but you would naturally expect a run saved to be more valuable than a run scored beyond the leveraging issue he discusses. By his definition, a “defensive team” will be involved in more low-scoring games, where a single run is inherently more valuable whether it be a run scored or a run saved. By contrast, an “offensive team” will be involved in more high-scoring games where the value of each run is relatively diminished. Another way of looking at it is hidden in Pythag itself. Let’s say an average team would score 10 runs and allows 10 runs over a set of games. Not only will the Pythag be better for a team that saves one extra run than for the team that allows one extra run, each run a team allows fewer than 10 becomes progressively more valuable while each run that a team scores beyond 10 becomes progressively less valuable. That is to say that the Pythag for a team that scores 100 runs and allows 10 will be virtually identical to that of a team that scores 101 runs and allows 10. By contrast, There is a much larger pythag difference between a team that scores 10 runs and allows 1 and a team that scores 10 runs and allows 0.

Great read