Rare Sighting: A Semi-Positive Justin Huber Story, Not Penned by a Blogger
Everyone's favorite Aussie got some play yesterday on the official team site:
Huber, who led the Texas League with a .343 average in 2005, batted .278 last year for Omaha and pounded 18 home runs with 68 RBIs in 77 games, a good production pace.
Just where he might fit with the 2008 Royals isn't certain. But he's rounded himself into sound shape with an accelerated conditioning program at a prominent facility in Melbourne. That came after his November trip to Taipei where he batted .381 for Australia in the World Cup.
Well, sorta positive I guess.
Especially in light of the Olivo suspension, it might not be a bad idea to see if Huber can still functionally catch. Sure, he's versatile now -- at the positions that everyone can play -- but if he can hack it as a possible emergency catcher for a few weeks, he might make the team out of Spring Training.
Or the Royals will just promote Tupman for a few weeks, which is about twenty times more likely. Although there was a brief movement towards teams being a little more cavalier with how they use the backup catcher slot, I can't see a proudly old-school regime like the Royals going the Matt LeCroy route.
----
You know what, this topic is so 2006, but I don't care.
While it seems like Huber is overripe as a prospect, and usually associated with Craig Brazell types, he's still only 25 years old. Super hotshot wunderkind Alex Gordon turned 24 last week. Joey Gathright is 26, as is Mark Teahen. Ryan Shealy is 28.
PECOTA pegs him as a .253/.323/.420 hitter this season, which certainly isn't great. Nevertheless, what that projection shows is that even if his batting average totally bottoms out, there's still residual patience and decent power there. Honestly, I think Huber is better than that line. His big league numbers we can basically discard right off the bat given how small and randomly distributed they've been, leaving us with a career .289/.369/.495 line over seven minor league seasons. With reasonable playing time I don't think Huber is a .250 hitter in the big leagues. (I'm not saying he'll hit .290 either, for the record.) Adding an extra single or two a week to his PECOTA line, and he's closer to .270/.340/.440. This is both fairly trivial and not a major accomplishment, but I think Huber could post a higher OBP next season than Ross Gload. And lets not even talk about Shealy.

As the movie said, "feel his pain".
Look, I know, I know. I am not a scout. I'm sure everyone in baseball knows there's a hole in his swing or that he can't hit a backdoor slider or whatever. I know he's not a prospect and that no one, from Goldstein to Baseball America cares one whit about him. I know he's bad with the glove. All that being said, I just don't see a player who quite deserves the Brazell treatment either.
We're now on year three of dreaming about the magical day when Mark Teahen "breaks out". We're on year two of hoping that Shealy puts it all together. We're on year three of seeing what we have in Shane Costa. Those players are older than Huber.
We push optimistic narratives from some players -- "John Buck was messed up last season by Buddy Bell" -- and pessimistic ones for others. But really, we aren't that smart, and neither are the professionals. The anti-stats counter-revolution has dedicated itself to "the human element" without considering how problematic that choice is. Human beings aren't half as good at evaluating situations as they think they are: we invent patterns that aren't causal, our senses are poor and not well-fitted to memory and we're driven by biases and easily duped. Even with people we like, or even love, the exact same event splits off into multiple versions seconds after it occurs. (For those with spouses, or approximations, think about how the two of you can remember the same thing in two completely different ways.) Baseball is no different. I need to be careful here, but its pretty easy to see biases throughout the game, especially in player projection. I'm not talking about media coverage and beloved white grittiness, either, but more along the lines of positional development curves and player-types. For example, ever notice a trend among those, "great stuff, just need to iron out their control/approach" pitchers that bounce from team to team and get about five gazillion chances?
Anyway, the industry has soured on Huber, and his time with the Royals is just about done. We'll move on. I don't know if it was because he came from a different culture and subtly threw people off unintentionally or didn't properly demonstrate appropriate jock-behavior, or if he's a legitimately bad guy or if he's just, ultimately, not good enough. I do know that he never got a proper shot with this team, and I'd be stunned if that didn't effect his semi-downturn last year. Still, we'll never really know how he might have done, because he never got a chance.
For most of us, that last bit sounds familiar. We had a good tryout, but didn't make the team. We thought we did a good job on our college application, but didn't get into our top choice. We studied for the LSAT, but then choked on exam day. We thought we nailed the interview, but they hired someone else. We joined the Army to be in Special Forces, but ended up inside a tank. We wanted to be a screenwriter in Hollywood, but after six months had to move back home and find a "real job". Maybe we just weren't good enough or maybe we just needed someone to believe in us who, finally, didn't. Neither option is really comforting.
So in that small way, as a loser slogging away in the Midwest, you can understand why I'll always find someone like Justin Huber easier to root for than one of the golden ones.
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Great write-up
by DC Royal on Feb 22, 2008 6:39 PM EST 0 recs
its not like they cut him
by DyeFan187 on Feb 22, 2008 6:46 PM EST 0 recs
yes, to an extent
by royalsreview on
Feb 22, 2008 6:49 PM EST
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FWIW, ZIPS
by royalsreview on Feb 22, 2008 6:49 PM EST 0 recs
The bad news is
1B/DH-types who walk less than 10% of the time and lack the skills to hit for a high average are not going to get on-base enough to hold down a job as a major league regular. There is just not much demand for players with Huber's skillset. Josh Phelps, a better hitting version of Huber, has to take NRIs every year.
by Gopherballs on
Feb 22, 2008 7:36 PM EST
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way to defend your boy
I think the answer is no-way. Huber would have been a better fit.
by LeoBloom on
Feb 22, 2008 7:58 PM EST
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phelps turns 30 this season
by FireBell on
Feb 22, 2008 8:14 PM EST
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Phelps is an example
by Gopherballs on
Feb 22, 2008 8:39 PM EST
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but should that be the case?
by FireBell on
Feb 22, 2008 9:37 PM EST
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Good point, but
by Melchizedek on
Feb 24, 2008 5:39 AM EST
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it was an updated version of Blame It On Rio
(no, not really)
by royalsreview on
Feb 22, 2008 7:52 PM EST
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that isn't a screenplay
by LeoBloom on
Feb 22, 2008 7:57 PM EST
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You have to bring back
I never had the talents for a full length screenplay, but I had two pilots I never wrote or pitched: "Rockin' the Cradle," in which a former 90's rocker settles down and opens a home day care (hijinks ensue), and "Retirement Home of Justice," which takes place in a nursing home for superheroes who mentor a teenage orderly just discovering his powers (again, hijinks ensue). The first one was pre-"Daddy Day Care," and the second was pre-"Heroes."
by Gopherballs on
Feb 22, 2008 8:05 PM EST
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i believe Bologna is still with us
incidentally, there is no way an updated Blame it on Rio could be made today, even if you aged the girls into legal age... but we can dream
who did you imagine in Rockin' the Cradle? A hardcore metal dude (Pantera) or more an alternative (STP) or pop type (Nada Surf)?
by royalsreview on
Feb 22, 2008 8:19 PM EST
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Demi Moore
the new one should be gender reversed, which seems more enlightened, or contemporary or whatever
with Caine and Bologna sitting back and commenting wryly on it all
by LeoBloom on
Feb 22, 2008 8:26 PM EST
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The idea was based on the lead singer of Live
Hmm, Bologna could play the wacky old neighbor who complains about the noise from the kids.
by Gopherballs on
Feb 22, 2008 8:33 PM EST
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you mean the guy behind Secret Samahdi
I can see it. You should take the pilots out of the drawer, polish them up, and see what happens next man...
by royalsreview on
Feb 22, 2008 8:35 PM EST
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you know, I blame everything on Rio these days
by marbotty on
Feb 23, 2008 9:53 AM EST
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including
by buddyball on
Feb 23, 2008 10:53 PM EST
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I might add that Huber will get a chance
Here's a list of some of those types of players whom Beane has rescued from purgatory and given a fair chance of a full season of at-bats:
Jack Cust in 2007. Erubiel Durazo in 2003. Scott Hatteberg in 2002. Olmedo Saenz in 1999. Matt Stairs in 1997.
Justin Huber in 2008?
by DC Royal on Feb 22, 2008 6:54 PM EST 0 recs
is huber as good as those players?
by DyeFan187 on
Feb 22, 2008 6:58 PM EST
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Very comparable in terms of minor league numbers
Aggregate Minor League stats:
Cust - .286/.409/.518
Huber - .288/.383/.495
Saenz - .280/.358/.449
Hatteberg - .256/.360/.384
Durazo - .354/.446/.605
by DC Royal on
Feb 22, 2008 7:43 PM EST
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Forgot Stairs
by DC Royal on
Feb 22, 2008 7:44 PM EST
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interesting
by DyeFan187 on
Feb 22, 2008 7:49 PM EST
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Per B-Ref
by Gopherballs on
Feb 22, 2008 8:01 PM EST
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Durazo
by Melchizedek on
Feb 24, 2008 5:45 AM EST
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keep hope alive
by FireBell on Feb 22, 2008 8:13 PM EST 0 recs
not a chance in freakin' hell
by LeoBloom on
Feb 22, 2008 8:26 PM EST
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Huber
by NYRoyal on Feb 22, 2008 8:18 PM EST 0 recs
Wow
by Royals Nation on Feb 22, 2008 9:13 PM EST 0 recs
we have lame friday nights
by FireBell on
Feb 22, 2008 9:37 PM EST
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Huber brings out the passion of Royals fans
by NYRoyal on
Feb 22, 2008 11:19 PM EST
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he certainly does
I just hope he gets a fair shake this spring
by buddyball on
Feb 23, 2008 10:59 PM EST
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weep not for huber
and he's a ballplayer, also helps
by DyeFan187 on Feb 22, 2008 11:37 PM EST 0 recs
And he has job security
by NYRoyal on
Feb 22, 2008 11:42 PM EST
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wow
by DyeFan187 on
Feb 22, 2008 11:45 PM EST
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Prospects usually fail
by NYRoyal on
Feb 23, 2008 2:53 AM EST
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if there were more Billy Beanes in the league
by marbotty on
Feb 23, 2008 9:58 AM EST
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Perhaps
For the vast majority of Huber-like guys, they don't get a shot because they really aren't good enough. For every Jack Cust, there are dozens of Cal Pickerings and Craig Brazells who simply aren't major league players and that is why every MLB team passes on them.
by NYRoyal on
Feb 23, 2008 3:39 PM EST
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yes, that is likely the case
As I said, I think this issue is so last year, or even 2006, when the Royals had no good reason not to give him 300 or so PAs at the big league level. Remember, this is the same team that played Super Joe at first.
by royalsreview on
Feb 23, 2008 4:39 PM EST
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Hmmm
And this isn't just an old school, traditional way of evaluating a player. Even the most analysis-friendly front offices don't just rely on minor league stats when evaluating a prospect, because minor league stats have limited meaning. One little piece of anecdotal evidence to support this:
Timo Perez (AAA)
328/373/506 (1270 AB)
Justin Huber (AAA)
278/354/501 (767 AB)
Timo Perez (MLB)
269/308/382 (1671 AB)
I'm not looking forward to Huber's 1600 AB's of futility.
by NYRoyal on
Feb 23, 2008 5:01 PM EST
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is Timo a fair comparison?
Huber seems to have a lot more patience and power by comparison.
by marbotty on
Feb 24, 2008 6:32 AM EST
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I could list a dozen guys
by NYRoyal on
Feb 24, 2008 3:14 PM EST
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Just to make the counterargument
With Huber, the thinking--not necessarily correct, but not necessarily wrong either--is that we haven't seen enough of him in the majors for him to fully adjust and put up numbers that would show how his skill set would translate.
by NHZ on
Feb 24, 2008 1:22 PM EST
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Clearly, we don't know
1. Sure Huber should have gotten a shot.
BUT
2. If Huber gets a shot (or would have gotten one in the past), we shouldn't expect him to be a decent major leaguer. Indeed, playing the percentages, we should expect the opposite.
I think Huber hasn't gotten a shot for a reason (reason*s*, actually). And, as those decisionmakers know Huber and his skill set more intimately that we do, maybe those were actually good reasons.
by NYRoyal on
Feb 24, 2008 3:19 PM EST
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We can, we have,
by NHZ on
Feb 24, 2008 1:23 PM EST
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I think it would be a good thing for Huber
by grudz69 on Feb 24, 2008 12:06 AM EST 0 recs









