Big Billy?

by Billybutlerformvp on May 7, 2008 3:37 PM EDT Comment 46 comments

For people worrying about the Billy Butlers nonexistent power swing I urge you to look at one of the greatest dhs in history. Billy Butler is traveling down the path of the legendary David Ortiz..

At the tender age of 21 David Ortiz put up a line that looks something like this

SEASON	TEAM	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1997	Min	15	49	10	16	3	0	1	6	2	19	0	0	.327	.353	.449	.802
1998	Min	86	278	47	77	20	0	9	46	39	72	1	0	.277	.371	.446	.817

2000

Min

130

415

117

.282

.364

.446

.810

2002

Min

125

412

112

.272

.339

.500

.839

2007

Bos

149

549

116

182

117

111

103

.332

.445

.621

1.066

If you look at Billy Butler his rookie season looks startling similar to that of Ortiz.

SEASON	TEAM	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2007	KC	92	329	38	96	23	2	8	52	27	55	0	0	.292	.347	.447	.794

Based on the fifth of the current season that has gone by I think we all believe that Billy will have a year similar to Ortiz's 2000 season. Next season Butler will grow and will be on pace with Ortizs 02 stats where he slow gains more power of course hits for a higher average. Finally by the time Butler is 25 or 26 yrs old he will emerge as a force for the royals putting up numbers similar to ortizs 07. Hitting for a high average in the 330s and hitting 30 hrs year after year. I just dont want Butler to be sent down when hes not regressing hes simply growing and will continue to learn and develop and soon he will be that force that we all know he can be and I dont want to see him become a force for another team.

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So the book isn't closed on Butler after one month?

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 7, 2008 3:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Iam just saying hes following in the footsteps of a

legendary player and that ppl should expect butler to hit 330 with 30hrs, and 100rbis a season once he fully matures

by Billybutlerformvp on May 7, 2008 3:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

And what I'm trying to get at is that you shouldn't give up on Teahen so soon either

...particularly when one of the data points one should consider is his high-power 2006 season.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 7, 2008 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

look at his minor league numbers...

he’s got about 2500 at bats with his current production in the minors and the majors and about 250 at his post recall 2006 level. excuse me if im not holding my breath for that fluke to reappear.

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on May 7, 2008 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Have you actually looked at his minor league numbers?

“2500 at bats with his current production” So his .526 SLG in A-ball, his .543 SLG in AAA and his .447 SLG AAA season are all meaningless?

Again, none of those things prove that he’ll have more power, but they are all data points, as well as some minor league seasons with less power. 2006 is a data point as well, as is 2007. And one month of 2008 is a small data point too. While I know fans like to jump to conclusions, we don’t yet know for sure how much power Teahen has.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 7, 2008 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

those were all small sample sizes....

overall, his milb slugging is 429…terrible corner OF production

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on May 7, 2008 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have this feeling that billybeingbilly = billybutlerformvp

Think we should sign Bonds too? lmao

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 7, 2008 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

not the same person...

however, i dont think it would hurt us to sign bonds…if by chance we are competing (unlikely)he’d held tremendously. however, what i dont think could be disputed is the effect he could have on our young hitters plate discipline….not to mention take alot of pressure off of them while they develop this year and put them in situations where they can succeed b/c he’ll always be on base.

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on May 7, 2008 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

iam likin this guy

by Billybutlerformvp on May 7, 2008 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You are this guy

Same opinions. Same “analysis”

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 7, 2008 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

fraid not my friend

different ip addresses/

by Billybutlerformvp on May 7, 2008 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can't be disputed?

what i dont think could be disputed is the effect he could have on our young hitters plate discipline

The mere presence of Bonds will help the plate discipline of other players? Yeah, I can dispute that because it is nonsense. Do you have any support for that odd assertion whatsoever?

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 7, 2008 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you've never heard of...

someone learning b/c someone leads by example? No belief that Riske and Bannister have had any effect on Zack? Bonds is a hitting genius…that in no way can hurt Gordo and Billy Butler

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on May 7, 2008 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Have you heard of Bonds teaching/tutoring/mentoring any player, ever?

He’s just not that kind of guy. And I think that kind of teaching or leading by example usually just doesn’t happen. When a player comes to a team, the other players don’t suddenly start hitting like that player or change their approach to be like that player.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 7, 2008 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

they give each other advice

sweeny gave butler advice.not like it never happens. than again crazier things have happened like teahen hitting 50hrs this season

by Billybutlerformvp on May 7, 2008 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That was a fluke.

He has followed that up wit ha disappointing 07 and is doing the same so far in 08. What proof can you show me that he is turning it around ?? hes a punching judy high obp kind of guy nothing more.

by Billybutlerformvp on May 7, 2008 4:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I get it. It's a fluke because you say it is.

So he has a high power 2006 and then a low power 2007. And one low power month in 2008 decides the matter? Your certitude is misplaced, unsupported and pretty funny. I’m not saying he’s definitely going to be a good power hitter or even a mediocre power hitter. I’m saying we don’t know yet. Knee-jerk reactions aren’t worth much.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 7, 2008 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i really think that your hope for...

him developing into a decent power hitter is far more misplaced than those of us who have given up on him developing that skill. I have no problem with teahen on this team if he can continue to take his walks, get his share of doubles, play good defense in right field, run the bases well, etc. id love to put him in the leadoff spot to take advantage of his skills. However, his skills, outside of 3-4 months in 2006 have never been those of a 3 hitter and its highly likely they never will.

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on May 7, 2008 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think those who think it is all certain and decided now are jumping to conclusions, period

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 7, 2008 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

its not CERTAIN...

nothing is. I said it is highly unlikely. Hell, it is possible that David Eckstein could break out and lead the league in Homers next year. Not gonna hold my breath on that one. 2500 ABs is enough for me to feel pretty confident about what teahen is…and im comfortable with what he is…just not what the royals seem to think he is.

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on May 7, 2008 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"what the royals seem to think he is"?

They are giving him a chance to prove himself. He’s by far the best option available. What makes you think you know how the Royals think of him? What should they be doing with him? Benching him for Costa? DFA’ing him? Boy, when the team loses a few games, the “this organization/team/GM/front office sucks!” people really come out of the woodwork.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 7, 2008 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

actually bonds is the best but not in your mediocore view.

ya know its because of fans like you the royals got this bad.

by Billybutlerformvp on May 7, 2008 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

im not anti moore really at all....

hillman im not at all sold on…teahen batting in the 3 hole is awful for a major league baseball team. teahen/ddj should be 1/2 in whatever order you choose. billy should be 3rd, gordo/jose 4/5 and go with whatever from there. tpj should never get more than 10 abs/week.

you’re completely skewing what ive said about teahen. nothing has been at all negative unless you consider me thinking he’s not a 3 hitter negative. i listed of all of his positives a couple posts earlier…and there were quite a few.

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on May 7, 2008 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The optimal lineup

The optimal lineup roughly has decreasing OBP from the top to the bottom of the lineup. In short, OBP is more important closer to the top of the lineup than SLG, by a lot. Now, no team follows the optimal lineup. They follow a traditional lineup of best overall hitter at #3, best power hitter #4, etc. But I have no problem with having one of our highest OBP guys hitting third, particularly when there are very few guys on the team who are hitting well.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 7, 2008 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and it has been studied...

and shown that batting order really has little effect on anything. however, ideally, id like to have our high slg/lower OBPs at 3-4-5 which would be guillen, gordo and billy…following DDJ and teahen…thats a fairly decent top 5 while still lacking in power. my problem is that if were gonna keep teahen in the OF and batting 3rd, he’s GOT TO develop more than 7-10 HR power which i see as extremely unlikely

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on May 7, 2008 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Indeed, batting order means very little

however, ideally, id like to have our high slg/lower OBPs at 3-4-5 which would be guillen, gordo and billy…following DDJ and teahen…thats a fairly decent top 5 while still lacking in power.

So what you’re saying is that batting order means very little, but you’d still like to optimize the benefit of the batting order. I agree. Therefore, we should go with the optimal lineup, or as close to it as possible. There’s a reason the optimal lineup has the highest OBP guys at the top. It’s because it leads to more run scoring. So I have no problem with having guys like DeJesus and Teahen somewhere in the top 3 with lower OBP, more power guys behind them. It will lead to the most runs.

my problem is that if were gonna keep teahen in the OF and batting 3rd, he’s GOT TO develop more than 7-10 HR power which i see as extremely unlikely

I have a feeling that Teahen will be the #3 batter in the lineup when it makes sense for personnel we have. Right now, he makes about as much sense as any of them. I have no problem with one of our corner OFers (in 2008 and in the future) having a league average OPS for his position, with that OPS heavy in a high OBP with plus baserunning, plus range and a plus arm. I think all of the above is likely.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 7, 2008 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

In fairness

Teahen didn’t exactly have a high-powered 2006—he had a high-powered three months in 2006. People forget that before we shipped Teahen back down to Omaha, he was awful. Teahen’s rookie year was also very low power. So what you have is all of 2005, part of 2006, all of 2007, and 2008 so far which would say that Teahen is not much of a power hitter versus a three-month or so span of 2006 which would say he was. It would seem the latter is more of an outlier than any of the other seasons.

I know this post makes me sound anti-Teahen, and I’m not. But I would like to think that what I am saying here isn’t “knee-jerk,” but rather a conclusion borne out from the statistical lines that Teahen has produced in his decent career as a Royal.

by DarthYoshi on May 7, 2008 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hes also 27 butler is 22 most

21-22 yr olds are just getting out of college so if anyone deserves more time its not teahen.

by Billybutlerformvp on May 7, 2008 4:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Do the facts matter to you at all?

First I think you said Teahen was 28. Now you’re saying that he’s 27. In reality he’s 26. You might want to look into reality. You’d find it interesting.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 7, 2008 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you win he is 26. I thought he was 27

by Billybutlerformvp on May 7, 2008 4:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

So tell me nyroyals how do you see butler

and teahen projecting for this season and beyond???

by Billybutlerformvp on May 7, 2008 4:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ok

Teahen .290/.360/.445
Butler .300/.350/.455

I see Teahen plateauing for the next handful of years and Butler improving both OBP and power.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 7, 2008 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ok....

so are you just arguing with us for arguments sake then? B/C an ISO of 155 is nothing at all of a power hitter

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on May 7, 2008 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Um, I don't think I said at any point that he's a power hitter

I think it is quite likely that he’ll show more power than he’s shown so far this season. I don’t give a damn what his Isolated Power is. If he can maintain a league average OPS for his position which is heavy on the most important element of OPS (OBP), then I’m happy to have him and his plus defense in a corner OF position.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 7, 2008 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

last year....

among qualified OFs…which includes CF, teahen was 21st out of 33 in OPS. Thats not good.

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on May 7, 2008 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Indeed. And he was better than that in 2006

I think the real Teahen which we will see going forward is in between there. My opinion/prediction for him is above.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 7, 2008 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the problem is that your prediction still puts him...

below average for all OFs and way below for corner OFs

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on May 7, 2008 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It puts him roughly average for corner OFers, particularly when you park and league normalize the OPS

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 7, 2008 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

certainly not a plus in lf

by Billybutlerformvp on May 7, 2008 4:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Because he had a little difficulty transitioning to LF for one month?

He had the same difficulty making the transition to RF for the first month last year. The reads are different. He’s a plus defensive cOFer, period.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 7, 2008 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

im a strong advocate of not ever playing Teahen in the OF during day games...

for some reason he’s just awful at reading balls in the blue sky and sun. no problems with him at other times. these rare day games can be used as games where billy or gordo can get a day off or DH which is necessary anyways.

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on May 7, 2008 4:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not to get into the thick of things

but don’t you think this is a little rash? 1) He’s still learning the position; 2) who would be better to play; 3) I be interested how these mistakes would be quantified; I’m just guessing, but I don’t think Teahen’s mistakes on defensive in day games are going to cost the Royals the wild card this year.

Sorry for the somewhat sarcastic tone, there, but while I’m not as high on Teahen as I used to me, I just don’t get the point in sitting him when there aren’t better options.

Hope is not a strategy. And neither is playing Tony Pena every day. (Rany Jazayerli)

by devil_fingers on May 7, 2008 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ny royals the whole point of this post was

to get people thinking about if billy butler can eventually put up #s like ortiz did last yr. not so much for the debate about wheter or not teahen can hit for power and by power i mean 10 hrs…

by Billybutlerformvp on May 7, 2008 7:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I know what your point was. And I know what my point was too. Sometimes the comments go in a different direction from the original post. Such is life.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 7, 2008 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

man

these new kids aren’t used to the one and only NYRoyal.

and to fan the flames… as I look over the thread as a whole, NY seems to have much better arguments. too many of the opposing comments seem to be blindly optimistic, which is great for royals fans, but bad for debating.

by ZeppelinDZ on May 8, 2008 12:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs