Shake things up?
by SittinByTheFoulPole on May 2, 2008 11:45 AM EDT
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PrintHere are some thoughts I’ve had recently regarding what I would do w/ the Royals if I were GM and/or Manager, for what it’s worth – which is absolutely nothing except to perhaps start some friendly debate here. This is admittedly reactionary; and probably too impulsive, but after losing 2 out of 3 from Texas I’m ready to shake things up.
Move # 1 Bench TJ (Obviously not an original idea… I think most everyone here has discussed this already). Tony only sees the field as a defensive replacement in the 8th inning or later in games we have a lead and perhaps one start a week. Also, and I think just as important, I would never, never, never put TJ and Gathright in the same starting lineup. Ever. And especially not at 9 and 1 so that you essentially have two guys back to back who can’t hit the ball out of the infield. Side note: can Greinke play short on days he’s not pitching? J Anyway, Callaspo gets the starts at short until he proves he can’t cut it. Meantime, I’m exploring all trade possibilities around the majors… I’m looking at teams like NYY, Philly, NYM, TEX, ATL, LA, ANA… anyone who has an established SS blocking a youngster.
Move # 2 With Bale essentially ready to come off the DL, I DO NOT put him back in the rotation at the expense of Hoch. I would put him in the pen and look at trade possibilities for him or Gobble. I know Philly is looking for a lefty reliever. And I’m sure they’re not the only one. Also, I give Tomko about one more start before moving him to the pen in favor of Yabuta (Omaha) and bring up Davies (Rosa gets promoted to Omaha… have you seen his AA numbers since the second half of last year? He’s ready).
Move #3 I pick a somewhat set top of the lineup and just stick with it for 10 days or so. My suggestion would be DJ, Callaspo (Grudz is great, but he’s not going to be here long), Butler, Gordon, Guillen (I’d really like to drop him further, but dang we’ve got nothing from the right side), Teahen, Grudz… and you can figure out 8 and 9 between the catchers, Gload, and German depending on who’s playing first.
Other potential longer term moves… I desperately explore the trade market for Mark Teahen and hope I can find someone willing to give up a SS, 1B or corner OF prospect. I feel somewhat guilty for souring on Teabag, but I’m just not impressed. Not that I think this is the answer, but does anyone else honestly think that Shane Costa couldn’t put up the same offensive numbers? Without looking it up, I think Teahen is hitting about .260 with one homerun and 7 RBIs… um, he’s been hitting primarily 3rd and he has 7 RBIs!? I know that says a lot about the top two in the order as well, but it also says “I don’t hit for extra bases, nor do I hit much w/ RISP.” I’m pretty sure if given regular PT, Costa could match or surpass that. One of the things I really liked about Teahen was his sneaky speed, but he’s only stolen one base so far this year. He seems to be a very good RF and currently an average to below average LF (I assume given the time, he’d be an average to above average LF). I’m just not sure that’s all that difficult to replace. Not necessarily with Costa, but with someone. But if his versatility, youth, size, speed, eye, price tag can get you something (especially when coupled with Jimmy Gobble for instance), I’d jump on it. I’d love to get Hu from the Dodgers (I don’t think Teahen is a good fit, though b/c their OF and 1B is loaded… they might need a 3B, though. Is there any chance the Angels are ready to talk about Brandon Wood? Maybe Teahen could fit in there as a supersub. It would obviously take more than just Teahen, but could we put a package together? Maybe Teahen,Gobble, and Pimental?
Okay, those are my thoughts. As I said they mean nothing, but I think it’s fun to think about. Go ahead, tear it up. Let’s hear it!
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My thoughts
I’m no Teahen fan, and I agree they should look to deal him and look for a long-term answer in the outfield, but I don’t get the Shane Costa love some Royals fans have. Costa doesn’t have power, doesn’t draw walks, doesn’t play defense well, doesn’t steal bases. All he does in the minors is hit for average – and that hasn’t translated to the big leagues in a significant number of at bats. I’m not sure what exactly he’d bring to the table that Teahen doesn’t already bring. Teahen’s average is pretty decent too – his problem is he doesn’t hit for enough power. Costa doesn’t solve that.
I guess if you’re response is that the two are interchangable so we should try to trade Teahen, I’d disagree – I think Costa is worse. Additionally, I don’t think you’re going to be getting all that much for Teahan – there doesn’t seem to be a market for his skills (and if there were, Matt Murton would be a better option).
I’m not sure what it would take to land Brandon Wood or Chin Lung Hu, I’m guessing it would take an impact player to land either. I’m sure DM is working that angle, I can’t imagine he thinks TPJ is a long-term solution, and the failure to play Callaspo leads me to believe they don’t think Alberto is a long-term solution either.
I know Royals fans are frustrated, but there are really very few quick fixes. They’re not going to sign Barry Bonds. Ryan Shealy or Shane Costa or Mike Aviles may help marginally, but not enough to make a huge difference. That’s not to say we shouldn’t try to improve the ballclub, but really these offensive concerns are going to have to be addressed at the trade deadline, or more likely, this winter when we can cut bait with some of our mediocrity and seek to dramatically improve the level of hitting talent on this ballclub.
I guess in the short term, I would start Callaspo, do my best to trade German and promote Ryan Shealy, and look for any kind of cheap, young outfield talent that can hit for power and/or draw walks (Jayson Botts?). That wouldn’t dramatically improve things, but maybe those moves, plus Guillen and Butler warming up, could at least nudge us towards something better than one friggin run in friggin Arlington.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Costa
I totally agree with you about Costa. I’m not a fan (unless I really want to see Omaha play for a PCL title b/c I think he’s a typical AAAA player). I guess the point I was trying to make via the Teahen/Costa comparison was more a knock on Teahen’s production than a plug for Costa in the lineup. If I were going to give any OF from Omaha a chance right now, I’d probably choose Maier because I think he’s superior defensively, but I don’t see that as an offensive upgrade either.
Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by SittinByTheFoulPole on May 2, 2008 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
You won't get any argument from me
About what a disappointment Teahen is. I like his plate discipline, but we need more power from a corner outfield position, and he’s beginning to show that those three months in 2006 were a mirage.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
A nice sample size illustration
After 11 games, Teahen’s SLG was .526. 17 games later, it is at .395. A month from now, his SLG could be back over .500. I think he’s hitting the ball well. His SLG will come up. How high? Very hard to say.
But if we’re trading players, I’d definitely trade DeJesus over Teahen. Teahen will show more power than DeJesus with a roughly equal OBP. And DeJesus has more trade value with his CF and “leadoff hitter” labels. And his cheap, long-term contract is more appealing as well.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on May 2, 2008 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
They are pretty similar players
The only reason I’d keep DJ over Teahen is DJ’s ability to play CF.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Reasons to keep Teahen over DeJesus
1. I think Teahen can play CF. Probably not quite as well, but not much worse.
2. I think Teahen can and will hit better than DeJesus this year and over the next several years.
3. Teahen would make a good leadoff hitter, if need be (as DeJesus has)
4. DeJesus would get us more in trade (when considering who to trade, you have to consider who would get you the best return)
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on May 2, 2008 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't disagree that much
1. Perhaps, but he didn’t take to LF very well and they’ve seemed to abandoned that – would they really put him in CF full time if they didn’t want to have him in LF full-time?
2. I disagree. Aside from a few months in 2006, Teahen has pretty much been a .280/.350/.410 type of player. DJ has been pretty much a .290.360/.430 type hitter.
3. Conversely, you could say DJ is a good leadoff hitter, meaning we don’t need a redundant player like Teahen
4. DJ probably could get us more in a trade, which just means he’s more valuable than Teahen. I think we need to hang onto our more valuable players, and trade the lesser redundant players. I’m not expecting to get a big haul for Teahen, maybe a few minor leaguers with some upside, but it would allow us to end our mediocrity and go out and find a corner outfielder that can provide the power we so desperately need.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
The thing is though
since DDJ is more valuable in the eyes of other teams, then we can get a better haul. By trading Teahen now, we would be selling very low and get very little at all. I think he could play a passable CF and be a solid #2 hitter. I don’t know if I’d want him leading off due to the K’s, but his other skills are solid and his bat wouldn’t be such a glaring weakness in CF. DDJ is one of my favorite players and I’d hate to see him traded, but if we get better talent from trading him, it improves the team and I’m all for that.
I'm beginning to think
We wouldn’t be trading Teahen low, we’d be trading him for what he is.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Yeah, there is no sign the power is coming back on
In his last 648 AB, his SLG is .407. His line for 2007 and 2008 combined is 282/354/407 in 648 AB, for a middle-infielder-like isolated power (ISOP) of .125.
BP had that great article in the offseason about the two Teahens - the one hit with power for three months in 2006 and the one who hit for little power in 2007. It noted that Teahen used a different swing to generate more loft in 2006, but seemingly abandoned it last year in favor of a line drive swing. It also cited his batted ball data - in 2006, his line drive percentage (LD%) was only 15.9%, but his fly ball percentage (FB%) was 35.4% (and his groundball percentage (GB%) was 48.7%). But in 2007, his LD% increased to 20.8% at the expense of his FB% of 29.2% (with his GB% essentially holding steady at 50.0%). This year, his batted ball data is tracking his 2007 performance—22.9% LD%, 28.9% FB%, and 48.2% GB%. If he continues to keep the 2007 line drive swing, a surge in slugging percentage much beyond his 2007 level is just not very likely.
trade value
I sort of feel like their trade value would be about even. DJ gets the nod for contract and consistency, but teahen is a couple of years younger, actually steals bases with a much higher success rate, and still has that power potential label (maybe?). Teahen is more versitile, throws better, and doesn’t have quite the injury history (well, maybe injuries are a wash). Anyway, I’m just saying. The sad reality is niether one probably has too much trade value if taken alone.
Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by SittinByTheFoulPole on May 2, 2008 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
We nearly agree
1. The Royals moved Teahen from a less defense important position (LF) to a position where defense is more important (RF). They did that because he’s a good defensive corner OFer. He was experiencing some adjustment problems in LF as he did at the start of the season in RF. If he moved to CF, he’d have to adjust to that as well. But, overall, he gets good reads and has good range. I think he’d be a pretty good defensive CFer.
2. Yes, they have been similar hitters, but Teahen has shown power potential that DeJesus hasn’t. Teahen might not be a much better hitter than DeJesus, but likely a better one. Very similar OBP and at least a little better SLG.
3. Exactly, they are redundant. They are similar players and one of them can go because they can both play CF and they can both leadoff. The question is which is the better player and which is more valuable to the team or to another team.
4. DeJesus is likely seen as more “valuable” because of labels like “CFer” and “leadoff hitter.” Teahen has neither label, but could slot into both quite easily. So, the Royals should take advantage of those labels and how important they are to some GM’s. Also, he has a good contract, which helps his trade value, but I don’t think that is reason enough to keep him. In short, I think DeJesus is the “lesser redundant player” but he’d bring more in trade for reasons that are more about labels than substance. So, we trade DeJesus, move Teahen to CF and then go out and find the good hitting corner OFer.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on May 2, 2008 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
My only...
disagreement with you is that I think you overstate Teahen’s defense. Especially his ability to read balls off the bat. I think he would be significantly worse than DeJesus in center.
Agreed
I think one of his big weaknesses is his ability to read flyballs. That’s a result of his relative inexperience. I also don’t think RF is more important than LF defensively.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I think my opinion comes from...
...how well he did in RF last year in his first season as an OFer. There was a transition period early in the season when he made some bad reads, but he quickly improved. His defensive metrics were very good. If he can get that good in RF that quickly, then I think he can continue to improve this year and become a pretty good defensive CFer.
I also don’t think RF is more important than LF defensively.
The contention that RF is more important defensively than LF is neither novel nor controversial. This is something which is agreed upon by both traditionalists and newer analysts like sabermetricians. RF is inherently more important defensively because baserunners run the bases counterclockwise. It’s all about taking third base. A good RFer has the ability to keep baserunners from going second to third. His ability to get to more balls, cut them off and get to them quickly, and his good arm will prevent that extra base from being taken.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on May 2, 2008 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
CF versus COF
I know most of you probably will not believe this, and that’s fine, but you get better reads off the bat in CF than you do in the COF positions. Everyone thinks CF is harder to play and you have to have your best OF’er in center, but that just isn’t true. I prefer playing CF over the corner spots when I’m playing OF, it’s much easier to see the ball off the bat and generally there is very little “slicing” or “hooking” of the ball.
I don’t have a link nor do I have the time to look for it right now, but last year when Teahen was learning RF he made a comment that he had an easier time in CF the few games that he started there in Spring Training because he could read the ball off the bat much easier.
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by MileHighKCfan on May 2, 2008 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll certainly buy that you get better/easier reads in CF
The issue is range. You have to have someone who can get good reads, good jumps, take the best path to the ball and have the speed to cover a lot of ground. I think Teahen can do that well. And if the reads are easier, so much the better.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on May 2, 2008 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I Never Played
CF, but I always thought it would be the easiest OF position to read the ball off the bat. Balls still slice and sink, but seemingly not with the frequency of the COF spots. Also, no one really tattoos the ball to CF the way a batter pulls the ball to either COF.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on May 2, 2008 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions
i would actually show case shealy in the hopes he gets hot
and than just dump him for a prospect
by Billybutlerformvp on May 2, 2008 12:04 PM EDT reply actions
Hillman seems inclinced to go with Move #2
Yabuta may be replaced by Bale. I would also call up Shealy as RoyalsRetro suggested if this were possible but either Gathright or German would have to go to make this happen. Joey probably has no trade value at this point. German has been sitting a lot so he is expendable but what would we get back. Ideally we could flip Grudz for a prospect but he is old and I haven’t read about a team with a glaring need at 2b. A move that I don’t think you mentioned but I would try is replace Tomko with Davies. Our best bet for the future may be to wait, showcase our excellent bullpen depth and trade one of those guys at the deadline to a desperate team for a SS or 1B that can hit and walk a few times.
Proud father of a budding Royals fan.
article
I read that about 5 minutes after I posted… guess I should check the sources better before I post, but I think that’s good to see. Maybe Yabuta can pinpoint (find) his control in Omaha and still be useful down the road.
Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by SittinByTheFoulPole on May 2, 2008 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Our offensive production from...
1b, SS and whichever corner OF spot Teahen is playing has to be improved. We may be able to sign another free agent this offseason and trade for someone to fill another slot. It would have been nice to trade for a young corner outfielder (i.e. Carlos Quentin) this offseason.
Hopefully Moore can flip some of our bullpen depth and minor league pitching into a positional prospect or two. Justin Smoak would be a 1b in the draft that could hopefully transition to the big leauges soon (polished college player that wouldn’t need a position change).
What i would do.. and what i think
Grudz needs to still bat 2nd.. no doubt.. u cant give arguable your best hitter only 3-4 ab’s a game he need 4-6
it would take a lot to get Hu from the dodgers but i would love him
Bale comes back goes in bullpen for Davies and then tomko goes to bullpen at the expense of yabuta or peralta.. then trade Mahay (not gobble he isnt worth as much) and bring up Neal Musser
Also German has to go somewhere he doesnt do shit on our team at all.. and when he does play he makes bad defensive plays and he is also 1 for 17 on the season
A lot of you wont like me... by I assure you my opinion will be voiced GO ROYALS!
Why trade Mahay?
He’s been one of our most effective relievers. 2.03 ERA, 13 K’s in 13.1 IP. Musser is a good guy to have in Omaha if/when we need a lefty. But there’s no reason to believe he’s as good as Mahay at this point.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on May 2, 2008 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Well
(and I’m pretty sure this point is made by Rany somewhere) it’s more that he isn’t really necessary on the club at the moment. Gobble would be just as good, and perhaps cheaper. Or something. Nothing against the guy, just that he’s more the type of guy you add as a finishing touch for a contender (like a utility guy) rather than a building block. Sort of a bullpen version of Gload.
by Matt Klaassen on May 2, 2008 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
If he wasn't necessary
DM wouldn’t have signed him in the first place. Obviously he thought he was necessary.
We also need to get past this perception that somehow Mahay and Gobble do the same job. They don’t Gobble is strictly a lefty-killer, your classic LOOGY. Mahay gets righties and lefties out equally well, and can be used in a variety of situations, from long relief as he was used the other night in Texas, to 7th inning set up man. He is not a strict LOOGY. You need both.
Besides, I can think of very few examples of lefty relievers garnering much in trade. You’re better of hanging onto him.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Well said
Mahay isn’t a LOOGY. He is a very different pitcher from Gobble, who is only effective against lefties. Mahay adds important depth to the bullpen. Musser, on the other hand is still a question mark as a major league pitcher. And if he’s on the major league club, there is no one behind him for depth. You can’t ever look at a major league bullpen as going 7-deep. Over the course of a season, probably twice that many pitchers will be used. Getting rid of Mahay doesn’t just mean more major league innings pitched for Musser. It also means more innings for guys like Braun and other marginal major leaguers.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on May 2, 2008 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't know if you saw...
but Braun hasn’t pitched this season and is out for the year.
Didn't know that
That makes the bullpen depth even thinner.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on May 2, 2008 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I just thought Mahay would be worth more than gobble since he is established and hasnt just had 1 good year
A lot of you wont like me... by I assure you my opinion will be voiced GO ROYALS!
He would definitely be worth more
It’s just that there’s no reason to trade him. In fact, there are good reasons to keep him.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on May 2, 2008 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
except the fact mahay is a million years old and we are not
a win now team.we are a win in 2037 team when alex gordan jr finds his power
by Billybutlerformvp on May 2, 2008 3:18 PM EDT reply actions
I'm not sure if that was meant to be serious at all
We need to win some games now. No, we’re not in contention this year. But we do need to win more games so that we look like a respectable team which isn’t too far away from contention for two reasons. First, so that attendance and TV ratings increase, thus bringing in more revenues for the team. Second, and perhaps more importantly, so that when we make the biggest contract offer to a FA, he’ll actually be willing to take it. Last year, with multiple players, that didn’t happen. FA’s took less money to play elsewhere. So, we need to win some games. Having a good bullpen helps that. It’s not like Mahay is breaking the bank with his salary. And it’s not like we’re going to get a really good player or prospect in return for him.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on May 2, 2008 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
i agree mahay will bring us fans and put us in contention
but a guy like bonds?? nahhh.. In all seriousness though I view Mahay like Dotel I am sure you can get a decent prospect for a team desperate for bullpen pitching. Like the braves or yankees who need a lhp.
by Billybutlerformvp on May 2, 2008 3:39 PM EDT reply actions
A couple things
First, Dotel was riding out a one-year contract. So he was just a 2-month rental. It makes a lot of sense to trade guys in the last year of their contract when you’re not in contention. Mahay is in the first year of a 2-year contract. Do we want to give up his pitching for next year too? Because we’re so confident in Musser? Do we really have reason to be confident in Musser? Do we really want to eschew bullpen depth?
Second, in recent years, teams haven’t been willing to trade good prospects for veteran rentals. It can be different when we’re talking about an elite player, but neither Dotel nor Mahay are elite players. So you end up getting a mediocre prospect or a project like Davies. I’m not eager to give away Mahay this year for a very small return.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on May 2, 2008 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
so if we apply your reasoning for why
we should keep mahay. Answer me why we shouldent sign a Piazza, Sosa, Bonds or Delgado(should he be available.) You could make any of them your dh and slide butler to 1st who is tolerable at 1b. so Its not like the older sluggers would take away atbats from rookies. Just Ross Gload. Than again most peoples reasoning is that we are not a win now team. I guess Tampa is a win now team even when they signed cliff floyd.
by Billybutlerformvp on May 2, 2008 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I think that's a reasonable point
Although I think Piazza and Sosa are washed up, and I’m not sure Bonds wouldn’t rather stay retired than play for KC.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
The questions are
1. How much they cost
2. How much they would help
Just because we need to win more games, doesn’t mean we should sell out everything to a win-now strategy to maximize this season’s win total. I’m not saying signing any of those guys is “selling out everything,” I just wanted to make that point. I agree with Retro that Piazza and Sosa are washed up. They stink. Adding them to the Royals doesn’t help the team, period. I’m not too excited by Delgado either. Given his age (turns 36 in June) and the fact that his last two seasons haven’t been particularly good (.781 OPS and .620 OPS), I don’t have any faith that he’s better than Ross Gload at the plate.
Bonds is the real question. He can clearly still hit. He would help the team. I’ve heard it estimated that he would add 6 wins to a team. Since 1/6th of the season is gone, that is down to 5 wins. How much would he cost? It would take some number of millions of dollars. Would that cunt into what Glass is willing to spend next year? If so, then forget it. If not, then I’d probably do it. Would he be willing to come play as a DH for a non-contender? Almost certainly not. So I think this is all moot.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on May 2, 2008 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
What did I call him?
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on May 2, 2008 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh that
I think I meant “cut.” Whoops!
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on May 2, 2008 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Royals Review is about to be added to some unexpected Google search results
Maybe Will can get the SBN guys to work on an edit button for comments.
Yeah, editing comments would be good
And, for better or worse, there will be a million google hits for the C-word before it gets to my comment. It happens to be a popular word on the internet.
I sure hope Buzz Bissinger isn’t reading Royals Review today. He’ll add me to the list of vulgar bloggers.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on May 2, 2008 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
That would be cool
Although, I don’t think Costas is going to have Bissinger back on his show. Certainly not talking about this. I also think I’m a longshot to make the show.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on May 2, 2008 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions
You should make a video
interspersing clips of Bissinger from the show with new footage of yourself responding to him, put it on YouTube, wait for one of those pop culture junk shows to make you a celebrity, and then wait for Costas to call you.
The problem is that I would have (at least attempted to) talk the calm high ground
Bissinger really lost it. He sounded like an emotional vulgarian—exactly what he accuses bloggers of being. I would have tried to just point out the fallacies in his arguments calmly, explained the differences between posts and comments, point out the value of an open forum, mention that many online newspapers allow an open forum for comments below all of their articles and comments, which leads to the same kinds of discussions, both good and bad. I would have tried to point out that there are good and bad things about the MSM and new media. Neither is all good or all bad. And pointing to a handful of vulgar comments on an open forum is illustrative of absolutely nothing about bloggers or the new media.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on May 2, 2008 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually, Tampa Bay is a win now team with or without Cliff Floyd
Barring a catastrophic injury, the Rays are going to win 84-85 games (or more).
Maybe, but maybe not
I really doubt the Rays win that many games in that division this year. I don’t think they are there yet.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on May 2, 2008 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
The rest of the division is down
Boston is as good as always, but the Yankees are being hit hard by injuries, age, and ineffectiveness, Toronto is mediocre, and the Orioles are bad.
PECOTA liked the Rays coming into the season, they are essentially matching their Pythag record, they have a surplus of minor league talent for trades, and one of the five best starters in the AL makes his first start of the year this weekend. Going from the worst defensive team in modern baseball history to above league average is huge.
I hear what you're saying
But I think the Yankees will rebound (unfortunately) and I think more than a couple of those young players are going to fall off production-wise.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on May 2, 2008 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions
They always rebound, every damn year.
by I need more Esteban on May 2, 2008 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Yup
Disclaimer: Comments may not be suitable for young children or women who are pregnant, or women who think they may be pregnant. Side effects could include nausea, dizziness, or yelling at the monitor in disbelief.
by MileHighKCfan on May 2, 2008 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions
so if someone like bartolo colon becomes availible
we shouldent sign him right we should be content to run john bale out their every 5th day… and for first base after thinking hard I came up with only one real answer.We must go after Steve Pearce. The pirates have no need for him anyway as Laroche is their 1st basemen. he hit a combined .333 with 31 home runs, 40 doubles, 113 RBI, and a .622 slugging percentage and the kid is only 25.
by Billybutlerformvp on May 2, 2008 4:52 PM EDT reply actions
Colon?
No way. His velocity is way down. He’s nothing like the pitcher he used to be. Every few starts, he’d be able to “crafty” his way into a decent outing. But for the most part, he’d just be a failure.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on May 2, 2008 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
you mean like nomo was? I mean cmon we gave him a chance your
not going to give colon a chance. despite the fact you could prob have him for league minimum and he looked good in his rehab outing .
by Billybutlerformvp on May 2, 2008 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Just because we gave Nomo a chance
doesn’t mean we should give Colon a chance. Should we give every washed up veteran pitcher a shot just because we gave one washed up veteran pitcher a shot? C’mon.
Colon wont do anyworse than bale.
I think Colon could do alot better than him seeing is how batters are hitting a minute .403 against bale this season.
by Billybutlerformvp on May 2, 2008 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Bale will pitch better going forward than he has so far this season
Gopherballs pointed out in detail that his stats really aren’t that bad. He’s had some poor batted ball luck and a variety of other key peripherals look good. Colon is out of tricks. You don’t compound the Nomo error by making it again with another player. Picking up Colon would be a desperate act of the silliest kind.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on May 2, 2008 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Who cares if Colon won't do worse than Bale?
We’re almost certainly not going to stick Bale back into the rotation. But I’m willing to bet that Colon would be a hell of a lot worse than Hochevar.
I bet colon does better than
brett tomko. why is he even on a major league pitching staff???
by Billybutlerformvp on May 2, 2008 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Because he's a pretty good pitcher
Tomko will improve. He’s had some good starts and some bad ones. He’s got MUCH better stuff than Colon right now, and with decent control. Colon.Is.Done.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on May 2, 2008 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
tomko is not going to get better hes going to get worse
as the season progresses because hes so old
by Billybutlerformvp on May 2, 2008 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions
One month
Colon DOB: 5/24/1973
Tomko DOB: 4/7/1973
Aside from his brief stint with the Dodgers...
Tomko has consistently been a sub-5 ERA pitcher his entire career. The 2/3’s of a season he spent in LA are a pretty big anomaly on an otherwise decent career stat sheet.
Colon hasn’t had a good season since 2005. He was awful in 2006 and even worse in 2007. Why do you keep pushing for the Royals to sign players based on how well they did 3-4 years ago? 3 years is a long long time in pro sports.
Have you seen where he pitched???
Tomko is 35 yrs old and when he had a sub 5 era thats because it was a mid to high 4 era and that was when he was pitching in the offensivly anemic nl west. Ill bet you guys a cold one that in the 2nd half of the season colon wins more games than tomko or bale
by Billybutlerformvp on May 2, 2008 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions
If Colon makes it to the bigs
he’ll probably win more games because he’ll have infinitely better run support than Tomko or Bale.
The guy has been injured every year since 2006 and hasn’t pitched for a month because of an oblique strain. It is a pretty low chance that he will last thru September at the MLB level, much less pitch well.
If nothing else, check out the ERA+ he has put up
That is a park and league neutral ERA. Outside of 2006, he’s been at the level of an abover average #4 SP or better the prior three years. He’s still got a plus fastball along with a good curve which McClure taught him. He’ll pitch better (as he did in his early starts this year).
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on May 2, 2008 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions
when i see brett tomko I think
barry zito called and wants his fastbal back… not because he throws slow just because it has absolutly no movement on it
by Billybutlerformvp on May 2, 2008 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions
A lot of effective fastballs don't have much/any movement
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on May 2, 2008 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions
hochevar should get more seasoning in the minors thats why
colon should be on this team. its not an inditement on hochevars stuff just him being consistent from start to start. unless you wanna rush him and make him the next phil hughes.
by Billybutlerformvp on May 2, 2008 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Colon is awful
I have no idea why you are championing him. He hasn’t been good for a while. His good pitching and good stuff are in the rearview mirror. He’s pretty useless now.
I probably disagree with you.
by Scott McKinney on May 2, 2008 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions
A lot of what has been said here has been really interesting to me
I’m feeling lazy, so instead of making tons of smaller posts all over the place, I’ll just group it into one big post.
If Teahen and DDJ really are that redundant, I’d say trade DDJ because he has more trade value. If two players are of equal worth to a team, then why keep the one with more trade value? Oh, and I absolutely do not think Shane Costa could put up the same line as Teahen. On a good day, Costa is a team’s fourth OFer. On a bad day, he’s even worse.
There is no need at all to trade Mahay, my reasons being basically what NYRoyal said verbatim.
Can we PLEASE stop talking about signing washed up veterans as a panacea for our offense of suckitude? Even if they’d only be taking ABs away from Gload, I’m willing to bet Gload will still be more effective than them (except maybe Bonds). The one thing I would suggest doing with Gload is perhaps to stick him in a platoon situation with Butler at 1b—that is, w/ LHPs, Gload plays first while Butler DH’s, and w/ RHPs, Butler takes first while someone else DH’s. For a left-handed batter, Gload hits left-handed pitching surprisingly well (he has a career line of .335/.356/.458 with a .814 OPS against lefties).
I will continually argue that the Royals should trade for a blocked MLB-ready SS prospect like Chin-Lung Hu.
I think someone mentioned the possibility of drafting Justin Smoak—I like him a lot, but he is not going to help our offense right away. The soonest he would be MLB-ready is 2010, at which point we should know if, a) Butler can actually play 1b or not, and b) if Shealy and/or Stodolka can handle MLB-level pitching.
The Gload-Butler platoon is already happening
with Olivo as the right-handed DH. As useless as Olivo is against RHP, he can hit LHP just fine.
Really?
Gload has been playing a lot—have the Royals faced that much left-handed pitching this year? I haven’t been paying super-close attention to that, so that very well could be the case.
darth I doubt Gload can hit over
20 hrs like sosa and Bonds did last yr.
by Billybutlerformvp on May 2, 2008 4:59 PM EDT reply actions
I'm not looking solely at homers
Sosa’s OBP is abysmal—it is why, despite hitting 21 bombers, his OPS+ barely broke 100 last year. The last time Sosa had a remotely good year OBP-wise was 2003. Gload’s OBP isn’t a ton better, but it is better. And if GMDM is willing to shell out more money just so this lineup can feature another total OBP sink, he needs his head examined.
I agree that Bonds can still hit, but I agree with NYRoyal, it is probably a moot point.
Thing about Sosa
he’s a pretty severe platoon player at this point in his career. He’s helpless against RHP, at this point in his career. In 2007 676 OPS against righties, 1024 against lefties. Didn’t play in 2006. In 2005, 606 against righties, 841 against lefties. The last year he put decent numbers against righties was in 2004, which was also the last year he had an acceptably decent year, and was good enough to be an everyday player. If you sign him, you am going to need a platoon partner for him.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
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