wOBA Positional Averages 2008
At the request of a party who shall remain anonymous, I have constructed a spreadsheet to give pseudo-Fangraphs-style positional wOBA averages by position for 2008 MLB, AL, and NL. I still think the best general model for such averages is something like this (see my related FanShot here), but it is interesting to see how closely the empirical data from last year matches up. I've even included a silly wOBA-fied version of baseball-reference's OPS+.
Since I'm guessing Fangraphs' version of wOBA will become the most frequently cited, I've used a formula that I think they are using -- that is, one that excludes reached base on error (this makes sense for them, since I assume they are using the baseball databank data, which doesn't include that information). They also use custom linear weights for each year, which I don't use here. However, Tom Tango (the creator of wOBA) notes that the weights since 1956 don't stray all that far from the generic formula.
I think Fangraphs is great, and is quickly becoming the best source for sabermetric data on the internet -- free or pay. Personally, I prefer that ROE be included in wOBA, since I do think it at least partially reflects player skill. Stat Corner does so (and they also have park-adjusted wOBA*). I would also prefer that both sites includes stolen bases and caught stealings in the formula (I don't think they do -- but correct me if I'm wrong). But they have their reasons. I have a sheet ready with SB/CSs and also one with ROEs if people are interested.
Update: Thanks to the coment below, I now realize that Fangraphs does include SB/CS in their wOBA figures, and have corrected the spreadsheet.
11 months ago
devil_fingers
23 comments
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Comments
Thanks
Great stuff. These numbers are more intuitive.
C .310
SS .312
2B .324
CF .325
DH .330
3B .332
LF .337
RF .342
1B .345
With the exception of DH, that is exactly the order I (and conventional wisdom) would expect. I think the axiom that players up the middle hit worse than guys on the corner is actually true. I wonder what is up with the DH number. Is it skewed by multiple teams having no established DH and going with a round robin of mediocre players? Perhaps.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Dec 5, 2008 1:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Lots of interesting stuff
I think adding in ROE and SB/CS makes a pretty bit difference, especially for the guys up the middle. Just actually looking at the splits shows a pretty common-sense correlation between relative speed (SS/2B/CF) and ROEs/SBs.
I think the DH does reflect strange usage of that position. Teams like the Angels use a round-robin for their crappy outfielders like Rivera and Garrett Anderson, sometimes even Gary Matthews, I think. Dave Dellucci saw plenty of time there for the Indians. Then there’s Butler and Guillen… I also think it reflects the difficulty in hitting off of the bench, especially for guys who are used to playing the field.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Dec 5, 2008 1:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I also think it reflects the difficulty in hitting off of the bench, especially for guys who are used to playing the field.
I’ve seen some interesting research on the whole subject of whether players hit better as a DH or hit better when the play the field or hit better/worse coming off the bench, etc. Basically all of the research I’ve seen has been inconclusive with a strong suggestion that there are some players who hit better as a PP, some hit better as a DH, some hit better coming off the bench, etc. And of course there are many where there is no consistent difference. But I don’t think there has been enough research on this to settle the issue.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Dec 5, 2008 1:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I haven't read it
but “The Book” (Tango, MGL, Dolphin) apparently finds that DHing is historically more difficult for hitters
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Dec 5, 2008 1:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
DH and 1B should be counted together
The DHs really should be lumped together with the 1B because if a player has the defensive chops to play 1B, he has the defensive chops to play DH. This is one of the criticisms of VORP, which if you take the same player and run him once as a 1B and once as a DH, he ends up with a higher VORP as a DH even though the replacement level for 1B and DH in reality is the same.
The DH data jumps around because less than half of MLB teams use the DH, so you end up with years like 2008. While most years have multiple DHs who finish with a wOBA above .400, only Bradley (.421) did that in 2008. More importantly, there were 7 DHs (min 300 PA) that finished with a wOBA below .330, including one who achieved historical awfulness:
Anderson .326
Sheffield .323
Stairs .319
Butler .318
Guillen .318
Dellucci .311
Vidro .268
In 2007, only one finished below .330: Piazza at .317
by Gopherballs on Dec 5, 2008 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah... I'll have to get back ot that
this took a surprisingly long time to put together
I actually think the “empirical” findings confirm putting 2B/CF/3B together, as 3Bs are slightly closer to 2B/CFs than 1Bs, and even moreso when ROE and SBs are included. The positional adjustments also take into account other factors than make 3B relatively difficult to play and fill.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Dec 5, 2008 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Can you run some numbers for my roto team too?
I did not mean to suggest that you should run them again, only that when looking at 1B and DH, the DH numbers should be tethered to the 1B numbers because they share the same talent pool.
by Gopherballs on Dec 5, 2008 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I know, it's cool
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Dec 5, 2008 2:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, the position adjustments actually take this aspect into account.
2.25 is replacement level and .5 runs is the adjustment Tango found for the difficult of DHing in the first place.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on Dec 6, 2008 12:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If you have two guys that can't field
you put one guy at 1B and the other at DH. More often than not, you put the better hitter at 1B because you consider him to be more valuable to the future and you hope he improves.
by kcdc1 on Dec 5, 2008 1:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fangraphs includes SB and CS
Adopted Giant: Aaron King
Wearing the crown by 2011. Or at least the LOOGY hat
by baetown415 on Dec 5, 2008 3:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
d'oh... I thought I was missing something
I’ll deal with it later
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Dec 5, 2008 3:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
thanks
fixed
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Dec 5, 2008 3:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the whole idea of this thing I think is to describe the population of position players in a given year. running the yearly data is important though. what i would also like to see is how GMs are actively valuing players. you can infer their own concepts of position adjustments i’d guess. or at least a league wide one.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on Dec 6, 2008 12:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
also: Def Proj from Chone are an excellent accompanying resource!
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on Dec 6, 2008 12:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
already got 'em
although I didn’t know he’d put them on Google. Just finished doing a Marcels/Woba/CHONE FA valuation sheet… once I can decide on whether to go with 4.84 (Tango) or 5.24 (Cameron)/WAR, maybe I’ll post it.
Here is where I posted about Chone’s projections earlier this year. You can read the thrilling discussion that ensued.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Dec 6, 2008 12:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
he released an xls...i c/p'd.
maybe i shouldn’t have done that? or at least not give the link out. i can always bahlete.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on Dec 6, 2008 12:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
meh, check with him first... where's the xls for 2009?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Dec 6, 2008 12:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
on his blog
well he hosts it off site here
so, it’s freely available…but at his site.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on Dec 6, 2008 1:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, that's where I got the stuff
but I can still only find the 2009 stuff in html… I suppose you just imported it into Excel?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Dec 6, 2008 11:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"My kingdom for a unified fielding metric"
that’s what Chone’s D Proj is. BIS, STATS and FSR. ’tis glorious.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on Dec 6, 2008 12:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Once Fangraphs starts posting UZR
(and hopefully it will be a BIS/STATS combo), possibly the best range metric out there will be free — Dewan’s might start having to make his freely available if BJ-Online subs crash, although that’s a dream.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Dec 6, 2008 12:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs













