Projected lineup?

by Rhody Royals on Mar 10, 2008 1:08 PM EDT

David DeJesus led off and played center field followed second baseman Mark Grudzielanek, first baseman Ross Gload, Guillen in right, third baseman Alex Gordon, designated hitter Billy Butler, left fielder Mark Teahen, catcher John Buck and shortstop Tony Peña.

What does everyone think of the possible lineup that was mentioned yesterday? Would Gload really be put in the 3 spot? I would have thought either Teahen or Gordon would be there. Otherwise, it was pretty much what I expected.

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Sounds about right

Gload at #3 is both surprising and silly. Although the difference between Gload at #3 and Teahen, Gordon or Butler at #3 is probably about 1-2 total runs, and that is if that lineup were used for all 162 games.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Mar 10, 2008 1:15 PM EDT reply actions

I think its more runs than that

When you consider how many more at bats Gload will get than Teahen by hitting that much higher.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 10, 2008 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions

My hang-up is...

that I would rather have Teahen, Gordon or Butler up with men on base than Gload. I would also agree that the run differential would be more than 1-2...

by Rhody Royals on Mar 10, 2008 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed on Butler

But Gload slugged more than 30 points higher than Teahen in 2007, plus in clutch situations like runners in scoring position w/ 2 outs, Gload batted .361/.410/.556, with an OPS of .966. Teahen's 2 out/RISP line in 2007 was .310/.474/.483, with an OPS of .956. Lower OBP with Gload, but way higher SLG and an overall higher OPS. Based on 2007, I'd rather have Gload up with runners on base than Teahen.

by DarthYoshi on Mar 10, 2008 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions

I Thought Sabermetricians

Regarded "clutch" as non-existent and RISP hitting as a non-reproducible result.

I'm not getting older....oh, wait, yes I am....and slower.... and weaker. God, this is great!

by philofthenorth on Mar 10, 2008 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Late Inning Pressure Situations

...aka LIPS, is a sabermetric stat and an attempt to quantify a "clutch" situation. Admittedly, 2 out/RISP does not necessarily fall under LIPS criteria (it can, but doesn't always). LIPS isn't really used much, either.

But I don't embrace sabermetrics exclusively. I think utilizing a mixture of traditional stats and sabermetrics is still productive.

by DarthYoshi on Mar 10, 2008 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions

While it can be measured...

...I don't think it is particularly meaningful. The available data strongly suggests that "clutch hitting" isn't a real skill. It wildly fluctuates from season to season...as if it were a random occurrence.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Mar 10, 2008 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions

For 2007, but I was thinking

more along the lines of their career numbers. Teahen's numbers are (.310 .431 .460 .891) while Gload is only higher in slugging (.307 .371 .466 .837). I was also thinking that having an "on-base" kind of guy in front of Guillen, Gordon and Butler would be a little better.

by Rhody Royals on Mar 10, 2008 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions

As with almost any baseball player

anywhere, Gload's RISP numbers will regress towards the mean this year. Don't place much faith in him having some clutch ability, because other than, say, David Ortiz, no one has that.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Mar 10, 2008 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions

What About

Pat Tabler?

I'm not getting older....oh, wait, yes I am....and slower.... and weaker. God, this is great!

by philofthenorth on Mar 10, 2008 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions

There are multiple possibilities

He was a freak
He got lucky a lot
He's the exception that proves the rule
He's a witch. Burn him.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Mar 10, 2008 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions

on #4

Only if he weighs the same as a duck.

by DarthYoshi on Mar 10, 2008 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions

I Thought The

Float test was the definitive.

I'm not getting older....oh, wait, yes I am....and slower.... and weaker. God, this is great!

by philofthenorth on Mar 10, 2008 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions

You're all wrong

He derived his power from his permullet. It was....awesome.

And for anyone that doesn't know what the heck we're talking about, check out these insane numbers.

Mild-mannered Pat Tabler

.282/.345/.379 99 OPS+ career

CLUTCH PAT TABLER! TABLER ANGRY! TABLER WANT HIT BALL!!!!

Bases loaded career - .489/.505/.693 109 plate appearances, 108 RBI

In 1988 with the Royals he was 8-9 with the bases loaded with 19 RBI.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 10, 2008 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions

That is one of the

funniest things I've ever seen. Thank you RoyalsRetro. You made my day with that one.

by royaldaddy on Mar 10, 2008 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

by ctrell on Mar 10, 2008 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Not really

The difference between the most optimal lineup (roughly descending OBP's from the top down) being used 162 times versus the least optimal lineup (roughly ascending OBP's from the top down: TPJ leading off) being used 162 times is about 25 runs. So moving Gload down a few spots and Teahen, Gordon or Butler up a few would end up making a very minor, tiny little difference. I would estimate it at about 1-2 runs.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Mar 10, 2008 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions

By the way

How is that you ended up a Royals fan living in NY? I grew up in Rhode Island and find that just about EVERYONE is either a Sox fan or Yankees fan. It has been pretty difficult living here lately with the Royals playing so poorly...

by Rhody Royals on Mar 10, 2008 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions

I grew up in Kansas

Derby, KS until I was 17, then to K-State for college. I went out of state to graduate school and then came back to KS for a while. Moved to New York in 2000.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Mar 10, 2008 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm In Mariner

Country (Alaska); it's not easy living anywhere with the Royals playing poorly. The lineup yesterday was close to a regular season lineup; 2 hits? Against Dumpster and Co.? What's up with that?

I'm not getting older....oh, wait, yes I am....and slower.... and weaker. God, this is great!

by philofthenorth on Mar 10, 2008 1:37 PM EDT reply actions

Agreed!

My biggest issue here though is that Sox fans have become exactly what they always used to complain about the most... they have become "yankee fans" in that they think it's their birthright to win the world series every year. They have become quite obnoxious in these parts!

by Rhody Royals on Mar 10, 2008 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Gload in the 3 hole

I don't want to argue about the run differential with NYRoyal - I'm willing to agree with whatever figures are thrown out there, and that they would be relatively minor; however,

just for the sake of the Royal fans' hope for the future, I REALLY hope Hillman doesn't bat Gload 3rd. Here are a few reasons:

Here would be the 5 guys batting #3 from our division: Thome, Hafner, Sheffield, Mauer, and GLOAD. Oh my God. Reread that, and let it sink in a minute.
Gload is one guy that could easily be pinch hit for in a platoon situation - should a guy like that really be hitting 3rd?
We all have sorta agreed that, in an ideal world, Gload would be a nice bench player. Instead, he is going to not only be providing below avg 1B production, he is also going to be hitting in the spot normally reserved for your best hitter? Absurd.
Everyone can probably agree that eventually our #3 hitter will come from among Butler/Teahen/Gordon. Why not start preparing them for the role now? Personally, I don't think Gordon is quite ready for it, but I think either Butler or Teahen could benefit from the added responsibility.

by loyal2s dad on Mar 10, 2008 1:50 PM EDT reply actions

Development

Is the best way to develop a #3 hitter to push them into that role before you are certain he is ready for it? I would be strongly tempted to see how Butler or Gordon performs in the first two or three months of the season. If they are handling MLB pitching well, then maybe one of them could slot into the 3-hole.

By the way, my description of run differences for various kinds of lineups isn't a creation of mine. BP and others have run the simulations with every different lineup permutatation thousands of times and found that minor lineup tweaks have a miniscule effect on runs scored. The above numbers I gave are from BP's book "Baseball Between the Numbers."

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Mar 10, 2008 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree...

Teahen should be given a shot at the 3rd spot.

by grudz69 on Mar 10, 2008 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Teahen hit third most of last year

I'd say he's ready for it and can do a much better job than Gload, and I'm not even that high on Teahen.

BTW, Teahen hit .285/.351/.416 in the #3 spot last year. Lifetime he is .293/.359/.440.

Gload hit .226/.290/.339 in 69 at bats in the #3 hole. Gload is .298/.362/.462 for his career. So maybe that's what Trey is looking at.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 10, 2008 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions

My lineup

While I think moving a few players up or down a spot or two would have an extremely minor effect on the offense, this is the lineup I would use if I were manager:

DeJesus (L)
Butler (R)
Teahen (L)
Guillen (R)
Gordon (L)
Buck (R)
Gload (L)
Grudzielanek (R)
Pena (R)

I think this would be pretty close to the Sabermetric optimal lineup with a little tweaking.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Mar 10, 2008 2:01 PM EDT reply actions

I'm surprised

by having Butler in the 2 spot instead of Grudz. I was thinking Butler more along the lines of 5 or 6. Just curious why you would suggest Butler there?

by Rhody Royals on Mar 10, 2008 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Butler at #2?

Interesting choice. Not necessarily what I would have done, given the OBP sinks that exist at the end of the Royals lineup (Buck, Pena, and Gload and Grudz to a degree). I think switching Teahen and Butler would make more sense, even though that puts two lefties back-to-back in the lineup.

by DarthYoshi on Mar 10, 2008 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Optimal lineup

A common feature in the sabermetric optimal lineup is having the highest OPS hitter at #2. DeJesus makes sense at #1 as he will likely have the best OBP on the team. Butler may have the best OBP and best OPS, so he should be #2.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Mar 10, 2008 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions

I like that a lot

Gives decent protection for both Butler and Gordon which could help their development. And I think it gives us the best chance to score runs.

No way we do it though. Hillman says he thinks out of the box but with his emphasis on baserunning, I don't think he'll be putting a guy like Butler in between good baserunners like DJ and Teahen for fear he'll "clog the bases." I'd like to see it happen though.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 10, 2008 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Butler Is Not

Only slow, but he seems to be a bad baserunner, too. It's as though he thinks he's fast.

I'm not getting older....oh, wait, yes I am....and slower.... and weaker. God, this is great!

by philofthenorth on Mar 10, 2008 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd try this...

DeJesus, cf (L)
Callaspo, ss (S)
Guillen, rf (R)
Butler, 1b (R)
Gordon, 3b (L)
Teahen, lf (L)
Huber/Shealy, dh (R)
Grudz, 2b (R)
Buck, c (R)

It won't happen, but I like it.

by doublestix on Mar 10, 2008 2:16 PM EDT reply actions

pinto lineup toy

play with it

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py

by Freneau on Mar 10, 2008 2:22 PM EDT reply actions

Based on ZIPs projections

The best lineup is:

CF DeJesus
DH Butler
LF Teahen
3B Gordon
1B Shealy/Gload
C Buck
RF Guillen
SS Pena
2B Grudz

Averages 4.88 runs/game

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 10, 2008 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions

That Wouldn't Be

Fair to Guillie.

I'm not getting older....oh, wait, yes I am....and slower.... and weaker. God, this is great!

by philofthenorth on Mar 10, 2008 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions

PECOTA was fair to Guillie

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Mar 10, 2008 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions

hi

thanks for the link, I used some different numbers for Callaspo (who I like this year) and Butler (who I think VERY highly of), since neither had full seasons in MLB and got this:

Callaspo: .353/.405
Butler: .374/.483
(OBP/SLG)(Callaspo's minor league numbers were 62% of his total AB's, Butler's minor league numbers were 39% of his total AB's)

Anyway, I chose Callaspo over Grudz in this case because of age, defense and talent (and personal preference)(but I could see using Callaspo instead of Pena if he can handle SS)

Here it is:
2B-Callaspo
DH-Butler
LF-Teahen
3BGordon
RF-Guillen
C -Buck
1B-Gload
SS-Pena
CF-DeJesus

4.97 runs per game (a lineup with Grudz over Callaspo yields the same amount of runs, to my surprise)

But if I were to switch Callaspo at SS instead of Pena (the biggest liability in the starting lineup offensively), just for fun (providing Callaspo's effective defensively, of course):

a whopping 5.192 runs per game with both in the lineup! (Baseball Musings has the Yankees at 5.98, the Tigers at 5.75, the Red Sox at 5.86, and the Indians at 5.67 this year, welcome to mediocrity Royals Fans, it's better than where you were. Please tip your general manager and do drive safely.)

the best lineup according to the website is either:
SS-Callaspo or Teahen
DH-Butler
LF-Teahen or Callaspo
3B-Gordon
RF-Guillen
1B-Gload
2B-Grudz
C -Buck
CF-DeJesus

Realistically, will Callaspo be this good? I don't know. He's shown an ability to get hits, get on base, not strike out and hit for a few extra bases, which is more than anyone can say for Pena. But I don't think he's close to how bad Pena was offensively last year (or the year before that, or any year he played in the minor really)

by phiago on Mar 13, 2008 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I like Callaspo

But I don't think he's going to hit like that in his first full season in the majors. I hope he does, but I'd bet against it. And when comparing Callaspo and Pena, you also have to account for the fact that Pena will save runs with his plus-plus defense that Callaspo would not. I don't know if Pena's D makes up for his bat, but it has to be taken into consideration. And Callaspo's hitting in the majors is a complete unknown at this point. It is quite possible that in his first full season, he'd hit a lot like Pena.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Mar 13, 2008 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Whatever Trey does, ...

... I hope he doesn't get overly discouraged by yesterday's results.

As a dual Royals-Cubs fan, I've been following the Cubs off-season closely. Dempster has himself in possibly the best shape of his career, and is approaching his chance to start like there's no tomorrow. Unlike Tomko (who we've discussed ad nauseum in my other post), Dempster also has a past history of success.

In sum, the fact that the Royals did poorly against Dempster and the rest isn't the end of the world. The Cubs will likely have one of the top-three pitching staffs in the National League---World Series worthy, even.

I really believe that yesteray's line-up will eventually produce. - TL

PS - To DarthYoshi & NYRoyal: In case you're wondering, this is why I passed ~no~ judgment on yesterday's offensive performance. - TL

Trust Trey and Dayton.

by timlacy on Mar 10, 2008 4:50 PM EDT reply actions

Passing judgment

You did say that if Tomko had another ST outing like yesterday, that he should be a candidate for release. Do you really stand by that?

And I'm not going to argue that Tomko is better than Dempster, but since you said "_ Unlike Tomko, Dempster also has a past history of success," it is interesting to compare their past histories of success, career-wise.

ERA
Tomko 4.62
Dempster 4.82

ERA+
Tomko 93
Dempster 89

WHIP
Tomko 1.37
Dempster 1.54

Tomko clearly has the better "past history of success." But Dempster is younger, so he's better right now.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Mar 10, 2008 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions

I do believe...

...that Tomko has to perform. I feel like there's justifiably more pressure on him. But I will concede this: Grudz's errors affected the numerical bottom line. The key for Tomko, for the rest of the spring, is to not get hit as hard as he did yesterday. In sum, I stand by my judgment of Tomko. He's got to improve, or he should be a candidate for release.

On comparing him Dempster, well, Dempster was the closer. One bad game as a closer can disproportionately affect numbers. As you said, Dempster is younger. He was also a 15-game winner one season, and had 200 strikeouts in another. In sum, Dempster's upside is demonstrably better.

Again, however, I trust Trey and Hillman. If they've seen something in Tomko, I'll be patient. - TL

Trust Trey and Dayton.

by timlacy on Mar 10, 2008 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Hmmm

On comparing him Dempster, well, Dempster was the closer. One bad game as a closer can disproportionately affect numbers.

Yes, but I wasn't looking at one game or even one season. The effect of "one bad game" is erased when you're looking at a career's stats including over 1200 career innings. And, the fact that the majority of Demptster's stats came as a reliever while the majority of Tomko's were as a starter is in Tomko's favor. Pitching in relief is always easier and relievers should have better stats (don't have to go deep into games and don't have to face batters more than once). And one more:

K/BB
Tomko 2.1
Dempster 1.7

In sum, Dempster's upside is demonstrably better.

Based on age, yes. But Tomko has clearly had the superior "past history of success."

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Mar 10, 2008 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Grudz

Why is he being kicked to the back of the lineup? Age discrimination?

by royallyblue on Mar 10, 2008 5:03 PM EDT reply actions

Two things

His OBP isn't good enough to justify batting him #2.
A recognition that at his age, he's very likely to be worse this year than last year...maybe a lot worse.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Mar 10, 2008 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions

OK, My Lineup

I don't think it's changed much:

DDJ CF
Callie 2B
Teahie RF
Guillie LF
A-Gor 3B
Butler 1B/DH
Shealy/Gload 1B (both) DH (Shealy)
Buck/Olivo C
TPJ SS

I'd like to see Gload mostly as a LHB on the bench and occasional starter at 1B against a really tough RHP with Butler at DH. I wouldn't mind seeing Gritz at 2B to start the season, but unless we catch lightning in a bottle he needs to be traded during the season. I'm irrationally high on Callaspo; I know it's only ST, but I really like what I see so far. Having Callaspo and German gives us flexibility in the field, and they're both young and cheap. I hope GMDM has a few more rabbits in his hat, but with what we have now that this seems to be as well as we can do.

I'm not getting older....oh, wait, yes I am....and slower.... and weaker. God, this is great!

by philofthenorth on Mar 10, 2008 10:01 PM EDT reply actions

my lineup

cf dejesus
2b grudzielanek
dh butler
3b gordon
rf guillen
lf teahen
c buck/olivo
1b gload
ss pena

i feel it does a good job balancing l/r and puts people in natural spots to succeed (gordon protected by guillen, buck/olivo in a position to make homers matter, gload in a contact spot, and our best hitter in the 3 spot)

Never giving up on your team is what makes you a good fan.

by kcisbetterthanstlateverything on Mar 11, 2008 1:23 PM EDT reply actions

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