Spring Training Impressions
As NYRoyal pointed out earlier this month, Spring Training statistics, not unlike most stories you read about teams having a new attitude or players showing up in great shape, are mostly meaningless. In fact, a few weeks of regular season stats aren't worth all that much either, for players or for teams. In this decade, we've seen numerous cases of teams looking thoroughly mediocre through 60 games, or 100, or even 120 games, then suddenly something clicks, and a .700 team breaks out. And while this doesn't seem directly tied to the Wild Card itself, in the Wild Card Era, it has become much more difficult to say much of anything definite about a team's chances until rather late in the game. With all that said, lets have a looksie at the Spring Training numbers, to see if anything extreme or even interesting jumps out.

Like Pam, we share our impressions. (But we wouldn't call ourselves an Impressionist just yet!)
Good
- The Royals have thirteen players hitting over .300, and four over .400, including Mike Aviles. Aviles, who turned 27 on the 13th, is hitting .423/.464/.538 in fairly regular action. Looking at his minor league profile, this is a standard Aviles stretch, except he's hitting .423 instead of .270. He doesn't walk much, although he has shown some interesting power potential recently in Omaha, where he hit 17 homers and slugged .462 last season. I'm not clamoring for him to make the team or anything, but in light of the Grudzielanek situation, Aviles is a nice organizational depth guy.
- Extend everything above about Mike Aviles to Alberto Callaspo, only with an added caveat that he's actually going to make the 25 man roster out of camp. Callaspo is hitting .359/.405/.564 this Spring. Mostly meaningless and non-indicative of anything? Yes. But still nice. Dayton's decision to extend Grudz looks more and more pointless with each passing hour, but at least he took the step this winter of bringing Callaspo. No word on how Callaspo's domestic abuse performance has been this Spring however.
- I suppose its just something we take for granted at this point, but Billy Butler has had no trouble with Cactus League pitching, posting a .378/.452/.676 line. Remember, he's still only 21 years old, nearly a full five years younger than another "young" player like Mark Teahen. While Dayton Moore has essentially turned over the entire pitching staff, the core of the lineup remains an expression of the Baird regime. (Well, Moore has brought in Ross Gload, Joey Gathright and Ryan Shealy, but I like to pretend those moves never happened.)
- You can't mention Billy without bringing up Alex Gordon, and like his sidekick, Gordon has enjoyed a nice March thus far. In addition to a .355/.487/.452 line, there exists the slightest evidence that some of the big problems we saw last year (uneven plate coverage and discipline) might be getting fixed: Gordon's only struck out four times, against seven walks, and is tied with Mark Teahen for second on the team in that category.
- The team leader in walks is David DeJesus, with eight. While it was encouraging to see the Royals stressing OBP to David earlier this month, it also seemed slightly odd, given that he's actually been solid in that category for years now. If anything, it appears that the Brain Trust has reconnected OBP with their old-school vision of a "leadoff man", but still haven't quite extended that approach to the rest of the lineup. Progress I suppose, although it would be better if we could also untie ourselves from notions like Ross Gload as a regular, top of the lineup player.
- Justin Huber hasn't found regular playing time this spring, and through Sunday only had 18 plate appearances in Surprise. Still, he's hit .400/.474/.800 in those scattered chances, which is certainly a nice thing. Sadly, Huber's closer to the Mario Lisson side of the roster than the happier one. Nevertheless, considering that he's also struggled afield, it's a good thing he's made use of his opportunities to rake. While there remains some possibility he might briefly make the team as a Guillen replacement during Jose's steroids suspension, the more likely byproduct of his nice Spring is that he gets some more attractive minor league offers than he would have otherwise.
- Considering the way that Arizona, along with other Spring Training factors, tends to inflate the offensive numbers, it's a bit more difficult to evaluate the team's hurlers, at least from afar. Not helping matters is that none of the starters are pitching in anything like their normal usage patterns, which can lead to some odd lines. That being said, above all else what stands out to me is Gil Meche's early performance, especially his nine strikeouts in ten innings pitched. Better yet, he's only walked two men. I've always felt that Meche lacked a consistent ability to miss bats, limiting his ceiling. Last season, while his strikeout numbers stayed comparable, he cut down on walks, which made all the difference. So far, the continuance of that control trend is reflected in the very limited data we've also seen, as well as a possible uptick in Ks. Keep your fingers crossed.
- In just eight innings, Joakim Soria has picked up where he left off last season, at least in terms of controling the plate. He's walked just one, while striking out nine.
- Beyond that, its hard to find too many statistically appealing performances from the pitching staff. Hideo Nomo has managed to strike out a batter per inning, but because he's allowed so many hits (17) its not as if he's actually striking out every third guy.
- Its been strange to follow Angel Berroa this Spring. He's still Angel, hitting .263/.333/.263 in a scant 19 PAs, but now we know he can't hurt us anymore. Sure, he's the 64th Greatest Royal of All Time, but by the end of his stint as a regular player, he was so bad that he's actually made Tony Pena Jr. seem good.
- This is fairly petty of me, but Ross Gload is walkless through 39 trips to the plate this Spring. Yea, he's hitting .308/.308/.513, and yes its Spring and time for him to be proverbialy "working things out" etc.. Nevertheless, that's the problem with Gload in a nutshell. Making an out 69% of the time hurts the lineup.
- Oddly enough, Shane Costa hasn't seen much playing time this Spring, but he also hasn't hit much in the odd times he's stepped to the plate either, posting a .235/.235/.300. At last check, the Royals still owned an option regarding Costa - was there anything better than the "Shane Costa is out of options!" scare across the Royals blogosphere this winter? - but above all else its interesting to see Costa's playing time eaten into by non-starters like Huber and Maier.
- Not that we were expecting better, but Tony Pena Jr. hasn't shown much development thus far, hitting .273/.314/.333 in 34 PAs. Since the Royals seem unmoved by his lack of patience and inspired by Hillman's dream of a Bunter's Paradise, I say we just have Pena bunt every time up. Runners on or not, I honestly think it would be just as effective. Especially if every tenth time or so he tried to chope the ball over the thirdbaseman's head, just to keep things interesting. (Simmons voice) Tell me why this wouldn't be brilliant?
- As for the pitchers, even a true pessimist like me has a difficult time finding much fault in whats transpired. Aside from a handful of minor league types who haven't pitched much, and Meche and Soria, just about no one has a nice shiny ERA or anything like that to point to. Nevertheless, its Arizona and we're still in weird usage mode. One ugly spot has been a familiar one, however. In just over eight innings, our old pal Jorge de la Rosa has been his typical self, allowing a ton of baserunners en route to an ERA over 7.00. JDLR has thrown 274 innings at the Big League level, and owns a career ERA of 5.85. But his stuff, ohh his stuff. How fantastic it is! He's got "the good face" too.
Today's Game Thread will be posted in the diaries.-RR
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39 comments
Comments
Nomo
by NYRoyal on Mar 17, 2008 11:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yea, as much as a rip him
by royalsreview on Mar 17, 2008 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good wrap up of meaningless stats
I think Joey Gathright already bunts every time up, so that kinda lessens the surprise of having TPJ bunt every time up.
I think time is just about up on DLR. He could probably serve as a decent LOOGY someday, but the Royals have enough of those. If they can't find anyone that wants to trade them a bag of baseballs for him, my guess is he'll find himself on the waiver wire. I think Tomko and Bale have won the last two rotation spots, and carrying Gobble, Mahay AND de la Rosa seems a bit excessive, not to mention that Neal Musser has dominated AAA.
My last thought is that I want to thank everyone at Royals Review for helping me through the tough "Shane Costa is out of options" scare of 2007. It was nearly as terrifying as the "OMG Chris Lubanski is exposed to the Rule 5 Draft" scare and the "Why the hell did Dayton sign Ross Gload to a two year contract" fit of rage of 2007. Many thanks.
by RoyalsRetro on Mar 17, 2008 11:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Nomo
It's a bad case of name-itis. He's a recognizable name and that name evokes memories of past greatness. It is similar to the clamor for signing Colon. The fact that a guy won an award years ago doesn't necessarily mean he's even decent now. And both of those pitchers are done.
by NYRoyal on Mar 17, 2008 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No love for Shealy and his .600 SLG and .933 OPS?
by NYRoyal on Mar 17, 2008 11:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i was about to post something about that
by royalsreview on Mar 17, 2008 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Basically, TPJ is the pitcher
by royaldaddy on Mar 17, 2008 12:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Gload
We knew going into spring training that Butler was going to play either 1B or DH (and probably some of both) with Gload and Shealy (if he makes the team) playing the other position. There were no 1B/DH's in the last free agent class. There simply wasn't one available (except for Bonds), so we have to use that open position on a role player and an iffy player we hope develops. That happens in rebuilding years.
The good news is that Gload is decent and, unfortunately, he's probably better than both Shealy and Huber. The better news is that I think this problem will be solved next offseason with a free agent signing or trade which will fill that hole. Until then, we'll get by.
by NYRoyal on Mar 17, 2008 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What do we have in Shealy?
Huber's a butcher in the field (the only thing he's managed to catch is the flu!). I'm holding out hope for him to be a DH... somewhere else.
by KC Chris on Mar 17, 2008 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe Hubie Will
http://www.baseball.org.au/?Page=42241&MenuID=National%5FTeams%2F86%2F0%2F%2CNational%5FSenior%2 F20880%2F22702%2F%2CROSTER%2F20886%2F0%2F0
by philofthenorth on Mar 17, 2008 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gload's a nice player
by RoyalsRetro on Mar 17, 2008 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I believe
by buddyball on Mar 17, 2008 12:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thank God For
by philofthenorth on Mar 17, 2008 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
(begin sarcasm) Seriously!
Costa is a nice player who may or may not (more likely) ever make it as a 4th OFer. I sort of feel bad for those kind of players because you know they are trying as hard as they can, but will never be as good as some jerkoff that half-hustles most of the time. Then again, I want a winning team and how refreshing is it that we're getting to the point where the Shane Costas do not get starts in CF and lead off or hit cleanup? Anyway, thanks Shane for filling out the roster for a couple of frustrating years.
by KC Chris on Mar 17, 2008 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Between Costa and Huber
Costa: 328/394/533
Huber: 278/354/501
Costa has additional value as someone who can actually play a few defensive positions and hit left-handed. Going forward, Costa is the better bet to squeeze out some sort of a major league career.
by Gopherballs on Mar 17, 2008 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
Huber's on this path too, but he legitimately can say he didn't ge a shot. How frustrating would it be for a young guy to come up and ride the pine on a 100 loss team? Wouldn't you be thinking to yourself, "Man, none of these clowns can hit, and they don't even think I'm good enough for a September pinch hit..."?
Anyway, like I've said a couple of times, I'm glad we get to dissect guys like Huber and Costa now, and it's not because we're trying to justify their playing time over some other hack.
by KC Chris on Mar 17, 2008 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Huber
The odds are certainly less than 50/50, but Costa has the skills to find work as a 4th or 5th OF on an NL team. He hits left-handed, has shown that he can make contact and drive the ball in the minors, provides good defense in the OF corners, and can play a few innings in CF without embarassing himself. After bombing in the majors, it might take an injury or a different bit of luck to get another shot, but Costa could carve out a Guiel-like career (300+ G, 900+ AB).
And, yes, it is quite nice we are talking about these guys as occupying only the fringes of the roster.
by Gopherballs on Mar 17, 2008 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are We Sure
1B Gload/Shealy
2b Gritz
3B Gordon
SS TPJ
C Buck
LF Teahen
CF DDJ
RF Guillen
Bench: Gload/Shealy, Callaspo, Germy, Olivo, Gator
Someone has to go if they're keeping 12 pitchers.
by philofthenorth on Mar 17, 2008 1:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Guillen's suspension
by Gopherballs on Mar 17, 2008 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I Forgot To
by philofthenorth on Mar 17, 2008 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hillman recently said they might go with 11
by NYRoyal on Mar 17, 2008 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Saw this over at MLBTR
It was good for a chuckle. I realize you all have hashed out the Sweeney ordeal (and for the record, I'm glad he's gone), but ho bad would that suck he goes over there and destroys. Great for him, but c'mon, can we get a break?!?!?!
by KC Chris on Mar 17, 2008 2:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Can we get a break?
by MileHighKCfan on Mar 17, 2008 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know
by KC Chris on Mar 17, 2008 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
by MileHighKCfan on Mar 17, 2008 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It angers me
by eboston on Mar 17, 2008 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't this clear by now?
by NYRoyal on Mar 17, 2008 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that
Anwyay, the right thing to do for the team isn't always what the right thing to do for the player is. Our cuurent team roster does not have space for a Sweeney. I'll root for him, think about what could have been, but I'm not going to lose sleep over the fact that he's not a Royal anymore. You can't live in the past, on potential, or on sentiments in a results oriented business.
by KC Chris on Mar 17, 2008 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thankfully, this was the best move for all parties
by NYRoyal on Mar 17, 2008 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what's the word on yabuta?
by 390 on Mar 17, 2008 3:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Vulnerable to what?
by NYRoyal on Mar 17, 2008 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
RoyalsNation's assessment (live from surprise pt2)
"Maybe McClure is helping him work on a pitch, but quite simply, he looked incredibly vulnerable and got absolutely and positively shelled."
He's a lock to make the team because of his contract, which makes that assessment especially scary.
by 390 on Mar 18, 2008 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Star article
That leaves either 2 or 3 spots, depending on whether Hillman goes with an 11 or 12 man staff.
What was surprising to me, was Peralta was not among the "locks" (he was sorta a "near lock").
Kinda surprising; I could argue that Peralta was no worse than our 3rd best releiver last season (behind Soria and Riske).
Peralta does have an option left - but I think the Royals are close to getting to the point where that is not the consideration it once was. I think they may finally be willing to take the best pitcher north, roster implications be damned. Obviously, if Peralta starts in Omaha, I'm all wet with this thought.
by loyal2s dad on Mar 17, 2008 5:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think you're right
by NYRoyal on Mar 17, 2008 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
STSAM
Spring training stats are meaningless. It's the single most important thing to keep in mind every March.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7247
by NYRoyal on Mar 18, 2008 9:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Semi-Pro plagiarized Clem Shepherd
by marbotty on Mar 19, 2008 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
don't take it seriously
by buddyball on Mar 18, 2008 9:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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