Brad Salmon to the Kansas City Royals

I'm assuming

he will serve as organizational depth in Omaha. Can't imagine him beating out enough of our current bullpen candidates to make the 25 man roster.

by loyal2s dad on Mar 19, 2008 6:08 PM EDT reply actions

Organizational filler for the time being. Looks like he struggled with control throughout the minors but kept a pretty decent K rate. The K rate translated well to his big league experience last year which is promising, but I think what you see is what you get most likely. In other words, I don't see him "breaking out" given his age and his track record.

by MileHighKCfan on Mar 19, 2008 6:46 PM EDT reply actions

Useful Middle Reliever

It looks like he is a 28-year-old RHP who throws two primary pitches, a 93 MPH fastball and a slider. It also appears that he is out of options.

He could be useful in middle relief. He gets strikeouts but with some walks.

2007 AAA: 43 IP, 8.37 K/9, 3.56 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.56 ERA, 3.78 FIP

2007 NL: 24 IP, 8.25 K/9, 3.75 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.13 ERA, 4.37 FIP

He did not show an extreme platoon split in the minors.

As for an off the cuff comp, he might be somewhere between a harder-throwing version of Joel Peralta and a right-handed John Bale.

If Soria, Yabuta, Mahay, and Gobble are "locks," and Peralta is a near lock, I would slot Salmon behind Nunez (and ahead of de la Rosa and Davies) for the one or two remaining bullpen slots.

by Gopherballs on Mar 19, 2008 6:53 PM EDT reply actions

I don't think he's on the 40 man

Omaha!

by doublestix on Mar 19, 2008 6:57 PM EDT reply actions

Yup

The Reds signed him in offseason to a minor league deal, so he can go directly to Omaha. Depending on how the end of the major league staff shakes out, he might be the first reliever in line for a callup.

by Gopherballs on Mar 19, 2008 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions

First in line for a call up? Maybe

But he has very little upside potential, while De La Rosa and Davies have considerably more, particularly as relievers. Calling up this 28 year old scrub over DLR or Davies would make little sense.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Mar 19, 2008 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Except Salmon actually gets hitters out

DLR is useless against right-handed hitters, and unless Jimmy Gobble is traded, there is no need for a second LOOGY. Davies cannot find the strike zone, and until he does so, should remain exiled in the PCL. The Royals are actually trying to win now, so they should stop wasting major league innings on pitchers ill-equipped to get major league hitters out.

by Gopherballs on Mar 20, 2008 1:38 AM EDT up reply actions

Salmon is a sub-mediocre pitcher with no upside

While they are trying to win more games, some spots on the roster are clearly being used to develop young players. Moore and Hillman know that this is not a contending team. DLR and Davies have talent which shouldn't just be given up on. If roster spots become available for them, there's no logical argument for this team to give up on them this year.

If DLR can continue to get lefties out in a relief role (and there's no reason to believe that he can't), then he could be decent trade bait in July for some team looking for a young, talented, lefty reliever. And Davies as about as much success finding the strike zone as Salmon. Salmon has major control problems and gives up a lot of walks. Davies is probably nearly as good as Sanford right now and he's 4 years younger. Davies and DLR have some upside potential. Salmon has nearly none. It wouldn't really make any sense to put him on the 25-man roster over DLR or Davies.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Mar 20, 2008 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Salmon has better K, BB, and HR rates

than your boys Davies or de la Rosa. Davies' control is demonstrably worse than Salmon -- Davies BB/9 rate is almost 5.0 (4.77), while Salmon's rate is a full walk better at 3.75. Salmon also gets more Ks, and has generally maintained 2:1 K:BB ratio. Davies has no business on a major league staff until he figures out some control, and he can do that in Omaha.

DLR's "upside potential" at this point is a LOOGY, which is on par with backup catchers in terms of value. The Royals would get the same Grade C prospect for him now as they would at the trading deadline, so carrying him over someone who can actually help the team is pointless.

by Gopherballs on Mar 20, 2008 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Upside potential

It is pretty clear that Davies has more upside potential than Salmon who has likely topped out at 28. It is your opinion that DLR's upside is merely that of a LOOGY. Many disagree. And it is silly to say that he would get the same prospect in trade now that he would if he proved himself to be an effective LOOGY and was traded in July. Right now he's out of options and there might not be room on the roster for him, so every team is going to see the Royals as a motivated seller. Such would not be the case if he were on the team in July. Also a good half season of pitching would push his value up to a team in contention who would be a motivated buyer.

Again, there's absolutely no reason to play the sub-mediocre journeyman over two pitchers with more upside potential and better potential trade value.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Mar 20, 2008 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions

No, it is silly

Davies can safely work on his "upside potential" in Omaha. If the 27-year-old DLR makes the team and with Gobble ahead of him, he is not going to pitch only to lefties, and when he faces righties, he is going to have the same problems as he had in the rotation. Three more months of the same old DLR is not going to change his nominal trade value.

by Gopherballs on Mar 20, 2008 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Except

Davies can safely work on his "upside potential" in Omaha.

This is Davies last option year. So this is the year the Royals need to figure out once and for all if he can be a decent major league pitcher. Sure, he should go to Omaha at least for a while, but he needs to get more than a few major league innings this year so the Royals can see if he's improved. A good AAA season wouldn't tell them much about him.

If the 27-year-old DLR makes the team and with Gobble ahead of him, he is not going to pitch only to lefties

Actually, the abundance of lefties in the Royals bullpen makes it more likely that he'd face mostly lefties. When you have a good mix of lefties in the pen (with DLR, the Royals pen would likely be 4 RHP and 3 LHP), you have the luxury of righties mostly facing righties and lefties mostly facing lefties.

and when he faces righties, he is going to have the same problems as he had in the rotation.

This presupposes that DLR isn't going to improve any. That is certainly possible. But there are other possibilitie as well. The Royals aren't so awash in MLB-ready pitching talent that they should just cast aside DLR's talent and upside. Certainly not so we can get innings from a minor league journeyman, sub-mediocre suck like Salmon.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Mar 20, 2008 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions

No

A major league bullpen cannot use four or five pitchers every night playing the righty-lefty matchup game without burning itself out. If DLR makes the team as a reliever, he will pitch frequently in long relief, which means facing lots of righties.

You can call Salmon all the increasingly derogatory names all you want, but it does not change his profile as a potentially useful middle reliever. Every projection system has Salmon beating DLR and Davies by a considerable margin. But I suppose those projections do not factor in analysis that a pitcher is a sub-sub mediocre sucky suck.

by Gopherballs on Mar 20, 2008 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions

No?

A major league bullpen cannot use four or five pitchers every night playing the righty-lefty matchup game without burning itself out.

You don't need to use 4-5 pitchers every night in order to have lefties primarily face lefties and righties primarily face righties.

If DLR makes the team as a reliever, he will pitch frequently in long relief, which means facing lots of righties. *

That might be true; then again, it might not. I don't think Hillman has said how he would use DLR in the bullpen. I do know that he'd face more lefties in the bullpen than he did as a starter. And, btw, how he has performed against RH batters in the past is not necessarily how he'll perform against them in the future. You know, young players often improve.

*You can call Salmon all the increasingly derogatory names all you want, but it does not change his profile as a potentially useful middle reliever.

The "names" I called him were an accurate description of his career. And yes, he is a potentially useful 7th reliever in the bullpen. But he has virtually no upside potential.

What you see is what you got. Every projection system has Salmon beating DLR and Davies by a considerable margin.

Yet again, I will repeat that DLR and Davies need to pitch over Salmon's sub-mediocrity because they have the potential to become better than they have been. Salmon does not. It's called developing talent, and it's important. I'm done.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Mar 20, 2008 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I

I think it's a little unfair to say that Salmon does not have any room for improvement. I mean, Meche improved last year and he's 2 years older than Salmon. Maybe Bobby Mac can "fix" this kid too. He must have something that our scouts saw, and I'm going to defer to the guys that targeted Meche, Banny, etc... and guys like Cortes, Pimental, etc... as throw-ins on trades.

Now, if you read down the page a little, you'll see that I'm not happy about the Tomko signing. Obviously, the same scouts as above said we should sign Tomko. So they clearly saw something in him (and he could turn out just fine). Since I'm not privy to the scouting reports, I'm going to guess that the scouts said that "he has 3 plus pitches, regained command of his sinking fastball, blah, blah, blah..." but they didn't say, "put him on the 25-man, now." That's a call Moore had to make to sign him. I would guess that since we couldn't get him on a minor league contract that there were other interested parties. In any case, we're now stuck with Tomko and Salmon will start the year in AAA and a guy like DLR is probably going to get cut. Davies will be in AAA, and hopefully Nunez is still with the club and in the pen.

by KC Chris on Mar 20, 2008 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions

With Salmon, you forgot to take

into consideration "that the Royals front office under Dayton Moore has done a good job of evaluating and acquiring pitchers."

by Gopherballs on Mar 20, 2008 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Zing!

That's a nice attempt at a zinger. I appreciate the effort. Of course, when all three pitchers have been evaluated and acquired by the Royals, that factor is rendered moot when comparing them.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Mar 20, 2008 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Nice strawman

but that factor is not moot when just evaluating Salmon. So why exactly do you not take into considersation "that the Royals front office under Dayton Moore has done a good job of evaluating and acquiring pitchers" when evaluating Salmon as sub-mediocre suck?

by Gopherballs on Mar 20, 2008 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Here we go

So why exactly do you not take into considersation "that the Royals front office under Dayton Moore has done a good job of evaluating and acquiring pitchers" when evaluating Salmon as sub-mediocre suck?

I do take it into consideration. However, it doesn't exacty elevate him over Davies and DLR when all three of them were evaluated and acquired by Dayton Moore and his scouts.

I certainly don't think that all pitchers that Moore acquires will be good. But it is a factor. Another factor is age, and Salmon is older than both DLR and Davies, with Salmon being at essentially the peak of the developmental curve. He's not at an age when you should expect him to improve much. Another factor is the opinion of scouts. You claim to value scouting analysis over stats, and the scouts love DLR and Davies. I've never read any glowing reports about Salmon or his stuff. There you go.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Mar 20, 2008 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Salmon is one year older than DLR

And a scouting report from three years ago that either player could have plus stuff if he ever learned to control and command his pitches does not mean much when a current scouting report says the same thing. No scouts "love" either one anymore because their development stalled long ago.

by Gopherballs on Mar 20, 2008 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions

I hope Salmon is good

I hope he is or soon becomes a decent 6th or 7th man out of the bullpen. He may even be more likely to be that good than De La Rosa or Davies. But I like their talent and see a benefit in continuing to develop them and see how much they can improve. They may come to nothing. I'd like to give them a chance to realize some upside. We'll see what happens.

I probably disagree with you.

by Scott McKinney on Mar 20, 2008 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm Wondering Who

The PTBNL will be.

I'm not getting older....oh, wait, yes I am....and slower.... and weaker. God, this is great!

by philofthenorth on Mar 19, 2008 8:14 PM EDT reply actions

huber

by Freneau on Mar 19, 2008 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd rather it was B-error-a

Success is counted sweetest by those who ne'er succeed. - Emily Dickinson

by buddyball on Mar 19, 2008 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions

We're starting a tradition of meaningless trades

with Cincinnati. Last year it was Jeff Keppinger for PTBNL (Russ Haltiwanger). A few years ago we dumped Jeff Austin and Brian Shackelford for Alan Moye and some other nobody

"I'm tired of all these stupid a$$ questions every day. Why the f**k would I hit Brett for Miller?" The rest is history.

by DC Royal on Mar 19, 2008 10:59 PM EDT reply actions

Don't forget about

Larue!

by royaldaddy on Mar 20, 2008 1:49 AM EDT up reply actions

was it Damaso Espino?

This space intentionally left blank.

by marbotty on Mar 20, 2008 2:24 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't know how high I am on him.

He got beat out by Affeldt for a spot in the Reds pen. But it can not hurt for depth in Omaha. I know there will be some depth in Omaha in the SP department but what about in RP. Does anyone know about the RP in Omaha; is there many you feel good about calling up if and when a injury happens?

by TXroyal on Mar 20, 2008 5:00 AM EDT reply actions

He got beat out by Affeldt

Probably the same way Hochevar is going to get "beat out" of the rotation by Tomko...

by KC Chris on Mar 20, 2008 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't really konw this

it is just an observation on their respective contracts and what not at the time the transaction took place.

by KC Chris on Mar 20, 2008 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions

Its not even close to the same thing.

Hochevar if he gets beat out can be sent back to the minors. Salmon could not. Also Salmon got beat out by a pitcher that could not get a hitter out as a starter and was force into the pen. Hoch still has options Salmon does not, I think that is correct I may be wrong.

by TXroyal on Mar 20, 2008 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions

I was

referring to Tomko and Affeldt having MLB contracts. Salmon didn't really get outpitched by Affeldt, but Affeldt had the big league contract so Salmon loses out. Same with Hoch and Tomko, only Hoch goes to AAA instead of getting traded. I'm thinking that Tomko's arm would basically have to fall off for Hoch to get the starts over him. I could be wrong.

As far as Affeldt not getting hitters out as a starter... is that any different than Tomko?

by KC Chris on Mar 20, 2008 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions

I guess I miss understood.

Sorry my bad. I agree Tomko is almost as bad as Affeldt this spring. Hopefully Tomko is crushed today and we will not see him for more then 3 outs at a time from here on out I think he could do well in that situation.

by TXroyal on Mar 20, 2008 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree

I don't particularly want him to get crushed, but if that helps Hillman and Moore make a decision to move him to the pen, then so be it. The rearview mirror look on signing Tomko is really pretty ugly. Did we really not have anybody better than a guy who never had a ton of success, in a weaker league, in a hitter's park, etc...? If keeping Tomko costs us a guy like Nunez, I'm going to be pissed.

Trading for a guy like Salmon is exactly what we should have done; not signed Tomko. If Salmon pans out, we add him to the 25-man and then make a decision on one of the younger guys. If he doesn't, he's on a minor league contract and we stash him until we need him. On the other hand, Tomko is occupying a valuable 25-man roster spot without having to earn it. That, in conjunction with his history, makes me more than a little biased against him, regardless of how he pitches. Unfair? Yes. But I'm entitled to unfairly judge him as a paying member of the loyal, Royal community.

Anyway, are we really having this long of a diary about Brad Salmon?!?!?! :) Enjoy some BB tonight! KU held up their end of the deal. So now, GO CATS!

Go Royals!

by KC Chris on Mar 20, 2008 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Bullpen in Omaha continues to get

stronger with the addition of Salmon. Looks like Musser, Braun, Salmon, Duckworth, Tsao, Hoelscher and Giron. Omaha could also have Matt Peterson, Ramon Colon, Jarod Plummer or John Foster. Stockpiling arms for the long major league season. Salmon is another callup when an injury occurs or someone hits a slump in KC.

by daveyork on Mar 20, 2008 9:53 AM EDT reply actions

Salmon trade

Sounds kinda fishy to me. I think he's going to be swimming upstream to gain a roster spot, although perhaps this will spawn more competition in the pen.

One man with courage makes a majority - Andrew Jackson

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Mar 20, 2008 10:15 AM EDT reply actions

Nice work.

I was expecting a canned response.

by KC Chris on Mar 20, 2008 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Top comps

According to BBRef:

Steve Trout
Bobby Sturgeon
Bill Fischer
Art Herring
Jess Pike

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 20, 2008 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Comps

Ah, if only he could play for the Marlins...

One man with courage makes a majority - Andrew Jackson

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Mar 20, 2008 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions

I like it

Provides better depth. His upside is limited, but there's a small chance he could turn into a useful reliever at the big leagues. At the very worst, he provides organizational filler at Omaha.

I have to imagine the PTBNL is some minor leaguer they don't have room for when they set minor league rosters.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 20, 2008 11:25 AM EDT reply actions

Can't wait for the headline

Indians Smoke Salmon

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 20, 2008 4:23 PM EDT reply actions

According to Rotoworld

Blake Johnson is likely to be the PTBNL

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 21, 2008 10:19 AM EDT reply actions

What does Rotoworld know?!?!?

Just kidding. So if we send Johnson over, that an A+ 23 year old for a AAA/AAAA 28 year old who's out of options.

Comparing their numbers, even at the same stages of their careers, Salmon has better K/BB numbers and has some not terrible MLB time under his belt. I'm not saying Salmon is a world beater, but at this point, he's better than Blake Johnson. Could Blake end up being much better? Of course. Could he blow out his elbow and never pitch again? You bet. I don't think this is a very significant trade, assuming it is Johnson (or really anybody that low in the org) who is the PTBNL, but I think it is a somewhat worthwhile trade. Salmon could be seen as basically insurance for any of the pitchers we lose due to options and what not. Is Salmon as good as Nunez or DLR? I don't know. I'll look at the numbers later.

by KC Chris on Mar 21, 2008 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions

If Salmon really is out of options

I think this would be a really poor trade. Not sure if its anything more than hearsay at this point. I think Salmon is a decent guy to take a flyer on, but he's the kind of guy you pick up off waivers, or trade a crappy organizational filler guy for. You don't trade a 22 year old pitcher who posted a 3.28 ERA in A ball for him.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 21, 2008 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions

Salmon has a minor league contract

so we woudln't have gotten him without the trade, and his lack of options don't come into play unless we call him up. If we call him up, he'll be taking somebody's place who hit the DL. So not a big deal really for roster space.

Now, if Johnson becomes a dominant pitcher, the trade will look bad in 2?-3? years or so. But I sort of doubt it is going to be anymore than a wash. It was a calculated risk that Moore made to get an arm that is closer to useful for the big league team.

by KC Chris on Mar 21, 2008 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions