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I like it..
late in the year last year he had his ERA to 3.30+ but then started sucking again… but i think McClure can work with him.. as he has with other crappy pitchers, i.e. Horacio Ramirez, Robinson Tejeda
Werd.
He's been absolute shit the last two years, and good before that
If this is true, I hope he comes quite cheap, for one year (or one plus a club option), and I hope the Royals can see something in him that I don’t. We can’t assume that McClure can help him. We know McClure helped Meche to improve. We don’t know that at all about H. Ramirez or R. Tejeda. McClure is a good pitching coach and he will help some pitchers, but he’s not a cure all.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
Until he starts turning water into wine or something really cool and fun like that
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 4, 2008 1:31 PM EST up reply actions
I Can Turn
Wine into urine; does that count?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Dec 4, 2008 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
We all have our gifts
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 4, 2008 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
I dunno
Marcels (yeah, I know, but it’s fast and easy — [insert Sean Avery-esque inappropriate comment here]) sees Farnsworth as below replacement level according to be FIP and ERA next year.
I don’t see the point in paying a guy like this, even if he can attain a Mahay-esque adequacy. It’s just ass backwards — you trade Ramon Ramirez for Crisp and then sign Farnsworth? They could have kept Ramirez and traded next to nothing for (wait for it) Ryan Langerhans, and paid two guys the minimum for at least the same overall production (Langerhans a worse than Crisp, RamRam better than Farns).
Nothing’s done yet, but I don’t see the point. Better for DMGM to pick up a guy in a trade or Rule 5.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
But do we trust GMDM's ability in putting together a pen?
What if we flip Farns for a Kyle Davies like we did with Dotel?
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
Not sure what my opinion of this would be, but
I was wondering if anyone can recall who on the Royals Farnsworth took a swing at during that Detroit brawl a few years back?
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
If we were to sign him, I would hate it
He is the Jose Guillen of relief pitchers. Below average, likely to be somewhat expensive, and a total jerk.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Progressive Boink
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
He's the Jose Guillen of relief pitchers?
What were H. Ramirez, R. Tejeda and O. Dotel? My point is not that if Moore acquires a pitcher (and of course Farnsy hasn’t been acquired yet) then he must be good. But I think in addition to the tools and stats, when Moore acquires a pitcher — particularly a reliever — we must consider that his people have shown a good, but certainly not perfect, eye for these players in the past. If they like him, we should at least consider that maybe he’s due for a rebound.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
well, I said that
partially because someone is going to pay him too much. The thing about Ho-Ram and Tejeda, at least, is that they cost practically nothing. If they would have failed, then BFD. But paying an overrated guy like Farnsworth in FA is a real risk. How much is he going to get? Even if McClure can get him to pitch like Mahay did this last year (and that seems like a stretch for Farnsworth), I don’t think that’s worth $4M/yr to the Royals.
As I said above, I just think it’s an inefficient way to operate, particularly on the Royals budget.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 4, 2008 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
partially because someone is going to pay him too much.
Maybe so. But what do you think is too much for him?
As I said above, I just think it’s an inefficient way to operate, particularly on the Royals budget.
I think you’re making a big assumption here. Paying him too much is an inefficient way to operate. And you’re assuming that the Royals would pay him too much. That is, unless you think giving him any guaranteed money is too much. Do you think a $500K contract would be too much? $1M? What about $1.5M with performance incentives that could get him up to $3M?
If you are saying that the only efficient way for a team like the Royals to put together a bullpen is through nearly free additions like waiver claims and minor league contracts, then I and Dayton Moore disagree with you. Moore has built good bullpens through those means, as well as wise but not inexpensive FA’s (Riske and Mahay) as well.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 4, 2008 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not sure Mahay was worth the money last year
but that’s disputable, and I’m willing to be persuaded. Riske was a better deal.
Of course I can agree with you (and Dayton!) that whether or not Farnsworth (or any player) is worth is and/or efficient depends on the deal. I should moderate my objections until I see what Farns gets. I wouldn’t give him $2M guaranteed, though, I can say that with some certainty. Maybe not even $1M guaranteed. I love performance incentives for any player. How much should Farns get if he wins a Silver Slugger?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 4, 2008 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not sure Mahay was worth the money last year
That’s a valid point. He may not have been. And it may not have been a great FA signing overall. But I think it was a decent one, and not bonehead move because he just should have picked someone up off of the scrap heap for league minimum.
I agree with you that he shouldn’t get $2M guaranteed. I doubt Moore would give him that, but we’ll see. I don’t think $1M guaranteed with incentives would be a bad deal, if Moore and his people really do like what they see and don’t want to lose him to someone else.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 4, 2008 2:27 PM EST up reply actions
just one point
I’m not saying that the Mahay signig itself was necessarily a bad one at the time, just that he turned out to have a not-so-great year. That happens. That’s different than a deal being bad from the get-go.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 4, 2008 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
???
Mahay was great until his foot injury. I was in favor of KC trading him midseason but that wasn’t because he wasn’t worth the contract it was more to build more longterm success. IMO a Buck/Mahay trade to the Phils could’ve gotten KC Donald + and allowed them more freedom this offseason not needing any middle infield help.
As long as the foot is heeled and Mahay returns to slightly below his lights out numbers prior to the Allstar break the signing will have turned out great for the team.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
The advanced pitching metrics (like FIP, xFIP and tRA) show that Mahay was only ok in 2008.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 4, 2008 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
Do you think those numbers might be scewed
with his 8 IP and 14 ER in August/Sept. I’m sure those numbers didn’t help how did he look prior to the injury?
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
Mahay Was A
Totally different pitcher after the injury, which he never did get over.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Dec 4, 2008 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t think any 8 ip is going to skew his numbers greatly. In short, I don’t think his advanced pitching metrics looked great before the injury.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 4, 2008 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
Really?
You don’t think 1/8 of his total innings pitched with around a 15.75 ERA a .400+ BAA .600+ SLGA (bad estimate probably greater) would effect his numbers that greatly?
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
Mahay's first half
was fueld in large part by an unsustainably low home run rate on fly balls (HR/FB). Through the end of July, Mahay was around 2.7% where his career average is 9.5% and league average is around 10% (like BABIP for pitchers regressing to around .300, HR/FB over time tends to regress to around 10 %). The rest of his basic stats — K/9, BB/9, LD %, GB %, FB % — were all in line with his career numbers. Sometimes regression happens right before our eyes.
I really think that 1/8 of his performance isn’t going to change his advanced metrics from great to mediocre. I think it could and probably did take them from pretty good to mediocre.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 4, 2008 5:46 PM EST up reply actions
it could if it's a small number to start with...
(I was just going to write “if it’s small to begin with” but I refrained so that we wouldn’t get Michael Scott in here.)
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
NY what are you smoking tonight?
king of small sample sizes?
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
Since when is a full season a small sample size?
The smaller sample size is isolating themes when Mahay pitched well, and then saying that’s his ‘true talent?" Um, maybe, but that’s certainly a smaller sample than taking the whole season and noticing that it wasn’t very good. In fact, his tRA was below replacement level over the whole season.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 4, 2008 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
i meant the 8 innings after the injury where he was not good
and a completely different pitcher. Any person who watched the games didn’t have to see stats to see he was a completely different pitcher.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
and yet, the season stats
ended up remarkably similar to the ones he put up in Atlanta in 2007
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 4, 2008 11:04 PM EST up reply actions
And yet he hasn't lost a game in two years.
Take the pre injury vs post injury…
What’s it say?
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
that wins and losses for relievers have even less value as a measure of performance for relievers than they do for starters?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 4, 2008 11:12 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yes, yes, a thousand times yes.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 5, 2008 12:04 AM EST up reply actions
His pre-injury stats were better than his post-injury stats
…but his pre-injury stats weren’t exactly mind blowing.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 5, 2008 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
I'm sorry
I think these advanced metrics can certainly tell the story about someone’s ability, especially in large samples, but Mahay seemed outstanding last year. He could get both lefties and righties out. He didn’t strike out a lot, but he still got outs. I don’t remember that his performance was questioned until after the injury.
by BrRoyal on Dec 4, 2008 4:55 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think there is sometimes (perhaps often) a difference between seeming outstanding and actually performing at an outstanding level.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 4, 2008 5:21 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Absolutely
But you could also say that his low HR rate was phenomenal even if it wasn’t because of anything he tried to do. However, it’s still performance. Sure, you can expect him to regress, but for a stretch the actual production on the field was outstanding. That’s why I said the metrics measure his ability rather than performance. Everyone was impressed by his performance because it was better than his ability, but that doesn’t nullify what happened.
+1
thats why I said
As long as the foot is heeled and Mahay returns to slightly below his lights out numbers prior to the Allstar break the signing will have turned out great for the team.
I don’t think anyone expects to have Mahay perform as well as he did in the 1st half of last season but closer to his career numbers.
In a tougher market Affeldt got the same deal as what we gave Mahay. If Mahay can pitch to his career norms this season KC will have gotten a good return for their money.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
to be fair
i’m pretty sure Mahay has outperformed those metrics pretty much his whole pitching career. i say that without looking, so i may be wrong.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
Not his whole career, but certainly in each of the last 3 years, FWIW
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 4, 2008 6:41 PM EST up reply actions
I Must Admit
Just subjectively speaking, Mahay did seem to be a bit of a high wire act, even when he was succeeding. He seldom came and slammed the door without some drama.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Dec 4, 2008 8:27 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly
The fact that he got himself into some trouble (hits and walks) and was able to get out of it reflects some amount not insignificant amount of luck.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 4, 2008 8:58 PM EST up reply actions
I don't remember it that way
But I’ll admit to rose/royal-colored glasses. Plus I don’t get to watch the games on TV or go to them, so I mostly see the end results.
He gave up almost a hit per inning, but what really hurt him was that he gave up more than 4 walks per 9 innings. That’s a lot, particularly when you’re only striking out 6.8 batters per 9 innings.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 4, 2008 9:41 PM EST up reply actions
O-xO (Outs minus expected outs) and xRR (expected versus recorded runs)
from stat corner measure luck. Positive numbers indicate good luck:
Mahay 2008:
O-xO 2
xRR 8
His 91 tRA (about replacement level or below) reflects that. He was similar during his second-half run with Atlanta last year, although he was decent in Texas before that.
Hey, he’s even older than me, what do you expect?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 4, 2008 9:44 PM EST up reply actions
One thing we can be sure
If its being reported that means it will not happen. Pretty much all of the rumors surrounding the Royals have not happened, and all of the moves Dayton has actually made have been done without any warning whatsoever. He is a ninja.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 4, 2008 2:18 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Next week will be fun
Well, fun in a way. There will be lots of rumors surrounding the Royals (probably not five-star rumors involving big players like Greinke or Meche, but maybe Greinke) involving many different players. Most of them will be bogus, and most of the legit rumors will be about discussions which never lead to an actual deal. But I think some things will happen, like a trade or two, perhaps involving Buck and/or Teahen. But there will be more rumors and talk than action (like every winter meetings). And there will be a lot for us to talk about.
“How could he even think about doing that?!!!”
“Do that deal now, Dayton!!!!”
“Why the hell didn’t he do that?!!!”
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 4, 2008 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
Love the NINJA reference!
Awesome!
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
Has Any Rumor
That we heard about a GMDM trade ever come true? His deals do seem to come out of the blue.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Dec 4, 2008 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
His trades come out of the blue
His FA signings are often rumored days before they happen.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 4, 2008 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
True, But FA's
Are a bit more of a known commodity. Trades can involve virtually anyone.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Dec 4, 2008 8:30 PM EST up reply actions
Jacobs was in the air for a day or two before
we were all in denial right until the moment it happened
At least in that way, I was like a 2008 Republican
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 4, 2008 8:02 PM EST up reply actions
Jorge Julio just got signed for $950K + $950K in incentives
I think that’s a fair comp as far as overall perhaps over the last few years. I wouldn’t expect Farnsworth to make a lot more than that.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
I bet he does
Not that I think he deserves it, just that I bet other GMs overvalue him. “Our scouts say he throws so hard! If only we could get our pitching coach to work with him, we could straighten him out!”
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
That's possible
Although I do think GM’s aren’t just in love with velocity. Even the stupid ones can see that other things are more important than that one tool. And then there’s the fact that his fastball is 1.5 mph slower than it was two years ago. And I think that even the stupid ones know that too. But you may be right and he may well get more guaranteed money.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 4, 2008 9:40 PM EST up reply actions
plus, his sperm seem to swim quite quickly
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Dec 4, 2008 9:45 PM EST up reply actions
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