"If that's one of my worst mistakes -- to sign somebody who has 20 home runs and 97 RBIs -- I'll...

"If that's one of my worst mistakes -- to sign somebody who has 20 home runs and 97 RBIs -- I'll take it."
-Royals General Manager Dayton Moore

MLB.com: Relief will be KC's likely Meetings focus

about 1 month ago RoyalsRetro Comment 48 comments 0 recs |

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seems fair

It wasn’t a good move, but you don’t hit on every one, and as mistakes go, it’s not so awful. It’s only 3 years, and Guillen should be a productive player throughout that time even if he doesn’t come close to being worth the money. Others have done far worse.

by kcdc1 on Dec 4, 2008 12:02 PM EST 0 recs

But if the money we tied up in Guillen...

…prevents us from having the available cash to re-sign Greinke, then that becomes a pretty awful mistake on Moore’s part. Sure, other signings have been worse (Zito, Hampton, Ja. Giambi, Pavano, etc), but as payroll goes, the Royals have less of a margin for serious error than, say, the Yankees do.

And it isn’t just offense, either—aside from his arm, Guillen has been a below-average defender in the outfield.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 4, 2008 12:17 PM EST up 0 recs

it won't.

The ZG thing is ENTIRELY on ZG right now. I am 100% sure the Royals have made an offer. He turned it down.

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Dec 4, 2008 12:25 PM EST up 0 recs

Hopefully that's just spin

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 4, 2008 12:18 PM EST 1 recs

+1

It has to be. I can’t imagine he really means it. If he does… well, the rest of that sentence writes itself.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 4, 2008 12:55 PM EST up 0 recs

come on now

I’m sure he really means it. He recognizes it was a mistake, but he knows he’ll make mistakes, and if that’s the worst one he makes as Royals GM, then he’ll have had a damn good career.

by kcdc1 on Dec 4, 2008 12:56 PM EST up 0 recs

if that’s the worst one he makes as Royals GM, then he’ll have had a damn good career.

No, this was a pretty big mistake. If he makes more mistakes that are nearly as bad as this one, he’s going to turn into a pretty bad GM. The problem is that 20 HR and 97 RBI aren’t very meaningful, because if you have those two counting stats and a genuinely bad OBP, a SLG which is only pretty good, bad baserunning and horrible defense, you’re a bad player. So, if Moore recognized the truth, and was being honest, rather than just spinning the situation (and hopefully he was just spinning to make Guillen look as good as possible), he would have said:

“If that’s one of my worst mistakes — to sign somebody who is a poor baseball player to a $36 million contract — I sure hope I don’t make any more mistakes which are even half as bad as that, or I won’t have this job long.”

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 4, 2008 1:08 PM EST up 2 recs

that is an absolute lie

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Dec 4, 2008 1:16 PM EST up 0 recs

I guess we disagree on how bad the Guillen signing was

Guillen had a terrible year last year, some of which might be attributable to injury, some of which might have been bad luck. I think it’s reasonable to expect him to be worth about 1-2 wins over replacement level next year, which would be worth about $5-10 million. It’s not $12 million, but it’s not Zito either.

by kcdc1 on Dec 4, 2008 1:58 PM EST up 0 recs

I think he’ll be better in 2009 than he was in 2008, but by 2 WAR? I think 1 WAR is a stretch. I wonder if any projection system is going to have him hitting well enough for 1 WAR, considering how bad his defense definitely will be.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 4, 2008 2:01 PM EST up 0 recs

How bad

was his defense before last year tho?

by kcdc1 on Dec 4, 2008 2:05 PM EST up 0 recs

From what I've seen

the the only years he’s been average or better on defense have been 2003 and 2005. 2006 he was close to average, but still below. 2004, 2007, and 2008 were all disasters.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 4, 2008 2:09 PM EST up 0 recs

Yeah, in recent years, it has gone downhill, as has his speed and quickness. When range drops at his age, it is likely real and part of a long-term decline.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 4, 2008 2:11 PM EST up 0 recs

what's Guillen's +/-

averaged over the last 3 years?

by kcdc1 on Dec 4, 2008 5:37 PM EST up 0 recs

I don't have that data on hand right now

But in 2007 and 2008, he was well into the negative (I think about -30 total over those 2 years) and somewhat on the positive side in an injury-shortened 2006 season. So I think the total would be significantly negative. I bet his average over three years is about -9. But someone can look up the numbers.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 4, 2008 5:42 PM EST up 0 recs

it's not on the free side

He doesn’t make the trailers in 2008 because he split time between right and left. I think JoPo said he was about -20 total at one point before the end of the season.

I don’t know about 2006 — he’s actually OK there, but again, he only played half the season.

Keep in mind that plus-minus numbers don’t account for playing time.

He was actually a plus-minus “leader” for RF from 2004-2006, I think, although keep in mind he didn’t play much RF in 2004. He was an LF in Anaheim. I’m guessing plus-minus had him having a very good 2005, which would correspond with both PMR and UZR.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 4, 2008 7:50 PM EST up 0 recs

Guillen

Guillen was significantly below replacement level in 2006 and 2008. The most generous estimate I’ve made has him barely average in 2007 — and that was off. Here is the WAR what I have for him the last three years (open to dispute, of course):

2006: -0.58
2007: 1.12
2008: -0.59

He’s 33 next year (I think). What should we expect?

I haven’t seen a projection yet that has him hitting like a league average player next year (although that’s possible). Combined with his defense and position, however you adjust them… Yeah, I think 1.5 would be a miracle.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 4, 2008 2:08 PM EST up 0 recs

Guillen's defense should rebound some in 2009.

If he can play an average rf, then his war might get 2 better. It is a pretty big if though.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Dec 4, 2008 3:46 PM EST up 0 recs

It might rebound a little if he’s healthy and stays healthy. On the other hand, he’ll be a year older and a year slower. Players who are 33 years old who have seen their defense deteriorate in each of the prior two years rarely have significant improvements. His range stunk in 2007 and 2008. He was a way, way below average defensive RFer. There’s absolutely no reason to believe he’ll suddenly manage to be an average defensive RFer. Sure it’s possible. It is also possible that he hits .350/.400/.550 next year. Hell as unfathomably unlikely as it is that he’ll hit like that next year, I think that is more likely than him being an average defensive RFer next year. Lots of luck can give rise to an aberrant hitting year. But all the luck in the world won’t bring back Guillen’s speed and range.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 4, 2008 3:50 PM EST up 0 recs

using RBI is as bad as it gets

and huzza! 20 HRs!

wow

by royalsreview on Dec 4, 2008 1:15 PM EST 0 recs

curious part of quote

“with the expected improvement of Alex Gordon and Billy Butler and Mark Teahen”
One could interpret that to mean that Teahen will play a major role this year, not a 4th OF

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Dec 4, 2008 1:21 PM EST 0 recs

yeah -- Teahen isn't a world beater

and maybe I’m just finding a weird place to be optimistic, but (as I’ve said elsewhere) all the comments about Teahen really make me think that Moore really would prefer to dump Guillen and try to live with Teahen for another year in RF — which, financial considerations aside, a better option for team performance in general (start praying now for Gil’s arm).

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 4, 2008 1:30 PM EST up 0 recs

That would be interesting...but I don't see how

Even if he desperately wants to trade Guillen and make Teahen the everyday RFer, he must know that this is an iffy possibility at best. He can’t get a lot of time at 1B, unless Butler is traded, which contradicts the above quote. He could potentially get something like 350 AB as a 4-corner super-utility man. I can’t see his role getting more major than that unless a major move is made.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 4, 2008 1:30 PM EST up 0 recs

Well..

He will be the first replacement option for four guys, DDJ, Guillen, Crisp, and Gordan, and looks to be a defensive replacement for Guillen quite a few games, and one of our off the bench bats. I think he would be almost an everyday player.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Dec 4, 2008 3:50 PM EST up 0 recs

He will be the first replacement option for four guys, DDJ, Guillen, Crisp, and Gordan, and looks to be a defensive replacement for Guillen quite a few games, and one of our off the bench bats. I think he would be almost an everyday player.

Maybe 450 AB’s. Maybe…unless Guillen someone goes on a very long DL stint.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 4, 2008 3:53 PM EST up 0 recs

Guillen is tradeable,

IF the Royals agree to pay, say half of the remaining $24 million commitment.

Alternatively, he may be tradeable if he is included in a deal with another player as a “poison pill”, and I wouldn’t even mind if the Royals STILL agreed to pay part of the remaining commitment too.

It’s a good time to remind Moore about the concept of sunk costs. That $24 million is ALREADY SPENT, so if you truly believe Teahen is the better option in the outfield, than trading Guillen for WHATEVER you can get is not that bad of an idea. Now, I would also argue that perhaps Moore should gamble by waiting on Guillen’s next hot streak, so at least his market value is merely low instead of at an all-time low…

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Dec 4, 2008 1:35 PM EST 0 recs

yeah, the possible hot-streak is the thing

and that may be what he means (now I’m really speculating) by Teahen’s importance — he allows the team flexibility in trades — whether it’s trading Teahen, or trading Guillen (or even [sigh] DDJ) and using Teahen to fill in.

Anyway, the only thing DMGM should be looking for in return for Guillen at this point is someone to take ont he salary.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 4, 2008 1:39 PM EST up 1 recs

Royals after relief help

Ken Rosenthal thinks we may pursue Professor Farnsworth

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 4, 2008 1:40 PM EST 0 recs

I wondered when someone was going to bring that up

great, the Royals needed a Jose Guillen for the bullpen

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 4, 2008 1:41 PM EST up 0 recs

There is a fanshot on the Royals and Farnsworth

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 4, 2008 1:45 PM EST up 0 recs

Farnsworth is an...

…idiot. With Guillen, are we going for a collection of irresponsible jerks? Yikes. I have a feeling we don’t need him. I’d rather have two more bats.

And 20 hr and 97 rbi is just average in this day and age. A lot of players (i.e. Matt Stairs) could put up those numbers with less hassle than Guillen.

- TL

[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.

by timlacy on Dec 4, 2008 1:51 PM EST up 0 recs

20 HR and 97 RBI average?

What league are you watching? SuperMLB?

We didn’t have anyone that hit more than 20 HR or 97 RBI, so our whole team is below average. 76 guys hit more than 20 last year. That’s about 1/3 of the league’s starters. I know RBI doesn’t matter a ton, but 97 does rank Guillen 29th. To say those are average numbers is just a slight misnomer.

by AxDxMx on Dec 4, 2008 3:59 PM EST up 0 recs

And using our team to...

…construct any kind of average is also a “slight misnomer.” Also, avg. Guillen against outfielders, and right fielders in particular who spent nearly a whole season in their position. – TL

[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.

by timlacy on Dec 4, 2008 4:12 PM EST up 0 recs

Ummm... you didn't say just against outfielders

You said those numbers are average, and I beg to differ that they are not.

I didn’t use the Royals to construct any kind of average. I merely said none of our players measures up if those are “average” numbers for MLB.

Also, Guillen ranks 11th in the OF for RBI (5th among RF), and 35th for homers in the OF (around 12th for RF). While I will agree that 20 HR are average to below average for outfield, 97 RBI are not. And when no one on our team approaches those numbers, isn’t the one guy that does just a little valuable to us? I mean it’s not like we could put Teahen/Olivo/Buck/etc. in there and expect the same production, could we? I wouldn’t expect it.

by AxDxMx on Dec 4, 2008 4:55 PM EST up 0 recs

Jose F. Lopez

Was 17/89 because the Mariner braintrust decided he was a cleanup hitter.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Dec 4, 2008 4:59 PM EST up 1 recs

Agree

I’d get rid of Teahen before Guillen. Teahen will never be better than he is now, which is pretty poor. If we can get any value out of him, please do.

by kabrink on Dec 4, 2008 5:32 PM EST up 0 recs

When you take the value of their offense and defense into account, Teahen is much better than Guillen

This includes both what they’ve done in recent seasons and what they are projected to do over the next two seasons. And that’s even before you take their salaries into consideration.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 4, 2008 5:44 PM EST up 0 recs

+1

I don’t think some people are ever going to be able to accept that, but take a look: Teahen has been a better player than JoGui for the past three seasons, even with his dreadful 2008. Even if I switched to Dewan’s for Teahen’s defense for 2008, he would still be better than Guillen.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 4, 2008 7:53 PM EST up 0 recs

I don’t know how much better, but yes, likely Teahen, when taking defense into account is a better all around player.

I really don’t like Guillen a ton, I just feel like none of our current players approach his power, and he did something for us that no one else could in hitting 20 homers. That hasn’t happened since Sweeney hit 21 in 2005.

by AxDxMx on Dec 4, 2008 8:11 PM EST up 0 recs

mmm, I think that

Teahen, Gordan, Butler, Jacobs, Shealy, Olivo and Kila are all “approaching his power”.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Dec 4, 2008 10:51 PM EST up 0 recs

And, Dare I Say,

Far less expen$ive.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Dec 4, 2008 11:21 PM EST up 0 recs

True

I still can’t believe with no other offers on the table that GMDM gave him what he did. Wow that was bad. $24/3 would still be bad, but it would be a lot more acceptable considering no one else wanted him.

If Guillen comes to camp in shape, he will play better defense, hit more consistently early in the year, and he won’t look like such a bum. I’d say 25 homers isn’t out of the question. When he was hot, he was unstoppable, I’d take 60% of that level spread over the whole year and he would be our player of the year unless Buter or Gordon emerge finally, or they give Kila some playing time.

by AxDxMx on Dec 5, 2008 11:47 AM EST up 0 recs

My money

is on Gordon to be the most valuable position player for the Royals this year. He was third in my esteemed rankings this year, behind horseshoe-up—the-rear Aviles (who will still be at least average next year) and DDJ’s great year all-around. If Gordon can get in at least 145-150 games and his bat progresses just a bit, there we go.

Guillen’s realistic upside next year is .280/.325/.460. Even if he plays almost no DH and manages to be -8 on defense, he still won’t be as good as those three guys. He wasn’t even as good as Mark Freaking Teahen (in his worst year since 2005) this year.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 5, 2008 11:58 AM EST up 0 recs