Rany likes that the Royals offered arbitration to Grudz

He thinks that Moore and Grudz have a gentleman's agreement that Grudz won't accept arbitration, so he can look for work elsewhere. But Rany thinks this is a good mini-gamble, regardless for some pretty compelling financial reasons involving the value of a supplementary round draft pick and the value of an old second baseman.

Given all that we know about the numbers and what Grudz has said about his likelihood of accepting arbitration, Rany concludes that, "This is a low-risk, high-reward move."

7 months ago NYRoyal Comment 42 comments 0 recs |

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As do I

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 3, 2008 9:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Makes me sort of surprised that the Yankees

Threw away all those draft picks by not offering any arbitration when they had had seven players that were type A or B.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Dec 3, 2008 9:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

They were in higher risk situations

Abreu and Pettitte were going to make in excess of $15M in arbitration.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 3, 2008 10:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

True, but...

they were type A’s or worth about 8 million in the draft vs the 1/6 of the salary you spend on the arbitration, or aotu 2 and a half million, which nets you 5 and a half million to the good apiece.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Dec 3, 2008 10:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So they just threw away

JoGui’s salary for nothing, and that is just for two of the seven.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Dec 3, 2008 10:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd take Pettitte on a 1 year $15 million deal

And Abreu on such a deal wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 3, 2008 10:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would think the same thing about Abreu

but there are rumblings he won’t see much in FA. His defense is dreadful, but even so, he’s still a good hitter, and if $8M/yr is his number, the Royals should try to get in for 2, assuming they can dump Guillen.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 3, 2008 10:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd rather have more money to spend on signing CC or Teixeira

…which is what they have their sights set on. Even the Yankees have a budget, and I don’t think it includes Pettitte and Abreu at $15M+ as well as a huge FA like CC or Tex. They want one of those FA’s, and not the rapidly aging Pettite or Abreu. I think they chose wisely.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 3, 2008 10:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Can't they just print money?

I thought part of the new Yankee Stadium was an elaborate new printing press.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 3, 2008 10:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They could

But apparently they don’t want to. Unless they are lying (which is possible), they are saying that they actually have a budget. And they are acting like they have one too.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 3, 2008 11:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Budget?

After all the money you and other NY taxpayers handed them? For shame! Hank is disgracing his father’s legacy.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 3, 2008 11:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hank wants to be a judicious spender of the taxpayers' money

It’s only fair.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 3, 2008 12:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"you can’t be a utility player if you can’t play shortstop."

Unless your name is Tony Graffanino

by Top Ramen on Dec 3, 2008 9:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Or Esteban German

I mean, he can stand between 2B and 3B, but so can I.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Dec 3, 2008 10:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Excellent gamble by Moore.

Also, Grudz re-enforcing why I’ve liked him so much by being a stand-up guy and actually caring about winning more than getting every last nickel.

by djk royal on Dec 3, 2008 10:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but let's see he he actually turns it down first

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 3, 2008 10:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mark Probably Can

Afford to take a pay cut to be on a winner.
Salaries Leaders
1995 Montreal Expos $109,000
1996 Montreal Expos $135,000
1997 Montreal Expos $220,000
1998 Montreal Expos $350,000
1999 Los Angeles Dodgers $1,900,000
2000 Los Angeles Dodgers $3,000,000
2001 Los Angeles Dodgers $4,000,000
2002 Los Angeles Dodgers $5,000,000
2003 Chicago Cubs $5,500,000
2004 Chicago Cubs $2,500,000
2005 St. Louis Cardinals $1,000,000
2006 Kansas City Royals $4,000,000
2007 Kansas City Royals $4,000,000
2008 Kansas City Royals $4,500,000
Career (may be incomplete) $36,214,000

I’m surprised he never made more than $5M a year.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Dec 3, 2008 10:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the Royals got great value out of him, even with all the injures

nice signing by Baird, actually

2006: 2.2 WAR
2007: 2.5 WAR ($10M value)
2008: 1.3 WAR (5.2M value)

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 3, 2008 11:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The signing of Grudz has worked out so well...

that I usually forget that he was a Baird acquisition.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 3, 2008 11:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But Moore should have traded him for a good prospect

I’m sure he was offered many different good prospects for Grudz!!!!!!!111

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 3, 2008 12:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But were those good prospects from the Braves?

If they weren’t, then Moore was totally justified in keeping Grudz.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 3, 2008 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think they were Chrisitian enough

Moore does not acquire atheists, agnostics, Muslims, Jews or any other heathens.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 3, 2008 12:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But I heard that Mike Jacobs is facebook friends with Christopher Hitchens

by DarthYoshi on Dec 3, 2008 1:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That is a LIE!!!!!!!111

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 3, 2008 1:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

2003--he made $5.5M

If there is, as Rany speculates, a gentleman’s agreement between Moore and Grudz, then thank you very much for the draft pick, Grudz. You were always a stand-up guy when you played for us, and the way you are likely leaving confirms that as well.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 3, 2008 11:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I've never understood

Why it is so much more admirable to go play for a contender than to take the most money. Why does winning matter when you are mostly going along for the ride while other guys do all the winning for you? If he would rather take a pay cut to watch a winning team play that’s fine, but it doesn’t make him any more of a stand-up guy that the one who takes more money to play for a bad team. Both are selfish decisions, and both are totally valid, but I don’t think you can make any judgements based on it.

by PopeSoria on Dec 3, 2008 12:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It has to do with the purity of the game

Not that I’m naive enough to think that baseball is pure, but to play for the joy of winning gives the impression of someone who is thankful for the gift he has and wants to use it in the naturally proper way. Going for the most money is not a bad thing in and of itself, but it is unnatural to a game/sport and, therefore, connotes that such a person is not concerned about the game itself. That’s why people have issues with A-Rod.

by BrRoyal on Dec 3, 2008 1:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I just don’t see a difference between opting for the most money or the championship that you do very little to earn. Like I said, I think both are reasonable choices, but I don’t see any reason to respect someone who makes one choice over the other.

by PopeSoria on Dec 3, 2008 1:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, I it's certainly not a requirement

Look how it backfired with the Sweeney extension. He was both loved and hated.

by BrRoyal on Dec 4, 2008 11:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

2006 should be about $7.5M value or so

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 3, 2008 11:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Question not worth its own fanshot

All Baseball Prospectus readers out there: is the BP version of Speed Score available somewhere on the free side of their site? I was happy to find the baserunning stuff (although Teahen had a bad year even on that)… but I can’t find the Speed Score (SPD) stuff

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 3, 2008 11:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Answer

I can’t even find Speed Score on the pay side of BP. I found it in the glossary (a very general description saying it is a proprietary metric) but I haven’t found it among the reported stats.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 3, 2008 12:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

EqBRR

They do have this, and its on the free side. Don’t know if its what your looking for though.

Equivalent Base Running Runs. Measures the number of runs contributed by a player’s advancement on the bases, above what would be expected based on the number and quality of the baserunning opportunities with which the player is presented, park-adjusted and based on a multi-year run expectancy table. EqBRR is calculated as the sum of various baserunning components: Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs (EqGAR), Equivalent Stolen Base Runs (EqSBR), Equivalent Air Advancement Runs (EqAAR), Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs (EqHAR) and Equivalent Other Advancement Runs (EqOAR).

by wt on Dec 3, 2008 12:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

That's a good base running metric

But Speed Score (both Bill James’s original and BP’s newer version) contains more baseball speed elements, and doesn’t isolate the base running skill.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 3, 2008 12:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

thanks, already found it

although their basestealing runs are weird…

as NYRoyal said, I’m looking for the Speed Score

I may start doing my own, anyway… it’s going to be one F-ing complicated SQL, though.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 3, 2008 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

of course it was a good idea

more draft picks = good.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Dec 3, 2008 2:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

A lot of teams don't seem to get this

Lots of questionable calls on declining arbitration to certain players.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 3, 2008 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

paranoia about the economy and ticket sales

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 3, 2008 3:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They should have invested

In Barack Obama commemorative plates like I did. Those things are guaranteed to rise in value.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 3, 2008 3:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

it was a good idea as long as he doesn't accept

then it becomes a horrendous idea

This space intentionally left blank.

by marbotty on Dec 4, 2008 12:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

oh, wait, didn't see this

Teams must pay only one-sixth of a salary if they release a player with 45 or more days remaining before opening day."

But would that happen? We didn’t release Gload, like, ever. We didn’t send Pena down until about 3/4ths of the season was over. So, I’m hopeful but skeptical.

This space intentionally left blank.

by marbotty on Dec 4, 2008 12:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But would this happen?

We don’t know. No, we didn’t release Gload or send down Pena, but neither of them was making $5M. But we do know that this team has a limited payroll budget and Moore has already added about $8M net in salary. So I think if Grudz accepts there’s a good chance that Moore lets him go. But I don’t think he’ll accept.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 4, 2008 12:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs