Hackfest
Since this is the silly season, the time when we draw all kinds of absurd conclusions based on data ten times too small to be valuable, let's go ahead an bring up the fact that the Royals are showing dangerous signs of severe hactasticity. Hopefully, this is only a freak stretch, and will be something that passes. Hopefully. A case can be made, however, that between Moore's seeming blind spot regarding OBP and all the pro-Angels talk we heard from the Hillman signing onward, that in fact, this issue won't be going away.
We can break this down all kinds of ways:
- The Royals haven't drawn a walk since Thursday afternoon.
- The Royals haven't drawn a walk against the Twins in two games.
- The last Royal to draw a walk in a Major League, regular season game, was John Buck, in the 6th inning of Game Three.
- Since Buck's epic walk, the Royals have gone 81 straight at bats without accepting a free pass.
- Heading into today's game, the Royals were 12th in the AL in OBP, and tied for last in walks drawn.
- Billy Butler, Alex Gordon and, obviously, Tony Pena Jr. haven't walked yet. Nor have bench players German, Callaspo and Olivo.
- The Royals haven't had their leadoff man draw a walk once this season. In five games neither David DeJesus or Joey Gathright have drawn a walk.
Yes, it's still early, and will continue to be so for weeks, even months. Yes, the Royals have faced some good pitchers. They've also faced Scott Baker and Livan Hernandez and the Tiger bullpen. The question we might as well start thinking about -- because if not, why are we here? -- is can all these things be happening by coincidence? Ross Gload has a career .295 average, but still has a less than ideal .334 career OBP. Not only has Moore traded for him, he's also resigned him through 2009! John Buck can walk a little, but his BA will always be so low that his OBP will always likely be sub .300. His backup? Miguel Olivo and his career .275 (!) OBP. Our stud offensive signing this off-season, Jose Guillen? His career OBP is .325. If, at the coaching level, naturally more patient hitters like Gordon, Butler and Teahen are also being told constantly to "stay aggressive", then suddenly we've got a doomsday scenario. Yes, Hillman said OBP was important for the leadoff man this winter, which was encouraging. But in a reverse way, the quote is also troubling, as OBP is important for everyone, not just whomever is the guy playing the leadoff role.
It isn't just about the lack of walks and walks as an offensive weapon. It's about making outs. To steal a line from Joe Sheehan, outs are the clock. When the Royals made their 27th out today, the game ended, by rule. If this team keeps hacking away, all the singles and random homers and cute little hits and runs won't matter, because the Royals will run out of time before they can generate enough offense to score.
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15 comments
Comments
I'm willing to bet you
that DDJ would have walked today. That still would not have solved the problem, of course, but I feel the need for needless speculation.
Also, I think we're seeing Meche's hangover from last year. He should be fine, I think, in a month or so, but it could be a bit ugly through April for him.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on Apr 5, 2008 7:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Mildly surprising that Butler
hasn't drawn a walk yet, but I wouldn't worry about him changing his plate approach just because of some bad coaching. I'm sure he knows what makes him successful at this level and I doubt the coaches would tinker with him anyway for fear of screwing him up.
"Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me." -Dusty Baker on OBP
by vtcub on Apr 5, 2008 10:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I know what the stats say...
...but I saw Teahen work a walk against Nathan Friday and Gordon work about 3 walks against the Tigers. But instead of being rewarded, each time they were called out on pitches well off the plate. In Detroit we all saw that the strike zone being called when Gordon was up was very different from Sheffield's. In Teahen's case, ball 4 was farther off the plate than ball 3, but for whatever reason, because the pitch was a fastball with less movement than ball 3, because it wasn't as low as ball 3, or because the umpire was rolling with the emotion of the moment, Teahen got punched out.
I don't mean this to be a typical rant about umpiring. I just want to say that after seeing those results I can't really blame them for preferring to take their hacks, as long as they're not swinging at everything they can reach. From what I've seen, only Butler is doing that. Well, I suppose I should qualify that: among the better hitters in the lineup, only Butler is doing that.
by 2X2L on Apr 5, 2008 11:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
maybe we should worry about
butler's baserunning more than his hack-u.
butler chops away
wants to do it all himself
obvious ball four
by Sean O Se on Apr 5, 2008 11:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That Was
Beautiful. man.
Let's go, boys, to the toppermost of the poppermost!
by philofthenorth on Apr 6, 2008 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we once had a slugger named billy
who ran on to second willy-nilly
but he moved like a frog
being chased by a log
and the outfield assist made him look silly.
by Sean O Se on Apr 6, 2008 2:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
plop!!!
and another pile hits the ground. We aren't even done with our second series (we swept the first one) and now we are worried about a hackfest.
Sorry, Will, this wasn't your best work. Unless you were wickedly sarcastic and then it has some possiblities.
Be loyal, Be Brave, Be Free.
by hardyguy on Apr 6, 2008 12:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I hope you are right
someone has to balance out the excessive small-sample praise though, and that can be me
by royalsreview on Apr 6, 2008 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the amazing thing is that we are predicted to have only one hitter above 800 OPS (and that's billy, and just barely--i'm using NYRoyals's external projections). given our obvious and perhaps unchangeable lack of slugging, i would think that 81 PAs without a walk would really worry those who hope that the 800 mark can be flirted with. if you have no power, you need patience. you can make fun of the small sample size, but it stretches back before the twinkies.
more importantly, i really think it is time to lay to rest the "X doesn't mean anything" meme. it made some sense for ST (although it did dampen people's speculative enthusiasm--and such amusements are one reason i come to RR). but worrying about the future is what it means to be a fan. it's like a relationship. some perspective helps, but fear and hope and flowers and make-up sex are important too.:)
by Sean O Se on Apr 6, 2008 2:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely
As we have limited slugging ability, all the more reason batters should be taking pitches and working the count as much as possible.
To what extent can we look to Mike Barnett as a reason for the "hactasticity"? Guys with a reputation for free-swinging aren't going to change their stripes, but I worry when I see guys with somewhat of a track record of being patient hitters hacking away in KC.
by cookierojas73 on Apr 6, 2008 8:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The team needs to work the count better.
I don't see how that's in dispute. It was true last year, and it's still true. We're going to have to bear with them as the younger guys mature.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on Apr 6, 2008 2:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
81 straight at bats is a lot
i think we averaged 3.1 pitches seen today
I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me
by LeoBloom on Apr 6, 2008 12:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Seemed like 2007 all over again.
After the last two Twins games, I thought it was the worst of 2007. 81 ABs without a walk is dreadful for MLB. The Royals make guys like Scott Baker and other average to below average pitchers look great because they don't make him pitch. Pitch counts as low as Baker had is more the hitter than the pitcher.
If KC continues this trend, the offense will struggle in 2008. Hackfest teams don't score many runs especially without much power.
by daveyork on Apr 6, 2008 3:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I commented on this...
...in the 117 post above. I'm absolutely sure that, when a series demands it (i.e. Rays or Rangers), we'll take all the walks that will be given. - TL
by timlacy on Apr 7, 2008 10:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I do think its early to come to any conclusions
And Minnesota is always stingy in giving up walks, and Detroit has a pretty good staff too.
Still, there are few guys in our lineup that are really good patient hitters. DJ and Teahen. Maybe Gordon (perhaps he's too patient?). I do expect this to be a problem all season. Not sure what you can do about it at this point. Its going to take acquiring patient hitters and disposing of light hitting hackers like Rossy.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Apr 7, 2008 3:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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