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One person who has to go

In the midst of losing three games in a row I am curious who do you find at fault. Who do you think has to go by july or at the end of this season? Who do you as the fan view as the biggest detriment to this team it can be  player or coach  Personally I think everyone knows (I hate) brett tomko is the guy I would get rid of. Some might call that irrational but its just my opinon. Whats yours? I have a hunch most will say the royals hitting coach but really you know whos at fault?? Trey Hillman. *real answer listed below. 

*brett tomko*

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alex gordon

his upbeat, superstar attitude is destroying clubhouse chemistry and our well defined culture of losing. how are we going to reach the magic number of 100 with his bat in the middle of our lineup.

disgraceful.

by ZeppelinDZ on May 11, 2008 11:11 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

His home runs

Keep killing rallies. Trade him for whatever you can get, preferably a speedy outfielder who can make productive outs.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 11, 2008 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

in all seriousness I think

Butler has to be sent back down to triple a.

by Billybutlerformvp on May 11, 2008 12:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yea

But you’re only saying that so he can win AAA MVP, and your name can be correct.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 11, 2008 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually

Tomko is a career .158/.191/.178 hitter. That OBA is actually 15 points higher than what Pena is hitting so far this season.

So give Bret a bat!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 11, 2008 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you're looking for a scapegoat

I think this start has been a team effort. I would probably try to trade German or Grudzielanek. I’d try to dump Gload. I’d even consider outright releasing him. But that won’t happen.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 11, 2008 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

sure

1. 6.58 K/9
2. 2.64 K/BB
3. 4.36 FIP
4. The fact that he’s pitching ok for a 5th starter means there’s no pressure to rush Davies back to the majors when he clearly still has some serious control issues to work on.

Shall I list more?

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 11, 2008 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Please do

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 11, 2008 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ok

5. A plus fastball that routinely hits mid-90’s
6. A couple decent secondary pitches, including an improved curveball which he’s been using effectively as an out-pitch

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 11, 2008 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Seems like that curveball that Mac has him throwing

has given him new life. He’s been a pleasant surprise to me.

by royaldaddy on May 12, 2008 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

can you name 2 positives about Pena?

pena is allowed to kill us nightly….tomko is only awful about once/week…if that…sometimes he isnt awful. im not a fan, but he’s not that bad of a 5th starter

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on May 11, 2008 5:22 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

For a minute

I was worried this thread was about me.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 11, 2008 5:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Ha! My First

Thought too….........about me, not you.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on May 11, 2008 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

no brett tomko is a joke of a pitcher

and your content to keep running him out its absurd. tomko is terrible for a # 6 starter. the man burns bullpens, he cant get ahead of batters. and he wasnt that good in his prime so what makes you think he can be decent at the twilight of his game.

by Billybutlerformvp on May 11, 2008 7:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Despite the available evidence to the contrary

Your refrain is basically, “I don’t care what the stats say and I don’t care how good his stuff his. He sucks!!!!!” Face it, you don’t much of anything about Tomko and I doubt you’ve even tried to learn about him. He had a pretty bad 2007, although his peripherals were better than his ERA. He was pretty good for the 3 years before that (you might want to check out his ERA+, which is park and league normalized). And McClure has made him better by teaching him a good curveball. So far the extent of your “analysis” is “He’s a joke!” You don’t like him and, as you’ve pointed out, it is irrational.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 11, 2008 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Remember, you're arguing with a Mets fan

who has a mancrush on Billy. ;)

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on May 11, 2008 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh wait, really?

I didn’t know this. He’s a Met’s fan, not a Royals fan?

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

he supposedly got frustrated with his mets after...

their collapse last year so he decided to go find a new team….

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on May 12, 2008 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good lord

No wonder it sounds like he doesn’t know much about this team. Why doesn’t he go jump on the bandwagon of some contender?

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i did and they suffered the worst collapse in history

so i figured id go to a team with no expectations. i just didnt realizethey where lower than even I could foresee.

by Billybutlerformvp on May 12, 2008 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Then maybe it is time for you to move on

Find some team with a winning record instead of bashing an underperforming team which you know nothing about.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

cant unless you want to trade butler to the mets than

ill go back =) otherwise ill stick it out, i dont have that much beef with the way they are handling things.

by Billybutlerformvp on May 12, 2008 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you're going to follow the Royals and discuss them with knowledgeable fans...

...then I would respectfully suggest that you get to know the team and its personnel so that you can have informed opinions about the team and its players.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

trust me i am well informed about how

stupidly this team is run.lets start at the top the gm is an idiot last season the Mariners offered Wladimir Balentien to Kansas City before the Royals picked the Braves’ offer of Kyle Davies for Octavio Dotel. you chose kyle f@#$@ing davies who got lite up in the nl so bring him to the al.GENUIS lets see you have a 27 year old shortstop who cant hit out of a paperbag you you say it is okay to keep running him out their every day. why is that his 0-4 is compensated by his magnificent defense??? I think not. it is absurd how you agree with every single thing the royals do. you keep saying teahen will hit for power. newsflash hes had over 1000 abs and hasnt shown except in one season. he is 26 hes not developing any further.

by Billybutlerformvp on May 12, 2008 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good lord
the Mariners offered Wladimir Balentien to Kansas City before the Royals picked the Braves’ offer of Kyle Davies for Octavio Dotel.

Clearly you don’t know what you’re talking about. One Seattle journalist’s blog reported that offer. Many (including multiple writers at BP were skeptical that such an offer had been made. Certainly not straight up in a one-for-one trade). Moore was asked point blank if that offer had been made (and this was in August of last year) and he said flatly “no.”
is absurd how you agree with every single thing the royals do.

Of course I don’t and if you paid attention, you’d know that.
you keep saying teahen will hit for power. newsflash hes had over 1000 abs and hasnt shown except in one season. he is 26 hes not developing any further.

Do I keep saying that Teahen will hit for power? Go look through my posts. I think he’ll show some power, certainly more than he’s shown so far this season. But I don’t think he’s a great power hitter. The die is not cast yet. He’s shown both high power and low power. You follow the team for a month and suddenly you think you know the players well. That’s sad. And you think that 26-year-old players aren’t developing? That shows how much you know about the development curve. Nothing.
Please learn something about this team, or go jump on some other team’s bandwagon. Your ignorance is embarrassing.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

what are you talking about

he never showed power in the minors and he never showed power prior to his one decent season and after he hasnt shown power. so odds are he doesnt have even moderate power. and i would lie and say no as well if i was stupid enough to pick kyle davies.how about trading Erik Cordier for tony pena jr. its inexcusable how stupid this franchise has become.

by Billybutlerformvp on May 12, 2008 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

More nonsense

Stupid enough to pick Kyle Davies? Moore took the best offer. He wasn’t offered Balentien. He wasn’t offered Hu. He was trading a 2-month rental of a usually injured reliever. He wasn’t going to get much. So he took on a project with great stuff in the hopes he could turn him into something. It’s not like the Royals were going to get a top prospect for 2 months of Dotel.

And you don’t know a thing about Erik Cordier. He’s a reliever who has never pitched higher than A-ball who has had two major season ending injuries.

I’m getting tired of a non-fan coming onto this site and calling the franchise “stupid.” Your opinion of Dayton Moore is ignorant and ill-informed at best.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

really but at the time

erik cordier had a high value and you get. tony pena jr?? just pathetic beyond words. boneheaded.

by Billybutlerformvp on May 12, 2008 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cordier...

Just had another TJ surgery during ST. Not pitching this year, probably not most of next either.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on May 12, 2008 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

but at the time of the trade iam saying

you could have gotten so much more in value.

by Billybutlerformvp on May 12, 2008 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

At the time of the trade he had recently been injured and was going to be out for the entire 2007 season

Atlanta knew he was injured and was going to be out for the whole season when they traded for him. His trade value was tiny at the time.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Seen how far Keppinger's OPS has fallen?

Keep watching, it will fall further. And he’s a hack at SS defensively.

Your analysis of Dayton Moore is laughable. How about these moves:

Bannister for Burgos
Sisco for Gload
MacDougal for Cortes and Lumsden
Ramirez for de los Santos
Dessens for Pimentel and Johnson

Moore has done an excellent job, period. He still has work to do. You can’t make a contender out of whole cloth in 2 years.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

btw iam curious ny royal.

why do you have ny in front of the royal? you from ny in that case maybe you should be a ny yankee fan but idk if you could handle it. you know having expectations a win now team.

by Billybutlerformvp on May 12, 2008 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll answer your question if you'll answer mine

I have NY in my screen name because I live in NYC. I don’t think that one’s geographical status should necessarily determine one’s rooting interest. This site has Royals fans from all over the country and, indeed, all over the globe. But fans who discuss their team on a site like this should actually know something about the team.

Also, are you at all familiar with the concept of rebuilding? Do you know what rebuilding is? Do you know how it is done? Do you understand how important it is?

One more question. How old are you?

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ladies

You’re both pretty!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 12, 2008 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was only off by 2

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah youve been rebulding for like a decade.

how is it teams like the twins and oakland a’s and marlins even tampa bay this year can do it in short spans but you guys cant? why is that?

by Billybutlerformvp on May 12, 2008 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Are you serious?

The Marlins have “rebuilt” by going out and spending a hell of a lot of money. That’s not rebuilding. That’s buying. If the Royals had that kind of money, they’d do it. Do you think Tampa Bay has rebuilt in a “short span”? How long has that team been in existence? That is the amount of time they have been rebuilding.

The prior management stunk and crippled the organization. Moore has done a good job of rebuilding the team and moving us towards contention. Win-now strategies would be beyond stupid.

Face it, you’re not a Royals fan. You’re just a Royals basher who, for some reason, is in love with Billy Butler. I’m getting tired of a non-fan bashing this team everyday. You’re pathetic and if you keep it up, you might get a little “time out” from this site.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

the marlins have not spent any money

the marlins spend 22 million on their whole team. are you high!!! the royals spend twice as much 57 million. how about you become more knowledgeable about other teams einstein. their highest paid player makes 2.5 million

by Billybutlerformvp on May 12, 2008 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Your ignorance is really getting embarrassing now

When the Marlins have won their championships, do you know how they did it? They went out and bought those championships. They brought in big money free agents. Since their last championship, they’ve had a fire sale and brought their payroll down to the bare bones. Clearly you haven’t been following baseball very long.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

really their payroll in 03

was 49 million which is still less than the royals spend now . how long have you been following baseball.

by Billybutlerformvp on May 12, 2008 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Even I gave...

...up trying to argue against Tomko. He’s proven my wrong, and I’m glad. But I’m also glad we have Hochevar up. It’s the best of both worlds, considering my early season arguments. – TL

by timlacy on May 12, 2008 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's rediculous

to have this much hate for a # 4/5 starter who is doing his job and really has no future with this team. How does this team get better for the long haul without Tomko? It won’t because he won’t be here more than 2 years. It makes no sense. What were you saying about him during that start against the Angels where he was dominating? Were you mad at Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, or any of our other hitters for not giving him a single run? Probably not.

by I need more Esteban on May 11, 2008 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

I don’t think Tomko is very good, but he’s far from the first reason why this team is not playing well.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 11, 2008 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

and yes tomko is terrible

hitters are hitting a cool .296 against him. he has a 5.67 era. what do you guys consider decent a freakin 6 era??? cmon. In 39 innings hes given up 48 hits. factor in 11 walks thats 59 baserunners in 39 inning meaning hes always pitching with guys on base which burns out your bullpen. buthey at least tomko is in the top 10 for something loses. but that doesnt matter right? noo plus he makes 3 million and hes 36. for a rebuilding team this guy is great to keep around right>????

by Billybutlerformvp on May 12, 2008 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ever heard of any advanced pitching metrics?

lmao, I don’t even know why I asked the question.

Read up on stats, kid.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah his 5 era and 2-11 record last yr

for LA speaks volumes of his greatness. just like you. might i enquire what your occupation is? perhaps a professor of knows nothing at knows nothing university?

by Billybutlerformvp on May 12, 2008 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

hahahaha

That was funny, seriously, what’s wrong with you???

Disclaimer: Comments may not be suitable for young children or women who are pregnant, or women who think they may be pregnant. Side effects could include nausea, dizziness, or yelling at the monitor in disbelief.

by MileHighKCfan on May 12, 2008 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't get it

I know this thread isn’t supposed about Tomko, but what’s wrong with having someone like him as a one-year, stopgap 5th starter? Heck, how many previous years would the Royals have been lucky to have them in the middle of the rotation? I’m not saying he’s great, or a future middle-of-the-rotation guy (a la Meche’s optimistic outlook), but he hardly seems like the guy holding the team back.

Are we talking about people that just drive us nuts personally? Or someone who just shouldn’t be on the major league team right now? If its the latter, I’m actually warming to the idea of sending Butler down to AAA for a while to get his swing back in order and to give him full-time reps at 1B (if Hillman can’t reconcile himself to doing that), especially if it puts off the arbitration stuff (I know this has been discussed at length elsewhere, but I’m too lazy to figure it out for myself). Again, this isn’t because I don’t like him or think that he’s “killing the team” or anything, I just think it might be in the long-term interest of both his development and the organization’s finances to do so.

If we’re talking who is killing the team the most right now, probably Gathright. Subjectively, the entertainment value of Gathright is great. And if, as someone brilliantly suggested a while back, the Royals could place cars in left/center field, the home team could have a brilliant advantage. Having said that, despite inexplicable optimism amongst some regarding his offensive potential—his “canthititis” seems to be genetic despite his thrilling breaking of the .700 OPS barrier last season.

Now, subjectively, TPJ drives me nuts the most. He also, historically and objectively, is the worst hitter on the team. He makes Joey Gathright look like a regular David DeJesus with the bat. Having said that, the Royal have options if Gathright is gone, I’m not sure who they’d replace Pena with full-time (I like Callaspo at 2B and as a fill-in for TPJ, but playing him full-time at a defensive position that’s difficult for him might screw with him) that wouldn’t be as bad or worse. So Gathright is more expendable.

There’s also the considerations with Olivo, despite his current lucky streak—the whole, “I thought I was promised a shot at starting” thing really bugs me. Hillman’s strategery also is annoying, but, the truth is, he’s probably not worse than most managers. I’ve seen Joe Torre, John Gibbons, and others make equal and worse decisiona bout bunting, pinch-hitting, reliever use, and stuff. I just don’t think it’s very easy to get beyond “replacement level” with managers (although, as Tony Pena and Buddy Bell show, it is quite easy to get below it.)

Hope is not a strategy. And neither is playing Tony Pena every day. (Rany Jazayerli)

by devil_fingers on May 11, 2008 9:39 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Choosing Luis Soho over Nick Johnson

That’s what Torre did in constructing his roster for the 2001 playoffs.

Is Torre a better/worse manager than Hillman? So far, I guess we’d have to say better. What about their managerin’ skillz? Who knows. Not much info on Hillman, Torre’s had superior tools. Hillman maded a stupid decision, horrible. Worse than Mariano Rivera not pitchingin extra innings in the 2003 World Series and losing a game on an Alex Gonzalez homer off Jeff Freaking Weaver? I don’t think so.

Hope is not a strategy. And neither is playing Tony Pena every day. (Rany Jazayerli)

by devil_fingers on May 11, 2008 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

One thing most people aren't taking into account

which informs the entire discussion as to who’s expendable and who’s not:

This is a team which had been woefully mismanaged on every level for years. There are Bad Habits which need to be broken, including plate discipline issues, TPJ trying to hit home runs, etc. There are also developmental things which need time, such as Alex’s problems with major-league lefties, Billy’s power, and Teahen trying to be… something. (I think Teahen still has power. I just think his plate approach is sapping it; perhaps he’s trying too hard to be a more high-average/OBP guy, I don’t know.)

All of these issues take time under proper management. My issues with Hillman are entirely game-management; I think he’s a good teacher, however, and I suspect he’s trying to work on the issues I’ve mentioned, at least most of them. But habits aren’t broken overnight, or even in two months. And it’s entirely possible our offensive malfeasance is directly related to trying to get hitters to learn a new approach. That’s just a guess; obviously none of us know what’s going on in the clubhouse. Just something to consider.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on May 11, 2008 9:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I know I might be one of the few

But I just can’t jump on the, “This is all Hillman’s fault” train that people seem to be starting to embrace. The manager in baseball is really not that important. Players have to produce and many of ours aren’t. The funniest part about it is, we play in the AL, I think I could manage in the AL.

Sarcasm aside, we had a lot of problems with Buddy Bell last year. Some of them were very justified, some maybe not because we were so frustrated with the team. The difference was that Buddy had been with the team for well over a year, and he was an old, recycled manager (at least that’s why I had a problem with him). Any problems with Hillman are a tad bit premature at this point. It’s not even the All-Star break yet folks.

by I need more Esteban on May 11, 2008 11:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I've been very pleased with Trey

He handles the bullpen very well, doesn’t work the young pitchers too hard (he let Hochevar throw a bit too much, but other than that, we’re cool). He stole a lot early to see if it worked, it didn’t, and now he’s laying off quite a bit. He mixes up the lineup to try to find a good combo. I’ve been pleased thus far with Trey. I wish he just had more than a peashooter to go into battle.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 11, 2008 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is anyone saying it is all Hillman's fault?

The losses aren’t any one person’s fault. Meche, TPJ, Guillen, Bale, Gathright and many others are to blame. Probably everyone to some degree. None of them are the main reason. They are all just pieces of the puzzle. Hillman deserves his share of the blame. Being a manager, his share is pretty small. But let’s not completely disregard his mistakes. Too many SB attempts. Too many hit-and-runs. Too many poorly timed sacrifices. Too little pinch-hitting for TPJ.

Any problems with Hillman are a tad bit premature at this point

Saying he’s a bad manager at this point is premature. Saying that we know what kind of manager he’s going to be for the rest of his tenure is premature. Having a problem with some/many of the moves he’s made is not premature.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I dunno, man.

I know I harp on this, but being (apparently) unaware that Kotchman’s been destroying lefties at a historic pace this year tells me something about him beyond just making a bad decision here and there.

It’s possible he knew it, and just gambled on Gobble’s lefty-fu being stronger than Kotchman’s, in which case it was just a bad decision. But I just can’t wrap my head around anyone MAKING that decision, so I question whether it was done with eyes open.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on May 12, 2008 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That decision

You always have to take into account the platoon splits of both the batter and the hitter. Gobble dominates lefties. Kotchman has hit lefties well. I don’t think it was obviously a bad move.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Understand...

I don’t think, in a vacuum, “Have Gobble pitch to Kotchman” is a bad decision in and of itself. If Gobble’s already in the game, it becomes a no-brainer to leave him in, without doubt.

It was the difference in probable outcomes between “walk Kotchman and let Ramirez try to get Hunter to GIDP” and “see whether the lefty-killing pitcher can strikeout or induce a non-RBI grounder on the lefty-killing hitter”. It was really a bad percentage move in context far moreso than on its own merit.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on May 12, 2008 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also

While Kotchman was pretty good against lefties last year, before that he had predictable splits. This year he is crushing them… but it’s been 29 plate appearances so far (how many was it when the actual event happened?)... not a large enough sample size to go against his own and Gobble’s part performance, not to mention the near-universality of the platoon advantage.

Hope is not a strategy. And neither is playing Tony Pena every day. (Rany Jazayerli)

by devil_fingers on May 12, 2008 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

His career split

is a reverse-40.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on May 12, 2008 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And then there's Gobble's split since he changed to a 3/4ths delivery and became a dominant LOOGY

That’s at least as important as any hitter’s platoon split.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

See above ;)

Of course, if you were to just take this season’s numbers at the time into account, (.071+.528)/2=.2995. Obviously, small sample size etc., but in context it should have been a red flag.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on May 12, 2008 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well I was originally responding

to the base of this post that had Hillman’s name in it. But after reading the posts of that person in this thread, I realize that he doesn’t really know what’s going on. I did go back through some posts and noticed 2 seperate posts titled “Love that Treyball” that were bashing Trey’s decisions a little bit (nothing wrong with that). I did look through and realize that many of the posters in that thread were defending Trey still, while some were not so happy with him.

I don’t think a lot of people are bashing him but there is definitely some going around. I usually notice everytime someone bashes a Royals member because I don’t really like it. I have my problems with our players but they are still Royals and because they are I don’t like to bash them like they are playing for the White Sox. I’ve gone off on a tangent now, but basically: Yes your are right, it’s not like people are calling for his head, but I have seen a fair amount of Trey bashing so far, but if they want to do that then, ok, everyone is entitled to their opinion.

by I need more Esteban on May 12, 2008 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think at this point I may be the most "anti-Trey"

commenter, but I haven’t reached the point of calling for his head yet. I just don’t think he’s going to be a savior. I’m not crazy about his percentages:

- Sticking with Pena. Pena likely costs us more runs at the plate than he saves in the field (setting aside the intangible confidence benefit the pitchers receive from him being back there). Even if that’s not true, I’m almost positive that (Pena’s defensive contribution) – (Pena’s offensive liability) is less beneficial than (Callaspo’s offensive contribution) – (Callaspo’s defensive liability) would be. I’m not altogether fond of the metric, but by Lee Sinins’ RCAA, Pena is -10. Callaspo’s at +1 in limited playing time. Callaspo has both a higher fielding percentage and Range Factor this season than Pena. Yes, yes, I know, FPCT is irrelevant and RF isn’t very robust. How about FRAA? Callaspo has a +1 FRAA this season. Pena… has a -1. I am unable to find a single metric in which Pena is outperforming Callaspo with the glove, despite the Conventional Wisdom believing Callaspo “cannot handle” the position. Further, he’s not as good as he appears to be on even a subjective level. Yes, he makes flashy, rangy plays, and that’s good, but he also makes his share of bone-headed misjudgments. It’s just that he follows the screw-up with some sick Ozzie Smith play and we all go “Awwwwww, in’t he cute” and forgive him.

- There’s been a lot of bad baserunner movement. I don’t mean “That didn’t work so it was bad” inexplicable, I mean “Why the hell did he even bother?” inexplicable. The question becomes, how many times has “runner trying to steal third with two outs” been on him vs. on the runner? But he doesn’t have that luxury when it comes to inexplicable hit-and-run plays wherein the “hit” component can’t.

- Way too much swinging at 3-0 pitches, which is mostly on him for giving the green light.

- Kotchman.

The key will be whether he can teach anyone anything (mostly lessening the impact of the second and third items above), and thus lessen the need for him to make complex and critical in-game decisions… or, alternatively, learn something himself, lessening the impact of the first and fourth items.

I think one of those two is probable, and both are at least reasonable expectations.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on May 12, 2008 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

interesting on the defensive metrics...

very small sample size though, i’d like to see what happens tothose numbers by the end of the year

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on May 12, 2008 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was actually surprised.

I expected to at least discover that Pena was n better than Callaspo in the field, but seeing that he’s not even his equal thus far astounds me.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on May 12, 2008 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think that shows the limitation in that/those defensive metrics

I’d like to see what UZR and Dewan’s +/- have to say. In general, I think I already know.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Absolutely a fair point.

However, I will note one thing I failed to explicate above:

Not only is Callaspo’s RF better than Pena’s thus far, it’s not even close, despite the CW that Callaspo’s playing short with flyball pitchers on the hill. Pena’s RF is a play a game below the major-league average.

Callaspo’s is a play a game above.

I know this is one of your chew toys, and in the main I have been in agreement with you, but… man, it doesn’t look good.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on May 12, 2008 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Do you know what RF means?

It’s an extremely poor stat for evaluating defensive ability. In a small sample size, it is meaningless.

Anyone who watches them play can see that Pena is a much, much better defensive SS. Pena has much better range, glove and arm.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But how much better?

And is it worth the trade-off in hitting? I’m not sure it is. To just eye ball it and say, “yea Pena is better, Callaspo should not play shortstop at all” seems like what the old school baseball guys say about stealing bases and bunts and productive outs. “I’ve been watching this game for 20 years and I can tell you without a doubt that is winning baseball!” Let’s see what the numbers say. Truth is, there isn’t enough of a sample to judge Callaspo yet defensively. Some scouts think he’s no good there, others seem to think he can play it passably. I think he looks decent, not great, but adequate. I’d like to see him get a shot.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 12, 2008 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

At this point, I have no problem with giving Callaspo more time at SS than Callaspo

With Pena hitting this poorly, his defense, for the most part, does not make up for his bat. I’d definitely have Pena start at SS when Greinke and Hochevar start. I’d have Callaspo start at SS when Meche and Tomko start.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That seems backwards

Greinke is pretty neutral, or even slightly a flyball pitcher. Wouldn’t you rather have Callaspo then? Meche is a groundball pitchers, wouldn’t you rather have Pena then?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 12, 2008 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

zack is weird.

there are games where he’s an extreme groundball/no K pitcher and then games where he k’s a bunch, gives up a couple homers and a bunch of fly balls. maybe trey should just ask him what he feels like doing the day of the start and go from there

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on May 12, 2008 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I haven't really analyzed these numbers closely

It just seems like Zach has been giving up a lot of groundballs. I’m happy to alter the matchups appropriately. Whenever you expect to see a lot of ground balls and/or lots of balls put into play, I’d like to see Pena start and then get pinch hit for if/when appropriate. Callaspo can have the rest of the starts.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That was uncalled for

especially since I acknowledged the fairness of your point and stated that I have been in agreement with you re: their defense.

Yes, I know what RF means. Taken by itself, it is nearly as meaningless as fielding percentage.

I also know that if a shortstop is only making 3.5 plays a game (without regard to whether those plays are difficult or routine), then he’s absolutely not making up for hitting a buck-fifty in four PA a night, which means that having Callaspo in the game is not going to damage the defense enough to make playing Pena more sensible.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on May 12, 2008 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It really wan't intended as an insult

As I stated above, Pena’s defense is not compensating for his awful hitting. It’s just that if someone is saying that Callaspo might be nearly as good as Pena defensively, that’s simply wrong. You don’t have to be a MLB scout to see that Pena is much better defensively than Callaspo.

The point about Callaspo’s defense overall is that I don’t think he’s a long-term solution to the SS position. It’s fine for him to play that position this year. I think someone else has to be found to fill that position after 2008.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Seems awfully limiting

I’m all for looking for long-term answers elsewhere, but at least give the kid a shot before you damn him. Its not like TPJ was a long-term solution either.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 12, 2008 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think I've said repeatedly that he should get more starts at SS

Isn’t that giving him a shot? I’m just saying that my opinion right now is that he doesn’t have the defensive abilities to be a long-term solution at SS. Maybe he’ll improve or maybe I’m just wrong. Regardless, he’ll get the chance to prove himself this season at SS.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Okay.

And I’m certainly not trying to claim Callaspo “is better” than Pena by any stretch. I’m just saying that, thus far, Callaspo as (a) proven to already be a win better than Pena at the plate while (b) absolutely failing to be any worse - statistically! - at short.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on May 12, 2008 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I find it amusing...

how you pick and choose how useful defensive metrics are. Whenever someone claims Teahen isn’t a great outfielder you cite the metrics. When someone cites them to you you discredit them.

by djk royal on May 12, 2008 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

thats the prupose of stats

if you don’t got a stat to support your opinion, just make one up.

do you have any idea how arbitrary most metrics are? OPS…why are OBP and SLG weighted equally? do they really have the exact same value to the team? no, but it doesnt make it a bad stat.

by ZeppelinDZ on May 12, 2008 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not all metrics are equally useful

For instance, OPS is a good hitting metric. Batting average is an awful one. Fielding percentage and Range Factor are poor defensive metrics. UZR and Dewan’s +/- are good ones. Of course, even those who create fielding metrics recognize that fielding is the most difficult thing to accurate describe with stats and metrics, but some good advanced fielding metrics have been created.

It’s not like I stated one opinion on RF or FP in another post and then flipped my opinion for this one. Long story short, there are good advanced fielding metrics, but the old school and simplistic fielding stats stink.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not much of a stat guy.

Why is batting average so bad now?

by I need more Esteban on May 12, 2008 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Because it counts so little

Batting average measures hits per at bat. The problem with that is that it ignores walks and it equates all hits. So, BA doesn’t tell you how often a guy gets on base or the relative value of his hits. OBP covers the former and SLG covers the latter. Adding the two together gives you OPS. The problem with OPS is that OBP and SLG aren’t on the same scale and they are not equally important. OBP is considerably more important. But, OPS is an easily accesible and understandable stat. You just have to recognize that OBP is the more important element and that a .250/.350/.400 hitter is considerably better than a .250/.300/.450 hitter, even though they have the same OPS.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ok, knew some of that

some I didn’t. Another question.

.300 is a watermark for average to say, “hey, that guy had a good season.” What, if any, is the number for OBP, SLG, or OPS?

by I need more Esteban on May 12, 2008 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It really depends on the position

In the most general of terms a .750ish OPS is average. I feel like .800 is a boundary line between just ok and pretty good (it’s kind of like .275 for batting average). A couple of years ago, I crunched some numbers comparing BA and OPS from 2000 and 2005. I don’t even remember my methodology, but I found the followin equivalents:

BA – OPS
.250 – .696
.275 – .788
.300 – .882

But, of course, “average hitting” is different for every position. For corner positions, an average OPS is going to be over .800. For positions up the middle is going to be under .800. For SS and C it is going to be closer to .750.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

its not totally awful

a guy hitting 300 is a solid hitter..however, if you’ll look at other stats like OPS, you’ll see that adam dunn and his 250ish averages, you’ll see that he’s a far superior offensive player than mark teahen

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on May 12, 2008 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Homer said it best

“Oh, people can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent. 14% of people know that.”

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 12, 2008 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think he also said:

Statistics can be used to prove anything that’s even remotely true.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The anti-Hillman crowd

I don’t know that we’re genuinely anti-Hillman, but some of us are certainly a little down on Hillman. Here are the lowest ratings for Hillman from the last RCI:

ZeppelinDZ 1
royalsreview 2
NYRoyal 3.5
Blown Save 3.5
Gopherballs 4
Professor Chaos 4

Apparently jonfmorse is not the most anti-Hillman as he gave Trey a 5.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, I meant most vocal. ;)

I do think he can instruct the team, just needs more time for said instruction to show. That’s four of the five points I gave him right there.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on May 12, 2008 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Of course. ;)

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on May 12, 2008 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

At that rate, he'll be at zero by the end of the season

Trey and every other manager is going to make at least a handful of questionable pitcher-hitter matchups like that one in a season.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The minus-one isn't for making the move.

It’s for what I perceive to be the underlying thought process that led to it. He could continue to make what appear to me to be intuitively poor percentage moves regarding matchups, and it would still only be one point.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on May 12, 2008 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

my anti-hillman attititude

comes entirely from using bad base runners to steal bases. honestly, I think it is just carry-over from trying to play Japanese style ball that he will grow out of. He has the right attitude for a MLB manager tho, he just needs the experience and thus wisdom to get there. I still believe he was the right hire, but he needs to show adaptation in his skills before I will respect him properly.

by ZeppelinDZ on May 12, 2008 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Most managers think that if the team is not hitting well, you are then forced to "manufacture runs"

That really isn’t Japanese baseball; that’s standard conventional wisdom. The problem is that these small ball tactics don’t help create runs; the decrease runs scored.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i agree

i think it just gets magnified in Japan. but point being, I think Hillman will grow out of it and end up being a fine part of the team

by ZeppelinDZ on May 12, 2008 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Unfortunately, I think Hillman will only grow out of it when the team starts hitting better

Whenever they aren’t hitting well, I think he’ll keep going back to small ball.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i guess

something to watch for down the road

by ZeppelinDZ on May 12, 2008 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He has adapted...

Haven’t you noticed the dive in SB chances the past two weeks? They have barely been running at all, save that double steal a few nights ago.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on May 12, 2008 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Do you think

there is any way GMDM is wanting Trey to stick with Pena? Or is the decision to play him solely on the manager?

by I need more Esteban on May 12, 2008 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There's nothing wrong with valuing defense at SS highly

I think both Moore and Hillman were hoping that Pena would improve his hitting this season up to the point where it was acceptable giving his stellar defense. In my opinion, giving him that shot this season was a smart move. It isn’t like he needed to get his OPS up to .750. With his defense, .700 would have been more than sufficient in my mind. I’m glad they have him a shot. This is a rebuilding year. Even though it is painful to watch Pena hit, you sacrifice some wins this year to find out if players are developing or not. Tony isn’t developing at the plate. He’s regressing. He’s not a major league hitter. I’m glad they found that out. The situation will be addressed.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

the problem with hoping that he gets to 700 OPS is that

he’s never really been close…in 7 full seasons milb/mlb…expecting big improvement from a guy with his terrible approach at the plate is bad

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on May 12, 2008 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know if he even need to get to .700

And there were some positive signs last year. His best months were July and September. A little better plate discipline and a little more contact and he could have become an acceptable hitter for a guy who fields like he does at a premium defensive position. In a rebuilding year, I think he was worth a shot, at least for a couple months (particularly when the organization has no SS-of-the-future options).

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

With this lineup

If he posts a .700 OPS, he’d better be the best fielding shortstop of all-time. This ain’t 1985. We need pop.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 12, 2008 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i really like how he's used the pitchers and the lineup for the most part.

really, my only gripe with him is with regards to TPJ. It just happens that it comes up alot.

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on May 11, 2008 11:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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