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Living in the Present

The most anticipated Royals season since 2004 begins, weather permitting, tomorrow afternoon in Detroit. The odd thing is, while almost everyone is excited about 2008, no one seems too hopeful that the Royals can actually compete, just yet. It's an odd dynamic that speaks to some long-term faith in Dayton Moore and the young players on the roster, as well as the extremely low expectations of a beaten down fanbase. This tenuously balanced bit of patient optimism could make the 2008 campaign something like a leisurely pleasure cruise, with random individual performances and patches of good play appearing like spots of scenery -- oh, look, there's a great start by Greinke, oh neat, we swept the Twins this weekend -- or it might evaporate quickly, as the on-field product pales in comparison to the way it appeared in the ballfields of the mind this off-season.

Still, at least on paper, it's remarkable how far the franchise has come. Since 1999 this team has only been able to hit the 70-win plateau twice, 2003's fluky 83 wins, and in 2000, when the Sweeney/Beltran/Dye/Damon/Randa core pounded out enough hits to generate 77 wins. Even last season, so weirdly positive in our memories, only saw the Royals win 69 ballgames, a total lower than all but two other teams in baseball. Nevertheless, the win total doesn't tell the whole story: there's more talent and less dead-weight on this roster than the Royals have had in a decade. Nor, to be quite honest, has it all been Dayton Moore's doing, far from it in fact. Nearly everything good about the lineup is a byproduct of the final years of the Baird regime, and if anything we might be better of if Moore would simply get out of his own way in terms of the position players for another few years. That being said, Moore has completely remade the pitching staff: the only holdovers from the 2005 staff are Greinke, Gobble and Leo Nunez. In the process, a historically bad 2006 staff became solidly mediocre by 2007. For all of the lamentations surrounding the continued existence of Brett Tomko, he's a much better random back of the rotation than the Royals have thrown out there in years prior.

It remains unsettled how all these pieces will fit together. Aside from lower-end performers like Tony Pena Jr. &  Miguel Olivo and boring veteran mediocrities likes Ross Gload, Mark Grudzielanek & Tomko, essentially every key member of this roster remains fundamentally difficult to truly predict. Think about it, from Billy Butler to Mark Teahen to Alex Gordon to Brian Bannister the level of performance in 2008 could reasonably range from All-Star level to league average to something lower. Despite the thousands of words devoted to Bannister this winter, would it really surprise you if he posted an ERA closer to 5.00 than 3.50? Similarly, Billy Butler might very well hit 30 homers, hit .315, and be a total offensive force and a cult hero by season's end. Or, he could struggle, mix good stretches with bad, get on Hillman's bad side for a baserunning blunder or three, and end up slogging through a season of tough love and mental growth. When so many guys fall into the same category, it makes any effort to try to predict the season even more of a folly than it already is.

So regarding the lineup in aggregate, remember, the Royals only scored 706 runs last season, which is really really really bad. Yes, without question, the Royals, could completely explode and score something like 840 runs, that really is possible. And don't get me wrong, I don't want to needlessly dismiss that possibility. On the other hand, there is still a lot of dysfunction dragging down the lineup, and we still don't know how Hillman is going to react, especially after the Royals get shutout back to back games by Cleveland in mid-May and the team has lost six of seven. Then, well, obviously, we've got to shake things up, right?  David DeJesus might get caught stealing twenty times this season, for all we know, and Alex Gordon might by the leading bunter amongst middle of the lineup players in the AL.

 

As for the pitching staff, the Royals allowed 778 runs last season. On the bad side of the ledger, in terms of significant contributors, gone are Odalis Perez, Scott Elarton and JDLR (although he was good for awhile). In terms of guys that were sorta good, the only lost piece is David Riske and I suppose Octavio Dotel. Perez, Elarton and JDLR have essentially been replaced by Greinke, Bale and Tomko, although you need to adjust for the fact that Greinke was around last season as well, and contributed in a different fashion. Overall, thats a good exchange, at least on paper. Tomko is better than Elarton, for example, but how much better? The man's been bouncing from pitcher-friendly-park to pitcher-friendly-park in California for years now, with the added boost that all those inter-division matchups in other, pitcher-friendly-parks, have likely given him. Oh, and he's been in the National League. Finally, we return to the tremendous level of optimism surrounding the Big Three of Meche, Greinke and Bannister. Greinke remains a trendy pick to breakout, and perhaps he does this season. For the sake of argument, let's grant that: he makes 32 starts and posts a 3.00 ERA in 180 innings, occasioning a million non-KC media stories about what he went through two years ago. So what about Meche and Bannister?  Meche posted a  career best 3.67 ERA last season, and generally made Dayton Moore look like the smartest evaluator of talent to ever don a visor. In terms of overall value, he was probably the 10th best pitcher in the AL last season, give or take a few slots. It was also the first time he was better than league average since 2000, when Bill Clinton was still President. So as I said, I believe, on my famously negative radio appearance: is Meche going to be better or worse in 2008? Now, lets turn to the man of the moment, Brian Bannister. Again, he made a gigantic leap forward last season and was an inspiration to us all. (Its odd how a guy who has had such a privileged life has somehow become an everyman/underdog type, but thats a topic for another day.) Banny threw 180 innings last season, between KC and Omaha, a full 100 more than he tossed in 2006. He has a history of injury troubles. He does not throw hard. He does not miss bats. So, same question: he posted a  3.87 ERA last season, in 2008 will he be better or worse?

I'll hang up and listen.

I think the smartest thing to do, strictly, playing the percentages, would be to say that out of Meche and Banny, one will keep improving or staying the course (proving all those Spring Training stories gloriously true for once) while another will fall back a little, or, perhaps, more than a little. You can take this exercise further, and ask the same basic question for the key players in the bully. Gobble posted a 3.02 ERA last year. If the hotness of your son's future wife was on the line, would you take the over or the under for Gobble in 2008? What about Soria's 2.48?

The other issue is this: to win games you have to beat someone else. Well, the Royals play the Tigers and Indians a combined 36 times. How many of those games can the Royals expect to win? Obviously, baseball, at the game-by-game level, is much more random than a sport like football, so nothing is a given here. Still, it is a relevant issue. Worse, the Royals also get a heavy dose of the northeastern Superpowers this season, playing the Yankees 10 times and the Red Sox 7. If you thrown in the five games the Royals also take on the Angels (and don't we just love their gritty, retrograde, batting average driven holiness!) that's 58 games, a full 38% of the schedule that is absolutely brutal. If the Royals go 20-38 (a reasonable, yet random guess) against those five teams, they'd need to go 60-44 against everyone else to get to 80 wins. In the American League, in 2008, the only teams I can look at and definitively say, without hesitation, oh yea, the Royals are better than them, right now, are the Orioles and the loser of the Rangers/Athletics dogfight out West. So it's one thing to, in a context free vacuum, to say, well, the Royals are a 78 win team, or whatever you want to pull out, but it gets harder to feel too good about things when you consider the competition.


So where are we? I'm hard pressed to come up with a team that's legitimately harder to project in the short term, although from the other end of the competition arch the White Sox may rival our Royals. Nevertheless, the conventions of the genre demand a prediction, so I'll happily provide one. In 2008 the Royals will score 770 runs and allow 790, which comes out to about 79-83, a number consistent with what I've been telling people all off-season. That runs allowed number is factoring in a breakout from Greinke and some roster trash being erased from 2007, but small steps backward for a number of other players and increasingly difficult competition.

To return to 2004, the season evoked at the beginning of this post, would perhaps be inappropriate. We know what happened. Our heady days of Believe! were quickly turned into years of disillusionment, as the Royals responded to their first good season in years, by then quickly becoming worse than they'd ever been before. Losing 100 games or more the next three seasons was stunning, which in part explains why there's so much excitement surrounding the Royals now in local quarters, while the rest of the country still thinks we're miserable. No, they don't know the beginning of misery.

The challenge for us, here at Royals Review, is to find a way to live in the present this season. Too much of my life is still about tomorrows, and I don't see any reason why my sporting life should be the same. I want the Royals to make the playoffs this year, I want Alex Gordon and Billy Butler to be fabulous, this year, I want to proudly stand and cheer when DeJesus hits double digits homers for the first time, this year. Unfortunately, many of these things won't happen this year, and, in terms of the team goals, may not happen in 2009, either. Throughout the next 162 games, what will ultimately matter is what direction the team is going in. This core of players may be good enough to take Kansas City back to the World Series, but, they may not be. Our challenge in 2008 will be to try to figure out if 2009 and 2010 are going to be worth waiting for, while at the same time trying to enjoy the game that night.

Finally, those terrible post-2003 seasons were also the founding years of this site, which launched in 2005, just in time for an extended stretch of terrible terrible baseball. In a way, that was good. Like a player gaining valuable experience in low-stakes minor league games, Royals Review was able to get established and get some experience. The readership was small, and the community smaller, but hey, it was a 106 loss Dougie Mientkiewicz led team, so who cared. So now, with so many awesome contributors on board here, its fitting that the new site platform was launched just hours before this Season of Hope begins.

If we beat the Tigers tomorrow, we'll be in first place.

 

2 recs | Comment 47 comments

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Big improvements from a rebuilding team should make fans excited

I don't think that is an odd dynamic at all.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Mar 30, 2008 5:47 PM EDT   0 recs

no, thats not

but no one is really gonna be upset if the royals still finish under .500

maybe we're all just a smart fanbase... not ruined by the NFLication of sports

by royalsreview on Mar 30, 2008 5:51 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Being happy with a win total in the high-70's to low 80's is being very smart

If you look at this team, where it is been and the trajectory that it is on, a win total like that, even with a record below .500 is definitely a big step forward.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Mar 30, 2008 6:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

you have the ability to sound negative as hell

then weirdly positive

and where are the pictures? i need pictures

I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

by LeoBloom on Mar 30, 2008 6:01 PM EDT   0 recs

I know that's why I keep coming here.

The negative-positive thing. Not the pictures thing.

...

Okay, also the pictures.

by mazoboom on Mar 30, 2008 7:29 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

yes, and the updates on freddie mitchell

who is highly relevant to all things royals

by royalsreview on Mar 30, 2008 7:37 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Freddie Mitchell is in that picture?

Oh, there he is. Took me a couple looks to see him.

by mazoboom on Mar 30, 2008 9:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'd feel better...

... about this team competing this season if they were in the national league.

Blown Save

by BlownSave on Mar 30, 2008 6:02 PM EDT   0 recs

I'll feel better

if were not completely out of contention by May!

Let's Go Blues!

by powderbluesfor08 on Mar 30, 2008 6:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

yea, not having a miserable April would be cool

I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

by LeoBloom on Mar 30, 2008 7:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

This season seems very much

like it should be titled "Episode IV - A New Hope"

Let's Go Blues!

by powderbluesfor08 on Mar 30, 2008 6:02 PM EDT   0 recs

Ha

Our cruisers can't repel firepower of that magnitude!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 30, 2008 9:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Living in the past, present and future

If I may paraphrase Charles Dickens:

"I will honor the Royals in my heart, and try to keep it all the year. I will live in the Past, the Present, and the Future. The Spirits of all Three shall strive within me."

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Mar 30, 2008 6:12 PM EDT   0 recs

so who wins the Central?

I am going with Cleveland. i've really started to hate the Tigers.

I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

by LeoBloom on Mar 30, 2008 7:38 PM EDT   0 recs

Detroit

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 30, 2008 9:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Cleveland.

The Hard Way.

The first thing I know about someone in a KC hat is that they're loyal.

by grantfunk on Mar 31, 2008 12:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm Watching Odie

Pitch to the Braves, so I'm pretty much set.

Let's go, boys, to the toppermost of the poppermost!

by philofthenorth on Mar 30, 2008 8:29 PM EDT   0 recs

Two organizations going in different directions

The Royals move up and cast off Odie Perez. The Nationals move down and pick him up as their opening day starter.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Mar 30, 2008 8:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I've really got nothing to say right now (Just watching some Odie), but I'm just making a comment to celebrate that I'm not absolutely required to write a subject anymore.

by mazoboom on Mar 30, 2008 9:00 PM EDT   0 recs

Odie doesn't look half bad

No reason he can't be a serviceable #4 or 5 in the NL... but starting opening day? Yikes.

winning records follow good bullpens

by slayor on Mar 30, 2008 9:34 PM EDT   0 recs

Odie

looked pretty good tonight. He wasn't falling in love with his breaking stuff and mixing the fastball more. Of course, he only went 5 innings by Aug the Nats will be used to that. I agree can't believe he's the opening day starter, but he's a decent back of the rotation starter especially in the NL.

by lordbyronk on Mar 30, 2008 9:49 PM EDT   0 recs

If he were the Royals #5 SP this year

Would he be bashed more or less than Tomko?

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Mar 30, 2008 9:58 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Probably less, he's a known quantity of suckitude

We haven't had the pleasure of watching Tomko pitch a full season in Royals blue. Also, OD is left handed, which makes his suckyness even more acceptable.

winning records follow good bullpens

by slayor on Mar 30, 2008 10:02 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I think it is pretty clear that Tomko is better

He'll have no problem doing better than Odalis's 5.57 ERA last year. I find it amazing that Perez who proved that he sucked last year would likely get bashed less than Tomko who has been and will likely continue to be a better pitcher. But I think you're right. The Tomko-bashing goes far, far beyond anything rational. How dare Dayton Moore sign an average #4 SP to be our #5 SP!

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Mar 30, 2008 10:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

how much are we paying tomko again?

I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

by LeoBloom on Mar 30, 2008 10:08 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

4 mil? Something like that

winning records follow good bullpens

by slayor on Mar 30, 2008 10:13 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

$3 million

And it's not like money is scarce. The payroll is slightly below last year's payroll, so if that money hadn't been spent on the upgrade that is Tomko, then it just would have gone to waste. Should the Royals really not spend available money like a measely $3M one-year contract which clearly upgrades the rotation?

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Mar 30, 2008 10:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Exactly

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Mar 30, 2008 10:36 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Odalis is pitching against

the Braves in DC. I will be happy if we aren't out of it by May Day. Also... Tomahawk couldn't lick Odalis' shoes. Both will be gone by the All Star break.

I think some of us need to take off the rose colored glasses and realize that we may not win 70 games this year because of the division we are in.

Be loyal, Be Brave, Be Free.

by hardyguy on Mar 30, 2008 10:28 PM EDT   0 recs

It is the best division in baseball

But the Royals are better this year, by more than a little. And:

Detroit - better, but with significant pitching questions and some older, fragile position players
Cleveland - unchanged
Minnesota - worse
Chicago - a bit better, but still not very good

So if the Royals were a 73-win team last year (and they were by RS/RA), then they are at least a high-70's win team this year.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Mar 30, 2008 10:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

we will own the twins

"So whattya say, should we clean this place up?" - Tom Cruise

by DyeFan187 on Mar 30, 2008 10:40 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Have to agree

I think we are better than both the Twins and the White Sox. The White Sox added some big names, but have no pitching. The Twins are in a rebuilding year. The Royals have a solid young core and have an outside chance of a .500 season. I expect about 77 to 78 wins this year. They get better each year under GMDM, just think what we'll have to look forward to next year.

by lordbyronk on Mar 30, 2008 10:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

We will own the White Sox

Their rotation has two good SP's and three really bad ones. And Dye, Thome, Crede and Konerko should all spend some time on the DL. Probably a couple of them will spend significant time on the DL. That is an old, fragile team that isn't good to begin with.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Mar 30, 2008 10:59 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I hope after that pie in the sky comment

that you are either drunk or high. Oh that's right "fans are louts." We improved our offense by what? Guillen??? Who did what in ST? Sorry, but if we stay the same as last year and don't fall on our face early. I will be happy. No glasses, no hoopla, just stepping over the piles on my way to the hog barn. Piles!!!!

Be loyal, Be Brave, Be Free.

by hardyguy on Mar 31, 2008 12:01 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Who did what in ST?

Gordon - .885 OPS
Butler - 1.069 OPS
Callaspo - .937 OPS
Teahen - .877 OPS
DeJesus - .973 OPS

But, nobody did nothing in spring training. Nada.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Mar 31, 2008 12:19 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

We're Doing This

The right way. Our core of young players is at the age where they become the players everyone else will want to pay big money for someday. We have them at the right time. I'm not saying acquiring veterans through FA is always a bad idea, but most players peak before the big FA contract, not after.

Let's go, boys, to the toppermost of the poppermost!

by philofthenorth on Mar 31, 2008 12:29 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

and jason smith exploded

"So whattya say, should we clean this place up?" - Tom Cruise

by DyeFan187 on Mar 31, 2008 12:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Nope, nothing pie in the sky about it

We improved our offense thusly:

- Guillen is a big improvement over Emil Brown
- Teahen and DeJesus had down years and should do better
- Young players like Butler and Gordon are a year further along on the developmental curve and should be a year better

That's not pie in the sky, that's straightforward, common sense baseball analysis. Look into it. Hardy, I know you are spoiliing for a fight, not a debate, but we can actually disagree without every reply you make to be being ugly. It's a new season; give it a try. You don't have to play the grouchy old man.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Mar 31, 2008 8:45 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

69 or 77 wins all hinges on how they start. In the case of this team April is extremely important.None of that," it is a marathon not a sprint" crap in this case.

by Scutch on Mar 30, 2008 11:29 PM EDT   0 recs

Just please get off to a good start

I'm much more comfortable with a 70-92 season if we can at least flirt with .500 until Memorial Day.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 30, 2008 11:56 PM EDT   0 recs

Flirting would be a great thing.

Reality might be 7 wins and 19 losses before we get out of April. I hope I am wrong. But, I don't think our offense is that much better than last year.

Be loyal, Be Brave, Be Free.

by hardyguy on Mar 31, 2008 12:04 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

awesome article.

i, too, love the positive-negative thing.

one little snippet especially caught my eye:


there's so much excitement surrounding the Royals now in local quarters, while the rest of the country still thinks we're miserable.

i live out in southern california, and nearly every person out here, by-and-large, still consider us the absolute worst team in major league baseball. it is all perception, sure, and it isnt particularly intelligent, but that is what the nation thinks of us.

by rockchalk on Mar 31, 2008 1:33 AM EDT   0 recs

shocked DeJesus hasn't hit 10 in a season

2008, baby!

This space intentionally left blank.

by marbotty on Mar 31, 2008 5:26 AM EDT   0 recs

he hit 9 in 2005

and a nation has never forgotten how close he was

"So whattya say, should we clean this place up?" - Tom Cruise

by DyeFan187 on Mar 31, 2008 12:23 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The Latest On

Today's weather:
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full_loop.php
It takes a bit to download, but the payoff is worth it.

Let's go, boys, to the toppermost of the poppermost!

by philofthenorth on Mar 31, 2008 9:52 AM EDT   0 recs

Great piece!

Now let the games begin. - TL

"Why shouldn't we believe that we're going to win the World Series?" - Ted Lilly, 1/19/2008, Daily Herald interview w/Barry Rozner

by timlacy on Mar 31, 2008 10:51 AM EDT   0 recs

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