Los Angeles @ Kansas City GameThread, May 7, 2008 8:10 PM EDT

Game 33 Open Thread - Angels (22-13) at Royals (14-18)

by royalsreview on May 7, 2008 7:00 PM EDT in Events

Los Angeles @ Kansas City

I'm just going to say it: I don't think the Royals are getting back to .500 this year. Since starting the season 6-2 they've wheeled off the tracks, going 8-16. Just to get to, say, 40-40, the Royals would need to go 26-22 over the next five weeks, and I'm unable to confidently imagine that scenario. Yes, the offense will improve, but it's not clear exactly just what level it's going to improve to. Sure, when basically everyone is struggling, eight collective baby steps become a jump (or something), but that improvement is going to need to overcome a similar downturn from the pitching staff, a downturn that has actually already started. It's been eight years since I've been able to do math like this, but if someone wants to run the numbers on the odds of a .450 ballclub (which is what I feel like this team is) going 26-22, then please post the results below.

Tonight, it's one of the few remaining bright spots, Zack Greinke (3-1, 1.47 ERA) going up against He Went to Jered Weaver (2-4, 4.36). Jered, the Galleria of Weavers. According to VORP Greinke has been the best pitcher in the American League.

One final note... On May 21against the Astros, one day after hitting his first career big league homer, Justin Huber went 1-1, raising his season line to .385/.385/.692. Since then, in 17 scattered plate appearances, Huber has hit .000/.176/.000, lowering his season line to .185/.267/.333. That's what happens when you are a part-time player and then you endure an 0-15 stretch. Still, the Padres have given him six starts on the season, which is actually a little more than I expected to see, and may signal some basic confidence or comfort they have in or with him. I don't know. Consider this blurb your basic effort at a reverse jinx... we still love you Justin!

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first!

haha

by royalsreview on May 7, 2008 7:01 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

according to this online caculator

if the royals are a .450 team, the odds of them going 26-22 (or better) during the next 48 games is about 12-13%

by royalsreview on May 7, 2008 7:02 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

link

http://faculty.vassar.edu/lowry/binomialX.html

by royalsreview on May 7, 2008 7:02 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

if you make the royals a .490 team

they have about a 28% chance of getting to 40-40 (or better), which still is pretty low

by royalsreview on May 7, 2008 7:04 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Thoughts

Will, you had to know you’d catch my attention with that.

First of all —you missed the sweet spot. The cumulative binomial (what you’re calculating) in this case is a balance of being super lucky over a short period of time (if you’re a .450 club, it’s less likely you’ll get hot and win the next four in a row than you are to pick up 4 games over, say, six games by going 5-1) vs. being mildly lucky over a long period of time (asking a .450 team to play .540 ball -- which is what 26-22 is - is a lot more likely to occur over the span of 10 games than it is over 50). Playing with the numbers you can find that the sweet spot is going 17-13 or better, with a staggering 13.56% likelihood of happening.

Second of all - of course, all of this is a really really rough approximation, since we all know that each game is a) not independent of the prior games, mentally, and b) doesn’t have the same p in each trial. I think the effect of the differing p’s depending on opponents is exacerbated in this small-ish sample you’re analyzing, when you’re looking for rather small streaks that could get you to reach your milestone and that are heavily dependent upon opponent. But yeah, that’s nice as a very rough approximation.

Anyways… yeah… the Cornell stats site is actually pretty good, with tools like that and a solid textbook-like bit of information. Me likey.

by wentToARoyalsGameBeforeRR on May 7, 2008 9:46 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

interesting

very interesting… i guess it makes sense that a short burst of good play is more likely than doing it overa longer period, even though it requires a higher winning percentage…

the sad thing is, back in the day I could probably do these things by hand
not anymore

by royalsreview on May 7, 2008 10:33 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Wow

I can’t even figure out how to start using that…

by mazoboom on May 7, 2008 8:33 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

2nd

predictions for tonights game?? i say butler breaks out has a multi hit game royals lose 4-2

by Billybutlerformvp on May 7, 2008 7:02 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

greinke loses a shutout late... similar to the toronto start

by royalsreview on May 7, 2008 7:03 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Didn't take long for many/most of the fans to give up on this team

Patience is a lost art among sports fans.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 7, 2008 7:05 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

i bet bonds would hit a game winning hr

grienke would get the win 1-0

by Billybutlerformvp on May 7, 2008 7:27 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

I bet Bonds would hit a home run every time he came up to the plate

And he would lead by example, so every other player would hit home runs too.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 7, 2008 7:28 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

you cant argue hitters would see better

pitches to hit in front of bonds.plus i note for all your smugness bonds did out hr the entire royals outfield last season.

by Billybutlerformvp on May 7, 2008 7:48 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

So we can give up on the 2008 Royals now...but definitely not on Justin Huber

I’m sure he’s turning the corner any day now. Never lose the faith.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 7, 2008 7:11 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

individuals are easier to believe in

and, although it may not hold up logically, it seems more likely that one guy could proverbially turn it around easier than a roster of 25 that has 18 guys sucking hard…

by royalsreview on May 7, 2008 7:42 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

You're right

It doesn’t hold up logically ;) This team’s offense won’t have to turn it around too much to get back to .500. They just have to get to mediocre. That really isn’t too difficult.

And I find it somewhat amazing that anyone “believes in” Huber. There’s really no reason to. It’s not like he was particularly impressive at AAA. An .850 OPS from a guy at a corner position in the PCL. Is that even average for that position in that league?

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 7, 2008 7:46 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

totally

I wouldn’t say I believe in him either. Just rooting for.

I’m actually surprised the Padres have given him as many ABs as they have…

by royalsreview on May 7, 2008 7:52 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

You guys think we'll get the game in?

How’s the weather over there?

Howie drinks your milkshake! He drinks it up!

by ReggieBullits on May 7, 2008 7:18 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

i expect delays

but a game

by royalsreview on May 7, 2008 7:41 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Am I the only one here for the start of this game?

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 7, 2008 8:11 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

I'm here...

though I’ll be in and out throughout, depending on how my video editing goes

by RoyalsFanInBillings on May 7, 2008 8:18 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

yes

by Billybutlerformvp on May 7, 2008 8:13 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

If I were you, I'd boycott the team until they sign Bonds

They clearly aren’t committed to winning, so why should you be committed to them?

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 7, 2008 8:16 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

i'm here

but not for long

by royalsreview on May 7, 2008 8:20 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

Zack is out of wack and this strikezone isnt helping

winning records follow good bullpens

by slayor on May 7, 2008 8:21 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

let's go zack

by royalsreview on May 7, 2008 8:21 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

Thanks Vlad

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 7, 2008 8:22 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

Yikes, 27 pitches

And yet the only hit a blooper.

winning records follow good bullpens

by slayor on May 7, 2008 8:23 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

He'll settle down in the 2nd

Disclaimer: Comments may not be suitable for young children or women who are pregnant, or women who think they may be pregnant. Side effects could include nausea, dizziness, or yelling at the monitor in disbelief.

by MileHighKCfan on May 7, 2008 8:24 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

I hope so

Unfortunately that kind of screws his chances of pitching deep

winning records follow good bullpens

by slayor on May 7, 2008 8:24 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

thanks Vladdie

Hmm… this guy has walked two batters, not counting me, who swings at everything. I know… lets RUN!!

by royalsreview on May 7, 2008 8:26 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

Hillman pulls out a notepad

he needs to remember that brilliant decision by VG.

by royalsreview on May 7, 2008 8:26 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

I know i've bropught it up before

but i think Jarod/Jarred/Jered is a really ugly name

it annoys me

by royalsreview on May 7, 2008 8:30 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

Weaver is an extreme fly ball pitcher

so hopefully tonight we will see a few balls flying over the heads of the Angels’ outfield. The bonus is that Anderson and Vlad are playing the corners, with Matthews - a lousy centerfielder but decent in the corners - as DH.

by Gopherballs on May 7, 2008 8:32 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

There's one

Good to see Butler driving hte ball again

winning records follow good bullpens

by slayor on May 7, 2008 8:35 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

royal pride

billys first double in ages, at least it feels like it

by royalsreview on May 7, 2008 8:36 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Billy

Orcs are often portrayed as misshapen humanoids with brutal, warmongering, sadistic, yet cowardly tendencies, although some settings and writers describe them as a proud warrior race with a strong sense of honor. They are variously portrayed as physically stronger or weaker than humans, but always high in numbers. They often ride wolves or wargs. In many role-playing and computer games, though not in Tolkien’s works, Orcs have green skin (earning the name “Greenskins” in such games) and have faces that resemble a cross between a pig and a porpoise.