Can two ex-Cubs help the Indians win the Central?
by CubFreak on Dec 31, 2008 4:08 PM EST
37 comments
It almost seems like the Cubs are helping out the Indians? First the Cubs declined to resign Kerry Wood making him available and signing as a FA with the Tribe? Earlier today, the Cubs traded fan favorite Mark DeRosa for three prospects. Both player had good years and are poised to help the Tribe win this seasonI'd like to know a few things. How many more wins can the Cleveland expect with these moves?
I'd like to here from the Review. Would you have liked to see DeRosa on this team?How many wins can the Tribe expect from these two additions? Will these moves help Cleveland become the favorites for the division? Or is it still up for grabs? Will the latest move (DeRosa) force other clubs in the division to make a counter move?
Finally: CHEERS TO ROYALS REVIEW HAPPY NEW YEAR
In these last few months you guys, and gals, have helped me as a Royals fan and more observevant of the game. I look forward to what I hope would be an exciting year of Royals Baseball.
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Opps sorry for repeating myself with "How many wins?'
and here’s the link
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
They're nice moves
But not huge impact moves. The Indians success will hinge more on if Pronk can bounce back, how healthy Martinez can stay, if Lee can still be an elite pitcher, and if the pitchers behind him and Carmona are worth a spit.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
So it does not make em clear cut favorite? Still up for grabs.
Pronk? And yes, what happened to Carmona?
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
Got it thanks
Oh yeah must have been like seriously hurt HUH?
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
Oh! I haven't heard that
they still do that?
I thought that was a thing of the past:)
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
well no not now
but he may have done them in 2003-2004-2005 when he was putting up the big time numbers. steroids cause your body to break down before it should…which clearly his body is.
i’m not saying he absolutely did do steroids, but i don’t think you can ignore the possibility.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
since were on the subject
Since I wasn’t around for this before
You might have covered it before
But do you think MLB knew about the juice and
was hush hush/wink wink
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
they had to of known to an extent
they probably did not know the whole extent of it, but I would guess they had some knowledge of their existence in the game.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
I thought they were the favorite before these moves and now I think they are even moreso
While I think they overpaid for Wood, he’ll help them. He’ll miss time to injury, but he’ll also pitch enough innings to rack up some saves. Derosa is a very good player. Below average 2B defense but very good hitting (love that high OBP).
The immoderate moderator
I think they are a favorite
But only a slight one. I really think the Central is up for grabs. I can see any of the five teams taking it right now.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Is that clear paper
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
Did you factor in Kevin Seitzer?
I think you did not.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I like the Indians moves
but I would still favor the Twins. Good control pitching and the M&M boys are just simple and steady. Plus the last year at the HomerDome the crowd will be a factor in one of the few stadiums in the league where it matters.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
Can the Twinkies still improve their win total from last year
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
Highly unlikely
They 88 games, but greatly overperformed their run differently. Second order wins – 82.5. Third order wins – 83. They’ll likely win fewer games in 2009 and second place is about their likely ceiling. Third place is a distinct possibility.
The immoderate moderator
+1
as long as they don’t make stupid moves like signing Tony Bautista to play 3B or Livan Hernandez to start like they’ve done in the past…they’re shitball will get them to 88 or so wins.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
What improvements should we expect that will increase their run differential that much?
Or are they immune to the importance of a run differential?
The immoderate moderator
pitching
they’ll have liriano and slowey all year which will help.
i think delmon will improve a little and gomez won’t be quite as horrible. plus they won’t have gomez at the top of the order for half the year.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
Will Liriano be healthy enough to pitch all year? I wouldn’t bet on it. And Gardenhire has said that he wants Delmon to be the fourth OFer. I don’t know about Gomez. He might be better, but he could easily be worse too. Its hard to say who the Gardy will put at the top of the order.
The immoderate moderator
The Twins are so consistent
I can’t stand it. They will again have a solid 5 man rotation whether Liriano is healthy or not because I’m sure they have someone in the minors who will be able to step in and perform with a nice K/BB ratio. Add that with Morneau, Mauer and Nathan and they will at least have 81 wins and likely be closer to that 90 range that will put them in the mix at the end of the year. I don’t know if they will win the division but they will be in the mix.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
plus their GM
hasn’t put himself in any finacial restraints so he might be able to make a move. I wouldn’t be shocked if they traded Revere a starter or two and something else and pulled off a Peavy trade. The Padres want to clear payroll and the Twins have the starting pitching to be able to pull something like that off. Thats speculation on my part I don’t know if Peavy would go with that don’t know why he wouldn’t other than the living arrangements. Also could see them sign Hudson.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
They are a good team
And they will contend. I just see on reason to think that they’ll repeat their 2008 win total where they significantly overperformed their run differential. The Indians look to be considerably better.
The immoderate moderator
The last seven years
they’ve won 4 division titles and only 1 time out of those 4 did they have a higher run differential than last year. Thats a small sample but the Twins have a nice system that allows them to stay competitive.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
Ok so lets break that down
The Indians won 81 games
The Royals won 75 games
Eliminate CC’s 6 wins
The Indians upgraded and but so did we
We have question marks, but so do they.
So how many more wins can they really get to win the Central?
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
The right baseline
The Indians underperformed their run differential. The true measure of how well they played (or at least a much better measure) would be their second order wins or third order wins, which were 85 and 84, respectively. The Royals were at 74 and 76. And Sabathia does not count for six wins.
The immoderate moderator
C C might count for more but he posted 6 wins
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
I'm ignorant
but how can some table or metric or etc whatever calculation
total 84-85 wins when they only truly infact actually won 81 games?
It has to make sense at the end and 81 wins total on the field was it
projections are one thing but reality is another
or am I missing something here?
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
The following is a simplification of something more complicated
Wins and losses are the product of Runs Scored and Runs Allowed. Over the long history of baseball, a consistent relationship between RS, RA and Wins has shown itself. Now, various luck factors can cause a team to win more or fewer games than their run differential. But the true quality of the team’s performance can be seen from their run differential. A team’s Pythag record describes this. Baseball Prospectus has developed some more complicated measures involving more performance elements which is captured in Second Order wins. If you add in strength of schedule, you have Third Order Wins.
So, if you want to look at a meaningful performance baseline, then I think you should look at second or third order wins.
The immoderate moderator
I've just this four times & really slow
Thanks for the info
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton
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