The Royals have now gone 117straight plate appearances without drawing a walk. The last Royal to...

The Royals have now gone 117straight plate appearances without drawing a walk. The last Royal to draw a walk was John Buck, in the sixth inning of the finale in Detroit.

about 1 year ago royalsreview 33 comments 0 recs |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

I understand the curious...

...nature of this as a statistic, but let's examine it with concrete goals (wins, World Series) in mind.

Rather than ask why aren't we taking more bases on balls, let's look at what we're doing with the rest---meaning strikeouts and balls put into play.

What are our power numbers? How do they compare through six games last year? How many strikeouts do we have? What kinds of pitchers have we faced? Could it be that, because we've expressed an explicit desire for higher OBP, that pitching staffs are actually giving us more strikes to hit? Where do the Twins and Tigers rank, over the past few years, in terms of walks given by their pitching staffs?

I'm asking that we don't fixate on statistics that are only apparently alarming versus those that should truly concern us.

Finally, it seems likely to me that any lineup with Tony Pena, Jr. in it certainly runs the risk of a long BB drought. But, does anyone of us, or anyone in baseball, really think that Butler, Gordon, Buck, Gload, and Guillen aren't going to take a walk when needed?

Although I like taking pot-shots at D. Baker's concern about clogging the bases, taking walks ~can be~ over-rated. Look at Adam Dunn. There are only three options with that guy: walk, hr, and strike out. - TL

by timlacy on Apr 7, 2008 10:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

RR,

do we have anything to put this in context? Such as if the team managed this last year? Just sort of idly wondering while stuck in class...

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Apr 7, 2008 10:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

In fairness

The Twins are notorious for not allowing base on balls.

Then again, we are dead last in the league in walks. We have drawn eight free passes, the same number as Nick Swisher has by himself. We are last in home runs. We are last in OBA.

We can't continue to be near the bottom in those categories and expect success.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 7, 2008 10:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

last year we had 18 bb in our first 6 games against Minn & Detroit

And averaged 2.64 per game on the season in 2007.

This year, we're averaging roughly half -- 1.33. Here's the pitchers we have faced and their career BB allowed/game started:

Kenny Rogers
Career: 1.89
Royals 2008: 3

Jeremy Bonderman
Career: 1.98
Royals 2008 2

Livan Hernandez
Career: 2.34
Royals 2008: 0

Scott Baker
Career: 1.2
Royals 2008: 0

Boof Bonser
Career: 1.8
Royals 2008: 0

What's it mean? I dunno, probably nothing. I realized about halfway through this little exercise I was discounting the bullpens, so this is pretty worthless. It would probably also make more sense to see their individual #'s against KC. (For example, Boof averaged exactly 2 walks a game when pitching against KC. How did the others fare? I don't care, actually,)

Anyway, I'll just chalk this up to small sample size, although with what appears to be a disturbing trend. Let's see how they do over the next five games. We should have a better idea then.

This space intentionally left blank.

by marbotty on Apr 7, 2008 1:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not an accident

The lineup features six hitters who are well below average at taking walks and three hitters who are slightly above average.

2007 BB% (9% is roughly league average):
DeJesus 9.6%
Buck 9.4%
Teahen 9.2%
Butler 7.6%
Gordon 7.0%
Guillen 6.5%
Grudzielanek 4.8%
Gload 4.8%
Pena 1.9% (2nd worst in AL)

The bottom six (Bulter to Pena) are in the bottom third of AL hitters (min. 340 PA) last year. The team, as currently constructed, is just not going to walk very much.

by Gopherballs on Apr 7, 2008 2:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good Info

This is a good way to look at it, I believe. Let me break it down further:

DeJesus, Buck & Teahen - They are above the avg (9%) and in the earlier parts of their careers, so I'm going to assume they are going to stay above league avg. If anything, they should improve slightly.

Butler & Gordon - They are a little below league average and very young. I think we can hope they will improve to league avg or a little below.

Guillen, Grudz & Gload - They are vets so it we should assume they will be stay where they are. Actually, it would be insightful to see if their last 2 years were consistent with their career avg. If so, I think we could safely conclude they will continue to walk at the same rates as they always have.

Pena - He's young so one could hope for improvement, but I think I speak for many of us when I say...his walk rate will not improve appreciably and he won't last as our starting ss.

I don't fight extra players.

by paleblueeyes on Apr 7, 2008 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Since we're overreacting to 6 games worth of stats

Shouldn't we also be celebrating that we apparently have the best pitching in baseball? Apparently this is one of the best pitching staffs in the history of the game. That 2.67 ERA, 7.33 K/9 and 3.4 K/BB is very impressive. "Silly season" is right.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 7, 2008 2:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How do we match up with the Orioles?

We are currently lined up to face Baltimore in the first round of the playoffs.

by Gopherballs on Apr 7, 2008 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, no

We'd have a playoff with the White Sox first, and then the winner would get the Angels. I can't remember whether the loser would get the Orioles, or have a one-gamer against Toronto...

by jonfmorse on Apr 7, 2008 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pesky Blue Jays

by Gopherballs on Apr 7, 2008 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think when the numbers are extreme

and indicative of approach, you can talk about them

you don't go 117 straight by coincidence

I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

by LeoBloom on Apr 7, 2008 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Are they indicative of approach?

We have no idea

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 7, 2008 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

why wouldn't they be

again, i know we're all trying to be skeptical, but seriously, we are talking about plate approach

a good paradigm for rational analysis is to look at process, not results, and i think we're seeing a fairly well defined process here

its not like we're worried about triples rate or something

I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

by LeoBloom on Apr 7, 2008 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because not all walks or the failure to get walks is because of poor approach by the players

Walks happen and fail to happen for a variety of reasons having to do with the pitchers, the hitters and the umpire. When you are looking at an extremely tiny sample size, you have no idea why those walks occurred or didn't occur. You can guess, but that's about all it is.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 7, 2008 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The 6-game tooth gnashing is pretty bizarre

We start out 4-2 with terrific pitching and yet there are already two front page articles about being too aggressive/not taking enough walks.

[singing]
You've got to ac.....centuate the negative
E.....liminate the positive
Latch on to the pessismists
Don't mess with Mister In-Between

You've got to spread worry up to the maximum
Bring joy down to the minimum
Have fear or overreaction
Liable to walk upon the scene
[/singing]

Apologies for the very obscure Bing Crosby song reference. And this is hyperbolic satire, but there is a point here.

I have some suggestions for the title banner:

The Royals are 4-2! We're worried.
Don't tell us what's right, we know something's wrong.
It's always brightest before the dusk.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 7, 2008 3:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Who is tooth gnashing?

We're simply pointing out that this team will have to walk more and be more patient if they want to score more runs. While it would be foolish to overreact and predict doom after six games, its also foolish to rest on our laurels and think the offense can continue this way if we want to win games.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 7, 2008 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think anybody is resting on their laurels and thinking that the offense can continue this way and still win games. I think some people, including myself, think that the BB rate will start to increase and there is no need to make such a big deal out of the lack of BB's so far in 6 games.

Disclaimer: Comments may not be suitable for young children or women who are pregnant, or women who think they may be pregnant. Side effects could include nausea, dizziness, or yelling at the monitor in disbelief.

by MileHighKCfan on Apr 7, 2008 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I Agree

RR - Well stated.

I don't fight extra players.

by paleblueeyes on Apr 7, 2008 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How does a fan rest on his laurels?

Players and teams can rest on their laurels. That phrase doesn't apply to fans. Fans can discuss and analyze their team. They can do so in a balanced way or they can focus on the negative. I'm seeing a lot of the latter.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 7, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fine

Then in my analysis, the walk rate will have to increase their current rate to be successful. The lack of walks and plate discipline was a concern going into the season, and the first week did nothing to dissuade those concerns.

Am I thrilled that we're 4-2? You betcha. It feels awesome. I like the "pitching and defense" attitude of Trey Hillman. But we're going to have to score more runs because we're not going to maintain a 2.67 ERA. And that means being more patient at the plate and drawing more walks. Am I saying they can't improve? No. I'm just saying that it was a concern going into the season, and we're seeing that they haven't improved yet.

Like I said before, its silly to predict doom and gloom after six games, but its also silly to think this team has no flaws.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 7, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This team definitely has flaws

And yes the offense certainly will have to perform better. There is nothing at all wrong with pointing out what is wrong with this team and discussing it at length. But I think we shouldn't use small sample size stats to make these arguments and I think the negative should be balanced somewhat with the positive, or else we're not making an honest appraisal of this team.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 7, 2008 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think its a fair argument

Its a small sample size but its illustrative of a larger trend. This team was 13th in the AL in walks drawn last year, 13th in OBA, and not surprisingly, 13th in runs scored. Their major offensive acquisition has never drawn more than 41 walks in a season. Plate discipline is obviously a concern this season.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 7, 2008 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes it is a concern

Will plate discipline and walk-drawing be better this year? We certainly don't know. I don't know that 6 games provide us with a meaningful red flag. We really don't know if things are going to change much. It was a concern going into the season and it remains a concern, period.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on Apr 7, 2008 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it's safe to say

that if an individual player went 117 plate appearances without a walk, we wouldn't call it small sample size. It's somewhat different looking at the team overall, since the team's only faced a handful of pitchers in there (who, of course, have a lot to do themselves with the lack of walks) whereas an individual player would likely see 2-3 dozen pitchers in accumulating that many PAs, but at the same time the team's failure to stumble into even one free pass is not statistically insignificant.

by jonfmorse on Apr 7, 2008 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs