Five percent progress report

by powderbluepower on Apr 12, 2008 7:38 PM EDT Comment 17 comments

Five percent of the season has been completed. Small sample size you say? Well, I'm going to keep checking the stats and such every five percent (roughly 8 games) to keep a track of the yearly progress. We'll see the highs, we'll see the lows, and we'll see what happens with our boys in blue.

Observations through five percent of the season:

Pitching: This team is sick. The team ERA is 2.25, last I saw. The Royals have given up just 18 runs all year, which the Baseball Tonight guys said leads the league. I'm too lazy to question that. Twice in two weeks, they've said "Meche. Bannister. Greinke. You could do a lot worse than those three to start the rotation." Seriously. Twice they've said it. And strangely, Meche is the worst pitcher on the Royals right now. He's 0-1, with a team-high 6.94 ERA. That's horrible. What a slacker, despite his 10 Ks. Please note this is sarcasm, but I would expect his numbers to improve a bit.

Brian Bannister has been ridiculous. He currently holds the top game score in the AL (77) for his April 2 game, when he went 7 innings, 2 hits, 0 ER and 4 Ks on 86 pitches. Bannister's ERA is 1.50, he is tied with Meche for most Ks with 10, and has only given up 2 runs. Yowza. That can't last, but dang. It'd be nice if it could.

I can't go on without mentioning Zack Greinke. Zack has been simply phenomenal. Through two games, he looks like what Royals fans, officials and really anybody else, has expected out of him. Zack has a sickening .60 ERA. That's a case where italics are justified. And the game earlier today against the Yankees? Seventh best in the AL this year on game score (70). His games have been eerily similar. Game 1: 7 innings, 1 ER, 6 hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Game 2: 8 innings, 0 ER, 6 hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Zack has been on his game, so much so that Baseball Tonight talked about how they think he's been good this year. No kidding. Can it last? Through five percent, who cares? He's playing well and even if he regresses a bit, he'll still be darn good.

Oh, and in news I think I am required to mention since I am a Royals fan: the bullpen is pretty good. Nasty good. Soria, Ramirez, Yabuta, Gobble and Nunez are a combined 15.1 innings, 7 hits, 0 runs, 3 BBs, and 21 Ks, 0.00 ERA. Yeah, 21 Ks. Slacker Ron Mahay has put in 4.2 innings, giving up a run and 3 hits and a walk for an ERA of 1.93. Brett Tomko, you ask? Well, because you asked, 7 innings, 1 run, 2 walks, 5 Ks and 7 hits. What does this all mean? The pitching has been FILTHY, DIRTY, SICK, LIGHTS OUT, FRIGHTENING and any other capitalized words you want.

Batting: If there's one thing you can say about the Royals, it's consistency. Here are the runs scored: 5, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 5, 4. What does that mean? 4 runs a game. Expect it.

Some players are doing absolutely great. Alex Gordon, for example: .303/.324/.545 (Or, for those of you who like traditional numbers, he leads the team in home runs, RBI, runs and total bases. Oh, and is tied for the team lead in strikeouts.... umm... err....). Billy Butler has been just unfair against pitchers, hitting .406/.424/.531. Other players of good note offensively include Mark Teahen (.286/.412 (6 walks!)/.571) and Mark Grudzielanek, who has quietly put together a .407/.488/.444 line. That's the good news.

The bad news? Jose Guillen (.152/.200/.182) and Tony Pena Jr. (.040/.077/.040) have both sucked. Hard (To wit: TPJ is tied with The Chosen One Alex Gordon with most strikeouts). Only 95 percent of the season left, gentlemen! Get it together! Time is running out! Joey Gathright is also not doing so well at getting on base: .219/.257/.250. He has seven hits on the short year. Luckily for him, he also has 6 stolen bases. If you combine his stolen bases and total bases for a fake stat I'm making up called "ACTUAL TOTAL BASES (ATB)", then he has a higher RTB than Grudzielanek (Gathright's at 14, Grudzy's at 13).

So overall, there are the haves and have nots for the Royals. Gordon, Grudzy, Butler and Teahen among the haves and TPJ, Guillen and Gathright in the have nots. Gload and Buck both have slugging around .375 (Buck's OBP is around .300 and Gload's is .387), so I guess they're the middle of the pack. But it's just interesting that there's such defined groups being created.

Standings: Hey, look at this! The Royals are in first place! I'm so proud of them. They're a game up on the White Sox. Two and a half games up on the Indians and Twins. And even more surprising, they're five games up on the vaunted Tigers. Royals are 6-2 and, yes, on pace for 122-40. Will that last? Unlikely is putting it mildly. But through five percent, the pythagorean is exactly what our record is.

This period's roundup: On the strength of an absurd bullpen (we need to give this bullpen a nickname if they're going to play this well. Any suggestions?) and solid, above average performances by the starters (including a competition between Bannister and Greinke for best starter on the staff), the offense hasn't had to produce a whole lot in order to get wins. Which is good, because 4 seems to be their magic number of runs. So at this point, the Royals are doing better than our craziest dreams. Will it last? I'll see you after game 16.

Current record: 6-2, first place in the AL Central (1 game lead on Chicago)

1 recs | Comment 17 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

I truly think the royals will contend and have a chance at the division

By the way.. Eric Young on baseball tonight see's the royals as being a "real" true contender this season. it should be fun gang.. fun team to watch

I love life. Life = Royals

by focs on Apr 10, 2008 2:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I saw that

while typing this up. For a minute, I got really giddy. Then I had to settle myself down and think clearly, since we ARE just at the five percent mark... and not the 95 percent mark.

by powderbluepower on Apr 10, 2008 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good write up

That's a good breakdown of how things are going so far. I have one suggestion, though. I would make more frequent paragraph breaks. Those huge blocks of text tend to be off-putting for a reader. Just break up the text a little more.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 10, 2008 2:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

thanks

it has been fixed.

by powderbluepower on Apr 10, 2008 3:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Looks great

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 10, 2008 3:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like the Actual Total Bases stat

I think measures such as OPS grossly undervalue speed players. When Gathright singles and steals second and third, as he did on Tuesday, that produces a triple's value to his team, but it's only a single in the statistics.

by andrewmiller on Apr 10, 2008 9:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Actually

While I do think that there should be a formula that takes stolen bases into account, a single and a steal should not be weighed as heavily as a double. A single and a steal usually cannot score a runner from first. While the end result is the same for the better, the team result is different, so a better way to do it is to figure out exactly the difference between runs expected from a double and runs expected from a stolen base. What you'll come up with will be a number in the 1.6 range or something around there. Its still valuable, but not as much so as a two base hit.

If I had a rocket ship, I'd never want to land.

by dman126 on Apr 10, 2008 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Quality points

I agree with that it deserves a value somewhere between 1 and 2, especially because the single+steal scenario only works when the base ahead isn't occupied. As much as I'll champion OBP+speed players, I'm considerably less enthusiastic about Gator's abilities when he bats with runners aboard.

by andrewmiller on Apr 10, 2008 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am no statistician

The point about Gathright and Grudzy on doubles is a little moot at this stage (albeit, most of this post is, too, at this point) because they both have the same number of doubles. While Grudzy can get on base more often, Gathright has snatched 6 steals. However, I found another hole in the Actual Total Bases count: I didn't factor in walks. So, the adjusted ATB (walks + steals + total bases) puts Gathright at 15 and Grudzy at 16. What does this actually mean? Nothing, really. Does it mean they're equally dangerous? Not really. While Grudz can get on base more, Gathright gets an extra base almost every time he gets on. (6 steals while getting on base just 8 times, including one double and one walk.) I guess my point is that Gathright's stolen bases are providing a good deal of value to make up for his poor ability to get on base.

by powderbluepower on Apr 10, 2008 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I Ran Across

This back in the 80's:
"Total average is a baseball statistic devised by sportswriter Thomas Boswell in the 1970s. The statistic is designed to measure a hitter's overall offensive contributions.

The definition of the statistic is simple. A player gets a credit for every base he accumulates and a penalty for every out he makes. So a player gets one credit for a single, walk, stolen base or being hit by a pitch; two for a double; three for a triple; and four for a home run. Add all the bases together and divide them by the number of outs the player makes and you have the player's Total Average.

The formula is: Total Average = [(Total Bases + Hit By Pitch + Walks + Stolen Bases) - Caught Stealing]/[(At Bats - Hits) + Caught Stealing + Grounded Into Double Play]

Because Total average emphasizes walks and extra base hits - and de-emphasizes singles - it has much in common with statistics developed by Bill James and other sabermetricians. Like OPS, total average gives credit to players who draw a lot of walks and hit with a lot of power: Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, Ted Williams and Frank Thomas for instance. James himself was critical of total average."

Let's go, boys, to the toppermost of the poppermost!

by philofthenorth on Apr 10, 2008 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gordo's

working a lot of counts and getting caught on strike 3 looking a lot. I think this is actually a positive sign--he's being patient, learning the strike zone, making adjustments (see HR #2 in Detroit on a pitch he took 2x in the opener).

TPJ, um, well, he did get that streak breaking walk the other day, so that's good. Actually, both he and Guillen are going to hit more than they have in 8 GAMES (not the same quality of hitting for each, but you know what I mean). Basically, they're like the entire Detroit Tigers--unfortunately slumping to start the season. Guillen is kind of explainable--everyone thought he had two more weeks to get ready for the season. Apparently (at least according to Hillman) his approach is fine, the hits just haven't come yet. They will.

Now, talk to me again after the 35% report...

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Apr 10, 2008 11:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Guillen

I don't buy that as an excuse. In my mind, it's like he had a new employee training (spring training), then was expecting to take a vacation (suspension) before actually working. The idea of the training is so that you're ready to go. Everyone else had the same chance to prepare, and he was expected to produce just like everyone else (in fact, possibly more so, because he was brought in to help our batting woes). At this point, I want to see him do well, but I haven't been impressed yet. He'll come around, though.

by powderbluepower on Apr 10, 2008 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs