Of Brett Tomko and #5 Starters

by Skirra on May 12, 2008 12:50 PM EDT

Here is a list of #5 starters and their stats sorted by FIP defined here. I tried to set 5 GS as my baseline for choosing a #5 starter. The point was to see what a #5 looked like using FIP and where Tomko fit in. If you have any complaints just list your choice for the #5 starter that you have in mind for a team along with their Team, W, L, ERA, and FIP. I will edit the post to fit them in I don't know if I included guys that are injured or have been demoted so help in that regard would be great.

I considered the order in which fangraphs had them sorted (they used win probablity added, WPA, as their criteria I did not.) In some cases I chose the guy that seemed most like a #5 to me and in the case of the Athletics I just chose one because they have a really good staff so far. In the case of the Tigers they mostly suck so I just chose they guy the Royals will face next. The Oioles didn't have 5 guys who met my 5IP criteria so I chose Trachsel because he seems like a fifth starter to me. For the Red Sox I didn't chose Wakefield even though they probably view him as their fifth starter because knuckleballers just don't compare to other pitchers very easily.

Player	Team	W	L	ERA	FIP
Clay Buchholz	Red Sox	2	2	4.5	3.17
Brett Tomko	Royals	1	4	5.67	3.37
Dustin McGowan	Blue Jays	2	3	4.47	3.64
Ghad Gaudin	Athletics	3	2	3.55	3.85
Mark Buehrle	White Sox	1	4	5.31	3.89
Miguel Batista	Mariners	3	4	5.58	4.15
Nate Robinson	Tigers	1	4	6.64	4.36
Boof Bonser	Twins	2	4	5.09	4.61
Mike Mussina	Yankees	5	3	4.36	4.81
Dustin Moseley	Angels	1	3	7.85	5.18
Matt Garza	(Devil) Rays	1	1	4.91	5.19
Paul Byrd	Indians	1	3	4.28	6.04
Steve Trachsel	Orioles	2	4	6.75	6.89
Jason Jennings	Rangers	0	5	8.56	8.02

3 recs | Comment 38 comments

Read Related

Story-email Email | Print |

Comments

Well done

I don’t think ERA should ever be ignored, but it should always be viewed in the context of important peripherals like K/9 and BB/9, as well as meaningful metrics like FIP, DERA and/or DICE. Tomko has pitched very well for a fifth starter. Hell, he’s pitched well for a fourth starter. One of the key reasons why his ERA is so out of line with his FIP is an extremely unlucky BABIP of .352

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 1:09 PM EDT 0 recs

solid, solid

a very strange group of guys actually…

Tomko is looking like better and better trade bait

by royalsreview on May 12, 2008 1:09 PM EDT 0 recs

no nl

teams? what a surprise. and also what an outrage. Iam trolling really ny royal? I actually want the royals to win. I do. I am pulling for them. i jus t dont think they are that good. and you block me just for a differing viewpoint. thats as absurd as a tomko curveball being effective.

by Billybutlerformvp on May 12, 2008 1:43 PM EDT 0 recs

you know what iam leaving this group for the rest of the season and ill be back at the

end of the season when not one royal wins 15 games and you wind up in last place again. then will see how smug you are ny royal .

by Billybutlerformvp on May 12, 2008 1:45 PM EDT 0 recs

I'm sure I'll be just as smug

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 1:47 PM EDT up 0 recs

Of that...

there is no doubt.

by djk royal on May 12, 2008 1:48 PM EDT up 0 recs

..

NY, if you ever change, I swear I’ll leave. You are such a great source of entertainment for me at work.

by ZeppelinDZ on May 12, 2008 1:48 PM EDT up 0 recs

I'm a giver

It’s pure selflessness.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 1:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

btw you never answered my final question

whats your occupation

by Billybutlerformvp on May 12, 2008 1:53 PM EDT up 0 recs

Ok, if you promise this is your final, final of the season

I’m a freelance legal consultant for nonprofit organizations. I advise nonprofit organizations and institutions in areas of incorporation, administration, fundraising and employment primarily.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 1:56 PM EDT up 0 recs

ha someonesdepressed their broke

see you in october when ill make my grand comeback and rub your face in the fact this team went no where fast. no thanks to your pearls of wisdom., btw our bet still holds buddy,

by Billybutlerformvp on May 12, 2008 2:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

Bye bye

Have fun. See ya in October. Peace, love, dope.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 2:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

NY ROYAL!

Go fill out the player performance index.. you didnt do last time and so far you havent this time!

Yasuhiko Yabuta is to Major League Baseball as Drew Carey is to The Price is Right

by focs on May 12, 2008 2:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

Sorry, I'll get on that

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 2:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

Alright thanks!

Yasuhiko Yabuta is to Major League Baseball as Drew Carey is to The Price is Right

by focs on May 12, 2008 4:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

NYRoyal

I hope you know that not all early 20-somethings are this stupid and disrespectful.

by I need more Esteban on May 12, 2008 4:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

Certainly not

This site is full of early 20-somethings who are intelligent, knowledgeable, insightful and articulate.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 12, 2008 4:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

(grins)

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on May 14, 2008 11:51 AM EDT up 0 recs

hehe

just not ready to be a royals fan

by ZeppelinDZ on May 12, 2008 1:47 PM EDT up 0 recs

it's a hard knock life, you know

Boyfriend of the Year 2008: It's gonna be big!

by loyal2theroyals on May 13, 2008 11:32 AM EDT up 0 recs

Oh, pitchers wins.

How is it that you continue to infatuate the average fan?

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on May 14, 2008 11:52 AM EDT up 0 recs

I'll miss you....hugs and kisses

jackass

Disclaimer: Comments may not be suitable for young children or women who are pregnant, or women who think they may be pregnant. Side effects could include nausea, dizziness, or yelling at the monitor in disbelief.

by MileHighKCfan on May 12, 2008 3:53 PM EDT 0 recs

Feel the love!

Hope is not a strategy. And neither is playing Tony Pena every day. (Rany Jazayerli)

by devil_fingers on May 12, 2008 10:44 PM EDT up 0 recs

Tomko

has really pitched better than I would have expected. He’s got a few tough luck losses, but his K/BB ratio really isn’t bad. I don’t think he’ll be around for very long, but for a placeholder you could do much worse.

by lordbyronk on May 12, 2008 4:08 PM EDT 0 recs

Tomko Saturday night

I wasn’t a Tomko guy originally but lately he has looked better. Besides his 1st inning mistake he pitched well. He gives you 5 solid innings with a 2 and a half hour rain delay giving up 4 runs. His pitch count is at 99 and you run him out for the sixth inning. That was a bad decision by Hillman.

by kcscoliny on May 12, 2008 4:26 PM EDT 0 recs

Paging Bill Bavasi

Tomko + Gload +Grudz = AL West Pennant!

Hope is not a strategy. And neither is playing Tony Pena every day. (Rany Jazayerli)

by devil_fingers on May 12, 2008 10:45 PM EDT 0 recs

Um, I mean "AL West Title" or "Al Pennant"

Hope is not a strategy. And neither is playing Tony Pena every day. (Rany Jazayerli)

by devil_fingers on May 13, 2008 9:31 AM EDT up 0 recs

Tomko

Tomko has a lot going for him right now—very nice K/BB rates (6.58 K/9 and 2.50 BB/9), a low HR rate (0.68 HR/9), and an above average groundball rate of 49.2% (which has helped the HR rate).

The thing that is hurting him (and which does not show up in his FIP) is his line drive percentage. His LD% is 21.2%. For a starter, you really want a rate at or under the league average of 19-20%. Based on his LD%, his expected BABIP should be around .332 (expected BABIP = LD% + .120). So while his actual BABIP of .352 is somewhat unlucky, he deserves part of the blame for the high number of hits he has given up. His true level of performance (scaled to ERA) is probably around 4.50 (or halfway between this ERA and his FIP).

by Gopherballs on May 13, 2008 12:20 AM EDT 0 recs

interesting

I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

by LeoBloom on May 13, 2008 1:06 PM EDT up 0 recs

We talk a lot about comfort level on this site.

I was thinking about mine and Tomko. It is not a secret that I really didn’t want him on the team. So, that being said, on a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being best I considered other present and former Royals and my comfort level when they played.

Darrell Mays – (-5)
Runny – 1
Dotel – 4
E. Brown – 3
Sweeney – 7
and Tomko – 6

The season is not over and he could still fall flat on his face. For now, I will enjoy his performance and bite my lip. May he continue his mediocre ways and prove me wrong as the next coming of M. Redman.

Tell 'em a hookah smoking caterpillar
Has given you the call. "

by grudz96 on May 13, 2008 11:45 PM EDT 0 recs

FIP

“The formula is (HR13+(BB+HBP-IBB)3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. “

This seems very arbitrary, and it discounts singles, 2Bs, 3Bs, etc, and LD% as Gopher suggested. I’d be interested to see how this formula was developed – I don’t quite understand the philosophy behind it.

It’s good to see, certainly, that Tomko is doing well by FIP, and I would agree that he’s pitching better than his ERA indicates. But I am skeptical, based on the formula above, that FIP is a great indicator of his true performance. Is he really the second best pitcher on that list? I’d be happy to be convinced he is, but I’d guess his true performance is only about a run better, not two runs better.

This space intentionally left blank.

by marbotty on May 14, 2008 7:31 AM EDT 0 recs

FIP is an excellent indicator of true performance, just not the exclusive one

The purpose of Fielding Independent Pitching is to look only at the things that a pitcher exercises significant control over - strikeouts, walks, and HRs - which also happen to be things that correlate strongly from year to year, so they give a good indication of future performance. As the name indicates, FIP also removes from the equation one thing over which the pitcher has no control over—defense. Because defense plays such a critical role in whether a pitcher give up a non-HR hit, FIP essentially regresses hits allowed to the major league average by leaving it out of the equation altogether. Tom Tango came up with FIP and has a very good article explaining its rationale (for some reason, the site keeps eating my link, but the page is tangotiger.net/drspectrum.html). The Hardball Times site archive also has numerous articles explaining FIP and why it works so well. Baseball Think Factory is another good source for further reading too.

While FIP is a great stat and light years better than ERA, you should still consider the balls in play data that it does not consider like LD%, GB%, and BABIP, especially when looking at a relatively small sample size like this article on Tomko. For many if not the majority of pitchers, the balls in play stats will not indicate a performance much different than FIP, but for guys like Tomko with a high LD% and an even higher BABIP, it does matter.

I know there are people working on newer versions of FIP-like metrics that do incorporate balls in play data, but they have not been widely vetted yet.

by Gopherballs on May 14, 2008 11:50 AM EDT up 0 recs

cool, thanks

This space intentionally left blank.

by marbotty on May 14, 2008 3:34 PM EDT up 0 recs

Not really sure what your point is Skirra

If “The point was to see what a #5 looked like using FIP and where Tomko fit in.” then you should have picked all # 5 guys as they come up in the rotation, or if you were looking at the worst pitcher on each staff as a #5, then you should have compared them to Meche, who currently has the worst stats of anyone in the KC rotation and has a FIP of 5.09.

by The commentator formerly known as Yoda on May 15, 2008 12:43 AM EDT 0 recs

I think the point is that Tomko is clearly the Royals #5 starter, so how is he doing compared to other #5 starters in the AL?

Determining the #5 starters on other teams is difficult, but by any methodology, Tomko compares favorably.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 15, 2008 2:07 AM EDT up 0 recs

so wrong but what can we expect

from a nitwit fool.

by Billybutlerformvp on May 19, 2008 4:25 PM EDT up 0 recs

You continue to do an admirable job

of trying to show us exactly that.

Royals, NBA, Golden Hurricane, Hawkeyes, Chiefs, and KU basketball, in that order.

by Rowyal on May 19, 2008 5:06 PM EDT up 0 recs

I don't know enough about each team

to know what their order was and I figured I could approximate what a fifth starter looked like league wide by the numbers. NYRoyal hit exactly what I was trying to do and if you have the time to figure out each rotation’s order and their stats please post it. But by that method Tomko is a #2 as he slots in after Meche who was the designated #1 at the start of the season. Another problem with that method is that the order becomes worthless as the season progresses Cliff Lee, Cleveland’s #5 , is currently an ace and Hillman said himself that if the playoffs started next week that Greinke would probably start game 1. On your other method I did try to fit expectations into determining a guy’s role. Not every guy on that list was the team’s worst pitcher and by that comparison Tomko would look even better.

The guys that I picked all have similar counting stats and in most cases are clearly not in their team’s top three (Moose excepted but as I said he was not expected to be more than a #5.) After the top three many teams have a distinct drop-off unless the team has a really bad staff (Detroit) or really good (Oakland) by the numbers. I was just going by who if the team had a choice who would be left out of a 4 man post-season rotation while sticking to my five games started criteria and discounting guys who I knew were injured or had been sent down, this was also a big factor in Moose being my # 5 for the Yankees.

Proud father of a budding Royals fan.

by Skirra on May 15, 2008 11:36 AM EDT up 0 recs