Game 7 Overflow Thread - Royals lead 5-2
by NHZ on Apr 8, 2008 6:28 PM EDT
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PrintWith my rediscovered story posting power, I hereby dub this the Game 7 Overflow thread. Bannister struggled with horrible umpiring control problems early, but the Royals knocked Hughes out of the box early and lead 5-2 in the bottom of the sixth at the K.
Go Blue!
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Surprised to see them run out Ross for another inning
After coughing up 2 last time.
winning records follow good bullpens
No, it's just you.
Just kidding! Shaky as a bellydancer on speed.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on Apr 8, 2008 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions
What were you teaching today?
Here at KU, classes canceled for the day. I guess there was no reason to fight the inevitable.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
Teahan! Why can't you do that with the bases loaded!
winning records follow good bullpens
If Guillen is suspended and DDJ is still lame,
will KC put DDJ on the DL and bring up Hollins, Costa or Maier?
Guillen against ross: 6 pitches, 2 k's, yuck
winning records follow good bullpens
NHZ/NYRoyal/et al
Gator's combined MILB and MLB stats from last year
D stats were from baseball-reference.com... Not sabermetric - just the lying basics. Sorry, I don't have access or know where to find better. It's kind of like fighting with a blindfold on.
AB: 451
H: 144
BB: 63
K: 60
BA: .319
OBP: ~.402
Alarms:
BB/K in MILB was 2:1
BB:K in MLB was 1:2
Finally coming back to the 'K'!!!! I'm going to be there 7/11/08, vs the SEA Mariners, of course!
by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Apr 8, 2008 6:34 PM EDT reply actions
To quantify:
The D stats I am referring to are in the Gator discussion in the last thread.
Finally coming back to the 'K'!!!! I'm going to be there 7/11/08, vs the SEA Mariners, of course!
by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Apr 8, 2008 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions
The thing is...
that batting average is quite out of line with what's he shown so far at the ML level.
And may I recommend The Hardball Times's stat (what's it called, NYRoyal? I'm braincramping) and BP's FRAA to a lesser extent. That is, in terms of defensive stats off the top of my head.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on Apr 8, 2008 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Thank you for the suggestion
I will check that out
Finally coming back to the 'K'!!!! I'm going to be there 7/11/08, vs the SEA Mariners, of course!
by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Apr 8, 2008 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Oops, didn't mean to post yet
I also wanted to add that that "warning" stat you listed is kind of what I'm talking about. It's harder to draw walks in the majors with little power than in AAA.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on Apr 8, 2008 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Another runner stranded... hard to win when you strand so many
winning records follow good bullpens
Is it just me or is he not earning his paycheck so far.
Tell 'em a hookah smoking caterpillar
Has given you the call. "
But he cannot be benched. When he is benched he throws a hissy fit.
PS - I'm a bit cool towards Guillen personally.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
PPS - We know ;)
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on Apr 8, 2008 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions
how many years in a row
have the yankees started horribly?
and yet, they always end up with 90 wins, min
It's almost like they start off not trying
Get 1/3 way through the season, and are like - oh, shit, we need to win some games. Bam, throw it in to gear, season over.
winning records follow good bullpens
Pray for Joba to get a bad case of food poisoning
and maybe they'll only win 88.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on Apr 8, 2008 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions
The A.B. May
Jingle is the greatest piece of music ever produced.
Let's go, boys, to the toppermost of the poppermost!
I Think It's
The same from the 50's.
Let's go, boys, to the toppermost of the poppermost!
by philofthenorth on Apr 8, 2008 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Mahay again. Hmmm
Yeah, I guess so. Hillman seems to really like the guy
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
He Is An
LHP, and this lineup is full of LHB's.
Let's go, boys, to the toppermost of the poppermost!
by philofthenorth on Apr 8, 2008 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I do like Gobble plenty well myself.
But Mahay has been getting the job done so no complaints. Really just an observation.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
"Right, coach!" :P
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on Apr 8, 2008 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I have tailgated in 30 below weather in Minn.
Tell 'em a hookah smoking caterpillar
Has given you the call. "
Just a trend I have noticed with the pen
Hillman will go with a couple innings with the bullpen guys. Did it with Tomko, Nunez and now Mahay. The overspecialization of the bullpen drives me crazy with some teams.
If he thinks somebody is pitching well, he's not afraid to let them keep pitching
winning records follow good bullpens
Oh snap, nice pitch to Abreu
winning records follow good bullpens
Here comes Ramirez... let's hope he has it
winning records follow good bullpens
Damn! You post one honest request and now it is splashed all over your favorite blog!
Don't judge me guys! I have hair issues!
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
Oh ramon ramirez
From obscurity to pitching to A-rod on Opening Day, in the span of 2 weeks.
winning records follow good bullpens
Why was Colorado so eager to dump him?
by kansasjhawk044 on Apr 8, 2008 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not sure, but Corpas has been sucking wind
So you'd hafta think they wouldn't mind having him back, lol.
winning records follow good bullpens
Mets lose to Moyer... He has got to be 50.
Tell 'em a hookah smoking caterpillar
Has given you the call. "
Wonder if he broke 82 MPH today...
And somewhere, Rowdy Hardy's heart fills with hope.
winning records follow good bullpens
Rowdy Hardy
And about 5000 high school lefties...
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on Apr 8, 2008 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions
A bit reminiscent of the Burgos baby face.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
Maddux didn't when he beat the Giants
Tell 'em a hookah smoking caterpillar
Has given you the call. "
Maddux doesn't even need to throw
He just stares the ball past bats.
winning records follow good bullpens
The Golden Sombrero for ARod
Love it. Yeah, go on back to the dugout and count your money while you tell everyone how good looking you are. Bastard Yankee.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
Love the enthusiasm!
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on Apr 8, 2008 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Nothing gets my blood moving like pure hate.
Bastard Yankees. Bastards all of them.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
This stinks
I have to go to practice, and I really wanted to see this through. Good luck, guys. Go Blue!
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
A-rod has not looked good today
winning records follow good bullpens
Outstanding.
Of course, that works out to $0.02 per fan who was entertained by it.
Finally coming back to the 'K'!!!! I'm going to be there 7/11/08, vs the SEA Mariners, of course!
by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Apr 8, 2008 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions
88 mph that is only 6 mph faster than Rowdy.
Tell 'em a hookah smoking caterpillar
Has given you the call. "
YAY!
The Royals are playing inspired baseball. I love it.
Finally coming back to the 'K'!!!! I'm going to be there 7/11/08, vs the SEA Mariners, of course!
by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Apr 8, 2008 6:52 PM EDT reply actions
Work/School in Seattle
Live in Tacoma... Nice to have a regional friend on the blog, for sure! Nice to meet you!
Finally coming back to the 'K'!!!! I'm going to be there 7/11/08, vs the SEA Mariners, of course!
by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Apr 8, 2008 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions
No worries!
congrats on the move... This time of year I always want to be there. However, when people start cutting their kentucky bluegrass lawns, it's time for me to get out of town before my face swells.
Finally coming back to the 'K'!!!! I'm going to be there 7/11/08, vs the SEA Mariners, of course!
by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Apr 8, 2008 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions
i'm in seattle too
we should meet up for the 2 games next week.
i got ridiculously good tix last year scalping
apparently royals aren't a big draw...
Great job from the pen in the 7th
Who comes in for the 8th?
I'd like to see the Royals break this one open and make it a blowout, never have enough runs!
With gobble getting warm in the pen. That's what I'd do
winning records follow good bullpens
How much of the great results from the bullpen is from talent infusion and how much
is from good management from the coach? In other words, how much is not having Buddismo's mismanagement of the bullpen?
by MKforKC on Apr 8, 2008 6:54 PM EDT reply actions
Now that's dedication
winning records follow good bullpens
enjoy it ..it will be gone all to soon.
Tell 'em a hookah smoking caterpillar
Has given you the call. "
Gordon likes chasing pitches from lefties
winning records follow good bullpens
Gordon strikes me as a hitter who will swing
and miss quite a bit. But it will balance with the rockets and the power.
So far, he's been impressive this year
Doubly wiht the glove
winning records follow good bullpens
So....he's Rob Deering?
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on Apr 8, 2008 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Not so much
unless the entire team is. There's only a couple of guys in Omaha with lower OPS than Shealy right now.
Let's face it - that is Gload's ability
He is a line drive hitter who can explode every now and then. Better to stay within his skills than try to do too much
Okay Bucky show us your power stroke.
Tell 'em a hookah smoking caterpillar
Has given you the call. "
Wow gload with the speed
winning records follow good bullpens
Giambi couldn't get his finger out of his nose.
Tell 'em a hookah smoking caterpillar
Has given you the call. "
We're steal crazy!
Do we have more already this year than we had all of last year? And now Gload is out. Oops.
Whow! The Royals are running today!
This Yankee defense looks like crap!
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
Wow did he just get caught stealing third, why
winning records follow good bullpens
KC has been looking to steal 3rd all day
Teahen ran twice in the first inning but had to go back. Did Joey G take 3rd too?
Posada has had bad arm so they are looking to run at will - not sure about Gload swiping 3rd. Teahen and Joey G. - no problem.
Crap... Shealy never would have tried that.
Tell 'em a hookah smoking caterpillar
Has given you the call. "
My Yankees friend here at work is lamenting Posada and Betemit's
inability to stop base stealers. Well, apparently they did there.
by MKforKC on Apr 8, 2008 7:00 PM EDT reply actions
GReat, now we have tony effing pena leading off next inning
winning records follow good bullpens
Nunez time I assume Gobble is up in the pen
winning records follow good bullpens
SMALL SAMPLE!!!!!!
Just chant small sample/small sample/small sample!!!!
Finally coming back to the 'K'!!!! I'm going to be there 7/11/08, vs the SEA Mariners, of course!
by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Apr 8, 2008 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Time to trade Berroa to the Giants - they are hurting at SS
What do you think Berroa would fetch? Maybe $2 in a LaRue type trade?
Aw, come on...
Any guy who looks like that should be called 'nooner' out of condolences for his sex life.
Finally coming back to the 'K'!!!! I'm going to be there 7/11/08, vs the SEA Mariners, of course!
by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Apr 8, 2008 7:04 PM EDT reply actions
Nunez, my pick for breakout player of the year.
He looked filthy nasty homicidal good in the final game of last year. And he is picking up where he left off in 2008.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
He looked so good that he was striking out guys on two pitches.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
I got Nunez's autograph in KC 3 years ago when he was on a short call up
Runelvys Hernandez pitched that day against the Astros. It was big because Clemens was pitching the next day.
Damn good pitch to Giambi
winning records follow good bullpens
Nunez's stuff is perfectly suited for relief
Capable of getting the K. Wiry frame might not be durable enough for all the innings. He can deal when he is on his game.
Nunez is filthy
Trading him for Milton Bradley: best deal that never happened?
winning records follow good bullpens
I agree... excited is putting it mildly. or is the Boule's ..nope, Go Blue.
Tell 'em a hookah smoking caterpillar
Has given you the call. "
Guess Who Will
Do the honors.
Let's go, boys, to the toppermost of the poppermost!
by philofthenorth on Apr 8, 2008 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Should the Royals continue to keep up the great pitching
then they will be in hunt the entire season regardless of shaky hitting approach.
One t hing i have reallly noticed about our BP this year
THey've been doing a fantastic job moving the ball in and out. We've got 3 hardthrowers now that can pitch effectively inside and outside.
winning records follow good bullpens
Nunez makes it much more acceptable,
to experiment with Soria in the rotation. I think the guy can close.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
With His Physique
And repertoire I think that might be his best use.
Let's go, boys, to the toppermost of the poppermost!
by philofthenorth on Apr 8, 2008 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep, move Soria into the rotation midseason
Nunez to closer, Peralta can take over the 8th inning.
winning records follow good bullpens
im not excited about that
he's been great as a closer lets leave him there
I disapprove
of doing something like this mid-season. You'd have to first move him into longer relief to build up his pitch-count tolerance.
Boy, did you do a number on me last week in the fantasy league.
Tell 'em a hookah smoking caterpillar
Has given you the call. "
I know it suprised me to pull it out at the end.
and if anyone cares el charro means the corrupt/filthy/dirty one
Whenever TJP comes to the plate
I just assume he will make an out. Am I pessimistic, realistic or a genius?
yes
Finally coming back to the 'K'!!!! I'm going to be there 7/11/08, vs the SEA Mariners, of course!
by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Apr 8, 2008 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah
but do you want them playing SS for us?
Finally coming back to the 'K'!!!! I'm going to be there 7/11/08, vs the SEA Mariners, of course!
by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Apr 8, 2008 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions
In a straight line they will outrun a human
so if one is chasing you, run in zig zags of 7-10 feet lengths.
Finally coming back to the 'K'!!!! I'm going to be there 7/11/08, vs the SEA Mariners, of course!
by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Apr 8, 2008 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions
seriously
and when running from a bear, run downhill... They have to walk or they will start rolling end over end and break bones.
Finally coming back to the 'K'!!!! I'm going to be there 7/11/08, vs the SEA Mariners, of course!
by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Apr 8, 2008 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah...
pretty interesting for sure. I learned it last year in boy scouts with my son.
Finally coming back to the 'K'!!!! I'm going to be there 7/11/08, vs the SEA Mariners, of course!
by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Apr 8, 2008 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Grudz is an effing machine
winning records follow good bullpens
Grudz is off to a great start.
And, back in the day, he just won the fans free donuts.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
is there any promotion this year for a dozen hits
or any good promotions like that
Glad to see him off to good start - I worried about him in ST
Thought age might be creeping up. I still think KC will look to trade him later in the season.
I hate seeing those empty seats behind homeplate.
There are plenty of people right here in my study who would have loved to have those tickets today.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
I'd still like to see how Callaspo handles SS
Because if we can get TPJ and Gathright outta there, our lineup looks pretty good, or at least better.
I agree especially when a KC starter is more
of a flyball/strikeout pitcher. Greinke is the guy I think of first or Tomko.
Maybe the Royals could trade Guillen to Omaha for Berroa.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
Good AB from Mark, nice to see us get our patience back
winning records follow good bullpens
Wonder if the Yankees will see Soria and think
of what Rivera looked like 10 years ago. Rivera is always the first comp when Soria is mentioned.
Guillen with the big fat 0 fer 5
winning records follow good bullpens
Phil
I have it on MLB.tv
Disclaimer: Comments may not be suitable for young children or women who are pregnant, or women who think they may be pregnant. Side effects could include nausea, dizziness, or yelling at the monitor in disbelief.
Team LOB... 11
winning records follow good bullpens
Guillen is a rockstar. Rockstar.
Yeah yeah small sample size.
by MKforKC on Apr 8, 2008 7:20 PM EDT reply actions
He needs to be taken out of the cleanup spot until he gets his shit together.
If Trey can move Alex down to 6th after three games, he can move Jose's ass out now.
Guillen
A-Rod goes 0 for 4 with 4 K's and we're all worried about Guillen, good hitters don't always come through.
Disclaimer: Comments may not be suitable for young children or women who are pregnant, or women who think they may be pregnant. Side effects could include nausea, dizziness, or yelling at the monitor in disbelief.
I am not worried. I just don't have high expectations
Tell 'em a hookah smoking caterpillar
Has given you the call. "
He doesn't need to be spectacular
Just get 3 outs while giving up less than 3 runs.
winning records follow good bullpens
They're Not Worried
About "D" with El Guapo on the bump.
Let's go, boys, to the toppermost of the poppermost!
by philofthenorth on Apr 8, 2008 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, the Yankees are going to need to hit into outs today.
Soria is missing all over the place.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
Jose Guillen = Reggie Sanders
Yep. I'm a dick. Yes, yes. I know.
by MKforKC on Apr 8, 2008 7:24 PM EDT reply actions
Guillen WISHES he were Reggie Sanders!
I always like Reggie. Now if Guillen would go on the DL for the next 100 games maybe I would warm up to him a bit.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
I am listening on radio
but he "almost" gunned out Posada at the plate earlier in the game. Can't really know if it was closer or just overdone by announcers.
lovin' those hats
in the poweder blue with the dark blue KC lettering.
Finally coming back to the 'K'!!!! I'm going to be there 7/11/08, vs the SEA Mariners, of course!
by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Apr 8, 2008 7:26 PM EDT reply actions
That's a win! And a godo one
winning records follow good bullpens
I love these Royals. 5-2 and looking great.
This might be a magic year.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
Here, Jenny Jenny Jenny!
Come here, girl; nice Jenny.
Let's go, boys, to the toppermost of the poppermost!
by philofthenorth on Apr 8, 2008 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions
What happened to scotch?
I'll join you, but with something a little less physically harmful, but more illegal.
Finally coming back to the 'K'!!!! I'm going to be there 7/11/08, vs the SEA Mariners, of course!
by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Apr 8, 2008 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I am headed down for ice and the scotch will poured. It will taste even better because it was the Yankees
Tell 'em a hookah smoking caterpillar
Has given you the call. "
Sweet....
sounds good... I'm gonna roll one up and head to school on foot.
Enjoy the scotch. See ya all tomorrow for the thread!
Finally coming back to the 'K'!!!! I'm going to be there 7/11/08, vs the SEA Mariners, of course!
by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Apr 8, 2008 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions
YAY!
Ball Game!
Finally coming back to the 'K'!!!! I'm going to be there 7/11/08, vs the SEA Mariners, of course!
by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Apr 8, 2008 7:27 PM EDT reply actions
Go Blue... I am reluctantly optimistic.
Hey, where is the mean cheerleader....
Tell 'em a hookah smoking caterpillar
Has given you the call. "
Nasty Royals Cheerleader Lady hates the Yankees
Welcome to Kansas City you Yankee Bastards. Your money is no good here. Your just lucky that umpire gifted you those two early runs. When you play as bad as you did today you need all the help you can get.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
Oh ya...it has been a long cold winter... I needed to see that mean momma.
Tell 'em a hookah smoking caterpillar
Has given you the call. "
Great followup to the Jayhawks.
A few thoughts on the game
1. Nice to get Bannister a win in 5 innings. It will make up for a 7-8 IP game with a ND.
2. Bullpen was dominant AGAIN
3. KC had enough hitting - I like that Gordon and Butler are getting their share. They are carrying Guillen and TPJ. Have to wonder at Pena - when will Callaspo get a look?
4. Royals really looked aggressive on the bases - taking extra base on OF arms and stealing on Posada.
Which one is this?
The one in the black/blue royals thing or the one with the cowboy hat?
Finally coming back to the 'K'!!!! I'm going to be there 7/11/08, vs the SEA Mariners, of course!
by RoyalsFanInMarinerTown on Apr 8, 2008 7:31 PM EDT reply actions
Come on JQ and RR, don't make us beg.
Tell 'em a hookah smoking caterpillar
Has given you the call. "
They're Better When
I'm not at work; I'll be off for 2 weeks starting Friday.
Let's go, boys, to the toppermost of the poppermost!
by philofthenorth on Apr 8, 2008 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions
What else is cool,
here we are in week two, day game, and still getting nearly a thousand bits of banter in the game threads. There is a lot of optimism around this team.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
Who wants to help me....
.....boost this thread's comment line? We need 1,000 comments for the Home Opener game thread!
I will start by saying that temporarily - oh but just temporarily - all is right with the world!
Mahendra! Mahendra! Goooooooo Royals!
Great game
Now that we're done overanalyzing walks (for a day or two), I guess we now get to overanalyze a week's worth of stats for Guillen.
One bad week = he's horrible. Worst signing ever.
Perspective people. Oh...nevermind. Back to the whackiness.
I probably disagree with you.
Perspective
It's just the usual snarky sarcasm, man.
However, Guillen DOES need to be moved out of the cleanup spot for the moment.
There is some sarcasm, but a lot that isn't sarcasm.
A lot of this Guillen complaining isn't just sarcasm. I don't like how he's hit either. But the talk about it being a bad signing largely isn't sarcasm. It's serious...if you can call something that silly "serious."
And I don't think you should move people around in the batting order based on how they hit in one week. It doesn't make sense to overreact to a brief spell of hot or cold hitting. That would be like moving Gload up in the lineup just because of how he hit in the first 5 games.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on Apr 8, 2008 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Uh, no.
We're going to get into the streak argument again, but the simple fact of the matter is that guys start feeling the pressure and try harder, which usually means "try too hard", and it depresses their production even more. You move someone out of a "primary" lineup position for a bit, tell them "This is just temporary to get the pressure off you until you get settled down," then you move them back when they do.
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
That's on guess at the psychology of the situation
You're guessing that Guillen is or soon will be "pressing" and "trying too hard". That's possible. It is also possible that he's just in a mini-slump, but he's still confident and he's going out there with the same approach, regardless of his mini-slump. It is also very possible that moving him down in the lineup would really piss him off, as if his manager has lost confidence in him after only one week of games. Maybe then he'd start to lose confidence in himself, or start to really "press". Hillman is in the clubhouse with him. He knows Guillen's mindset and temperment better than we do. Since we're just guessing about psychology here, I'd have to defer to Hillman on this. If it were up to me, I'd keep him right there. He'll start hitting.
Also, every bit of study done on lineups and the effect of various batting orders shows that the difference in run scoring likelihood between having Player X bat 4th vs. 7th is very, very small over an entire season. The difference over a week or two is negligible.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on Apr 8, 2008 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not talking out my butt here.
Yes, the effect of various batting orders is negligible -- which is actually not a reason to refrain from moving the player down. It won't affect a particular game to any great extent, but it will affect the player.
I was actually in Guillen's situation in high school (3 hole, not cleanup), and I can tell you that I was in fact pressing once I went into the slump, and moving me down got me out of it. I'm pretty sure that every single major leaguer can tell you the exact same story, perhaps happening anywhere between little league and the majors. Now, you are correct; Trey should have his finger on this one, and if he's feeling that Jose's fine and isn't pressing, then sure. But at the same time, certain sabermetrically-inclined writers deserve every ounce of scorn heaped on them, because they insist any variance from the norm is just "random occurrence". Often, it is. Not nearly always.
I had a similar argument with someone over A-Rod and his playoff performance, too. He insisted that it was not possible that A-Rod was "choking"; it was all just random. May be. May not be. No "study" is ever going to prove that assertion unless it somehow takes into account the player's psyche. This is not the same argument as the Gload argument; I can accept that perhaps "hot streaks" don't occur so much as players simply playing at their normal level of performance and getting lucky, but "cold streaks" and "choking" DO happen. We just have no way of determining whether that slump is just random, or whether it's a result of psychological effects, injury, or just plain not caring.
As an outside observer, however, my first inclination would be that a move down the order would help Jose. He appears to be frustrated at the plate. When he made that great catch late in the game, it was like relief exploded out of his face; "Thank god I did something right today."
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
What may be true for rookies, minor leaguers and HS players, probably isn't true for established, veteran major leaguers
Yes, the effect of various batting orders is negligible -- which is actually not a reason to refrain from moving the player down. It won't affect a particular game to any great extent, but it will affect the player.
Exactly. But how will it affect him? I think there is a better chance that it will affect him negatively than positively. But we are both really guessing at this as we can't get into his head.
FWIW, the conventional wisdom is that if you have an established player who you think is a good hitter, you put him in the spot in the lineup that you think is right for his abilities and you keep him there, period. Guillen's no kid. He knows he can hit. He's been a good hitter for multiple major league seasons. For a player like him, you show confidence in him and you keep him in his spot in the lineup. You don't bump him every time he has a bad week.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on Apr 8, 2008 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions
The conventional wisdom
also led to Ken Griffey Jr. trying to play center field for about three years longer than he should, to Justin Morneau winning an MVP award, to five-man pitching rotations, and to pitchers being paid to pitch one inning at a time but only when their team is up by three runs or fewer.
I mean, sabermetrics has absolutely no impact on how a manager is going to deal with the psychological well-being of his players, so the only conventional wisdom you can be referring to is exactly the sort of conventional wisdom that smart folks like us automatically distrust.
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
Automatic distrust is fine
And sabermetrics has dispelled many elements of the conventional wisdom. But most of the CW is there for a reason. Most of it works. Most of it makes sense. Sticking with a good veteran in his lineup spot makes sense. Bumping him because of one bad week simply does not.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on Apr 9, 2008 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Check me on this
because I honestly do not remember:
Did you raise hell about switching Teahen and Gordon?
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
I don't think so
I didn't have a problem with that. Gordon is a second year player. He doesn't expect to be the #3 hitter all season. I strongly expect Hillman told him as much at the beginning of the season. Very young players like him can benefit from being moved down and not putting so much on his shoulders in his sophomore season. Guillen, on the other hand, is a vet. He's a proven, established player. He is what he is. If he's not hitting right now, he soon should be. Veterans know that good and bad streaks come and go. They know how to stick with their approach and the hit will come. He doesn't need to be moved down or up in the batting order. He is who he is, period. Showing a lack of confidence in him or doing something which he might see as an insult could only have negative consequences.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on Apr 9, 2008 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions
But he's not
a proven established cleanup hitter, and I think this is where your argument -- rational as it otherwise is -- fails. In fact, he has been a team's primary #2, #3, #5, and #6 hitter in the past... but never, not even in Washington, been the either the team's primary #4, or even hit in the #4 slot more than any other slot.
Now, you know and I know that the position in the lineup is not that meaningful when it all comes loose. But to a player, position is meaningful; it carries expectations. He's not used to be expectations of being the cleanup guy, pure and simple.
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
Whether he's been a cleanup hitter in previous seasons or not is irrelevant
He knows that he has the best hitting track record (both career and in the last few seasons) of anyone on this team. He's a good, established major league hitter. If Hillman thought he was the man for the cleanup spot on day 1, he should still think he's the man for that spot now. Performance over one week shouldn't change his mind.
Do you really think that Guillen is feeling significantly diferent pressure in the #4 spot than he has had in his career hitting #2, #3 and #5? There isn't a lot of pressure in the #3 spot? You're acting like the #4 spot is such a huge deal that he's choking under the massive pressure. I don't believe that for a second. He's been a good major leaguer for several years, hitting in premium spots in the batting order and being relied on to be one of his team's big bats. And now you think he needs to be moved down in the lineup because he's suddenly collapsing under the pressure of the #4 spot? I think that is a huuuuuuge stretch. He's an experienced professional. Being in the #4 spot instead of the #3 or #5 spot isn't going to suddenly make him choke.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on Apr 9, 2008 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Now I'm calling him a choker?
I'm not; I'm just saying he needs to get warmed up, and so far he's a sucking hole stuck in the middle of a sizzling hot 2-3-5-6 combo.
The "bad start" is not a myth. For all we laugh off small sample size, some players are historically cold early and hot late (slow to get adjusted to facing major league stuff after the off-season), and some players are historically hot early and cold late (wearing down over the season), and some players are affected by both. This isn't assumption or belief-on-faith; it's borne out in the numbers. April, by the way, is one of Jose's worst months over his career; September is the worst.
Interestingly, while looking that up, I noticed something else: Jose hits like crap in domes. That accounts for 3/7 of his season so far, so I am less concerned with his performance than I was 5 minutes ago.
"We want you to bat cleanup, and provide power because we don't have a lot of that." So maybe he's trying to hit for power rather than, you know, just hitting. If he's batting .270 with no homers, we're not having this discussion.
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
Didn't you say that he was "feeling the pressure" leading him to "press" and "try to hard"?
I don't think he's feeling any more pressure than when he's hit #2, #3 or #5 throughout his career. He isn't a kid. This isn't new to him in any meaningful way.
Now you're arguing that he shouldn't be hitting fourth because we should expect him to have a bad April? Does he have consistently bad Aprils? Is this a year in, year out kind of thing? And no, I don't put too much stock in monthly stats like that. The "player X always gets off to slow starts" stuff is usually BS and is more about perception than reality.
There's a lot of maybes and guesswork in your analysis of Guillen's psychology. Guessing that he feels pressure to do well in the #4 spot. Guessing that he feels like he needs to hit for power. Guessing that he'll somehow warm up lower in the order. I just can't hang my hat on those guesses, particularly when there is at least as strong an argument to be made in support of the guesses that it is best to just leave him there.
Ok, I think I'm done now.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on Apr 9, 2008 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Dude
Your entire argument is "I like my guesses better than yours, even though there's absolutely no way of knowing which ones are actually closer to the mark".
I'm not trying to tell you that you're wrong; I'm trying to show you why I don't think my position is unreasonable. Yet you are carrying on as if my position IS wholly unreasonable, which it isn't. We are arguing about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.
Well, except for this thing about "I don't put too much stock in monthly stats". Guillen has over 730 PA in every month of the season, making his monthly splits more statistically meaningful than any individual season. Guillen starts cold and ends cold. He has hot summers.
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
I don't think it is unreasonable or irrational. I just don't think it is the right way to handle a good, established, veteran hitter
I really don't think it is unreasonable. Just unwise. And when you are arguing against the conventional wisdom, I think you need to come with more than psychological guesswork.
You are vastly overstating Guillen's so called slow start problem. He did have a bad April in 2007. In 2006, he had a wrist injury which hurt his hitting. So that was about injury not some kind of terminal slow start problem. In 2005, he had a great April. In 2004, bad April. In 2003, great April. Before that you have multiple years where he was a part-time player and a couple of full-time seasons. Those were a mixed bag, including the two full-time seasons (97 and 98) where he had mediocre Aprils. Looks like quite a mix of good, bad and mediocre Aprils to me. Definitely not a consistent pattern of slow starts. Not at all.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on Apr 9, 2008 1:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Guillen career OPS+ by month:
May: 111
June: 102
July: 121
August: 97
Sept/Oct: 80
April: 88. If this were a case where April was like 98 or something, I'd concede the point, but I think you'd have to agree that an OPS+ of 88, in comparison with his May-August numbers, is significant.
Yes, he has had a couple of good Aprils. That great 2003, however, was only 55 PA; the only really legitimate one was 2005. Yeah, injured in 2006; that doesn't indicate he'd have hit well if not injured, it's just a (valid) excuse. Even if we grant 2003, that's only two outliers, and we all know about outliers. Unless he hits about .500 the rest of the month, this isn't going to be one of them.
Lastly, the conventional wisdom does not have batters sticking in one spot in the lineup. Amos Otis bounced all over the Royals lineup; in 1977, he didn't play more than 40 games in the same spot in the order. More recently... lessee, random solid veteran, first one I thought of: Craig Biggio? I bet he always batted leadoff... 2006, nope, bounced around the top three slots. Another one... Hideki? 79 games at 5, 45 games at 4, 18 games at 3, scattered games elsewhere. And Guillen himself hasn't been left alone in a lineup slot before.
Now, if you've got a Barry Bonds or a Jeff Kent or a Gary Sheffield or such, yeah, absolutely, you leave them alone. Jose Guillen may be the best power hitter on this team, but he's not any of those guys. (And he's very likely not the best hitter on this team, either, but then he'd be batting third.)
That said, hey, you could absolutely be right. I totally agree that Guillen might snap a gasket if he's moved down; after all, this IS Jose Guillen we're talking about. His bat may wake up tomorrow, making you look like a genius. ;) For that matter, his performance thus far has been so poor that even a 88 OPS+ clip for the rest of the month would be an improvement. But what if Trey leaves him there, and his bat doesn't wake up... and he ends a ton of innings with Grudz and Teahen waiting for him to drive them in? You argue that my opinion on this is "unwise", but this exact situation is the sort of thing managers get broiled over. At what point does one say, "Well, okay, we DO have to move him"?
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
This April thing simply isn't a consistent phenomenon...etc.
There are more than two outliers. There are some good Aprils and some mediocre Aprils as well as the bad ones. In those years, did he just forget that he's a slower starter? There simply isn't a consistent pattern. There are just some really bad Aprils that skew the overall April averages for his career downward.
Lastly, the conventional wisdom does not have batters sticking in one spot in the lineup.
I never said that a player has to be in the same spot in the lineup all season. What I said was that the conventional wisdom says don't bump a good, established hitter out of his lineup spot because of a bad week. And don't do it to help him "warm up" or de-stress or anything like that.
At what point does one say, "Well, okay, we DO have to move him"?
That's a tough question, involving many variables, including but not limited to: exactly how well he's hitting at a particular point, if he's showing improvement, how well other players are hitting, and what Hillman thinks his mindset is. The short version is that I'd give him another couple of weeks and then see how he's hitting then.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on Apr 9, 2008 2:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Just to boost the thread count (ha ha - A joke for Martha Stewart, if she still reads Royals Review)
I really am feeling great about the Royals right now. Before the season I predicted 82 wins, and in truth, I knew that was optimism speaking. Now, I am starting to allow myself to dream even bigger.
It is reasonably possible that 88-89 wins will get an AL team into the blessed post-season. What do you think the chance are of the Royals racking up this number of wins? Right now, I'd give them about a 20% chance.
Do the Royals really have a one in five shot at the post season? Has Dayton Moore positioned the Royals to make the jump in 2008?
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
I'd say 10% chance
I still think the pitching will be good and the offense will be subpar. In order for them to win 88-89 games, they'd have to have great pitching and at least a league average offense. I think there is only a 10% chance that both of those things will happen given the kind of competition they have in this division.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on Apr 9, 2008 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Wow, look at this,
What we are saying is that we both think the Royals have a 10-20% chance of squeezing into the post season this year.
Isn't that amazing! Considering where this team was in 2006.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
Really impressive pitching can do that, even when your offense is somewhat lackluster
Three genuinely good starting pitchers plus a couple of serviceable ones (I think). And then a great bullpen. That can carry you pretty far.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on Apr 9, 2008 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Playoff Odds Report through yesterday:
Unmodified: >24%+>7% WC - 31%
PECOTA: >5%+>2% WC - 8%
ELO: 4% WC - 18%
I'd say 20% is just about right at this point.
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
Wow, even PECOTA-adjusted we're at 8%
And PECOTA hates the Royals this year.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on Apr 9, 2008 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions
The PECOTA post-season odds do adjust themselves
based on real performance -- i.e., if the Royals are 79-55 in early September, it will not continue pretending they're a 72-win team -- so the good pitching is being taken into account.
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
You mean after one week, they are throwing the PECOTA projections out the window?
I know for a fact, they don't run PECOTA projections more than twice a year. They don't recalcuated them throughout the season. It just takes too long to run the algorithm for all of those players. So if they aren't recalcuating PECOTA, how does the PECOTA-adjusted postseason odds take into account the good pitching of the first week?
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on Apr 9, 2008 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I didn't say PECOTA adjusts itself.
I said the post-season odds adjust themselves, by bleeding current performance against the projections; if PECOTA thinks you're a .400 team, and the all-star break rolls around and you're 40-40, it treats you like a .450 team. There was an article on the mechanics behind it last year, but I'm too tired to go digging for it right now.
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
I understand that part
The postseason odds are basically about your record and who you have left to play. The PECOTA-adjust odds are based on those things, plus the influence of PECOTA projections. So the PECOTA-adjusted odds report takes into account our current record and then PECOTA brings the hammer down. So I'm impressed that even with the effect of PECOTA (which hates the Royals this year), it still thinks we have an 8% chance to make the playoffs.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on Apr 9, 2008 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions
And I'm surprised that the chance has more than doubled after 7 games.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on Apr 9, 2008 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions
PECOTA lives in New York
When the Royals beat the Yankees the PECOTA supercomputer re-ran the projections, only now taking into account the "ONLY-GAMES-INVOLVING-THE-YANKEES-AND-SAWKS-MATTER" algorithm. After doing so the baseball scientists arrived at the surprising new conclusion, i.e. "The Royals exist."
This discovery of course caused a tizzy in the lab. The baseball scholars tripped over their white lab coats rushing to the ESPN hotline to alert Sportcenter of the shocking new discovery of a baseball team located in the, as yet unexplored, heartland of America. Perhaps they will send out a scientific expedition to capture these fabled "Royals" on film and show them to the rest of a bewildered nation.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
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