MLB front offices are using super-terrific, advanced metrics you've never even heard of

This might only be interesting to a few of us, but sometimes that's what fanshots are for.

Will Carroll at BP put up a blog post recently in which he responded to Gammons assertion that front offices all of the sudden care about defense and are looking at new studies on the subject. Basically he said of course they are, and they have even better statistical information than we do.

"There have been occasions where I’ve been privy to some of that work that’s going on in front offices and it simply blows away things you’d call the state of the art in sabermetrics. Not a little ahead — a lot."

I wish the public had access to this kind of stuff. I wish the Royals front office was interested in really getting into this.

11 months ago NYRoyal 49 comments 0 recs |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

we decided to go 100% in the other direction

and the results speak for themselves, at least with regard to building a lineup and fielding a defense

by royalsreview on Dec 8, 2008 9:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

RBIs, the new market inefficiency

by Top Ramen on Dec 8, 2008 10:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Never underestimate the significance of GEDPT

…or Game-Ending Double Plays Turned.

It’s ahead of GWRBI and right behind 7th inning batting average in stat importance.

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Dec 9, 2008 1:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The responses to Carroll's post are even better

ex:

Your post just said, "There are some smart people in baseball, TRUST me. I can’t say anymore, but it would BLOW YOUR MIND."

Of course, stuff is going on at Fangraphs and elsewhere that would BLOW WILL’S MIND, and maybe already has, except BP almost never mentions the work of others.

Funny how yesterday’s radicals are today’s defenders of the establishment.

That’s a bit harsh. Will Caroll’s a good writer, and is especially interesting on injuries. But it would be unfair to compare him to sabermetricians. For the “ultra-left” perspective on teams and sabermetrics (and take it or leave it), see this response to Caroll’s post.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 8, 2008 9:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

He may be correct

He may not be saying “publicly available sabermetrics sucks.” I took it to mean, “some organizations are spending a lot of money to create the state of the art in sabermetric analysis, which is even better than that which is publicly available.”

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 8, 2008 10:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd have to see the graph

was it a line graph? Did it use colors? Was it a pie chart?

mmmm…. sabermetric pie…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 8, 2008 10:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dayton has it for breakfast - every day

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Dec 9, 2008 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Is it just me

Or does Will pull out the “I know something, and I can’t say what it is, but trust me, its true” line a lot?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 8, 2008 10:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He does.

But not as often as he mentions that he’s friends with Jenn Sterger. Someone should keep track of both of those things.

by minda33 on Dec 10, 2008 3:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

does he relaly play the Jenn Sterger card in all seriousness?

that’s really, really funny. and not in a way that makes him look good. Unless he’s trying to be funny in an ironic way.

Hilarious.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Apparently.

From a facebook conversation with Rany many moons ago:
Rany:

You may have heard that he’s friends with Jenn Sterger – if only because he refers to it in every column. (In fairness, they really are friends – he invited me out to Harry Caray’s steakhouse with them last summer. She was very pleasant.)

Me:

I noticed Jenn Sterger is in, like, all of Will’s photos. “Good morning,” Will says over coffee and a donut. “How are you? I’m good because I’m friends with Jenn Sterger.” Is that how it goes?

by minda33 on Dec 10, 2008 4:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, and for the record

I love Will. He’s been very kind to me and has given me a world of opportunity with BP. I think it’s just a rule that everyone has to give him crap about Sterger.

by minda33 on Dec 10, 2008 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"I wish the Royals front office was interested in really getting into this."

Link to where you know for sure they don’t?

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Dec 8, 2008 9:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I totally have a link

but I can’t tell you about it. It’s super secret, with codes stored in the same location as the pictures of Brett doing coke and the original Gloaden Glove.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 8, 2008 10:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

so

you could tell me, but you’d have to kill me?

figures!

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Dec 8, 2008 10:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

it's like that time I beat you in the race around the world...

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 8, 2008 10:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They have one employee who does stats and probably still use one or more consultants. That sounds like they are dipping their toes in sabermetrics, but that’s about it. Could they have a massive statistical operation that is going completely under the radar? I suppose, but it seems highly unlikely.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 8, 2008 10:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Someone at the Star should ask about that

That is, if they’re not too busy asking about what color shoes the Royals will wear next season, and catching up on what Ken Harvey is up to

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 8, 2008 10:47 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Wal-Mart is a front for a massive underground sabermetric analysis community

those old people greeting you at the door? Yeah… they’re failed sabermetricians aged by the radiation fro the monitors and the radon in their mothers’ basements.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 8, 2008 11:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Those guys were fired

And replaced by much cheaper Chinese sabermetricians

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 9, 2008 9:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You do realize the Royals' in-house Stat Guy is named "Jin Wong," right?

I’m not even making that up.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 9, 2008 10:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He's got the "front office guy trying to be cool" glasses and everything

although he doesn’t have the DMGM strap, as far as I can tell.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 9, 2008 10:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And, Paul Phillips makes a ninja appearance!

by minda33 on Dec 10, 2008 5:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

you can tell he's going places

the golf shirt says GM

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 5:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

of course they are

I’m with you stix. The Royals aren’t dropping 90+ million a year on player salaries, signing, development, and scouting without trying to squeeze every edge they can out of that money. I know there are brilliant people out there who would work their asses off analyzing data for $30,000 a year if they were making evaluations for a MLB club. Moore is not from the old guard that distrusts computers. He’s said in interviews that their data is all digitized and in his day-to-day operations, he’s primarily workng off a computer. You can tell when someone is smart. Moore is. I guarantee you that he knows about UZR, he could tell you its limitations, and he could tell you a superior system that he prefers that we may or may not have heard about. As for the notion the MLB clubs are way beyond anything that is publicly available, a lot of the stats research companies do successfully sell their products to MLB teams, so something like PECOTA or Dewan’s +/- must have value to MLB clubs or they wouldn’t exist.

by kcdc1 on Dec 9, 2008 12:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not ruling it out

but I’ve also read guys who have worked for MLB teams who seem to think that the opposite is the case for most teams.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 9, 2008 12:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Clearly the Royals front office does engage in some statistical analysis

But I really think they just dabble in it.

Moore is not from the old guard that distrusts computers. He’s said in interviews that their data is all digitized and in his day-to-day operations, he’s primarily workng off a computer

I’m sure he’s well versed in late 20th century technology. Of course their scouting reports, etc. are on a computer. I’m not saying he uses an abacus.

You can tell when someone is smart. Moore is.

Agreed completely. But you can be smart a smart person and still think it is best to rely on traditional modes of player valuation and evaluation. You can be smart and value scouting very highly and advanced statistical analysis very little.

I guarantee you that he knows about UZR, he could tell you its limitations, and he could tell you a superior system that he prefers that we may or may not have heard about.

I disagree. I think he knows what UZR is, but doesn’t know the methodological details or how it differs from Plus/Minus or PMR. I doubt he is intimately familiar with any advanced baseball metrics. I think he is generally aware of most of them…and doesn’t use many of them.

I think the Royals front office uses scouting and more traditional statistical analysis (batting average, HR, RBI, OBP, SLG), and then augments that in a minor way with more advanced statistical analysis. I really think Moore is just dipping his toes in the water of sabermetrics, and that’s about it.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 9, 2008 12:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

RE: "I doubt he is intimately familiar with any advanced baseball metrics."

There’s really no way for us to find out one way or another on that. Dutton, Mellinger, you reading this?

by kcdc1 on Dec 9, 2008 11:02 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I'm on this issue!

I asked Mellinger if he could shed some insight here. He said

They are very aware, I’d say. Dayton is a scout at heart, so I think it’s
fair to say he’ll lean that way if it’s one or the other, but one of his top
advisors is very sabermetric, gives him the info, and they also contract
someone to provide them with more advanced stats, I believe.

I’m not sure how to quantify it, but I’d say they lean more heavily on
sabermetrics than many front offices, and less heavily than many others.

Jeez, how’s that for general? Is Dayton rubbing off on me?

So yeah, we really don’t know more now than before I asked, but I tried. At least he didn’t say, “They’re cavemen and they only know stats that were on cards in 1956.”

by minda33 on Dec 10, 2008 5:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, piss.

The quote ends after “Is Dayton rubbing off on me?”

The blockquote close tag is where it’s supposed to be, but it didn’t show up that way. :’(

by minda33 on Dec 10, 2008 5:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the guy they contract

is Mats Olkin… who worked for the Mariners (who just established a whole stats department) at the same time.

I’d say this is basically the minimum of what every team does. In short (really), though, the realissue is how the GM understands the stats and whether or not he or she (hopefully) acts on them.

Thanks for the quotes, Minda.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 5:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the info

Unfortunately, Sam’s answer doesn’t get us much further than we already were. We know they have a full-time stats guy, and contract some stats stuff out. And I’m sure Moore has heard of UZR, Plus/Minus, PMR, etc. I just don’t know how much he knows about them, or how much he uses them. My guess is not much on both.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 5:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He psuedo-clarified in another e-mail:

…I know they’re aware, I’ve had conversations with several
members of their front office where sabermetrics have come up. They always
seem aware, and they may or may not be more aware than they’re letting on if
they’re trying to dumb it down for the idiot reporter asking them
questions:)

by minda33 on Dec 10, 2008 5:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"Aware"

I was “aware” of OPS before I knew what it was. I was aware of VORP before I knew what it was or had any idea what went into it. I was aware of Dewan’s Plus/Minus defensive metric before I knew whether it had any value or how it measured fielding. My point here is that I’m sure they are aware of a great many things. I’m sure some of them understand some sabermetric things in depth. I think the number of front office personnel who have an in depth knowledge of sabermetrics is small and doesn’t include Moore, Picollo or any of the senior guys in the front office.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 5:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

NYRoyal, I copy and pasted your comment to Mellinger

and he said,

Eh, not really. They’re not cavemen, walking through life just worried
about batting average and RBIs, but they’re not Bill James, either.
Depending on this person’s definition of “in depth,” I’d say the collective
saber understanding of JJ and Dayton is more than this person thinks, but
certainly not (fill in the name of your favorite saberperson here).

by minda33 on Dec 10, 2008 7:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I love Bill James

but sadly, even if someone was Bill James, they’d be pretty far behind most of the sabermetric world at this point

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 8:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bill James might not be on the forefront of sabermetric innovation anymore

But I bet he understands the ins and outs of advanced defensive metrics and tell you which one he thinks is the best and why. While I would love for the Royals front office to be churning out the best in new sabermetric thought and coming up with insights that no other organization has, I’d be content with them mastering and utilizing what is freely available.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 8:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

probably

Don’t get me wrong, I’d love DMGM to be as up on things as James. But again, the real issue is not all how much someone knows, but if and how the notions are being put to use.

A guy named Tom Tippett (I believe) is the Red Sox fielding guy who has his own system that is apparently on par with Dewan’s and UZR.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 10:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ok

Thanks for asking him. The problem is that there is a lot of room between Bill James and your average caveman. Where does DM and his senior staff fit in that spectrum? It’s hard to say. I think they are strongly towards the traditionalist end of the spectrum, with some knowledge of sabermetrics, but not a lot.

I mean, he’s shown that he doesn’t truly understand the value of OBP, and it’s not like OBP is some state of the art advanced metric that was just developed this year. That’s pretty basic stuff.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 8:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You're right

We don’t know everything that goes on in the office (but how I would LOVE to be in on some of these meetings), but Moore’s actions seem to indicate a less-than-spectacular grip on sabermetric ideas.

And yet, Mellinger claims Moore is not a cave man. So why doesn’t Moore act in a way that shows that to be true? Actions speak louder than words, and all that.

by minda33 on Dec 10, 2008 8:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess someone isn’t a caveman if he is conversant with the stats and concepts behind OBP, OPS, and advanced metrics. And I think he is conversant with them. But I think his understanding and knowledge of them is pretty limited, and he’s shown that.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 10, 2008 8:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I like Mellinger, too

and he’s sort of “stat friendly,” However, while I’m no great judge of these things, I don’t think he’s especially on the cutting edge. I think he probably subscribes to BP, but it doesn’t show up too much in his writing. And while BP was the shit 5 years ago, there is free stuff all over the internet that is much better than pretty much everything there except PECOTA… so one can only imagine what is going on with teams that have a staff of analysts.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 10:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well no, he's not on the cutting edge;

I didn’t ask him because I think he has significant statistical insight. I asked him because he has access to the front office people that we don’t have, and he answers his e-mail. :)

by minda33 on Dec 10, 2008 11:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

sorry, that didn't come off right

no biggie, though. Thanks for the info.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Dec 10, 2008 11:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mellinger

It’s hard to say how much he knows and understands about sabermetrics. But I certainly don’t blame him for not discussing it much in his KC Star writing. If I had a column or blog there, I wouldn’t talk much about it either. You have to write to your audience. And trying to explain UZR or wOBA to a mass audience would be difficult. And it would be a pain in the ass to have to explain an advanced metric every time you reference it. And most of your readers would stop reading as soon as you started trying to explain the advanced metric. In short, sabermetrics is not reader-friendly for a mass market audience.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Dec 11, 2008 12:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Posnanski once addressed the difficulty

of catering to a big wide newspaper audience:

When I write for the newspaper, I’m writing for a living and for people who:
1. Are huge, enormous, psychotic sports fans.
2. Are reasonably big sports fans.
3. Have a passing interest in sports.
4. Do not care about sports.
5. Hate sports.
There are constant tensions between those five groups, and it’s difficult/impossible to make them all reasonably content with one column.

Newspaper writers can certainly know a LOT more than they can put in their columns. You’re right; there’s just too much to explain.

by minda33 on Dec 11, 2008 12:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs