The Joba Transition

From yesnetwork.com, if you can stand it. For those of you who don't know, Steve Goldman is also a writer for Baseball Prospectus. Readers can draw their own conclusions about how Goldman's arguments about Chamberlain might apply to the Royals...

3 months ago devil_fingers Comment 17 comments 0 recs |

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Thanks for the find

This quote says it very well:

“the decision to make Joba Chamberlain a starter is a simple one, for all the hand-wringing about the eighth inning. For the logic behind the thinking, all you have to do is look at Tuesday’s game. The eighth inning doesn’t matter one little bit if you’re down by seven runs before you come to bat. There is so much fretting in baseball about blowing leads. “What happens if we get a lead and we lose it? Horrors!” There is a conditional in that statement: IF we get a lead. Well, if you have weak starting pitching (and an indifferent hitting attack) you’re not going to have a lead, and your big eighth inning weapon’s value is reduced to zero, zip, nada, nothing, because you rarely have a reason to deploy him.”

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 22, 2008 9:07 PM EDT 0 recs

That was the section I latched onto, as well

although I doubt it will persuade some people any more than many other arguments on this board. Or even my “awesome” story.

(sigh) apparent non sequiter: “A robot’d have to be crazy to want to be a folk singer.”

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on May 22, 2008 9:44 PM EDT up 0 recs

Sorry, to double comment on a commment on my shot

but this:

“if you have weak starting pitching (and an indifferent hitting attack)”

Despite the improvements, what team other than the Yankees does that sound like, at least 3 out of every 5 games?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on May 22, 2008 9:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

Well, I don't think the "weak starting pitching" exactly applies to the Royals

...but it could stand an upgrade, of course. It’s not like we’ve got 5 aces. And, of course, moving Soria to the rotation has nothing to do with this season. It has to do with the Royals near future. And having Soria replace some 5th starter would be a big help to this team, particularly if we have a weakish lineup.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 22, 2008 9:51 PM EDT up 0 recs

Agreed

I thought about that when I posted it. The pitching has overall been good, but I must admit that (it’s only subjective) I only “feel” confident with Greinke starting. Meche has been better, lately, than the first of the year. Bannister is Bannister, and Tomko and Hochevar have nicely surprised me (in different ways). Still, although the prospects in the minors look good, I’m a bit wary of the Royals pitching in the immediate future (immediate as in 2009), hence the interest in Soria. Or something. I’m sure there’s a coherent point to be made from this mess.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on May 22, 2008 10:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

Every rotation could use a an additional SP who is pitching at about the #2 SP level

...and I think Soria could do that. One thing that I don’t think many people are thinking about is that every team who wants to compete is going to have to have at least 6 decent SP’s. SP depth is very important because injuries and unexpected underperformances happen. It is likely that some SP is going to go on the DL this year and every year. Adding another genuinely good SP lessens the pain when one of the SP’s goes down or has a bad season.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 22, 2008 10:50 PM EDT up 0 recs

Royals in 2008

4.68 ERA for starters
3.93 for relievers

Pretty similar to 2007:
4.88 for starters
3.89 for relievers

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 23, 2008 9:49 AM EDT up 0 recs

True, but...

Joba is the setup man, not the closer. In addition, the yankees starting pitching is not as relatively good as ours is, and they have bona fide candidates to replace him. Honestly, Ramirez has

We don’t need Soria to start, and I’d rather have a kickass closer.

Pecota, watch over us.

by castille on May 22, 2008 9:49 PM EDT 0 recs

Ramirez has less than 110 career IP and wouldn’t jump into the role like Soria. We also have a dozen MLB caliber Starting pitching prospects and a GM who is focused on acquiring copious amounts of them.

Pecota, watch over us.

by castille on May 22, 2008 9:51 PM EDT up 0 recs

Soria and Joba

Setup men often pitch as high or higher leverage innings than the closer. If a closer is used in the usual traditional manner, they pitch in lots of 2-4 run leads which are low leverage situations. Setup men often get those high leverage, runners on base, have-to-put-out-the-fire situations.

And the Royals have better options to replace Soria than the Yankees do to replace Chamberlain.

Ramirez has less than 110 career IP and wouldn’t jump into the role like Soria.

Why wouldn’t he “jump into the role like Soria”? I’m not saying he would be as good as Soria, but what makes you think he wouldn’t succeed. How many career IP did Soria have before he stepped into the closer role?

We do have a bunch of pitching prospects. I don’t know what “MLB caliber Starting pitching prospect” is, but we certainly don’t have any that are major league ready (at least none that are particularly good) and we can’t count on ANY of them succeeding. The failure rate for pitching prospects is very, very high. And Soria definitely has the potential to be a #1 or #2 SP, and he’s much closer to that than Rosa, Cortes, Wood, Pimentel or any Royals prospect.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 22, 2008 9:58 PM EDT up 0 recs

Moving Soria NOW...

in the middle of the season would not only take a significant amount of time (most likely optioning him to omaha for a while) but how good could he be in his first year? Its been a while since he started and he doesn’t have major league experience there. Tomko is an above average AL #5 guy according to some post a week or two ago. If one of them goes down, we have Bale and Davies who both do have major league experience. If we’re talking about a stopgap before Cortes/Pimental/Johnson/Wood/Rosa makes it to the Majors giving up our closer for the year is not worth it.

Pecota, watch over us.

by castille on May 22, 2008 11:12 PM EDT up 0 recs

I'm not calling for moving Soria to the rotation right now

...nor do I think that is what most people want. What you do is stretch out his relief appearances in the second half to the point where he can make some starts and then give him a few starts late in the season to get him up to about 100 ip. Then next year, you split his time between relieving and starting, getting his IP up to about 130. In the next season, he could be essentially a full-time starter.

how good could he be in his first year?

Good question. But it’s not like it would be his first taste of major league pitching. He’d just be changing roles. There’s little doubt in my mind that he’d be better than most #4 and #5 SP.

Tomko is an above average AL #5 guy according to some post a week or two ago

As I’ve said many times, moving Soria to the rotation isn’t about improving the team this year. It is about improving the team for the next several years.

If one of them goes down, we have Bale and Davies who both do have major league experience

These are exactly the kinds of guys that Soria should be replacing in the rotation in the coming years. While those guys “have major league experience,” there is little reason to believe they’ll be good starting pitchers. Experience does not necessarily equal competence.

If we’re talking about a stopgap before Cortes/Pimental/Johnson/Wood/Rosa makes it to the Majors giving up our closer for the year is not worth it.

No, we’re not talking about any kind of stopgap. We don’t know if any of those guys will pan out as major league starters. The vast majority of pitching prospects fail. We can’t count on any of those guys.

Every major league rotation goes more than 5 deep over the course of a season. Last year, the average of all MLB teams was giving pitchers other than the top 5 starters 31.6 starts. That’s basically a full season of starts. So which rotation would you rather see next year?

Rotation A
Greinke
Bannister
Meche
Hochevar
Bale/Davies/FA scrap heap
Rosa/Duckworth/Wright

Rotation B
Greinke
Bannister
Meche
Soria
Hochevar
Bale/Davies/Rosa/Duckworth/Wright/FA scrap heap

Put Nunez, Ramirez or Mahay at closer and I’ll jump at taking Rotation B.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 22, 2008 11:28 PM EDT up 0 recs

Mahay

Would be an interesting choice for closer. I can see him doing adequate. Plus it would boost his trade value and we could flip him when he approaches free agency because he’ll have that “PROVEN CLOSER” tag.

Still, I think Nunez has the most electric stuff. Long-term, I think he’s the guy.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 23, 2008 9:52 AM EDT up 0 recs

I agree

that Davies and Bale aren’t long term solutions, but putting one in Long relief with spot starts is not the end of the world. Combine that with a Tomko-like signing next year for the 5 spot, something I’m getting confident Moore can do, and we have a rotation that will be better in 2009 than in 2008 because these pitchers are young. While we can’t bank on any single prospect making it to the show, we can safely assume that periodically some will make it up. We are not having the problem the yankees are, that is, our rotation giving up run after run, our biggest problem is our anemic offense. Soria does the most overall help to the team’s win column as the closer in the near future. The only way I’m at peace with soria taking a shot at the rotation is if we have another lights out reliever who doesn’t have the endurance to in the rotation, and I don’t think Nunez or Ramirez fits that bill within one calender year.

Pecota, watch over us.

by castille on May 23, 2008 12:52 AM EDT 0 recs

How do you know unless you try?

We didn’t think Soria could close until we gave it a shot. I think Nunez or Ramirez both have closer material, Nunez in particular.

Our starting rotation could surely use the help. I don’t know why people think the rotation is so great – they have a 4.68 ERA this year, 4.88 last year. That needs to be improved. Assuming Soria could post an ERA around 4.00, he would be a huge improvement over Brett Tomko.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 23, 2008 9:51 AM EDT up 0 recs