The Draft

by eboston on Apr 10, 2008 4:55 PM EDT

With the Royals having the third pick in this years draft who would everyone like to see KC pick? My personal choices would be either Aaron Crow or Pedro Alvarez.

Crow is just awesome, the dood is shutting down the Big 12.

With Alvarez I would move him to 1B and have our corners set for awhile ( I don't think it would take him long to be ready for the majors).

So what does everyone else think? What should be our priority with the #3 pick?

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Best available player

Given the lack of good hitting in our system, I'd really like to have a hitter, but you have to take the best player available. Right now it looks like the top candidates will be (in some order):

Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri
Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego
Pedro Alvarez, 3B, HS
Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 10, 2008 5:06 PM EDT 0 recs

Correction

It's not Gordon Beckham...I got my Beckhams mixed up. The guy on the short list for the top 5 is Tim Beckham, SS, HS.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 10, 2008 5:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

Gordon's status is skyrocketing though isn't it?

The guy has been jacking the ball for Georgia this year.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 10, 2008 5:31 PM EDT up 0 recs

He's definitely climbing up everyone's list

From what I've read, Tim Beckham is still a top 5 guy and Gordon isn't that high yet.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 10, 2008 5:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

I like both a lot

But my only concern is that neither will end up at SS in the big leagues.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 10, 2008 5:44 PM EDT up 0 recs

Alvarez

is at Vandy, not HS

Sign Alex Gordon to a life time contract!!!

by eboston on Apr 11, 2008 9:30 AM EDT up 0 recs

Priority should be best available

Right now, there are a number of guys who would probably be pretty good selections. I think NY Royal has identified them, I'd probably add 1B Justin Smoak of South Carolina and Georgia HS shortstop Tim Beckham (no relation to Gordon).

I'd probably rank em:

Crow
Smoak
G. Beckham
Alvarez
Matusz
T. Beckham

But its really hard to say right now. They all look really good. Also HS pitcher Tim Melville (from St. Louis), HS 1B Eric Hosmer and Miami 1B Yolando Alonso are high on people's lists.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 10, 2008 5:16 PM EDT 0 recs

I take Alvarez

If he's there and don't think about. That guy can mash, plain and simple.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Apr 10, 2008 6:01 PM EDT 0 recs

I tend to agree

I'd put Alvarez above Smoak on my board and I think I'd rather go with the lower risk in him over Beckham. And I don't know that Crow or Matusz are necessarily better than Alvarez. But then the question is, what if Crow and Alvarez go 1-2? The who do you take?

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 10, 2008 6:08 PM EDT up 0 recs

tough...

It's probably between Smoak, T. Beckham, and Matusz for me. Not a believer in G. Beckham, unless we're 100% sure that he can stay at shortstop (which I doubt at this point).

I'd really rather go offense. Smoak has a BEAUTIFUL swing from both sides, but Beckham has been compared to the Upton brothers. I'd probably go with the upside of Beckham, but we're still about 2 months away.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Apr 10, 2008 7:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

I love Smoak

Great frame, great swing, great defense. He's the whole package.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 11, 2008 9:51 AM EDT up 0 recs

Smoak

settle the 1B issue

Sign Alex Gordon to a life time contract!!!

by eboston on Apr 11, 2008 9:31 AM EDT up 0 recs

Alvarez and Hosmer

...are both repped by Scott Boras, and as such may have signability issues (sure, we were able to sign Moustakas at the last minute, but Boras had led GMDM to believe that signing him would be a relatively painless matter). Additionally, Alvarez has missed a lot of time this year because of injury, and I don't know if that will factor into the Royals' decision-making process or not. From what I've read, I doubt Hosmer will go as high as a top-5 pick, but I've heard he can rake like nobody's business.

While I generally agree with Retro and NYRoyal that you have to take best available, I really want to see the Royals take a hitter (preferably Smoak, he is who I'd take if Crow and Alvarez went 1-2).

by DarthYoshi on Apr 10, 2008 9:55 PM EDT 0 recs

smoak or beckham for me at this point

This space intentionally left blank.

by marbotty on Apr 11, 2008 3:58 AM EDT 0 recs

Aaron Crow's mechanics

Both drivelinemechanics.com (the guy who did the Greinke and Soria pitching analysis recently) and saberscouting.com hate Crow's mechanics. Given that, and the fact that college pitchers have the highest injury risk of any kind of draftee, I'd be very wary of drafting him #3.

You can find the drivelinemechanics piece here.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 11, 2008 4:13 PM EDT 0 recs

And

Saberscouting's piece on Crow's mechanics here.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 11, 2008 4:15 PM EDT up 0 recs

Saberscouting doesn't hate his mechanics

They identified a minor flaw and said it probably wasn't that big a deal.

So what are the side effects of this type of move? Elbow soreness and eventually, most likely, Tommy John surgery. This is by no means a death sentence (as mentioned above) because TJ has a a great track record of full recovery and many young pitchers get it and come back throwing harder, like the elbow joint was tightened up like a rubber band (granted the full process takes at least 2 years). Given the rest of his mechanics and stuff, this basically makes him A.J. Burnett, and if A.J. Burnett was available in the draft, he’d go top 5 easily. And there’s always a chance that Crow is Lincecum-like in his ability to not get injured when most people think he should, and won’t have any real problems.

Can he correct it? He can, but like most pitchers that have come this far, to the verge of the major leagues, with a certain arm motion, it might cause more problems to change his arm stroke than to just leave it how it is and hope he doesn’t run into injury problems. Plus, in general it isn’t very smart to alter pitching motions that are "working." So this is, like I said before, a red flag, some funk, whatever you want to call it, and not much more.....

So, the conventional wisdom is that Crow has an okay delivery, clean arm action. I would say great delivery, okay arm action. It’s more a semantic difference, but I wanted to clarify. What that means 20-80 scale with is that he’s great arm action with a red flag, still a little better than a totally clean arm with no aggression, as he may never get hurt and it works for him. Call it 55.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 11, 2008 4:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

"Totally clean arm action."

I don't think it is. Besides, "conventional wisdom" doesn't necessarily say it is; Saber-Scouting follows the tenets of Paul Nyman, who isn't a mainstream pitching analyst/coach. He just happens to be who Carlos Gomez (the father of Internet video analysis), Hardball Times, and Saber-Scouting embrace.

I realize that Dr. Marshall is far from "conventional," but I just thought I'd point that out.

Also, I take serious exception with the view that Ulnar Collateral Ligament surgery has a "great track record of full recovery." Furthermore, the mention of pitchers coming back throwing harder has everything to do with the fact that they were slowly injuring themselves before and now they have a fresh tendon in there that will eventually rupture as well if they continue on with the same mechanics. That type of opinion is reckless and seriously endangers the youth pitchers of our nation.

Lastly, Crow is NOT Lincecum. Lincecum has excellent mechanics, however "unorthodox" they seem. Crow does not.

http://www.drivelinemechanics.com - An unconventional look at baseball video analysis.

by Driveline Mechanics on Apr 12, 2008 5:29 AM EDT up 0 recs

Just to be clear

Those weren't my words, that was the words of "Saberscouting." I'm not really taking a side, I think there is a concern with his arm action, I'm just not sure how great of a concern that is.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 12, 2008 1:20 PM EDT up 0 recs

Another decent draft blog

http://21nunder.blogspot.com/

Crow v. Matusz

So here is what we got – Crow is a dominating RHP with two plus pitches (FB and Slider) while Matusz has 3 potential plus pitches. You might have seen that Matusz has 3 plus pitches already. I beg to differ. His FB sitting at 90-91 is not a plus pitch. There are some concerns with his velocity. If teams think Matusz sits at 90-91 as a pro, his draft stock will take a hit. Because he goes from possibly an Eric Bedard (92-94 MPH FB) to a young Jamie Moyer (not bad, but not an ace). There are no questions about Crows velo and his secondary pitches – they are both plus. Maybe the slider plus plus.

However, comparing deliveries, Matusz has the advantage a good bit on Crow. Crow SHOULD throw that hard with his effort delivery. It is not herky jerk per se, but its also not smooth. Matusz’s delivery actually reminds me of Jamie Moyers, nice and smooth – almost melancholy. Matusz is also 6’5. So, it will cause some teams to wonder if he will not actually gain velocity. Matusz doesn’t use a lot of arm speed – he also all legs and leverage (which is a good thing).

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 11, 2008 4:20 PM EDT 0 recs

Crow v. Matusz

Just a look at how their lines match up so far this season. Not that this should be the key factor in who you take, but a perspective none the less:

Crow

7G 7GS 7W 0L 0.69ERA 52.0IP 11BB 67K

Matusz

8G 7GS 6W 1L 1.57ERA 51.2IP 15BB 71K

Neither pitched when Mizzou played USD, in which USD won

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by MileHighKCfan on Apr 11, 2008 5:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

Top 3 of Crow, Alvarez and Tim Beckham

If anyone of those three are on the board, I don't think the Royals can go wrong with them. Alvarez is the consensus best hitter and play either corner or perhaps OF. Aaron Crow is simply the dominant college pitcher - hard thrower, great control and has secondary pitches. Finally, Tim Beckham. Having a top athletic SS would be awesome - just don't think Moustakas will stay at SS due to his build. Top HS prospects can move fast.

Second tier guys would be Smoak and Matusz. Matusz as a LH would be intriguing.

by daveyork on Apr 11, 2008 6:24 PM EDT 0 recs