Quick Note: Joakim Soria

From Driveline Mechanics...

Royals’ fan Brian commented on the request post, stating how much he liked the site and if I could do a bit on Joakim Soria:

I’d love to see an analysis on Joakim Soria. The guy doesn’t throw all that hard but gets K’s all the same. I’ve read that batter’s can’t really pick up his release point and that it looks like the ball is coming out of his sleeve. I’d be interested to see if his mechanics might explain this. Thanks, I love the Web site.

Flattery will get you everywhere, my friend! Let that be a lesson to all readers out there.

I’ve gotten a few comments on various forums and blogs that I keep track of using blogstats in WordPress, and almost all of the A’s, Rays, and Royals fans have been very supportive and interested in my work. Yankees fans tend to question my credibility and flame me. Though it is over a small sample size, it sure does reinforce a few stereotypes! Let it be known that I have a bias towards a readership who likes to have civil debate with me, rather than a group who would rather just post irrelevant jabs.

Anyway, moving on to Soria. Royals’ closer Joakim Soria is another Rule 5 draft success story, being stolen out of the Padres organization after they left him exposed. He went on to have a pretty damn good year in 2007, but spent some time on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation.

In 2007, Soria posted a 2.48 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 69 innings, logging 75 strikeouts and allowing just 19 walks and 3 home runs. Those are outstanding peripherals, and it leads many people to wonder just how the hell a pitcher of this aptitude managed to be exposed in the minor league draft? Well, Soria has had a long and indistinguishable career in the minors and the various Mexican leagues, spending some time with the Dodgers and Padres. His numbers in the Mexican league weren’t all that good; he kept getting bombed out of the park. However, Baseball Prospectus posted this interesting bit of information on his PECOTA card:

There is tremendous variation in altitude between teams, which makes park effects extremely relevant. …[this] makes the adjustment for some pitchers surprisingly easy. Soria played in Mexico City, which at 7,300 feet is 2,000 feet higher than Denver. As a result, his translated ERAs are actually better than his actual ERAs.

Now that’s interesting! True to form, Soria is a flyball pitcher (41% GB rate in 2007). Something Royals fans should be wary of is the fact that he posted a low .256 BABIP in 2007, something that he probably will not repeat. The MLB average was just above .300 last year, and Soria’s eBABIP based on his FB/GB/LD batted-ball data indicates he should be around .311 BABIP (using .763LD% + .265GB% + .131FB% = eBABIP). If you regress Soria’s AVG-against statistic, he probably wouldn’t look as studly. (For all that kind of fun data, you can check out Fangraphs)

What about his pitches? His Pitch f/x data is not all that exciting except for his fastball:

He doesn’t get much lateral movement on his fastball (Break x), but his vertical movement (Break z) seemed quite high for me. Though it is functionally impossible to throw a four-seam fastball with enough backspin that it actually rises, if you throw one with more backspin than the average pitcher, it will give the appearance that it is rising. Two pitchers that batters often ascribe this feat to are Bartolo Colon and Jonathon Papelbon, so I checked their Pitch f/x data to see how Soria matched up.

Colon

Papelbon

Soria’s fastball compares well with both of these pitchers, though both Colon and Papelbon get better lateral movement on their fastballs and have better velocity.

What’s really cool is his fastball chart:

Now that’s how you get flyballs, popups, and strikeouts. Soria relentlessly and aggressively attacks the strike zone, pouring strike after strike in on the batter. I am a big fan of this approach - I hate walks, and as long as your stuff is good enough to avoid significant extra-base hits, pounding the strike zone keeps the defense on their toes and the hitters on their heels. Interestingly enough, Soria’s sabermetric-friendly teammate Brian Bannister had his theories confirmed that reaching 1-2 and 0-2 counts would help depress his BABIP rates, as well as throwing breaking balls in those counts (it is a small effect, but statistically significant).

Mechanics

I didn’t set out to do a full-blown analysis of Soria, and I won’t for now. However, here’s a slowed down clip I found of him on pitchingclips.com:

I looked at the clip for about 10 minutes on my computer, and I am not really too enthused with his followthrough, which I think explains all of his shoulder inflammation problems. Here’s a quick rundown:

I wish he would throw against a firm front side; he should focus on slapping his chest with his glove or at least firm it up somewhat.

Conclusion

All in all, I like Soria’s ability to compete at the MLB level from a statistical point of view. He fits in well with the organization’s philosophy of having flyball pitchers who strikeout a fair amount of batters with good control. It keeps errors down by depressing hard-hit groundballs and keeps the game moving pretty quickly. As a player, I love that aspect of pitchers who work quick, pitch fearlessly, and throw a ton of strikes. It keeps me on my toes and in the game mentally. Mechanically, however, Soria has a huge followthrough problem that he needs to fix to stop landing on the DL with shoulder inflammation. It could lead to something serious down the line.