Brad Penny signs with RedSox
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 12:49 AM EST
56 comments
For only $5 million, with $3 million in incentives. I'm not saying that Penny would've chosen KC, but this is an affordable contract that even the Royals can seriously offer a FA.
Just throwing it out there, would you have signed Penny? If you had a choice to spend 5-8 million dollars on one of the remaining FA which one would you choose?
Please don't let the name fool you. I do enjoy talking Royals Baseball and would love to see KC win the Central this season and beyond. I feel that the division does not have a smash mouth, clear cut leader, & that it's up for graps; so why not the Royals.
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If the Royals were close to contending then I would have considered a $5+3 deal for Penny
Or maybe Pedro. As you said, neither would likely choose the Royals, but I would have considered it if the Royals were close to contending. But they aren’t. This is maybe an 81-win team right now. Considering that the Royals are very likely to not be in contention, I’d rather use the 4 and 5 spots in the rotation to develop and evaluate Davies and Bannister. As the Royals might be in contention in 2010 (or more likely 2011), I’d like for the Royals to figure out by the end of the season if Davies and/or Bannister should be in their rotation plans for the future. It would certainly help to find out that one or both is a decent #4 or better. And if not, then they need to know that neither are. This information is very valuable when Moore goes into the next offseason.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 1:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
he said he wanted to sign with a team "likely to win a world series"
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on Dec 30, 2008 1:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Rob Neyer said the Royals will never win another World Series
So Penny doesn’t want to ever sign with the Royals. :(
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 1:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
nah
They’ll be contracted in two years anyways.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on Dec 30, 2008 1:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Neyer says that will be good for MLB, the sport, the USA and the entire planet
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 1:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He should have signed with the Yankees
We ALL know that they’re gonna win it this year:)
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 1:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So IF the Royals would have won 81 games this past season
would you have signed Penny?
You seem to like Pedro…
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 1:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So IF the Royals would have won 81 games this past season
would you have signed Penny?
Maybe. I assume you mean if the Royals won 81 games in 2008 and then made the same offseason moves and could expect the same development/improvement from young players for 2009. If that were all true, then the Royals would be expected to be in contention (if they are expected to make a 6-win improvement for 2009, under your hypo this would mean a projection of 87 wins). In that scenario I would have looked for as many significant upgrades as the Royals could afford, probably including a starting pitcher. For one-year, win-now SP FA’s, my first choice probably would have been Randy Johnson. But Penny and Pedro are on the list too. All are still good, still talented and have significant injury risk and can’t be counted on to make 32 starts. But I would have liked to have signed one of them in that hypo.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 1:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
so lets just say hypo
is it really that far fetched that they can win 87 games this season…
So with Pedro say for 4+3 if he says yes would you do it?
Even if we win 81-83 with Pedro that would be fun to watch and possibly getting in…
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 1:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
is it really that far fetched that they can win 87 games this season…
I really think it is. I’m a big fan and I’d love for it to be a reasonable possibility, but I just think it isn’t. In order for the Royals to win even 85 games, they’d have to increase their run differential by something like 100 runs. That would take a massive improvement and I don’t see that from this group of players.
So with Pedro say for 4+3 if he says yes would you do it?
No.
Even if we win 81-83 with Pedro that would be fun to watch and possibly getting in…
It would definitely be fun to watch Pedro pitch for the Royals. But what’s really important to me is the Royals improving to get into contention and then into the playoffs and hopefully as soon as possible. I think playing and evaluating Davies and Bannister is more helpful to that end than watching Pedro pitch less than a complete season for the Royals in 2008. BTW, the projections for Penny and Pedro don’t look so hot. Chone has both of them with ERA’s in the high-4’s.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 2:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
maybe not a pitcher, how bout another bat
Just looking for a FA for 4-6 million + 2-3 incentives
How bout Joe Crede at 3B move Gordon to 2B?
Risky but can be rewarding.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 2:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'm all for adding a bat to a position of need
First, I don’t think moving Gordon to 2B is realistic. He’s ok defensively at 3B, but there’s no reason to believe he could even begin to handle playing 2B. Second, Crede is a Boras client who is going to require a long-term deal of a significant size. And Crede’s chronic, recurring back problems mean I don’t want to give him a long-term deal. Even if he’s willing to do a short-term, make-good contract, I’m not interested in him. Third base is occupied and Crede is unreliable.
I’d be more interested in a corner OF impact bat, but Moore has been pretty clear that the payroll budget has been exhausted. Unless we’re talking about a very small $1M move, the Royals are out of money unless someone is unloaded.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 2:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
so lets say HYPO we had the extra funds
which corner OFer would you sign from the remaining FA class
and please no Manny ;(
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 2:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bradley would be my first choice and I’d have him share time between OF and DH (Butler would then get full-time duty mostly at 1B) [I’m assuming a hypo in which I control not only player moves by how they are used by the manager]. Dunn would be my second choice.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 2:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I thought GMDM said he had an extra 20-25% increase this year
Did Farnsworth exhaust that?
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 2:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The payroll increases from Crisp, Jacobs, Farnsworth, HoRam and arbitration raises exhausted that.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 3:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
wow....20-25% on those guys?
AWESOME
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Dec 30, 2008 3:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Depends on your baseline
The “official” Royals 2008 payroll was about $58M. Of course this leaves out a good deal of guaranteed money that wasn’t on the 25-man roster on opening day, so the real payroll was about $67M. Right now the 2009 payroll is projected to be about $78M. That represents a 34% increase over the faux $58M figure or a 16% increase over the $67M figure. I think the Royals have gone about as far as Glass is willing to go this offseason as far as total payroll.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 3:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Do you see the Glass family raise the ceiling to $100 million any time soon?
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 9:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think it can go up very year
I don’t know that Glass will increase payroll by 20% every year though. A 20% increase for next year would mean about a $95M payroll. I would guess that Glass won’t be willing to go that high that soon, but I’m just speculating.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 2:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and really, unlike most people....
i was completely fine with the $58 million…unless that extra $20 million was spent locking up zack and gordo. unfortunately, it wasnt
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Dec 30, 2008 1:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was OK with a lower payroll, too,
because it looks like Moore has no idea what to do with the new money he’s been given. I’d rather stay at $58MM and NOT have to deal with the reality that we’re giving Farnsworth, etc. all that extra money. It’s depressing and embarrassing.
WTF, self?
by minda33 on Dec 30, 2008 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Make and redistribute (no Obama jokes please)
Why not invest the extra $$$
75-80 now, DMGM will re-evaluate and perhaps next season 85-95
perhaps by the trading deadline next season 100+
Not spending but shopping there is a difference.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
its not investing when its kyle farnsworth...
its as productive of a use of money as buying lapdances from an ugly stripper…you’re getting absolutely nothing now…and the money is gone
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Dec 30, 2008 8:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Please don't knock ugly strippers
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 9:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
perhaps DM will be allowed to spend the extra $$$
to keep those he wants
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"not spending but shopping"
That’s why I have a problem with the increased payroll this offseason. GMDM is merely spending because he can, not shopping wisely. I’m a little afraid that his expensive new toys won’t help the team win many more games, if any, so Glass well be less willing to open the wallet further.
I’d rather my team spend $58MM wisely(ish) than blow $75MM on crap like Farsworth/Jacobs/etc.
WTF, self?
by minda33 on Dec 30, 2008 7:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The good news is that most of this spending is not spending that will necessarily hamper the team long-term
Farnsworth is the only guy who has guaranteed money for 2010. Now, Moore may make the poor decision to keep Crisp and Jacobs, but not necessarily. So far the only clear mistake with implications beyond 2009 is Farnsworth and that is only $4.5M.
I’d rather my team spend $58MM wisely(ish) than blow $75MM on crap like Farsworth/Jacobs/etc.
With respect, I don’t think I agree with that. Why is a wisely spent $58M better than a poorly spent $75M? Would it make you feel better as a fan to have an efficient 77 wins than an inefficient 81 wins? Obviously, what is best is to wisely spend the $75M. But if we’re talking about short-term spending, if you’ve got money to spend, then spend it on whatever upgrades you can (as long as it doesn’t block the development of key players).
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 7:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"Glass will be less willing to open the wallet further"
Look at it this way, the wallet has been widen, can’t go back to $58MM
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 7:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m a little afraid that his expensive new toys won’t help the team win many more games, if any, so Glass well be less willing to open the wallet further
People said this after the Guillen signing and that was a clear bust and still Glass is spending more money. First, I think Glass understands that you need to invest in the team to build a winner. Second, as long as the team keeps improving, even if only in small chunks, he’s getting positive reinforcement for his investments. I don’t think that Glass is going to undertake a detailed analysis of every signed FA and compute how many net runs added per dollar invested, jump to the conclusion that spending money on FA’ is a bad idea and then decide not to spend much on payroll anymore.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 7:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
NY,
you said “Obviously, what is best is to wisely spend the $75M,” but my initial complaint is that this offseason’s signings are not wise ones. That’s all I meant. I just don’t like seeing money wasted.
WTF, self?
by minda33 on Dec 30, 2008 9:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that I don't want money wasted
But I like that Glass is willing to spend money. It is unfortunate that Moore made choices which were small upgrades instead of more wisely spending money, but at least it should bear a little fruit. And hopefully he makes better choices next year and beyond.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 9:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What would have have done with the extra $$$
Just HYPO
playing GM with the extra cash for this team WWNYRD
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 9:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
have have?
What would you have done differently
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 9:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A couple things
1. Sign Greinke and Gordon to long-term extensions. Now, this requires that they would be willing to do so, but I would have made a strong effort to do this.
2. Sign one genuinely good FA. I would have made an effort to sign Furcal, but in the end I don’t think I would have signed him for what it would have taken to get him to KC. I would have made a strong effort to sign Milton Bradley, telling him that he’d split time between the OF and DH. But some have reported that he really wanted to be a full-time OFer (which is pretty stupid of him, but if that’s what he wants…). So he might not have come even if the Royals gave him the biggest offer. So, without Furcal and Bradley, I would make a move for Dunn. He’s going to come relatively cheap, so I’d offer him a nice 3-year deal (like 3/33 or maybe as much as 3/36) and hope that he’ll come. If not Dunn, then perhaps Burrell, depending on what it would take to get him. But the corner OF market is pretty deep and it looks like there are bargains to be had.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 9:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Great call about the extensions. Furcal & Bradley
Furcal:
So Aviles goes to 2B?
Why Furcal OBP, steals, etc..?
So is there anyone else out there like a Furcal,
even through a trade that can make that happen?
BTW
I’ve made the case for Burrell before and I was eaten alive.
Can that still be possible?
Would we have to move a player or two first?
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 9:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So Aviles goes to 2B?
Yes.
Why Furcal OBP, steals, etc..?
A .360ish OBP with a SLG over .400 which is very good for a SS. Add in average to above average defense and he’s a 2.5-3.2 WAR (Wins Above Replacement level) player which is worth $11-$14M in 2009.
So is there anyone else out there like a Furcal,
even through a trade that can make that happen?
Trade Guillen to free up money and Orlando Hudson is possible. But the Guillen trade is very difficult and getting FA’s to sign with KC can be difficult as well.
I’ve made the case for Burrell before and I was eaten alive.
Both Dunn and Burrell have downside as well as upside. The downsides include horrible defense and impending declines. But if you limit the contract term to three years and don’t give either of them too much money, you can make a good value signing.
Can that still be possible?
Would we have to move a player or two first?
Guillen would have to go. Failing that, maybe if both Teahen and Buck were traded for players who are only owed the minimum or less (prospects) that might free up enough money (if Glass were willing to take the payroll up to $80M this year). But I don’t think Moore is interested in Dunn or Burrell, even if we had the money. He might like Hudson.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 9:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Is Guillen the reason we can't get others here
Seriously?
Why haven’t other teams signed Hudson yet?
I like the idea of Hudson at 2B.
How much is he worth/asking?
He can help KC contend this season,
that would NOT be spending.
why not make the extra moves, outside of Guillen,
(that is if you can’t trade him) to have the extra cash…
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 9:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Is Guillen the reason we can’t get others here
Seriously?
Well, the budget is tapped. So if the Royals want to bring in someone who makes serious money, they are going to have to free up serious money. Trading Guillen and most of his contract would do that.
Why haven’t other teams signed Hudson yet?
Mostly it is because I think the market is tight this year. Other than the most elite FA’s, budgets are tight and teams don’t want to spend a lot of money. So teams are waiting out players to see how far their price will drop. Also, as with pretty much any FA, there are concerns about Hudson. There are injury concerns and perhaps concerns about diminishing skills.
I like the idea of Hudson at 2B.
How much is he worth/asking?
Like just about all good FA’s, his agent started out by saying he required a big 4-year deal. I think he probably wanted something like 4/48, but I don’t think that is realistic in this market. I’d be willing to give him a 3-year deal. 3/30 would be nice. I’d probably be willing to go 3/33.
He can help KC contend this season,
He’d help the Royals win more games, but he still wouldn’t put us in contention. He’d likely be a net improvement over Callaspo of about one win.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 10:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
One win might do the job to win the Central
Hmm can we get one win per move?
Jacobs
Crisp
Farnsworth
Adding to that:
Aviles playing all season
another player/pitcher stepping up with a break out season?
that’s only 80-82 Wins
So adding a proven vet will help!
Here’s to making sharp moves
& SMART SHOPPING
we can only hope
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 10:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Smart shopping would have been good in November and earlier in December
Now we’re out of money and we just have to hope that the talented young players continue to develop and progress and that we play well enough that we we can make improvements next offseason to put us into contention in 2010.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 10:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe we can save some money
by trading Farnsworth for Penny.
I AM intangible!
by kabrink on Dec 30, 2008 8:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I would have loved Penny on the Royals
Great deal, just for a coin we could have signed Penny.
(Would have been sweet, but yeah he wouldn’t come here)
I even wrote that on my Red Sox FanPost
I believe IF he stays healthy, Penny gives Boston the edge for best starting five.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 9:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
On the other hand
Chone projects him to be a 4.81 ERA pitcher with the Red Sox. That’s basically an unimpressive #4 starter. And it projects him to make only 24 starts, or 3/4ths of a season. He’s older, in decline and now pitching in the toughest division in the tougher league.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 9:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's only a one year contract right?
Has every reason to step up his game.
Let me ask you: Does a pitching coach really make a difference at this level?
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 9:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He has reason to step up his game, but that doesn’t mean he can do it just because he wants to.
Let me ask you: Does a pitching coach really make a difference at this level?
Sometimes, but it is very hit or miss. Sometimes a coach can really help a pitcher figure something out and often not. Mechanics, deliveries, stuff and control aren’t easily fixable. Leo Mazzone is a great pitching coach and he really couldn’t help the vast majority of Orioles pitchers. I think it is more likely for younger pitchers. By the time a pitcher is 30 with nine major league seasons under his belt, I wouldn’t expect a pitching coach to help him much.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 9:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How Many Psychiatrists
Does it take to change a light bulb? Only one, but it take time and the light bulb has to want to change. A pitching coach who sees something he can change in a pitcher that will make him better combined with a pitcher who is willing to change can make a difference sometimes..
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Dec 30, 2008 9:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But the light bulb has to want to change....very funny
Penny has to see the light.
He’s capable of winning big. He did win 16 GAMES IN 06 & 08
Being in Boston where the line up can help you win more games.
Former team mate Beckett can help. (Maybe a stretch)
And finally, a great year means more money.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 9:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You don't think
he pitches the best he can all the time? You don’t think his 2008 season was his best effort, when he knew free agency was coming? I don’t think you can count on him to pitch a ton better in ‘09 just because he’s on a 1-year deal and trying to get a bigger contract for ’10.
WTF, self?
by minda33 on Dec 30, 2008 9:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The dude was just hurt I guess
He only made 17 starts
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 9:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He gets hurt a lot
He lost significant time to injury in 2004, 2005 and 2008. I think that’s why Chone projects he’ll only make 24 starts. Oft injured pitchers tend to keep dealing with injuries. Past performance is a good indicator of future performance, and that includes injuries.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Dec 30, 2008 9:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So IF he only makes 24-25 starts
Safe to say, based on past performances, he can help his team win 55-70% of those game.
Which translate into a good year for him and more importantly his team.
How many wins do you need from your 5th starter?
IF he is healthy year round, he can have a great year.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes on to win 13-16 games.
He’s done it (twice) recently.
It wasn’t like it was a far memory, ah 5-7 seasons ago.
Again, IF healthy for his recent success & the money/bargain
Nice job by Theo & the boys.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
by CubFreak on Dec 30, 2008 10:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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