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Solution to TPJ problem--Brandon Wood

Tiny by billybeingbilly on

The Royals NEED to trade for Brandon Wood.  He's young, blocked in Anaheim.  He'd immediately help to solve the Royals' power/TPJ issues.  Here are his numbers

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/W/Brandon-Wood-1.shtml

 

He was considered a top 5 prospect after his outstanding 2005 season.  While his stock and numbers have fallen since then, he still profiles out to be a good major league shortstop.  What would it take to acquire him?  Would Rosa or Cortes do it?  Would we have to send them multiple players?  I dont think they have any need for any of our position players.  I wouldnt mind sending them a Mahay or Gobble + Pitching prospect....am i way off base here?   Would Wood be a good idea?

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I'm sure there would be much anticipation

To see a guy who hasn’t hit in the times he’s been in the majors and who strikes out waaay too much. How much were you planning to give up for him?

by Hearditbefore on May 26, 2008 10:23 PM EDT   0 recs

he has had 59 total at bats...

and strikeouts are really unimportant in the grand scheme of things. the dude will mash as he’s done consistently in the minors. id be willing to give up cortes or rosa

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on May 26, 2008 10:27 PM EDT   0 recs

well....

Ks aren’t horrible strategically speaking, but in terms of hitter an excess number of them often indicates the the average is higher than it should be. Wood is still thought to be potentially very good, but after the amazing 2005, he’s cooled down quite a bit, while the contact problems remain.

Also, he isn’t really blocked. I mean, to Royals fans it might be hard to believe someone like Aybar or Shean would be a placeholder, since TPJ is holding down that spot in KC, but Wood is seen as the future as SS.

Hey, don’t get me wrong, it would be great if the Royals could get Wood without giving up too much. But at this point, we might as well write “Solution to John Buck Problem = Matt Weiters”

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on May 26, 2008 10:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

if that's all it takes, we should do it

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by marbotty on May 28, 2008 9:56 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Brandon Wood

Really hasn’t shown he can hit for average or good OBP in the high minors, sure he has huge power potential. But we are talking about a .250 hitter with power at best, and it might take a few year of pain to get there, and that’s if he ever reaches his peak. His defense is also not that great at SS, probably on par with Callaspo.

personally, I think if Wood works out he can be Dan Uggla, if he doesn’t, Wilson Betemit.

by playingwithfire on May 26, 2008 10:46 PM EDT   0 recs

is a .341 OBP that bad?

thats his career obp in the minors…id definitely take that along with 20-25 homers

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on May 27, 2008 1:31 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes, it is bad, especially for someone who has played in mostly hitter's parks and leagues

Wood neither makes contact nor walks much, and major league pitchers will take advantage of it, rendering his power useless. He has more in common with Dallas McPherson and Joe Borchard than a major league SS. He is not going to stick at SS either.

by Gopherballs on May 27, 2008 2:27 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

His minor league stats

are grossly inflated by one killer season in… Rancho Cucamonga. Big offensive numbers in the Cal league are even more silly than they are in Omaha.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on May 27, 2008 2:30 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

So what you're saying

Is that Brandon Wood is no Shane Costa

(winky face)

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on May 27, 2008 2:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

at some point we have to hope that Dayton's plan of stockpiling pitchers...

as a way to build the offense pans out

frankly, i’m afraid of the guys he might want via trade

by royalsreview on May 27, 2008 1:52 AM EDT   0 recs

Fred McGriff NOW!

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on May 27, 2008 12:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I endorse this comment

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 27, 2008 12:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

(thanks, but he needs his Braves uniform)

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on May 27, 2008 12:53 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

+1

sign Greinke a Evan Longoria type deal now.

by kcscoliny on May 27, 2008 11:02 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

but traded for de la rosa

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by marbotty on May 28, 2008 9:57 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Good lord

He traded a two-month rental of an aging utility IFer for DLR, who he later flipped for a very good young reliever. So what exactly is your criticism of Moore here?

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 28, 2008 11:36 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

And one should give proper credit for him flipping such a player for an improvement

If one wants to fairly evaluate Moore’s trades.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 28, 2008 11:53 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

true

i left off ramirez and salmon. but i think you are undervaluing both Howell and Affeldt. Dismissing them as LOOGY’s is a mistake.

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by marbotty on May 28, 2008 12:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm looking at what they've done

When was the last time Affeldt was successful in a role other than LOOGY? 2003. Howell has never had any kind of major league success until this year when he’s pitched solely as a reliever. While he’s not pitching strictly as a LOOGY, he’s certainly facing more lefties than the average reliever. So far all I’ve seen from him is an ability to be a decent lefty reliever. Anything else is strictly potential that he hasn’t realized in 200 career IP. He looks a lot like DLR to me.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 28, 2008 12:12 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Howell pitched like a typical AL 4th starter last year

Thanks to the horrible Devil Ray defense, his BABIP was 391. His FIP was 4.77 with 8.65 K/9 and 3.71 BB/9. His FIP in 2006 was 4.03.

Howell is no prize, but he is a decent back of the rotation starter, and has been for awhile.

by Gopherballs on May 28, 2008 12:42 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

That is if one doesn't care at all about runs allowed

While I think peripherals are important to the evaluation of any pitcher, I don’t think runs allowed should be ignored and Howell has shown a persistent ability to allow many runs as a SP, despite his peripherals.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 28, 2008 12:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You're battling a strawman

He is accounting for runs allowed, and showing them in context of a bad defense. You’re completely ignoring his peripherals, which is curious since you often use peripherals to bolster your argument for players you like, which obviously means you consider them somewhat important.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 28, 2008 1:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I take both ERA, RA and peripherals into account for every pitcher

I don’t like Howell’s ERA, RA, H/9 or BB/9. On the other side of the ledger is his K’s. The K’s aren’t enough.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 28, 2008 1:25 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

not all that impressive

If you condense the list to guys with value, it looks more like this:

Gave up
Howell
Buckner
Affeldt
Dotel

Received
Bannister
Callaspo
Cortes

Looks about even, depending on whether Buckner or Cortes pan out.

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by marbotty on May 28, 2008 10:13 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Dotel has value?

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on May 28, 2008 10:21 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Enough to land us Davies.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 28, 2008 11:05 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hooray!

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on May 28, 2008 1:24 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Value

How do you determine who has “value” and who does not? How much “value” did a 2-month rental of a pretty good and usually injured Dotel have? Some, but not a hell of a lot. How much value to Gathright and Gload have? Some but not a hell of a lot. Gathright and Gload both have some value on either the FA or trade markets. Neither of them has everyday starter value, but they certainly have “value.” Valuable bench players count too and their “value” should be counted as long as we’re counting the “value” of LOOGY’s like Affeldt and Howell and a two-month rental like Dotel.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 28, 2008 11:42 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

look at who else was being traded at the time, and what they brought in

proctor, linebrink, gagne, mahay—relievers were all the rage. and since Dotel was a “closer”, we should have been brought in a somewhat decent bounty. If we are looking at present value, I would agree that we should remove Dotel, but perhaps add Burgos, as he still has some upside.

As for your other question, Gathright and Gload have almost no value, unless you think being a 4th or 5th outfielder on a 100 loss team is valuable. Gathright has value to a team that needs a pinch runner, but you’re not going to pull in any prospects with that sort of skillset.

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by marbotty on May 28, 2008 11:56 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

All the rage

Yes, relievers are going to get traded to contenders every summer. And every year the take gets smaller and smaller as teams value young, cheap players and top prospects more and more. Gagne was pitching great and had a history of being an elite closer. You are overvaluing Dotel wildly and bizarrely. I think Moore took the best offer he got. Dotel had significant strikes against him at least including the frequent injuries (including in that season) and the fact that he hadn’t been a lights out closer in that season.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 28, 2008 12:16 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

by the way

Howell could very well be our 3rd best starter if we had him on the team. Look at his K/9 last year, and factor in the difference between tropicana and kauffman, and his numbers would look very good.

I think he is a typical, late developing lefty.

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by marbotty on May 28, 2008 12:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I just want to agree here

I think that Gathright-for-Howell was a mistake.

That is all.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on May 28, 2008 12:08 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I thought so at the time

But Howell’s persistent failures kind of lead me to the conclusion that he really wasn’t much of a prospect. Probably could have gotten something better for him though.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 28, 2008 12:17 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

How much persistent failure as a starter do you need?

The guy just keeps failing as a starter. If the Royals had an open rotation spot, I’d certainly give a guy like Howell a shot, but I wouldn’t expect anything (just like with DLR).

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 28, 2008 12:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

he's only had a year's worth of starts

or a little over 1/3 the number greinke’s had, despite being about the same age

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by marbotty on May 28, 2008 12:25 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

If only he had Greinke-like talent

Instead, I think he has more DLR-like talent…and results.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 28, 2008 12:27 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

from baseball prospectus 2006

“Scouts compare him to Greinke for his ability to throw strikes with four pitches and change speeds on all of them.”

from baseball prospectus 2007
“That Tampa was able to acquire Howell for Joey Gathright and Fernando Cortez was pretty amazing. Perhaps Howell can slide in behind Kazmir for the next few years; he has nothing left to prove at Triple-A..”

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by marbotty on May 28, 2008 12:42 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Neither his stuff nor his control is at Greinke's level. Not particularly close.

You can see that by watching him and I think his performance has proved that as well.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 28, 2008 12:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I like Howell a lot

Really disappointed we gave up on him, and even more disappointed it was for a light hitting speedster like Gathright. I think you’re right, he’ll be a late-developer, probably a middle to back of the rotation guy, but a solid starter, while Gathright will never be more than a 4th OF.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 28, 2008 12:41 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I think Howell's days as a starter are over

The Rays understandably got fed up with his consistent failure as a SP. Now he’s in the bullpen where he’ll likely stay with the exception of some spot starts. He’s just not a starter.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 28, 2008 12:48 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

And I think Howell has shown that he's not one of them

We’ll agree to disagree.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 28, 2008 12:59 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

He's not going to start in front of Kazmir, Shields, Garza, or Sonnanstine

Edwin Jackson has a 3.47 ERA. That is five, plus Jason Hammel filled in adequately when Kazmir was hurt and Jeff Niemann and Mitch Talbot are marking time in Durham until another spot opens up. Davis, McGee, and Price are not too far behind them. The Rays are stacked with major league ready starting pitching with higher upsides than Howell, so he is the odd man out right now.

by Gopherballs on May 28, 2008 1:11 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

He's the odd man out

And I think that has as much to do with him, his skills and performance as it has to do with the other pitchers.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 28, 2008 1:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

He's a 4th or 5th starter on a team with 5 or 6 pitchers good enough to be 3rd starters or better

David DeJesus is still a league average centerfielder even though he would be a fourth outfielder on the Red Sox.

by Gopherballs on May 28, 2008 1:55 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't know if Howell

could end up starting, but I recall that the knock on him starting was that he simply didn’t have enough velocity/command of his fastball, so hitters could sit on that and just watch his pretty curveball go by. Obviously, he hasn’t had much problems with that in relief.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on May 28, 2008 2:02 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, his 4 walks per 9 innings as a starter were a significant problem

...and a problem which can’t be blamed on his defense.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 28, 2008 2:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I thought the scouting report

was hinting at the abnormally high hits per nine. I know the Tampa defense has been bad, but Howell’s BABIPs have run very high throughout his ML career.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on May 28, 2008 2:21 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I was responding to the walks as "significant problem" misstatement

His BABIP his rookie year in KC was a normal .298. The next two years behind terrible defenses, it was .357 and .391. Now behind a good defense, it is .250 (which he will not sustain).

Tampa Bay’s awful bullpen in 2007 also contributed to the problem—his LOB% was an unsustainable 58.7%.

by Gopherballs on May 28, 2008 2:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The flip side of his rookie

year BABIP seems to have been his high walk rate…what a weird career so far.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on May 28, 2008 2:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

He is indeed an odd one

He seemed to get the walks generally under control at the time he started pitching for a team playing BJ Upton, Ty Wigginton, and Brendan Harris up the middle (not to mention Delmon “Crop Circles” Young spending time in CF).

Again, Howell is no prize, but he could be a decent back of the rotation option for a team without the Rays’ depth. Although different type of pitchers, he might be their version of Tomko.

by Gopherballs on May 28, 2008 2:48 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Wow, that went wildly over the top

The Rays have 5 or 6 pitchers good enough to be 3rd starters or better? Certainly not Sonnanstine or Hammel. And if you look beyond this year’s 1/3 of a season, definitely not Jackson. So Howell is slotted behind some clearly below average SP’s.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 28, 2008 2:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You are grossly underestimating the Rays pitchers

Sonnanstine is only 25 and right now is a better pitcher than Bannister. Jackson is only 24, a favorite of scouts, and is starting to put it together. Niemann is a good prospect who is essentially major league ready and projects as a middle of the rotation arm. With Kazmir, Shields, and Garza, that is five or six pitchers who are good enough to be 3rd starters or better.

by Gopherballs on May 28, 2008 2:21 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

And I think you are overestimating some of them by a lot

Sonnanstine isn’t better than Bannister and never has been. Jackson has been a scout favorite for a long time and has perpetually failed. Niemann is a good prospect. So was Jackson once…and Brian Rose…and Todd Van Poppel.

Basically they have five or six pitchers who you think will be 3rd starters or better. But of course Sonnanstine, Jackson, Hammel and Niemann have ever performed at that level. So, again, Howell is slotted behind some below average pitchers.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 28, 2008 2:27 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Jeezus

Brian Rose…

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on May 28, 2008 2:30 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Didn't mean to hit a sore spot

He’s always one of the guys that pop into my mind when I think of “future top of the rotation starter lock” prospects who failed.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 28, 2008 2:35 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No sore spot

just an amazing blast from the past. I remember how great that guy was supposed to be…yeah, that worked out.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on May 28, 2008 2:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Baseball history is littered with many, many

Great pitching prospects who turned into absolutely nothing in the majors.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 28, 2008 2:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Naturally.

TINSTAAP, after all.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on May 28, 2008 2:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

They are similar if you completely disregard runs allowed

...which I think is a mistake.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 28, 2008 2:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You seem to...

disregard them when it comes to Tomko.

by djk royal on May 28, 2008 2:50 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No, I don't. I take it into consideration in addition to ERA

If I were going strictly by peripherals and defense independent stats, I’d say that Tomko is pitching like a #2 SP. And I’m definitely not saying that. As Gopherballs does, I see the true Tomko somewhere in between his FIP and his ERA. ERA must be taken into account.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 28, 2008 2:57 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

2008: Sonnanstine 4.98 ERA, Bannister 4.97 ERA

The runs allowed have been the same once the worst defense in recent major league history and Bannister’s 2007 BABIP are removed from the equation.

by Gopherballs on May 28, 2008 2:53 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

As I said, similar (this year)

We’ll see where they go from here.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on