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Still Confident? I Am, And Here's Why

From today's Kansas City Star :

Dayton Moore has done a great job of building [the team] and designing it,” [George] Brett said. “You’ve got a good rotation with young guys who can come out and beat you any given night.

“And I really think another major piece has been Joakim Soria. He may have some off nights every now and then, but he gives the team a sense of confidence it hasn’t had for a long time.”

Shoring up the closer’s role and signing Soria to a long-term deal was key, Brett said.

“There is nothing more devastating to a baseball team than a blown save,” Brett said. “You’re bound to get some. When you have a 3-2 lead and you think you have it wrapped up and the next thing you know, you lose 4-3, it’s devastating.

“With Soria, we haven’t had that hardly at all. I remember talking to (manager) Mike Scioscia of the Angels last year, and he was so impressed when we had Zack Greinke and Soria in the back of the bullpen. He’d say, ‘You guys turn games into seven-inning games.’ ”

It was just yesterday (or the day before) that I argued that Soria shouldn't go to the rotation.  I cited the calamity that is a blown save, and the positive results of a shortened sense of opportunity for the opposing team.

 It's nice to see George backing me up. - TL

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I was on the fence...

before but because George said it that makes it irrefutable.

by djk royal on May 20, 2008 11:26 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I dont see how you can deny that being a starting pitcher is more valuable then pitching 1 inning maybe 3 times a week

if it fails then he can go back to the closers role.. i just dont understand how your not willing to try it… we have Ramon Ramirez who is been outstanding too.. the only runs that have scored on him with the exception of maybe 1 were all inherited runs that someone else gave up for him..

Yasuhiko Yabuta is to Major League Baseball as Drew Carey is to The Price is Right

by focs on May 20, 2008 11:45 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We actually have...

...right now, enough starting pitching. When a team gets the performance out of Tomko that this team has, who do we need to replace—-Meche, Greinke, Bannister, Tomko, or Hochevar? I can see Soria being better than Bannister, but why take Bannister out. – TL

by timlacy on May 20, 2008 1:39 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't think anyone is arguing that Soria should be in the rotation for the remainder of the season

I think the smart plan is to slowly work him into the rotaiton and slowly build up his innings. So the issue isn’t who is he better than that is in the rotation right now (and I think he’d be better than Tomko). The issue is who he better than after the 2008 season. I think he’s better and cheaper than the other alternatives for the 5th starter spot for 2009 and beyond. And once his stamina is built up, he can give 180+ genuinely good innings as opposed to some other 5th starter who would likely give 150 not good innings.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 20, 2008 1:42 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Soria's probably...

...two seasons away from being the starter that statisticians would predict. By that time we may need him, and may have developed another lock-down, automatic bullpen guy. So I’m willing to have this conversation in the spring of 2010, perhaps. – TL

by timlacy on May 20, 2008 1:45 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

im hoping for 09..

Greinke, Meche, Bannister, Soria, Hochevar…

Carlos Rosa, Ramon Ramirez, or Leo Nunez the closer

Yasuhiko Yabuta is to Major League Baseball as Drew Carey is to The Price is Right

by focs on May 20, 2008 3:37 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

we have way more than enough pitching...

we need to score…we are 1 bat away…I never thought Teahen/Butler/DDJ could put up such lackluster numbers…we need a bat…Jason Bay/Matt Holiday…if it was me I’d sign Barry Effing Bonds

Don't be lonesome for your heroes. Be your own hero.

by PhattStairs on May 21, 2008 11:19 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Meh

George also thinks we can win the division, so I’m not sure he’s speaking with clarity here. Blown saves suck, but so do terrible outings by your starting pitchers. Gimme Soria in the rotation and Nunez and/or Ramirez closing things out.

BTW, Flanagan is very much advocating for Soria to stay in the pen, so he’s going to cherry-pick quotes that support his argu]ment.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 20, 2008 11:48 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I didn't know that...

...Flanagan was consistently advocating for the same thing.

Still, I would rather hear about the psychology of the game from a guy like Brett than a bunch of anonymous blogosphereians (you not included in this group). – TL

by timlacy on May 20, 2008 1:37 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It would be absolute stupidity not to give Soria a shot

at starting. There’s nobody in the world (sorry George) who is going to convince me that a closer is more important than a dominant starter. That just makes no sense. I love watching Soria come out to pitch, but it kills me that we only get to see him for one inning. We need to start looking at giving Ramirez and Nunez some save ops while letting Soria pitch a few more innings.

by royaldaddy on May 20, 2008 11:59 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Classic...

...overstatement. Ramirez and Nunez are very good, but they’re not lock-down, dominant bullpen guys. – TL

by timlacy on May 20, 2008 1:38 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't think he said they were lock-down, dominant bullpen guys

But they have been damned good, with lots of K’s, few walks and small ERA’s. That isn’t good enough for a closer? I could name a dozen or more closers with worse stats so far.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 20, 2008 1:44 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Check out their splits too

Both are pitching well against left-handed hitters. A high leverage reliever needs to get opposite-handed batters out consistently.

by Gopherballs on May 20, 2008 1:48 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm not opposed...

...to working Nunez and Ramirez into a few save situations, but it’ll take a few seasons before we figure it all out and have the confidence Soria already has. – TL

by timlacy on May 20, 2008 1:49 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

How long did it take to figure out if Soria had the confidence?

Or Joe Nathan? Or any closer?

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 20, 2008 2:02 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Which is fine anyway

Because it will probably take a few seasons for Soria to transition to full-time starter.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 20, 2008 2:04 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Does it necessarily take that long?

I remember when Kelvim Escobar was Toronto’s closer. He wasn’t so hot at it, so they moved him into the rotation. They didn’t send him down. He just started starting. The first few starts were shorter (5 innings) and stuff, but it didn’t take that long. And he turned out to be a very good (albeit oft-injured, although that was always true of him) starter.

I’m not saying Soria would follow the same timetable, I’m just wondering if it would really take a few seasons, or just a portion of one. I can’t imagine that it would take more than one season.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on May 20, 2008 2:35 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He could make the switch right now...but it wouldn't be the best way to do it

There’s been a lot of research done which shows there is a big injury risk when you greatly increase a pitchers innings pitched from one season to the next. So, in short, we shouldn’t go from Soria being a full-time closer this year to him being a full-time starter next year. If he were to go from 75 ip this year to 180 next year, there would be a significant injury risk, which the Royals should avoid.

The plan I would follow is stretching him out with longer relief outings in the second half of this year, and giving him some spot starts to increase his IP to around 100. Then next year, I’d split him between the bullpen and rotation, getting his IP up around 130. The following year he could go up to around 175 innings.

Unfortunately, I don’t think many (any?) organizations monitor IP that closely, so I don’t think this plan will be followed. The early part of my plan might be what the Royals do. But, if he pitches really well as a starter next year, I could see them just keeping him in that role, regardless of the IP he racks up.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 20, 2008 2:41 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

x 5

3-5 starts this year would do the job

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by marbotty on May 20, 2008 3:39 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Better safe than sorry

I’d like to see him get a few September starts, stretch him out a bit more in 2009, then have him full-time as starter in 2010.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 20, 2008 2:41 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

OK

Thanks, both NYRoyal and RoyalsRetro, for replying. I guess I was (perhaps misreading) taking it that some people thought that it would take several seasons for him to be a starter. well, I guess that it the case if he isn’t up to being full-time until 2010. But on NYRoyals hypothetical scenario, it seems like he could be going pretty much full-time by the second half of next season, which would be nice.

As I’ve said elsewhere, for all the good stuff that’s happened with the Royals’ pitching this year, when I look down the road, the only pitcher out of their current whom I have real confidence in to maintain a high level of performance is Greinke. Again, not that Meche isn’t good, or that Bannister might be for real, or that Hochevar will develop, but it isn’t as if the Royals can really be saying “we’re set for the next two years,” either.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on May 20, 2008 2:48 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

In today's game I would argue that closer is more important...

than at least a number 2 starter…we have the starting pitching…leave the bullpen alone…in today’s game the 8th and 9th innings seem to me what separates most teams…you have a good game and its gonna stay that way…I don’t know what to say that hasn’t been already said…Scioscia was dead on…when we had Greinke and Soria it was lights out…we already got Greinke converted so we saved Soria to be closer…don’t EFF with it…in today’s world its if your good at something ride it out and don’t eff with it…you’ve got one of the top five closers in the game at this moment and you’d want to make him a starter…seriously, I’m no stat whore, but that is the most ludicrous common topic we’ve ever discussed on here…I have full faith that the Royals will be smart and keep him as a closer…he just has the mentality…I understand the just-try-it-and-see-if-it-works-and-if-not-then-back-to-pen routine…but I don’t trust anyone else to CLOSE THE DOOR…and say we did try him as a starter and that messed up his ability to be a closer?...I think we are just caught up in how amazing he is and think that we might as well make him an ace…well I’m here to tell you that he may be an ace, but how many people can go 17 appearances without a run allowed…what a COUPLE?...he might be Johan Santana-esque as a starter, but when your that good, I mean that good, as a closer, I say don’t even fuss with it…it would be like everytime a closer got good, he would be too good and then back to starter…thats not how it works…if he starts blowing a save every other night, then yeah, put his many pitches to work as a starter…until then ride this baby out…I could only see him as a starter if we signed a top 3 veteran closer like Rivera/Wagner/Papelbon

Don't be lonesome for your heroes. Be your own hero.

by PhattStairs on May 21, 2008 11:37 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Heck, let's follow the logic out

Mike Scioscia (who played the game, and isn’t some bean counter sitting in his mom’s basement) is also cited as an authority in that article. Looks like the Royals made a big mistake moving Zack into the rotation. Should have him setting up for Soria still. DMGM is killing this organization by his lack of concern for endgame pitching.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on May 20, 2008 12:08 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Know who else played the game and was a pretty good third baseman?

Buddy Bell. Greinke in the rotation. Bell fired. Hell in a hand basket, I tells ya.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on May 20, 2008 12:09 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wow.

Someone has too much spare time on her/his hands. – TL

by timlacy on May 20, 2008 1:36 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Creative? Yes.

Awesome? No. I thought it was somewhat boring. – TL

by timlacy on May 20, 2008 1:48 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Nice to know...

I still think it was awesome.

by djk royal on May 20, 2008 1:54 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

L Ron Hoover was a visionary

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by marbotty on May 20, 2008 3:42 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Illogic

If you have several dominant guys in the pen, then moving one out is fine. Having one dominant guy with several very good guys--like we have now—isn’t the same situation. – TL

by timlacy on May 20, 2008 1:35 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+100

Sarcasmâ„¢. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on May 20, 2008 1:34 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

this was supposed to be a reply to devil_fingers, not the OP. Sorry, Tim. ;)

Sarcasmâ„¢. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on May 20, 2008 1:35 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No problem...

...because devil fingers seems to have a lot of time to figure things out. – TL

by timlacy on May 20, 2008 1:40 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There's a reason George has never become a manager

Great players do not always know everything about great baseball. (See Joe Morgan).

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 20, 2008 1:43 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well, Morgan seems to know a lot about Gary Sheffield

You can’t say he isn’t consistent!

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on May 20, 2008 1:43 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Conceded

But, you have to believe that Brett would be more fun to listen to than Morgan. Plus, I’m only advocating that we trust Brett with regard to psychological aspects of the game. I have every confidence that he’s winner in that regard, if not Xs and Os. -TL

by timlacy on May 20, 2008 1:46 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

Really hard to see me agreeing with that, wasn’t it? :P

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on May 20, 2008 2:07 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

For me it all comes down to:

If you have to choose for your team one of the two following options, which do you pick?

Choice A

An elite closer and an average back-of-the-rotation SP

or

Choice B

A pretty good closer and a good SP

I’d take Choice B every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 20, 2008 2:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Working twice as hard...

on Sundays would displease Dayton. Don’t you know you’re supposed to honor the sabbath.

by djk royal on May 20, 2008 2:25 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

As a collolary

(and I mean this in agreement) so much of the discussion assumes that Soria would be a no. 5 pitcher, whatever that really means. But isn’t it true that people who see him as a starter see him as potentially much better than that? We aren’t talking about adding a Jesse Litsch here, but potentially an A. J. Burnett.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on May 20, 2008 2:50 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

A.J. Burnett

probably not a bad stat comp, whip of 1.2 with era+ of 115, that number 2 or good number 3.

by ZeppelinDZ on May 20, 2008 3:24 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My point is that he would be effectively replacing the #5 starter

Even if he pitches like an ace, the pitcher he would be knocking out of the rotation would be the #5 SP.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 20, 2008 4:36 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

K

yeah, that makes sense. I was thinking about it the other way round (a nice way of saying “ass-backwards.”) I was charging the windmill of someone thinking “hey, Tomko is an adequate #5 starter, and we’ll have Banny/Hochevar in there soon, so why bump Soria up.”

Wow, as confused as my arguments sometimes are, it seems that I have an even harder time agreeing.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on May 20, 2008 4:40 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It seems like I never agree with anyone

...but really I do sometimes :)

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 20, 2008 4:42 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah, but it gave me such a warm fuzzy down below

Woah! I mean lower on the thread, when you “echoed” me and gopherballs.

Wow. Just got really uncomfortable in here.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on May 20, 2008 4:43 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Blog foul

“warm fuzzy down below”

This is your official warning. You’re on probation.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 20, 2008 4:48 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If I bat boy for S. Florida for the next two seasons

can I get it off my permanent record?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on May 20, 2008 4:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Definitely

...as long as you don’t develop any “warm fuzzy down below” attachments to any of their players. That has proven to create problems on this site.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 20, 2008 5:04 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah, that ruled

I miss those days. What was it, 1 week ago that the last outbreak occurred? Is there some sort of RR Hall of SH/Fame? The nickname was perfect, too.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on May 20, 2008 5:11 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We try not to speak their names too often

It’s like that horror movie (Candyman?), where if you say it’s name three times, it comes to get you.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 20, 2008 5:27 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Karma for "Candyman" ref

Saw that movie a few years back. I’m grown, but it was the middle of the night, I was by myself, and it scared the shit out of me.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on May 20, 2008 5:30 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I try to avoid horror movies

Even the bad ones leave a lingering bad feeling and often give me bad dreams. I actually had a zombie nightmare after seeing “Shaun of the Dead.” True story.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 20, 2008 5:34 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Shaun of the Dead

is really good, though. Most horror movies fall within the parameters of Sturgeon’s Law.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on May 21, 2008 4:07 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Trying to come up with a line

about how we should be saving Sunday evenings for more important games, or activities, or something. Can’t. That’s fine, it’s annoying when people coattail on others’ jokes, anyway.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on May 20, 2008 4:45 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It seems to me that...

...if every team followed this logic, there’d actually be no elite closers. Why? I’ll bet that every single elite closer, if converted to a starter, would probably be at least a #3 starter. If there are no elite closers, then we’re all saying that Brett is full of crap. I won’t risk that. – TL

by timlacy on May 20, 2008 4:14 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Mariano Rivera wouldn't have been

He was already a failed starter. One pitch (two if you count his occasional 4-seamer).

Not Trevor Hoffman, either (another guy with a limited number of pitches: changeup and a crappy fastball).

Bobby Jenks had already flamed out as a starter for the Angels.

The first two are certainly elite, the third is no slouch. I doubt any of them could cut it as a #3 starter (to be fair, i don’t know Hoffman’s early history off-hand, but his limited repertoire makes me think it wouldn’t work. I’m open to correction here.)

These are just three off the top of my head. I imagine there are numerous other examples.

Oh, yeah, Goose Gossage was a guy who failed when tried as a starter. I think he turned out to be an OK reliever.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on May 20, 2008 4:35 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Dan Quisenberry

could not have been a starter either.

And since Dan Quisenberry informs every word George Brett speaks on the topic of great closers, that sort of closes the book on it.

Sarcasmâ„¢. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on May 20, 2008 7:51 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Soria's three-pitch repertoire makes him the exception to most closers

Most closers became relievers because they lacked the secondary pitches necessary to succeed as a starter, including an adequate change up or curve to keep opposite handed batters off balance. Soria is the exception in that he throws three quality pitches, including a curve and a change, and does not rely on mere velocity to succeed (as relievers almost always lose some velocity when pitching longer outings as a starter).

by Gopherballs on May 20, 2008 4:37 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm going to echo what devil_fingers and gopherballs said

Many great relievers (closers or not) don’t have what it takes to be a successful starter. To be a successful SP, you have to have the strength and stamina to throw 100+ pitches. And, more importantly, you have to have good secondary pitches. The first time through a lineup, one great pitch (which is what most elite closers have) is enough to get everyone out. But the second, third and fourth times through the lineup, you’ve got to have more. Major league hitters will get the timing down on your fastball. They’ll get used to when and how your breaking ball breaks. They’ll get used to the look and timing of your changeup. If you’re relying on just that one (or two) great pitch(es), you’re going to get hammered the second or third time through the lineup. Good SP’s have more than one good pitch. They’ve got breaking balls and offspeed pitches to compliment their fastballs. They’ve also got good control which is at more of a premium for starting pitchers. Soria has all of these things. I wouldn’t say that most closers have what it takes to be a good SP. I think Soria does.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 20, 2008 4:41 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Huh? Won't risk what?...

are you afraid George will get mad at you? Pretty sure George doesn’t read Royals Review. It’s okay to say you don’t agree with great baseball players.

by djk royal on May 20, 2008 4:23 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

you're going to hell

don’t blame anybody but yourself :P

but seriously, for as good of player that brett was, there isn’t any reason to think he knows how to build a successful baseball team more than the 1000s of other pro baseball players.

by ZeppelinDZ on May 20, 2008 4:47 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think Brett is repeating the current baseball orthodoxy

...about how crucial it is have as good of a closer as possible. For the past 15 years or so, closers have been wildly overvalued in MLB. Traditional baseball orthodoxy has been shown to be wrong many times. This is one of many such occurrences.

Also, I think Brett was mostly just saying something really positive about a Royal who just signed a long-term contract. Soria’s a good pitcher, the Royals just locked him down long-term, so Brett says how great he is and how important he is to the team. In Brett’s defense, he wasn’t speaking directly to the issue of how important a closer is vs. a SP.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 20, 2008 4:52 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

George is my...

favorite player ever. I’m just not sure its logical that if you ever disagree with any of his quotes that means you think he is full of crap. It’s okay to disagree. I know you personally never disagree with others but you can probably see what I’m saying.

by djk royal on May 20, 2008 4:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree

Even if George were a great baseball mind who was well versed in the ways of building a winning team and handling a pitching staff, we could still disagree with him, and he could still be wrong. Intelligent baseball minds often disagree. There are no trump cards. There are no final words. If Bill James came out tomorrow and said, “I’ve crunched the numbers and I’m confident that Soria would be much more valuable to the Royals as a closer than as a SP,” I would disagree with him. Now, I’d read what he had to say, analyze it and include his opinions, along with the opinions I’ve read elsewhere into my own analysis. But his opinion, just as with the opinion of a HOFer and hero, wouldn’t be dispositive of the issue in and of itself.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 20, 2008 5:08 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

In my defense, I was...

...only citing Brett as an authority on the psychology of the game. On that matter I have a great deal of confidence in his opinions. If he says that having a crappy closer is incredibly damaging, I’m inclined to agree. If he says having an average closer is okay, I’d buy it. It seemed to me, however, that he was specifically addressing the need for an above average to elite closer (i.e. Soria), so I’ve structured my comments (and praise in the original post) accordingly.

George Brett is absolutely my favorite all-time player, but I’ve been careful not to use terms like “always,” “ever,” “absolutely,” etc. I simply wouldn’t risk a big disagreement on an issue that deals with individual or team psychology. If Soria keeps us winning, then by all means keep the guy in the closers role. We’re nearly a .500 team, and could get better if our offense started clicking. The White Sox are not world beaters, which means we really could be in the thick of things until September. – TL

by timlacy on May 20, 2008 6:10 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

With regard to the psychological effects of closers

Don’t you think that it affects different players in different ways to different degrees. Apparently it was a big deal to Brett. Does that mean it’s a big deal to all or most players?

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 20, 2008 7:05 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This is a clearly...

...valid point. Please allow me to use the Cubs as an exemplary cautionary tale.

Before installing Dempster as closer in 2005, the Cubs tried a kind of by-committee scenario in 2004 using several above average relievers (Hawkins, Borowski (injured), Farnsworth, Dempster, Leicester, Rusch, Remlinger, Mercker). Yes, Hawkins got the most save opportunities, but he was (and is still is not, I believe), cut out to be a closer. Dusty kept experimenting during the season, and many of those pitchers were above average (Hawkins, Farnsworth), but the unsettled role contributed to a mediocre season and, I think, to a lack of confidence down the stretch (during a disastrous Sept. collapse).

Now I realize this isn’t a perfect analogy. But that team lacked a lockdown closer, even though it had several above average bullpen guys. The whole team, as a consequence, toiled through a long year and mentally, I think, collapsed down the stretch. There were other contributing factors (i.e. Wood and Priory in-and-out of the disabled list), but the glaring weakness in the closer position clearly hurt that team. That’s why the team rejoiced so much in 2005 when Dempster flourished a closer.

In sum, based on Brett’s observation and my personal history of observing the Royals and Cubs (dating from 1977 and 1982, respectively), having a lockdown closer matters a great deal—-when other factors are solid as well. It’s a crucial position on the team, even if we both know that “team,” by definition, includes a number of crucial roles (including having above average starting pitching). – TL

by timlacy on May 21, 2008 12:36 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And now

Dempster is 5-2 with a 2.70 in ten starts as a starter again. I think he’s far more valuable in this role.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 21, 2008 12:45 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

But Dempster...

...was not the lockdown closer that Soria is. Dempster walked too many batters, and is pitching better this year than he ever has. I don’t think it’s fair to compare the Soria situation to Dempster’s (starter, elbow blow out, reliever for one really good year, average the next, then okay, and now starter). – TL

by timlacy on May 21, 2008 1:00 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wait a minute

In all sincerity, aren’t you the one who brought up the Dempster/Cubs comparison in the first place? I’m confused as to what point you’re trying to make with that, if not this.

Probably should try reading this when I’m not editing/listening to music/hungry all at the same time, but there’s a bit of cognitive dissonance for me.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on May 21, 2008 1:19 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If you read the..

...11:36 am comment above carefully, I was comparing the overall Soria situation, based on the psychology of a team in relation to a strong closer, to the Cubs situation in 2005. Dempster was only an accessory to that story, not the focus. -TL

by timlacy on May 21, 2008 3:30 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Plus, Dempster...

...wouldn’t be as valuable if the Cubs hadn’t developed Marmol (who has Soria-type ability) and had Wood coming back. Neither Marmol nor Wood walk many batters. In sum, I believe we’re comparing apples and oranges with Soria and Dempster. – TL

by timlacy on May 21, 2008 1:01 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

whether or not you move soria to the rotation,

i think the letdown of repeatedly losing games late is pretty clear, albeit not sabertastically evident. you can say ramirez or nunez can close, but for a team on the cusp as the royals are, they better be lights out or the move is not worth it, imo.

by 390 on May 21, 2008 1:18 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I definitely...

...agree with you. If you read all my posts above, I’m arguing for keeping Soria in the role as long as needed. There should be no automatic, pre-formulated chronology for getting him into the rotation. Let our bullpen guys develop, as well as the 5 promising guys currently rotating, before even considering the change. – TL

by timlacy on May 21, 2008 3:32 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Is Tomko...

promising? If you don’t consider the change now it will probably never happen. It takes too long to stretch a young reliever out to wait a few years and then do it. More innings are pitched as a starter than a reliever. Even factoring in the leverage of important innings a club is better served having a good starter than a dominant reliever.

If you want to start factoring in “psychology” and all that I’m pretty sure it’s not good for the psyche to be behind early all the time while your best pitchers are sitting in the bullpen.

by djk royal on May 21, 2008 3:54 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We are "behind early all the time"...

...because our offense stinks, not because our best pitchers are all in the bullpen. Period. – TL

by timlacy on May 21, 2008 3:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well then...

if we’re behing all the time a dominant closer being greater than a starter is even more absurd.

by djk royal on May 21, 2008 3:57 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

As long as needed?

How do we know how long that is? Until we think someone else is ready to be a good closer? How in the world will we know that? Nunez and Ramirez are dominating right now. How long do they have to pitch like that before we think they have enough heart, grit, moxy and chutzpah to be closer?

But I think this is thinking about it completely backwards. A starting pitching role is more important to the team than the closer role. So, waiting until we have just the perfect person to take over the closer role before moving Soria is the tale wagging the dog.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 21, 2008 3:59 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Only if you...

...throw out pitch-count limitations on starters. – TL

by timlacy on May 21, 2008 4:01 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No, not at all

That really doesn’t make any sense.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 21, 2008 4:07 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Please explain.

From my angle, you could have 5 excellent starters, but probably none of them--based on current pitching trends—can throw a complete game. In fact, most can only finish about 7 innings. This means you’re giving the opposing teams 2 innings worth of chances off your bullpen.

Let’s say you finish the 7th inning with a 3-2, 3-1, or 3-0 lead. Since most average, or even above average closers, have about a 3.5 era, then you’re surely taking your chances in your last two innings. This means you have to have at least one lockdown, dominant closer to get the save or the hold. One of the two must be exceptional. – TL

by timlacy on May 21, 2008 4:15 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ok
Let’s say you finish the 7th inning with a 3-2, 3-1, or 3-0 lead. Since most average, or even above average closers, have about a 3.5 era, then you’re surely taking your chances in your last two innings. This means you have to have at least one lockdown, dominant closer to get the save or the hold. One of the two must be exceptional.

If the Royals were guaranteed to have many, many tied or 1-run games in the last couple of innings, then I would agree that a dominant closer (as well as some good set up men) would be critical. But that just isn’t the case for the Royals or for any team. The reality is that those high leverage situations just aren’t common enough for them to be more important than having more good SP innings.

The Royals situation with having SP’s usually go 6-7 innings isn’t rare. That is true for every team. The Royals situation doesn’t make having a good closer more important. Like every team, the Royals would benefit from allowing fewer runs. Moving Soria to the rotation (the right way) would help the Royals win more games.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 21, 2008 4:23 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Just to clarify:

...I’m not talking about “many, many tied or 1-run games” in a major league season. As we all know, a little less than 60 games separate the best from the worst teams each season.

In those 60, probably 30 or less involve 1, 2, or 3-run wins. It’s for those 30 games that guys like Soria, Wood, Nathan, Rivera, etc. earn the big bucks. It’s for those 30 games that you want a lockdown closer. – TL

by timlacy on May 21, 2008 4:40 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ok

Let’s say 30 or fewer involve 1, 2, or 3-run wins. The 3-run wins are low leverage situations. A 3-run lead is not hard for a decent bullpen to hold. You don’t need a lockdown closer for 3-run lead. So now we’re down to maybe 20 1 or 2-run leads. Are those more important than the 32+ starts a SP would have? I don’t think so. If the Royals had no decent closer replacement candidates, then I’d be a little concerned. But I wouldn’t be concerned about Nunez, Ramirez or Mahay taking over for Soria. Would they be as good as him? Probably not. Much worse? Probably not.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 21, 2008 4:45 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wouldn't you rather

just avoid as many of these “30 games” as possible, then, by havign a bigger lead coming into some of them?

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on May 21, 2008 4:45 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There is, as far as I can tell,

no significant evidence that indicates you need some kind of special mindset to get the last three outs of a baseball game. Most of the time, any decent reliever can close. It’s much harder to find a good starter than a good reliever, and starters are much more valuable in general.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on May 21, 2008 4:14 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Joe Borrowski...

led the league in saves last year (with an era in the 5’s!!). He had the moxy necessary. They should make Carmona and Sabaitha his setup men to make every game a six inning game.

by djk royal on May 21, 2008 4:15 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Joe Borowski is..

...a statistical anomaly among closers. – TL

by timlacy on May 21, 2008 4:16 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What he is

is a below average relief pitcher who successfully closed the majority of games because anyone who can sometimes get three outs can rack up saves. Saves are a thoroughly overrated statistic.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on May 21, 2008 4:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree that the...

...official save is sometimes an overrated statistic. A lot of current MLB pitching monkeys can achieve the save criteria. But that’s not what we’re talking about here. – TL

by timlacy on May 21, 2008 4:35 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I am bringing up saves

being overrated because I think it has bearing on the overall discussion.

I mean, do you remember when Joe Nelson closed for the Royals for a month and a half. JOE NELSON. Lock down pitcher? Not even close. 90% save conversion rate? Yep.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on May 21, 2008 4:47 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

One thing that is being overrated in this discussion is 2-run and 3-run saves

2 or 3-run leads to start the 9th inning aren’t particularly high leverage situations. And that accounts for a very large percentage of all saves.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 21, 2008 4:53 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I was about to right a

fiery counterargument. Dang it, djk royal, way to be humorous.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on May 21, 2008 4:28 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Dang it!

That was MY argument way above about having Greinke setting up being the next logical step. As well as the “moral” of my stupid little story.

Note: this is supposed to be stupidly melodramatic and territorial.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on May 21, 2008 5:23 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

How about I just say

“Dang it, devil fingers!” and everyone’s happy?

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on May 21, 2008 5:27 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Too late

you can never go back

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on May 21, 2008 5:38 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Dang it!

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on May 21, 2008 5:41 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ok, I'd be happy to

What “most major leaguers” believe with regard to the importance of a closer vs. a SP isn’t particularly relevant to me. Most major leaguers believe the standard, traditional baseball orthodoxy because that is what they have been taught. That doesn’t make it right. In fact, much of it is very much wrong.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 21, 2008 4:24 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

I hate to be a parrot, but NYRoyal just said what I was about to say and probably said it better.

The fact is, Closers are overrated as a group, and most managers still stick to antiquated methods when it comes to bullpen use.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on May 21, 2008 4:26 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

But, David, we're...

...losing a lot of low scoring games, and having someone dominant in the bullpen at least helps close out the games of our excellent pitchers who can’t throw more than 100-110 pitches. – TL

by timlacy on May 21, 2008 4:01 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This is...

...supposed to be attached to djk’s 2:56 comment above. – TL

by timlacy on May 21, 2008 4:02 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well...

I don’t agree at all so we’re going to have to agree to disagree on this one.

by djk royal on May 21, 2008 4:03 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The counterargument,

which I subscribe to, is that we would have a very good bullpen even if Ramirez or Nunez were closing. Soria in the rotation, down the road, can probably contribute on at least an average level. So we’d be gaining value overall.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on May 21, 2008 4:16 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thanks And Summary

Thanks to everyone for your comments. I never thought this would achieve 100+ of them (although I’m guessing half are mine). Then again, I didn’t see my post as being a referendum on Soria’s role either. To be honest, I’m happy we have the guy at all. I love him as closer, but wouldn’t necessarily cry if he started either. – TL

by timlacy on May 21, 2008 4:48 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Final word on Soria

We are playing the defending champs this week, and we have gone 3 days without our best pitcher getting a chance to impact any of the games one iota.

THAT’S why they have to try him in the rotation.

by loyal2sdad on May 22, 2008 12:03 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+10

Sarcasmâ„¢. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on May 22, 2008 1:03 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+11

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 22, 2008 1:11 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You forgot that he pitched the eighth last night when the Royals were down 4!

They could have rallied!

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on May 22, 2008 3:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Even a 4-game

...series sweep makes this argument irrelevant. Any team--including the BoSox—can be swept in four games. Is that an argument for moving Papelbon back to their rotation? The Yankees are losing this year. I think their record is worse than ours. Does that mean they’re foolish for leaving Rivera in the bullpen? His ERA is 0.47.

Give it up, Folks! – TL

by timlacy on May 23, 2008 9:08 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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