John Bale 2008 predictions

by NYRoyal on Apr 3, 2008 10:33 PM EDT

John Bale is one of the biggest question marks on this team. After a few inconsistent major league seasons as a starter/reliever, Bale went to Japan were he was an effective relief pitcher (with a handful of starts). The Royals brought him in on a 2-year contract and he started the season on the DL. When he actually got to pitch, he did well with a decent ERA (4.05) lots of strikeouts (9.45 K/9) and a few more walks than you'd like (3.83 BB/9). But those stats came from 40 ip, so that doesn't give you much to hang your hat on.

The Royals, desperate for a lefty SP, gave Bale a chance and he shined in spring training. Now he's the Royals #4 SP. So the data eithe small (last season), old (his prior MLB experience) or hard to interpret (Japan). I really don't know what to expect from him. How will he pitch as a starter? Will he be able to stick in the rotation?

Bale's performance is very important. There's good reason to believe that the Royals will get good starts from Meche, Bannister and Greinke. A decent 4th starter could really take this team to the next level...whatever that is.

Poll

Which of the following numbers comes closest to what you think Bale's 2008 ERA will be?

Under 4.00

2 votes

4.00

2 votes

4.10

5 votes

4.20

4 votes

4.30

12 votes

4.40

15 votes

4.50

4 votes

4.60

7 votes

4.70

10 votes

4.80

5 votes

4.90

3 votes

5.00

2 votes

5.10

0 votes

5.20

2 votes

5.30

0 votes

5.40

0 votes

5.50

0 votes

More than 5.50

1 votes

74 votes | Poll has closed

1 recs | Comment 23 comments

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Comments

I like Bale

I think he'll be an inconsistent yet effective pitcher. He'll have his dominant games and his crap games. I'm thinking somewhere in the mid-4's.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Apr 3, 2008 11:00 PM EDT 0 recs

I agree

but how sweet would it be if he pitched really well. Having good pitching is so cool after suffering from crappy pitching for so long.

Success is counted sweetest by those who ne'er succeed. - Emily Dickinson

by buddyball on Apr 3, 2008 11:22 PM EDT 0 recs

I think Bale will surprise a lot of people.

Something like 160-175IP, 4-4.5 ERA, 130K's, 40 BB, 20-25 HR's. He's going to give up a lot of home runs, it's going to happen. He did in Japan, he will here. Question is can he avoid putting runners on base. I think he's going to be effective though, probably lots of 6 IP 5H 2BB 5K 3ER starts.

winning records follow good bullpens

by slayor on Apr 4, 2008 1:28 AM EDT 0 recs

High fours

I just don't see him as an above average starter. He'll be a fine, cheap option as a back of the rotation solution until we replace him with Hooch.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 4, 2008 2:41 AM EDT 0 recs

Hooch Can't Replace

Tomko and Bale.

Let's go, boys, to the toppermost of the poppermost!

by philofthenorth on Apr 4, 2008 7:55 PM EDT up 0 recs

24-1

0.79 ERA... That's how good he is... And on Friday, a legend began...

by blue bandwagon on Apr 4, 2008 2:58 AM EDT 0 recs

Correction: Bale isn't...

...one of the "biggest question marks on the team." If not, then who is? Tomko. Period. ...I picked Bale for a 4.30 ERA. Anything can happen, but I think that Hochevar is the better choice. The only reason the team is waiting to bring him up is service time. If either Bale or Tomko fail miserably (meaning high 4s or 5s in ERA), then Hochevar will be here by late June/early July. - TL

by timlacy on Apr 4, 2008 5:14 AM EDT 0 recs

Hochevar

"I think that Hochevar is the better choice. The only reason the team is waiting to bring him up is service time."

Really? That's the only reason? You're confident that Hochevar is ready to contribute as an average SP in the majors right now? I don't think Dayton Moore thinks that. Hochevar's minor league performance last season was very uneven, even if he was forced to pitch without his slider. He still has some things to work on. Even if his ceiling is a #2 or #3 SP, he's not likely to touch that ceiling in his rookie season. I really like Hochevar as a prospect, but I think he's likely to have a 5+ ERA in his rookie season.

"If either Bale or Tomko fail miserably (meaning high 4s or 5s in ERA)"

That's failing miserably? The average #4 SP in the AL has an ERA roughly in the 4.75-5.25 range. And of course that means the average #5 SP has an ERA over 5.25. I would be very comfortable with our #4 SP having an ERA around 4.80 and our #5 SP having an ERA around 5.00.

When Hochevar gets called up, it will be because they think he's ready to take the next step in his development. It also won't necessarily be to put a pitcher in the rotation who will be better right now. It will because he needs major league innings to develop, so he can be a good SP for the Royals in 2009 and beyond.

Bale is the biggest question mark because he's being counted on a lot more than Tomko. They want Bale to be the #4 SP and pitch in that role all season. Tomko is the #5 SP, which means he'll get skipped in the rotation sometimes and he likely won't start all season, as he'll be the one to move to the pen when Hochevar comes up. Also, Tomko is somewhat less of a question mark because we have a lot of major league innings from which we can evaluate him. Bale has little such data, particularly as a starting pitcher. He's a big unknown.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 4, 2008 10:56 AM EDT up 0 recs

Bale

" They want Bale to be the #4 SP and pitch in that role all season."

I don't think they will hesitate to use him in the pen if he proves he can't cut it as a starter. I don't ever think they've said they expect Bale to start all season.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 4, 2008 11:24 AM EDT up 0 recs

I don't know that they exactly expect it, but they definitely want it

And it's not like there are a whole bunch of good options ready to slot in at #4 SP. Hochevar when he's ready. But if not him, then....Davies? The lack of good, MLB ready options means that Bale probably has a longish leash.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 4, 2008 11:30 AM EDT up 0 recs

They're going to have to bring up Davies at some point

To see what they have. His clock is running and we need to see what we have.

I'm not saying we have a ton of options, but I also don't think the Royals are absolutely counting on Bale to make 30 starts. They have a number of guys they could plug in those last two spots if needed - Bale, Tomko, Davies, Nunez, Hochevar, Soria, Maroth, Duckworth, Hudson, and even possible long shots Nomo, Wright, Lumsden and Rosa.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 4, 2008 12:24 PM EDT up 0 recs

I'm sure Davies, Hochevar and some others will make some starts

But I don't think Bale has a short leash. While there are a number of other options, they aren't particularly good options. Hochevar shouldn't be rushed and the rest of those guys simply aren't that good, or healthy, or they aren't starting pitchers. I think their use of Tomko will be flexible. They'll be willing to move him to the bullpen to make room for Hochevar or Davies. There will likely be some DL stints for guys in the rotation, opening up some starts for guys like Davies. So there is ample room for young guys to get their shots. But I don't think there is enough depth there that that the team would react to a bad month from Bale by pushing him to the bullpen...unless that month was really, really bad (ERA in the high 5's).

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 4, 2008 12:34 PM EDT up 0 recs

I am very optimistic on Bale

He seems to have good command and decent velocity. I expect his strikeout numbers to decline, but he doesn't seem to walk very many, and if he can keep the ball low, he can be very effective.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 4, 2008 11:23 AM EDT 0 recs

Small sample size, but he gave up almost 4 walks per 9 innings last year

I hope that small sample size means that his 3.83 BB/9 is meaningless. I'm just a bit worried about his control. I'm also worried about him not have good enough secondary pitches to be effective the second and third time through the batting order.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 4, 2008 11:31 AM EDT up 0 recs

Well, to paraphrase you

I'll trust Dayton and Trey's judgment.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 4, 2008 12:24 PM EDT up 0 recs

As I have always said, that is one important data point

What they want/need from him is for him to pitch like a decent #4 SP. I think they'll get that. But I think he has enough negatives to keep him from being an average SP.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 4, 2008 12:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

Three basic pitches

Fastball, curve, change. The fastball sits around 90-91 and resembles a cutter at times down and in against right-handers. He mixes a change in to keep hitters honest, but the pitch I like is his breaking ball. At times, the thing looks downright nasty. When his curveball is on, he is generally on. He can get hit hard if he leaves his fastball up (lots of longballs) and he does walk quite a few batters because he's more about location than speeds. I feel that Bale is really going to surprise some people this season. In Surprise, it looked like he was throwing everything down in the zone and had the good curveball working. An ERA between 4.2 and 4.5 would not surprise me with our defense behind him. His K/9 ratio could be the best of the rotation, but his BB/9 very well could be the worst.

by royaldaddy on Apr 4, 2008 12:02 PM EDT 0 recs

I think the slower fastball is a sinker

He throws the fastball primarily to right-handed hitters, but features the sinker against left-handed hitters. Last year, the f/x data had him fastball (58%), curve (24%), change (11%), and sinker (7%) against righties, and sinker (45%), curve (34%), fastball (20%), and change (1%) against lefties.

by Gopherballs on Apr 4, 2008 1:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

What's the average velocity of his 4-seam fastball and his sinker?

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 4, 2008 2:28 PM EDT up 0 recs

91 on the four-seamer and 90 on the two-seamer last year

Those are as a reliever, so he likely loses a couple MPH, which would still put him around average velocity for a left-handed starter. While the speed is pretty close, the pitches showed distinct breaks last year. GameDay's pitch identifier still needs to work out some bugs, so I would ignore its classification for now and just look for different breaks and slightly different speeds (with one primarily thrown to righties and the other primarily thrown to lefties).

by Gopherballs on Apr 4, 2008 3:08 PM EDT up 0 recs