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Rare Sighting: A Semi-Positive Justin Huber Story, Not Penned by a Blogger

Everyone's favorite Aussie got some play yesterday on the official team site:

Huber, who led the Texas League with a .343 average in 2005, batted .278 last year for Omaha and pounded 18 home runs with 68 RBIs in 77 games, a good production pace.

Just where he might fit with the 2008 Royals isn't certain. But he's rounded himself into sound shape with an accelerated conditioning program at a prominent facility in Melbourne. That came after his November trip to Taipei where he batted .381 for Australia in the World Cup.

Well, sorta positive I guess.

Especially in light of the Olivo suspension, it might not be a bad idea to see if Huber can still functionally catch. Sure, he's versatile now -- at the positions that everyone can play -- but if he can hack it as a possible emergency catcher for a few weeks, he might make the team out of Spring Training.

Or the Royals will just promote Tupman for a few weeks, which is about twenty times more likely. Although there was a brief movement towards teams being a little more cavalier with how they use the backup catcher slot, I can't see a proudly old-school regime like the Royals going the Matt LeCroy route.

----

You know what, this topic is so 2006, but I don't care.

While it seems like Huber is overripe as a prospect, and usually associated with Craig Brazell types, he's still only 25 years old. Super hotshot wunderkind Alex Gordon turned 24 last week. Joey Gathright is 26, as is Mark Teahen. Ryan Shealy is 28.

PECOTA pegs him as a .253/.323/.420 hitter this season, which certainly isn't great. Nevertheless, what that projection shows is that even if his batting average totally bottoms out, there's still residual patience and decent power there. Honestly, I think Huber is better than that line. His big league numbers we can basically discard right off the bat given how small and randomly distributed they've been, leaving us with a career .289/.369/.495 line over seven minor league seasons. With reasonable playing time I don't think Huber is a .250 hitter in the big leagues. (I'm not saying he'll hit .290 either, for the record.) Adding an extra single or two a week to his PECOTA line, and he's closer to .270/.340/.440. This is both fairly trivial and not a major accomplishment, but I think Huber could post a higher OBP next season than Ross Gload. And lets not even talk about Shealy.

As the movie said, "feel his pain".

Look, I know, I know. I am not a scout. I'm sure everyone in baseball knows there's a hole in his swing or that he can't hit a backdoor slider or whatever. I know he's not a prospect and that no one, from Goldstein to Baseball America cares one whit about him. I know he's bad with the glove. All that being said, I just don't see a player who quite deserves the Brazell treatment either.

We're now on year three of dreaming about the magical day when Mark Teahen "breaks out". We're on year two of hoping that Shealy puts it all together. We're on year three of seeing what we have in Shane Costa. Those players are older than Huber.

We push optimistic narratives from some players -- "John Buck was messed up last season by Buddy Bell" -- and pessimistic ones for others. But really, we aren't that smart, and neither are the professionals. The anti-stats counter-revolution has dedicated itself to "the human element" without considering how problematic that choice is. Human beings aren't half as good at evaluating situations as they think they are: we invent patterns that aren't causal, our senses are poor and not well-fitted to memory and we're driven by biases and easily duped. Even with people we like, or even love, the exact same event splits off into multiple versions seconds after it occurs. (For those with spouses, or approximations, think about how the two of you can remember the same thing in two completely different ways.) Baseball is no different. I need to be careful here, but its pretty easy to see biases throughout the game, especially in player projection. I'm not talking about media coverage and beloved white grittiness, either, but more along the lines of positional development curves and player-types. For example, ever notice a trend among those, "great stuff, just need to iron out their control/approach" pitchers that bounce from team to team and get about five gazillion chances?

Anyway, the industry has soured on Huber, and his time with the Royals is just about done. We'll move on. I don't know if it was because he came from a different culture and subtly threw people off unintentionally or didn't properly demonstrate appropriate jock-behavior, or if he's a legitimately bad guy or if he's just, ultimately, not good enough. I do know that he never got a proper shot with this team, and I'd be stunned if that didn't effect his semi-downturn last year. Still, we'll never really know how he might have done, because he never got a chance.

For most of us, that last bit sounds familiar. We had a good tryout, but didn't make the team. We thought we did a good job on our college application, but didn't get into our top choice. We studied for the LSAT, but then choked on exam day. We thought we nailed the interview, but they hired someone else. We joined the Army to be in Special Forces, but ended up inside a tank. We wanted to be a screenwriter in Hollywood, but after six months had to move back home and find a "real job". Maybe we just weren't good enough or maybe we just needed someone to believe in us who, finally, didn't. Neither option is really comforting.

So in that small way, as a loser slogging away in the Midwest, you can understand why I'll always find someone like Justin Huber easier to root for than one of the golden ones.

0 recs  |  Comment 28 comments

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Great write-up
"I'm tired of all these stupid a$$ questions every day. Why the f**k would I hit Brett for Miller?" The rest is history.

by DC Royal on Feb 22, 2008 6:39 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

FWIW, ZIPS
ZIPS thinks Huber can hit .279/.334/.437 this year.

by royalsreview on Feb 22, 2008 6:49 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

The bad news is
that line is considerably below average for a 1B/DH. According to ZIPS, a league average 1B/DH playing half his games at the K should hit 284/363/477 (essentially Billy Butler's projection).  Huber's projection is almost exactly the same as Gload (292/332/447) and Shealy (268/336/439).

1B/DH-types who walk less than 10% of the time and lack the skills to hit for a high average are not going to get on-base enough to hold down a job as a major league regular.  There is just not much demand for players with Huber's skillset.  Josh Phelps, a better hitting version of Huber, has to take NRIs every year.

by Gopherballs on Feb 22, 2008 7:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

way to defend your boy
the issue is, not to be dismissive, not about all these wider things, just, have the royals played the best options the most at COF/1B/DH

I think the answer is no-way. Huber would have been a better fit.

I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

by LeoBloom on Feb 22, 2008 7:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

phelps turns 30 this season
Hillman, you're on notice.

by FireBell on Feb 22, 2008 8:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Phelps is an example
of what might be Huber's best case scenario.  Even if Huber improves into Phelps' class of hitter (MLB career line of 273/344/476), there is not much demand for that type of hitter considering that they have no defensive value.

by Gopherballs on Feb 22, 2008 8:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

but should that be the case?
i'd take phelps over gload any day
Hillman, you're on notice.

by FireBell on Feb 22, 2008 9:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Good point, but
The Royals are bound to have one of those three (Huber, Shealy, Gload) in the linup everyday, so why shouldn't it be Huber? He has good minor league chops, is the youngest of the three, and there was at least some point in the past when scouts thought he could hit well enough to play 1B in the majors. I'm not saying he's a worldbeater, but isn't he the 1B option with the most upside?

by Melchizedek on Feb 24, 2008 5:39 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

it was an updated version of Blame It On Rio
I pitched it as a vehicle for Paul Reiser/Larry David and Tim Allen with Mischa Barton and Lindsey Lohan as the girls.

(no, not really)

by royalsreview on Feb 22, 2008 7:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

that isn't a screenplay
I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

by LeoBloom on Feb 22, 2008 7:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You have to bring back
Michael Caine and Joseph Bologna, at least for cameos as the grandfathers or something (assuming of course Bologna is still alive).

I never had the talents for a full length screenplay, but I had two pilots I never wrote or pitched:  "Rockin' the Cradle," in which a former 90's rocker settles down and opens a home day care (hijinks ensue), and "Retirement Home of Justice," which takes place in a nursing home for superheroes who mentor a teenage orderly just discovering his powers (again, hijinks ensue).  The first one was pre-"Daddy Day Care," and the second was pre-"Heroes."

by Gopherballs on Feb 22, 2008 8:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i believe Bologna is still with us
so he should be in...

incidentally, there is no way an updated Blame it on Rio could be made today, even if you aged the girls  into legal age... but we can dream

who did you imagine in Rockin' the Cradle? A hardcore metal dude (Pantera) or more an alternative (STP) or pop type (Nada Surf)?
 

by royalsreview on Feb 22, 2008 8:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Demi Moore
was in the first one, and should definitely be in the sequel, since she's pretty much living it, re: Kucher

the new one should be gender reversed, which seems more enlightened, or contemporary or whatever

with Caine and Bologna sitting back and commenting wryly on it all

I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

by LeoBloom on Feb 22, 2008 8:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The idea was based on the lead singer of Live
I saw them on Letterman or something and thought, there is a guy who takes himself way too seriously -- wouldn't it be funny to see him around kids.

Hmm, Bologna could play the wacky old neighbor who complains about the noise from the kids.

by Gopherballs on Feb 22, 2008 8:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

you mean the guy behind Secret Samahdi
(or whatever) took himself seriously?

I can see it. You should take the pilots out of the drawer, polish them up, and see what happens next man...

by royalsreview on Feb 22, 2008 8:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

you know, I blame everything on Rio these days
thanks to that movie.  Damn you, Rio!
This space intentionally left blank.

by marbotty on Feb 23, 2008 9:53 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

including
giant vampire sea spiders?
Success is counted sweetest by those who ne'er succeed. - Emily Dickinson

by buddyball on Feb 23, 2008 10:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I might add that Huber will get a chance
Somewhere. It just won't be with KC.  Oakland is a possibility. Billy Beane has thrived with getting production out of Huber-esque types of players - guys with the talent to hold their own in the big leagues but who have been written off for whatever reason and have generally been mismanaged by the front office throughout a carrer of doing the AAA star-MLB benchwarming shuffle.

Here's a list of some of those types of players whom Beane has rescued from purgatory and given a fair chance of a full season of at-bats:

Jack Cust in 2007. Erubiel Durazo in 2003. Scott Hatteberg in 2002. Olmedo Saenz in 1999. Matt Stairs in 1997.  

Justin Huber in 2008?

"I'm tired of all these stupid a$$ questions every day. Why the f**k would I hit Brett for Miller?" The rest is history.

by DC Royal on Feb 22, 2008 6:54 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

keep hope alive
he only has to impress Hillman now
Hillman, you're on notice.

by FireBell on Feb 22, 2008 8:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

not a chance in freakin' hell
I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

by LeoBloom on Feb 22, 2008 8:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Huber
Will said above that it seems like it didn't matter to Baird or Moore how well Huber performed in the minors.  I don't think that's true.  I think they take all of his performance into account.  That means more than just stats.  When attempting to figure out if a player will be able to effective make the jump from the minors to the majors, one must look beyond his stats.  Many players do well in AAA and can't handle the majors.  Everyone (even the most analytical statheads) agrees that in evaluating a minor league player, you must look both at stats, and at skills.  While the stats usually look pretty good for Huber, I have a strong feeling that the scouts don't like him.  And I don't think it is some personal/attitudinal/behavioral thing.  I don't think that they think his skill set will translate well to the majors.  I wouldn't completely disregard their opinion.
I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Feb 22, 2008 8:18 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Wow
All of this since my last RR check?  I check this site, like, once every 2 hours.  Wow!

by Royals Nation on Feb 22, 2008 9:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

we have lame friday nights
Hillman, you're on notice.

by FireBell on Feb 22, 2008 9:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Huber brings out the passion of Royals fans
I don't know if that is inspiring, odd, sad or all of the above.
I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Feb 22, 2008 11:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

he certainly does
on this site!

I just hope he gets a fair shake this spring

Success is counted sweetest by those who ne'er succeed. - Emily Dickinson

by buddyball on Feb 23, 2008 10:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think it would be a good thing for Huber
to catch a few games in ST.  That would make his value to the team rise.  A fifth outfielder that could play first, be a third catcher, and DH.  Flexibility to the max...  if he could play SS he would be in like Flint.  Michigan that is...

by grudz69 on Feb 24, 2008 12:06 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

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