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A Quick Chat with Baseball America's J.J. Cooper

Last week, deep in the Thanksgiving sinkhole, Baseball America announced their rankings of the Top Ten Royals prospects. (You can read the initial site reaction here and a nice breakdown of various rankings by "doublestix" here.) BA's top three were Moose-Hosmer-Cortes, following the general consensus, while Montgomery rated #4, something of a mild surprise. Internet sensation Kila Ka'aihue slipped into the list at #9, a tad lower than, well, many internet-types, had him.

BA's J.J. Cooper was kind enough to answer a few questions from me. And while, in retorspect, I probably should have delved into some hardcore specific scouting/mechanics type queries, I was feeling more general at the time. No questions about Chris Lubanski either.

 

 

RR: You mention the Royals' decade-along failure to find contributing players late in the draft. Do you see any single reason for this or attribute it to any specific organizational problem or blindspot? Or was it just simple bad drafting?

JJC: If you go back to the early 2000's I think it was a combination of both. The Royals had some bad drafts, and then failed to develop the players they drafted, which is often a forgotten piece to the puzzle. In the early '00s, deciding to draft Colt Griffin and Roscoe Crosby was obviously a bad decision.

Colt0726_medium

There's always the next once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, Colt. Oh wait.


RR: The Royals added a seventh minor league affiliate a few years ago. Was it worth it to do so?

JJC: It sure can't hurt. By having seven affiliates, the Royals get to take a look at another 25-30 players that other teams have to cut. Most of those players will prove over the next year or two that they don't deserve to stick around, but if one of them succeeds because he got a third or fourth chance, than it makes it worth the investment. It does cost some money, but in the grand scheme of things it's a pretty inexpensive way to focus on development.

 

RR: Were the Royals right to acquire Mike Jacobs from Florida or should some combination of Ryan Shealy and Kila Ka'aihue performed adequately in 2008?

JJC: Personally, I'm not a big fan of the trade, but then the Royals don't check with me before making any moves. But then, I don't really have to worry about how many tickets Kansas City sells this year either. To me the Royals have to make moves with the long-term goal of being a playoff contender in 2011-2012 in mind. Making a move that helps win two or three games in 2009 doesn't do a lot for that goal, especially if it's a player who will likely be long gone by then. So in my mind, giving Shealy/Ka'aihue a chance to prove they're either something or not part of the long-term answer is more important than Jacobs hitting 25-30 homers with a .300 OBP. Maybe Ka'aihue's improvement in 2008 is a sign that he's got it all together now that he's hitting on healthy knees. If that's the case, with his plate discipline, he'll likely be more productive than Jacobs over the next 2-3 years. Of course, it's also possible that 2008 was a fluke and he's the hitter who hadn't slugged over .500 in his first six pro seasons. But by giving him 200 at-bats, Kansas City could figure that out. But I'm realistic enough to know that the Royals can't sell another long rebuilding project to fans who have heard that same refrain for over a decade now, so moves are made to get to .500 in 2009. It's hard to focus on 2011-2012 when you have to prove to the fans and the ownership that things are getting better quickly.

 

RR: How should Royals fans feel about the Luke Hochevar pick from a few years ago?

JJC: I'm assuming most Royals fans are a little disappointed that Hochevar hasn't emerged as a star by now. That's definitely true, but then, the next two college pitchers taken after him in 2006 have been worse (Greg Reynolds and Brad Lincoln), and Andrew Miller, the consensus No. 1 talent, hasn't set the world on fire either. The only sure-bet star taken in the top five was Evan Longoria, and as much as teams talk about taking the best available talent, the Royals weren' going to draft a college 3B a year after drafting Alex Gordon. Hochevar should be a solid middle of the rotation starter if he continues to improve, which is a decent return, even for a No. 1 pick.

Luke_20hochevar_medium

Impressions.


 

RR: A late surge by the Royals dropped their 2009 Draft Slot from around fifth or sixth to twelfth. Is this going to come back to haunt the team?

JJC: If they keep drafting like they did last year, no. Drafting high is a big help--just ask the Rays--but the Royals willingness to spend money allowed them to nab Mike Montgomery, Tim Melville and several other top talents last year after the first round. It wouldn't surprise me if they did that again this year.

 

RR: A few years ago, the Royals were possibly the least-talented/most-hopeless organization in baseball. Who holds that title now?

JJC: Hmmm. I'd have to pick the Nationals. Their farm system is pretty barren, the big league team is poor and they have an almost non-existent fan base. That's a tough trifecta to recover from.

 

RR: Overall, how would you grade Dayton Moore's rebuild of the farm system thus far?

JJC: They seem to be in better shape now than they were three or four years ago. This team really needs Alex Gordon and Billy Butler to emerge as the lineup cornerstones they were expected to be, and the farm system is still weak at the upper levels, but if the young talent that's should hit low and high Class A this year continues to improve, the Royals could have a Top 10 farm system next season. Now not all of those guys will pan out, but if just four or five of the mutlitude of young arms pull it all together, the Royals will be in a lot better shape in 2011 and 2012.

At the big league level, Moore has shown that he can build bullpens, which is something that had been a problem for years in K.C. That's not everything, but it is something, and it's a strength that has allowed him to deal bullpen arms for help elsewhere.

Thanks to J.J. for his insights.

Thoughts? You agree that the Nats are the worst organization in the game right now? Should the Royals have bitten the bullet positionally and taken Longoria? Too early to tell?

 

 

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Well obviously

Everyone would rather have Longoria now, but it made perfect sense at the time not to draft another college 3B.

by raefzilla on Dec 4, 2008 11:53 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Even in the case of drafting a year after picking Gordon...

I think the mantra should still have been, “best player available.” Even this year, with only one true impact hitter in our farm system (Moustakas—Kila was still breaking out at this point), I would have probably been a little disappointed if the Royals had taken a pitcher with the #3 pick, but if the pitcher was the best player available, I would have understood.

That being said, I think the upper echelon of last year’s draft talent was pretty skewed towards the hitters, if you look at the top picks—Beckham, Alvarez, Hosmer, Posey, et al. But the above is just a hypothetical.

Good interview, Will.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 5, 2008 12:03 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

it’s not like the royals are exactly teeming with corner of talent — Longoria (or, more likelyl, Gordon) could be moved there.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 5, 2008 12:16 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

exactly

If Longoria panned out with us, the worst case scenario was that Gordon would get punted to first base…wait, shit, we’ve already done that for some games.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 5, 2008 1:10 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+Buddy Bell's lifetime win %

I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

by LeoBloom on Dec 5, 2008 1:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

actually

The one consequence of a corner IF of Longoria/Gordon is that it would have cemented Butler’s status as a full-time DH. Which is already sort of happening, but that would have probably sealed it.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 5, 2008 1:11 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think Gordon's got the speed to play OF, but I guess it doesn't matter now

those two would be pretty great inthe middle of the lineup

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 5, 2008 1:42 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The Rays considered Longoria's glove and range good enough

to contemplate playing him at SS before trading for Barlett.

by Gopherballs on Dec 5, 2008 1:57 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah, i read that

my point was more the (now irrelevant point) that if the Royals had drafted Longoria, they could have moved Gordon to LF/RF for him.

Although they sure could use another first baseman at the moment. As long as it doesn’t interfere with acquiring another second baseman.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 5, 2008 2:01 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Just bolstering the point that drafting Longoria

would not have necessarily cemented Butler as full-time DH.

by Gopherballs on Dec 5, 2008 2:15 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

also already happening

I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

by LeoBloom on Dec 5, 2008 1:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

hindsight

At the time, Longoria was the best of a very weak group of college hitters that year. He wasn’t projected to hit more than say, 25 home runs in a season.

There was absolutely NO consensus #1 talent. Hochevar, Brad Lincoln, Andrew Miller, Tim Lincecum, and even Drew Stubbs were in that conversation, but there was no David Price that stood out like a sore thumb.

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Dec 5, 2008 12:05 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

it certainly was not a consensus

despite what BA says. i don’t have any links, but i know goldstein said lincecum was #1 (good call now). brad lincoln was mentioned by some.

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Dec 5, 2008 2:03 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

BP guy just got lucky

that has to be the only time someone from there got any sort of prediction right, I think

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 5, 2008 2:05 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I've said it once, I'll say it again...

Yeah, Timmy Lincecum looks like a surefire #1 pick now. But he also looks like a surefire candidate for TJ or torn labrum surgery now too. The big difference is that he fit the latter description in 2006, but not the former.

I don’t think I’ve ever been too enthusiastic about Hochevar, but I understand why the Royals passed on Lincecum when they did.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 5, 2008 2:06 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Goldstein begs to differ
Royals scouting director Deric Ladnier has insisted to the press that there is no obvious candidate for No. 1 and that the pool of potential candidates for the top selection is pretty wide. Based on my conversations with a number of scouts, scouting directors and front office executives, Ladnier is alone in this assertion. I have yet to talk to anyone at any level who does not see Miller as the clear choice for the top overall talent available. A 6’7" lefthander with a fastball that gets into the upper-90s, a plus slider and pretty good control is a rare player, and despite the wealth of college pitching in this draft, Miller clearly has far more ace potential than any other possible selection

Kevin Goldstein, “A Royal Blunder,” BP, May 11, 2006

by Gopherballs on Dec 5, 2008 2:11 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

would you trade hoch for AM straight up now?

I dunno… I guess I wouldn’t

it would be an interesting discussion

by royalsreview on Dec 5, 2008 2:15 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Probably

Miller is a bigger risk, but was very unlucky last year. He misses bats and induces groundballs. — the Brandon Webb skillset. A moderate improvement in control turns him into an above average starter, and a significant improvement could turn him into a front line starter. He is young enough that he still has time for that happen.

by Gopherballs on Dec 5, 2008 2:28 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think Hochevar’s higher GB% and much lower LD% are good signs that he is and will continue to be better than Miller.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 5, 2008 2:46 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Miller is certainly the higher risk, but the higher reward.

And it is a big enough risk that preferring Hochevar is a reasonable difference of opinion. What tips it for me is that Miller could still be something special, and league average even if he improves his control only a little bit.

Miller (95 TRA+) and Hochevar (96 TRA+) were about equal last year. Miller’s GB% was above 60% in the minors, so the modest difference in their MLB rates (48% v. 52%) in essentially one MLB season is not as important as the big difference in K/9 rate (7.5 v. 4.9). Line drive rates fluctuate more than groundball rates, so their rates over their first 150 IP in MLB does not necessarily reflect how they will do going forward.

I like Hochevear and agree he is a safer bet to improve into a league average starter. Miller, who was rushed through the minors, has had some mechanical problems since turning pro and is clearly not as polished. The thing that sets Miller’s potential apart from Hochevar is Miller’s ability to miss bats. Lefties who miss bats and induce grounders are an ideal skillset, which gives him a pretty good buffer that even if he never masters his control, he can still be a league average pitcher. Miller, a year younger than Hochevar, does not turn 24 until next May, so he has plenty of time to iron out his problems.

by Gopherballs on Dec 5, 2008 11:49 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Miller is certainly the higher risk, but the higher reward.
And it is a big enough risk that preferring Hochevar is a reasonable difference of opinion.

I agree. Both choices are reasonable.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 5, 2008 12:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Definitely not

Hochevar is a groundball machine and I only see that improving. A bit more control and he’s an very good sinkerballer/groundballer. And I think his K/9 will tick upward and his BB/9 will go down more significantly.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 5, 2008 2:44 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i remember some other BP guy specifically saying Goldstien saying Tim was the best choice

i don’t have a link.

lol at that description of his repertoire too.

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Dec 5, 2008 3:38 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Goldstein's article cited above

posits Lincecum as perhaps the best choice of the non-Miller draft prospects.

by Gopherballs on Dec 5, 2008 11:50 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The Astros might have the worst organization in baseball

In the very least, they are on the short list.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 5, 2008 12:08 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

nah

At least they have a decent MLB team. Worst farm system? Yes, but the MLB team is still the most important part. Nats win this argument, somewhat closely followed by the Mariners.

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Dec 5, 2008 12:13 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Their MLB team is headed that way

The Astros organization in general has been heading to hell in a handbasket ever since they sacked Purpura as GM.

by DarthYoshi on Dec 5, 2008 1:03 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

They just signed Affeldt, Howry AND Renteria

Those are three signs of a ballclub that knows what they are doing!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 5, 2008 10:22 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The Astros are heading for a collapse

Bad drafts, bad farm system, too many over the hill high priced vets. The reason they are able to stay afloat is that they have one of the best pitchers in the NL in Oswalt and one of the best hitters in the MLB in Berkman. But those guys are aging. Barring a shift in organizational philosophy or true rebuilding effort from the bottom up they will be facing some tough times.

Waiting for April.

by DC Royal on Dec 5, 2008 11:23 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think you're joking

but most of the stuff I’ve read [WARNING: ANNOYING APPEAL TO ANONYMOUS AUTHORITY] has actually seen the Affleldt and Howry signings as good ones.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 5, 2008 11:49 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

but E-rent is awful

but at least dayton can’t sign him now

I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

by LeoBloom on Dec 5, 2008 1:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Cool interview

Nice new feature there. As far as Hochevar, I’m in the glass half full camp. I’m enamored with his the potential to hone the sinking fastball. Could be a true #3 for years if he masters that pitch. His FIP last year was I believe a full run under his ERA. So, in retrospect, I’m okay with Luke. 9 other MLB teams passed on Lincecum, and I never personally liked Scherzer.

Longoria was awesome out college for sure. But Alex, whoa…. We had such high hopes for him he was nearly literally the next George Brett. College Player of the year, Minor League player of the year. (I still love Alex’s long term success BTW) Even George Brett said something to the effect that it was an honor to be mentioned in the same sentence as him. So in hindsight, you don’t draft Longoria.

I love the Jays’ Travis Snider, but he would have never been #1 overall. Same with Kershaw.

Alex Gordon in '08

by RoyalJHWKR on Dec 5, 2008 12:14 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I still like Gordon

but that friendly attempt at a PR move by Brett doesn’t help with the pressure at all

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 5, 2008 12:17 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah it was dumb

I remember reading it and thinking “seriously George?”

Alex Gordon in '08

by RoyalJHWKR on Dec 5, 2008 12:19 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

nice interview

good to see that the search to find an expert who likes the Jacobs trade continues unabated. I think we’ll find one the same week O.J. finds the real killers.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 5, 2008 12:18 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

(I like Rich lederer, but he's not an expert)

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 5, 2008 12:18 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Lederer is a better "baseball guy"

than analyst, and I do like him as well. I’m firmly believe (as I’m sure many of us) that if Jacobs is used in a strict platoon primary DH/ 1B then he should be very productive

and that xBABIP that HBT just released had his at something around 295-300 of the top of my head.

Alex Gordon in '08

by RoyalJHWKR on Dec 5, 2008 12:22 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

saw that

we’ll see what happens. I still think .320 OBP is about Jacobs max. Cooper’s points above re: opportunity cost, etc. stand.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 5, 2008 12:48 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Lincecum seems like the better pick

But that’s with the benefit of hindsight. I recall Lincecum being a bit favorite with the online crowd, but there were plenty of red flags. His violent delivery and his huge college workload were the two largest.

I seem to recall Andrew Miller perhaps not being the overwhelming consensus #1 pick, but it was pretty close. But there were concerns of his outrageous salary demands, and many felt he wasn’t THAT good that he warranted that kind of headache.

After Miller, the talk was about Hochevar, Lincecum, and Brad Lincoln. I personally wanted Lincoln at the time, thinking he was the safest pick, and he has turned out to be the worst by far, of any of the players mentioned. So I certainly can’t fault the Royals for taking Hochevar – it was a very defensible pick.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 5, 2008 10:21 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

it seemed like the safe pick at the time

at least in my mind

i think given the circumstances the franchise was in, there was no way they could take lincecum

by royalsreview on Dec 5, 2008 6:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Lincecum illustrated a debate

stats vs scouting.

Obviously, scouting favored Miller (and others), but go back and look at Lincecum’s stats – they screamed (at least mildly) that he was the top prospect.

FWIW, I think a blend of the two approaches is still best, and at the time of the Royals pick, I was sorta surprised they didn’t take Miller.

Interesting question:

How many more stellar years would Lincecum have to produce to win the debate against Hochevar, EVEN IF he does get hurt? I.E., a few more years like last year may cinch the argument for him, even if he does suffer a major injury, and even if Hochever develops into a #3 for 10-15 years.

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Dec 5, 2008 5:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

one more good year i'd say

since the clock is ticking for Hoch’s FA departure from the royal anyway

lincecum getting hurt in 2010 is going to be irrelevant when hoch is pitching for the dodgers

by royalsreview on Dec 5, 2008 6:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hochevar has five more years of control as a Royal

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 6, 2008 10:08 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He'll Be Part

Of the ’10 mid-season Renteria deal.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Dec 6, 2008 1:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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