A Happy Opening Day
One of the old arguments I used to have with my girlfriend was about whether following sports was somehow better than following celebrities, or being a hardcore movie buff, or whatever. It wasn't contentious or anything like that, just something that became a discussion. In defense of sports, which actually most of the time I find to be quite boring and even annoying, I trotted out the standard line that the games, unlike a television show, aren't scripted, which always brings us back. In this case, I consider that to be a cliche that happens to be true. And it's hard to find a more random game, at the microlevel, than baseball.
We got a taste of that yesterday.
Opening Days are funny because you really can't help but over-analyze them. If your team has a great Opening Day, then goes onto have a winning season, it remains this shining moment in your mind, when the tone was set, or a new attitude established, or a message delivered, or whatever. If you lose 13-2, then go on to lose 90 games, the same happens in reverse. Most of the time however, try as we might, there really is no message, no precedent, no keys to anything revealed. As analysts and fans, it's almost impossible to resist this temptation. Thus, hours after yesterday's game ended, a story like this was posted. Our beloved Posnanski essentially commits this crime every year, and today it was no different, they won Hillman's way, just like in 2006, they showed they were Buddy-fied, and no messin' around, and competent. Not that many of us are immune, last year, after the Royals Opening Day victory over the Red Sox, some random blogger suggested the Royals might be en route to a surprise season, and that the Red Sox had problems. In a way, that happened, at least the Royals part, but the surprisingly good play wouldn't manifest itself for another three months. In between, the Royals were unbelievably terrible.
Still, even if it was only one game, it was a good game, and that, finally, is the point of all this (waves arms around the expansive Royals Review World Headquarters), isn't it? Even if it was only 1/162nd of the season, the Royals got an early jump on playing spoiler, and posted an exciting, come from behind win. Good stuff.
Things I Liked:
- Alex Gordon hit a home run, off an elite pitcher. We don't know if he'll struggle again early. We don't know if this signals anything. Nevertheless, a no doubt homer in a tough park off Verlander is a platonic good.
- Grudzielanek got on-base five times, stole a base, drove in a run, and setup the winning score in the 10th. Just when I start to sour on Grudz, he has a game like today's.
- I still haven't learned to love it, but Gil Meche was Gil Meche, laboring through six innings, with men constantly on-base. He wasn't efficient, but somehow only allowed three runs to a good Tigers lineup. Banny gets all the attention for being hit lucky, but in a different way, thats precisely Meche's issue. He gives up hits. Deal with it. I'm loath to make a moral or emotional judgment about a physical performance, but perhaps you can say it was a gritty performance and he gutted it out without his best stuff. Or, he made pitches when he had to. Or, the Tigers missed chances. Or, we just don't know. Anyway, Meche endured, ate innings, and avoided disaster.
- Who expected Brett Tomko as the first man out of the bullpen? I vaguely remember seeing something about him maybe missing his first start, and thus, available as a reliever, but I assumed it would be as a mop-up or 12th inning guy. Nope, he faced Sheffield/Mags/Cabrera with the Royals clinging to a 4-3 lead. Umm, Ok. Wouldn't have been my first choice, but it worked. Hillman then sent him out again for the 8th, another definite, "ok?" moment, and it wasn't half bad. He allowed a homer to a good hitter, which sucked, but also, has been known to happen. Essentially, I hated the actual decision, but liked Hillman's semi-randomness, err, flexibility, in making it.
- We may need to come up with some nickname for Nunez & Soria. I couldn't watch the game, but Leo's numbers look good, and multiple commenters mentioned his "stuff" looking fly, or cool, or good or something. Soria, was Soria, of course. And combined they went three innings, struck out four, and allowed a walk and a double. With fervent hope, we can look forward to a very nice bullpen this year. Based not on those three innings, of course, but on what we already know. Well... hopefully.
Things I Didn't Like:
- Hackfest continued, especially early. The Royals seemed to be swinging early a lot, and only drew three walks in twelve innings. Non-Teahen players only managed one. Overall, the Tigers threw 173 pitches yesterday, but 38 of those were Bautista's in the 12th.
- Being merely an informed outsider, it's hard to make sense of the situation with DeJesus, who left early due to tightness or soreness or whathaveyou. Maybe he absolutely begged to play against the Brewers on Saturday. Maybe he promised a sick boy he'd hit a homer for him. Maybe it was fine then, but wasn't later. That happens. Who knows. The easy thing to say was that the Royals botched the situation. As of last night, we seem to be in a wait and see holding pattern.
- The Royals won, gloriously won, on a bloop single in the 12th inning off of Detroit's fifth or sixth best reliever. The offense wasn't a display of the beauty of small-ball so much as a display of not many good hitters. I think Pena got two at bats too many yesterday, and somehow German ended up playing the bottom of the 12th in the field. Those were mistakes, so keep that in mind when you have JoePo's pixie dust sprinkled on you.
It was a nice win, and there is no shame in enjoying it. To make too much of it, however, would be like defining true love by watching thirty minutes of Grey's Anatomy or by thinking that Tom and Katie say something profound about something. They don't, and neither did yesterday.
1 recs |
37 comments
Comments
Good breakdown of a very good day
Opening day wins or losses alwasy feel doubly good or bad. We've been waiting for months for this game and we have two days to experience the intense emotions that come from the result.
I wasn't surprised that Tomko came out in the 7th, as he is probably one of the better righties in our pen. He certainly had good stuff with a fastball sitting at or near the mid-90's, including hitting 96.
I was surprised that Yabuta didn't come out to pitch the 8th. He is supposed to be the primary RH setup man. But after getting hit by that comebacker from Braun, maybe he's not quite 100 yet. It would likely be doubly hard for him to loosen up that leg in the cold of Detroit yesterday. Also, Tomko cruised through the 7th. How many times have you heard fans complain about a manager sticking with the hot hand? "He pitched so well in inning X, so why the hell didn't the manager just leave him out there for inning X+1?" It's not like Yabuta or Ramirez are rock solid options who you know are going to shut down the Detroit lineup. I don't think it was a stupid decision, per se.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on Apr 1, 2008 4:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
this may be a dumb question
but is Mahay hurt?
(ducking)
by royalsreview on Apr 1, 2008 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't believe lefties were coming up
Not that he's a LOOGY, but when you've got a good mix of LHP and RHP in the bullpen, go with the best advantage you've got.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on Apr 1, 2008 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My thought too
I thought we brought him in for precisely that kind of situation. He is no LOOGY, he can get righties out.
Also, I know Peralta was squeezed out because of numbers, but that really hurt because he is really tough on righties, and Detroit is very right-handed heavy.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Apr 1, 2008 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We brought him in to be a good relief pitcher
That doesn't mean he's the #1 setup man in every situation. When you've got 3 good RH bats coming up and you have every righty in the pen available, I'm not going with Mahay. There would be no good reason to go with Mahay in that situation. In such a situation, I would go with:
1. Yabuta
2. Nunez
3. Tomko
4. Ramirez
If Yabuta is not 100%, take him to the bottom of the list. And I think it is a close call between Nunez and Tomko. People talk about Nunez like he's a right setup man right now. We really don't know that and he hasn't proven that yet. He had a pretty good 1/3 of a season for the Royals and he's got a good fastball. I don't know that he's necessarily ready to be a good setup man quite yet.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on Apr 1, 2008 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm willing to say
That Tomko is not that bad.However, he is coming off a disastrous season. Now that season may be an anomaly, but he should have to prove that it was an anomaly by getting guys out in meaningful games, not by impressing scouts in spring training. That means easing him into low leverage roles, not putting him into the 8th inning of a one run ballgame.
I don't see why Mahay was not the option here. If he's not going to be used against righties, then it was a silly signing. If we're going to cast him as a guy to only be used, or mostly to be used against lefties, it was a completely redundant signing. We have Gobble, who was excellent as a LOOGY last year. We have DLR and Musser, both of whom could be given a chance to be a solid LOOGY.
But as you smartly pointed out when we signed him, Mahay has the ability to get righties out. So if Mahay is not Trey's option in one run game in the eighth, then I have to question if he's going to miscast Mahay as a LOOGY, when that would not be the optimal way of utilizing him.
Mahay against righties:
Career: .252/.345/.407
2007: .242/.372/.379
2005-2007: .268/.366/.398
Tomko against righties:
Career: .265/.313/.449
2007: .291/.333/.460
2005-2007: .271/.310/.436
They're both about even - Mahay allows more baserunners, Tomko allows more extra base hits. But 2007 is an important data point since its the most recent data to go off of, and Tomko was clearly much worse. So I'd give the nod to Mahay to come out.
Ultimately it didn't matter that much, and the difference between the two isn't that great. But I suppose it causes me to have bigger worries about Hillman's bullpen usage; (1) that Tomko is "his guy" and he will fall in love with him the way that Tony Pena fell in love with Grimsley and Buddy fell in love with certain players; and (2) that he will misuse Mahay as a traditional lefty when it seems clear Mahay is a reliever who happens to be left-handed, not a situational lefty.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Apr 2, 2008 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A couple things
If Hillman really likes how Tomko is throwing and thinks he's the best pitcher for the situation, then he should use him there, regardless of how he pitched last season.
With regard to the R/L matchups, you're only looking at half of the equation. In addition to looking at how Tomko and Mahay have done against righties, we also have to look at how those Tiger batters who were coming up have performed against RHP and LHP. I have a feeling they have done much better against lefties.
And just because Mahay wasn't signed as a LOOGY and isn't merely a LOOGY doesn't mean that one should completely disregard the handedness of the opposing batters in determining when you use him. While I think Mahay is a good setup man, that doesn't mean he's always the best option for the 8th inning. That he's not just a LOOGY means that you don't have to automatically pull him every time a righty batter comes up. But I'd still take platoon advantages when possible. Similarly, I wouldn't disregard the R/L factor for pitchers like Yabuta, Nunez or any other pitcher (with the likely exception of Soria).
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on Apr 2, 2008 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One more thing I just thought of
Hillman also might have thought that Tomko's effectiveness against righties (which is already pretty good) would be even better this year with his new and pretty impressive curveball.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on Apr 2, 2008 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's fine
But that reminds me more of the Buddy Bell approach of "I can fix him if he just gets aggressive," rather than a more objective approach of looking at the stats and realizing a players' strengths and limitations.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Apr 2, 2008 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But
"If Hillman really likes how Tomko is throwing and thinks he's the best pitcher for the situation, then he should use him there, regardless of how he pitched last season."
Well of course. I'm questioning his judgment in thinking that.
"With regard to the R/L matchups, you're only looking at half of the equation. In addition to looking at how Tomko and Mahay have done against righties, we also have to look at how those Tiger batters who were coming up have performed against RHP and LHP. I have a feeling they have done much better against lefties."
I'm imagine most of those righty/lefty numbers for the hitters are against lefties pitchers who don't fare well against righty hitters. Righties have an inherent advantage against lefty pitchers. Mahay breaks that mold. Obviously he has faced righties before who have good splits against lefties, and he's done well. Why would he not in this instance?
"And just because Mahay wasn't signed as a LOOGY and isn't merely a LOOGY doesn't mean that one should completely disregard the handedness of the opposing batters in determining when you use him. While I think Mahay is a good setup man, that doesn't mean he's always the best option for the 8th inning. That he's not just a LOOGY means that you don't have to automatically pull him every time a righty batter comes up."
Sure, but why Tomko? I think he is a better option than Bret. Putting Tomko over Mahay because of handedness ignores the stats and falls back on old-school conventional wisdom.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Apr 2, 2008 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ignores the stats?
Sure, but why Tomko? I think he is a better option than Bret. Putting Tomko over Mahay because of handedness ignores the stats and falls back on old-school conventional wisdom.
Tomko has a better OPS against righties than Mahay, including 56 points better of OBP (the most important element of OPS). So, strictly going by the stats, I would definitely want Tomko in there, particularly if you like the way he's been pitching, particularly with an additional out pitch.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on Apr 2, 2008 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How much...
do we crucify Hillman for the Tomko move if we go on to lose the game? A whole lot.
by Royal Revival on Apr 1, 2008 4:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
probably
I don't know which inning was more nonsensical, the 7th or the 8th. You can make the case that the Royals should have brought in their 2nd best reliever for the 7th, considering who was up. Instead, Tomko.
The 8th was mixed bag. As I said, giving up a HR to a good hitter isn't a capital offense, but still, thats not the goal either. No idea why Hillman was in semi-long man mode at that point.
by royalsreview on Apr 1, 2008 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe he knows these pitchers and how they are throwing right now better than we do
I'm not saying that he knows more about them, therefore every decision he makes is the best one, but his opinion should be a data point in our analysis. And he does have information we don't have.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on Apr 1, 2008 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Meh
You can use that defend any decision a manager has. Seems like a blanket cop-out.
Not to say there isn't some validity to it, but I am really struggling to think of a legit reasons why Tomko would be used over some of our other options.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Apr 1, 2008 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some legitimate reasons:
1. Yabuta might not be at 100%
2. Tomko might be better and more reliable as a reliever than Nunez right now
3. Nunez and Ramirez are very inexperienced major league pitchers
4. He's a RHP and there were RH batters coming up
5. Tomko's stuff has been nasty, particularly late in spring training
I'm not saying it was necessarily the best move, but there certainly are legitimate reasons why Hillman would go with him.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on Apr 1, 2008 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tomko was also stretched out
so he could go multiple innings if necessary.
by Gopherballs on Apr 1, 2008 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
possibly
good points on both sides
maybe, with it being Opening Day, and the heart of their lineup, the fact that Tomko is a vet helps
then again, if he'd sent out Yabuta, and it worked, we'd be praising that too and joe poe would be writing about how that will bring Yabuta confidence for the rest of his life
what i dont understand was sending him out for the eighth
I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me
by LeoBloom on Apr 1, 2008 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Meche
It was only one game against a good lineup, but I would put Meche in the things I didn't like category. The differences between good Meche (2007) and mediocre Meche (2006 and earlier) were reducing walks (2.6 BB/9 in 2007 versus 3.7 BB/9 career), inducing more groundballs (46.8% GB% v. 40.9% GB%), and suppressing home runs (0.92 HR/9 v. 1.15 HR/9), which is related to more groundballs. Yesterday (6 IP, 4 BB, 1 HR, 4:8 Ground Out:Fly Out ratio, 35% GB% overall) was closer to mediocre Meche than good Meche. We should see a better performance next time out against the hacking Twins.
Nunez definitely fell into the things I liked category. His fastball sat 95-97 and missed bats, and Hillman trusted him in a close game.
by Gopherballs on Apr 1, 2008 4:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Meche did a pretty good job against one of the best offenses in baseball
Those stats against that kind of offense are good, period. I'll also cut him a little slack for losing the feel on his pitches due to the cold and losing some of his control. He earned that Quality Start.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on Apr 1, 2008 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Welke
The problem with the walks was primarily at Tim Welke's feet, however. It wasn't just homerism noting the disparity between Alex Gordon's strike zone and Gary Sheffield's. Hell, even the Tiger announcers mentioned it once.
At least two of those walks Meche allowed were actually strikeouts. In fact, I think he struck Sheffield out twice in one at-bat.
by jonfmorse on Apr 1, 2008 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Meche's last pitch to Sheff in the 4th was at the knees
but he missed low on the previous pitch and the other walks to Sheff, Inge, and Renteria were fair.
by Gopherballs on Apr 1, 2008 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe...but maybe not
The ump's strike zone was all over the place all day. Some strikes were called balls. Some balls were called strikes. It was very inconsistent. Meche got hosed on some calls. But he pitched well overall against an outstanding offense.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on Apr 1, 2008 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Check the MLB f/x data on Meche's 4 walks
The last pitch to Sheff in the 4th was at the knees and probably should have been a strike, but not the others.
by Gopherballs on Apr 1, 2008 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm talking about his entire outing
He got the benefit of some calls and didn't get the call on many others. The ump's strike zone was all over the place. To write his outing off as a bad one because he gave up too many fly balls and had 4 walks on this day just doesn't make sense to me. It ignores the quality of the offense he faced and the inconsistency of the strike zone he had to deal with.
Is that you, G?
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on Apr 1, 2008 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My comment, and the comment to which I was responding, were about the 4 walks
It was a mediocre outing, not a bad outing. Fly balls and walks are bad. They also just happen to be two things under his control that he improved last year and were instrumental to his success. Fly balls and walks are two things that we should not like to see from him in any outing. But as I said in my initial post, it was one game and against a good offense. The point is that this is not type of performance we want from him, especially going forward.
G must be a popular name in the SB nation.
by Gopherballs on Apr 1, 2008 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
um, it's not me.
but yeah, i'm into g.
The first thing I know about someone in a KC hat is that they're loyal.
by grantfunk on Apr 1, 2008 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's as may be, but
MLB f/x is essentially an irrelevant point. We all know that in reality an ump's strike zone is not going to match f/x, no matter what; however, an ump's strike zone needs to be consistent in and of itself. If a pitch that gets called a strike is suddenly a ball an inning later when it's a 3-2 count on Gary Sheffield, that's a problem, and it's not Gil's.
by jonfmorse on Apr 1, 2008 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think Yabuta was available yesterday unless absolutely necessary
From the Royals official site:
Most of the Royals took Tuesday off. John Bale, who will be the starting pitcher on Friday night at Minnesota, was to throw a bullpen session caught by Miguel Olivo. Reliever Yasuhiko Yabuta was to play catch and test his right leg, which was bruised when he was hit by a line drive last weekend.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on Apr 1, 2008 6:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
don't understand
the 1st/2nd guessing of tomko in the 8th. it seems pretty simple to me. the royals believe that tomko is a very good pitcher and better than any non-Soria reliever. it's why they gave him every opportunity to win a spot in the rotation and why Hillman went to him in the first big spot of the year. the royals are trusting their scouts more than they have in a generation and their scouts think that tomko's good. there also may be some truth to the idea that yesterday may not have been the best place to throw yabuta into the fire. you can disagree that tomko is in fact better than the other guys in the pen, but I think that the decision was pretty simple tactically. Hillman wanted his best guy in there.
by billexgordler on Apr 1, 2008 7:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I understand scouting
But I also don't understand why they think Tomko is so good when he stunk the joint up last year. And even before that he was pretty average to below average.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Apr 2, 2008 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Listen to yourself
"But I also don't understand why they think Tomko is so good when he stunk the joint up last year."
First of all, if you understand scouting then you should know that they are paying attention to his performance right now and don't care about last year. If he has improved something, his curveball for example, he may be a lot better than last year. Second, I'm pretty sure I heard a lot of sentences similar to that last year, just with a different pitcher's name in there. While I hold a lot of the opinions on RR in high regard, I'm gonna go with the scouts on this one.
Disclaimer: Comments may not be suitable for young children or women who are pregnant, or women who think they may be pregnant. Side effects could include nausea, dizziness, or yelling at the monitor in disbelief.
by MileHighKCfan on Apr 2, 2008 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
...why they think Tomko is so good...
I don't know that they think he's "so good." In 2004, he pitched like a better than average #3 SP. In 2005 and 2006, he pitched like a better than average #4 SP. In 2007, he mostly stunk. (all of these descriptions are based on park and league normalized stats). What they see is a guy who still has very good stuff (mid 90's fastball) who can/should be able to pitch like an average #4 SP. And that is exactly what the Royals needed. Every team's rotation is going to go at least 6 deep, and the Royals only had 3 reliable SP's. They needed at least one more guy who was going to at least pitch up to the level of his rotation spot. The stats (if you look beyond just 2007) make it look like he can/should do that.
They probably also thought that McClure might be able to help him as he has helped some other pitchers. I don't know if he's helped Tomko's control any, but he certainly helped him by teaching him that curveball.
So, he's got the tools and the performance has been pretty good, outside of 2007. Add in a good pitching coach and you've stablized the back end of the rotation.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on Apr 2, 2008 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
opening day
what's also great about opening day is that it's the only day of the season that confers disproportionate positivity. that is, if you lose, well, it's just one of 162, but if you win it's a harbinger, synecdochic, predictive. you get more excited from a win than you get down from a loss. it's the only day all season that doesn't feel zero sum. God, Gordon crushed that ball. and verlander is SO good.
by billexgordler on Apr 1, 2008 7:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Anyone care, or think it might be interesting
to keep track of how the games are called throughout the year...After each game some sort of consensus could be made by everyone, as to whether the ump called a great, decent, or awfull game. Or maybe just keep track of how often our wins or losses are determined soley by the umpire....Maybe I'm just too bored waiting for Weds. game......
Let's Go Blues!
by powderbluesfor08 on Apr 1, 2008 8:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The only problem with that
Is that most fans of most teams think that the umpires screwed them to some degree, especially in any loss. Our objectivity in such evaluation would be almost impossible.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on Apr 1, 2008 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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