as much as possible. That’s why Guillen was out there every game he could possibly hobble out there to play. And that’s why Jacobs will likely be an everyday player.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 29, 2008 8:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not exactly
Not bench him for an extended period of time, but yes I bet he would have liked to sit him more when he was hurt or in the middle of a big time funk. He was careful with Gordon late in the season but was not with Guillen.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on Dec 29, 2008 8:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You act as if he
had a ton of options last year.
You certainly aren’t gonna sit your new FA acquisition for the first month of the season then he heated up during May and June. He sucked during July but Teahen wasn’t performing much better .553 July OPS. What were his options? He was supposed to sit the 12M dollar man coming off two outstanding months he did sit him in July more than any other month.
As much as I didn’t like the way Hillman performed I’m not gonna bang on him that much given his options. TPJ, Teahen, Gathright, Gload, Maier, Banni, etc. Its GMDM’s job to give him the tools to succeed and GMDM didn’t do that last year.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
by kcscoliny on Dec 29, 2008 8:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hey played far too many bad players too often
Guillen, Gload, Gathright. And he showed very little desire or willingness to platoon mediocre players to maximize performance. So I think the evidence and his words show that he’ll value Jacobs power too much to sit him and that he likely won’t utilize any kind of platoon.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 29, 2008 8:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Guillen doesn't have the severe platoon splits that Jacobs has
by Fernando Vina School of Linguistics on Dec 29, 2008 10:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
are you sure?
not for his career, but guillen’s splits the last two years have been quite exaggerated.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on Dec 29, 2008 11:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Indeed he does
And I wasn’t just talking about platoon splits. I was also talking about the extended streaks of suck that Guillen experienced. Even when he was limping around and couldn’t hit his weight, Hillman continued to put him in the lineup.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 29, 2008 11:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He did the same with pretty much every player
he was forced to. DDJ went thru a 600 OPS month, Teahen a 550 Butler who knows how low it was. Hillman didn’t have many options.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
by kcscoliny on Dec 30, 2008 12:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Options
He didn’t have to play Gload so much. He didn’t have to play Gathright so much. He didn’t have to play Guillen when he was injured and not hitting. He had options which could have avoided so much playing time for those players. He had options and chose not to use them.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 12:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
One of the problems with the Jacobs acquisition is that it will likely significantly decrease the playing time for Shealy and Kila, perhaps even Butler. So Shealy and Kila might not even get the chance to "perform."
Hillmans job shouldn’t be to cater to young talent. Shealy deserves a chance in ST
That’s guesswork. So if Coco performs poorly, you think he’s a lock to have his option picked up for $8M, while a .800 OPS from Jacobs just a maybe? Please. Not only is it guesswork, it’s exceptionally poor guesswork. While there aren’t in-house CF options, there is a world of CF options out there for the Royals to acquire. Jacobs is a significant risk to block players who are as good or better in 2009 as well as 2010.
How is it anymore guesswork than what you are proposing oh ya it isn’t its just your opinion is greater than mine. Coco vs less players is more likely to stay on the team as opposed to Jacobs vs many that seems logical and with GMDM track record of aquiring players I don’t know if aquiring a CF is what we want.
You "have to believe" it because you want to believe it. Moore brought him in to be a starting player. Hillman will keep trotting him out there day in and day out, just as he did with Guillen. Hillman’s past performance throughout the 2008 season should tell you something about his future performance.
I do want to believe it but I hope Hillman learned from his mistake of last year. I don’t know how he coached in the minors or Japan so I am hoping he isn’t locked into one way of coaching.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
by kcscoliny on Dec 29, 2008 8:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hillmans job shouldn’t be to cater to young talent. Shealy deserves a chance in ST
Cater to young talent? Shealy and Kila are likely nearly as good as Jacobs right now. That’s a key reason it made no sense to give up Nunez and $3.5M for Jacobs. And my comment was in response to you saying that Jacobs will only be tendered if he performs better than Shealy and Kila. His existence on the 25-man roster and the fact that he’ll be a starter means that they’ll get little or no chance to perform, which increases the risk that we’re stuck with Jacobs for a second year.
How is it anymore guesswork than what you are proposing oh ya it isn’t its just your opinion is greater than mine.
You’re the one who called it “a lock.” Your certitude is misplaced and your reasoning was flawed.
Coco vs less players is more likely to stay on the team as opposed to Jacobs vs many that seems logical
Of course that seems logical to you. What you are choosing to ignore is that the universe of options is not limited to Coco vs. other CFers in the organization. The thing that makes him less likely to stay around is his $8M.
and with GMDM track record of aquiring players I don’t know if aquiring a CF is what we want.
So you’d rather overpay for a roughly average Crisp? Your argument is getting increasingly bizarre.
I do want to believe it but I hope Hillman learned from his mistake of last year.
Did he show any signs that he learned from his mistakes with regard to how he used players over the course of the season? Did he at any point show that he understood how to platoon mediocre players to get the most out of them? He didn’t. If he didn’t know how to do that in 2008, then there’s no reason to believe he’s going to suddenly see the light in 2009.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 29, 2008 9:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Shealy and Kila are likely nearly as good as Jacobs right now. That’s a key reason it made no sense to give up Nunez and $3.5M for Jacobs. And my comment was in response to you saying that Jacobs will only be tendered if he performs better than Shealy and Kila. His existence on the 25-man roster and the fact that he’ll be a starter means that they’ll get little or no chance to perform, which increases the risk that we’re stuck with Jacobs for a second year.
As much as I hate it it was likely Kila was gonna start in Omaha regardless of any offseason moves just to see if ’08 was a fluke. The jury is still out on Shealy one hot September versus AAAA pitchers does not a career make. A Shealy/Butler/Jacobs platoon seems more than likely or maybe even a Shealy/Jacobs platoon if GMDM chooses to start Butler in Omaha.
You’re the one who called it "a lock." Your certitude is misplaced and your reasoning was flawed.
That was a response to your ’10 projection above.
Of course that seems logical to you. What you are choosing to ignore is that the universe of options is not limited to Coco vs. other CFers in the organization. The thing that makes him less likely to stay around is his $8M.
Trades and FA opportunities exist to replace Jacobs as well there are always a few options for both the only difference is the inhouse replacement doesn’t exist in Coco’s case.
So you’d rather overpay for a roughly average Crisp? Your argument is getting increasingly bizarre.
I don’t like Crisp on this team regardless and I do want them to cut him but GMDM ‘08 track record doesn’t look pretty he might sign Andruw Jones for 4/32 at his current ’08 pace lol.
Did he show any signs that he learned from his mistakes with regard to how he used players over the course of the season? Did he at any point show that he understood how to platoon mediocre players to get the most out of them? He didn’t. If he didn’t know how to do that in 2008, then there’s no reason to believe he’s going to suddenly see the light in 2009.
I think he did make strides during the year. He stopped playing Gload so much when he was given a decent option and instead of continuing to play TPJ he pretty much rode him on the pine once Aviles proved he was the guy. I was actually surprised TPJ didn’t start more games once Grudz and Callaspo were out during that stretch. Also he ran less once the team proved they were incapable of it. I think that took alot of restraint from him given what I hear of his coaching style in Japan. He obviously has a long way to go until he is the Belichek of baseball but I don’t think he is quite stuck slamming square pegs in round holes. He just wasn’t given many options by last years pathetic 25 man.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
by kcscoliny on Dec 30, 2008 12:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
As much as I hate it it was likely Kila was gonna start in Omaha regardless of any offseason moves just to see if ’08 was a fluke.
I don’t have a problem with Kila starting the season in Omaha. He could use a bit more seasoning and to see if 08 was the real deal. If Jacobs hadn’t been acquired, there would have been room for him on the big club in May or June if/when he proved he was ready. Now there is no such room.
The jury is still out on Shealy one hot September versus AAAA pitchers does not a career make.
Sure, the jury is still out on him. But it would have made more sense in 2008 to give him some significant AB’s to see if he really is any good. When the option you replace him with is a considerably below average overall 1B who costs $3.5M, such replacement doesn’t make much sense.
A Shealy/Butler/Jacobs platoon seems more than likely or maybe even a Shealy/Jacobs platoon if GMDM chooses to start Butler in Omaha.
What I think is likely is that Jacobs is going to get regular, nearly everyday playing time with Butler and/or Shealy sharing time at the other 1B/DH position. Gotta love that power in the middle of the lineup! Hillman has talked about how that kind of power transforms the whole lineup! Yikes.
Trades and FA opportunities exist to replace Jacobs as well there are always a few options for both the only difference is the inhouse replacement doesn’t exist in Coco’s case.
And Jacobs is cheaper and Moore really likes his power. This all began because you assumed that Jacobs is just a one-season placeholder. While that is possible, we certainly don’t know that. There is a serious risk that he could be around for more than one year. Assuming that he won’t because there are other options to replace him is unrealistic.
I don’t like Crisp on this team regardless and I do want them to cut him but GMDM ‘08 track record doesn’t look pretty he might sign Andruw Jones for 4/32 at his current ’08 pace lol.
I don’t know how much of this is serious and how much of it is a joke. But if your argument is that the Royals should keep an overprice player because Moore might acquire an even more overpriced player, then I think that’s a really weak argument. Yes Moore has done a bad job signing FA’s. That doesn’t mean we should keep overpriced mediocrities for fear of something worse. Keeping Crisp or Jacobs helps to insure that the team doesn’t move forward past mediocrity. I’d rather Moore have the money to make some changes which could possibly help the team take a step forward than be certain that we’re not going anywhere.
I think he did make strides during the year. He stopped playing Gload so much when he was given a decent option
He played Gload regularly until September call ups and I think he played Shealy then because the organization wanted to take a look at him, not because he finally had a better option. He had better options throughout the year. Butler could have gone to first and any number of players could have DH’d.
but I don’t think he is quite stuck slamming square pegs in round holes. He just wasn’t given many options by last years pathetic 25 man.
Again, you ignore his consistent, season-long excessive usage of players like Gload, Gathright and Guillen when he had options. I understand that you want Hillman to be better and that you’re hopeful that he will. I hope he’ll be better too. There just isn’t evidence that he understands who should play, when they should play and why they should play. Unfortunately, there is considerable evidence against him in that regard. Can he change? Yes. Should we expect him to? There’s no reason to.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 12:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Again, you ignore his consistent, season-long excessive usage of players like Gload, Gathright and Guillen when he had options. I understand that you want Hillman to be better and that you’re hopeful that he will. I hope he’ll be better too. There just isn’t evidence that he understands who should play, when they should play and why they should play. Unfortunately, there is considerable evidence against him in that regard. Can he change? Yes. Should we expect him to? There’s no reason to.
You are using one season with a limited roster and limited options to judge a coach that has coached for multiple seasons.
I am not in love with the Jacobs move I just think the Crisp move is worse because the liklihood he comes back is greater and he cost more money and a better reliever. Yet I’ve hear more people complain about the Jacobs move compared to Crisp.
He played Gload regularly until September call ups and I think he played Shealy then because the organization wanted to take a look at him, not because he finally had a better option. He had better options throughout the year. Butler could have gone to first and any number of players could have DH’d.
You and I have no idea why he played Shealy so that is just your uninformed opinion. As for the Butler decision I complained about it at times last year too but the way Butler was playing at times he didn’t really give Hillman the best chance to win that day and that is his job. The biggest crime I see from last year was the two months of playing time TPJ got after watching Aviles stroke it in ST and kill it in Omaha for 2 full months. That is as much GMDM fault as it is Hillmans.
Jacobs is more than likely gonna have to prove himself as a decent option to come back for ’10. If Kila has a repeat performance, Butler lives up to the potential or Shealy proves last September was for real I would doubt KC brings him back especially if he underperforms. Shealy and Kila both have the power to match Jacobs and are better OB options and Butler has a better overall bat and probably an equal glove. None of the three have performed at the subpar level Jacobs has at the pros for an extended period of time.
Shealy has a career line of .764 OPS in 538 AB’s
Butler has a .754 OPS and Kila has one good minor league season under his belt. Jacobs has a better OPS and more power than all three. If the argument is defense well that is a weak argument because all three of those guys are no better than average. Money well yes Kila and Shealy are cheaper but KC already has 2.5M (counting what he’ll make this year) wrapped up in Billy so its not like he is all that much cheaper when you are just talking about ‘09. There is no reason to assume Jacobs will be on the ’10 roster if he doesn’t perform this season.
My conclusion is this Billy is my favorite player and Kila isn’t far behind I hope they both knock the cover off the ball and prove Jacobs and Shealy to be useless platoon options at best. I am also halfway excited that 1 of the 4 will probably succeed this year and KC might have a longterm option at 1b for once as well as it appears they are finally realizing 1b defense over pop is the worst decision a team can make. ie Doug M., Ross Gload, etc.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
by kcscoliny on Dec 30, 2008 11:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nah, come on!
Hillman will keep trotting him out there day in and day out, just as he did with Guillen.
It’s not like Hillman kept trotting out Gload, TPJ, Gathright, and… uh, never mind. Doh!
But, you’re right. I’m very worried that Butler and Shealy are going to miss out on a LOT of reps at 1B because of this. I still like people’s idea of making Jacobs a half time DH, but I also don’t believe Hillman will do that, OR be allowed to do that.
I AM intangible!
by kabrink on Dec 29, 2008 11:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
she likes the crisp move as a 'win now' type of proposition...
the problem as i see it, and assume she sees it by how she stated it, was that the royals shouldnt be making win now moves at this juncture if it in any way hurts the future outlook…which that move did
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Dec 29, 2008 10:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
how does it hurt the future outlook?
trading a reliever hardly does that…unless the reliever is among the elite in the game…which RamRam was not. Coco is not blocking anyone unless you wanted Costa to start next year.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on Dec 29, 2008 11:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't like the idea of trading a good setup man for one year of a league average CFer
I think that’s an ill-advised win-now move for a team that now projects to win about 81 games.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 29, 2008 11:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and i think crisp is better than that...
because I think his defense is f’ing awesome and saves just as many runs as any CF in the game with his defense (maybe except Gomez of the twinkies). you can throw any “defensive metric” in my face and I won’t buy it.
his option will be exercised anyways if he’s “league average” as you say.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on Dec 30, 2008 1:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Can I ask a few question?
And these are genuine questions not snark. If you trust your own scouting eye on defense more than any metric, how trustworthy do you think your own scouting opinion is? What is your baseball history? How many adult years have you been following baseball, and do you have professional baseball experience outside of being fan (I’m not talking about playing, but being involved in pro ball in some way)? And how much have you seen of Crisp to form such an opinion. The defensive stats say he’s been up and down. This might make sense given that he’s been healthy some of the time and injured some of the time. Have you seen him play a lot when he’s healthy and when he’s injured?
I ask these questions because I’ve been following baseball for a long time and I don’t even trust my own amateur scouting. And that’s not because I don’t think I know much about range or arm or any number of other tools; I just think amateur scouts like ourselves don’t have particularly reliable opinions on these kinds of things. Now, like you I see a lot of limitations in advanced defensive metrics. Even those that created them see their limitations. But I don’t think we should just throw them out the window as being completely meaningless. I think those metrics combined with scouting reports, scouts’ opinions, analysts’ opinions and our own amateur scouting opinions should all be used to evaluate a player’s defense.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 1:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it's not that i think my opinion is end all be all
it’s that I think defensive metrics suck…and you know that i have made that extremely clear for a good amount of time. i do not think it is possible to quantify defense at this point in time. i will gladly use a stat that comes out once it is trustworthy in my opinion…but that has yet to surface and likely won’t for a while. honestly, if some site would come out that just asked scouts on their opinions of certain players defense…that would be awesome because we’d have something to compare the numbers too to see how good they really are.
as for me seeing crisp…in 2007 he was awesome. in 2008 he wasn’t quite as good but i believe he was injured for part of the season. his range was still exceptional especially going back on the ball and will be a huge help at “the K.” as for how much I saw him…well how can you NOT see him with all those games on ESPN? plus i watch plenty of baseball outside of that…i get some MLB package with my cable.
and as for the last paragraph…i think metrics see him as a slightly above average defender (correct me i’m wrong)…but all those other things you listed think he is an excellent defender. bill james in 2007 said crisp put on the best defensive performance he had ever seen.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on Dec 30, 2008 1:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it’s that I think defensive metrics suck…and you know that i have made that extremely clear for a good amount of time. i do not think it is possible to quantify defense at this point in time.
I don’t think those metrics tell you all you need to know, but I think they give important and meaningful information which when used in concert with other information gives a good but not precise picture of how good a player is defensively.
in 2008 he wasn’t quite as good but i believe he was injured for part of the season.
Over the past several years he’s been dinged up quite a bit which has hurt his performance. That’s one of his negatives. I don’t think we can expect him to be fully healthy all season long. I think he’ll get dinged up again and it could again affect his performance.
and as for the last paragraph…i think metrics see him as a slightly above average defender (correct me i’m wrong)…
That’s right. They are kind of all over the place from year to year and, to some extent from metric to metric. And that is the kind of thing you can expect when you are talking about mostly part-time seasons when he’s been off-and-on healthy and injured. But the overall picture is above average for his position.
. bill james in 2007 said crisp put on the best defensive performance he had ever seen.
That’s true. I’d like to see more sources of scouting reports from 2008. Even at his age, players are slowing. Speed is the first tool to decline. Did he lose a step in 2008 (or half a step)? Will he lose another in 2009? Do the scouts and other subjective analysts (analyzing him with their eyes, not stats) see him as a great defensive CFer, or merely good, or merely average? I’d like to see more of any kind of data. I haven’t really seen much scouting information on him from the 2008 season or after it.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 1:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
“That’s true. I’d like to see more sources of scouting reports from 2008. Even at his age, players are slowing. Speed is the first tool to decline. Did he lose a step in 2008 (or half a step)? Will he lose another in 2009? Do the scouts and other subjective analysts (analyzing him with their eyes, not stats) see him as a great defensive CFer, or merely good, or merely average? I’d like to see more of any kind of data. I haven’t really seen much scouting information on him from the 2008 season or after it.”
paging Sam Mellinger…
he does a good job getting scouts takes on players in his blog. this would be a good one for him.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on Dec 30, 2008 1:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good idea
Hopefully he could get some comments from a handful of scouts. I hate hearing what “one scout said.” Actually, I don’t hate it, but it seems like one tiny data point. Subjective opinions like that often disagree with each other. It would be good to get some kind of general feel on the opinion of multiple scouts who saw him in 2008.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 1:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
5 years of a guy who was very nearly as good as soria last year...
who might be able to close which would allow Soria to start….
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Dec 29, 2008 11:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
also very likely to regress...
something like 2% HR/FB…that ain’t happening again. i thought it was a good idea to sell high and get two years of an above average everyday player.
soria’s not starting anyways. it just won’t happen.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on Dec 30, 2008 1:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
FWIW
Few analysts and no projections see Crisp as an above average everyday player.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 1:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
but we will in KC this season!
:)
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on Dec 30, 2008 6:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Who was it we signed a few years back?
Chris Truby? Is that right? He was a one year deal holding the spot until Gordon was ready? Is that right?
Maybe that’s what Jacobs is until Kila is ready. Maybe this move is designed to protect Kila more than hurt him…. just maybe…
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on Dec 29, 2008 2:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Potentially...
if he could only stay healthy and/or productive enough. That has definitely been a problem for him thus far.
"Quit trying to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring...besides that they're fascist. Throw some groundballs. It's more democratic."
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 29, 2008 2:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So then we turn to
Butler at 1B, or Gload, or Teahen, or Gordon. We have lots of 1B options.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 29, 2008 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Truby
Was supposed to protect Teahen, then got hurt in spring training, so we had to play Teahen.
Teahen kept 3B warm for Gordon.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 29, 2008 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for reminding me.
I didn’t think it was Gordon but I just put him anyway bc I forgot about Teahan.
But we were lacking power last year and this gives us a guy who has hit 30 in the Bigs in the mix. A definate option.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on Dec 29, 2008 6:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
KC was 24 games under .500 against RHP
hopefully Jacobs improves that while Shealy and Butler keep them in the + column against lefties.
Jacobs UZR previous two defensive seasons to ’08 were -4.4 which is below average but not completely god awful. Also Uggla went from -13 to +.3 from ’07 to ’08 maybe Uggla became average with the glove while Jacobs became a statue but most scouts believe Uggla to be a butcher I doubt if one went from butcher to average while the other went from below average to butcher.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
by kcscoliny on Dec 29, 2008 2:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
it is pretty easy to shoot down a trade in December
I’m trying to be patient and see what shakes out in Spring Training.
I really hope that Butler gets a lot of looks at first base.
The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib
by buddyball on Dec 29, 2008 5:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Defensive metrics are a little overrated
They vary so much from year to year with most players it’s hard to be accurate.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on Dec 29, 2008 6:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
that doesn't mean they are overrated
That being said, I think considering defensive metrics for a first baseman is generally a little overrated. It’s an offense-first position.
Now, that also being said, Jacobs’s defense is so atrocious that some people are justifiably saying he shouldn’t be let anywhere near the first sack at the K with a glove on, especially if Shealy makes the 25-man roster. They’ve got a point.
by DarthYoshi on Dec 29, 2008 6:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
lol.
If it worse than Jose Offerman at SS with the Dodgers?
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on Dec 29, 2008 6:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Defensive metrics are very imperfect
That’s why I always try to look at multiple years of metrics (to get a good sample size), and look at multiple different advanced metrics. I think that overall picture gives you a good idea of approximately how good/bad/average a player’s defense is. And that kind of analysis of Jacob’s defensive metrics show that he’s somewhere between bad and awful defensively.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 29, 2008 6:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I knew there was a reason Hillman kept playing Gload!
It’s an offense-first position.
I AM intangible!
by kabrink on Dec 29, 2008 11:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's What I
Said.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Dec 30, 2008 1:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
did i inadvertently plagiarize you?
I am sure I did so to be flattering…
by DarthYoshi on Dec 30, 2008 2:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not Really Plagiarization
But I’ve been saying the only time Jacobs should be around the 1B bag is when we’re batting since his acquisition. I’m a big proponent of the Butler/Shealey/Jacobs 1B/DH platoon, with Butler and Shealey logging all the time at 1B. We’d probably still find 500 PA’s for Jacobs with PH’s and the odd late inning appearance in the field (offensive replacement). He could easily earn his pay as an effective LH DH and PH. God knows he’ll probably PR for Butler at some point, too.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Dec 30, 2008 8:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think it is fairly consistent
…for someone to be up on the Coco/RamRam trade while slamming the Nunez/Jacobs trade, for several reasons:
-We have much more of a need at OF than at 1B. A DDJ/Crisp/Teabag OF would save us lots of runs defensively (I realize Hoagie will start over Teabag if neither is traded, but still, a guy can dream). And I’ve said this before, but 80% of our current starting rotation (read: everyone but Hoch) are flyball pitchers, so OF defense is key. If Crisp comes anywhere close to the defender he was in 2007, he’ll save us runs.
-Moore did a great job of selling high with Ramirez. Functionally, we got Coco Crisp + one year of elite-caliber relief pitching for Jorge De La Rosa. RamRam’s trade value wasn’t going to get any higher without the “closer” tag, which he wasn’t going to obtain so long as Soria was around in the ‘pen.
-Crisp, unlike Jacobs, should help increase the team’s horrific OBP. I think Crisp might be slightly miscast as a leadoff hitter here, but his OBP is still probably going to be around 30 points higher than Jacob’s.
-There is relatively little positional need at 1b/dh, and we all know that.
-Jacobs’s platoon splits are pretty significant, more so than Crisp’s.
-Nunez was less valuable than Ramirez, but also still had upside left.
I’ve said before that the Nunez/Jacobs trade was relatively minor, and I think it is—all the Royals gave up a couple of mil this year and an oft-injured middle reliever. But that doesn’t mean it also wasn’t a mistake. It was.
by DarthYoshi on Dec 29, 2008 6:23 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
agreed with all this
jacobs can be useful if used the right way. if used as a RHP masher and a power bat off the bench late in games (in games started by LHP obviously)…that has plenty of value where he can still get nearly 450 AB’s
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on Dec 29, 2008 7:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree, but what is the relevance of that?
Does anyone think that Hillman is going to use him that way? Sure, anything is possible. He might even move Soria to the rotation, but it’s damned unlikely.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 29, 2008 7:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's similar to the way they used Olivo in the bulk of the starts vs. LHP
I guess it boils down to whether or not Hillman will use Jacobs/Butler/Shealy in a Buck/Olivo type platoon…….or in a Alex Gordon “he must start as much as possible to get experience against both LHP and RHP” role.
by Fernando Vina School of Linguistics on Dec 29, 2008 10:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
One Hopes Hillman
Can fathom the difference between Gordon and Jacobs at their quite different career stages.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Dec 30, 2008 1:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bradford Doolittle
Had a summary of a conversation with Dayton Moore from the end of October on his blog in which Moore (or Doolittle interpreting Moore) seemed to justify these all of the types of moves he made this offseason as more attitude adjustment than building for the future—he wants a major league mindset. His most telling comment was that young players are not going to develop at Kauffman anymore, they’ll go to Omaha instead.
If you apply this thought process to this offseason, guys like Crisp, Jacobs, Farnsworth, HoRam, and even a reclamation project like Waechter are Royals now because they have major league track records, and thus major league attitudes.
It may be that, while Moore says he wants to win right now, I think he means it in a “we want batters who value OBP” way; it may be something he desires, but he’s willing to look past it for other goals. By the time its an all-Dayton Moore team out there (including almost exclusively his free agents, trade guys, and draft picks, as well as staff—think 2012), the talent to really be a championship caliber team will be here. Until then, he’s addressing what he thinks is a core value—a “major league attitude,” and he’s willing to sacrifice some wins in the next 2-3 years for this.
I’m not saying this analysis right, and I’m definitely not saying it’s wise if it is true (the 2006 Grudz/Minky/Elarton contracts were all “real major leaguer” signings). But it seems consistent with Moore’s public comments about blowing up the roster that he’s been making since August. He first and foremost wants the Royals to be seen as a major league organization through and through, and, when he’s reached that goal, the wins will follow.
Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.
by CentralChamps2009 on Dec 29, 2008 11:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
His most telling comment was that young players are not going to develop at Kauffman anymore, they’ll go to Omaha instead.
I like this idea if he would actually stick to it but past track record of Royals management means quick bounces from AA to KC. I think one full season in Omaha for Alex and Billy would have meant a little less adjustment time for both. Hopefully what he is doing with Kila will become the norm.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
by kcscoliny on Dec 30, 2008 11:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
but does it mean more Gload time, because of his "major league track record"?
The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib
by buddyball on Dec 30, 2008 1:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The combination of Shealy and Jacobs
should eliminate Gload even if for some weird reason Butler ends up in Omaha with Kila.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
by kcscoliny on Dec 30, 2008 1:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So what do we do with Gload then?
The million dollar question.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on Dec 30, 2008 6:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The only smart thing to do would be to try to trade him and be willing to eat some of his salary
And if they can’t trade him, then DFA him, which would likely end in him being released.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 6:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that's easy... Gload explosion!!!
Go Royals!
by BabyBlues on Dec 30, 2008 6:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i believe its actually the $1.9 million dollar question...
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Dec 30, 2008 8:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But Tomko Had
This.
Easily worth the $3M writeoff.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Dec 30, 2008 8:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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