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Spring Training Impressions

As NYRoyal pointed out earlier this month, Spring Training statistics, not unlike most stories you read about teams having a new attitude or players showing up in great shape, are mostly meaningless. In fact, a few weeks of regular season stats aren't worth all that much either, for players or for teams. In this decade, we've seen numerous cases of teams looking thoroughly mediocre through 60 games, or 100, or even 120 games, then suddenly something clicks, and a .700 team breaks out. And while this doesn't seem directly tied to the Wild Card itself, in the Wild Card Era, it has become much more difficult to say much of anything definite about a team's chances until rather late in the game. With all that said, lets have a looksie at the Spring Training numbers, to see if anything extreme or even interesting jumps out.

Like Pam, we share our impressions. (But we wouldn't call ourselves an Impressionist just yet!)

Good

  • The Royals have thirteen players hitting over .300, and four over .400, including Mike Aviles. Aviles, who turned 27 on the 13th, is hitting .423/.464/.538 in fairly regular action. Looking at his minor league profile, this is a standard Aviles stretch, except he's hitting .423 instead of .270.  He doesn't walk much, although he has shown some interesting power potential recently in Omaha, where he hit 17 homers and slugged .462 last season. I'm not clamoring for him to make the team or anything, but in light of the Grudzielanek situation, Aviles is a nice organizational depth guy.
  • Extend everything above about Mike Aviles to Alberto Callaspo, only with an added caveat that he's actually going to make the 25 man roster out of camp. Callaspo is hitting .359/.405/.564 this Spring. Mostly meaningless and non-indicative of anything? Yes. But still nice. Dayton's decision to extend Grudz looks more and more pointless with each passing hour, but at least he took the step this winter of bringing Callaspo. No word on how Callaspo's domestic abuse performance has been this Spring however.
  • I suppose its just something we take for granted at this point, but Billy Butler has had no trouble with Cactus League pitching, posting a .378/.452/.676 line. Remember, he's still only 21 years old, nearly a full five years younger than another "young" player like Mark Teahen. While Dayton Moore has essentially turned over the entire pitching staff, the core of the lineup remains an expression of the Baird regime. (Well, Moore has brought in Ross Gload, Joey Gathright and Ryan Shealy, but I like to pretend those moves never happened.)
  • You can't mention Billy without bringing up Alex Gordon, and like his sidekick, Gordon has enjoyed a nice March thus far. In addition to a .355/.487/.452 line, there exists the slightest evidence that some of the big problems we saw last year (uneven plate coverage and discipline)  might be getting fixed: Gordon's only struck out four times, against seven walks, and is tied with Mark Teahen for second on the team in that category.
  • The team leader in walks is David DeJesus, with eight. While it was encouraging to see the Royals stressing OBP to David earlier this month, it also seemed slightly odd, given that he's actually been solid in that category for years now. If anything, it appears that the Brain Trust has reconnected OBP with their old-school vision of a "leadoff man", but still haven't quite extended that approach to the rest of the lineup. Progress I suppose, although it would be better if we could also untie ourselves from notions like Ross Gload as a regular, top of the lineup player.
  • Justin Huber hasn't found regular playing time this spring, and through Sunday only had 18 plate appearances in Surprise. Still, he's hit .400/.474/.800 in those scattered chances, which is certainly a nice thing. Sadly, Huber's closer to the Mario Lisson side of the roster than the happier one. Nevertheless, considering that he's also struggled afield, it's a good thing he's made use of his opportunities to rake. While there remains some possibility he might briefly make the team as a Guillen replacement during Jose's steroids suspension, the more likely byproduct of his nice Spring is that he gets some more attractive minor league offers than he would have otherwise.
  • Considering the way that Arizona, along with other Spring Training factors, tends to inflate the offensive numbers, it's a bit more difficult to evaluate the team's hurlers, at least from afar. Not helping matters is that none of the starters are pitching in anything like their normal usage patterns, which can lead to some odd lines. That being said, above all else what stands out to me is Gil Meche's early performance, especially his nine strikeouts in ten innings pitched. Better yet, he's only walked two men. I've always felt that Meche lacked a consistent ability to miss bats, limiting his ceiling. Last season, while his strikeout numbers stayed comparable, he cut down on walks, which made all the difference. So far, the continuance of that control trend is reflected in the very limited data we've also seen, as well as a possible uptick in Ks. Keep your fingers crossed.
  • In just eight innings, Joakim Soria has picked up where he left off last season, at least in terms of controling the plate. He's walked just one, while striking out nine.
  • Beyond that, its hard to find too many statistically appealing performances from the pitching staff. Hideo Nomo has managed to strike out a batter per inning, but because he's allowed so many hits (17) its not as if he's actually striking out every third guy.
Bad
  • Its been strange to follow Angel Berroa this Spring. He's still Angel, hitting .263/.333/.263 in a scant 19 PAs, but now we know he can't hurt us anymore. Sure, he's the 64th Greatest Royal of All Time, but by the end of his stint as a regular player, he was so bad that he's actually made Tony Pena Jr. seem good.
  • This is fairly petty of me, but Ross Gload is walkless through 39 trips to the plate this Spring. Yea, he's hitting .308/.308/.513, and yes its Spring and time for him to be proverbialy "working things out" etc.. Nevertheless, that's the problem with Gload in a nutshell. Making an out 69% of the time hurts the lineup.
  •  Oddly enough, Shane Costa hasn't seen much playing time this Spring, but he also hasn't hit much in the odd times he's stepped to the plate either, posting a .235/.235/.300. At last check, the Royals still owned an option regarding Costa - was there anything better than the "Shane Costa is out of options!" scare across the Royals blogosphere this winter? - but above all else its interesting to see Costa's playing time eaten into by non-starters like Huber and Maier.
  • Not that we were expecting better, but Tony Pena Jr. hasn't shown much development thus far, hitting .273/.314/.333 in 34 PAs. Since the Royals seem unmoved by his lack of patience and inspired by Hillman's dream of a Bunter's Paradise, I say we just have Pena bunt every time up. Runners on or not, I honestly think it would be just as effective. Especially if every tenth time or so he tried to chope the ball over the thirdbaseman's head, just to keep things interesting. (Simmons voice) Tell me why this wouldn't be brilliant?
  • As for the pitchers, even a true pessimist like me has a difficult time finding much fault in whats transpired. Aside from a handful of minor league types who haven't pitched much, and Meche and Soria, just about no one has a nice shiny ERA or anything like that to point to. Nevertheless, its Arizona and we're still in weird usage mode. One ugly spot has been a familiar one, however. In just over eight innings, our old pal Jorge de la Rosa has been his typical self, allowing a ton of baserunners en route to an ERA over 7.00. JDLR has thrown 274 innings at the Big League level, and owns a career ERA of 5.85. But his stuff, ohh his stuff. How fantastic it is! He's got "the good face" too.            

Today's Game Thread will be posted in the diaries.-RR

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Nomo
I'm not too worried or upset about the talk of Nomo having a real shot at making the team...not yet.  I still think it is just talk.  But if he makes the team, forcing Royals to trade Nunez, I'm going to be pissed.  And I'll be a little upset if Nomo makes the team, forcing the Royals to trade/waive/release De La Rosa.  DLR could become a decent lefty reliever.  Nomo has maybe one decent year as a reliever left in him.  For this roster spot, a possibly good future is worth more than a possibly good present.
I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Mar 17, 2008 11:21 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

yea, as much as a rip him
I really think JDLR could be interesting as a bullpen guy.

by royalsreview on Mar 17, 2008 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good wrap up of meaningless stats
Not really sure I get what the clamor on some other Royals boards over Nomo is. He stinks. He's been out of baseball for two seasons. I could kind of understand if he was throwing in the mid 90s and had dominating spring training numbers, but his numbers don't look that great and from what I hear he ain't breakin' 87 with that "fast" ball.

I think Joey Gathright already bunts every time up, so that kinda lessens the surprise of having TPJ bunt every time up.

I think time is just about up on DLR. He could probably serve as a decent LOOGY someday, but the Royals have enough of those. If they can't find anyone that wants to trade them a bag of baseballs for him, my guess is he'll find himself on the waiver wire. I think Tomko and Bale have won the last two rotation spots, and carrying Gobble, Mahay AND de la Rosa seems a bit excessive, not to mention that Neal Musser has dominated AAA.

My last thought is that I want to thank everyone at Royals Review for helping me through the tough "Shane Costa is out of options" scare of 2007. It was nearly as terrifying as the "OMG Chris Lubanski is exposed to the Rule 5 Draft" scare and the "Why the hell did Dayton sign Ross Gload to a two year contract" fit of rage of 2007. Many thanks.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 17, 2008 11:23 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Nomo
Not really sure I get what the clamor on some other Royals boards over Nomo is.

It's a bad case of name-itis.  He's a recognizable name and that name evokes memories of past greatness.  It is similar to the clamor for signing Colon.  The fact that a guy won an award years ago doesn't necessarily mean he's even decent now.  And both of those pitchers are done.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Mar 17, 2008 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Basically, TPJ is the pitcher
It's like we have a National League lineup and he is the pitcher. He'll be sacraficing a lot. Low Batting Average. Little to no differene in OBP. I agree with RoyalsRetro that JDLR is not making this team. We've got enough leftys in the bullpen and he seems to be the odd man out. I still think we could get something useful for him. And lastly, are we really going to get stuck with Ross Gload as our starting first baseman? The guy is a fine role player, but not an everyday guy. Especially in a position that's supposed to be a source of power.

by royaldaddy on Mar 17, 2008 12:34 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Gload
are we really going to get stuck with Ross Gload as our starting first baseman

We knew going into spring training that Butler was going to play either 1B or DH (and probably some of both) with Gload and Shealy (if he makes the team) playing the other position.  There were no 1B/DH's in the last free agent class.  There simply wasn't one available (except for Bonds), so we have to use that open position on a role player and an iffy player we hope develops.  That happens in rebuilding years.  

The good news is that Gload is decent and, unfortunately, he's probably better than both Shealy and Huber.  The better news is that I think this problem will be solved next offseason with a free agent signing or trade which will fill that hole.  Until then, we'll get by.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Mar 17, 2008 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What do we have in Shealy?
Gload was definitely better than Shealy last year.  But if Shealy can continue his good ST (I know...), which is pretty much in line with what we thought we were getting when we made that trade, then it's a lot tougher comparison going forward.

Huber's a butcher in the field (the only thing he's managed to catch is the flu!).  I'm holding out hope for him to be a DH... somewhere else.

by KC Chris on Mar 17, 2008 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gload's a nice player
But he's a luxury for a team like the Royals who need to maximize every roster spot to keep young talent. And he shouldn't be playing every day. So I really don't think there should be a place for him. But there is. And its in the #3 spot in the lineup possibly. Yikes.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 17, 2008 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I believe
I read that Costa has been sent down to the minors already.
Success is counted sweetest by those who ne'er succeed. - Emily Dickinson

by buddyball on Mar 17, 2008 12:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Thank God For
That fourth option year.
I'm not getting older....oh, wait, yes I am....and slower.... and weaker. God, this is great!

by philofthenorth on Mar 17, 2008 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

(begin sarcasm) Seriously!
I mean, if we would have had to make a decision on Costa this year... who knows how Dayton would have screwed that up!  (end sarcasm)

Costa is a nice player who may or may not (more likely) ever make it as a 4th OFer.  I sort of feel bad for those kind of players because you know they are trying as hard as they can, but will never be as good as some jerkoff that half-hustles most of the time.  Then again, I want a winning team and how refreshing is it that we're getting to the point where the Shane Costas do not get starts in CF and lead off or hit cleanup?  Anyway, thanks Shane for filling out the roster for a couple of frustrating years.

by KC Chris on Mar 17, 2008 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Between Costa and Huber
Costa has been the much better hitter in AAA.

Costa:  328/394/533
Huber:  278/354/501

Costa has additional value as someone who can actually play a few defensive positions and hit left-handed.  Going forward, Costa is the better bet to squeeze out some sort of a major league career.

by Gopherballs on Mar 17, 2008 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree
but then again, I also don't think Costa is going to eek out any kind of MLB career.  Costa is the kind of player I've always been drawn to for who knows what reason... sort of like Fan Favorite Aaron Guiel.  I root for those guys because they just obviously didn't get a shot (secret code for "not good enough") but they're giving it the ol' college try.  

Huber's on this path too, but he legitimately can say he didn't ge a shot.  How frustrating would it be for a young guy to come up and ride the pine on a 100 loss team?  Wouldn't you be thinking to yourself, "Man, none of these clowns can hit, and they don't even think I'm good enough for a September pinch hit..."?  

Anyway, like I've said a couple of times, I'm glad we get to dissect guys like Huber and Costa now, and it's not because we're trying to justify their playing time over some other hack.

by KC Chris on Mar 17, 2008 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Huber
Huber's problem is that after a great 2005, he really did nothing more to earn a shot.  Once adjusted for league (the very hitter friendly PCL) and position (1B/DH, the easiest positions to fill), Huber's performance in 2006 and 2007 was lackluster.  There just is not much demand for right-handed 1B/DH-types with decent but not great hitting skills.  

The odds are certainly less than 50/50, but Costa has the skills to find work as a 4th or 5th OF on an NL team.  He hits left-handed, has shown that he can make contact and drive the ball in the minors, provides good defense in the OF corners, and can play a few innings in CF without embarassing himself.  After bombing in the majors, it might take an injury or a different bit of luck to get another shot, but Costa could carve out a Guiel-like career (300+ G, 900+ AB).

And, yes, it is quite nice we are talking about these guys as occupying only the fringes of the roster.

by Gopherballs on Mar 17, 2008 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Are We Sure
They're going to carry 12 pitchers?

1B Gload/Shealy
2b Gritz
3B Gordon
SS TPJ
C  Buck
LF Teahen
CF DDJ
RF Guillen

Bench: Gload/Shealy, Callaspo, Germy, Olivo, Gator
Someone has to go if they're keeping 12 pitchers.

I'm not getting older....oh, wait, yes I am....and slower.... and weaker. God, this is great!

by philofthenorth on Mar 17, 2008 1:51 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Guillen's suspension
opens one roster spot, so even with Butler, that group can at least start the year.

by Gopherballs on Mar 17, 2008 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I Forgot To
Put the DH in the mix, but it was there in my head.
I'm not getting older....oh, wait, yes I am....and slower.... and weaker. God, this is great!

by philofthenorth on Mar 17, 2008 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Saw this over at MLBTR
"Mike Sweeney's success and good health could mean Dan Johnson is on his way out of Oakland."

It was good for a chuckle.  I realize you all have hashed out the Sweeney ordeal (and for the record, I'm glad he's gone), but ho bad would that suck he goes over there and destroys.  Great for him, but c'mon, can we get a break?!?!?!

 

by KC Chris on Mar 17, 2008 2:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Can we get a break?
Just wait til the season starts. Oakland will get rid of Johnson in favor of Sweeney and then we will get a break....Sweeney's back will break.

by MileHighKCfan on Mar 17, 2008 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know
I was asking how bad would it be if he went on to be healthy and destroy... sorry for the confusion.

by KC Chris on Mar 17, 2008 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah
I know what you were getting at, I just don't think that it is a possibility.

by MileHighKCfan on Mar 17, 2008 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It angers me
like we couldn't have given Sweeney a Minor League contract?!? How would that have hurt the Royals in anyway. If he out performed other guys and won a spot great, if he was sent to Omaha that's fine also. Instead a lifetime Royal is going to finish his career elsewhere. And I hate those stupid one day contracts, "so I can retire as a member of this team", organizations aren't willing to do the right thing anymore. And on top of all that he's with the A's. The team that takes all of our players. I think they should have given us Haren just to try and make up for all the crap deals throughout the years.
Sign Alex Gordon to a life time contract!!!

by eboston on Mar 17, 2008 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sometimes
you have to cut off your leg so the gang green doesn't get you...

by KC Chris on Mar 17, 2008 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Isn't this clear by now?
Sweeney wanted to sign a contract with a team where he had a shot to make the 25-man roster.  He knew that he had no shot at making the Royals 25-man roster.  Moore made that clear to him in a very diplomatic way.  Sweeney didn't want a minor league deal as a gold watch thanks-for-the-memories present.  He wants to play major league ball, period.  So he went to one of the very few teams where he might have a chance to do that.
I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Mar 17, 2008 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that
was the nice way to say it.  Maybe I shouldn't have equated Sweeney to gang green... :)  And to be honest, I don't think he was anything like gang green.  There did seem to be a prevlant "Ah, shucks, I struck out.  Let's get 'em next time" attitude about the last couple of years.  But maybe that was because Sweeney was the most recognizable player.  Maybe Muser was on to something...

Anwyay, the right thing to do for the team isn't always what the right thing to do for the player is.  Our cuurent team roster does not have space for a Sweeney.  I'll root for him, think about what could have been, but I'm not going to lose sleep over the fact that he's not a Royal anymore.  You can't live in the past, on potential, or on sentiments in a results oriented business.  

by KC Chris on Mar 17, 2008 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thankfully, this was the best move for all parties
The Royals had no room for him on their roster, and the A's might.  So he needed to go to Oakland.  I wish him well.  If the Royals had offered him a minor league deal, I don't think he would have taken it because he knew he didn't have a shot to make the team and there was no reason that they should have given him one.  Shealy and Huber could be a part of this team's future.  Gload will at least be a part of the Royals near future.  Sweeney has, at most, one or two partial seasons full of diminishing hitting skills and chronic injuries.  It was time to part ways.
I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Mar 17, 2008 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

what's the word on yabuta?
still looking 'vulnerable'?

by 390 on Mar 17, 2008 3:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Vulnerable to what?
His spring stats aren't too good, but he's a lock to make the team.  He's still adjusting to a new ball and new batters.  I think he'll be fine.
I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Mar 17, 2008 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

RoyalsNation's assessment (live from surprise pt2)
"Yaz Yabuta looks nowhere near Major League ready."

"Maybe McClure is helping him work on a pitch, but quite simply, he looked incredibly vulnerable and got absolutely and positively shelled."

He's a lock to make the team because of his contract, which makes that assessment especially scary.

by 390 on Mar 18, 2008 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Star article
lists Soria, Mahay, Gobble, and Yabuta as locks for the bullpen.

That leaves either 2 or 3 spots, depending on whether Hillman goes with an 11 or 12 man staff.

What was surprising to me, was Peralta was not among the "locks" (he was sorta a "near lock").

Kinda surprising; I could argue that Peralta was no worse than our 3rd best releiver last season (behind Soria and Riske).

Peralta does have an option left - but I think the Royals are close to getting to the point where that is not the consideration it once was. I think they may finally be willing to take the best pitcher north, roster implications be damned. Obviously, if Peralta starts in Omaha, I'm all wet with this thought.

by loyal2s dad on Mar 17, 2008 5:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think you're right
Peralta will be with the big club unless something goes horribly wrong for him very quickly.  Teams are usually very conservative with their "locks" and "guarantees" for who is going to make the team, particularly in mid-March.  One of the many reasons is that this tells potential trade partners (for DLR or Nunez) that we have enough roster flexibility that we don't have to give away these guys that are out of options.  
I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Mar 17, 2008 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

STSAM
Joe Sheehan at BP plagiarized the hell out of me!  (j/k)

Spring training stats are meaningless. It's the single most important thing to keep in mind every March.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7247

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Mar 18, 2008 9:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Semi-Pro plagiarized Clem Shepherd
or was Will Farrell always into bear wrestling?
This space intentionally left blank.

by marbotty on Mar 19, 2008 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

don't take it seriously
it is only spring training, after all
Success is counted sweetest by those who ne'er succeed. - Emily Dickinson

by buddyball on Mar 18, 2008 9:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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