Royals Confidence Index - Early May results

by NYRoyal on May 8, 2008 1:38 PM EDT

The Royals Confidence Index (RCI)* for early May 2008 is 6.43. Clearly we’re not happy with a sub-.500 start. This is a decrease from last month’s 6.99. There were some significant changes in a number of categories.

	Late Feb. 2008	Late Mar. 2008	Early May 2008	Change
Royals Confidence Index	6.97	6.99	6.43	-8%
1. Team	6.9	6.9	6.3	-9%
2. Pitching	7.6	7.1	8.0	13%
3. Hitting	5.4	5.6	3.7	-34%
4. Defense	7.4	7.1	6.9	-3%
5. Dayton Moore	8.1	8.3	7.8	-6%
6. Trey Hillman	7.1	7.6	5.8	-24%
7. Minor league system	5.7	5.8	5.6	-3%
8. Future	7.9	7.9	7.8	-1%

Predictably the confidence in the hitting dropped precipitously. Interestingly, our feelings on Trey Hillman have changed nearly as much, and not for the better. The only positive change was with pitching. As with last month, the greatest variance was seen in our opinions of Trey Hillman (standard deviation = 2.1). The least variance was with regard to our feelings on the Royals pitching (SD = 0.8).

A. In June, if all of the below are healthy, which pitchers would you like to see in the 4 and 5 spots in the Royals rotation?

Hochevar – 26 votes

Tomko – 11

Davies – 11

Soria – 4

Bale – 1

Maroth – 1 (really?)

Just about everyone is happy with keeping Hochevar in the rotation. There was a fair amount of support for both Tomko and Davies and almost none for Bale.

B. List the Royals players who you think will be traded this year.

Grudzielanek – 21.5 votes

German – 16.5

Gload – 6

Olivo – 6

Peralta – 5

Mahay – 4

Bale – 3

Gobble – 3

DeJesus – 2

Gathright – 2

Nunez – 2

Teahen – 2

Tomko – 2

Buck – 1

Berroa – 1

The only surprises for me were the wide variety and large number of players many of us think will be traded. The average number of players on the 25-man roster to be traded was just under 3, which I think is kind of high. Of course, it’s hard to say what Moore is thinking.

C. If you go to Kauffman Stadium and you can only eat one thing there (god forbid) what would it be?

Hot dog – 11 votes

BBQ – 4

Frosty malt – 3

Sausage – 3

Nachos – 2

Fries with goo – 2

Dippin Dots – 1

Beer – 1

Apparently you can’t beat the old favorite. But Gates BBQ got a lot of love.

So, the RCI has taken a step backwards. Here’s hoping that the bats wake up, Hillman gets a little less aggressive in “diversifying the offense” and the Royals get back to .500 this month. Maybe then the RCI can finally break the elusive 7 boundary.

* Without going into too much detail, the RCI is computed by taking each of the below averages, weighting them appropriately (the team number is weighted highest, then piching and hitting, then the rest) and crunching them into an overall average.

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Comments

nice table man...

I’m not sure why the defensive numbers are steadily dropping

discontent with Teahen?

by royalsreview on May 8, 2008 1:10 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

Defensive numbers

I would guess that those small changes are pretty much just randomness.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 8, 2008 1:21 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

I think the defense perception will go up and down with the team’s ascent or descent. If things are going well, we won’t remember defensive blunders as much. When they go poorly, we’ll see bad defense as part of the whole mess.

by mazoboom on May 8, 2008 1:59 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Agreed

And I think the true quality of the defense is the hardest thing for fans (including me) to evaluate. It’s common for players to make some really impressive plays look easy and to make some routine plays look difficult. And spectacuar plays and big mistakes tend to make a disproportionate impact in a fan’s memory.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 8, 2008 2:04 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

I know...

our defense started out strong but has slipped a little as the season went along. Here’s a neat article from Bradford Doolittle that talks about the Royals range. http://www.kansascity.com/sports/story/607031.html

Heres another take on it from Rany:

Early in the season I pointed out that the Royals ranked near the top of the league in defensive efficiency, despite no defensive upgrades that would explain such a ranking, and that the team’s defensive performance might be a fluke. Well, we have our answer: it was. The team’s Def-Eff is now .687, which ranks 3rd from the bottom in the majors, ahead of only the Pirates and Rangers. I didn’t believe the Royals top-five ranking was legitimate then, and I don’t believe their bottom-five ranking is legitimate now. The defense should do a better job of turning batted balls into outs as the season goes on, which means that we can expect the pitching staff to hold steady or possibly improve even as the weather warms up.

by djk royal on May 8, 2008 2:09 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

I do think...

the infield defense is strong. I like DDJ in center and think (hope) Teahen will continue to adjust to reading flyballs and improve. Guillen is really the only below average player defensively in my opinion.

by djk royal on May 8, 2008 2:10 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Guillen and perhaps Butler when he plays first

Although I’ve been pleasanty surprised with Butler’s D at 1B. Athough I still think he’s below average.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 8, 2008 2:13 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Definitely Butler...

I guess I was thinking of Gload as the 1st basemen. Butler has been surprisingly sure handed although making some poor judgements on when to go after a ball etc…

by djk royal on May 8, 2008 2:22 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

I think the hardest part about playing first base...

...is knowing when you shoudn’t go after a ball. That just comes with practice. Thankfully, he’s actualy getting more than a few games in the field now. And, despite how much I really don’t value Gload, he has been masterful in the field. Good range, great reaction time and he’s been picking the ball like crazy. I may be crazy, but I feel like he’s shown Gold Glove caliber defense this year. This is why I’d rather not trade him. If everything goes right, the Royals will acquire someone like Dunn or Burrell to play 1B next year. Neither of them are particularly gifted defensively. I’d love to have Gload on the team as a 1B defensive substitute, backup corner OFer and ok LH pinch hitter.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 8, 2008 2:26 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Not to turn this into a big...

argument I just wanted to get your thoughts on something. Dunn kind of worries me. Bill James talks about sluggers with old player skills (i.e. no secondary skills) declining rapidly and Dunn seems to be the poster boy for that type of profile. High slugging, Lots of walks and strikeouts and no speed or defense. I would hate to tie up a ton of cash for a long period of time for a player that may fall off a cliff. If he could continue to hit like he has the last few years great. I would just hate to get stuck with a Giambi 2.0.

by djk royal on May 8, 2008 2:31 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

It's a concern

The good news is that he’ll only be 29 next season. But if he peaks early like some with that skill set do, then he’s already on the downside. Since PECOTA appropriately takes this kind of thing into consideration, I’d be interested in what it thinks his next 5 years look like. But I don’t have time to check it right now.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 8, 2008 3:12 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

and teahen is not that great a defender and forced

guillen to compensate for his terrible lf play..

by Billybutlerformvp on May 8, 2008 1:30 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

Actually he's a good defensive corner OFer

Both the scouts and the defensive metrics agree on that.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 8, 2008 1:40 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

who wanted Maroth?

I love it

by royalsreview on May 8, 2008 1:37 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

Gopherballs

And this was after his release. He’s a free agent, so it’s doable.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 8, 2008 1:39 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

maybe the Cards will bring him back for another taste

by royalsreview on May 8, 2008 1:43 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Somebody might

Someone will overvalue a lefty starter. It’s just hard for anyone to convince themselves that he’s making progress on the road back. He got absolutely hammered over and over again in Omaha. There’s no harm in someone signing him to a minor league deal and waiting around to see if he finally looks like he’s figured something out.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 8, 2008 1:46 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Hillman

interesting that hillman is still over 5

I think I gave him a 2. Yea, the oitching staff has been good, but he’s been on auto-pilot there anyway. ...

by royalsreview on May 8, 2008 4:32 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

Hillman

His numbers were all over the place. Lots of high, low and middle numbers. I gave him a 3.5, but I haven’t quite gotten him figured out yet. I don’t think any of us really do quite yet.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 8, 2008 4:35 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Fire Hillman!!!!!

Disclaimer: Comments may not be suitable for young children or women who are pregnant, or women who think they may be pregnant. Side effects could include nausea, dizziness, or yelling at the monitor in disbelief.

by MileHighKCfan on May 8, 2008 5:31 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

I Don't Think

Hillman has his coaching staff in order yet. McClure probably stays, but everyone else could be gone before next year.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on May 10, 2008 12:28 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Some are his guys, some are not

I think Hillman brought in Rusty Kuntz. I’m sure some of the holdovers, like Barnett, will be gone next year.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 10, 2008 1:11 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Fire Hillman??? Wow, that is an early call.

I had June 10th in the pool before we would have heard that one.

Tell 'em a hookah smoking caterpillar
Has given you the call. "

by grudz96 on May 13, 2008 11:55 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

I think he was joking, so you're still alive in the pool

My date was in April, so I’ve already lost.

I probably disagree with you.

by NYRoyal on May 14, 2008 12:01 AM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

im not a big fan of firing a manager in the first season, but if he continues to run TPJ out there...

side note…i got lit into by an old spanish speaking lady while sitting in the third row behind home plate for telling tpj that he sucks at baseball in spanish

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on May 14, 2008 5:37 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs