Game 33 Open Thread - Angels (22-13) at Royals (14-18)
Los Angeles @ Kansas City
I'm just going to say it: I don't think the Royals are getting back to .500 this year. Since starting the season 6-2 they've wheeled off the tracks, going 8-16. Just to get to, say, 40-40, the Royals would need to go 26-22 over the next five weeks, and I'm unable to confidently imagine that scenario. Yes, the offense will improve, but it's not clear exactly just what level it's going to improve to. Sure, when basically everyone is struggling, eight collective baby steps become a jump (or something), but that improvement is going to need to overcome a similar downturn from the pitching staff, a downturn that has actually already started. It's been eight years since I've been able to do math like this, but if someone wants to run the numbers on the odds of a .450 ballclub (which is what I feel like this team is) going 26-22, then please post the results below.
Tonight, it's one of the few remaining bright spots, Zack Greinke (3-1, 1.47 ERA) going up against He Went to Jered Weaver (2-4, 4.36). Jered, the Galleria of Weavers. According to VORP Greinke has been the best pitcher in the American League.
One final note... On May 21against the Astros, one day after hitting his first career big league homer, Justin Huber went 1-1, raising his season line to .385/.385/.692. Since then, in 17 scattered plate appearances, Huber has hit .000/.176/.000, lowering his season line to .185/.267/.333. That's what happens when you are a part-time player and then you endure an 0-15 stretch. Still, the Padres have given him six starts on the season, which is actually a little more than I expected to see, and may signal some basic confidence or comfort they have in or with him. I don't know. Consider this blurb your basic effort at a reverse jinx... we still love you Justin!
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according to this online caculator
if the royals are a .450 team, the odds of them going 26-22 (or better) during the next 48 games is about 12-13%
by royalsreview on
May 7, 2008 7:02 PM EDT
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if you make the royals a .490 team
they have about a 28% chance of getting to 40-40 (or better), which still is pretty low
by royalsreview on
May 7, 2008 7:04 PM EDT
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Thoughts
Will, you had to know you’d catch my attention with that.
First of all —you missed the sweet spot. The cumulative binomial (what you’re calculating) in this case is a balance of being super lucky over a short period of time (if you’re a .450 club, it’s less likely you’ll get hot and win the next four in a row than you are to pick up 4 games over, say, six games by going 5-1) vs. being mildly lucky over a long period of time (asking a .450 team to play .540 ball -- which is what 26-22 is - is a lot more likely to occur over the span of 10 games than it is over 50). Playing with the numbers you can find that the sweet spot is going 17-13 or better, with a staggering 13.56% likelihood of happening.
Second of all - of course, all of this is a really really rough approximation, since we all know that each game is a) not independent of the prior games, mentally, and b) doesn’t have the same p in each trial. I think the effect of the differing p’s depending on opponents is exacerbated in this small-ish sample you’re analyzing, when you’re looking for rather small streaks that could get you to reach your milestone and that are heavily dependent upon opponent. But yeah, that’s nice as a very rough approximation.
Anyways… yeah… the Cornell stats site is actually pretty good, with tools like that and a solid textbook-like bit of information. Me likey.
by wentToARoyalsGameBeforeRR on
May 7, 2008 9:46 PM EDT
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interesting
very interesting… i guess it makes sense that a short burst of good play is more likely than doing it overa longer period, even though it requires a higher winning percentage…
the sad thing is, back in the day I could probably do these things by hand
not anymore
by royalsreview on
May 7, 2008 10:33 PM EDT
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Wow
I can’t even figure out how to start using that…
by mazoboom on
May 7, 2008 8:33 PM EDT
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2nd
predictions for tonights game?? i say butler breaks out has a multi hit game royals lose 4-2
by Billybutlerformvp on
May 7, 2008 7:02 PM EDT
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Didn't take long for many/most of the fans to give up on this team
Patience is a lost art among sports fans.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 7, 2008 7:05 PM EDT
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i bet bonds would hit a game winning hr
grienke would get the win 1-0
by Billybutlerformvp on
May 7, 2008 7:27 PM EDT
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I bet Bonds would hit a home run every time he came up to the plate
And he would lead by example, so every other player would hit home runs too.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 7, 2008 7:28 PM EDT
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you cant argue hitters would see better
pitches to hit in front of bonds.plus i note for all your smugness bonds did out hr the entire royals outfield last season.
by Billybutlerformvp on
May 7, 2008 7:48 PM EDT
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So we can give up on the 2008 Royals now...but definitely not on Justin Huber
I’m sure he’s turning the corner any day now. Never lose the faith.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 7, 2008 7:11 PM EDT
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individuals are easier to believe in
and, although it may not hold up logically, it seems more likely that one guy could proverbially turn it around easier than a roster of 25 that has 18 guys sucking hard…
by royalsreview on
May 7, 2008 7:42 PM EDT
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You're right
It doesn’t hold up logically ;) This team’s offense won’t have to turn it around too much to get back to .500. They just have to get to mediocre. That really isn’t too difficult.
And I find it somewhat amazing that anyone “believes in” Huber. There’s really no reason to. It’s not like he was particularly impressive at AAA. An .850 OPS from a guy at a corner position in the PCL. Is that even average for that position in that league?
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 7, 2008 7:46 PM EDT
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totally
I wouldn’t say I believe in him either. Just rooting for.
I’m actually surprised the Padres have given him as many ABs as they have…
by royalsreview on
May 7, 2008 7:52 PM EDT
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You guys think we'll get the game in?
How’s the weather over there?
Howie drinks your milkshake! He drinks it up!
by ReggieBullits on
May 7, 2008 7:18 PM EDT
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Am I the only one here for the start of this game?
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 7, 2008 8:11 PM EDT
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I'm here...
though I’ll be in and out throughout, depending on how my video editing goes
by RoyalsFanInBillings on
May 7, 2008 8:18 PM EDT
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If I were you, I'd boycott the team until they sign Bonds
They clearly aren’t committed to winning, so why should you be committed to them?
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 7, 2008 8:16 PM EDT
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Zack is out of wack and this strikezone isnt helping
winning records follow good bullpens
by slayor on
May 7, 2008 8:21 PM EDT
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Yikes, 27 pitches
And yet the only hit a blooper.
winning records follow good bullpens
by slayor on
May 7, 2008 8:23 PM EDT
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He'll settle down in the 2nd
Disclaimer: Comments may not be suitable for young children or women who are pregnant, or women who think they may be pregnant. Side effects could include nausea, dizziness, or yelling at the monitor in disbelief.
by MileHighKCfan on
May 7, 2008 8:24 PM EDT
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I hope so
Unfortunately that kind of screws his chances of pitching deep
winning records follow good bullpens
by slayor on
May 7, 2008 8:24 PM EDT
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thanks Vladdie
Hmm… this guy has walked two batters, not counting me, who swings at everything. I know… lets RUN!!
by royalsreview on
May 7, 2008 8:26 PM EDT
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Hillman pulls out a notepad
he needs to remember that brilliant decision by VG.
by royalsreview on
May 7, 2008 8:26 PM EDT
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I know i've bropught it up before
but i think Jarod/Jarred/Jered is a really ugly name
it annoys me
by royalsreview on
May 7, 2008 8:30 PM EDT
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Weaver is an extreme fly ball pitcher
so hopefully tonight we will see a few balls flying over the heads of the Angels’ outfield. The bonus is that Anderson and Vlad are playing the corners, with Matthews - a lousy centerfielder but decent in the corners - as DH.
by Gopherballs on
May 7, 2008 8:32 PM EDT
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There's one
Good to see Butler driving hte ball again
winning records follow good bullpens
by slayor on
May 7, 2008 8:35 PM EDT
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royal pride
billys first double in ages, at least it feels like it
by royalsreview on
May 7, 2008 8:36 PM EDT
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Billy
Orcs are often portrayed as misshapen humanoids with brutal, warmongering, sadistic, yet cowardly tendencies, although some settings and writers describe them as a proud warrior race with a strong sense of honor. They are variously portrayed as physically stronger or weaker than humans, but always high in numbers. They often ride wolves or wargs. In many role-playing and computer games, though not in Tolkien’s works, Orcs have green skin (earning the name “Greenskins” in such games) and have faces that resemble a cross between a pig and a porpoise.

by royalsreview on
May 7, 2008 8:35 PM EDT
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but he just singled.
so at least he’s an RBI orc.
by Sean O Se on
May 7, 2008 8:35 PM EDT
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Nice Billy! That's the power!
And that’s power with RISP!
by Eppenweb on
May 7, 2008 8:36 PM EDT
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go big billy
next time pull it a little more and make it easier on yourself
by AtTheWall on
May 7, 2008 8:36 PM EDT
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Billy Butler
clutch 2 out double
I’m glad to see someone can hit one over Toriiii’s head
Success is counted sweetest by those who ne'er succeed. - Emily Dickinson
by buddyball on
May 7, 2008 8:36 PM EDT
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has anyone looked at posts versus how well the royals are doing?
i wonder how fickle we are. it does seem like posts are a bit down as we fall four below 500.
by Sean O Se on
May 7, 2008 8:36 PM EDT
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yea... the little losing streaks really kill the relative # of comments etc
or, so it seems (i havent actually looked at the data, just observed casually)
by royalsreview on
May 7, 2008 8:37 PM EDT
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billy butler learned that from watching
old piazza and bonds clips
by Billybutlerformvp on
May 7, 2008 8:37 PM EDT
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Bonds would have homered
Probably would have put it on I-70
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 7, 2008 8:37 PM EDT
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gload would have scored on it
inside the park baby
all hustle
by royalsreview on
May 7, 2008 8:38 PM EDT
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and tpj
would have clunked it off the new jumbotron
by AtTheWall on
May 7, 2008 8:39 PM EDT
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Frank Thomas
would have caught the pitch with his bare hands, and in the same motion thrown it over the outfield wall from the plate.
by mazoboom on
May 7, 2008 8:41 PM EDT
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HBP, Three Balks
That’s Rooster Cogburn shit.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on
May 7, 2008 8:45 PM EDT
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and from talking with Huber
in Spring Training
Success is counted sweetest by those who ne'er succeed. - Emily Dickinson
by buddyball on
May 7, 2008 8:38 PM EDT
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Huber should be the new hitting coach
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 7, 2008 8:39 PM EDT
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I'm simultaneously watching Cliff Lee destroy the Yankees line up
He is pitching out of his mind. Absolutely insane. His control is some of the best I’ve seen ever in a big league game.
winning records follow good bullpens
by slayor on
May 7, 2008 8:39 PM EDT
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Greinke does not look good.
winning records follow good bullpens
by slayor on
May 7, 2008 8:41 PM EDT
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He doesn't have his best control
Velocity looks good. Hopefully he’ll get his best command back.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 7, 2008 8:42 PM EDT
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Yeah, he's throwing 95-97
Throwing a boatload of pitches tohugh
winning records follow good bullpens
by slayor on
May 7, 2008 8:44 PM EDT
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A lot of that is on McLelland
Tiny strike zone.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 7, 2008 8:45 PM EDT
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True that
Nice recovery here with back to back K’s. Hopefully he can put together some quick innings
winning records follow good bullpens
by slayor on
May 7, 2008 8:46 PM EDT
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He showed a lot better control to the last two batters
Fastballs coming in at 94-97 at the bottom of the strike zone, some painting the outside corner.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 7, 2008 8:46 PM EDT
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So, I was busy doing some stuff while half-watching the game
And I figured it was the fourth inning by now or something. YIKES.
Sarcasmâ„¢. It's the new gravy.
by jonfmorse on
May 7, 2008 8:43 PM EDT
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At this pace
this game will end at 12:30 EDT.
Sarcasmâ„¢. It's the new gravy.
by jonfmorse on
May 7, 2008 8:45 PM EDT
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guys dont get me started on what shawn green would do to that ball
MAJOR HOMERUN
by Billybutlerformvp on
May 7, 2008 8:45 PM EDT
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Eli Marrero
Would hit it much further… lets pursue him ?
A lot of you wont like me... by I assure you my opinion will be voiced GO ROYALS!
by focs on
May 7, 2008 8:46 PM EDT
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Nice.
2 K’s to end the inning by Michael Jordan.
by mazoboom on
May 7, 2008 8:46 PM EDT
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rosie odonnel might be available
she was in that movie league of our own.
by Billybutlerformvp on
May 7, 2008 8:48 PM EDT
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Show showed a nice power stroke
I think she’d have a high Isolated Power.
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 7, 2008 8:49 PM EDT
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Nice swing Jose
winning records follow good bullpens
by slayor on
May 7, 2008 8:49 PM EDT
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Nice Swing, 7 Grit.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on
May 7, 2008 8:50 PM EDT
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Is that Gloadie?
I probably disagree with you.
by NYRoyal on
May 7, 2008 8:51 PM EDT
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Gload fails miserably at advancing the runner
This will no doubt cost us a run
winning records follow good bullpens
by slayor on
May 7, 2008 8:51 PM EDT
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He Would Have
Bunted, But Trey wouldn’t let him.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on
May 7, 2008 8:52 PM EDT
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