Khalil Greene Traded to Cardinals?

As reported by the New York Post and picked up by MLB.com. Supposedly the Padres will receive two relief prospects in return; I'd guess that Chris Perez would likely be the primary player there. If this indeed is only lacking the signature on the red line, that takes one player off the market who I had a suspicion GMDM would be interested in.

Then again, given Greene's hacktastic career line of .248/.304.427, he's really the last thing the Royals lineup needs right now from an offensive standpoint. I would have preferred picking him up instead of the equally hacktastic Mike Jacobs, but that's a separate issue entirely.

I still think GMDM is actively looking for a SS to bump Aviles to 2B, though now that we have Crisp I think the Furcal to the Royals rumors carry a little less weight given that the Royals braintrust seems set on employing Crisp as a leadoff hitter.

11 months ago DC Royal 19 comments 0 recs |

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Are you kidding?

His OBA fits right in to what we’re trying to do here in KC!

I was thinking about Khalil Greene – does his career look like what Aviles may do over the next few years?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 4, 2008 9:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Personally,

I think Aviles will keep his OBP higher than 304, if for no other reason than he is likely to have a higher avg than 248 to start from.

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Dec 4, 2008 11:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm not so sure

Aviles walked only 18 times in 419 major league AB’s last year (and 11 in 214 AB’s in Omaha). To Aviles’ credit, he also does not strike out much, but taking BB’s isn’t really his thing—he was never a terribly patient hitter in the minors either, except for his year in high A ball. So he’ll have to keep his average at, I’m guessing, .275 or higher to realistically have a higher career OBP than Khalil Greene. I think Aviles can pull that off, but I don’t think he’ll have that much of a higher OBP than Greene—I think a .280/.320/.420 line from Aviles is very likely.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 4, 2008 11:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

.280/.320/.420 would actually be pretty exciting

especially if he can maintain his defense at an average or above average level at SS. But his age and track record is so diverse, we don’t know. This year happened, so it’s part of that. I could see him being anywhere from a .290/.330/..450 SS with above-average defense (which would be extremely valuble) to a .265/.285/.380 guy with average defense at second — a utility guy.

But even if he’s a .275/.300/.410 guy (as some predict), if he’s even average at SS, at the minimum he’s still a steal.

Greene’s offense does resemble Jacobs… of course, the difference is that he’s been playing in the most pitcher-favorable park in the majors (check out his home/road splits), and he (at least was) a good defensive shortstop, not the worst first baseman (ergo, the worst defensive player) in the major leagues.

He would be valuble to the Royals, depending on what they would have to give up. As a MI partner with Avilanche, I think he’s definitely better than Grudz, Callaspo, or German. But he’ll get a decent arb settlement this year, and that has to be figured in.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 4, 2008 12:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Personally, I think he'll do a little better than .280/.320/.420

I think those first two numbers are fair and reasonable. Actually, I think the third number is fair and reasonable too, but I think it is lower than what I expect to happen. These are Aviles’s monthly SLG splits from 2008

June .549
July .524
August .417
September .458

As with most players who are new to a league, I think after a while pitchers figured out the best ways to pitch to Aviles and he went from dominating to struggling (at least in a relative sense). But he made some adjustments too. Even taking his significant luck into account, I see his 2009 being more like .285/.320/.435. I think that is realistic and fairly conservative (and more pessimistic than both BJ and Marcel, for whatever that’s worth). A slightly less conservative, but also fairly realistic projection would be .290/.330/.445. I think the likely OPS range for Aviles is .740-.780…with roughly average defense.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 4, 2008 1:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

with offense on a decline

.280/.320/.420 SS in the AL with average defense will almost certainly be a 2.5-3 WAR player. That kind of performance costs about $12M-15M on the open market.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 4, 2008 1:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But will offense continue to decline next year?

It may, but I don’t know that we can expect the trend to continue. It is really an open question whether this is a long-term trend or a short-term blip.

That question aside, I certain agree with your overall point that those numbers (pretty much anything in that range) makes him a very valuable player at that position.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 4, 2008 1:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I dunno...

I’ve just read it in a couple different places. I know that Tango expects it.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 4, 2008 1:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, I agree

After a year and some with TPJ sucking hard at SS, .280/.320/.420 from Aviles at SS would be like a godsend. And because of him, we shouldnt trade for Greene. I was just saying that Aviles will likely be very Greene-like in his offensive output, but a notch higher in BA and maybe half a notch higher in OBP but no more. But still, I’ll gladly take it.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 4, 2008 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs