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Game 13 Overflow Thread

Royalsreview_tiny by royalsreview on in Events Comment 303 comments

I should have known the Battle for Grass Creek would bring out the comments in us all.

Somebody give me a Zack Greinke ERA update.

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0.78

winning records follow good bullpens

by slayor on Apr 15, 2008 12:27 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Top O' The

Order to us.

Let's go, boys, to the toppermost of the poppermost!

by philofthenorth on Apr 15, 2008 12:28 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I can't post in the overflow thread

Will distracted me with breasts.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Apr 15, 2008 12:28 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

R.A. Dickey

knuckleballer who gives up a ton of jacks.

by royaldaddy on Apr 15, 2008 12:28 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

R.A. Dickey

University of Tennessee literally threw this guy's arm off, and he reinvents himself as a knuckler. pretty impressive

True. Blue. Third Place in 2008.

by DC Royal on Apr 15, 2008 12:29 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

DDJ Needs To

Hit the ball farther; just an observation.

Let's go, boys, to the toppermost of the poppermost!

by philofthenorth on Apr 15, 2008 12:29 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You could apply that to many players.

In fact, you know what? You should hit the ball farther. Yeah. Take that.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 12:30 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

K's Are The

Only acceptable result for a pitcher, in 3 pitches preferably.

Let's go, boys, to the toppermost of the poppermost!

by philofthenorth on Apr 15, 2008 12:31 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I remember in high school you didn't have to throw

anything if you wanted to intentionally walk a guy you just told the ump and he put him at first. So the lowest possible number of pitches possible in a high school game is 0. just put a guy on and pick him off.

by TXroyal on Apr 15, 2008 12:34 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wow

R.A. Dickey's back in the bigs. Mariners must have someone hurt?

Oh yeah. BUH-dard.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 12:29 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

and that one guy Putz

winning records follow good bullpens

by slayor on Apr 15, 2008 12:31 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i gotta agree with NY...

don't really wanna see Grienke in the 9th

by royalsreview on Apr 15, 2008 12:30 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah

Not at 94. 90, 92, I'd have been okay with.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Apr 15, 2008 12:30 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I would want him out

period. We have Soria for a reason: so there's no drop off when we go to the 'pen after a great SP performance.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 12:32 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Maybe he won't

Perhaps I am underestimating Hillman.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 12:30 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

fun fact!

Yabuta is Mr. January in the calendar I bought this weekend!

Boyfriend of the Year 2008: It's gonna be big!

by loyal2theroyals on Apr 15, 2008 12:32 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

96, solid eight innings, one of the best relievers in the league set to go...pat Zack on the back and give the ball to the pen.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 12:31 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

another day...

another game without six runs... that's ok, though, i will take eight wins. hooray eight wins!!!

by blue bandwagon on Apr 15, 2008 12:32 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This team is a failure

Can't even score 6 runs!

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Apr 15, 2008 12:32 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If I change my name

to R.A. Dickey, can I pitch in the majors, too?

by bluenm on Apr 15, 2008 12:32 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Two CG's In

A row would be epic.

Let's go, boys, to the toppermost of the poppermost!

by philofthenorth on Apr 15, 2008 12:32 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Or pointless

as it would be in this case

Disclaimer: Comments may not be suitable for young children or women who are pregnant, or women who think they may be pregnant. Side effects could include nausea, dizziness, or yelling at the monitor in disbelief.

by MileHighKCfan on Apr 15, 2008 12:33 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Rany J. would say epically stupid

Or at least a little stupid

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 12:33 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Rany's on a high right now

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 12:34 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

11 safeties tonight

swatting the ball.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 12:33 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And Buck walked

hells yeah, we've turned a corner.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 12:33 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Pray for a quick inning

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 12:33 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

hasn't happened since 2000

hmmm...

Boyfriend of the Year 2008: It's gonna be big!

by loyal2theroyals on Apr 15, 2008 12:33 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

"So, Bannister can pitch 9, but I can't"

Greinke's thoughts if he's pulled. Bank it. Not saying it's right, just saying that's what's going through his mind.

by royaldaddy on Apr 15, 2008 12:34 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Greinke, like Banny, as with everyone on this team

is a professional and should be able to understand if he's yanked here. Even if he does feel resentment--and you ARE guessing he is--it would be a little silly to speculate too much about the impact of that.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 12:35 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not a guess

I'd bet a year's salary on it.

by royaldaddy on Apr 15, 2008 12:36 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

hmmm...

greinke still out there... interesting.

by blue bandwagon on Apr 15, 2008 12:34 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Again with the "stupid"?

Where is all this research that talks about how damaging 110 pitches is?

by billexgordler on Apr 15, 2008 12:34 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No, it's quite published

See below

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 12:36 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

See yesterday's GameThread for my correction of NYRoyal's misreading of the research.

by 2X2L on Apr 15, 2008 12:38 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

On BP and in at least one of their books

Multiple articles by Rany J. and Keith Woolner

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 12:35 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Closing your eyes doesn't change reality

I could give you the page number in the book if you'd like.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 12:36 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We went over this yesterday. You read it wrong.

by 2X2L on Apr 15, 2008 12:37 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yeah, when they said "moderate risk" for 110-119 pitches, they meant...what?

When they talked about RA increasing after such an outing, they meant what?

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 12:38 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You already know; we talked about this yesterday. They use the phrase "moderate risk" in connection with a 1.15% increase in runs allowed over the next 3 weeks. Gee, if Hillman does this every game, that will amount to 7 or 8 runs over the course of the entire year.

by 2X2L on Apr 15, 2008 12:42 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Again, your beef is with Rany and Woolner, not me

Take it up with him. But don't pretend you are reading their research correctly.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 12:43 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Very pretentious of you to claim that because I disagree with your reading of the research, I must disagree with the author of it. Please stop.

by 2X2L on Apr 15, 2008 12:46 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

They call it "moderate risk" also, Rany has said that Greinke was left out too long in his first two starts

So clearly he thinks unnecessary pitches over 100 is a bad idea. And yet you think you are reading him correctly. When he says moderate risk, he apparently really means no risk...right? When he says Greinke was left in too long, he actually means there is absolutely no problem with leaving him in that long...right?

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 12:48 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We talked about Rany's comments yesterday also, and I made my point in that conversation. No need to go back over that ground, since you are incapable of taking an opposing position seriously.

by 2X2L on Apr 15, 2008 12:50 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I take it seriously. You just ignore the fact that Rany and Woolner clearly disagree with you

When they say "black", you say the actually mean "white" and you are the one who is interpreting it correctly.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 12:51 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Look, if you want to agree blindly with a label of "moderate" for a measured effect that is actually down in the noise, that's fine. But I don't have to.

by 2X2L on Apr 15, 2008 12:53 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That's cool. You are certainly entitled to your opinion.

just don't pretend that you are agreeing with Rany and Woolner, two guys who know more about pitcher use/abuse than either of us.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 12:54 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

By the way, you also misread Rany's comments on Greinke's first start, in which he is clearly talking more about stress level, with Greinke having pitched quite a lot out of the stretch, and much less about pitch count.


I was surprised to see Greinke take the mound in the seventh; he had only thrown 88 pitches to that point, but given that he was working from the stretch all game, he had more wear on his arm than his pitch count would suggest, and it was the first start of the season, and it was a cold day. He gave up the homer to Inge, then got out of the inning when Grudzielanek climbed the latter to snag Polanco's liner - it was pretty obvious he was gassed. I don't want to make too much of this; the notion that we would question a manager for letting his starter throw 99 pitches would have been laughable even five years ago. But I think it's something to file away for later in the season, to see whether Hillman brought one of the bad ideas back with him from Japan.

by 2X2L on Apr 15, 2008 1:00 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I didn't misread anything when I said that Rany...

...said after his second start that Hillman left him in for an inning too long for the second straight time. Clearly the first was about more than pitch count (99). The second had a lot to do with the pitch count (107) as he cited the number.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 1:02 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Rany: Rain. Cold. Ain't it great that 107 pitches under those conditions is "about the worst a manager is allowed to do" these days.

You: 107 pitches is too many.

Me: Not what he said.

by 2X2L on Apr 15, 2008 1:05 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So he put 107 pitches in there...but thought it was irrelevant?

Please. I'm done. If you want the last word on this tonight, you've got it. Hopefully Rany will speak to this issue soon. Given all that he's written on this, his opinion should be clear to everyone. But if you work really, really hard, you can skew it into something else.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 1:07 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

"Moderate Risk"?

This is from Woolner's article:

Log(PAP) Category Pitch Range Risk of Short-term Decline
--- I 0-100 Virtually none
<=2 II 101-109 Minimal Risk
3 III 110-121 Moderate Risk
4-4.5 IV 122-132 Significant Risk
4.5-5 V 133+ High Risk

by billexgordler on Apr 15, 2008 12:53 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We were talking about 110 pitches, right?

You asked for where it says 110 pitches are a negative. There you go.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 12:54 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well done!! You got me!!!

Excellent work, counselor!!

Anyway, Greinke added a grand total of Minimal Risk to his season total of Minimal Risk. That's 2x Minimal Risk that he's tallied.

by billexgordler on Apr 15, 2008 12:57 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We were talking about Banny's outing yesterday, which falls into their "moderate" category.

But the point about the labels is that they are entirely arbitrary. You might as well, as I suggested earlier, start with "worrisome" and work your way to "catastrophic". Those would be just as valid.

by 2X2L on Apr 15, 2008 12:55 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

is there any correlation with pitcher *injury*

as opposed to just a small increase in ERA?

actually, a 1.15% increase seems pretty miniscule. on a 5 ERA, that's up to 5.05 or so.

but what's the injury risk?

by Sean O Se on Apr 15, 2008 1:03 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Based on the published research, it's not possible to quantify it. They found there was a correlation between high pitch counts and injury risk, but of course the effect was measured over much longer periods than just one start, or a few starts. And the authors readily admit that "not all pitchers have the same injury risk".

by 2X2L on Apr 15, 2008 1:19 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes,

but you have to start somewhere, yes? Neither NYRoyal or I are arguing that Zack's arm will fall off tomorrow. It's a matter of long term effects.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 1:21 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes, you have to start somewhere. But the research to date suggests that you and NYRoyal are starting at too low a threshold.

by 2X2L on Apr 15, 2008 9:35 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

wrong.

they've never mentioned 110 as dangerous. not even in april. not even in back to back starts.

by billexgordler on Apr 15, 2008 12:36 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Uh yeah, they did.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 12:36 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's not so much that, billex

so much as the possibility of Hillman getting into the habit of using Greinke that way. 100+ pitches is okay, but it'd better to avoid that with a young pitcher on back-to-back starts.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 12:43 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Why take on unnecessary risk?

you shouldn't

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 12:44 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

so why not bench gordon for callaspo late in blowouts?

gordon could take another ball to the schnoz and be out a month! if greinke were throwing 120 pitches i'd be with you, but 107 pitches has shown to add "Minimal Risk" (Woolner's words, not mine). This is not something worth getting upset about. If he were throwing 120 pitch outings back to back I'd be right there with you. But Zack's been below the acceptable risk threshold based on what I know about this stuff...

by billexgordler on Apr 15, 2008 12:49 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not the same thing,

a random event--such as a ball to the nose--isn't the same as risking a pitcher's arm when there's research done that shows you can avoid the risk a lot of the time.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 1:22 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Have you even read the articles referred to?

You guys are making some bold-and-barren arguments here.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 12:37 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think you'll find my discussion of it rather more complete than otherwise. That is, unless you have an axe to grind.

by 2X2L on Apr 15, 2008 12:43 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

there are other risks too

like getting hit with a ball, slipping off the mound, etc.

by royalsreview on Apr 15, 2008 12:36 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I Do That

Every day to eliminate the possibilities.

Let's go, boys, to the toppermost of the poppermost!

by philofthenorth on Apr 15, 2008 12:44 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Back to greinke

winning records follow good bullpens

by slayor on Apr 15, 2008 12:34 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Greinke's velocity is down

89 mph on the fastball. maybe deliberate, maybe not

True. Blue. Third Place in 2008.

by DC Royal on Apr 15, 2008 12:34 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Maybe he was saving the 95 for strike 3.

by 2X2L on Apr 15, 2008 12:36 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

K

Let's go, boys, to the toppermost of the poppermost!

by philofthenorth on Apr 15, 2008 12:35 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

greinke wanted to go last wednesday

not saying that lugging him out there again is right, just saying that he's confident about him being out there, so. i dunno.

this is loyal2, standing by her man.

Boyfriend of the Year 2008: It's gonna be big!

by loyal2theroyals on Apr 15, 2008 12:35 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Jesus, 96 on that last pitch

winning records follow good bullpens

by slayor on Apr 15, 2008 12:36 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Raul Is The

Last victim. Wird.

Let's go, boys, to the toppermost of the poppermost!

by philofthenorth on Apr 15, 2008 12:36 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

TPJ...

finishes the game... justice is served.

by blue bandwagon on Apr 15, 2008 12:37 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Greinke is such an effing badass

THat high fast ball was to get a strike out.

winning records follow good bullpens

by slayor on Apr 15, 2008 12:37 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Very nice

Zack looks happy

True. Blue. Third Place in 2008.

by DC Royal on Apr 15, 2008 12:37 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We'd be awesome if we released Guillen now

it would free up playing time for mitch maier and shane costa

True. Blue. Third Place in 2008.

by DC Royal on Apr 15, 2008 12:39 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So they could OPS 600 each?

Guillen's upside--once he gets going--is comfortably above anything we've ever seen or are likely to get from Costa or Maier, much as I might root for those guys.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 12:42 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Seriously though, throwing 96 in the 9th inning...

Talk about that shit on baseball tonight.

winning records follow good bullpens

by slayor on Apr 15, 2008 12:38 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i thought NYRoyal's estimates that

even if banny and greinke relapsed, we'd still improve in team ERA because of getting rid of deadweight. but if meche, banny and greinke stay at last year's numbers, what happens? this could be like the 3rd of 4th best pitching team in the AL, given any improvement in the back rotation.

by Sean O Se on Apr 15, 2008 12:38 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i meant

i liked NYRoyal's estimates.

by Sean O Se on Apr 15, 2008 12:38 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i guess it makes sense...

but you can ban people? Ever done it? Story time!

by stuckinstl12 on Apr 15, 2008 12:41 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Joel was fun

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 12:41 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He has.

He's like Gil Meche: an All-American Badass.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 12:41 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

do you ever smile, RR?

do you pose for photobooth pictures, five in a row looking exactly the same?

by Sean O Se on Apr 15, 2008 12:42 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

whatever happened to the

three-in-a-row mugshots of pitchers? it seems like it's been a while.

by Sean O Se on Apr 15, 2008 12:48 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Two hours and 26 minutes to a finish

wow. hard to believe we scored 5 runs in that time

True. Blue. Third Place in 2008.

by DC Royal on Apr 15, 2008 12:38 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We Are An

Offensive juggernaut.

Let's go, boys, to the toppermost of the poppermost!

by philofthenorth on Apr 15, 2008 12:42 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

BEAUTIFUL

Nice job zack damn i love this rotation

I love life. Life = Royals

by focs on Apr 15, 2008 12:38 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i officially love FSN

holy shit...post game, yes.

Boyfriend of the Year 2008: It's gonna be big!

by loyal2theroyals on Apr 15, 2008 12:39 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good win

frustrating that someone thought 107 pitches was necessary, especially with Soria rested. On the whole, a great game for the Royals though. Good to see Guillen with a couple hits.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 12:39 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

no worries, as long as they are careful next time out

throwing a ton of pitches is working out well for CC Sabathia... huh

by royalsreview on Apr 15, 2008 12:40 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That's A Whole

Lotta Wyoming mid-riff.

Let's go, boys, to the toppermost of the poppermost!

by philofthenorth on Apr 15, 2008 12:45 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Never really thought of Wyoming

as a hottie school. :P

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 12:46 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Night all, sleep tight and dream of Royals victories

Disclaimer: Comments may not be suitable for young children or women who are pregnant, or women who think they may be pregnant. Side effects could include nausea, dizziness, or yelling at the monitor in disbelief.

by MileHighKCfan on Apr 15, 2008 12:40 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

107 Pitches

For ZG.

Let's go, boys, to the toppermost of the poppermost!

by philofthenorth on Apr 15, 2008 12:41 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I like the CG

It's a confidence booster. It's 107 pitches, not 130. Good greif Charlie Brown.

by royaldaddy on Apr 15, 2008 12:41 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Rany thought Greinke was left in unnecessarily and unwisely long in his prior two starts

...where he threw 99 and 107 pitches. Now 107 pitches in this game too. Rany won't be happy.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 12:41 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Screw Rany

I just want domination!!!

Disclaimer: Comments may not be suitable for young children or women who are pregnant, or women who think they may be pregnant. Side effects could include nausea, dizziness, or yelling at the monitor in disbelief.

by MileHighKCfan on Apr 15, 2008 12:42 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Screw Soria

He sucks!!!

Disclaimer: Comments may not be suitable for young children or women who are pregnant, or women who think they may be pregnant. Side effects could include nausea, dizziness, or yelling at the monitor in disbelief.

by MileHighKCfan on Apr 15, 2008 12:43 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Honestly, who gives a damn

It's under 110 pitches and he's not going to do it every outing. Can you imagine how much confidence Zack has to have right now? If the game is truly 90% mental, or whatever BS number and he has head problems, having a game like this has to be fantastic for how he feels. A Zack Greinke that is at peace with himself, comfortable and happy = good pitching Zack Greinke. So if we have to let him throw a CG to build the confidence or whatever for the rest of the season, so be it. He needs to learn what he's truly capable of in the big leagues, and that's shutting down a team for 9 innings.

winning records follow good bullpens

by slayor on Apr 15, 2008 12:44 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think that Greinke, being a professional baseball player,

is quite aware that he can get major league hitters out already, and we don't need to push him to "prove himself" or whatever we'd call it. You disagree?

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 12:45 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

hmmmm

yeah, it's sort of like, you know, uh, completion.

otherwise he gets blueballs.

by Sean O Se on Apr 15, 2008 12:46 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The joke is thinking that he's confident after 9 innings but not after 8

Players lose confidence when a reliever comes in in the 9th inning? Please

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 12:49 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I would bet my life savings that you never played the game

This is a big deal for a player. Seriously, you're a smart guy, but you don't think like a ballplayer at all. Ballplayers don't think about shit like that. Get f'ing real.

by royaldaddy on Apr 15, 2008 12:51 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

it does seem plausible

psychologists call it the salience bias.

even though 9 means nothing, it means everything.

deep, i know.

by Sean O Se on Apr 15, 2008 12:52 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He isn't a high school player

For kids, I'm sure it is important. I played in HS, I'm sure it would have been a big thing for me. He's a professional and has been for years. he isn't suddenly confident after 9 and not after 8. he's not that fragile. His mental/emotional issues have nothing to do with confidence.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 12:52 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It doesn't matter if its high school, Little League

or the friggin' beer league softball team. A player always wants to be the best. If he goes out after 8, Bannister "shows him up". He wouldn't have been totally satisfied with 8. I promise you that.

by royaldaddy on Apr 15, 2008 12:54 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The confidence of a professional, particularly a major leaguer

...doesn't flow with every outing or especially every 9th inning like a little leaguer or high schoolers. these guys are professionals, not immature kids who have played the game for a few years. I'm sure they like to finish their games. But it's not like they don't get confidence from 8 very good innings and suddenly get it from 9.

Pitcher risk from overuse is more important than this nebulous, quesitionable additional confidence from one more inning.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 12:56 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

how can you POSSIBLY say that?

"Pitcher risk from overuse is more important than this nebulous, quesitionable additional confidence from one more inning."

I just find that a very difficult statement to swallow, given the fact that both terms are almost completely unknown. I mean, if even *one* was known...

But it's like dividing by infinity.

by Sean O Se on Apr 15, 2008 1:05 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Read any of the research on pitcher use/abuse?

They quantify the effects of various levels of pitcher abuse. I'll take their research over guessing at the confidence level of one more inning for a professional player anyday.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 1:08 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i'm still stuck on the 1.15% thing.

if it really is that small, then i could easily believe the high of getting a complete game could be more important than a ceteris paribus 1.15% decline.

by Sean O Se on Apr 15, 2008 1:10 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You know what

I’m really getting sick of this elitest crap. We’re just using our high school experience and you….....work for a Major League baseball team, right? You’re so good that nobody can touch you, right? I like you man. I really do. It’s just bullshit comments like that one there that strike me wrong. You’re not the allmighty end-all baseball expert because you read baseball stories. You never look at anything realistically from a players standpoint. I respect and appreciate your smarts when it comes to stats and other things. But, I find it hard to respect you when you make comments trying to belittle people when you are just sitting behind a keyboard yourself. Nobody here is better than the next guy. Like when you made some comments about people who listen to country music being “drunk hillbillies” or whatever. You know nothing about rural people. You live in a big city. Do you see a lot of rural country music fans there? It’s that type of elitest crap that makes you less credible. People have different interests. That’s the point. I played baseball through my freshman year of college, still play amatuer ball, and played well in a Houston Astros tryout camp when I was 20. I see things through a player’s mind. There’s nothing wrong with that. You played in high school, but you like stats and logical thinking and there’s nothing wrong with that either. I learn quite a bit from you guys. My wife and I are total opposites and it couldn’t work out any better. We cover each others faults. That’s what it’s like here. One guy knows something, but another guy knows something else. It works out well. So, don’t belittle other people because your philosophy is different. State your opinion. Some will disagree, but with respect hopefully. I respect your opinion that Zack’s arm might fall off, but I know his confidence is at an all-time high right now because he was able to go the distance and match Bannister’s brilliant performance on Sunday.

by royaldaddy on Apr 15, 2008 11:42 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Speaking as a genuine math guy, I have to say I don’t find him credible on the stats either. A real stats guy would not attach undue significance to PAP’s exponential increase, as it occurs by definition, not by effect.

by 2X2L on Apr 15, 2008 12:23 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Undo significance?

I said it was not a big deal, but a small deal. It’s a concern and the risk (which is very real according to Rany and Woolner) should be avoided where it is easy and safe to do so. You, on the other hand, have contended that it is “not a problem. At all.” There is a difference between a small problem and none at all.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 2:11 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

High school experience
I’m really getting sick of this elitest crap. We’re just using our high school experience and you……..work for a Major League baseball team, right?

That’s not what I’m saying at all. We’re talking here about the psychological effects on a player. And the only experience we (the vast majority of us around here) have is being high school baseball players or less. I think that experience tells us very little about how things like one extra inning affects a major league pitcher.
You’re not the allmighty end-all baseball expert because you read baseball stories.

No, I’m not. I’m must giving my opinions.
Nobody here is better than the next guy. Like when you made some comments about people who listen to country music being "drunk hillbillies" or whatever.

As I attempted to explain, my problem wasn’t using a country music song; it was using that particular song which is about good ol’ boys getting drunk. It wasn’t the image that I preferred for the Royals.
I played baseball through my freshman year of college, still play amatuer ball, and played well in a Houston Astros tryout camp when I was 20. I see things through a player’s mind. There’s nothing wrong with that.

You certainly have more baseball experience than I do. But I can still question your speculation on the effect of various things on the psychology of a guy who has been in pro ball for several years, just as you can question me on stats or any other opinion I share.
but I know his confidence is at an all-time high right now because he was able to go the distance and match Bannister’s brilliant performance on Sunday.

You don’t know, and that’s the point. You think it was a very big deal to him psychologically to go 9 instead of 8. I disagree.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 2:09 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

But there's no proof that this "high"

even exists on a tangible level...

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 1:12 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Also

there has also been some work showing the greater effect of cumulative pitcher overuse/abuse. I don't have it handy, but I think it shows that the number certainly gets bigger after two 107 pitch outings

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 1:12 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not really,

if you don't mind me butting in. There's been a good deal of research done on the effect of the risks of overuse of pitchers on their future performance, Sean. And while some pitchers break the mold, a lot of them have succumbed the next year after a hard workload to pitching somewhat below their "established level" or by encountering an injury. This research has been done, and applied over and over to actual reality.

What I'm arguing--and NYRoyal seems to agree--is that every professional athlete already has the confidence to succeed. Indeed, if an athlete was mentally fragile when it came to competition on a professional level, it's hard to see how they could have become a pro in the first place. If your "sports psyche" is so fragile that it causes you to have serious issues over coming out of a game or having a bad game...well, it seems unlikely you'd have to worry about competing on that level.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 1:10 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i tend to think that the variables you come up with

once you've controlled for everything else are some combination of true randomness, unknown unknowns and "psychology." it's possible that the u-u's and irreducible randomness take up most of the variance; i think it's pretty tough to suggest that a pro athlete has maxed out in confidence and it doesn't matter.

by Sean O Se on Apr 15, 2008 1:12 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm not really following...

but I'm saying that a pro athlete has enough confidence to compete on a pro level, and that assuming otherwise seems silly to me.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 1:14 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I didn't think his problem was confidence anyways.

I thought he had problems with crowds. Seems that people are getting this confused with low confidence. You can have all the confidence in the world but if large crowds bother you it will not matter.

by TXroyal on Apr 15, 2008 1:17 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

But is his confidence really going to change much at all...

After a very good 9 complete as opposed to a very good 8? I really, really don't think so.

I mean, there is I'm sure a confidence difference between a slumping player and one who is performing really well. But we're talking about the tiny difference between 8 good innings and 9 good innings.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 1:14 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

what i mean is this. i have NO idea what effect psychology has. but once you've taken out the major variables like bat speed, hand eye coord, etc, i think there might be a lot of slumps and hot streaks that are explainable by psychology. i'd need some sort of test to basically ask athletes if they feel cool, and see if the results are uncorrelated with their streaks.

by Sean O Se on Apr 15, 2008 1:15 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

you could also say that a pro athlete

has enough bat speed to compete, and assuming otherwise is silly!

they're both flawed args.:)

as for 8 vs 9: again, salience. walking off the mound a winner.

haven't you every seen american in paris? the composer has daydreams where he does EVERYthing. he isn't satisfied just doing a little: he wants it all. that's a basic, basic human emotion.

one of the things i write about is actually the problems that arise because of our lack of appreciation of human finitude.:)

by Sean O Se on Apr 15, 2008 1:17 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sean,

if someone has enough bat speed to hit a baseball in the majors, are they not quite capable of competing on some level? If they don't have enough bat speed, they don't make it. They're two very different things, confidence and bat speed.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 1:19 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i'm afraid i think that's somewhat implausible.

admittedly pro athletes are all in the top 99.9% of bat speed. but small differences appear, making X's seem fast (OPS 1000) and Y's seem slow (700). like someone said, an extra double every week leads to a big shift in OPS.

maybe pro athletes are all in the top 99.9% of confidence. but a small shift...

by Sean O Se on Apr 15, 2008 1:24 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't think confidence

is a determinant variable when it comes to pro athlete performance, because I think they're all high enough. I do think bat speed is. That's what we disagree on.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 1:26 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ehh...

Then the thing is, we disagree fundamentally about what causes streaks, and we're quite unlikely to change each other's minds about it.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 1:18 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Random chance causes streaks.

Psychology has nothing to do with "hot" streaks continuing; they end by random chance.

I think it does have to do with cold streaks continuing, as players start to press when they realize they're in a slump. They'll eventually come out of it -- again, by random chance -- at which point psychology may come into play in returning to the norm (no longer pressing, "feeling good", and therefore performing as expected).

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Apr 15, 2008 1:20 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

for the most part, I agree with NHZ here

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 1:21 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i don't actually have an opinion about what causes streaks.

i just think there are two possibilities: fundamentally random things (like fluctuations in how quickly neurons fire due to quantum randomness), and other variables we don't do a good job explaining, like confidence.

i really don't know which is which. if sports psychologists show there's no correlation between typical measures of psychological happiness and good performance, that'd convince me one variable needs to be knocked out.

until then, i am open-minded about whether 1.15% worse or a happy athlete is more important.:)

by Sean O Se on Apr 15, 2008 1:22 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Long story short

I value measurable phenomena that we know is real over our guesses at the psychology of professional baseball players.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 1:23 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

We're not disagreeing much. What can we argue about? :P

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 1:25 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I've been arguing with just about everyone else

I'm nearly argued out.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 1:25 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

what???

that must be too short.

lots of things are measurable that are surprising. if there *were* a correlation between any typical happiness index and up-down streaks, it'd be interesting, and plausible.

but until it's studied, it is in fact a *lack* of scientific objectivity to say that streaks are random rather than caused by confidence.

i confess i'm surprised: your short paragraph, again, is too short by far.

by Sean O Se on Apr 15, 2008 1:26 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The problem with that

is that psychology does come into play. These are not robots. I'm sure you've had days when you went into work and you just could not focus on what you were doing to the best level.

The argument is completely valid when it comes to "clutch hitting" and "performing well under pressure" and all the other bullshit that talking heads like to babble about. It's not when it comes to inability to perform, and since the numbers cannot measure that, you cannot depend on the numbers to tell you what that effect is or is not.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Apr 15, 2008 1:26 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's not just that

"1.15%" number that worries me, you understand. I'm not jumping at shadows. It's the higher possibility of injury that could result if Hillman suddenly decides that Greinke, who has never been a workhorse at any level, is. And I've written extensively on the idea that I think Greinke's performance this year and going forward is a huge factor in the team's future.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 1:24 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There are total innings in the season to consider too

there is a fairly well established 30% rule that says it is dangerous to give a pitcher more than 30% more innings this year than in the prior year. Pushing him the extra, unnecessary inning multiple times increases the chance that he's overworked for the year.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 1:27 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

That's a good point we've failed to mention.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Apr 15, 2008 1:28 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+2

most importantly, there's a big rule that says that teams with big win% gains usually relapse.

i hope we overcome that rule of thumb using quantum fluctuations.:)

good night all!

congrats to us, at 8-5.:)

by Sean O Se on Apr 15, 2008 1:29 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I know of that, as well.

More innings = more pitches, more risk.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 1:29 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Maybe true, maybe not.

I doubt it's true in the case of a pro athlete. Even if it is, though, I don't think it has all that much effect on anything tangible.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 12:59 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Also high school coaches rarely

go with a pitch count. They go by how much you are laboring through hitters. Just wondering what is a good cut off? Most say 110 and if thats so he was under it. But if you count every pitch thrown today I bet its around 225-250 (this includes warm-up before game and before each inning).

by TXroyal on Apr 15, 2008 12:57 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Warm-up pitches are not the same

as max-effort-actually-in-the-game-trying-to-get-someone-out-for-heaven's-sake-pitches, I'd argue....

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 12:58 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You throw them just as hard.

Might not have the same pressure but you use the same effort.

by TXroyal on Apr 15, 2008 12:59 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Right,

but 110 pitches in the game should take into account that you've warmed up.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 1:01 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

When anyone (including researchers/analysts) talk about the pitch count

...it is understood that the pitcher has thrown X pitches plus a number of warmup pitches.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 1:03 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 1:00 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wait

This may be a valid point, although it's a point for you. 110 pitches in seven innings is less work than 110 in nine.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Apr 15, 2008 1:00 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

very true

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 1:03 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And length of some of the innings pitched is relevant too

But harder to quantify the effect

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 1:04 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

As is the break between

see all the stuff written about how you shouldn't put someone back in after a rain delay.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 1:04 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It is harder to quantify I agree

I would rather some on throw 9 pitches a inning and go 12 inning then someone throw 35+ pitches for 2 inning. After a certain point your arm tires and then you start getting a little off mechanically. That is how injuries happen.

by TXroyal on Apr 15, 2008 1:06 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thats what I was trying to point out.

I was just trying to point out for others that 110 is not the actual number of pitches thrown. I agree that going much over 110 is hard on the arm. But also think that number can be changed from person to person but it is a good general rule.

by TXroyal on Apr 15, 2008 1:04 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Of course

there are some pitchers who establish themselves as somewhat immune to any lingering effect of high pitch counts, just not many. As you say it varies, but 100 pitches is a good cutoff to stay below after a particularly lengthy start.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 1:06 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He might be more confident

But his arm will be jelly in August if we aren't careful

by Dubya on Apr 15, 2008 12:47 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i'll take a greinke

instead....

Boyfriend of the Year 2008: It's gonna be big!

by loyal2theroyals on Apr 15, 2008 12:43 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

is getting a greinke

like going platinum? 1000 comments sold?

by Sean O Se on Apr 15, 2008 12:45 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i meant to reply to a different comment

the one just above it. kinda hinting at him to get rid of that male reader bias ;)

Boyfriend of the Year 2008: It's gonna be big!

by loyal2theroyals on Apr 15, 2008 12:47 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm On My

Way to personally kick their asses.

Let's go, boys, to the toppermost of the poppermost!

by philofthenorth on Apr 15, 2008 12:46 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Everyone get here EARLY tomorrow!

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 12:46 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

where is nasty royals cheerleader?

i'll take her over the K Crew any day.

Boyfriend of the Year 2008: It's gonna be big!

by loyal2theroyals on Apr 15, 2008 12:42 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Nasty Royals Cheerleader Lady Tours the Far West


Sorry I'm late. I was at the "Goose Creek Abandons Itself to the Royals" parade. Good times.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Apr 15, 2008 1:33 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Back in my day

we used to throw 150 pitches. On back to back days

by Dubya on Apr 15, 2008 12:42 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Banny + Zachary

6-0, 0.80 ERA.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Apr 15, 2008 12:43 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

APS took a hit tonight

It's up to .948

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Apr 15, 2008 12:47 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh wait

I was calculating Banny+TPJ's APS. Zack+TPJ gives us a blistering .838 APS!

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Apr 15, 2008 12:49 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

you should make sure you write

APS(c) each time.

if you make it obvious it's copyrighted, you can claim extra damages or something. or maybe it's a patent. or a chihuahua.

by Sean O Se on Apr 15, 2008 12:51 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i guess i can do it instead, will

Oh Luke Hocheavar...giving out free tickets to the gun show.

Boyfriend of the Year 2008: It's gonna be big!

by loyal2theroyals on Apr 15, 2008 12:48 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

M's Studio Folk

Just played the Sabes card. Call me in 10 years.

Let's go, boys, to the toppermost of the poppermost!

by philofthenorth on Apr 15, 2008 12:48 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yay Royals.

thougth i'd contribute.

Don't Stop Believing!

by KC Chris on Apr 15, 2008 12:51 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

BBTN giving Grienke some love

'it's almost like I'm bored...we'll see if I can throw a ball to get you out'

because...he's nasty ;)

Boyfriend of the Year 2008: It's gonna be big!

by loyal2theroyals on Apr 15, 2008 12:52 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

and on an off topic note...go jazz!

Boyfriend of the Year 2008: It's gonna be big!

by loyal2theroyals on Apr 15, 2008 12:55 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Enough about pitch counts.

I predict an offensive outburst tomorrow, with a bad starting pitcher and a bad bullpen cued up.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Apr 15, 2008 12:57 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yay Football Scores!

Boo good baseball!

Let's go, boys, to the toppermost of the poppermost!

by philofthenorth on Apr 15, 2008 12:59 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

YAY TEAHEN!

#1 WEB GEM TONIGHT!!!

Boyfriend of the Year 2008: It's gonna be big!

by loyal2theroyals on Apr 15, 2008 12:57 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

so who will win the BOD?

a toughie

This space intentionally left blank.

by marbotty on Apr 15, 2008 12:57 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

hmmm, should I do this tonight....

or let the anticipation build?

Boyfriend of the Year 2008: It's gonna be big!

by loyal2theroyals on Apr 15, 2008 12:58 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh, like you're going to dis your boyfriend.

Buck Showalter just said Zack's outing was the most impressive thing of the day.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Apr 15, 2008 12:59 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

thank you. i had no idea who the guy in the green tie was xDDD

am v. proud of my boy. but...i'll have to go through my stats like i always do ;)

Boyfriend of the Year 2008: It's gonna be big!

by loyal2theroyals on Apr 15, 2008 1:00 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

and someone said that greinke's outing was the best of the night

we're...getting recognized...what is this?

Guys, who switched out that East Coast bias???

Boyfriend of the Year 2008: It's gonna be big!

by loyal2theroyals on Apr 15, 2008 12:59 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yeah, that's who i meant XDD

I obviously fail when it comes to recognizing people :[

Boyfriend of the Year 2008: It's gonna be big!

by loyal2theroyals on Apr 15, 2008 1:00 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Zack is fine

107 no stress pitches? That is fine. Just fine.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Apr 15, 2008 12:59 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

"no stress"

I'm not saying, contrary to what some may believe, that a relatively high pitch count in one game is something to worry about. It's if it becomes a trend going forward that I'll be worried, since Greinke is still young enough that he has a higher risk of injury, IMO, than an older pitcher with a more set idea of his endurance.

"No stress," however, makes it seem like he wasn't max effort, trying to get people out. I doubt that's true.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 1:03 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Right

If Gardenhire sent Livan Hernandez out there for 120 pitches every outing, nobody would blink, because Livan's an engine. We don't know what Zack's tolerance level is yet.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Apr 15, 2008 1:05 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

AND now isn't the time to be finding that,

especially since Zack's hardly been a workhorse in the past.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 1:11 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

107 & 110 pitch outings

While they should be avoided when possible, they are not catastrophic. Having pitchers go that long unnecessarily (due to the nature of the lead and the bullpen behind the pitcher) should be avoided. But there are degrees of pitcher abuse. This is near the lower end.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 1:05 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I Am Shocked

Simply shocked.

Let's go, boys, to the toppermost of the poppermost!

by philofthenorth on Apr 15, 2008 1:07 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

No one's saying it's the end of the world, just that it's a trend to watch for.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 15, 2008 1:12 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Indeed, one thing left out of the discussion:

If Trey consistently lets Zack throw 105-110 pitches, it's likely to be a good thing; Rany has said in the past that letting a pitcher exceed an established workload is worse than exceeding an "arbitrary" number. If he's letting him go 110 a game, the real problems will arise if he lets him go 120+.

Now, that's not to say that we even know that "107" is a good number for Zack, but if it is... then this isn't a problem at all.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Apr 15, 2008 1:13 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My real concern is that I don't think Hillman is worried about pitch counts

Someone said that in a pregame interview, he said he was ok with a pitcher going 130 if he "felt good" and was pitching well.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 1:15 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

After 3 starts apiece, Meche is averaging 98 pitches per start with a maximum of 108, Bannister 98 and 111, Greinke 104 1/3 and 107.

None of these guys are in the top 20 across MLB for STRESS (total PAP / tot no. pitches thrown), which is the category that was correlated by Woolner with injury risk.

Hillman showed great judgment when pulling Bannister after 5 innings against the Yankees at 97 pitches, in a game in which he was forced to endure a 42-pitch inning due in part to creative umpiring.

If you want to worry, you can certainly worry that the results the pitchers have achieved so far are unsustainable, and the hitting might not be enough for them to keep winning as frequently once the pitching comes back to earth. But worrying about the pitch counts to date? Your choice, of course, but it’s not supported by data.

by 2X2L on Apr 15, 2008 10:30 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's not supported by your unique interpretation of the data

It is supported by Rany and Woolner’s interpretation of the data.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 2:13 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The data show that for a single start of the length of Banny’s or Greinke’s this week, there is no measurable deleterious effect on subsequent performance, and this has been demonstrated twice, first by scaling the measured effect down to a single start and then by scaling it up to an entire season in which the starter throws over 100 pitches in every game. There is no “interpretation” here: what the numbers say is very clear.

I’ve been hoping you would do some analysis of your own, if only test what I’ve presented, but unfortunately this has not occurred. So, we have concluded with yet another impasse between us.

For those interested in a critical look at the PAP3 method, there is a well-reasoned view that its methods are questionable and its results weak. (Please note that although the linked article dates from 2001 its analysis is in no way out-of-date, as the 2006 BP book does not amend the method.)

by 2X2L on Apr 15, 2008 7:15 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

there is no measurable deleterious effect on subsequent performance

There is a very measurable increase in RA. It isn’t big, but it is clearly measurable. Can you measure 1.15%? I can. Rany and Woolner did.

At what point does a number become “measurable” to you?

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 15, 2008 7:21 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Can you measure 1.15%?

You ought to recall that we had an earlier exchange about when an increase of 1.15% becomes significant for a counting measure. I just referred to it above. Here’s a link.

Here am I posting anonymously on a baseball blog, with a degree in mathematics from a reputable institution, arguing with a functional innumerate about what a column of percentages mean. This must be what hell is like.

by 2X2L on Apr 15, 2008 7:40 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs