PECOTA on the Royals: Not So Good

by royalsreview on Feb 16, 2008 2:01 PM EST Comment 32 comments

The PECOTA-based team sims are up at BP ($).

PECOTA pegs the Royals as a 71-91 team, fifth place in the AL Central.

Given our multiple discussions of the team's pitching, its noteworthy that its a downturn in pitching that PECOTA sees as the main problem.

RS- 741
RA- 848

PECOTA pegs all Royal starters to have ERAs over 4.00, with Davies and JDLR being pretty awful (5.73 ERA and 5.63, respectively).

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i'll let NY do the talking...

by doublestix on Feb 16, 2008 2:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

does our defense project to be that bad?

the system isn't also that high on Greinke, who projects to a 4.27 ERA

its also down on Mahay, 4.61 ERA

looks like they went negative on just about all our guys

by FlintHillsRoyal on Feb 16, 2008 2:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Question

Which pitchers on our team DIDN'T outperform their PECOTA in 2007?

Oh, none of them?

Sorry, maybe Scotty and Odie didn't.

by doublestix on Feb 16, 2008 2:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

JDLR didn't

and maybe a random reliever, like Ducky

I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

by LeoBloom on Feb 16, 2008 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I've re-hashed this so many times

I think the downside of this pitching staff is allowing approximately the same runs as last year. I think the most likely outcome is allowing fewer runs than last year. This projection essentially has the Royals entire pitching staff falling off of a cliff and going from pretty good to just plain awful. In the end, this pitching prediction won't be even close.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Feb 16, 2008 2:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Where do I start?

Let's leave aside the performance projections for a moment. The PECOTA W/L prediction is based in significant part on how these various players will be used. And in some cases, they are likely way off.

Kyle Davies, 23 GS, 115 IP
Jorge De La Rosa, 19 GS, 100 IP

This is way too much for both of the above. Does anyone really think they are going to get that many starts? And, if they are as bad as PECOTA predicts them to be, then why would they be given so many starts? There are many other options, so would Moore and Hillman leave them out there for more futility? That seems wildly unlikely.

Zack Greinke 25 GS, 140 IP
Brian Bannister 26 GS, 145 IP

The only way these guys get less than 30+ starts each is if they are injured. The starts and innings are both way too low.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Feb 16, 2008 3:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I dunno man

we've seen an awful lot of JDLR the last few years

I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

by LeoBloom on Feb 16, 2008 3:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And we've learned a lot about him

If he continues to stink and doesn't show much of the promise we saw in April 2007, then there's no way they are going to stick with him. There are just too many options for the #4 and #5 rotation spots for them to stick with anyone too long when he's pitching like crap.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Feb 16, 2008 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

but are any of them good?

we really need either Hochevar to be ready, or someone from the Tomko/Lawrence/Nomo region to be effective

I guess you can throw Davies in there as well

Hillman, you're on notice.

by FireBell on Feb 16, 2008 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think that list is quite right

Hochevar will probably get some starts. Tomko will be able to eat innings with an ERA in the low-4's to high 5's. We don't need anything from Lawrence or Nomo. Other pitchers in the pool to get some starts include Davies, Bale and Nunez. And later the season, Soria may make some spot starts as well.

So no, most of those guys are not "good" pitchers (Hochever will be good, but not in his rookie season). But no team should expect their #4 and #5 starters to be "good" pitchers. If we can get two guys in those roles who can give us an ERA in the general vicinity of a 5.00 ERA, we'll be doing better than league average for those spots.

Will we be able to find a couple of guys who can do better than a 5.50 ERA? Yes, I an confident that we can and will.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Feb 16, 2008 5:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This is just standard regression.

PECOTA is just projecting injuries / inconsistency for Greinke and Bannister, because neither has a history of pitching 200 IPS regularly.

If you look at some other teams, it is doing the same to guys like Lincecum, Phil Hughes, Joba, Billingsley, etc.

visiting A's and Mets fan

by rfloh on Feb 17, 2008 6:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

While I take projections like these objectively...

Scouting does indeed go a long way in baseball. Moore has done an incredible job with Picollo, and I think McClure has helped and will continue to help pitchers maximize their potential.

As a cash-strapped male in his low-20's, I don't have subscription for these, but from what I've read (here and In Dayton We Trust), some of these projections don't include the fact that players like Bannister and Meche are just different pitchers than they've been before. How bad must Chris Carpenter's projections have looked before, say, 2004? What about Johan Santana in 2002-03? Please.

Become a member of Royals Nation!

by Royals Nation on Feb 16, 2008 3:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

they loved Santana

and had the whole Free Johan thing going

I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

by LeoBloom on Feb 16, 2008 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow, didn't know that

I just assumed that since Santana never flourished in the Minor Leagues, and was really a bullpen guy initially....hmmm...good call.

Become a member of Royals Nation!

by Royals Nation on Feb 16, 2008 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pessimistic Bastards!

The Royals will show them! Our rally cry should be "80 in 08!" Such nice symmetry there!

I know I am a fan, so I have that bias thing going on, but damn ... there is no way this team is one of the worst in baseball next year. If the Royals win less than 75 next year I will be crushed.

Rock Chalk Talk for pretty good KU College Baseball Coverage

by James Quinn on Feb 16, 2008 3:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

whatever the pitching says

the offensive #s look about right... still not much power, Gordo leading the team with 19 HRs (they seem really down on Guillen)... DeJesus and teahen not bring too much to the table, etc

Hillman, you're on notice.

by FireBell on Feb 16, 2008 4:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The DeJesus prediction is ridiculously low

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Feb 16, 2008 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hmm...

I wouldn't say its ridiculously low (.274/.346/.397) but its certainly not optimistic

then again, the system wasn't last year either, which turned out to be fairly accurate

by royalsreview on Feb 16, 2008 7:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

for my money

its the Buck prediction that looks really off:

.237/.308/.395, with 11 HRs

if you put your negative glasses on, the Buck/olivo Platoon is gonna be out-tastic

by royalsreview on Feb 16, 2008 7:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ridiculously low given his history

2004 287/360/402
2005 293/359/445
2006 295/364/446
2007 260/351/372
2007 274/346/397 (PECOTA projection)

So, at age 28, he's going to have a batting average and OBP lower than any year in his career? Why? Why would a player suddenly drop off at age 28? Why is that more likely than him rebounding to a level closer to what he did in the earlier 3/4ths of his career? And the same is true of his slugging percentage. They have him rebounding only slightly after 2007, but essentially writes off 2005 and 2006 (half of his career) as a fluke.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Feb 17, 2008 11:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The PECOTA projection is 2008

of course

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Feb 17, 2008 11:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Might be the comps

His top two comparables are Erstad and Kotsay. Erstad peaked at 26, and Kotsay, who aside from a career year at 28, was better at age 26 and younger (although he has had chronic back problems).

by Gopherballs on Feb 17, 2008 2:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

PECOTA

PECOTA is a statistical system. As such, it is sometimes wrong, but never capricious. There's something in the statistical performance of players similar to DeJesus that bodes poorly, and it would sure be nice to know what it is. We won't know who his new comps are, or what the similarity scores are, until the player cards are available over at BP, but Kotsay may be part of the issue. Do any of you know why Kotsay's offense tanked so much during his ostensible prime?

Generally speaking, how common is it for a player's performance to decline in his age 27 season the way DeJesus' did? What usually happens to such players going forward? I have a feeling PECOTA may be working with a smaller sample size than usual, which makes me feel a little better about DJ's chance of bouncing back.

by Melchizedek on Feb 18, 2008 4:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

PECOTA has the Mariners

as a 73 win team, although thats without Bedard

by royalsreview on Feb 16, 2008 7:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

PECOTA gets Ichiro! wrong everyear

As usual, it projects Ichiro to suck in 2008: 17 VORP, 304-346-384, 730 OPS. His lowest real OPS in MLB is 786. Real career average, 816.

Ichiro, in reality, is likely to be 15-20 runs better than that projection, and add 1.5-2 wins to that projection.

It is also projecting Johjima to suck: 10 VORP, 274-319-395, 714 OPS. Lowest real OPS in MLB 755, career average 769.

Johjima has been a LEAGUE AVERAGE hitter while playing catcher the last 2 years. PECOTA appears to be projecting him to hit worse than an average CATCHER.

Unlikely.

Johjima is likely to be an extra 15-20 runs or thereabouts better.

Those 2 guys should add an extra 3-4 wins to that projection.

visiting A's and Mets fan

by rfloh on Feb 17, 2008 6:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Johjima

I'm willing to buy that Ichiro brings something to his game that's hard to quantify. But the whole point of a system like PECOTA is to predict that declines of players like Johjima before they happen. Johjima is a 32 year old catcher. He might put up numbers in line with his career averages this year, but I'd bet against it. And plenty of players, especially slow ones with "old player skills" to begin with, have steep declines similar to what PECOTA predicts.

The Johjima line is pessimistic, but it isn't unreasonable.

by Melchizedek on Feb 18, 2008 4:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I love predictions like this

it just makes Royals post season taste that much sweeter!

BELIEVE

by Shooter on Feb 16, 2008 7:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

these numbers are a joke

whoever this guy is doesn't know anything

Hillman and Moore know what they are doing

by Dani Woodward on Feb 16, 2008 8:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

PECOTA

PECOTA basically projects the return of the 2006 versions of Meche and Bannister and 40+ starts wasted on replacement level starters de la Rosa and Davies. If that happens (and I don't think it will, at least regarding Meche and Bannister), so does 800+ RA.

If I remember correctly, Silver updates the projections throughout spring training, especially for the playing time assumptions. Hopefully by the end of March, de la Rosa and Davies are out of the rotation equation, replaced by Bale or Nunez.

On offense, they seemed a shade low, except for Ross Gload, which seemed high. At least Butler and Gordon have very good Breakout/Improvement ratings.

by Gopherballs on Feb 16, 2008 8:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs