The DICE for the best in MLB

by Skirra on Mar 8, 2008 11:35 AM EST

I got bored and computed the DICE for the top 100 in wins last year. (Looking back I wish that I had done IP or ERA instead.)If anyone can tell me how to post an excel spreadsheet I can put it up; if you are interested. The results were somehat predictable at the top but there were some interesting things that jumped out at me.

Some quick observations:
Boston and NY must have terrible defense because their pitchers gained the most when removing defense from the equation. I think parks may have hurt them too with the big outfield in NY allowing more hits to fall in and the monster turning long fly balls into hits.

Predictably the three guys from SD that qualified (Maddux, Young and Peavy) were in the top 15. Peavy and young were just really good though so I don't know how much Petco helped them.

Surprisingly even though 20 guys had actual ERAs over 5 (and a few over 6) only 8 had a DICE over five.

BTW Fausto Carmona DICE 3.7 (ERA 3.07) combine that with the huge IP numbers last year and I expect a big regression.
Joe Blanton 3.26 (3.95) was better than Haren 3.46 (3.07) and Santana 3.58 (3.33)
Dontrelle Willis 91st 4.89 (5.17) The AL is going to rock this guy.
DICE ERA
J Peavy 2.60 2.54
J Beckett 2.84 3.27
C Sabathia 2.90 3.21
E Bedard 2.95 3.16
J Smoltz 2.97 3.11 (is he ever going to get old)
B Webb 3.00 3.01
K Escobar 3.15 3.4
Y Gallardo 3.17 3.67
C Young 3.19 3.12
S Kazmir 3.21 3.48

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Comments

Wow.....

I still think this DICE tool is useful, and that it could be made to take park into account.

Do they use humidors at ALL the stadiums now, or is is just Colorado?

Finally coming back to the 'K'!!!! I'm going to be there 7/11/08, vs the SEA Mariners, of course!

by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Mar 8, 2008 12:28 PM EST reply actions

I don't know about the humidors but Colorado

only had one guy in the top 50 (Francis 3.95.)

After doing the analysis I believe it is more useful than I was giving it credit for. I wouldn't have picked up on Carmona's red flags or know that Blanton was the best defense independent pitcher on the trade block outside of Bedard. I also think it tells us about defense and parks that are otherwise hard to quantify. Example: Mussina Dice 3.77 ERA 5.15.

by Skirra on Mar 8, 2008 8:10 PM EST reply actions