Still Confident? I Am, And Here's Why
From today's Kansas City Star :
“Dayton Moore has done a great job of building [the team] and designing it,” [George] Brett said. “You’ve got a good rotation with young guys who can come out and beat you any given night.
“And I really think another major piece has been Joakim Soria. He may have some off nights every now and then, but he gives the team a sense of confidence it hasn’t had for a long time.”
Shoring up the closer’s role and signing Soria to a long-term deal was key, Brett said.
“There is nothing more devastating to a baseball team than a blown save,” Brett said. “You’re bound to get some. When you have a 3-2 lead and you think you have it wrapped up and the next thing you know, you lose 4-3, it’s devastating.
“With Soria, we haven’t had that hardly at all. I remember talking to (manager) Mike Scioscia of the Angels last year, and he was so impressed when we had Zack Greinke and Soria in the back of the bullpen. He’d say, ‘You guys turn games into seven-inning games.’ ”
It was just yesterday (or the day before) that I argued that Soria shouldn't go to the rotation. I cited the calamity that is a blown save, and the positive results of a shortened sense of opportunity for the opposing team.
It's nice to see George backing me up. - TL
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I was on the fence...
before but because George said it that makes it irrefutable.
by djk royal on
May 20, 2008 11:26 AM EDT
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I dont see how you can deny that being a starting pitcher is more valuable then pitching 1 inning maybe 3 times a week
if it fails then he can go back to the closers role.. i just dont understand how your not willing to try it… we have Ramon Ramirez who is been outstanding too.. the only runs that have scored on him with the exception of maybe 1 were all inherited runs that someone else gave up for him..
Yasuhiko Yabuta is to Major League Baseball as Drew Carey is to The Price is Right
by focs on
May 20, 2008 11:45 AM EDT
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We actually have...
...right now, enough starting pitching. When a team gets the performance out of Tomko that this team has, who do we need to replace—-Meche, Greinke, Bannister, Tomko, or Hochevar? I can see Soria being better than Bannister, but why take Bannister out. – TL
by timlacy on
May 20, 2008 1:39 PM EDT
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I don't think anyone is arguing that Soria should be in the rotation for the remainder of the season
I think the smart plan is to slowly work him into the rotaiton and slowly build up his innings. So the issue isn’t who is he better than that is in the rotation right now (and I think he’d be better than Tomko). The issue is who he better than after the 2008 season. I think he’s better and cheaper than the other alternatives for the 5th starter spot for 2009 and beyond. And once his stamina is built up, he can give 180+ genuinely good innings as opposed to some other 5th starter who would likely give 150 not good innings.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 20, 2008 1:42 PM EDT
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Soria's probably...
...two seasons away from being the starter that statisticians would predict. By that time we may need him, and may have developed another lock-down, automatic bullpen guy. So I’m willing to have this conversation in the spring of 2010, perhaps. – TL
by timlacy on
May 20, 2008 1:45 PM EDT
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im hoping for 09..
Greinke, Meche, Bannister, Soria, Hochevar…
Carlos Rosa, Ramon Ramirez, or Leo Nunez the closer
Yasuhiko Yabuta is to Major League Baseball as Drew Carey is to The Price is Right
by focs on
May 20, 2008 3:37 PM EDT
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we have way more than enough pitching...
we need to score…we are 1 bat away…I never thought Teahen/Butler/DDJ could put up such lackluster numbers…we need a bat…Jason Bay/Matt Holiday…if it was me I’d sign Barry Effing Bonds
Don't be lonesome for your heroes. Be your own hero.
by PhattStairs on
May 21, 2008 11:19 PM EDT
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Meh
George also thinks we can win the division, so I’m not sure he’s speaking with clarity here. Blown saves suck, but so do terrible outings by your starting pitchers. Gimme Soria in the rotation and Nunez and/or Ramirez closing things out.
BTW, Flanagan is very much advocating for Soria to stay in the pen, so he’s going to cherry-pick quotes that support his argu]ment.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
May 20, 2008 11:48 AM EDT
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I didn't know that...
...Flanagan was consistently advocating for the same thing.
Still, I would rather hear about the psychology of the game from a guy like Brett than a bunch of anonymous blogosphereians (you not included in this group). – TL
by timlacy on
May 20, 2008 1:37 PM EDT
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It would be absolute stupidity not to give Soria a shot
at starting. There’s nobody in the world (sorry George) who is going to convince me that a closer is more important than a dominant starter. That just makes no sense. I love watching Soria come out to pitch, but it kills me that we only get to see him for one inning. We need to start looking at giving Ramirez and Nunez some save ops while letting Soria pitch a few more innings.
by royaldaddy on
May 20, 2008 11:59 AM EDT
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Classic...
...overstatement. Ramirez and Nunez are very good, but they’re not lock-down, dominant bullpen guys. – TL
by timlacy on
May 20, 2008 1:38 PM EDT
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I don't think he said they were lock-down, dominant bullpen guys
But they have been damned good, with lots of K’s, few walks and small ERA’s. That isn’t good enough for a closer? I could name a dozen or more closers with worse stats so far.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 20, 2008 1:44 PM EDT
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Check out their splits too
Both are pitching well against left-handed hitters. A high leverage reliever needs to get opposite-handed batters out consistently.
by Gopherballs on
May 20, 2008 1:48 PM EDT
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I'm not opposed...
...to working Nunez and Ramirez into a few save situations, but it’ll take a few seasons before we figure it all out and have the confidence Soria already has. – TL
by timlacy on
May 20, 2008 1:49 PM EDT
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How long did it take to figure out if Soria had the confidence?
Or Joe Nathan? Or any closer?
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 20, 2008 2:02 PM EDT
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Which is fine anyway
Because it will probably take a few seasons for Soria to transition to full-time starter.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
May 20, 2008 2:04 PM EDT
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Does it necessarily take that long?
I remember when Kelvim Escobar was Toronto’s closer. He wasn’t so hot at it, so they moved him into the rotation. They didn’t send him down. He just started starting. The first few starts were shorter (5 innings) and stuff, but it didn’t take that long. And he turned out to be a very good (albeit oft-injured, although that was always true of him) starter.
I’m not saying Soria would follow the same timetable, I’m just wondering if it would really take a few seasons, or just a portion of one. I can’t imagine that it would take more than one season.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
May 20, 2008 2:35 PM EDT
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He could make the switch right now...but it wouldn't be the best way to do it
There’s been a lot of research done which shows there is a big injury risk when you greatly increase a pitchers innings pitched from one season to the next. So, in short, we shouldn’t go from Soria being a full-time closer this year to him being a full-time starter next year. If he were to go from 75 ip this year to 180 next year, there would be a significant injury risk, which the Royals should avoid.
The plan I would follow is stretching him out with longer relief outings in the second half of this year, and giving him some spot starts to increase his IP to around 100. Then next year, I’d split him between the bullpen and rotation, getting his IP up around 130. The following year he could go up to around 175 innings.
Unfortunately, I don’t think many (any?) organizations monitor IP that closely, so I don’t think this plan will be followed. The early part of my plan might be what the Royals do. But, if he pitches really well as a starter next year, I could see them just keeping him in that role, regardless of the IP he racks up.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 20, 2008 2:41 PM EDT
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Better safe than sorry
I’d like to see him get a few September starts, stretch him out a bit more in 2009, then have him full-time as starter in 2010.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
May 20, 2008 2:41 PM EDT
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OK
Thanks, both NYRoyal and RoyalsRetro, for replying. I guess I was (perhaps misreading) taking it that some people thought that it would take several seasons for him to be a starter. well, I guess that it the case if he isn’t up to being full-time until 2010. But on NYRoyals hypothetical scenario, it seems like he could be going pretty much full-time by the second half of next season, which would be nice.
As I’ve said elsewhere, for all the good stuff that’s happened with the Royals’ pitching this year, when I look down the road, the only pitcher out of their current whom I have real confidence in to maintain a high level of performance is Greinke. Again, not that Meche isn’t good, or that Bannister might be for real, or that Hochevar will develop, but it isn’t as if the Royals can really be saying “we’re set for the next two years,” either.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
May 20, 2008 2:48 PM EDT
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In today's game I would argue that closer is more important...
than at least a number 2 starter…we have the starting pitching…leave the bullpen alone…in today’s game the 8th and 9th innings seem to me what separates most teams…you have a good game and its gonna stay that way…I don’t know what to say that hasn’t been already said…Scioscia was dead on…when we had Greinke and Soria it was lights out…we already got Greinke converted so we saved Soria to be closer…don’t EFF with it…in today’s world its if your good at something ride it out and don’t eff with it…you’ve got one of the top five closers in the game at this moment and you’d want to make him a starter…seriously, I’m no stat whore, but that is the most ludicrous common topic we’ve ever discussed on here…I have full faith that the Royals will be smart and keep him as a closer…he just has the mentality…I understand the just-try-it-and-see-if-it-works-and-if-not-then-back-to-pen routine…but I don’t trust anyone else to CLOSE THE DOOR…and say we did try him as a starter and that messed up his ability to be a closer?...I think we are just caught up in how amazing he is and think that we might as well make him an ace…well I’m here to tell you that he may be an ace, but how many people can go 17 appearances without a run allowed…what a COUPLE?...he might be Johan Santana-esque as a starter, but when your that good, I mean that good, as a closer, I say don’t even fuss with it…it would be like everytime a closer got good, he would be too good and then back to starter…thats not how it works…if he starts blowing a save every other night, then yeah, put his many pitches to work as a starter…until then ride this baby out…I could only see him as a starter if we signed a top 3 veteran closer like Rivera/Wagner/Papelbon
Don't be lonesome for your heroes. Be your own hero.
by PhattStairs on
May 21, 2008 11:37 PM EDT
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Heck, let's follow the logic out
Mike Scioscia (who played the game, and isn’t some bean counter sitting in his mom’s basement) is also cited as an authority in that article. Looks like the Royals made a big mistake moving Zack into the rotation. Should have him setting up for Soria still. DMGM is killing this organization by his lack of concern for endgame pitching.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
May 20, 2008 12:08 PM EDT
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Know who else played the game and was a pretty good third baseman?
Buddy Bell. Greinke in the rotation. Bell fired. Hell in a hand basket, I tells ya.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
May 20, 2008 12:09 PM EDT
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But did he play at the University of South Florida?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
May 20, 2008 12:14 PM EDT
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D-I batboys, the gift that keeps on giving
I don’t personally know any of them.
However, with my years of reading the works of L. Ron Hoover of the Church of Appliantology, I decided to do an exercise to figure out a new winning strategy for the Royals by tapping this under-utilized source of wisdom.
After subsisting on low-protein gruel all morning, I emerged from my mother’s basement to sit in the sauna (closed the bathroom door, put a towel over the crack, cranked up the shower as hot as it would go. Sat on the toilet [low-protein gruel has a lot of fibre]), and exteriorized.
I was 3 feet back of my head, then I was floating. I began to fly. Through the walls I went. I was like Horatio Caine without the sunglasses, speeding to where I could get the information I needed. After a quick stop at Hemet, CA, I tripled the speed of sound on my way to South Florida. From far above, I spotted a swampy baseball diamond. Lighting there, I spotted the wise man from whom I would gain the knowledge I needed. The older man in the manager’s uniform—he was standing between my disembodied self and the person with whom I needed to speak.
Yes, it was the young man who had the knowledge I needed. His arms were bearing a pair of bats in one hand, a bag of balls in the other. His face was clear and pale (when not spray-tanned, I gathered), yet when he turned around, I could see what appeared to be scores of pimples through his greasy white practice jersey. Why did a batboy need a practice jersey? I had no time to to ponder such questions, however, as my energy for exteriorization was running low. I know not how he sensed by presence.
“Greetings, traveller,” he drawled. “I gots here the knowledge you seek.”
“You wanna maximize yer pitching talent, right? Well, you gotta tell Moore to stop screwing with yer ‘pen. He’s goin’ backwards. In fact, I thunk it over and I came up with a strategery that will gay-run-tee the Royals will shut the other guys down. Mock it up yourself. If having a real shut-down closer makes the game eight innings, wouldna shut-down set-up guy make it a seven inning game? That what you there had when Zack was setting up for Sora. Let’s carry that reasonin’ out to its logical whatfor. Why not have Meche pitch the seventh? And when Hooch is well-done, he can pitch the sixth! I don’t trust that Bannister fella. He may play the game, but with all the textin’ that fat lil’ fella and the numbers and the nerds in the blogs, I’d trade him fast to free up money what for to re-sign a good defensive first baseman to a big extension. But think about it: Hooch, Meche, Greinke, Soria. That four innings of shut-down relief! I’m not even sure I could hit a rope one out of every six times agin’ those dudes! All you gots to do is get some starters, it doesn’t matter where. John Bale, Kyle Davies, they’ll prolly do. They just needs to go five! And who cares about those parts the game. The closer to the end, the more valuble they is. And you wastin’ ‘em in the beginning of the game! Get those worthless innins’ down to five, and you can gay-run-tee the boys will be dominatin’ like the 1996 Yanks in no time. Hoo-wee!”
I had so many more questions. How would I ever transmit this wisdom to the blog world? Would anyone believe me? After all, although I talked to someone who had played the game a little bit at some point, I had not. As I faded, I faintly heard my interlocutor shouting ”....will explode!!! 1111!!!” (That’s right, I heard the 1s.)
It was dark. Three feet back. I was in my body, re-awakening to my limited, meat body. And then I heard a beautiful, shrieking voice.
It was my mother.
“Devil _. Fingers! You in the bathroom AGAIN, boy? I’m here watchin’ my stories and you either on that computer box downstairs or in this bathroom again. You better not be usin’ my nice towels. I know what you do in there!”
I was home.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
May 20, 2008 12:55 PM EDT
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Creative? Yes.
Awesome? No. I thought it was somewhat boring. – TL
by timlacy on
May 20, 2008 1:48 PM EDT
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Nice to know...
I still think it was awesome.
by djk royal on
May 20, 2008 1:54 PM EDT
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L Ron Hoover was a visionary
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by marbotty on
May 20, 2008 3:42 PM EDT
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this was supposed to be a reply to devil_fingers, not the OP. Sorry, Tim. ;)
Sarcasmâ„¢. It's the new gravy.
by jonfmorse on
May 20, 2008 1:35 PM EDT
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No problem...
...because devil fingers seems to have a lot of time to figure things out. – TL
by timlacy on
May 20, 2008 1:40 PM EDT
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There's a reason George has never become a manager
Great players do not always know everything about great baseball. (See Joe Morgan).
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 20, 2008 1:43 PM EDT
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Well, Morgan seems to know a lot about Gary Sheffield
You can’t say he isn’t consistent!
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
May 20, 2008 1:43 PM EDT
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Conceded
But, you have to believe that Brett would be more fun to listen to than Morgan. Plus, I’m only advocating that we trust Brett with regard to psychological aspects of the game. I have every confidence that he’s winner in that regard, if not Xs and Os. -TL
by timlacy on
May 20, 2008 1:46 PM EDT
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Should we trust that the psychological effect of an elite closer is worth more than the fewer Runs Scored the team would have with him as a starter?
I say no.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 20, 2008 2:06 PM EDT
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+1
Really hard to see me agreeing with that, wasn’t it? :P
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on
May 20, 2008 2:07 PM EDT
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For me it all comes down to:
If you have to choose for your team one of the two following options, which do you pick?
Choice A
An elite closer and an average back-of-the-rotation SP
or
Choice B
A pretty good closer and a good SP
I’d take Choice B every day of the week and twice on Sundays.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 20, 2008 2:20 PM EDT
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Working twice as hard...
on Sundays would displease Dayton. Don’t you know you’re supposed to honor the sabbath.
by djk royal on
May 20, 2008 2:25 PM EDT
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As a collolary
(and I mean this in agreement) so much of the discussion assumes that Soria would be a no. 5 pitcher, whatever that really means. But isn’t it true that people who see him as a starter see him as potentially much better than that? We aren’t talking about adding a Jesse Litsch here, but potentially an A. J. Burnett.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
May 20, 2008 2:50 PM EDT
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A.J. Burnett
probably not a bad stat comp, whip of 1.2 with era+ of 115, that number 2 or good number 3.
by ZeppelinDZ on
May 20, 2008 3:24 PM EDT
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My point is that he would be effectively replacing the #5 starter
Even if he pitches like an ace, the pitcher he would be knocking out of the rotation would be the #5 SP.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 20, 2008 4:36 PM EDT
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K
yeah, that makes sense. I was thinking about it the other way round (a nice way of saying “ass-backwards.”) I was charging the windmill of someone thinking “hey, Tomko is an adequate #5 starter, and we’ll have Banny/Hochevar in there soon, so why bump Soria up.”
Wow, as confused as my arguments sometimes are, it seems that I have an even harder time agreeing.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
May 20, 2008 4:40 PM EDT
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It seems like I never agree with anyone
...but really I do sometimes :)
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 20, 2008 4:42 PM EDT
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Yeah, but it gave me such a warm fuzzy down below
Woah! I mean lower on the thread, when you “echoed” me and gopherballs.
Wow. Just got really uncomfortable in here.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
May 20, 2008 4:43 PM EDT
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Blog foul
“warm fuzzy down below”
This is your official warning. You’re on probation.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 20, 2008 4:48 PM EDT
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If I bat boy for S. Florida for the next two seasons
can I get it off my permanent record?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
May 20, 2008 4:55 PM EDT
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Definitely
...as long as you don’t develop any “warm fuzzy down below” attachments to any of their players. That has proven to create problems on this site.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 20, 2008 5:04 PM EDT
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Yeah, that ruled
I miss those days. What was it, 1 week ago that the last outbreak occurred? Is there some sort of RR Hall of SH/Fame? The nickname was perfect, too.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
May 20, 2008 5:11 PM EDT
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We try not to speak their names too often
It’s like that horror movie (Candyman?), where if you say it’s name three times, it comes to get you.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 20, 2008 5:27 PM EDT
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Karma for "Candyman" ref
Saw that movie a few years back. I’m grown, but it was the middle of the night, I was by myself, and it scared the shit out of me.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
May 20, 2008 5:30 PM EDT
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I try to avoid horror movies
Even the bad ones leave a lingering bad feeling and often give me bad dreams. I actually had a zombie nightmare after seeing “Shaun of the Dead.” True story.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 20, 2008 5:34 PM EDT
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Shaun of the Dead
is really good, though. Most horror movies fall within the parameters of Sturgeon’s Law.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on
May 21, 2008 4:07 PM EDT
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sunday = best day for a doubleheader
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by marbotty on
May 20, 2008 3:43 PM EDT
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Trying to come up with a line
about how we should be saving Sunday evenings for more important games, or activities, or something. Can’t. That’s fine, it’s annoying when people coattail on others’ jokes, anyway.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
May 20, 2008 4:45 PM EDT
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It seems to me that...
...if every team followed this logic, there’d actually be no elite closers. Why? I’ll bet that every single elite closer, if converted to a starter, would probably be at least a #3 starter. If there are no elite closers, then we’re all saying that Brett is full of crap. I won’t risk that. – TL
by timlacy on
May 20, 2008 4:14 PM EDT
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Mariano Rivera wouldn't have been
He was already a failed starter. One pitch (two if you count his occasional 4-seamer).
Not Trevor Hoffman, either (another guy with a limited number of pitches: changeup and a crappy fastball).
Bobby Jenks had already flamed out as a starter for the Angels.
The first two are certainly elite, the third is no slouch. I doubt any of them could cut it as a #3 starter (to be fair, i don’t know Hoffman’s early history off-hand, but his limited repertoire makes me think it wouldn’t work. I’m open to correction here.)
These are just three off the top of my head. I imagine there are numerous other examples.
Oh, yeah, Goose Gossage was a guy who failed when tried as a starter. I think he turned out to be an OK reliever.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
May 20, 2008 4:35 PM EDT
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Dan Quisenberry
could not have been a starter either.
And since Dan Quisenberry informs every word George Brett speaks on the topic of great closers, that sort of closes the book on it.
Sarcasmâ„¢. It's the new gravy.
by jonfmorse on
May 20, 2008 7:51 PM EDT
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Soria's three-pitch repertoire makes him the exception to most closers
Most closers became relievers because they lacked the secondary pitches necessary to succeed as a starter, including an adequate change up or curve to keep opposite handed batters off balance. Soria is the exception in that he throws three quality pitches, including a curve and a change, and does not rely on mere velocity to succeed (as relievers almost always lose some velocity when pitching longer outings as a starter).
by Gopherballs on
May 20, 2008 4:37 PM EDT
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I'm going to echo what devil_fingers and gopherballs said
Many great relievers (closers or not) don’t have what it takes to be a successful starter. To be a successful SP, you have to have the strength and stamina to throw 100+ pitches. And, more importantly, you have to have good secondary pitches. The first time through a lineup, one great pitch (which is what most elite closers have) is enough to get everyone out. But the second, third and fourth times through the lineup, you’ve got to have more. Major league hitters will get the timing down on your fastball. They’ll get used to when and how your breaking ball breaks. They’ll get used to the look and timing of your changeup. If you’re relying on just that one (or two) great pitch(es), you’re going to get hammered the second or third time through the lineup. Good SP’s have more than one good pitch. They’ve got breaking balls and offspeed pitches to compliment their fastballs. They’ve also got good control which is at more of a premium for starting pitchers. Soria has all of these things. I wouldn’t say that most closers have what it takes to be a good SP. I think Soria does.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 20, 2008 4:41 PM EDT
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Huh? Won't risk what?...
are you afraid George will get mad at you? Pretty sure George doesn’t read Royals Review. It’s okay to say you don’t agree with great baseball players.
by djk royal on
May 20, 2008 4:23 PM EDT
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you're going to hell
don’t blame anybody but yourself :P
but seriously, for as good of player that brett was, there isn’t any reason to think he knows how to build a successful baseball team more than the 1000s of other pro baseball players.
by ZeppelinDZ on
May 20, 2008 4:47 PM EDT
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I think Brett is repeating the current baseball orthodoxy
...about how crucial it is have as good of a closer as possible. For the past 15 years or so, closers have been wildly overvalued in MLB. Traditional baseball orthodoxy has been shown to be wrong many times. This is one of many such occurrences.
Also, I think Brett was mostly just saying something really positive about a Royal who just signed a long-term contract. Soria’s a good pitcher, the Royals just locked him down long-term, so Brett says how great he is and how important he is to the team. In Brett’s defense, he wasn’t speaking directly to the issue of how important a closer is vs. a SP.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 20, 2008 4:52 PM EDT
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George is my...
favorite player ever. I’m just not sure its logical that if you ever disagree with any of his quotes that means you think he is full of crap. It’s okay to disagree. I know you personally never disagree with others but you can probably see what I’m saying.
by djk royal on
May 20, 2008 4:56 PM EDT
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I agree
Even if George were a great baseball mind who was well versed in the ways of building a winning team and handling a pitching staff, we could still disagree with him, and he could still be wrong. Intelligent baseball minds often disagree. There are no trump cards. There are no final words. If Bill James came out tomorrow and said, “I’ve crunched the numbers and I’m confident that Soria would be much more valuable to the Royals as a closer than as a SP,” I would disagree with him. Now, I’d read what he had to say, analyze it and include his opinions, along with the opinions I’ve read elsewhere into my own analysis. But his opinion, just as with the opinion of a HOFer and hero, wouldn’t be dispositive of the issue in and of itself.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 20, 2008 5:08 PM EDT
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In my defense, I was...
...only citing Brett as an authority on the psychology of the game. On that matter I have a great deal of confidence in his opinions. If he says that having a crappy closer is incredibly damaging, I’m inclined to agree. If he says having an average closer is okay, I’d buy it. It seemed to me, however, that he was specifically addressing the need for an above average to elite closer (i.e. Soria), so I’ve structured my comments (and praise in the original post) accordingly.
George Brett is absolutely my favorite all-time player, but I’ve been careful not to use terms like “always,” “ever,” “absolutely,” etc. I simply wouldn’t risk a big disagreement on an issue that deals with individual or team psychology. If Soria keeps us winning, then by all means keep the guy in the closers role. We’re nearly a .500 team, and could get better if our offense started clicking. The White Sox are not world beaters, which means we really could be in the thick of things until September. – TL
by timlacy on
May 20, 2008 6:10 PM EDT
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With regard to the psychological effects of closers
Don’t you think that it affects different players in different ways to different degrees. Apparently it was a big deal to Brett. Does that mean it’s a big deal to all or most players?
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 20, 2008 7:05 PM EDT
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This is a clearly...
...valid point. Please allow me to use the Cubs as an exemplary cautionary tale.
Before installing Dempster as closer in 2005, the Cubs tried a kind of by-committee scenario in 2004 using several above average relievers (Hawkins, Borowski (injured), Farnsworth, Dempster, Leicester, Rusch, Remlinger, Mercker). Yes, Hawkins got the most save opportunities, but he was (and is still is not, I believe), cut out to be a closer. Dusty kept experimenting during the season, and many of those pitchers were above average (Hawkins, Farnsworth), but the unsettled role contributed to a mediocre season and, I think, to a lack of confidence down the stretch (during a disastrous Sept. collapse).
Now I realize this isn’t a perfect analogy. But that team lacked a lockdown closer, even though it had several above average bullpen guys. The whole team, as a consequence, toiled through a long year and mentally, I think, collapsed down the stretch. There were other contributing factors (i.e. Wood and Priory in-and-out of the disabled list), but the glaring weakness in the closer position clearly hurt that team. That’s why the team rejoiced so much in 2005 when Dempster flourished a closer.
In sum, based on Brett’s observation and my personal history of observing the Royals and Cubs (dating from 1977 and 1982, respectively), having a lockdown closer matters a great deal—-when other factors are solid as well. It’s a crucial position on the team, even if we both know that “team,” by definition, includes a number of crucial roles (including having above average starting pitching). – TL
by timlacy on
May 21, 2008 12:36 PM EDT
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And now
Dempster is 5-2 with a 2.70 in ten starts as a starter again. I think he’s far more valuable in this role.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
May 21, 2008 12:45 PM EDT
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But Dempster...
...was not the lockdown closer that Soria is. Dempster walked too many batters, and is pitching better this year than he ever has. I don’t think it’s fair to compare the Soria situation to Dempster’s (starter, elbow blow out, reliever for one really good year, average the next, then okay, and now starter). – TL
by timlacy on
May 21, 2008 1:00 PM EDT
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Wait a minute
In all sincerity, aren’t you the one who brought up the Dempster/Cubs comparison in the first place? I’m confused as to what point you’re trying to make with that, if not this.
Probably should try reading this when I’m not editing/listening to music/hungry all at the same time, but there’s a bit of cognitive dissonance for me.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
May 21, 2008 1:19 PM EDT
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If you read the..
...11:36 am comment above carefully, I was comparing the overall Soria situation, based on the psychology of a team in relation to a strong closer, to the Cubs situation in 2005. Dempster was only an accessory to that story, not the focus. -TL
by timlacy on
May 21, 2008 3:30 PM EDT
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Plus, Dempster...
...wouldn’t be as valuable if the Cubs hadn’t developed Marmol (who has Soria-type ability) and had Wood coming back. Neither Marmol nor Wood walk many batters. In sum, I believe we’re comparing apples and oranges with Soria and Dempster. – TL
by timlacy on
May 21, 2008 1:01 PM EDT
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whether or not you move soria to the rotation,
i think the letdown of repeatedly losing games late is pretty clear, albeit not sabertastically evident. you can say ramirez or nunez can close, but for a team on the cusp as the royals are, they better be lights out or the move is not worth it, imo.
by 390 on
May 21, 2008 1:18 PM EDT
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I definitely...
...agree with you. If you read all my posts above, I’m arguing for keeping Soria in the role as long as needed. There should be no automatic, pre-formulated chronology for getting him into the rotation. Let our bullpen guys develop, as well as the 5 promising guys currently rotating, before even considering the change. – TL
by timlacy on
May 21, 2008 3:32 PM EDT
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Is Tomko...
promising? If you don’t consider the change now it will probably never happen. It takes too long to stretch a young reliever out to wait a few years and then do it. More innings are pitched as a starter than a reliever. Even factoring in the leverage of important innings a club is better served having a good starter than a dominant reliever.
If you want to start factoring in “psychology” and all that I’m pretty sure it’s not good for the psyche to be behind early all the time while your best pitchers are sitting in the bullpen.
by djk royal on
May 21, 2008 3:54 PM EDT
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We are "behind early all the time"...
...because our offense stinks, not because our best pitchers are all in the bullpen. Period. – TL
by timlacy on
May 21, 2008 3:56 PM EDT
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Well then...
if we’re behing all the time a dominant closer being greater than a starter is even more absurd.
by djk royal on
May 21, 2008 3:57 PM EDT
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As long as needed?
How do we know how long that is? Until we think someone else is ready to be a good closer? How in the world will we know that? Nunez and Ramirez are dominating right now. How long do they have to pitch like that before we think they have enough heart, grit, moxy and chutzpah to be closer?
But I think this is thinking about it completely backwards. A starting pitching role is more important to the team than the closer role. So, waiting until we have just the perfect person to take over the closer role before moving Soria is the tale wagging the dog.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 21, 2008 3:59 PM EDT
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Only if you...
...throw out pitch-count limitations on starters. – TL
by timlacy on
May 21, 2008 4:01 PM EDT
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No, not at all
That really doesn’t make any sense.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 21, 2008 4:07 PM EDT
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Please explain.
From my angle, you could have 5 excellent starters, but probably none of them--based on current pitching trends—can throw a complete game. In fact, most can only finish about 7 innings. This means you’re giving the opposing teams 2 innings worth of chances off your bullpen.
Let’s say you finish the 7th inning with a 3-2, 3-1, or 3-0 lead. Since most average, or even above average closers, have about a 3.5 era, then you’re surely taking your chances in your last two innings. This means you have to have at least one lockdown, dominant closer to get the save or the hold. One of the two must be exceptional. – TL
by timlacy on
May 21, 2008 4:15 PM EDT
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Ok
Let’s say you finish the 7th inning with a 3-2, 3-1, or 3-0 lead. Since most average, or even above average closers, have about a 3.5 era, then you’re surely taking your chances in your last two innings. This means you have to have at least one lockdown, dominant closer to get the save or the hold. One of the two must be exceptional.
If the Royals were guaranteed to have many, many tied or 1-run games in the last couple of innings, then I would agree that a dominant closer (as well as some good set up men) would be critical. But that just isn’t the case for the Royals or for any team. The reality is that those high leverage situations just aren’t common enough for them to be more important than having more good SP innings.
The Royals situation with having SP’s usually go 6-7 innings isn’t rare. That is true for every team. The Royals situation doesn’t make having a good closer more important. Like every team, the Royals would benefit from allowing fewer runs. Moving Soria to the rotation (the right way) would help the Royals win more games.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 21, 2008 4:23 PM EDT
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Just to clarify:
...I’m not talking about “many, many tied or 1-run games” in a major league season. As we all know, a little less than 60 games separate the best from the worst teams each season.
In those 60, probably 30 or less involve 1, 2, or 3-run wins. It’s for those 30 games that guys like Soria, Wood, Nathan, Rivera, etc. earn the big bucks. It’s for those 30 games that you want a lockdown closer. – TL
by timlacy on
May 21, 2008 4:40 PM EDT
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Ok
Let’s say 30 or fewer involve 1, 2, or 3-run wins. The 3-run wins are low leverage situations. A 3-run lead is not hard for a decent bullpen to hold. You don’t need a lockdown closer for 3-run lead. So now we’re down to maybe 20 1 or 2-run leads. Are those more important than the 32+ starts a SP would have? I don’t think so. If the Royals had no decent closer replacement candidates, then I’d be a little concerned. But I wouldn’t be concerned about Nunez, Ramirez or Mahay taking over for Soria. Would they be as good as him? Probably not. Much worse? Probably not.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 21, 2008 4:45 PM EDT
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Wouldn't you rather
just avoid as many of these “30 games” as possible, then, by havign a bigger lead coming into some of them?
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on
May 21, 2008 4:45 PM EDT
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There is, as far as I can tell,
no significant evidence that indicates you need some kind of special mindset to get the last three outs of a baseball game. Most of the time, any decent reliever can close. It’s much harder to find a good starter than a good reliever, and starters are much more valuable in general.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on
May 21, 2008 4:14 PM EDT
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Joe Borrowski...
led the league in saves last year (with an era in the 5’s!!). He had the moxy necessary. They should make Carmona and Sabaitha his setup men to make every game a six inning game.
by djk royal on
May 21, 2008 4:15 PM EDT
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Joe Borowski is..
...a statistical anomaly among closers. – TL
by timlacy on
May 21, 2008 4:16 PM EDT
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What he is
is a below average relief pitcher who successfully closed the majority of games because anyone who can sometimes get three outs can rack up saves. Saves are a thoroughly overrated statistic.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on
May 21, 2008 4:29 PM EDT
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I agree that the...
...official save is sometimes an overrated statistic. A lot of current MLB pitching monkeys can achieve the save criteria. But that’s not what we’re talking about here. – TL
by timlacy on
May 21, 2008 4:35 PM EDT
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I am bringing up saves
being overrated because I think it has bearing on the overall discussion.
I mean, do you remember when Joe Nelson closed for the Royals for a month and a half. JOE NELSON. Lock down pitcher? Not even close. 90% save conversion rate? Yep.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on
May 21, 2008 4:47 PM EDT
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One thing that is being overrated in this discussion is 2-run and 3-run saves
2 or 3-run leads to start the 9th inning aren’t particularly high leverage situations. And that accounts for a very large percentage of all saves.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 21, 2008 4:53 PM EDT
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I was about to right a
fiery counterargument. Dang it, djk royal, way to be humorous.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on
May 21, 2008 4:28 PM EDT
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Dang it!
That was MY argument way above about having Greinke setting up being the next logical step. As well as the “moral” of my stupid little story.
Note: this is supposed to be stupidly melodramatic and territorial.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
May 21, 2008 5:23 PM EDT
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How about I just say
“Dang it, devil fingers!” and everyone’s happy?
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on
May 21, 2008 5:27 PM EDT
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Too late
you can never go back
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
May 21, 2008 5:38 PM EDT
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Tell that to most...
...major leaguers. – TL
by timlacy on
May 21, 2008 4:17 PM EDT
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Ok, I'd be happy to
What “most major leaguers” believe with regard to the importance of a closer vs. a SP isn’t particularly relevant to me. Most major leaguers believe the standard, traditional baseball orthodoxy because that is what they have been taught. That doesn’t make it right. In fact, much of it is very much wrong.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 21, 2008 4:24 PM EDT
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+1
I hate to be a parrot, but NYRoyal just said what I was about to say and probably said it better.
The fact is, Closers are overrated as a group, and most managers still stick to antiquated methods when it comes to bullpen use.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on
May 21, 2008 4:26 PM EDT
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But, David, we're...
...losing a lot of low scoring games, and having someone dominant in the bullpen at least helps close out the games of our excellent pitchers who can’t throw more than 100-110 pitches. – TL
by timlacy on
May 21, 2008 4:01 PM EDT
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This is...
...supposed to be attached to djk’s 2:56 comment above. – TL
by timlacy on
May 21, 2008 4:02 PM EDT
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The counterargument,
which I subscribe to, is that we would have a very good bullpen even if Ramirez or Nunez were closing. Soria in the rotation, down the road, can probably contribute on at least an average level. So we’d be gaining value overall.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on
May 21, 2008 4:16 PM EDT
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Thanks And Summary
Thanks to everyone for your comments. I never thought this would achieve 100+ of them (although I’m guessing half are mine). Then again, I didn’t see my post as being a referendum on Soria’s role either. To be honest, I’m happy we have the guy at all. I love him as closer, but wouldn’t necessarily cry if he started either. – TL
by timlacy on
May 21, 2008 4:48 PM EDT
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Final word on Soria
We are playing the defending champs this week, and we have gone 3 days without our best pitcher getting a chance to impact any of the games one iota.
THAT’S why they have to try him in the rotation.
by loyal2sdad on
May 22, 2008 12:03 PM EDT
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You forgot that he pitched the eighth last night when the Royals were down 4!
They could have rallied!
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
May 22, 2008 3:31 PM EDT
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Another high leverage situation
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 22, 2008 3:35 PM EDT
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Even a 4-game
...series sweep makes this argument irrelevant. Any team--including the BoSox—can be swept in four games. Is that an argument for moving Papelbon back to their rotation? The Yankees are losing this year. I think their record is worse than ours. Does that mean they’re foolish for leaving Rivera in the bullpen? His ERA is 0.47.
Give it up, Folks! – TL
by timlacy on
May 23, 2008 9:08 PM EDT
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